Sunday 21 May 2023

A Small Light

I was paging through my most recent copy of National Geographic and came across a short story about Miep Gies. I would not be surprised if you don’t know who she was. I didn’t. She was the woman who hid Anne Frank and her family from the Nazis. She was an ordinary woman who did an extraordinary thing. Although she never considered her actions to be unusual. Someone has made a miniseries, "A Small Light", about her life and the backstory behind what she did for the Frank’s. It aired on National Geographic on May 1 and Disney+ the next day. I will have to see if I can find it.

The actor who portrayed Otto Frank, Anne’s father, was Liev Schreiber, whose grandfather emigrated from Ukraine. This is what he had to say about Gies:

“The Miep Gieses of the world-the small lights, the extraordinary ordinary people who did something, who pushed back against tyranny, who pushed back against authoritarians, who pushed back against fascists-remembering what they accomplished, I think, gives us some perspective on what we can accomplish.”

In the world we are living in today it is important that those small lights be seen, and heard.

So I have a video of a statement made in court in Russia by a woman who was just sentenced to prison for telling the truth about Putin’s war.  Please listen.




"The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."


Slava Ukraini


86 comments:

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

   
      "Ukraine’s military said its stated goal is to now encircle
      Bakhmut to force Russian troops to defend their ground."
      WaPo

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "There was an attack in the Belgorod region of Russia."

And the local authorities seem to be freakin' out about it.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I've noticed that the Russians are intending to try the dissident Russian brigade members as criminals, terrorists.  Those men were fighting in uniform against a declared "special military action" (a/k/a a war to most people).  Under the Geneva Conventions, which Russia has adopted by treaty, those men are entitled to 'prisoner of war' status if captured (unless, of course, they shed their uniforms and try to sneak back into Ukraine or disappear into the Russian civilian population).
Nobody seems to want to mention that.

But, I take it as just another indication that Putin is trying to reverse the affects of the European Enlightenment, and trying to withdraw Russia from the 'international law' conventions it's given lip service for hundreds of years now.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

...those men are entitled to 'prisoner of war' status if captured ...

I am hoping they have slipped back to Ukraine. I know there may have been tempting targets close by, but sometimes it is better to live to fight another day.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There's a Frontline special on PBS tonight at 9:00, "Once Upon a Time in Iraq: Fallijah".

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Fallujah

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Fallujah"

I missed the show, but I got it on the DVR.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

*sigh*

I missed it too. I fell asleep. I will have to look for it on Youtube. I should have planned and recorded it too.

Btw, it appears that another Russian official, Pyotr Kucherenko, has died. He fell ill on a flight from Cuba back to Russia. Heart problem or something else? He was a critic of Putin's war and had expressed concern before the trip that he was being forced to continue on in his job. They had taken his passport.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "He was a critic of Putin's war and had expressed concern
      before the trip that he was being forced to continue on in his
      job."


Lotta Putin's critics meet untimely ends.  At least this one didn't jump out of a tall building.
Officially, the Russian government denies that it has forbidden officials to resign their posts.  (But I think that's gonna get some of them a trip up a tall building.)

Changing subjects:  Prigozhin claims the Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut has begun.  And he's openly said the word 'revolution' against Putin, although he's not suggested that he'd be part of one.  Still, that kind of talk could easily get him an assist up the stairwell of a tall building somewhere.

And smoke has been seen (and filmed) swathing the Russian Ministry of Defense building in Moscow.  Although the Kremlin insists that this time the presence of smoke does not mean there was a fire.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It looks like the incursion by The Freedom of Russia Legion is over. They seem to have withdrawn, looking rather happy. So I would guess that they achieved the purpose that sent them there in the first place.

One spokesperson was videoed thanking their sponsors and all of those who smoke carelessly in Russia.

And smoke has been seen (and filmed) swathing the Russian Ministry of Defense building in Moscow.

Hmmm...

There is some word that Russia has moved some of its forces from the front line in Ukraine to the Belgorod region.

That would be a nice gesture.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Prigozhin claims the Wagner withdrawal from Bakhmut has begun.

Yes, he said that they were being replaced by the Russian military. Ukraine has said that fighting has slowed in that region.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Meanwhile back at the ranch...

It looks like DeSantis' announcement that he is running for president had some technical glitches. Ah well, these things happen. Perhaps it is an omen?

Also, our dysfunctional Congress is set to go home for Memorial Day weekend. Isn't that special? What a way to honor our soldiers who have given their lives for our country by letting the country slide into a default. Sure, it's okay to hold the survivors hostage so that tax cuts for the wealthy are preserved.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "It looks like DeSantis'…had some technical glitches."

Yeah, I saw that happened.  But, I have yet to convince myself that DeSantis poses a real threat to Trump, even without the glitch.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "There is some word that Russia has moved some of its forces
      from the front line in Ukraine to the Belgorod region."

Also a rumor goin' 'roud that they've "secretly" moved "hundreds" of S-300 and S-400 missiles out of Belarus.
Where to I wonder?
                           ________________________________

FoxNews Headline:
      "Russia resorts to massive Soviet-era bombs as Ukrainian air
      defenses prove a match for missiles, drones"


Seems there's a price to be paid for checking out the FoxNews sites.  The algorithms that drive the advertising assault on my internet browsing have decided that I must be a dedicated Trumpkin and now regularly pummel me with outrageous headlines they want me to check out.
However, I decided this article was worth the citation and the resultant right-wing clutter on my browsing.

They're talking gravity bombs, of course, old fashioned open the bomb bay doors and drop the bombs type bombs, which will require the Russians fly over their targets, which they've so far been reluctant to do on account of the Ukrainians have proven themselves quite competent at shooting down Russian planes.  But, they're gonna havta get over that hesitancy if they're gonna start using gravity bombs.

AND that would indicate that we are none too early in getting those F-16s to Ukraine, which was the point I was going for in the first place.
(I'd go further and say we need to say it out loud right now that we're okay with Ukraine shooting down Russian airplanes that are still over Russia, both to prevent them from coming over Ukraine AND to prevent them from firing long range into Ukraine.  They've gotten away with that latter practice for far too long now.)

Of course, it's FoxNews we're talkin' 'bout here, so I won't vouch for the source or the story--but it might be true even so.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I have always felt that any Russian military target is fair game, even if it is in Russia. The Russian Air Force would qualify.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The NewYorkTimes backs up that prior FoxNews story I cited, about the Russians pulling out Soviet WWII era big gravity bombs.  They also say the Russians are retro-fitting them with wings and a guidance system to make them into glide bombs somewhat equivalent to our JDAMS systems (although with a more limited range--20 miles or so)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They also say the Russians are retro-fitting them with wings...

Well, that may be, but I have heard that they keep dropping them in the most unfortunate (for them) of places. They must not have that wing thing quite down yet.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "They also say the Russians are retro-fitting some of them with
      wings and a guidance system…"


It's said to still be a haphazard conversion; some get the upgrade; some don't.  (And, of course, the re-fit was rushed to get it into combat, so glitches are likely.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It seems that a deal "in principle" had been reached on the debt ceiling. Now they need to sell it.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...


            "It seems that a deal "in principle" had been reached…"

I saw that.  Looking at the publicly released information, I'd say Kevin McCarthy won that stare down.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Not according to the far right members of his party. And the far left doesn't like it either. From that I deduce that it was probably the best deal we could get considering the extortion by the GOP.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I do like the 2 year extension. I wouldn't want to go through this during an election year.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I deduce that it was probably the best deal we could get
      considering the extortion by the GOP."


Lotta folks been sayin' that.  In spite of which, it may be true.

      "I wouldn't want to go through this during an election year."

Probably Biden was thinkin' the same thing.  He's already workin' on how to beat Trump a second time.  That second year was likely what he got for some of what he gave.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Ex-U.S. Lieutenant Colonel says the Russians are now winning the war in Ukraine, and we should cut our loses.
I think it's safe to say this is a minority view, but it's worth considering, and it's not a hard read.  His reasoning is clear (flawed I think, but clear and easy to understand--reads quick).

Back in the battlefield itself:  The Russians seem to have slacked off ground operations in favor of massively increased bombing of Ukrainian civilians.  (Trying to get out ahead of the news about the impending Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' is my guess.  All that talk 'bout how the Ukrainians are comin' has undoubtedly pissed Putin off.  He wants to change the headlines.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I'm no military analyst but I think he missed the point of why Ukraine stayed so long in Bakhmut. I also think he may not have looked too closely at the effects on Russia of the sanctions that have been imposed. No, the Russian economy hasn't collapsed yet, but it isn't as healthy as Putin would have us believe. I also don't think he took into account why Russia could withstand such huge losses in previous wars, such as WWII, or why Ukraine can do so now.

Russia invaded Ukraine. The Ukrainians don't want them there and many of the Russians who are fighting there do not want to be there.

And Prigozhin is busy running for future political office. Something I don't think will work out quite as he thinks in the end.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I also don't think he took into account why Russia could
      withstand such huge losses in previous wars…"


Yeah, that's the third thing he missed (after he missed (a) the highly favorable kill ratio that was keeping the Ukrainian military in Bakhmut long after there was nothing there to defend and (b) it kept the Russians from sending Wagner soldiers to places where Ukrainians still lived and making a mess there).
We may have discovered why that Lieutenant Colonel never made General.
But Putin is well aware of the 'why' that you mentioned.  That's why the Russian government is publicly going ape-shit over a couple of low-power drones striking into Moscow.  That frenzy is all for Russian domestic consumption.  Putin's trying to convince his domestic audience that Russia is the victim here so they'll put up with the high casualties.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Putin's trying to convince his domestic audience that Russia is the victim here so they'll put up with the high casualties.

An idea that may possibly be hard to sew given the many ways Russian soldiers can communicate with those back home. Rising anger among the military cannot be papered over.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It looks like Prigozhin intends to take a month off from the war. Then he is predicting that his forces will be used to defend Russian territory. That might be an interesting move. They were some of the most capable forces in the fight, according to Ukraine.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Well, the debt ceiling bill has made it through the House. Now it is up to the Senate.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Rising anger among the military cannot be papered over."

But, Putin can hang a few, shoot even more, and most likely put down any mutiny, so long as his officer corps sticks with him.  The Russians are long and well versed in the use of 'blocking regiments' that keep rebellious soldiers fighting on the front lines for fear of being murdered, shot down by other Russian soldiers who don't want to find themselves on the front lines.  But Putin will need to keep the officer corps loyal if the enlisted soldiers mutiny.
                           ________________________________

      "[Prigozhin's] forces will be used to defend Russian territory."

When I first read about that I wondered if this was Prigozhin's way of telling the Russian Ministry of Defense (maybe even Putin himself)  that he's lost enough money in Ukraine; that he's had all of Ukraine that he wants; don't want no more of that.  I'm still wondering if that's what his announcement was intended to convey.
                           ________________________________

      "Now it is up to the Senate."

And now that's over too.  Biden cut a deal in the end.  He's Biden, that's what he does.  If ya don't like it ya can vote for Trump instead.  Think on that one awhile.
I'll be voting for Biden.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Campaign speech from Biden.  Well, why not?  Trump woulda.

                             ________________________________

Beginning to look to me like the Russians are trying to mount their own spring/summer offensive in Ukraine before the Ukrainians get their 'counteroffensive' out of the starting blocks.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Prigozhin is accusing the Russian defense ministry of mining Wagner's exit route from Bakhmut.

The Russians are long and well versed in the use of 'blocking regiments' that keep rebellious soldiers fighting on the front lines for fear of being murdered, shot down by other Russian soldiers who don't want to find themselves on the front lines.

And well versed on removing political opponents.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I'll be voting for Biden.

Ditto.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Prigozhin is accusing the Russian defense ministry…"

Possible Prigozhin has made himself unpopular with some elements of the Russian military-corruption complex.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Very possibly so. It sounds like those elements actually attacked a Wagner truck that was withdrawing Wagner soldiers. The soldiers were unharmed.

Meanwhile up in the Belgorod region of Russia the fight goes on. Apparently there have been more incursions in that region by free Russian forces. They have even gone so far as to call for a referendum on the independence of the Belgorod region from Russia. Sounds kind of familiar.

It also seems as if this diversionary tactic is working. Russia has moved more forces into that region.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "It sounds like those elements actually attacked a Wagner
        truck that was withdrawing Wagner soldiers."


Friendly fire incidents have afflicted the American military as well.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Ukraine's slow 'rolling start' to their spring/summer 'counteroffensive' appears to be picking up speed.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Yes, a lot of claims and counter claims going on as to what is happening.

I did see a rather neat video of Ukrainian soldiers encouraging silence regarding the counter offensive. I think they have doing a good job of keeping everyone in the dark so far.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Friendly fire incidents have afflicted the American military as well.

According to the Russian commander of the unit that fired on Wagner, it was definitely meant to be un-friendly.

Wagner is no longer sharing with the Russian Defense ministry it's movement plans.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Russians have blown the Nova Kakhovka dam on the Dnipro River in the Kherson Oblast.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

If they did it deliberately then they didn't warn their troops downstream because they have been abandoning their positions as quickly as the Ukrainians on the other side.

They also didn't consider the consequences to Crimean water supplies.

There has been some speculation that it may have been natural failure due to the mismanagement, or no management, of the dam by the Russians in control of it. They weren't releasing any water to lower the pressure.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "…it may have been natural failure due to the mismanage-
      ment, or no management…"


I've come to suspect that as well.  Or, maybe it was another drunken lieutenant colonel found a bright idea in his vodka bottle.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Yes, the destruction of the dam really doesn't benefit either Ukraine or Russia.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
According to the NBC Nightly News (among other sources), the Biden administration believes it most likely that the Nova Kakhovka dam was blown by the Russians.  They're not yet willing to make an official call on that question, but that's the way their preliminary intelligence is currently leaning.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

  
      "…the destruction of the dam really doesn't benefit either
      Ukraine or Russia."


Here's a thought that came to me late:

  (a)  Putin calculates his 'benefit' differently than we would.  Casualties don't seem to bother him much; he has more cannon fodder if he needs to call for it.
  (b)  The Russians routinely destroy cities and towns they have to pull out of, leaving destroyed territory in their wake.
  (c)  The Russians expected, or at least feared, they'd lose control over the Nova Kakhovka dam.  If they were going to blow it, they'd have to do it before they were driven off.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I have heard that there is actual security video showing the Russians blowing the dam and that in the beginning they actually admitted it, but then backpedaled and accused Ukraine.

There is speculation out there that the Russians have given up on Crimea, thinking the Ukrainians will take it back, so they don't care if it turns into a desert.

I have not seen the video so this could be disinformation on the part of Ukraine.

In this case, if the Russians did blow the dam, they did sacrifice their own troops. Ukrainian soldiers have said they observed Russian soldiers being swept away in the flooding.

Like the whole war, a total waste of human life and ecological and infrastructure destruction for no reason, except one man's ego.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

  
      "I have heard that there is actual security video showing
      the Russians blowing the dam…"


News to me.

      "…and that in the beginning they actually admitted it…"

At first they denied the dam had been blown (maybe nothing more than local authorities not being told in advance and denial being their default position until the word came down on what the new story was to be).  If they later admitted to blowing the dam themselves I missed that as well as the purported video.  Far as I know they went straight from claiming the dam was just fine to claiming there was an explosion and the Ukrainians did it.  I didn't hear of any intermediate stories.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Well, didn't hear of them until now anyway.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

News to me.

Yes, I would probably take that with a grain of salt too. Although, I would be curious to know why the Biden administration thought it might have been the Russians.

And if it was an accident it is still the fault of Russia. They were in control of the dam at the time.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I am hearing that explosions were heard at the dam. The Russians denied it, but then changed the story to the Ukrainians were shelling the dam all night.

The Ukrainians are saying that they couldn't even destroy the bridge with HIMARS, how could they destroy the dam? They said it would take a large explosion to damage the dam and that the Russians had destroyed the road on the Ukrainian side, so how could they haul in the amount of explosives needed? Their theory is that the Russians planted explosives in an effort to release just enough water to destroy Ukrainian positions on the islands below the dam. But they underestimated the force of the water and the damage was more extensive then they had planned.

I tend to believe the Ukrainians when they say they didn't do it. They have paused their counter offensive to the south because of the destruction. They wouldn't have wanted to have to do that, nor would they deliberately endanger civilians or their own troops downriver.

I do believe that the Russians would be that stupid to underestimate the damage that would be done if they blew part of the dam. They haven't acted like the brightest bulbs in the pack over this whole war.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Russians wired it to blow back in November when the Ukrainians were pushing out from Kherson, and the Russians first feared they might lose control over the dam and Ukraine be able to access it as a crossing.  (Or, at least, that was the story that was going around back in November.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...


And, of course, wiring the dam to blow is not the sort of action that demonstrates a proper regard for protecting the dam against failure.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Russia also passed a law on May 30 removing responsibility to investigate management of a facility that had been subject to a terrorist attack in any occupied territory. Or so I heard.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I just got a downward look at the remains of the Nova Kakhovka dam.  (Probably a satellite photo.)  There are two separate and distinct breaches.  Ordinarily, if a dam were to suffer a catastrophic failure, I'd expect a single breach expanding outward from the point of the first leak.  Wouldn't expect the dam to simultaneously sprout two leaks hundreds of yards apart.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Prigozhin is predicting huge losses for Russia and future firing squads for Russian Generals. That guy certainly has grabbed the spotlight, even after a dam collapse.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Wouldn't expect the dam to simultaneously sprout two leaks hundreds of yards apart.

Yup, rather fishy.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Trump has been indicted in the classified documents case.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...


      "Prigozhin is predicting huge losses for Russia…"

Territory or soldiers?  Or both?
                           ________________________________

      "Yup, rather fishy."

Two points of failure suggests the dam was blown rather than suffering a 'natural' failure.  But, both Ukraine and Russia agree on that point; both say the dam was blown.  The question then arises regarding who's to blame.  And having two points of failure, without more, doesn't shed very much light on that question.
                           ________________________________

      "Trump has been indicted in the classified documents case."

Not a surprise.
                           ________________________________

Actual news about Ukraine's now launched 'counteroffensive' is more than a bit vague--intentionally so it would appear.  But I do gather that the Ukrainians are retaking territory around Bakhmut and seem pleased if restrained about gains in other areas in the breakaway provinces of eastern Ukraine.
The Russians, for their part, seem to shelling furiously any gathering of civilians they think they can reach.  And their troops are said to be putting up a fairly stiff resistance in at least scattered locations.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
As a new day dawns over Ukraine (it's just after 5:00 am Ukrainian time), the results of yesterday's combat are not clear.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
And, as the old day closes in The States, the Republican rush to support Trump is overwhelming, and almost but not quite unanimous.  There are a few Republicans who seemingly would like to criticize Trump's personal raid on America's intelligence and defense secrets, but who are too afraid of the Republican 'base' voters to actually do so.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Territory or soldiers? Or both?

I think he was suggesting both.

Of course, this is Prigozhin. I am sure he has his own motives for saying what he does.

Two points of failure suggests the dam was blown rather than suffering a 'natural' failure.

I think both Norway and the US detected seismic activity consistent with a large explosion.

One person familiar with the construction of a dam has said it would take a large internal explosion to do the damage that was done. That would be rather difficult to accomplish by Ukraine given the dam was in control of Russia. Hard to sneak in that kind of amount of explosives. Russia had motive and opportunity.

Actual news about Ukraine's now launched 'counteroffensive' is more than a bit vague-...

To the frustration of at least one Ukrainian vlogger. He is worried Ukraine's supporters will believe the Russian narrative of how the counter-offensive is going if Ukraine doesn't put out any info.

But, I think Ukraine is working under NATO guidelines. So they would be concerned with OPSEC. Right now they seem to be poking the Russians in various places to see what they turn up.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Ukrainians do claim to have moved almost a mile back into the city of Bakhmut (NYT)  They're making that much public.  (Apparently they want to goad the Russians into coming back for another fight over the rubble that was once Bakhmut, diverting attention from more important targets to the south and southeast.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They have also let it be known that they have broken through the first line of defense of the Russians in at least one place.

Prigozhin has been screaming that the regular Russian military has abandoned an area north of Bakhmut. He seems rather irritated.

The attacks behind the Russian lines also continue...

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "They have also let it be known that they have broken
      through the first line of defense of the Russians in at least one
      place."


I knew British intelligence sources have said that much (NYT)--hadn't heard that word coming from Ukrainian government sources though.  (The Brits also reported that the Russians were 'withdrawing' through their own minefields in some places, resulting in even more Russian casualties.  WaPo)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The Ukrainians have broken through in the south. The Russians blew another dam to try to stop the Ukrainian advance. The lake this dam holds back wasn't as big as the reservoir at Nova Kakhovka though.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "The Ukrainians have broken through in the south."

You seem to have an edge on me on the news out of Ukraine; 'cause I got none of that info, not yet anyway.

And "broken through" means what, specifically?  (If the Russians are blowing more dams to try and stop the Ukrainian advances--that's a hint as to what 'broken through' means, but still leaves a lot of room to interpret the hint.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Found a story on the newly blown dam:

      "Valeriy Shershen, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Tavria military
      sector, said in a comment to Ukrainska Pravda news outlet on
      June 11 that the Russian military had blown up a dam on the
      Mokri Yaly River in the Donetsk Oblast, causing flooding on
      both banks."
      KyivIndependent

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
We've got a D.C. based think tank that has decided to play skunk at the garden party:

      "The territorial gain by Ukraine was confirmed by the Institute
      for the Study of War in an analysis noting that this was not yet
      a 'breakthrough.' In confirming the start of the counter-
      offensive, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said last
      week that his military commanders were in a 'positive mood.'
      Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly refused to share
      details to maintain the element of surprise."
      WaPo

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Ukraine has claimed recapture of the village of Storozhove, on the other side of the Mokri Yaly River.  Apparently the Russians' blowing the the dam didn't slow the Ukrainians down very much.  NYT

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

And "broken through" means what, specifically?

The Russians have constructed a multi-layer of defense lines. I had heard that the Ukrainians had broken through the first layer in at least one area.

The area where the Russians blew the dam didn't hold a large amount of water, so it didn't slow down the Ukrainians.

CNN is reporting that Ukraine has lost 16 pieces of equipment that we sent, mostly Bradley's I believe. But it doesn't look like there were large casualties of troops. The most important thing. And if Ukraine takes that area perhaps some of those Bradley's can be repaired.

There is also word that the Russians have abandoned the Kinburn Spit when the flooding from the Nova Kakhovka dam cut off their supplies.

There is also speculation that once the water drains from the reservoir behind that dam it will create a land corridor for Ukraine that has not been fortified with defensive lines by the Russians.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Ukrainian and Russian YouTuber's are my sources. Some may be reliable, some may not.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Russians abandoned the lower reaches of the Kinburn Spit months ago because the Ukrainians kept shelling them out there.  There was no place to hide and they couldn't dig in on account of the water table was just a few inches down.  (The Ukrainians would drive them back and then maybe, or maybe not, land reconnaissance squads to do a little reconnoitering and then escape back across the mouth of the river to the west side.  The Russians got tired of that and permanently abandoned the lower part of the spit.)  An even larger part of the spit is supposedly now turned into an island, at least temporarily (washout from the flooding).

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
And I suspect the Institute for the Study of War defines a "breakthrough" as getting through the last line of defense, rather than the first one.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Ahh well, time will tell which kind of "breakthrough" it really was.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Off topic:

It'll be interesting to see if Trump's call for protests tomorrow at the venue of his indictment in Miami actually materialize.  I'm betting that turn-out in support of Trump is less than impressive--perhaps 'pitiful' will be the best description.  (Doesn't mean they won't vote for him in the primary; they almost certainly will.  He's still the leading Republican candidate, and almost certainly will be the Republican/Trumpkan Party candidate come the general election, but they're expecting him to do the dirty work this time.  And that ain't gonna happen.)  The neo-Nazi elements who thought they'd ride a Trump rebellion into power back in 2020 have figured out that rebellion's not gonna materialize unless Trump comes out to lead it.  Which means they won't show up for a riot in Miami tomorrow.  They're gonna need to see Trump first move to seize power in some grand gesture all his own, and that ain't gonna happen either.  Trump's a coward; he ain't gonna get out front.  He was never gonna get out front.  And they're not gonna get out ahead of him again, not now that they know he'll leave 'em hanging out there like he did last time.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Breaking through the the first defensive line can sometimes lead to a breakthrough of the defense in general.  In fact, that's usually the goal.  Seldom I think does anyone plan to break the first line and then stop without engaging the rest.
I'm pretty sure the Ukrainians don't have any such illogical ideas about how to conduct a counteroffensive on their own home turf.
                           ________________________________

The next round of American matériel contributions will include more Bradleys and more Strykers to replace the recently lost armor.  NYT  The Biden administration is in for the whole game.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Putin has actually come out and admitted that the Russian military is short of some equipment, such as precision guided weaponry. He has also nixed the idea of martial law and another call up of draftees.

Prigozhin is saying the Ukrainians have more in reserve for the counter offensive. Yes, possibly so. They've been planning this for some time. Have to wonder if Putin has noticed?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Breaking through the the first defensive line can sometimes lead to a breakthrough of the defense in general. In fact, that's usually the goal.

Yup. Just have to find that weak link...

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Trump's a coward; he ain't gonna get out front. He was never gonna get out front.

And that's a fact. He's always looking for someone to do the dirty work for him.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The next round of American matériel contributions will include more Bradleys and more Strykers to replace the recently lost armor.

I seem to remember reading somewhere that we have a lot of Bradley's laying around doing nothing.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "… the Russian military is short of some equipment, such as
      precision guided weaponry."


But they have a massive stash of Soviet era unguided munitions left over from the pre-GPS days when they thought they'd eventually be fighting a WWII style land war against NATO.

Some of that ammo will get their new guidance systems attached.  But the majority of it is artillery shells.  Those will get fired in massed barrages into Ukrainian cities (unless Biden finally relents and allows the Ukrainians to have M140s (a/k/a "ATACMS") in sufficient quantity.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Perhaps with the advent of Storm Shadow ATACMS will come.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
It's looking like Ukraine's long anticipated counteroffensive has hit some serious resistance.  The Russians ain't breaking and running this time.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Nope, at least not in some areas.

However, they are still doing stupid really well too. They lost around 200 soldiers killed and wounded when they were ordered to assemble for a speech by one of the same leaders responsible for the Vulheder tank battle debacle. They were left standing for hours waiting for the guy. Just enough time for the Ukrainians to spot them and send in a HIMARS strike.

But the Russians have also learned from the Ukrainians on how to fight against tanks effectively, even Western ones. They also have a helicopter that is capable of hanging back far behind the front line while firing missiles. Rather like the planes they were using earlier.

This isn't a cake walk for either side.