A couple weeks ago I started a post regarding predictions for the future of Russia. In that post I said that their future was intertwined with that of Ukraine and speculated on two possible scenarios depending on what happened in Ukraine. I have since come to the conclusion that it will not matter what happens in Ukraine for the future of Russia. So I am rewriting that post.
I think we have been witnessing the slow collapse of Russia for some time, we just didn't realize it. Since the collapse of the USSR in the 90's Russia has struggled to improve the lives of the Russian people. And to some degree they succeeded, with the help of other countries. But what they have not done, is grow a democratic form of government that is real and lasting. What they have in place is rule by one man, Vladimir Putin. So there are no checks to his power. The war he started in Ukraine is all on him and those who have enabled him.
The reaction to Putin's war by many in the world has been revulsion and sorrow. We are seeing the destruction of a country, Ukraine, that has worked hard to join the world community on an equal and productive basis. In Russia we are seeing a deep schism between her people on what they believe is happening in Ukraine. One faction sees what Putin wants them to see, listening only to the propaganda his government has been peddling. The other faction is more well informed and understands the heartbreaking tragedy that is occurring in their neighbor and longtime friend, Ukraine, at the hands of their government.
The West put in place extensive sanctions against Russia, which will impact the Russian economy. A large number of companies have shut down operations within Russia. One of those is McDonald's, one of the first companies to set up shop in Russia back in the 90's. The Moscow location was mobbed on the first day, with Russians lining up to try this icon of American culture. While it is not the healthiest of food Russians came to appreciate their dedication to food safety and the pleasant atmosphere within their walls. While you may find some McDonald's locations open, they are the franchisees who are doing so illegally. In this one example we see the future, the curtain of darkness falling over the light of the outside world, along with the criminal behavior that will increase in the Russian economy.
Putin has put in place a draconian law that clamps down on free speech, giving a sentence of 15 years in prison to those who even refer to the situation in Ukraine as a war or invasion. The independent press was shut down in Russia leaving only Putin's propaganda network. It is midnight in Russia and people have started to flee the darkness. We are seeing them here at our border. The number of Russians trying to enter the United States started to increase after the detention of Alexei Navalny. While they may not have predicted the invasion of Ukraine, they knew the future of Russia.
Within the battle for Ukraine Russia is targeting civilians, forcing Ukrainians against their will to evacuate to Russia, bombing humanitarian corridors that they had agreed to. They have used weapons systems designed to sow terror and inflict the maximum casualties, such as cluster and thermobaric bombs. They have escalated by using hypersonic missiles. Because you see they know they cannot win by using conventional means. Their equipment has broken down, their soldiers did not even know where they were in the beginning, and when they did realize, they did not want to fight against those they have always considered family.
Millions of Ukrainians have fled their country and are now in Europe, while others stayed to fight for their homeland and their freedom. I, and many like me, are in awe of their courage and heartbroken for their plight.
Does Putin really embody the soul of Russia? I think not. And so, the cracks are widening in Russia. Do Russians really want to turn their backs on the light and live in darkness? Is that the future they want? I hope not. Because that would be echoing the tragedy of Ukraine.
I stand with Ukraine and all those who fight for their freedom.
