Friday, 19 June 2026

Will They Go Round in Circles?

This week the Trump administration unveiled an agreement with Iran to end the US/Israel/Iran war. It has not gone over well for some people in Washington. It appears to favor Iran over the US. I for one believe that to be the case. We seem to be shelling out money to bribe Iran into allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. The Strait, as you know, being a critical conduit for oil that so many countries in the world rely on.

Iran Agreement



So it brings up the question as to what has this war really accomplished? In allowing Donald Trump to have his way in all things Republicans have set up this scenario. Not only have their actions contributed to a higher cost of living, but they have set us up for future events orchestrated by Iran or its proxies to seek revenge. Given the history of the Middle East I think this last is a given.

As it happens something else of significance occurred this week. As of this writing the Russian war on Ukraine has lasted longer than World War 1. For a time it also resembled that war in the use of trench warfare. But the Ukrainians have shown a resilience and ingenuity that has changed this war in a significant way. This has been the first war where drones have been used extensively. This week the Ukrainians attacked an oil refinery in Moscow. Yes, they have been attacking Russia’s oil infrastructure repeatedly for some time, but this is the capitol of Russia. It resonates with Russian elites.

Ukraine attack in Moscow



So what do these two wars have in common?

Well, I would say both were unnecessary, both involved larger countries thinking they could force a smaller country to bend to their will and both will end poorly for those who have initiated them.

The difference between these two wars is that for those who initiated them, due to rather massive egos, the end game may not be the same.

In this rather poor agreement that Trump has agreed to we see an awareness of that difference. The Mid-term elections are this year. There is a chance that the American people, including some Republican voters, are actually getting tired of the chaos, grift and incompetence of the Trump administration. Trump may have noticed those sliding poll numbers. He still needs willing minions in the Congress to rubber stamp whatever he does.

For Putin there is little chance that he or his minions will be booted out of power via an honest election. However, he does run the risk of societal collapse. Yes, Russians in the past have had a high tolerance for poor economic conditions, more so than Americans. But Russia also has a history of regime change in ways that can be sudden and violent.

Putin and Trump are simply spinning their wheels and letting their countries pay the price.



23 comments:

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It seems the reflecting pool not only has an algae problem, but the blue liner installed on the bottom is coming up.

It does seem like everything he touches turns to shit.

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

It appears that Trump's most recent stumbles have also given rise to a reverse bandwagon effect.  His political allies, both at home and abroad, are turning on him with increased speed and vigor.  Just for instance:  Right-winger political parties in Europe are increasingly putting distance between themselves and Trump.  And American Trumpkan/Republican House and Senate members are turning deaf ears to his repeated entreaties to pass another "reconciliation" bill as well as his insistence they pass his dreamed of "SAVE America Act".

(And he's now got the federal government arresting people for picking up souvenir scraps of the blue coating from his reflecting pool misadventure.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It sounds like the contractor that worked on the pool is a Trump donor who got the contract in a no bid deal. Classic.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Mass firings in our intelligence services. And the incompetence rolls on...

Congratulations, Republicans, you own this.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Trump is now holding hostage the Housing bill he was set to sign until the Senate pass the SAVE Act. Getting desperate, much?

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

His fallback plan for a failure to acquire a new justification for federal meddling in the mid-term elections is named Pete Hegseth.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It will be a huge mistake. Minnesotans response to the ICE invasion should be a warning.

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

Trump and Hegseth are already anticipating an unfavorable response on the part of a large segment of the population.  It's Hegseth's job to have his command structrure ready to meet that unfavorable response.  He was selected for just that and retains his unqualified support from Trump based on Trump's continued perception that Hegseth is ready to meet that challenge.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Are they anticipating an unfavorable response from within the military?

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

I certainly hope not.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

So what happens when you bite the hands that feed you? Trump has alienated the GOP in Congress by not signing the housing bill and now he is going after big oil for price gouging.

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

What Trump does is double down.  He went and yelled at them for passing a war powers resolution and they promptly voted on it again and voted it down the next time.  Just showin' 'em who's the boss there.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It sounds like Cassidy caved. I wonder what Trump has on him.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Trump us now playing the communist card.

Texas apparently is now requiring students to study Bible stories in school. Separation of church and state be damned.

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

A Trump established government commission issued its report yesterday recommending the building of "bridges" between the government and conservative Christian churches to overcome the years of separation of church and state.  NBCNews

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It dovetails nicely with Trump's rhetoric about communists efforts to do away with religion. Another attempt to garner votes for the mid-terms. Another bait and switch tactic by an adept conman.

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

      "Another attempt to garner votes for the mid-terms."

Likewise my conclusion.  He's turning his attention to the mid-terms.  Looking to work voter enthusiasm buttons he's left unworked for awhile now.  He's given up on riding a victory over Iraq into November, so now he's dusting off some old stuff that still has potential to gin up certain segments of the old Republican base.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I have started to listen to a series on the psychology of Trump and Trumpism. The first segment pertains to why Trump is the way he is. It does make me understand why he cannot let go of the 2020 election defeat. To admit defeat would be to admit failure and he just cannot do that. The second segment pertains to why so many people follow him and how the society in which they live is a factor. I will listen to that tomorrow.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The Supreme Court has ruled that mail in ballots post marked before or on election day can be counted even if they are received after election day. A win, for now. Tomorrow they rule on birthright citizenship. Hoping they rule justly.

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

      "To admit defeat would be to admit failure and he just cannot
      do that."


I would suggest that conclusion merely proves you should take that "series" you're reading with more than just a grain of salt.
Trump knows damn well he lost.  It's certainly not his first failure.  He's more than capable of moving on from serial failures.  (He simply denies them, working from the Joseph Goebbels' adage that "a lie repeated often enough becomes the truth".  He does it almost every time; he's a one-trick pony.  He's so fiercely dedicated to that trick because it's the only trick he's got.  So far it's been the only one he needs.  None of that means he doesn't know he's lying.)
I don't mean to suggest there's no profit in reading that series, but I do suggest the author might get himself confused on distinguishing "Trump can't" from "Trump won't".

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Oh no, I didn't mean to imply that he doesn't know he lost. He just can't admit it to other people. I think a lot of the information on Trump's formative years came from Mary Trump's book, which I did read earlier. I just wanted to start the series from the beginning as a refresher. It is really the pieces on his followers that I am the most interested in. This is on YouTube.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The Supreme Court has upheld birthright citizenship.

      Lee C.   ―   U.S.A.      said...

      "The Supreme Court has upheld birthright citizenship."

There was a risk that the Trump administration would attempt to revoke the citizenship of adult Americans who couldn't prove they had sufficient long-term American lineage.  That coulda got tricky.  (Indeed, what lineage would be sufficient to placate them?)  But, we seem to have dodged that bullet.