There comes a time when we arrive at a crossroads in history. The path we choose will affect all of us for generations to come. It is our responsibility to those who come after to recognize such a time.
We have been seeing the horrible scenes playing out in Ukraine at the hands of the Russian invaders. As they have pulled out of some areas in Ukraine they leave behind the evidence of what can only be described as war crimes. The city of Bucha is scattered with bodies, some with their hands tied behind their backs. They are uncovering mass graves. While we have seen the destruction to infrastructure, this is the first time we have really seen the butchery that the Russians dealt in. This is not just about the destruction of a country, but the destruction of a people.
It is time for us to remember the words of one of our former Presidents.
“It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain; that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people by the people for the people shall not perish from this earth.” Abraham Lincoln
I stand with the people of Ukraine and all of those who fight for their freedom.
143 comments:
Apparently the government of Russia is working on a new law that makes it a criminal offense for a company to leave Russia due to the sanctions. Now if that isn't a way to encourage people to leave I don't know what is.
"…the government of Russia is working on a new law that
makes it a criminal offense for a company to leave Russia due
to the sanctions."
Civil penalties (confiscation of property) for leaving Russia have been under consideration for almost a month, without any noticeable action to actually pass such a proposal. (If Putin wanted it passed it'd been passed already.) link This is the first I'd heard about any proposals to extend that notion to include criminal penalties. Probably won't pass as a criminal statute either. Probably just a bluff.
________________________________
It's getting harder and harder for me to map out an end-game for Putin's war against Ukraine, one that he can rationally sell back home as a glorious victory for Mother Russia over the Ukrainian Jewish Nazis.
A friendly puppet government ain't a feasible objective at this point.
A pacified Ukrainian population ruled from Moscow likewise ain't a feasible objective.
An unpacified sinkhole that eats Russian soldiers on a daily basis is a feasible objective, but it ain't gonna sell back home as a glorious victory for Mother Russia.
Legalizing the status quo ante via treaty, plus perhaps some modest territorial gains, might be sufficient for Putin's declaration of a glorious victory for Mother Russia, but that seems unlikely to be enough. The implacably hostile Ukrainian rump state that would leave behind certainly will not help achieve Putin's vision of a renewed 'Russkiy Mir' stretching across eastern Europe.
Stalin, confronted with a similar predicament, induced a famine in the Ukraine, now known as the Holdomor which killed millions (Stalin didn't allow a timely count to take place, but subsequent estimates range from 3.5 million to 10 million Ukrainians). And that may turn out to be Putin's answer as well; slaughter many millions of people, lay waste to Ukraine end to end, then abandon the husk (save for some desirable pieces), and declare the remaining ravaged and broken wasteland to be the glorious victory of Mother Russia over the Ukrainian Jewish Nazis.
The question then arises: Can he pull that off?
Well, why not? Who's gonna stop him, and how? He's got nukes if he needs to use them, as he keeps reminding us.
________________________________
Viktor Orbán has won a 4th term as Prime Minister of Hungary and 'little buddy' to Putin.
I think the European Union should explore the concept of ejecting member states from the Union.
(I think NATO should consider that concept as well.)
Well, no sooner do I mention the Holdomor than Politico.EU mentions it in an article about the current Russian assault against Ukraine's farming economy and infrastructure.
Probably just a bluff.
Could be. It would set a bad precedent.
It's getting harder and harder for me to map out an end-game for Putin's war against Ukraine.
Probably is for him too.
Yes, the complete destruction of Ukraine is a horrible possibility.
Who's gonna stop him, and how? He's got nukes if he needs to use them, as he keeps reminding us.
I think that if he does use nuclear weapons in Ukraine then whatever response we have in mind for his possible use of chemical or biological weapons would be triggered. Perhaps more intensely.
We do not need to use the same to make our point. We are not that desperate.
I am thinking that Putin has managed to scare those Russians who would oppose him into fleeing, by his draconian tactics in his own country. Those who remain are rather passive or under the misconception that they could actually vote Putin out of office in the next election.
They do not seem to realize they are living in a dictatorship. At least not ordinary Russians.
If I were Putin I would be concerned about his inner circle and his military.
But I am sure he knows that. Probably why he is so paranoid.
There seem to be Ukrainians who are returning to Ukraine from Poland.
But like those who are anxious to return to their homes after a natural disaster i think they may be returning too soon. They will be more mouths to feed and people to find housing for.
Biden's put out the call for Putin to be put on trial for war-crimes in Ukraine. AssociatedPress And our Ambassador to the UN has called for Russia to be expelled from the UN's Human Rights Council. That'll require a vote by the General Assembly.
"There seem to be Ukrainians who are returning to Ukraine
from Poland."
Been that way since about the third week in. Some of them will certainly regret having come back too soon. Some won't. Got 4 million Ukrainians out of the country already. Gonna be a lot of differing circumstances in those millions of people.
________________________________
Putin figures to shorten his supply lines by concentrating his attacks on the east and the south of Ukraine. Maybe also make it easier on his military personnel if they're not strung out quite as much.
To the south he can use his Black Sea Fleet to both move men and to shell inland. But, that gives the Ukrainians targets, i.e. that very same Black Sea Fleet. (The Black Sea ain't big enough to hide in.) We should now be surreptitiously training Ukrainian defense forces on how to use our Harpoon missiles--an anti-ship cruise missile that can be launched from shore. Just in case it turns out those might be handy in the near future. Or, maybe there's left over Russian made anti-ship missiles that could be had and that they might already be familiar with. (Norway makes some anti-ship missiles as well.)
We should also be figuring on how we can help the Ukrainians disrupt supply lines inside Russia proper.
(I think we do need to have an understanding that attacking Russian civilian populations is not an appropriate response, not if they're gonna rely on American or NATO provided munitions. I can see the Ukrainian argument in favor of it, but it'd still be a war crime, and we can't be knowingly involved in that.)
Yes, I've been thinking about all of those floating targets.
Do you remember the USS Cole? That was a small suicide craft that ripped that ship apart.
I am not suggesting a suicide mission for the Ukrainians, but a small boat might be able to sneak close enough to one of those ships and launch a Stinger or Javelin. I was just wondering if either would do enough damage to a ship?
We should also be figuring on how we can help the Ukrainians disrupt supply lines inside Russia proper.
Maybe that helicopter raid was a test for that. Of course, now the Russians will be looking for that.
I do think that Russia is doing a very good job of creating an enemy right on its doorstep. It's just not the one they thought it would be.
Zelenskyy has already made mention that the Ukrainian people would seek justice and if they didn't get it they might make their own. And he's such an innocuous looking fellow.
One Ukrainian man that has family in Russia is no longer speaking to them because they refuse to believe that Russia is responsible for the bloodshed that is taking place in Ukraine.
The seeds of hatred have been sown.
"I was just wondering if either would do enough damage to a
ship?"
Estimates are the 'small boat' carried between 400 and 700 pounds of high explosives. (Estimate varies by varied assumptions of how well the 'shaped charge' was shaped.)
________________________________
News coming in overnight suggests that the atrocities coming to light in Bucha are likely to prove fairly typical of the Russians' behavior across most of the territory they temporarily overran. Ain't gonna be a good look for the Russians as that information comes in.
________________________________
The Pentagon believes the Russian military is going to come out swinging, semi-desperate to redeem themselves, when they open up their 'Plan B' (which could happen here shortly). CNBC
We can expect them to start with an uptick in the shelling and bombing of Ukrainian civilian residential neighborhoods and infrastructure. That'll keep up while they refit the troops they've pulled out of the west and redeploy them east and south.
The new found sense of official military resolve may not be shared nor even understood by the common soldiers charged with implementing the new military attitudes. So, they may well react to the new pressures by becoming even more vicious towards the civilians they encounter than they were during the opening weeks. Whether this 'new attitude' will make the Russians better fighters is highly dubious proposition, but they probably will be considerably more vicious to the vulnerable. (Unfortunately, they will likely not be told that they need to dial back on their rapidly developing reputation for criminal brutality.)
________________________________
WashingtonPost says that the European Union subsidizes Hungary to the tune of $9 billion per year. And they suggest that money can legally be cut off as penalty for Victor Orbán's anti-democratic activities. Ain't quite the same as kicking them out of the EU, but it's a start.
The International Red Cross team that has been trying since Friday to reach Mariupol was 'detained' yesterday as they approached the city, about 12 miles out. They have been released overnight after 'negotiations' (unexplained negotiations, but they're apparently not going to try to make it to Mariupol today).
Supposedly the citizens of Mariupol can have access to a 'humanitarian corridor' to leave today in private automobiles (no buses, no trucks, no large-scale transportation and most certainly no observers from the International Red Cross; all sounds a little fishy to me).
Word is going around that the Russian troops that were pulled out are rather reluctant to go back in.
Same goes for troops pulled from other Russian ruled areas.
Some of the Russian soldiers had dug holes under their tanks and slept there to avoid being killed by roaming Ukrainian soldiers. Not pleasant in the cold and wet.
I can see why they may be reluctant to go back.
That raises a question, I wonder what use the Ukrainians can find for all of that scrap metal, formerly Russian tanks, that they have laying around?
It seems that a couple days after the Russians fired their hypersonic missile we test fired one. We just didn't mention it so as not to provoke the Rusdians.
I guess ours was succesful. We shot it from a B-52.
I've been wondering, Saddam Hussein had multiple body doubles, does Putin?
I don't know about Gaddafi.
The Russians have hit a civilian ship in the port of Mariupol. It is a Dominican flagged ship. The Ukrainians are trying to save the crew.
Lee
” It's getting harder and harder for me to map out an end-game for Putin's war against Ukraine, one that he can rationally sell back home as a glorious victory for Mother Russia over the Ukrainian Jewish Nazis.
A friendly puppet government ain't a feasible objective at this point.
A pacified Ukrainian population ruled from Moscow likewise ain't a feasible objective.
An unpacified sinkhole that eats Russian soldiers on a daily basis is a feasible objective, but it ain't gonna sell back home as a glorious victory for Mother Russia.”
Sums up a lot of my own thinking. I know, or rather think bc I can’t know, his hope now is for the Ukraine to:
1 sign over Crimea.
2 agree to some sort of autonomy for the Donbas and I believe he would be ready to agree that it could still remain Ukrainian but w some self rule, which of course in reality would mean Moscow rule.
3 for the Ukraine to agree to neutrality and scrap any plans of NATO membership. I believe he would also want them to scrap any plans for EU membership but I don’t think he would need that in writing as #2 pretty much would put an end to any such dreams anyway.
However, I am also convinced now that the Ukraine will never give him that win. Any leader of the Ukraine who agreed to that would be ousted rapidly.
So yeah, I really can’t see an end game here. Tragically Putin will also never give up wo some “win” to present so this could drag on for quite some time.
As for the war crimes, the rape, the torture, the disappearances and the executions w following mass graves committed by the Russian army you should not be surprised.
This is an article from admittedly 17 years ago about the military service in Russia and I think not much have changed:
https://www.vice.com/en/article/gqdx44/full-v13n4
If they do this to each other is it surprising the evil we now see used against Ukrainian military captives or even civilians?
It also speaks to how poorly the Russians are performing in war. They are moved not by loyalty to their fellow soldiers, something we know is the ONE major factor for morale in military units, but instead of fear of their superiors and even their “comrades”. I mean sharing a foxhole with a seargeant who at one point in time raped you will not really make you ready to put your life on the line for that guy…
"Word is going around that the Russian troops that were
pulled out are rather reluctant to go back in.
"Same goes for troops pulled from other Russian ruled areas."
Don't know that I'm surprised by any of that. They hit more resistance than they expected to see.
The Ukrainians have taken a bunch of captured working Russian tanks and put them to immediate use. I suppose the scrap will eventually be cleared and remelted and reused.
I'm not aware of any body doubles in use for Putin.
"The Russians have hit a civilian ship in the port of Mariupol.
It is a Dominican flagged ship. The Ukrainians are trying to
save the crew."
The Russian-backed 'Donetsk People's Republic' claims it was sunk by "Ukrainian nationalists".
________________________________
Marcus ignored the one scenario above ↑↑ that provided Putin with a solution to his current problem.
"And that may turn out to be Putin's answer as well; slaughter
many millions of people, lay waste to Ukraine end to end,
then abandon the husk (save for some desirable pieces), and
declare the remaining ravaged and broken wasteland to be
the glorious victory of Mother Russia over the Ukrainian
Jewish Nazis."
Lee C. @ Mon Apr 04, 05:09 am ↑↑
Didn’t ignore it. Don’t dis account it. I just hope, hope, hope that’s not where this clusterfuck is headed. Although sadly I believe it’s quite probable.
Also I kinda did say it but not in so many words. I said:
“ Tragically Putin will also never give up wo some “win” to present so this could drag on for quite some time.”
That kinda implies continued atrocities.
Just you Lee, you bickering soab, don’t you ever try to depict me as pro Putin or pro Russian in this here conflict.
Just bc I protested when YOUR forces where blowing up cities, committing war crimes like the marines who raped and burned those Iraqi girls, or when you dropped “Willy Pete” meaning white phosphorous over Fallujjah or when your military police were torturing detainees at Fallujjah… none of that means I make apologies for Russkie bastards doing the same and most likely much worse. You are scum. The Russians are lower than pond scum.
They are worse. Doesn’t make you good.
Prolly any invading army will fail to be good. We haven’t been in a war for 200 years but there is still a word for a hideout in German called a “scwedenschanse” meaning a hole to hide in from the Swedes. Back from the 30 year war in Europe when we Swedes behaved in a real barbaric way.
But yeah. The russkies seem like an order of magnitude more heinous.
"Also I kinda did say it but not in so many words…"
You may have thought you said it, but obliquely. However, that's where I was mentioning that Putin had been rattling his nukes. So, I wasn't implying that he was necessarily gonna let it drag out, as you seem to have assumed.
I have already acknowledged I have been naive when it comes to Putins readiness to do a full scale attack. I was hardly the only one thinking so. But yes, I was wrong.
That does in no way make me some sort of Putin apologist. I just, wrongly it seems, thought he was more sane than he apparently is.
But that does in no way mean I have some some sort of support for him now. I disliked him before, I hate him now. And he must lose.
It seems that some of the oligarchs are attempting to cut a deal. They will give up the locations of Putin's money they have been shielding if they can keep a fourth.
An interesting thought, if Putin is declared a war criminal would anyone cut a deal that entails giving him up?
Title: "Why Tracking Putin’s Wealth Is So Difficult"
The ICRC (Red Cross) has given up trying to get to Mariupol. WaPo This looks like brutality for the enjoyment of the brutality--looks like sadism for the ejoyment of it. I can't figure anything else the Putin and his 'siloviki' are possibly getting out of this torment of the civilians trapped in Mariupol.
The Ukrainians in Mariupol are reporting that the Russians have moved in mobile crematoria to get rid of the bodies of people they have murdered (my term).
They appear to be trying to hide what they have done in this city, rather than let the evidence speak for itself like in Bucha.
I wonder if anyone will be able to break through the mind fog of so many of the Russian people who are supporting Putin's war. I am starting to wonder.
Someone told me that one of the bodies of a woman in Bucha had a swastika carved on it. I haven't verified that. However, if true it is really possible these idiots believe what Putin has told them about Ukraine being infected with Nazis. Not that that at all excuses what they have done, but you gotta wonder what will happen if they realize they've been lied to and have murdered innocent people?
"…Russians have moved in mobile crematoria…"
Those were reported to be on the battlefields up north (Kyiv suburbs and Kharkiv) several weeks ago. They came in with the first rush of Russian troops, so the slaughter of civilians, at least at the seat of the Ukrainian government, was likely an integral part of Putin's 'Plan A' (now crapped out). I suspect Putin had Zelenskyy et al. especially marked for disappearance, and then torture, and had the cremation chamber on hand to hide the evidence. Now he's got something else to hide.
"I wonder if anyone will be able to break through…"
Our experience with the dedicated Trumpkins is not encouraging. I suspect the fans of Putin will be every bit as dedicated to their own alternate reality.
"…what will happen if they realize they've been lied to and
have murdered innocent people?"
For the most part they will never allow themselves to realize it. No matter the evidence, they will refuse to ever accept the truth. Again, our own experience with the dedicated Trumpkins should illustrate how that works. (And a whole generation of Germans have now died, pretending unto death that they didn't know what their own government was doing in those concentration camps. The stench would gag maggots for miles around; the smoke from the chimneys was visible for miles (and also stank of death); but they never admitted to ever noticing the smell or seeing the smoke.)
But the Ukrainians will remember for generations. They had previously been willing to accept the Russians as co-victims of the Communists and still 'brothers'. (Probably because they had their own memories to hide from--their brief flirtation with the Nazi's as their liberators from Stalin and the Holdomor mentioned earlier. ↑↑) That's over now; they'll now hate the Russians for a generation at least. And they'll remember and remain bitter even longer, even if it don't rate a full on 'hate'.
For the most part they will never allow themselves to realize it. No matter the evidence, they will refuse to ever accept the truth
I fear you are right. So many are turning away now because it is too horrible to think they may bear some responsibility for the horror that is Putin's war.
And there are many that just want to blame the West.
Like the Trumpkins before them they are not to be found to be wrong. No matter who it hurts.
Our military analysts think the Russians will take a few weeks at least to refit their troops for the new offensive in the east and south of Ukraine. Meantime they expect the long-range bombing strikes against Ukraine's cities to continue.
Hopefully that gives us a little time to slip in a few surprises for them.
It strikes me that this really should be a catalyst to move us away from fossil fuels. I know it won't happen instantly, but at least start.
No charges to be filed in the case of Amir Locke. The officer in question remembered to say he fired because he felt threatened by the sleeping black man he'd just broken in on and startled awake. The prosecutor pretty much had it right--that's a free kill shot defense for the police--an almost unqualified, unimpeachable immunity. (Inexplicably, the cop who shot Daunte Wright tried a different defense--I'm almost surprised the trial judge in that case didn't make her get a better lawyer, but she didn't.)
Yeah, I saw that. We really need to get rid of that no knock warrant.
The Russians are going to have problems getting the world to believe their lies when the Ukrainians have eyes in the sky recording what they are doing. This is probably the first war where drones have been used to this extent.
"We really need to get rid of that no knock warrant."
We really need to get rid of that misnamed get-away-with-murder special policeman's defense known as 'qualified immunity'. That's what we need to get rid of. Judges imagined it up out of whole cloth; it looks like it's gonna be up to the voters to eventually put it down.
"…the Ukrainians have eyes in the sky…"
And ears. The Germans have tapes of intercepted Russian communications between Russian soldiers (from the Wagner Group) discussing the murders in Bucha, in real time. WaPo
We really need to get rid of that misnamed get-away-with-murder special policeman's defense known as 'qualified immunity'.
I was going for what I thought might be the easier fix.
And ears.
I hadn't heard about that. I knew they listened in on other conversations.
That kind of explains how the US said they could probably identify the unit or units involved.
The Wagner Group? Murder is kind of their MO.
The UN has voted to kick Russia off of the Human Rights Council.
The host for the G20 have not, so far, uninvited the Russians. The US has said it will not attend any meeting with the Russians included.
Other countries have said they will not speak to Putin. It kind of reminds me of Amish shunning. The person lives, but doesn't really exist for others.
"I was going for what I thought might be the easier fix."
If we can get rid of the 'qualified immunity' doctrine the 'no-knock' warrants will taper off immediately thereafter, and I mean immediately; the cops and the jurisdictions which employ them will not want to be held accountable for what we know are the entirely predictable results.
How?
Lawsuits. Financial accountability. The police departments will quit allowing applications for 'no-knock' warrants just 'cause the addresses are in black neighborhoods. They will go back to the original necessary usages, where they knew who they were after and where they were and who was in there with them and if they were armed. And, most importantly, knew why they needed a 'no-knock' warrant and could justify that need in advance, something other than "cause it's fun", and "see, they did have a weapon after all"
Many believe that if this war drags on for too long it will seriously affect the entire world. Not just the two principal countries involved and the West, but others as well.
Just this morning I was reading that Peru was seeing riots because of high prices, well, for everything. Those are the kinds of countries least able to weather an economic storm like this.
Perhaps, since Russia will not withdraw as they should, we should just dump in the larger weapons to give the Ukrainians a chance to actually win? It might be the best bet in the long run for everyone. Well, except perhaps Putin. Getting things back to a more stable world would benefit everyone, including the average Russian.
NATO was never going to invade Russia. Nobody actually wants Russia. Too big and unwieldy. And Ukraine was never infested with hordes of Nazis. That was always Putin's excuse.
"Just this morning I was reading that Peru was seeing riots because
of high prices…"
I have been given to understand that India has a year's supply of wheat already in storage.
(I'm all for helping the Ukrainians win and toss the Russians out in spite of India's wheat supply.)
In fact, I've been pondering on the possibilities for a Ukrainian win.
I'm reminded that on occasion wars are ended in spite of what the politicians want because the invading army just decides they're not gonna take those orders anymore. It happened to Alexander the Great after his conquest of Afghanistan was too painful for his army to bear. (They did conquer Afghanistan, but they counted the cost afterwards and decided it was time to go home.) Alexander wanted to invade India after Afghanistan and his army instead invited him to lead them back to Macedonia, or go on east by himself if he was still dead set on goin' on east.
It also happened to Russia once before, at the end of World War I. The Russian Army decided that beating the Germans wasn't worth the price they were paying and quit taking orders to fight Germans. Called it off and went home. (the Germans were indeed losing that war as you will probably recall)
They have a bill, that the House needs to vote on, to revive Lend Lease.
I haven't heard where Biden stands on that.
Huh, now we have thieves drilling into gas tanks to steal gas. I would rather they just siphon it.
Can't imagine that is the safest method either. But on the other hand they were wearing their mask in the video I saw. A dual purpose item.
Tornado sirens being tested and it's snowing. Oh the weirdness of a Minnesota spring.
"On Wednesday, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba
expressed his gratitude to the Biden administration for passing
the bill to take a first step towards reviving the Lend-Lease
Act."
link
Good, progress.
"Nobody actually wants Russia. Too big and unwieldy."
I've been thinking on that.
Could be that in the future all that steppes and tundra might turn into farms that'd outclass the American MidWest when it was at its finest. Or, could be it'd turn into a continent-wide desert that'd make the Sahara look like a child's sandbox in comparison. All depends on how weather patterns evolve in the globally warmed world we're making for mankind's children.
Mariupol moves east and north:
Kramatorsk, Ukraine
"A missile strike at a crowded train station in eastern Ukraine
on Friday killed at least 39 people and wounded nearly 90,
according to Ukrainian officials, who blamed Russia for hitting
a major evacuation point for the many trying to flee before an
expected stepped-up offensive."
NYT
The railway station had been the main point of evacuation for the region--no telling how long it'll be out of action now. This is terrorism masked as war; state terrorism as official Russian public policy.
Horrific Russian air strike on a train station that was being used as an evacuation point for people in eastern Ukraine. 39 killed and 300 wounded. Hospitals are overwhelmed with the wounded.
The Russians knew these were civilians.
Beat me yo it again.
To
Could be that in the future all that steppes and tundra might turn into farms that'd outclass the American MidWest when it was at its finest.
Yes, I did consider that. We would still not want them.
China is another story.
The Russians may want to learn Mandarin if they haven't already.
The Ukrainians are now asking for modern American/NATO weapons. NYT They needed Soviet weapons when they first started out--they had no time to learn how to work the weapons they were taking to the field--needed stuff they already knew how to use efficiently right away.
But, as it drags out, there's time to train them on the good stuff we can provide. I think we oughta honor that request. (In fact I was thinking it was getting time for that even before the squib appeared in the New York Times.)
Picture of a launch stage of one of the missiles that carried warheads to the Kramatorsk train station. link The white Cyrillic writing on the side says "For the Children".
As brutal as the Russians are i would not want to be turned into a walking zombie whose culture has been wiped off the face of the Earth.
The future of Russia.
That actually was what that other post I wrote was about. If they didn't want to be a rump state of China they needed to keep a balance and that meant keeping some ties to the West.
They are in the process of breaking those ties. To fix this they need to withdraw from Ukraine. But they won't as long as Putin is in power.
think we oughta honor that request.
Agreed.
The white Cyrillic writing on the side says "For the Children".
Maybe they deserve the Chinese.
They keep this up and eventually the Chinese won't want to be seen with them either. (They'll still help, but surreptitiously.)
We would still not want them.
I will say that I know that all Russians are not like the Russian military. There are good people there. I would still be willing to reach out in friendship to them and perhaps trade with them. But I still would not want to run their government as an invader.
I rather think that even India is having second thoughts.
Lynnette:
” Huh, now we have thieves drilling into gas tanks to steal gas. I would rather they just siphon it.
Can't imagine that is the safest method either. But on the other hand they were wearing their mask in the video I saw. A dual purpose item.”
Probably they are siphoning diesel fuel. It wont ignite from a spark. You could even throw a lit match into a bucket of diesel fuel and it will be the same result as if you threw it into a bucket of water. Gasoline is a whole other story where a spark might cause an explosion. But still, even in that case it would be quite safe to drill into the gas tank bc there would be no spark.
Lee
“I think we oughta honor that request.“
Agreed. The combined west should support the Ukraine with as many anti tank weapons as possible. When it comes to anti aircraft, sure that too, but there is the danger of subsequent proliferation. We wouldn’t want hundreds or even tenths of Stinger missiles to get lost and one day end up in Isis hands.
So maybe a whole bunch of portable anti tank weaponry but not so many small anti aircraft but rather bigger systems like the S300 Russian made one that can not be easily siphoned away and sold at the black market is the best idea.
The very best way was if there was a way to “geolocate” each individual weapon and send a kill switch into each one that ventured out of the designated area it was supposed to function in. But I’m just speculating here and that’s not likely doable, yet.
All I know that most of the weapons in all gang violence in Sweden comes from the Balkans and their wars where weapons were all around and ended up anywhere. That might well happen after this Ukraine conflict is over, whatever way it ends, and then ok, AK47s we already have that shit here so some more will be more of the same. But Stinger missiles… I really don’t want those to get lost in the fog of war and end up in the wrong hands.
There is talk that both Finland and Sweden may join NATO.
What is your vote Marcus? Yes or no?
It is regular gasoline tanks that they have been drilling into. Although I wouldn't be surprised if there are also diesel thieves out there.
It is an expensive fix for the owners of the vehicles.
What the Hell is Putin thinking?
I been pondering some on the question over the evening. And I've not gotten any closer to an answer. (Driving back the International Committee of the Red Cross from Mariupol; firing anti-personnel munitions at the civilian evacuation central platform in Kramatorsk; all the other war crimes, all coming to light, and the Russians so obviously delighting in their work--what the Hell is he thinking?)
It makes no sense. Putin doesn't have a history of not making sense, but this makes no sense.
I can come up with the standard speculations about his anger breaking through, and an intent to terrorize the Ukrainians into submission, and his intent to put the 'fear-of-Putin' into Western Europe, and all that standard stuff that people speculate about. But none of it seems to ring true. This conduct is too egregious; too clearly counter-productive to his (assumed) goal of rebuilding a Russian Empire.
I have noticed that whenever Biden says something about Putin personally, Putin seems to think it necessary to send his people out to talk about Biden. Scholz of Germany, Macron of France, Johnson in England do not seem to draw the same quick response. Unfortunately, that data doesn't seem to help me with my question.
And, I've been flirting with the idea that Putin wants to establish an image of immunity, of impunity--for some reason yet to be revealed. But that's not makin' a lot of sense yet either (as you might gather from the 'reason yet to be revealed' part of that speculation.)
_________________________
(Noted in passing: 'non-sparking' drill bits)
The Biden administration has now promised an American-made, American-crewed Patriot missile system to Slovakia. So, the Slovaks' old S-300 air defense missile system is now being packed up for delivery to Ukraine. We need to see more of this. (We know Ukrainian military crews are being trained outside of Ukraine by the American military--we don't know specifically what they're learning, or where they're gathered, but we do know that we're currently training them in something and it's not taking place in Ukraine. I hope to hear soon that they were learning how to work American-made anti-aircraft and anti-ship missile systems.)
Russia has finally decided to name a single unifying commander for its war on Ukraine. They've chosen Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, currently commander of Russia's southern military district with extensive combat experience in Syria.
This conduct is too egregious; too clearly counter-productive to his (assumed) goal of rebuilding a Russian Empire.
Yes. It seems to be deliberately provokotive. I think I asked once before, is he trying to start a war with NATO?
But not just him. The Russian military leadership also does not care. You can hear that in the recorded communications between the Russian commanders and those on the ground in Bucha. They said kill them all despite the fact they were civilians.
Hmmm...so much for spell check. provokative
but we do know that we're currently training them in something
The story going around is that it is the switchblade drones.
Russia has finally decided to name a single unifying commander for its war on Ukraine.
Good to have a scapegoat waiting in the wings.
I wonder if he is going to visit the battlefield?
They were just discussing the question of the Russian tactics on CNN. Their take on it is that Russia wants to subjugate Ukraine and they Can't do it with forces on the ground because when they run up against the Ukrainian military they lose. So they sit back at a safe distance and shell civilians.
They are saying that the Russian military in this conflict has been degraded by 25%.
I wonder if that includes the Russians who contaminated themselves when they wandered around and dug in the Red Forest in the Chernobyl exclusion zone?
"Good to have a scapegoat waiting in the wings."
That must have crossed the mind of Gen. Dvornikov as well, but he took the job anyway.
"I wonder if he is going to visit the battlefield?"
Been a lot of that happenin' to Russian generals.
________________________________
"Their take on it is that Russia wants to subjugate Ukraine and
they Can't do it with forces on the ground because when they
run up against the Ukrainian military they lose."
Given the obvious delight the Russians take in their brutality, I would suggest their goal is more than to merely 'subjugate' Ukraine. I think they must want to degrade, hopefully to destroy, those parts of Ukraine that they cannot hope to occupy long-term. (It still does not fully explain the concentration on civilian evacuation routes and hospitals and bomb shelters.)
________________________________
Convention wisdom has it that Russia will have an easier time of it, concentrating on the east and the south. In the east the terrain is flat and open--farm fields instead of the woods and pastures of the north, better suited to the Russians' superiority in armor and artillery. In the south they have the support of the warships, the Russians' Black Sea Fleet. Both have shorter supply routes to Russian war stores.
Conventional wisdom also holds that Putin will want demonstrable wins on the battlefield to cheer about during the annual Russian celebrations of May 9th known as "Victory Day" over the Nazis at the end of WWII (the real Nazis). So, things might hot up here real quick.
Time will tell if the conventional wisdom holds true this round.
Joining NATO.
YES.
but only if Sweden and do Finland do I it at the same time. Which I believe well do in a few months.
The Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church has called on his followers to "unite…around the authorities"; clearly he meant to call for support for Putin there, although he declined to name him. Reuters
The President of Mexico, after better than a month, finally bowed to the pressure and labeled Putin's invasion of Ukraine "unacceptable". WaPo
It does look like Ukraine will be getting some coastal defense systems. Boris Johnson has said the UK will provide some of that. I don't know when or how much. But hope it is soon.
There is an 8 mile long convoy of Russian tanks headed toward the eastern theatre. Seems a little short, compared to the earlier 40 mile convoy which made its way toward Kyiv. Could to a decoy? Or are they short on help?
Or perhaps they think they will finish of Mariupol in short order and will have those forces coming up from the south?
but only if Sweden and do Finland do I it at the same time.
It does kind of look like they are coordinating that.
There will a runoff election in France as no candidate has come out with a majority.
Apparently Marine Le Pen is showing strongly and Macron is not doing as well as we could have hoped.
I will hope that Macron pulls it out or we will have a president in France who is enamored of Putin just as Trump is.
Unfortunately Putin's propaganda is effective outside his country too.
"Or are they short on help?"
They're scrambling for soldiers. Looks like their attempts to recruit in the Middle East haven't been very successful. They're now requesting support from "Transnistria", an unrecognized (save for Russia) breakaway from Moldova, and previously a destination for Russian soldiers rather than a source. And they're requesting reënlistments across the board from Russian soldiers mustered out up to ten years ago.
________________________________
The numbers I was seeing late last week showed Macron leading Le Pen by as much as 6 points, but she was closing. He beat her by 4.5 points on election day, so that's about what I might have expected. I think he'll pull further away from her in the runoff.
________________________________
National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, said on Sunday that the brutality unleashed against Ukrainian civilians was part and parcel of Putin's original invasion 'master plan'. He says the Russians wanted to terrorize and subjugate those Ukrainians who resisted the Russian takeover. Apparently they did not realize that'd be whole damn country--they'd sorta gotten carried away by their own propaganda. Putin had convinced himself it'd only be a small portion of the population who resisted and nobody wanted to tell him any different.
So, they ended up invading under standing orders to 'terrorize and subjugate' all who resisted--which turned out to be pretty much everybody. And, like with the 40 mile long column broken down on the road…. Nobody was gonna step up and give new orders. Now the pattern's set. And now they're doublin' down on that strategy with the appointment of General Dvornikov.
So: "What the Hell was Putin thinkin'?" Turns out that Putin wasn't thinkin', not by Sullivan's theory anyway. Just doin' what comes natural. The wide-spread brutal slaughter of civilians is just the natural result of Putin doin' what comes natural to him.
The Russians claim they were able to take out those S-300 missiles that Slovakia gave to Ukraine over the weekend (missile strikes from the Black Sea Fleet). Nobody's confirmed that yet.
They're scrambling for soldiers.
It appears they have been doing that for years. Marcus is right about the hazing being a huge problem. That has encouraged many "recruits" and their parents to find ways to avoid service. The Russian military is a bit of a mirage with the number of really capable soldiers less then they would like us to believe. And those contract soldiers who survived in Ukraine are not ready to re-up. They have also spread the word that Ukraine is not the place you want to be.
The Russians also found that many of the Muslims who joined terrorist groups in Chechnya were veterans of Russian military service. They have been trying to lower the number of recruits who are Muslim.
Russia, like other countries, is also suffering from a lower birth rate, so there are simply fewer 18 yr olds to conscript into the military.
So the unprofessional behavior of the Russian military in Ukraine is not a surprise.
We should get the planes to Ukraine if they will prove effective.
Dang it! 30's for highs and 20's for lows and snow again! It was in the 60's on Sunday and I was able to vacuum my yard. I was hoping to see the last of the snow and low temps.. :(
There are reports that there may have been a Russian chemical attack in Mariupol.
"There are reports that there may have been a Russian
chemical attack in Mariupol."
Evidence for that is looking a little 'iffy' this morning.
Evidence is much better for the proposition that Russian forces intentionally scattered land mines and unexploded ordinance around for returning civilians to stumble across in those areas of northern Ukraine they recently pulled out of.
That would be a defined 'war crime' as well.
I am sure there all sorts of rumors going around. They are watching.
The Russians have used cluster bombs, which are also a banned weapon. They do have hard evidence of that.
The Chinese have sent anti-aircraft systems to Serbia. Rather an odd move.
Apparently there was a cyber attack in Ukraine against their power grid. It was stopped.
Heavy rain is expected in eastern Ukraine. Russian tanks may not do so well in the mud.
"Rather an odd move."
And they made sure we knew. It was an intentional poke, lookin' for a reaction. That much at least. Whether it was anything more than that remains to be seen.
________________________________
"Heavy rain is expected in eastern Ukraine. Russian tanks may
not do so well in the mud."
Yeah, I heard that. It then occurred to me that Russia started this operation at the end of February to avoid the 'mud season' in Ukraine. That didn't go too well. The tanks kept breaking down or running out of fuel. This turned the tanks into targets. (Plus, seems the spring thaws may have come early this year--or maybe the winter didn't set hard enough-whichever/if).
So, now that they're full into the Ukrainian mud season, they open up 'Plan B' in the broad mud flats of the eastern Ukrainian wheat fields, where the hoped for Russian advances would be heavily tank dependent.
This does not strike me as learning from experience.
Woulda thought Putin would have that 'tanks as targets' thing figured out by now.
(The tanks could still be useful as artillery, if the Russians actually had any need for additional artillery in the neighborhood, which they don't. But they're also short range compared to what the Russians already have in there.)
I wonder how well those switchblade drones work against stuck in the mud Russian tanks? (I also 'spect Ukraine's still got several of those Turkish TB-2 drones still working as well.) And I wonder what else we got might be useful against stuck in the mud Russian tanks? Wonderin' 'bout stuff they could fire from a significant distance.
Speaking of China, I'm not do sure that their zero tolerance for Covid outbreak s is working out so good for them. There seem to be a lot of very angry hungry people in Shanghai.
Not a real good look.
Typos...bad fingers..
Putin has come right out and said there will be no withdrawal until they have achieved victory.
Looks like they are using what appear to be cluster bombs in Kharkiv.
Yeah, Putin seemed a little upset with Turkey over their supplying those drones to Ukraine. Guess that yells us how effective they are.
I'd like to see some of them used against those Russian ships in the blockade.
"sigh"
tells
A window on China has opened up.
Anonymous Twitter users are exposing the extreme nationalism and pro-Russian sentiment circulating online in China -- and Beijing is not happy about it.
Scores of screen-grabbed posts from China's most popular social media platforms have been translated and shared on Twitter in recent weeks, offering Western audiences a rare glimpse into the Chinese internet.
Among those posts: a prominent military blog falsely claiming a Russian attack on a train station in Kramatorsk was actually carried out by Ukraine, a well known media commentator dismissing the atrocities in Bucha, and a vlogger with hundreds of thousands of followers using a misogynistic term for Ukraine.
The posts appear courtesy of anonymous Twitter users who say their aim is to expose Western audiences to the true extent of pro-Russian or nationalistic content on China's heavily censored platforms.
There are reports that the Ukrainians hit the Russian ship Moskva with 2 Neptune missiles and it is on fire. The crew have evacuated the ship.
On the other hand Mariupol looks like it may fall to Russian forces.
"Putin has…said there will be no withdrawal until they have
achieved victory."
However, he has significantly dialed down his definition of what would be a Russian 'victory' over Ukraine. He's now willing to accept a lot less than the realization of his initial grand imperial plan, and call it a victory nonetheless.
________________________________
"Anonymous Twitter users are exposing the extreme
nationalism and pro-Russian sentiment circulating online in
China…"
The online Chinese advocacy for Russia was in the news weeks ago (I even made a brief mention of it), but I guess this points up the role social media now plays in spreading both news and lies. For some folks things aren't real until they become significant on the 'social' media.
While we're on the related subject of 'extreme nationalism and pro-Russian sentiment', Russian propaganda for its own citizens is ramping up hostility to Ukrainians in general--Nazis all, supposedly and worthy of the treatment they've been getting from the Russian occupiers, which treatment, of course, the Russians actually deny inflicting. WaPo
________________________________
"…Mariupol looks like it may fall to Russian forces."
I understand that story is being heavily promoted by the Russians. Doesn't necessarily make it false though. Things are indeed lookin' grim there for the Ukrainian defenders.
And even as Russia is trying to swallow Ukraine China continues to settle in in the disputed territories in the east. Slowly nibbling at Russia's fringe.
I wonder, will China be ready yet to supply needed parts for Russian factories or will they wait in hopes that Russia is further weakened?
It seems there may be a sudden demand for trucks in Russia.
I also wonder, the Russians have been "gifting" Ukraine with large amounts of explosives, can those be repurposed? Such a waste to just blow them up in a field.
"…can those be repurposed?"
IED's are too much trouble to go to when one has already has enough explosives that don't have to be improvised. And we should be making sure the Ukrainians have all those they might need.
I hope we are.
The RNC has voted unanimously to withdraw from the Commission for Presidential Debates. Someone has complained about how the 2020 debates were handled. Someone felt they were a little biased. And someone pulls the RNC strings.
Sad, very sad.
The argument over whether or not the Ukrainians sank the Russian warship Moskva has been partially settled. The Russians have finally admitted that it sank. So, there's agreement on that part of it. They still claim it sank as the result of Russian incompetence rather than a Ukrainian missile.
I was wondering which would be the lesser of two evils. Apparently that is Russian incompetence. Coincidentally happening in the midst of a war they started.
"… the lesser of two evils. Apparently that is Russian
incompetence."
Curious choice isn't it?
And, so far as I know, the Russians still don't have control over Mariupol. There may yet be choices there as well.
Speaking of choices: Russia has issued a written warning to the Biden administration threatening "consequences" for our decision to provide arms to Ukraine. WaPo
The Pentagon has noted that the other five main Russian warships in the Black Sea ('other' than the now sunken Moskva) have all moved significantly further south, further away from the coast of Ukraine. WaPo (I reckon that kinda settles the question of whether or not the Ukrainians sank it as they claimed.)
I think that Russian warning arrived the day before Biden announced the new lot of weapons supply for Ukraine. I guess that was his response.
I suppose we can really assume that if Russia says something is so, it really isn't.
I recall a conventional wisdom recently holding that Putin would highly desire a series of military victories to punctuate the traditional Russian celebrations of 'Victory Day' over World War II's Nazi enemies, due on the 9th of May. (The Russians were not then involved in the war in the Pacific against the Japanese, didn't get officially involved in that conflict until after we'd nuked Hiroshima in August.)
But, the Russians don't seem to be on the threshold of opening any of those military campaigns. And they now have a bare three weeks to bring them to a successful conclusion. The threat keeps coming, but the campaigns…not so far.
I begin to think that there must be something wrong, either with the conventional wisdom on this matter, or with the Russians' ability to organize what they would expect to be a successful military campaign in the Donbas or on the southern coasts of Ukraine.
________miscellaneous___________
"Rows upon rows of graves are being dug in Russian-occupied
Kherson, according to recent satellite imagery analyzed by
London-based nonprofit Centre for Information Resilience
(CIR)."
WaPo
"ISTANBUL — Naval mines discovered in Turkish waters in
recent weeks are Soviet-era ordnance that had been stored in
Crimea, under Russian control since 2014, and may have been
deliberately left near Turkey’s coastline by Russian vessels to
discourage commercial shipping, a Ukrainian official said
Friday."
WaPo
I have been wondering if that note the Russians sent to us regarding our supplying of Ukrainian forces was motivated by something else, besides the fact that those weapons have done a good job in helping the Ukrainians fight off the Russian advances.
The Russians have been going through their own ammunition at an alarming rate. I wonder if their true timetable is not a specific date, but the time when they will start to run short of the missiles and artillery rounds they need to bomb Ukraine back to the stone age?
If the Russians manage to occupy Ukrainian land, will they be able to hold it without the needed ammunition for their weapons?
It is a race between Ukraine, its supporters, and Russia as to who will run out of ammunition. as well as fighters, first.
In WWII our factories were working overtime to supply the troops. That Rosie the Riveter thing. There was rationing of vital materials in the civilian sector that were used for weapons and ammunition.
Which leads me to mention that idiot Texas governor who has been causing a logjam of trucks on the border because he is requiring complete searches of all trucks instead of randomly. He is looking for drugs and illegal migrants apparently. Instead we are seeing rotting fruits and vegetables and more supply chain snarls.
The legacy of Donald J. Trump.
Rows upon rows of graves are being dug in Russian-occupied
Kherson...
In the Kyiv region they have found upwards of 900 bodies. Death and destruction is the true legacy of Vladimir Putin. If there is anyone who should be compared to the Nazis it is the Russian government and their military.
And apparently not all of the talking heads on Russian government sponsored TV have gotten the memo regarding who was responsible for the sinking of the Moskva. One has gone on a rant suggesting that the Russians should bomb Kyiv in retaliation for the loss of the ship. Obviously, he is blaming the ship's loss on the Ukrainians. Never mind that it is solely the responsibility of the Russian government. They are the ones who started an unnecessary war of aggression against their neighbor. All that results from that is their fault. It would not have happened if they had not invaded.
"The Russians have been going through their own
ammunition at an alarming rate."
The Russians don't seem unduly alarmed. They're back to shelling western Ukrainian targets today using what the Pentagon is calling 'precision munitions'. But, Putin's not been acting like Putin since the day he sent his army over the border. Hard to say what he's up to or what he's gonna do next--this isn't normal behavior for him, so predicting him on the basis of his past behavior doesn't work either.
The timing to open Russia's 'Plan B' is almost entirely under Putin's control. (The outcome may be fairly contested, but the opening date is pretty much Putin's to decide.)
The Ukrainians have said that they shot down cruise missiles in the western area of Ukraine. The missiles were launched from planes that flew out of Belarus.
Another thought on the Donbas. The Russian shelling and destruction in that region has seriously pissed off the ethnic Russian population that would normally be sympathetic to Russia. They will not be so pleased to fall under Russian rule as Moscow may assume.
There has been some speculation that Putin's health is not the best. I don't have any verification of that. Just a rumor.
"The Russian shelling and destruction in that region has
seriously pissed off the ethnic Russian population that would
normally be sympathetic to Russia."
I've read reports both ways on that. I've read that 'Russian speaking' Ukrainians in the region are disenchanted with Putin and with Russia now, and I've read otherwise. I'm guessing there's no solid monolithic choice being made there by the 'Russian speaking' Ukrainians. The reports I see probably depend on who's being asked, and maybe on who's doing the asking as well.
(And, yeah, I've seen the speculations that Putin's health isn't great as well, but there's little to back that up. It's all speculation.)
Russia has banned Boris Johnson and others from entering Russia.
I'm quite sure that they will survive that sanction. I am pretty sure that few people from the West really want to visit Russia right about now.
More news of indiscriminate shelling by Russia in various areas of Ukraine. Much of it civilian targets. They seem intent in wiping Ukraine off the map.
Abbot has repealed his order requiring more intense inspections of trucks at the border. Too many people throwing rotten tomatoes at him, perhaps.
I wonder, would the Russians use a battlefield nuclear weapon if it meant it would impact their forces in Ukraine?
The notion of shelling cities until the population demands their own side surrender has a long history. It was recently a favorite of Adolph Hitler, most famously in the so-called 'Battle of Britain'. The Allies adopted the tactic in return with saturation bombing by the Brits and the U.S. across much of Germany, once air superiority had switched to disfavor the Germans.
In spite of much use, there's precious little evidence that the tactic works. Lots of very knowledgeable people claim to have stats supporting the argument that the tactic is actually counterproductive. It hardens the resolve of those who survive the bombing runs. Or so they say.
"I wonder, …"
Yes, I think they would. They had no compunctions about sending their own soldiers in to set up base camp on the grounds of Chernobyl.
"Major General Vladimir Frolov, deputy commander of the
8th Combined Arms Army, has become the eighth Russian
general to be killed in battle."
TheSun
The Russians are claiming to have shot down a Ukrainian military transport plane over Odessa. There has been no verification. That sounds like it would have been a rather risky corridor to take, albeit a closer route.
I saw that about the General. I am starting to look at those stories as feel good stories. I am thinking taking out artillery would serve better.
But perhaps my thinking is merely short term. Taking out the upper Russian brass may have more of a long term detrimental effect that could impact the future course of the war. Or it could make the Russian military rudderless and therefore more dangerous.
"The Russians are claiming to have shot down a Ukrainian
military transport plane over Odessa."
Tells us something already. The Russians consider it newsworthy that they finally got one, if they finally got one.
"But perhaps my thinking is merely short term."
Perhaps. Short term that tells us they're still having troubles at the front, sufficient trouble to require a general to make an appearance to try to deal with it.
________________________________
And, for the 15th consecutive day--the Russians are on the verge of finally overrunning Mariupol.
________________________________
A quick review of the morning war predictions reveals that the mainstream media is still committed to belief in the imminent opening of Putin's 'Plan B' offensive in east Ukraine.
Nobody's still writing about significant victories to tout for the upcoming Russian 'Victory Day' holiday, but they're still sure the eastern offensive is about to open any day now.
Thing is, they've got a new in-theatre commanding general, Gen. Alexander Dvornikov. He may not be in any hurry to rack up victories for the holiday in Moscow, or in any hurry in any event, irrespective of the holidays. He may wanna take his time and get it right, or close to right as he can get it.
So, we wait. And the renewed shelling of Ukraine's cities is no less than I'd been expecting while we wait. Revenge for the Moskva be damned. The Russians were gonna shell the civilians in Kyiv and elsewhere anyway. That was always part of 'Plan B'.
I think you are right. "Softening the battlefield" in their words.
Hopefully we will be able to actually get some equipment in to fight some of that while we "wait" for Russia's next major move on the ground.
Post a Comment