Will They Go Round in Circles?

This week the Trump administration unveiled an agreement with Iran to end the US/Israel/Iran war. It has not gone over well for some people in Washington. It appears to favor Iran over the US. I for one believe that to be the case. We seem to be shelling out money to bribe Iran into allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. The Strait, as you know, being a critical conduit for oil that so many countries in the world rely on.

Iran Agreement

So it brings up the question as to what has this war really accomplished? In allowing Donald Trump to have his way in all things Republicans have set up this scenario. Not only have their actions contributed to a higher cost of living, but they have set us up for future events orchestrated by Iran or its proxies to seek revenge. Given the history of the Middle East I think this last is a given.

As it happens something else of significance occurred this week. As of this writing the Russian war on Ukraine has lasted longer than World War 1. For a time it also resembled that war in the use of trench warfare. But the Ukrainians have shown a resilience and ingenuity that has changed this war in a significant way. This has been the first war where drones have been used extensively. This week the Ukrainians attacked an oil refinery in Moscow. Yes, they have been attacking Russia’s oil infrastructure repeatedly for some time, but this is the capitol of Russia. It resonates with Russian elites.

Ukraine attack in Moscow

So what do these two wars have in common?

Well, I would say both were unnecessary, both involved larger countries thinking they could force a smaller country to bend to their will and both will end poorly for those who have initiated them.

The difference between these two wars is that for those who initiated them, due to rather massive egos, the end game may not be the same.

In this rather poor agreement that Trump has agreed to we see an awareness of that difference. The Mid-term elections are this year. There is a chance that the American people, including some Republican voters, are actually getting tired of the chaos, grift and incompetence of the Trump administration. Trump may have noticed those sliding poll numbers. He still needs willing minions in the Congress to rubber stamp whatever he does.

For Putin there is little chance that he or his minions will be booted out of power via an honest election. However, he does run the risk of societal collapse. Yes, Russians in the past have had a high tolerance for poor economic conditions, more so than Americans. But Russia also has a history of regime change in ways that can be sudden and violent.

Putin and Trump are simply spinning their wheels and letting their countries pay the price.