A couple weeks ago I started a post regarding predictions for the future of Russia. In that post I said that their future was intertwined with that of Ukraine and speculated on two possible scenarios depending on what happened in Ukraine. I have since come to the conclusion that it will not matter what happens in Ukraine for the future of Russia. So I am rewriting that post.
I think we have been witnessing the slow collapse of Russia for some time, we just didn't realize it. Since the collapse of the USSR in the 90's Russia has struggled to improve the lives of the Russian people. And to some degree they succeeded, with the help of other countries. But what they have not done, is grow a democratic form of government that is real and lasting. What they have in place is rule by one man, Vladimir Putin. So there are no checks to his power. The war he started in Ukraine is all on him and those who have enabled him.
The reaction to Putin's war by many in the world has been revulsion and sorrow. We are seeing the destruction of a country, Ukraine, that has worked hard to join the world community on an equal and productive basis. In Russia we are seeing a deep schism between her people on what they believe is happening in Ukraine. One faction sees what Putin wants them to see, listening only to the propaganda his government has been peddling. The other faction is more well informed and understands the heartbreaking tragedy that is occurring in their neighbor and longtime friend, Ukraine, at the hands of their government.
The West put in place extensive sanctions against Russia, which will impact the Russian economy. A large number of companies have shut down operations within Russia. One of those is McDonald's, one of the first companies to set up shop in Russia back in the 90's. The Moscow location was mobbed on the first day, with Russians lining up to try this icon of American culture. While it is not the healthiest of food Russians came to appreciate their dedication to food safety and the pleasant atmosphere within their walls. While you may find some McDonald's locations open, they are the franchisees who are doing so illegally. In this one example we see the future, the curtain of darkness falling over the light of the outside world, along with the criminal behavior that will increase in the Russian economy.
Putin has put in place a draconian law that clamps down on free speech, giving a sentence of 15 years in prison to those who even refer to the situation in Ukraine as a war or invasion. The independent press was shut down in Russia leaving only Putin's propaganda network. It is midnight in Russia and people have started to flee the darkness. We are seeing them here at our border. The number of Russians trying to enter the United States started to increase after the detention of Alexei Navalny. While they may not have predicted the invasion of Ukraine, they knew the future of Russia.
Within the battle for Ukraine Russia is targeting civilians, forcing Ukrainians against their will to evacuate to Russia, bombing humanitarian corridors that they had agreed to. They have used weapons systems designed to sow terror and inflict the maximum casualties, such as cluster and thermobaric bombs. They have escalated by using hypersonic missiles. Because you see they know they cannot win by using conventional means. Their equipment has broken down, their soldiers did not even know where they were in the beginning, and when they did realize, they did not want to fight against those they have always considered family.
Millions of Ukrainians have fled their country and are now in Europe, while others stayed to fight for their homeland and their freedom. I, and many like me, are in awe of their courage and heartbroken for their plight.
Does Putin really embody the soul of Russia? I think not. And so, the cracks are widening in Russia. Do Russians really want to turn their backs on the light and live in darkness? Is that the future they want? I hope not. Because that would be echoing the tragedy of Ukraine.
I stand with Ukraine and all those who fight for their freedom.
108 comments:
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Anonymous Marcus said...
Lynnette
“ So Russia has used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine. A rather disturbing development.”
No not really. A hypersonic missile is just a way to deliver the same payload as any other missile only faster. And since the Ukies don’t have many means to defend against ordinary missiles the Russians using the cream of their missile inventory could actually mean they’re running out f missiles.
Sun Mar 20, 09:45:00 am
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Marcus said...
Hypersonic missiles are meant to be able to penetrate missile defense systems such as the USs Patriot system. Thereby they are a deterrent in the way they COULD be armed w a nuke and COULD penetrate defensive systems.
The Ukraine have close to zero defense against incoming missiles so using hypersonic carriers there is not needed. Ergo, IF the Russians are in fact deploying them then it’s a sign their missile inventory is getting low. If it’s true it’s actually a positive.
Sun Mar 20, 09:54:00 am
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Lee C. ― U.S.A. said...
"…it’s a sign their missile inventory is getting low."
Could be they're just showing them off--letting people know they got working now. (And they probably have their weapons techs monitoring their use in Ukraine just as if it were another pre-deployment test run. This is their chance to test 'em in actual combat, work any bugs out.)
Sun Mar 20, 09:58:00 am Delete
I did wonder about the stocks of weapons that Russia still has on hand. They are expending a lot of equipment and ammo in Ukraine. Even if the Chinese were to send arms to them, they are in the same boat as if the West had sent planes to Ukraine. Would the combatants be able to operate effectively new systems? Are the Chinese systems compatible or could they ramp up production to actually supply them with their versions? And the big question here would be, would China want to get that involved and risk WWIII?
In this case the sanctions may play a role in how long Russia is able to continue this fight.
The idea that the Russians are trying out the new weapons or wanted to show them off to the West, perhaps as a warning, is also a valid point.
In this case, the West has to face the possibility of a widening war and their response to it.
I understand that hypersonic weapons are being developed, or have been developed, by other countries, including the US. I would think that if the offensive weapon has been developed that someone would also be working on a defense against it. Anyone? Or is the defense the neutralizing of the stocks of the missiles?
I am finding it rather worrying that the Russians are kidnapping Ukrainians and carrying them off to Russia. As you mentioned, Lee, hostages. Kind of like those unfortunate Americans who are languishing in Russian jails because of trumped up charges.
"Or is the defense the neutralizing of the stocks of the missiles?"
Current notions for defense tend toward laser cannons and (less likely) electronic rail guns.
And, just 'cause nobody's mentioned it yet. Russian forces in the northern half of Ukraine are digging into defensive positions. Conventional wisdom is that they're going to quit trying to overrun the cities and settle into dug in positions, then pound the cities into rubble with artillery. Speculations coming out of the Pentagon that they're sending out for heavy artillery to make up for the loss of rocket launchers and long range missiles that they may be running out of here soon.
(Of course, this would expose their artillery crews to raids by armed Ukrainians. So this may not be as good an idea as it sounds like on first impression.)
"…it’s a sign their missile inventory is getting low."
I've read more than one analysis this morning which agrees with Marcus on this point. At least they agree that the Russians are running out of long-distance missiles, especially high tech precision munitions. It seems to be the conventional wisdom.
Which would leave them with less to use in the continuing war in Ukraine or any expansion of that war to other territory. They would need to ramp up manufacturing within their country to replace weapons they have used or, as we have seen, request resupply from someone with deep pockets.
War is expensive. Looking back at WWII even the United States had rationing and everyone participated in the war effort. It was a time period of great change in the workplace with more women working outside the home.
Putin assumed this would be quick. It will not be. Nor will it be cheap. The price will rise higher as the Russian economy implodes. There are estimates that their economy will shrink by half and their standard of living will fall back to that of the Soviet Union in the 80's.
It appears that the Russians are also getting impatient for the fall of Mariupol, issuing an ultimatum to the defenders and the people inside to surrender or else.
Mariupol is still blocking Putin's corridor to Odessa. He really wants to take Odessa.
One if by land, two if by sea. He really wants to do the two if by sea thing.
I was half expecting to wake to a headline reading "Russian Warship ― go f*** yourself" in response to the demand that the city of Mariupol be surrendered voluntarily 'or else'.
But, the Ukrainian government is a little more serious than that.
The city of Mariupol is, in any case, not surrendered. It apparently has been taken, in that Russian soldiers are said to be on the streets in all sections of the city. But, all that did was introduce the Russians to their first consistently up close and perhaps fiercest meeting with the Ukrainian Resistance to date. The Russians are discovering that holding the streets doesn't necessarily make the streets safe for Russians.
It was probably anticipation of that discovery that prompted the Russians to issue that peculiar ultimatum in the first place. Well, now it's here. The Russians are in Mariupol; so is the Ukrainian Resistance.
It appears that the Chinese have adopted a double PR message on the War on Ukraine. For domestic consumption it's all about solidarity with Russia and how it's all the fault of 'The West' that Russia has been forced to take military action.
For the international audience, the Chinese are increasing critical of the invasion.
The Chinese government seems to be fairly confident about their ability to keep these conflicting messages separated from one another for consumption by the two different audiences.
NYT
The Ukrainian Army claims (on their twitter page) to have taken out a fifth Russian general (out of twenty who came in commanding during this invasion). They identify the fifth as Lt. Gen. Andrey Mordvichev of the 8ᵗʰ Army (Russian obviously). He was taken down near Kherson, in that southern corridor the Russians are trying to establish to Odessa.
Russian troops have hijacked a relief convoy intended for civilian aid to Kharkov. NYT Putin's soldiers will eat tonight, some of them anyway.
The Russians are in Mariupol; so is the Ukrainian Resistance.
Perhaps that will stop some of the bombing. And hopefully the Resistance will keep them bogged down there.
The Ukrainian Army claims (on their twitter page) to have taken out a fifth Russian general (out of twenty who came in commanding during this invasion).
They were talking about the eliminated Generals the other day on CNN. Apparently these guys are at the front trying to get their troops to fight. It kind of exposes them to the Ukrainian snipers.
Russian troops have hijacked a relief convoy intended for civilian aid to Kharkov.
Apparently the Chinese MRE's haven't arrived yet.
The Chinese government seems to be fairly confident about their ability to keep these conflicting messages separated from one another for consumption by the two different audiences.
Well, maybe, but I've always thought that kind of double dealing doesn't end well for the person perpetrating it.
Russian forces in Kherson are now responding to civilian street protests with gunfire, at least in some cases. NYT They seem to be slowly moving on from the days when a single person lying down in front of a tank would fluster them and stop their progress.
They've not said this out loud, but American military analysts are beginning to hint that Putin's claim of successful use of hypersonic missile technology in Ukraine may have been an empty boast. The way the Pentagon is putting is that they 'can find no evidence' to support that claim. (Although, Biden himself did say Russia has used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine just last night.)
And, I haven't seen this said aloud in the press either, which I find surprising, but the damage done to that shopping mall in Kyiv by a single missile late Sunday night (our time) suggested to me the use of a thermobaric bomb. (Although…I did notice one article on the Reuters' feed which referred to the use of 'bombs' there, in the plural, rather than describe it as 'a' missile strike, in the singular.)
Belarus has withdrawn its troops from the Ukrainian border. WaPo Perhaps Lukashenko was getting tired of rejecting repeated Russian efforts to bring Belarus more fully and actively into the war.
And we should probably take note of the so-far unconfirmed reports that the Russians have kidnapped 'thousands' of children from Mariupol and its environs (suggesting that they've left the parents behind) and taken them to destinations unknown, but suspected to be in Russia.
This would be in addition to the adults they've kidnapped from the same region.
In a move I wasn't expecting this early… The Ukraines have begun their counteroffensive across their southern flank. Notably, their first goal is to retake Kherson and the airport nearby, and they seem to be on the move (although it's early yet to say they're achieving success--it's lookin' better than bad for their counterattack.) NYT
On to Mariupol afterwards, I would guess.
"Incredibly, Komsomolskaya Pravda, a pro-Kremlin Russian
newspaper, just published Russian Ministry of Defense
numbers indicating 9,861 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine
and 16,153 wounded. (The story was quickly removed.)"
Bloomberg
Zelensky has criticized Israel for not doing more to help Ukraine, comparing Russia's invasion to the Nazi holocaust. He may have miscalculated there. The Israel's did not agree with that comparison.
I may have to update my post if there is some question on the hypersonic missile. They said they trackedit so I assumed they could determine the speed.
"They said they tracked it so I assumed they could
determine the speed."
That alone wouldn't tell ya much. Ballistic missile reach 'hypersonic' speeds. The difference is that ballistic missiles don't dodge or change direction after reaching speed.
"The Israel's did not agree with that comparison."
The Israel's do not agree with anyone comparing their situation to the Holocaust, ever; they tend to consider that a unique evil, unparalleled in the long history of humanity. (The lure of victimhood is as strong among the Israeli as it is among others.)
Lee
” Mariupol is still blocking Putin's corridor to Odessa. He really wants to take Odessa.”
If I were to guess I don’t think they’ll ever take Odessa, not that they wouldn’t want to but they don’t have the strength and numbers. Mauriopol seem like it’s on the brink. Sure there are some Ukies left putting up a fight and if they are prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice they may well tie up the Russians for some time yet. But eventually Mauripol will fall.
One reason of course is that the Russians need Mauripol for their land bridge between Russia proper and Chrimea. They don’t actually need Odessa for that. Second is that Mauripol was the base of the Azov battalion. And even if they are actually rather small part of the Ukie forces the Russians want to obliterate them.
I believe if they take Mariupol they will instead of moving down to Odessa use the troops freed up from the Mariupol advance to go for a southern front just straight to Kiev. But that’s just my guess.
"But eventually Mauripol will fall."
I'm not sure of your definitions there.
Takin' a shot at the meaning: It probably means you think the Russians can take, and hold, Mariupol. Don't think that's gonna happen.
Gonna be Ukrainians building back on the ruins when it's over; not Russians.
And, just by the way… Mariupol has today come under heavy naval bombardment to supplement the aerial and land assaults it had been suffering for three weeks now.
Belarus has withdrawn its troops from the Ukrainian border.
Hmmm..the US and NATA are still thinking that Belarus will enter the war on the Russian side.
The difference is that ballistic missiles don't dodge or change direction after reaching speed.
Yeah, I was reading that. That's what really makes them more dangerous. They are elusive.
Lee
” Takin' a shot at the meaning: It probably means you think the Russians can take, and hold, Mariupol. Don't think that's gonna happen.”
Yup. That’s what I believe will happen. In the coming weeks or so.
The Russians can push in supplies and reserves more than they thought they needed but still basically inevitably. The remaining defenders are completely cut off from everywhere. They might put up a staunch last defense but they stand no real chance. Mariupol will fall.
Now, on a more positive note I believe the Russians will lack the manpower to seriously lay siege to either Odessa nor Kiev. Well “laying siege” to Kiev they kinda are already but a siege ain’t a siege until you encircle at all points. And there still appear to be ways in and out of Kiev the Russkies can’t shut off.
My amateur view is Putin was of the belief he could Blitz the Ukraine and most of its people would either side w Russia or submit to it. He was reinforced in this belief by security officials too intimidated but to tell him what he wanted to hear, or possibly too useless to know any better.
Well, THAT didn’t happen.
But Putin has now found him like a Texas Holdem player whose gone all in. There’s no real way back. His troops are by most accounts now getting slaughtered. The Ukies say 15k, the Brit intelligence say 7k, the US intelligence say 10k. And just this morning I read the figure roughly 10k dead was actually reported in Russian media only to be retracted and blamed on a hack.
But I have seen the videos. I have seen columns upon columns of abandoned and/or blown up Russian vehicles. I have seen the twitter films from the drone strikes and the javelin/nlaw strikes. I am in no doubt the Russians are taking heavy casualties. Then as far as the actual numbers I assume all sides lie. It’s war and propaganda is a means of war.
"There’s no real way back."
That's not Putin's biggest problem. His bigger problem is that he has found no way forward.
Putin's belief in his own indomitable will and in his slavic passionarity ain't gonna inspire his soldiers to fight.
The Pentagon seems to be coming around to the notion that the Russians may well have used a Kinzhal missile at least once. But, the Kinzhal is just a modified Iskander-M 9M723 'quasi-ballistic' fired from an airplane. ('Quasi-ballistic' means, in this instance, that it started life as an ordinary ballistic missile and was subsequently modified with steering fins to make it marginally steerable.) They think the Russians used it against that munitions warehouse because it was all they had available unless they wanted to send an airplane in close, which they did not want to do. They basically wasted it, using is as a simple air-to-surface missile--aim and shoot no steering required.
New wrinkle in our attempts to isolate Russia: It's turning out that a lot of the ruling classes of so-called 'Third World' nations are innately hostile to the economic moves underlying the economic isolations now launched against Putin and his oligarchs.
Their notion seems to be that money looted from their native lands and safely stashed in overseas' accounts and in investments in 'The West' was supposed to be inviolate. That the funds could simply be frozen and the looters be denied access to funds they'd spirited out of their country is not very popular among the ruling classes in a lot countries around the world. Arab leaders don't like it. African leaders don't like it. South American leaders don't like it. Asian leaders don't like it. The Chinese are even redder faced than they'd claimed to be when they were pretending to be socialists.
Just a small aside...is it me or is it a little unusual for a large plane to crash vertically? Could the plane crash in China have been a deliberate act?
Yes to both questions.
New wrinkle in our attempts to isolate Russia: It's turning out that a lot of the ruling classes of so-called 'Third World' nations are innately hostile to the economic moves underlying the economic isolations now launched against Putin and his oligarchs.
Possibly something that will be on the agenda to discuss when NATO meets this week.
Now they have sanctions in place, they have to try to make them leak proof.
"New satellite imagery analyzed by The New York Times
showed that Russia had removed all of its aircraft from the
airport of the southern city of Kherson, the largest city that
the Russian forces have captured so far."
NYT
Probably got tired of them being destroyed.
The Chechens have finally gotten into the battle. Except these Chechens are fighting on the side of Ukraine.
The Ukrainians claim to have taken out six Russian generals now. I didn't get the name of the most recently dead general, but that will eventually pop up somewhere.
Plus an admiral and a deputy naval commander. (The Russians brought their fleet in close to help with shelling Mariupol. Looks like they've had their own 'commanders at the front' moments in consequence.)
I mentioned earlier that an increase in sorties by the Ukrainian Air Force might presage a need to revisit that MIG-29 transfer question. Well, it seems we've had an increase in Russian MIG flights over Ukraine--up about 50% over the course of the last week/ten days. May be that oughta be looked at too.
Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich appears to be preparing to move his financial empire, assets and investments, including his mega-yacht, to Turkey. (Not quite ready to take it all home to Mother Russia it would seem.)
If I saw the numbers right, there's about 3,000 Ukrainian soldiers and armed volunteers now defending the pile of rubble that used to be Mariupol (plus about 100,000 civilians still trapped in that rubble pile) from an attacking force of around 14,000 Russian regular army types (plus air support and artillery by land and sea).
And the defenders have run the Russians back out of the city (mostly).
"US and NATO are still thinking that Belarus will enter the war
on the Russian side."
I saw a CNN article that I suspect was the basis for your comment there. It suggested that the decision to involve Belarus's troops was Putin's decision to make--that Lukashenko really had nothing to say about the matter. That may or may not be true.
But there've been persistent rumors of threats of mutiny from the Belarus military if called on to enter Ukraine (the natives are not friendly).
So, it may also be true that Lukashenko seized the opportunity to preëmpt any command from Putin to send in the Belarus troops.
The opposition in Belarus suggest that the troops from Belarus will not be 9f much help to Russia. Of course they may be biased.
Considering the amount of ordinance the Russians have thrown against Mariupol I would think it would be difficult for them to repeat that scenario country wide. They will eventually run out. The question is van Ukraine out last them.
Yeah, typos...
Typos?
I would like to see Russia kicked out of the G20 before it meets this fall.
China is balking at that.
There is a never ending problem with Russian soldiers, even the dead.
"The problem with Russian bodies is really huge. It's thousands of them. Before the war, the weather was cold, it was okay but now we have problems because Russians don't want to take the bodies," Andrusiv said. "I actually don't know what we will do in the next weeks with their bodies."
"China is balking…."
Might wanna turn China out this round as well.
They're publicly considering providing aid to a Russian evasion of the sanctions. Might just as well acknowledge now that they're not part of the team there. Might even consider it to be a first step towards acknowledging that it was a mistake to allow them enty into the World Trade Organization.
"…Russians don't want to take the bodies…"
I suppose the cold-storage in Belarus is full.
Storm damage to the Caspian oil pipeline has put it out of service.
Gas prices rise
A Russian energy official, quoted by Russian state news agency TASS, said Tuesday that the repair of the marine terminal near the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk could take six weeks to two months and may shrink oil exports by about 1 million barrels per day.
“This is a rather serious timeframe,” Pavel Sorokin, Russia’s deputy energy minister, was quoted as saying by TASS. He added that a heavy storm damaged at least one of the three oil loading facilities and assessments are ongoing.
Hmmm...really...
A new "Faith in America" survey done by Deseret News & Marist College reveals that dedicated Trumpkins are strongly attracted to "social dominance behavior" (i.e. Trump is a jerk and a bully; they like that, a lot).
It further finds that dedicated Trumpkins have a below average level of "cognitive sophistication" (i.e. they're dumber than average).
Salon
_________________________
N.B: There are some reasons to suspect bias in the setup of this survey. But that don't mean the conclusions are necessarily wrong.
It looks like Putin's fallen into a 'regroup and resupply' phase of his War on Ukraine. I did note that he's already raising the level of attacks against civilian sections of Kyiv these past few days; that will almost certainly continue. He'll soon be bringing up the heavy artillery to support his continued siege tactics against both Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. (If he can. Ukraine's soon entering its customary 'mud season' and he may have some trouble moving heavy artillery into firing range of his intended targets. The Russians had trouble with the Ukrainian mud even before it came into season.)
World War II entered into what they called 'the phoney war' period not long after Hitler and Stalin divided up Poland--lasted several months, most of a year as I recall off the top of my head, until Hitler got around to invading France. (The most significant thing that happened in that time was probably Russia's use of the opportunity and distraction to invade Finland--again; they used to do that with some regularity.)
We may soon be looking at a modern equivalent period, while Putin regroups--restocks--and refigures on how to achieve his current objectives. I'm unsure how long this interregnum will last. I do think the Russians will maintain their war on civilians during the interregnum, so, whatever name finally sticks for this period, it likely won't be considered a 'phoney war'. But, by whatever name, it may drag on for awhile.
Hmmm...seems that a Russian warship is on fire at the port of Berdyansk. It also is blocking the port for use as it is rather large and...er...on fire.
Kind of makes resupplying through there a little tough.
I was wondering how long before someone found those rather large targets.
"I was wondering how long before…"
Yeah, I been wondering 'how long before…' as well. And not just ships in the Sea of Azov.
An interesting article in The Atlantic, for a change of pace from CNN.
Otto von Bismarck once said that only a fool learns from his own mistakes. “I learn from other people’s,” the 19th-century German chancellor said. Astonishingly, the Russian army is repeating the past mistakes of its Soviet predecessor. In April 1945, Marshal Georgy Zhukov, under intense pressure from Stalin, sent his tank armies into Berlin without infantry support. Vladimir Putin’s forces not only made the same error; they even copied the way their forebears had attached odd bits of iron—including bed frames—to their tanks’ turrets in the hopes that the added metal would detonate anti-tank weapons prematurely.
Jan. 6th suspect Evan Neumann has been granted asylum in Belarus.
Yes, below average "cognitive sophistication" would be a kind way of putting it.
"Otto von Bismarck once said that only a fool learns from
his own mistakes."
It probably would have been more accurate to say that even a fool can learn from his own mistakes. But, Bismark was an arrogant son-of-a-bitch.
________________________________
"Jan. 6th suspect Evan Neumann has been granted asylum in
Belarus."
I don't think that'll make the headlines on the Sean Hannity show.
________________________________
Ukrainian authorities have released an estimate of 300 dead in that (now infamous) Russian attack on the theater being used as a civilian shelter in Mariupol.
"Not long after Mr. Biden arrived in Poland, the Russian
military signaled that it might be reducing its war aims. After a
month of a grinding war in which Russian forces have been
met by unexpectedly fierce Ukrainian resistance and have
failed to capture major cities across the country, Maj. Gen.
Sergei Rudskoi said Russia would now be focused on defeating
Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, where
Russian-backed separatists have been fighting a war since
2014.
"He said the 'first stage of the operation' had been 'mainly
accomplished,' with Ukraine’s combat power 'significantly
reduced.' But it is far from clear that the larger conflict might
wind down: He added that Russia 'does not exclude' that its
forces will storm major Ukrainian cities such as Kyiv, the
capital, though he said that taking them over was not a
primary objective."
NYT
I heard about the Russian repositioning. I think a lot of people, including the Ukrainians, are not taking what Russia says at face value.
Some think they are trying for a face saving move because they are losing too many men and military hardware. US officials see them digging in around their artillery positions in order to continue the bombing campaign of cities.
I have heard they are moving troops from Georgia to Ukraine. Wonder what happened to those Belarussians? Are the Russians just buying time as they bring in reinforcements>
The Russians have struck a fuel storage facility and also the Air Command and Control facility for the Ukrainian Air Force.
Maybe they are trying to preemptively prevent any additional planes being of use. Or maybe the Ukrainian Air Force is better than they realized. They didn't bargain for the training they have been doing since 2014.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, apparently one of those calling for an overthrow of our government on Jan. 6th is the wife of a Supreme Court Justice. Clarence Thomas's wife Ginni spent some time texting Mark Meadows urging him to help overturn the election.
"Are the Russians just buying time as they bring in
reinforcements?"
I think the Russians are still hunting for reinforcements; they're mining combat units spread all across the Russian territories as well as from Georgia, Chechnya, Tjaikistan, Armenia, and Syria. (A lot of the Russian troops scattered through there are contract soldiers, not draftees. But they're still gonna need logistical support to keep up the fight and that's gonna continue to be a weak spot.) Putin's also apparently stepping up his search for mercenary troops to use.
The soldiers from Belarus don't wanna go in. And Lukashenko is afraid to give the order; afraid it won't be obeyed. (There's also a rumor goin' 'round that a Russian Colonel near Kyiv was attacked and either maimed or killed by his own soldiers after he ordered them into some heavy losses.)
Much as anything else, the Kremlin appears to be trying to decide what to do and how to spin it. What Putin wants most (right now anyway) is to be seen as 'a winner' coming out of this. That's a considerably lower bar than he went in with, but it probably also means he'll need to demand some new territorial concessions that Ukraine won't want to give him.
I don't think Putin knows yet just how he's gonna havta move; so he's keeping a couple of options open for the time being. Or trying to anyway.
The thing I'm wondering is whether the Russians are going to keep blowing the cities of western Ukraine to rubble, even if they settle for consolidating their hold on the eastern provinces as their public 'win'.
Does Putin's 'slow war' against Ukraine still include the slow destruction of the western cities, just 'cause he can get away with it? Hard to say right now.
And there's been no apparent progress on refilling Ukraine's Air Force with Russian-made fighter jets either.
________________________________
Lot of people been keeping a watch on that developing story about Ginni Thomas. Figure that'll keep for later. Right now the Ukraine story is populating the headlines. Ginni and Clarence still gonna be there after the NATO meeting is over.
Which reminds me…. The NATO meeting is over.
There's also a rumor goin' 'round that a Russian Colonel near Kyiv was attacked and either maimed or killed by his own soldiers after he ordered them into some heavy losses.)
Maybe the same guy i heard was run over by a tank. Seems the soldier driving it was angry about the 50% losses in his unit.
I really couldn't tell in the video I saw.
The Russians have struck some kind of fuel storage facility near Lviv. Seems a bit west to everyone who were discussing the so called Russian moves to the east.
Biden is just about ready to make a "major" speech on the war. We'll see if he has anything new after the NATO meeting.
"For God's sake this man cannot remain in power." Biden
That is new. He has never explicitly called to Putin to go.
He isn't leaving wiggle room for Putin.
The Russians came back with, "It is not up to Biden. It is up to the Russian people."
I don't recall Biden saying anything different. He was speaking to the Russian people. He didn't say the US would remove Putin.
"That is new."
And perhaps unwise. Or, at least, not thoroughly considered.
But Biden has long had a tendency to up and say what he thinks.
"It is not up to Biden. It is up to the Russian people."
And who the Hell else do they think he was talkin' to there?
The Ukrainians have bagged a seventh Russian general. WaPo
"BEIRUT — Qatari and Saudi officials are pointing to what they
say are unjust inconsistencies in how the West responds to
humanitarian strife: Acting swiftly to help Ukraine in a way
that conflicts and refugees in the Middle East have not seen.
"At the Doha Forum on Saturday, the crowd erupted in
applause when Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin
Abdulrahman al-Thani noted that the ‛humanitarian
suffering’ seen in Ukraine ‛has been the suffering of a lot of
countries in this region for years.’
"He said the overwhelming international response aimed at
helping Ukrainians should establish a precedent and likewise
be applied when the world is 'witnessing the brutality against
Syrians, Palestinians, Libyans, Iraqis or Afghans. He added that
he hopes it is ‛a wake-up call for everyone in the international
community to look at our region' and address the issues ‛with
the same level of commitment’ seen in Ukraine."
WaPo
Sorry to have to bring this news to them. (Mostly on account of it's a waste of my time trying to explain things to them that they're so strongly motivated to not understand.) But, it's one thing to get emotionally invested in the subjugation of a people attempting to walk the difficult road to peace and freedom and democracy.
It's quite another thing to try to sustain an emotional upset over which tribe of bloodthirsty bandits is or is not getting a leg up on the other tribe of bloodthirsty bandits.
It's also more of a clear and present danger when it is on your doorstep and may spread to your own country.
And the situation in Ukraine is an external power invading that country, not a civil war, such as occurred in Syria.
As for the other countries mentioned, again, who is doing the brutalizing?
Or are they saying they want the West to engage in regime change?
Didn't we try that and they weren't happy with the results?
The Ukrainians are fighting desperately for their freedom. They don't want to be dictated to by the Russian government.
"Or are they saying they want the West to engage in regime change?"
Probably not.
More to the point…. I don't think they were suggesting that Ukrainian refugees would be welcomed with open arms to Saudi Arabia, or the UAE, or any of the many other garden spots around the Middle East or Africa.
I'm still trying to figure out the parameters of the next stage of the Russia/Ukraine War.
The Russians have pulled back in many areas (especially across the northwest) and are in the process of 'regrouping' their forces all across Ukraine. (And Lukashenko has found a way for Belarus to be helpful again, serving once again as a staging area for Russian troops.) Not included in the Russian pull-backs; Kyiv, Mariupol, and Chernihiv. (The Russians seem to have a mind to reproduce Aleppo in Mariupol. They may get Kobanî instead.) The Ukrainians are firming up their defenses around the cities they still hold (those which are still livable), clearing out Russian positions they deem 'too close for comfort' to their remaining viable population centers.
Russian smaller artillery can lob shells 25 miles (large bore artillery even further), smaller rocket batteries can target to 40 miles; tactical ballistic missiles 200 miles; cruise missiles further yet. The Russians largely avoid contesting for Ukrainian air space, preferring to fire from a distance, largely from over the border. (Lending continued credibility to NATO's reluctance to provide more aircraft.)
So now we wait for one side or the other to break the pattern and set new parameters.
________________________________
While we wait… Ginni Thomas's e-mails to the Trump White House are proving an embarrassment but little more. She demonstrates an unbridled enthusiasm for avoiding the 2016 election outcome, by hook or by crook, but she seems to be a cheerleader rather than a ringleader. Even so it's fairly clear that her husband should have recused himself from a couple of Supreme Court cases already, and he did not. It's also true that there's no mechanism available to force him to act ethically in this regard nor to punish his flagrant ethical lapses.
I'm not sure if Sweden is trying to make the Middle East states feel better, but they have come out and said they can't take as many refugees as they did during the Syrian civil war.
I'm still trying to figure out the parameters of the next stage of the Russia/Ukraine War.
They seem to have decided to pull their forces back and just sit back and lob missiles at Ukrainian civilians and some actual military targets, such as ammo and fuel storage facilities.
Perhaps their strategy is to pulverize the whole country into one huge field and then rebuild it in their image. Of course, that will take money and workers.
I have heard that there are Ukrainian's who are Russian speakers who are now refusing to speak the language. While they may have felt a connection to Russia before the war, they are repudiating that now.
Personally, if I were a business, I would think twice about doing any business with Russia, unless Putin is no longer in power.
See, while Joe Biden may have spoken off the cuff with his remark about Putin at the end of his speech, he is just saying what many people are thinking. He was being honest.
But having said that, it will be up to those in Russia who actually have a real understanding of what Putin has done to Ukraine to mete out that punishment. At least if they actually have a conscious. I guess we'll see.
BTW, those planes and air defense systems that the Ukrainians want? If I were going to supply those I wouldn't mention it to the press. And I would tell the Ukrainians to continue to ask for them. Because sometimes you can still find an element of surprise, even in a war of attrition.
conscious.
Yeah, that should be conscience.
"They seem to have decided to pull their forces back and just
sit back and lob missiles…"
They settled on that strategy been almost three weeks now. They've been tweaking their model since, trying to make adjustments. (Notably, they tried to break through across the south of Ukraine; that eventually didn't work out either.) But they're still following the same basic game plan. Their problem seems to be an inability to figure out how to spin, as a glorious victory, what (currently) amounts to a reversion to the status quo ante.
Putin needs to be ready to tell the story of the glorious victory he brought to Mother Russia. (Eventually Putin's supporters are gonna figure out it was a real war after all, and he's gonna havta have something to show for it.) I don't think he'll be willing to accept a cease fire until he's got that story line prepared, the current show of negotiations notwithstanding.
"… and air defense systems that the Ukrainians want…"
I'm thinkin' the ground-based air defense systems are the more likely to show up--and, yeah, same thought has occurred to me--they might just show up 'on the down low' as the brothers sometimes say it.
I was skimming through the news this morning, glancing at pictures of Ukraine where the Russians have hit, skimming over the long lists of civilian targets, thoroughly disgusted with state of affairs in Putin's Russia today. And it occurred to me that there ought to be some way to lay the cost for rebuilding Ukraine on the Russian treasury after this is all said and done. We should look for some way to make that happen. (May never find it, but we oughta look.)
I had that same thought. War reparations are due.I
It sounds like there are those in Russia who are dressing up their windows and such with the letter "z".
I'm still not seeing anything Putin can dress up and sell to his people as a glorious victory in Ukraine. So, the war goes on.
"…there are those in Russia who are dressing up their
windows and such with the letter 'z'."
The war is widely popular in Russia.
If they are made to pay for the damages later those payments will be widely unpopular in Russia, but I don't see that as a good reason to let 'em off the hook for supporting the war now.
________________________________
Russia's war is being strongly supported by the government of India, some serious Indian government backed propaganda being circulated there on Russia's behalf. And it's seemingly finding a receptive audience among the Hindu citizenry. (Probably one of the few points where they'll agree with the Muslim minority.)
Gotta wonder if that support will hold up after the rise in basic food prices hits India this coming year.
________________________________
Off topic, briefly ― quaere: Will Ginni Thomas allow Clarence Thomas to recuse himself from the cases she's interested in? I mean, is recusal even an available option for him?
The war is widely popular in Russia.
They may rethink that once they figure out the number of losses they are racking up on the battlefield and as some things become scarcer and scarcer.
Or if they understand they have been lied to.
I mean, is recusal even an available option for him?
Depends on if she respects his position. He should have recused himself before, but didn't. So maybe that answers that.
Russia has promised (yet again) to observe and honor a cease-fire for Mariupol so that they can get the trapped civilians out along designated 'humanitarian corridors'. WaPo In the past these promises (for Mariupol at least) have proven to be little more than opportunities for the Russians to gun down the unarmed civilians who gathered in the designated locations in hopes of escaping the war zone.
We can only hope that this time proves different.
________________________________
"… and as some things become scarcer and scarcer."
The Russians don't have a history of surrendering due to privations. They're big on suffering and enduring it.
"Or if they understand they have been lied to."
Now that would probably have a greater impact, if they could be made to accept the truth. However, we've seen the force of dedicated, motivated beliefs among our own dedicated Trumpkins. The Russians will be equally resistant to accepting even incontrovertible truth inconsistent with their desired beliefs. If they are forced to accept the truth they'll simply shrug it off, and adopt new interpretations as support for their favored faerie tales, interpretations which can survive the new information without changing the desired conclusion.
Russians being Russians, what they're most likely to respond to is a military failure. So, I think what we're gonna havta hope for is a second massive Russian military failure.
They've finally come up with a 'Plan B'. (Unfortunately, it also calls for the continued slaughter of Ukrainian civilians.) While they maintain their high-explosive terror campaign against Ukrainian civilian population centers, they're going to reorganize their battle groups to try to cut off as much of the eastern half of Ukraine as they think they can manage to seize and hold (plus whatever sized southern corridor they can seize and hold to as far west as they can hold it). The contest will then come down to which side can maintain a war of attrition across a blasted landscape the longest.
Failure, in this context, would mean that the Russians were unable to hold a land corridor west from Russia even as far as Crimea, and were likewise unable to seize and hold significantly more land than the Ukrainians had already conceded to the guns of the Russian proxies holding out in the Donbas regions since 2014.
If the Ukrainians are able to drive the Russians back to, essentially, their pre-war borders (or less), we could reasonably consider that to be a generally unmitigated military failure of Putin's new 'Plan B'.
Quaere then: When the Ukrainians start pushing south from Kherson and Melitopol, perhaps even from the rubble of Mariupol, retaking their territory towards Crimea, where do they stop? Do they stop short of Sevastopol and Kerch, or do they not? GoogleMaps
Good question. They do want the Crimea back, and I suspect there are those within It's borders who are rather tired of Russian rule. Who knows they may actually be residing at that naval base.
There is a rumor going around that some Russian troops in Ukraine shot down one of their own planes.
Of course, it might not be true. Fog of war and all that.
But that doesn't mean Russians won't start to see Ukrainians lurking under their beds.
Ukrainians were suspected of having something to do with the recent explosion at an ammo storage facility in Russia. More likely it was a Russian soldier going out for a smoke who got too close to some unstable Soviet era ammo.
Really.
Gonna get rather crowded under that bed with the Ukrainians and NATO hiding there.
On another note, the study on the effectiveness of invermectin on treating Covid has shown that it does not prevent hospitilizations.
For most people this will not come as a surprise.
"There is a rumor going around that some Russian troops in Ukraine
shot down one of their own planes."
The Pentagon has confirmed that information. They believe it was probably accidental, probably.
Putin's approval rating is up to 83% (up from the prior 69% level--independent poll; government polling always shows him even higher). WaPo The "rally 'round the flag" effect isn't only applicable in these United States.
Ukraine's supporters are finally pledging delivery of long-range artillery, stuff capable of hitting back at the Russian sites shelling Ukrainian cities. 'Bout damn time.
I"ll say!!
It seems a fire broke out at a fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia. The Russians are blaming the Ukrainians. I believe that was where the explosion at the ammo dump took place too. Very sloppy maintenance on the part of Russia. Of course they blamed Ukraine.
"The Russians are blaming the Ukrainians."
Probably because of the two Ukrainian attack helicopters that flew over and shot up the place just before fire broke out.
Details...details...
The Russians have withdrawn from the Chernobyl exclusion zone. I honestly couldn't understand why on earth they would want to take up positions there in the first place. Now they may be contaminated with radiation after digging trenches in the ground there.
Who planned out this military campaign, an idiot?
"Who planned out this military campaign, an idiot?"
The Biden administration believes the entire thing has been planned within the walls of the Kremlin by Putin and a small group of his select advisors, known in Russian as the 'siloviki'. So far as American intelligence can determine there is no single battlefield commander on the ground in Ukraine.
This has led to fiascoes like the 40 mile long convoy sitting on the road to Kyiv for days on end. The order had come down from the Kremlin to move south and surround Kyiv. But the convoy was stopped due to poor maintenance, poor logistical support, and poor soldiering in the face of determined Ukrainian resistance.
However, there was no commander on the ground in Ukraine with the audacity to overrule the standing orders from the Kremlin to drive south (now impossible) and surround Kyiv (also now impossible). So, the standing orders were not countermanded no conflicting orders were given. The Russians had to wait days for new orders to come down from the Kremlin to get off the damn road and at least try to hide in the woods.
The same dynamic led to the occupation of Chernobyl. That seemed like a good idea from within the Kremlin. It was a large area, almost empty. So they moved in set up a command position there. But, the folks in the Kremlin who'd come up with that part of the plan hadn't considered the desire of the Russian soldiers to dig defensive embankments to protect themselves, nor the absolute need to dig latrines. There weren't any local commanders on the scene brave enough to prohibit digging up the radioactive soil, and also nobody in the Kremlin dealing with the problem (no one in the Kremlin expected the great Putin nor the vaunted 'siloviki' to be dealing with such mundane matters as soldiers burying their poop). So, the occupation of Chernobyl didn't work out well either. All because soldiers gotta poop, and they hadn't thought that one through, and yet the soldiers still had to poop.
"WASHINGTON — The Biden administration will work with
allies to transfer Soviet-made tanks to bolster Ukrainian
defenses in the country’s eastern Donbas region, a U.S. official
said on Friday.
"The decision to act as an intermediary to help transfer the
Soviet-made tanks, which Ukrainian troops know how to use,
comes in response to a request from President Volodymyr
Zelensky of Ukraine, the official said. It marks the first time in
the war that the United States has helped transfer tanks.
"The official said the transfers would begin soon, but declined
to say how many tanks would be sent, or from which
countries they would come. They will allow Ukraine to
conduct long-range artillery strikes on Russian targets in
Donbas, said the official, who spoke on the condition of
anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly."
NewYorkTimes
ditto:
"Ukraine had already found one source of tanks, capturing
at least 161 from Russia on the battlefield…"[as against 43
captured the other direction]
________________________________
There is an entire battalion of volunteers from Belarus fighting against the Russians and with the Ukrainians, in Ukraine. They are openly hoping to get the chance to extend the battlefield and fight the Russians in Belarus before this war is over.
...the entire thing has been planned within the walls of the Kremlin by Putin and a small group of his select advisors, known in Russian as the 'siloviki
So I was right...an idiot.
They will allow Ukraine to
conduct long-range artillery strikes on Russian targets in
Donbas.
They need to take out some of those missiles too. And the ships.
There has been a prisoner swap. The Ukrainians have gotten 86 soldiers back. I wonder how many Russians they had to give in trade?
At least now they don't have to feed them.
There is an entire battalion of volunteers from Belarus fighting against the Russians and with the Ukrainians, in Ukraine.
The Belarussians were also helpful in the destruction of rail lines into Ukraine.
They are openly hoping to get the chance to extend the battlefield and fight the Russians in Belarus before this war is over.
I wonder if those Chechens who are fighting in Ukraine feel the same way?
The Russians seem to be drawing down their forces in other areas they are ruling. It could leave them weaker in some places.
Russian propaganda has been good enough at home that they've now got a hard-ass contingent who're pissed at Putin for backing off of the assault on Kyiv. WaPo
And it appears that the 'backing off' has been completed. The Russians have abandoned the entire 'Kyiv Oblast'. Dead bodies are scattered all about the many smaller towns and villages. Many of them dead Russian soldiers. Others, civilians with their arms bound behind them and then a single head shot, point-blank range.
Now Putin will need a show of success in the east Ukraine; he'll need something to show to the Russian people as the gain from their cost. So, 'Plan B' is launched.
First rattle out of the box… Odessa was attacked from the air, missile strikes apparently. They hit an oil 'processing' plant, whatever that is, and a fuel depot.
The Ukrainians will need to win big once again.
Sláva Ukrayíni ― Слава Україні: Героям слава!
Thank you for the title.
Yes, I really do think they need the planes.
Welcome.
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