May we all find a just peace one day.
Monday 25 December 2023
Where are you, Christmas?
Sometimes when I look out at the world I wonder who we are? I see only fighting and discord. This is the season where we should be coming together and working toward a better world. I am sending this message to all of those on the frontlines, both near and far, who are fighting for their homes.
May we all find a just peace one day.
May we all find a just peace one day.
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Alexei Navalny has been located in a penal colony located in the high Arctic. BBC
Took his people 600 enquiries to find him.
It sounds like Ukraine bagged another Russian war ship.
I wonder how long it takes to build one of those things?
"…600 inquiries…"
That suggests they were asking the Russian government to divulge his location some thirty times a day, including on weekends. I'm not sure that statistic tells us anything useful.
Well, I guess it would tell us that they are persistent and won't let Navalny just fade into the black hole of the Russian penal system.
Details of that ship that was destroyed:
Ukraine reportedly destroyed the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in Feodosia in occupied Crimea during the early hours of Dec. 26, Air Force Commander Mykola Oleshchuk announced.
"And the fleet in Russia is getting smaller and smaller," the post reads.
"This time, the large landing ship Novocherkask...Thanks to the Air Force pilots and everyone involved!"
Earlier tonight, at around 3 a.m. local time, explosions were reported in the area of Feodosia. A ship with Iranian ammunition was reportedly blown up and a fire broke out in the port.
According to Russian-affiliated media, residents reported hearing loud bangs, and seeing plumes of smoke, and traffic on the Crimean bridge was blocked.
Sergey Aksenov, the head of Russian occupation authorities in Crimea, stated that "an enemy attack was carried out in the Feodosia area and the port area was cordoned off."
This port is located on the south eastern coast of Crimea.
According to Politico, the Biden administration has lost faith in Ukraine. They figure Russia will win the war; Ukraine will lose. And we need to start getting ready for that outcome. Time to get it over with, to surrender on behalf of Ukraine and move on to domestic American politics.
It sounds less like the Biden administration has lost faith in Ukraine as it has faced the reality that Republican intransigence may give Putin the win. Which is, sadly, a possibility.
Ukraine is doing its best to dig in and give Russia some very painful losses in the meantime. I wish them all the best in that endeavor.
As for the piss poor performance of Republicans, well I have already decided they will never get my vote again as long as they field Trump and his ilk for public office. Not much more I can do.
"It sounds less like the Biden administration…"
If we're getting into what 'it sounds like'… It actually 'sounded' to me like somebody within the Biden administration had decided to leak his (or her) own personal opinion as something already sold to Biden, probably in hopes of making it so via the expedient of publicizing it as already a done deal. (Personally, I don't think Biden would miss the obvious opportunity to back a Ukrainian insurrection against a Russian occupation should the Russians get lucky and overrun Ukraine's conventional forces.)
The State of Maine has declared Trump ineligible to run for President in their Republican primary. NBCNews
Michigan has declared Trump eligible. It sounds like this is all over the map and perfect for a Supreme Court ruling. So I am not getting my hopes up that this will solve the problem of Trump. The Sympreme Trumpkins will have the last word.
"Supreme"
Russia launched a massive airstrike against Ukraine using various missiles and drones. Apparently they are trying to encourage the efforts of Republicans to end aid from the United States as well as enact revenge for losing another ship.
I think even if Russia does succeed in overrunning Ukrainian positions they will stll not be done fighting.
"Michigan has declared Trump eligible."
But only for the Republican primary, so far anyway. Trump's eventual eligibility for the general election in Michigan remains an open, and still contested, question.
________________________________
"Russia launched a massive airstrike against Ukraine…"
Yeah, all that speculation 'bout just when Russia would run out of guidable ammunition turned out to be complete nonsense. They've proven themselves fully able to evade western sanctions and obtain the necessary western electronics. (On top of the drones the Iranians are supplying.)
But only for the Republican primary, so far anyway. Trump's eventual eligibility for the general election in Michigan remains an open, and still contested, question.
I think this is the same situation in Minnesota.
Yeah, all that speculation 'bout just when Russia would run out of guidable ammunition turned out to be complete nonsense.
This is possibly true. But if Russia cannot maintain that same level of attack for more than one day, then I would speculate that they have been saving up to be able to "shock and awe" the Ukrainians with a one time strike. But we will see.
Btw, those Russian wives and mothers who want their husbands or sons back alive are not really going away. They may prove tougher to deal with then Putin bargains for.
"But if Russia cannot maintain that same level of attack for
more than one day…"
Yeah, well, that spike in volume of fire may very well have been, probably was, retaliatory for the destruction of yet another Russian ship from their Black Sea Fleet (Russia's more prestigious naval fleet--they only have the two--the Black Sea and Arctic fleets).
The Ukrainians can't keep sinking Russian warships on a daily basis, so it's not to be expected that the Russians will feel the need to take such retaliatory measures every day. They will likely have the necessaries to keep up their intended brutal winter assault on Ukrainian civilians and civil infrastructure. And that's what I was referring to.
(The Ukrainians appear to have retaliated themselves, in an attack directed against Belograd, Russia.)
One development coming out of the western 'Ukraine fatigue' is that the Ukrainians now feel less constrained by a broad western timidity over hitting back at Russia in Russia. I've long felt that Ukraine needed to do more of that, but the Biden administration has been strongly set against it, as has Germany. And the Ukrainians need German and American support. Less support means the Ukrainians are more free to fight the way they need to fight. (But, unfortunately, with less support.)
It sounds like that Patriot Air Defense System may be quite useful in shooting down the Russian Kinzhal missiles. Ukraine is saying they shot down a number of them during a recent Russian attack.
Belgorad seems to be a favorite target for Ukraine. But I am not sure what did more damage there, the Ukrainians or the Russian defense system.
Explosions in Iran by the gravesite of Soleimani. 73 killed and many injured.
Who? Israel or internal opposition?
Meanwhile Mike Johnson is making a pilgrimage to the southern border. Because obviously there is nothing else of importance going on.
"Meanwhile Mike Johnson is making a pilgrimage to the
southern border."
Laying down a marker on the spot where they're gonna hold hostage support for Ukraine and Israel, but especially support for Ukraine.
________________________________
Ukraine hit in and around Belogrod, Russia again on Wednesday. Reuters
Laying down a marker on the spot where they're gonna hold hostage support for Ukraine and Israel, but especially support for Ukraine.
Well, maybe we need to give the Republicans what they want and show the American people again what they are really like when they control government.
Because I think the Dems need to make that clear before we slide down that horrible Trumpy slope in November.
Short of shooting migrants in boats, of course, which was one Trump administration official's idea.
"Well, maybe we need to give the Republicans what they
want…"
The Republicans have been engaged in some serious magical thinking. They want the migrants to magically disappear. No way to make that happen. (An unmanned 'wall' sure as Hell ain't gonna do it.)
The Berlin Wall had manned watchtowers (with searchlights and machine guns). The Great Wall of China had manned watchtowers (not enough towers; not often enough manned). Hadrian's Wall had manned 'turrets' (short towers) and was garrisoned behind the wall. (It also didn't work well enough.) Israel's Gaza confinement (fence in places, wall in other places) has just recently been proven to not work in the absence of being sufficiently manned.
The Republicans want an unmanned southern 'wall' to turn back the immigrant waves. Ain't gonna happen; waste of money.
________________________________
"President Vladimir Putin issued a decree on Thursday
allowing foreign nationals who fight for Russia in Ukraine to
obtain Russian citizenship for themselves and their families."
Reuter's
There have been previous hints that the Russians may be running out of convicts willing to serve in Ukraine.
"shooting migrants in boats"
The illegal immigrants using boats now? News to me.
Ukraine claims an air strike (piloted aircraft) against a Russian command center near Sevastopol. Big one it would appear. Reuters
There have been previous hints that the Russians may be running out of convicts willing to serve in Ukraine.
There have been hints that they have imported chumps...er...fighters from other countries.
The illegal immigrants using boats now? News to me.
I think he was referring to those who try to come from Cuba. But that is not the bulk of illegal immigration, so no doubt they would come up with something equally horrendous for those arriving from Mexico.
Apparently ISIS has claimed responsibility for the bombing in Iran.
"…those who try to come from Cuba."
Okay, got it. I'm up to speed now. But Johnson ain't gonna go to Florida and complain about illegals there. (Cubans, both legal and illegally descended, vote loyal Republican.)
________________________________
"Apparently ISIS has claimed responsibility for the bombing in
Iran."
The Ayatollahs want to blame it on Israel, so they may suppress that claim wherever they can, or even deny it outright, blame it on Israel anyway.
"Russia has rebuilt its own domestic supply of cruise missiles…"
NYT
And we are still drawing down our supply of missiles (as is Europe).
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
"WASHINGTON (AP) — The Supreme Court said Friday it will
decide whether former President Donald Trump can be kept
off the ballot because of his efforts to overturn his 2020
election loss, inserting the court squarely in the 2024
presidential campaign."
AssociatedPress
The Ayatollahs want to blame it on Israel, so they may suppress that claim wherever they can, or even deny it outright, blame it on Israel anyway.
That might piss off ISIS who really likes the publicity. It may motivate them to be less subtle. But, hey, the Ayatollahs primary focus is Israel, not an encroaching threat like ISIS.
And we are still drawing down our supply of missiles (as is Europe).
Thank you, Mike Johnson.
The Supreme Court said Friday it will
decide whether former President Donald Trump can be kept
off the ballot...
I already know what they will decide, so not too excited about this.
There is a rumor going around that General Gerasimov was killed in a Ukrainian airstrike in Crimea on Jan. 4th. No official word from anyone, though.
"I already know what they will decide, so not too excited…"
I'm intrigued by the possibility that they might openly declare the 14áµ—Ê° Amendment to the Constitution to be unconstitutional. But that may be a little bit audacious even for this group of Federalist Society justices. (More likely they will just gut it instead, declare it to be essentially unenforceable and therefore irrelevant and generally meaningless so long as they hold their majority on The Court.)
________________________________
Ron DeSantis says he's looking into getting Biden removed from the presidential ballot in Florida. (Little bit of pre-primary groveling before the Trumpkins I'd reckon that. I find there's not much mystery about why DeSantis can't close the gap on Trump.)
________________________________
"…General Gerasimov…"
I hope it's true. It'd be good for Ukrainian morale. (I wish I could think it'd shorten the war.)
ore likely they will just gut it instead, declare it to be essentially unenforceable...
That was kind of my thought.
"…General Gerasimov…"
I hope it's true. It'd be good for Ukrainian morale. (I wish I could think it'd shorten the war.)
I would worry that his successor could be more competent.
"I would worry that his successor could be more competent."
Possible I suppose, but Putin doesn't pick his generals on the basis of competence. He seeks loyalty and subservience instead. Excessive professional competence is, if anything, a bit of a hindrance to those seeking to advance in Putin's service, a cause for suspicion.
Ukraine claims another strike against a Russian 'command center' in Crimea on the 6áµ—Ê°. DeutschWelle
Word is that those attacks on Crimea are just the beginning.
Meanwhile, back in Russia, there seems to be a problem with homes freezing due to lack of heating fuel. Odd, that. Oh, and chicken seems to be disappearing from grocery shelves. Again, odd.
It sounds like there is some kind of tentative deal on the budget here at home. Mike Johnson seems to have managed to defund the IRS. No doubt keeping a promise to all of his corporate supporters.
"Word is that those attacks on Crimea are just the beginning."
I've been assuming that much (and pleased to see it starting to happen). The Ukrainians have felt a need to placate and 'humor' their supporters/suppliers, especially the Biden administration and the German government. With continued support and supplies now falling into question they've begun to revert to fighting their own war against Russia. I expect that'll continue. (For one thing, I think their war is a superior model given the mismatch in military capabilities, and I think that will likely become self-evident now that they're more free to pursue their own war.)
________________________________
And we do want to take note that the Russians are cranking up their level of attacks as well.
________________________________
"Mike Johnson seems to have managed to defund the IRS."
Partially.
I can't help but notice that the Biden administration is giving ground mostly on temporary things, on stuff that can readily be reversed if they're able to secure a Democratic majority in the House in the 2024 elections. The cut to the IRS budget is a good example. Biden may actually know what he's doing. I sure as Hell hope so.
The real question (as I see it) is whether or not Johnson can deliver on the deal. His right-wingers (the Trumpkin/MAGA contingent and the 'Freedom Caucus', either or both) may yet refuse to go along with the deal he thinks he's made.
For one thing, I think their war is a superior model given the mismatch in military capabilities, and I think that will likely become self-evident now that they're more free to pursue their own war.)
I think so too. You have to tailor your actions to your own circumstances. It's a David vs Goliath type of thing. You have to go back to our Revolutionary War for comparison and the tactics of Francis Marion, albeit with more modern weaponry.
But the Russians seem to be adapting as well. The one thing the Ukrainians have a leg up on them is motivation.
Biden may actually know what he's doing. I sure as Hell hope so.
I have long thought people have underestimated him.
The real question (as I see it) is whether or not Johnson can deliver on the deal.
Yes.
"It's a David vs Goliath type of thing."
In this case, David would like a lot more support in the way of air defenses (ammo is especially critical just now). In case I haven't been clear on that here lately (can't see how that's likely), I'm strongly in support of the idea of cranking up the production of defense supplies for use in Ukraine, especially ammo, to match what Russia can produce or purchase for offense.
And, just to be clear on that last remark: I consider long-range ammo like the MGM-140 system and the German Taurus/KEDP missiles to be defensive so long as Russian troops are occupying Ukrainian land.
The Copernicus Climate Change Service (the E.U.'s climate watchdog agency) confirmed today that 2023 was the single hottest year in recorded history. (Breaking the 2016 record.) CBSNews
Just a small aside...wasn't Lloyd Austin being hospitalized something the president should have been informed about, or am I wrong?
I would tend to think so.
However, if I were charged with defending his decision to maintain his privacy there, I'd start by pointing out that prostate cancer isn't generally considered either a life or career threatening diagnosis. Often they don't even bother to treat it, figuring the chances are high a man will die of something else, totally unrelated, long before the prostate cancer gets around to metastasizing. And the surgery (if they decide to do surgery) is generally a matter of anesthesia in the morning, walk to the car by mid/late afternoon (with somebody else doing the driving); it's not the sort of thing I'd think he would need to disclose. So, I'd think his disclosure requirements would depend on the nature of the 'complications' that arose thereafter, and I don't know enough about that to make a judgment about how necessary it might or might not have been to bother Biden with it.
Re: Budget Deal
A first look suggests the Republican House isn't gonna try to depose Mike Johnson from his Speaker's position over his budget deal. Politico However: My first question wasn't whether Johnson would keep his job. My first question was whether or not Johnson could deliver the votes on a deal he'd agreed to. But that seems to be still up in the air.
Maybe the Houthis will help seal the budget deal. At least for those Republicans who may actually still care about the global stability. We and our allies are going through quite a bit of ammo shooting down Houthi drones and missiles. We should probably replenish that before China invades Taiwan.
They just shot down 21.
Ukraine bagged another high ranking officer in one of those recent attacks.
The Russians seem to be learning from Ukraine's tactics, but still send their equipment and personnel into traps set by Ukraine, losing both.
Ukraine would definitely like those F-16's like yesterday, though.
I haven't found out what is causing the lack of heating in the large number of Russian homes this winter. I thought that was supposed to happen in Europe. It's not just in Moscow, but surrounding areas too.
"My first question was whether or not Johnson could deliver
the votes…"
Lee C. @ Wed Jan 10, 05:05 am ↑↑
Answer came in this afternoon. The answer is 'no'!. ABCNews
Not surprising.
Meanwhile the world seems to be falling apart and we have those idiots hamstringing us.
Now there was a bomb threat against the judge presiding over the Trump Civil fraud trial. Oh joy, more Trump wingnuts crawling out of the woodwork.
"Meanwhile the world seems to be falling apart…"
In that vein: Iran just hijacked a loaded Iraqi oil tanker bound for Turkey whilst claiming it was an American ship.
Reuters
Clear that up ↑↑ Iran was claiming the Iraqi vessel was an American ship.
A little strange the hijacking of the Iraqi tanker given that Iran and Iraq seem rather friendly. I would think, given that we are now pumping more oil than just about anyone else, that the odds of that tanker actually hauling American oil were slim.
And the US and the UK just slapped the Houthi's trigger finger.
Later reports indicate that it was a Greek owned tanker, bound for Turkey with a cargo of Iraqi oil.
It seems the ship was interdicted a year ago bearing an embargoed cargo of Iranian oil. (Bound for I know not where, but embargoed Iranian oil was unlikely to be destined for American buyers.) The Greek owners were fined; the oil was confiscated and sold to pay Iranian debts.
The Greeks aren't having much luck with that ship.
There is word that Ukraine hit a Russian AEW&C aircraft over the Sea of Azov. No confirmation yet.
Twitter, (X nowadays) has a thread that says it's confirmed by the Ukrainian government.
I seem to recall that they've also burned down one or two of those on the ground over the past few months (drone attacks)
By the end of the coming cold night Trump will have convincingly won the Iowa caucuses, largely on the strength of the 'uneducated' Fundie White Christer/'Nativist' vote. Hailey will have come in second. DeSantis will have come in third.
DeSantis spent most of his game building a turnout machine for Iowa. Theoretically he should benefit from the bad weather 'cause he built the 'machine on the ground' to get his people out to caucus and make his big splash there in Iowa. And it ain't gonna happen for him. The weather advantage won't materialize. His big splash in Iowa's gonna fizzle out on him in spite of the weather coöperating with his strategic hopes.
Instead there will be a rush of enthusiasm for the idea that Hailey (comin' in second in spite of DeSantis' best efforts), many will hope that Hailey might actually pose real competition for Trump by the time they get to New Hampshire (and South Carolina after that).
That ain't gonna happen either. Chris Christie was right; DeSantis is already dead in the water, and Trump's gonna bury Hailey by the end of the month.
If they continue to be this predicable Biden might actually win in November.
While I don't like any of the Republican candidates as all would knuckle under to Trump, Hailey would be less obnoxious than the others.
Of course, needless to say I don't like Republican policy in general.
Yes, I think Ukraine has eliminated a couple of those Russian AEW&C planes. Expensive loss for Russia. Nice.
There is word that Iran has attacked a US base in Iraq.
Other word is that the Iranians have attacked the Kurds in Iraq claiming that they're actually Israelis and not Kurds. (Reminds me of the attack on the Greek ship with the Iranians claiming it was an American ship.)
"The U.S. State Department condemned the attacks near Erbil,
calling them 'reckless,' but officials said no U.S. facilities were
targeted and there were no U.S. casualties."
Reuters
Also reports from Politico.EU
I guessed it wrong in Iowa. DeSantis came in second, two percentage points over Hailey.
Why am I still surprised that the American people seem to have more of an authoritarian bias than democratic?
Sad, very sad.
Sounds like there was a lower turnout in Iowa then last time. So perhaps only the die hard Trumpers wanted to brave the cold.
Pre-caucus polling suggested that Hailey voters were less intense than either DeSantis' or Trump's voters. I think that kept DeSantis in 2nd place. Trump was gonna win anyway, and the Hailey voters didn't wanna brave the cold just to get 2nd place for Hailey.
Zelenskyy tried to wrangle a face-to-face meeting with the Chinese Premier Li Qiang at Davos, and was rebuffed. Politico.EU Not a good sign.
Meanwhile, in the ever volatile Middle East, Iran has been flinging missiles just about everywhere, the latest being at Pakistan. Yup inching ever closer to that Third World War thing. Why can't people just get along?
And our ever dysfunctional Congress is twiddling its thumbs over our southern border. Nice.
Midday news said that the United States has launched a fourth missile strike against the Houthi launchers. (Details were not given.)
We may not hear too much about the affects of the sanctions on the Russian economy but there is an impact on their aviation. And for many of the far flung areas of Russia that is their main mode of transport.
There also seems to be a shortage of manpower. One of the reasons they are having problems dealing with the lack of heating fuel and its ramifications. Burst pipes in subzero weather do not make for a pleasant experience.
"…but there is an impact on their aviation."
Putin doesn't worry 'bout how many troops he loses (so long as there's no rebellion back home, and he seems to have that covered). He's not going to worry 'bout losing a few non-slavic peasants from out in the hinterlands.
No he won't, and that's a fact. He has already ordered the planes to keep flying despite the danger. It's a serious crash waiting to happen.
As for having everyone under control, probably true. I guess we'll see how high the Russian tolerance is for miserable conditions first hand instead of reading about it in history books. Those rivers of ice flowing through frozen streets and homes do not look pleasant.
And I am sure the recent demonstration over the imprisonment for 4 years of the environmental activist will fade into memory after Putin's goons cracked down on it.
I'm beginning to suspect that Mike Johnson won't be able to deliver a House vote to keep the government open (the Senate passed a second attempt on Thursday afternoon), much less will he be able to get Republican House approval for military aid to Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine.
Looks like the Ukrainians have claimed an oil depot in the Russian city of Klintsy. AssociatedPress
Not Hitler; more like Mussolini. And, like Mussolini, he's telling us up front that he intends to wield dictatorial powers, and he intends to tell people, truthfully, that's what his majority voted for. He told us it was coming and he was voted in to do just that. To wit:
"On Friday evening, ahead of a rally in Concord, [Trump]
posted the message again in all caps on Truth Social: ‛A
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES MUST HAVE FULL
IMMUNITY, WITHOUT WHICH IT WOULD BE IMPOSSIBLE FOR
HIM/HER TO PROPERLY FUNCTION.’"
Politico
We been warned; straight off the wannabe dictator's stubby little thumbs; we been warned.
Yes, that is the same thing that Liz Cheney said, we have been warned.
Meanwhile, it seems that Russia has been selling off funds from its National Welfare Fund to plug holes in its deficit. They also seem to be having difficulty exporting goods, for some reason. Rumor has it that Anthony Blinken has been quietly making the rounds of Turkey and China warning what would happen to those who continue to trade with Russia. Even India seems to have cut back on Russian oil imports. Secondary sanctions are alive and well. I guess there is more than one type of ammo.
Best to try to make as much trouble for Russia while we can just in case stubby fingers gets back into office.
Looks like the Ukrainians have claimed an oil depot in the Russian city of Klintsy.
Every little bit helps.
"Every little bit helps."
It strikes me as being more than a 'little bit' of help. It indicates they're working their own strategy against Russia, and that's a good thing. We didn't do them any favors by trying to design their war for them. And I'm pleased to see them getting back to their own strategies. They might actually be able to win this war if we'll just provide the technology, and the weapons, and ammo they need, and otherwise stay the Hell outta their way.
(I'm afraid the guys we got running our own Defense Department these last 20 years or so ain't near as good at their jobs as they think they are. And I could expound at some length 'bout why it's probably a smart move to strike into Russia, but that could go on for awhile. I might actually start running up against the Blogger character limits--which I ain't done in a long time. And I think I'll just take a pass on that rant this time.)
I'm from Minnesota, we tend to use understatement a lot. I entirely agree with what you just said. I too think the Ukrainians should be running more of their own show. Especially as our Congress is so clearly inept.
I wouldn't mind reading that rant if you have time. Maybe a condensed version.
But I have found an idea for a new post that I really like, if I can find the time today.
I am seeing a glimmer of hope in New Hampshire. I am hoping Trump finally put his foot in it by confusing Haley and Pelosi. At least with normal voters.
The Ukrainians have hit another fuel depot (this one with a refinery and shipping port attached), way up north near Saint Petersburg. They seem to be quite pleased to have set this ablaze (drone attack).
Meanwhile, back at the ranch… Ron DeSantis has pulled out of the presidential race. Now it's just Hailey and Trump. I'm guessing he was recently looking at their checkbook and not likin' what he was seein'.
And then there were two...
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