Sunday 23 April 2023

A Reckoning Will Come

 I thought it important to shine a light on the words of Vladimir Kara-Murza, who was just sentenced to 25 years in prison for treason by a Russian “court”. His crime? He had the audacity to speak out against Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine.


My Last Statement to the Russian Court


Why should we care? Because this should be a lesson to all who love democracy about what can happen if it disappears. As we watch in our country the attempts by Republican legislators to silence any dissent to their policies we must begin to realize that, yes, it can happen here too. If we do not stand up for the rights of women, of voters, of people who are not exactly like us, of even our elected officials, we run the risk of sinking to the level of a place like Putin’s Russia. Think carefully about book banning, depriving elected officials of office on trumped up issues, forcing women to bear children against their will, or taking on Mickey Mouse because he had the nerve to oppose a Governor and speak out.

Yes, that’s right, I stand with the Mouse and all those who oppose oppression. Ronnie, Vladimir Putin, and others like them, can take a long walk on a short pier.



84 comments:

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
A reckoning may be coming sooner than we've been expecting.

Headline:

      "Vladimir Putin 'fires top admiral after he refused to send his
      sailors from his Pacific fleet to fight in Ukraine war'"


Same story, second source:  Putin charged the admiral with 'insubordination'.  (I suppose there may be an arrest and a trial; have to wait and see.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The publication known as Newsweek is now but a shadow of its former self (most publications are these days), but it may still be reliable.

Headline:
      Russian Soldiers and Wagner Mercenaries Start Fighting Each
      Other: Report

      "A shoot-out allegedly occurred between Russian soldiers and
      Wagner Group mercenaries over which side is to blame for
      Russia's failures amid the invasion of Ukraine, military
      authorities from Kyiv said on Sunday."

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I can see both of those scenarios happening. The Russian military and Wagner are under a lot of stress. There was a reason the collapse of the Russian military actually was a voiced possibility.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

On another note, it looks like Tucker Carlson is out at Fox. Perhaps they started to realize that he could become an expensive liability instead of an asset. He was their number one conspiracy theorist.

But, it also looks like Don Lemon is out at CNN as well. I always liked him. He and Chris Cuomo were both adamant anti-Trumpers from the very beginning. But I think he made some comments recently that were rather derogatory towards women. That might have been part of it.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Tucker Carlson is out at Fox."

I wonder if that'll start a viewer backlash against Fox  (Trump's already got them on his shit list--for the time being anyway.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I suppose it depends on if their viewers are as obsessed with him as they are with Trump.

Don Lemon is out at CNN, and I liked him, but it doesn't mean I will quit watching the channel. There are others that can take his place.

Same will be true for Fox. It would take a bigger shake up to actually change Fox ideology anyway. Sad to say.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Sounds like the Ukrainians have been nibbling away at territory across the Dnipro river near Kherson while the Russians have been occupied with Bakhmut. We'll have to wait and see if it becomes all out gobbling.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Ukrainians have been nibbling away at territory across the
      Dnipro river near Kherson while the Russians have been
      occupied with Bakhmut."


Yeah, I'd noticed that.  They've quietly established what amounts to a permanent beachhead on the "Russian" side of the river.  It's as if our D-Day landings in France had gone by unremarked in the press and without noticeable reaction from the Germans.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Sometimes an obsession can prove to be an achilles heal.

Although I think the Russians did respond in one area with aviation. But that probably was too little too late.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It looks like Disney is suing DeSantis.

Walt Disney Parks and Resorts on Wednesday sued Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and his hand-picked oversight board, accusing the Republican 2024 presidential prospect of weaponizing his political power to punish the company for exercising its free speech rights.

The lawsuit was filed in federal court minutes after the board appointed by DeSantis to oversee Disney’s special taxing district sought to claw back its power from the entertainment giant, voting to invalidate an agreement struck between Disney and the previous board in February, just before that board’s dissolution.


Wonder if that will go as far as the Supreme Court?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

And it looks like the House GOP is set to pass some kind of bill to force those on Medicaid to work for their benefits, as the cost of raising the debt ceiling.



     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "…GOP is set to pass some kind of bill to force those on
      Medicaid to work for their benefits, as the cost of raising the
      debt ceiling."


I  don't think he'll get enough votes for that to pass.  It ain't near draconian enough to suit his right-wing activists types.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Looks like he managed the votes.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Ukraine has been downplaying the counteroffensive saying the coverage has become rather overheated. Fact or fiction?

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Looks like he managed the votes."

The bill they passed was way more draconian than the bill you described yesterday.  It had $4.5 trillion in cuts, way more than just a 'work' requirement for Medicaid.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Ukrainian Defense Minister has cautioned against "overheated" public expectations for the expected counteroffensive.  I don't know if qualifies as "Ukraine…downplaying" said offensive in your thinking.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The bill they passed was way more draconian than the bill you described yesterday.

Yes. I only gave the headline that was on the newsfeed. Which makes it even worse. I wonder if McCarthy will ever realize that aligning himself with the extremists in the House may very well end badly for him? Will the recent rejection of the anti-abortion legislation by Republican controlled state governments in 2 states give him a hint?

Will anyone notice when Minnesota starts to be inundated with migrants from other states seeking a freer governmental structure than the states they are fleeing? Because eventually the sh*ts going to hit the fan when people realize they are living in authoritarian states. It may not be climate change that destroys Florida, it will have been done by DeSantis before then.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I don't know if qualifies as "Ukraine…downplaying" said offensive in your thinking.

I don't know either. But I have to wonder if the Russians aren't the only ones who are adept at disinformation? We have all, including the Russians, been given all sorts of ideas regarding the Ukrainian offensive. Miles of trenches have been dug, cement blockades have been erected in the oddest places. Russians have been kept very busy while the Ukrainians have been preparing. Will it be here, will it be there? Maybe the offensive really started long ago.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
In what was billed yesterday as the 'largest missile attack against Ukrainian civilians in almost two months' the Russians managed to launch 23 cruise missiles and a couple of Iranian drones.

Not an impressive showing, notwithstanding that they killed at least 23 civilians.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Prigozhin has come out and said that Wagner PMC is on the verge of extinction. Don't know if he is just playing for more ammo or not. Word is they have suffered some serious losses.

The Ukrainians may have prepared a surprise for the Russians in Bakhmut. All sorts of speculation as to what the "surprise" is.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I had noticed over the course of the last few weeks that the Russians had consistently picked up ground in Bakhmut by leveling the ground first--blowing all the defensive positions to Hell so the Ukrainian defenders had no defensive positions to man.
Then the Russians would move into and occupy what was essentially open ground--no cover.
And I recall that Bakhmut is supposedly (potentially) under the guns of Ukrainians on high ground just to the west of town.

So, the Russians are occupying a field of rubble with no cover where Bakhmut used to be, not even piles of rubble they can hide in--but a rubble-strewn field with no hiding places (they blew them all up to drive the Ukrainian defenders back).
And the Ukrainians are holding advantageous firing ground just to the west.

Ain't hard to speculate as to where the surprise might be coming from.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Putin has fired the "Butcher of Mariupol", Russian Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, on the eve of Ukraine's launch of a long threatened 'spring counteroffensive'  Newsweek

(A Colonel-General is the highest ranking general in the Russian military--the equivalent of a three star general in our rankings--they don't have four star generals anymore.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Prigozhin is threatening the withdrawal of Wagner forces from Bakhmut if they do not get more ammunition. He would be quite happy to go back to Africa.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The Ukrainians have been busy attacking various Russian targets. There was a drone attack on an oil reservoir in Sevastopol which caused a massive fire and destroyed some of the tanks. There have also been some odd fires here or there in munitions factories.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Prigozhin is threatening the withdrawal of Wagner forces
      from Bakhmut…"


Prigozhin's been in Bakhmut.  Could be he's looked up at that high ground still held by the Ukrainians and likewise calculated that the counterattack might very well fall there first (if only to pin down the Russian forces that have been sustaining the now eight-month Russian assault, keep them from going south to reinforce Crimea).

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Could be he's running scared, yes. Could be he should be. But that doesn't bode well for places like Sudan. Wagner can still cause a lot of damage in Africa. Would be better to liquidate them.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

A train derailed in Bryansk, inside Russia. The Governor of the region is claiming it was caused by an IED. I don't know, I would lean toward poor maintenance, myself. We seem to be seeing a lot of derailments here in the US. Probably something to do with less stringent safety regulations enacted under Trump. I could also say the same for some of the midsize banks too. I could see where Russian officials would like to blame Ukraine, kind of like Republicans would like to blame Biden.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Sounds like Ukraine has bagged a thermobaric launch system near Bakhmut. Along with a rather large amount of Russians.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Sounds like Ukraine has bagged a thermobaric launch
      system near Bakhmut."


They'll be needing appropriate ammo for that.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "A train derailed in Bryansk, inside Russia."

Seems to have caught fire too.  More folks smoking where they shouldn't?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They'll be needing appropriate ammo for that.

Just eliminating one of those things is a plus.

More folks smoking where they shouldn't?

Russia does seem to have a huge smoking problem.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Word is that Russian soldiers down south were digging a trench line in an area where cattle infected with anthrax were buried. The soldiers have contracted the disease. Some were sent back to Russia before a quarantine was created.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Anthrax can be nasty, but it's not hyper-contageous.  They'll be able to get it under control if there's an outbreak back home.
And they'll probably be able to get the story squelched as well.

However, the story does remind me of the idiots who had Russian soldiers digging themselves into trenches around Chernobyl.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Yes, Chernobyl did come to mind.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Russia is accusing Ukraine of trying to assassinate Putin overnight with a drone attack. Ukraine is denying any involvement in an attack.

If there actually was an attack I think I would look closer to home for the "attackers". Putin is very careful with his security. It is doubtful, if Ukraine could target the Kremlin, that they would know exactly where Putin was at any given time.

It is more likely an effort on the part of the Kremlin to gin up sympathy for their cause before their May celebrations.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

  
I can't see Ukraine attempting an 'assassination' of Putin so casually.  If the attackers were actually targeting Putin (which I rather doubt), this was really sloppy work.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "It is more likely an effort on the part of the Kremlin to gin up
      sympathy for their cause before their May celebrations."


Might be an attempt to rain on their enthusiasm for their May 9ᵗʰ parade in Moscow, which is still scheduled to occur.  Could even be Putin's government floating an excuse to call it off entirely, or an excuse for Putin not attending this time.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "The drone attack was probably staged by Russia with an eye
      on the domestic audience, an analysis of the incident by the
      Washington-based Institute for the Study of War said. The
      think tank said it was “extremely unlikely” that two drones
      could have avoided detection and reached the Kremlin."
      WaPo

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The
think tank said it was “extremely unlikely” that two drones
could have avoided detection and reached the Kremlin."


That, and if you look at what the drones did, there really wasn't much damage done. It really did look staged. I think the Russian who claimed it was Russian partisans was just taking advantage of the circumstances to claim credit.

And, if Ukraine was going to target anything in Russia it would use the ammo to go after a military target. Something that might actually be doable as well as have an impact on the war. Putin would be a huge long shot.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Russians are now claiming that the United States directed Ukraine to perpetrate the attack.  They now say we were 'behind' it.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They will always blame the US for all of their misfortune.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I have read that the Russians have been mapping our undersea internet cables.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
They've had those cables located and mapped for years now; decades maybe.  They may be flagrantly updating their maps recently, so we can't avoid noticing, hoping we'll take it as a threat.

And it is a threat, but it's not a new threat.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Prigozhin has announced a withdrawal date for Wagner Group (PMC) from Bakhmut, as of the 10th of May.  Supposedly over ammunition shortages.

May or may not happen, but if he's bluffing the Kremlin then it's a dangerous bluff, dangerous for him.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I am not sure if Prigozhin can be believed or not, either. However, there has been a purge, it would seem, of supporters of Wagner within the Russian military. One of them seems to be now working for Wagner. It would appear that Putin, in the guise of Shoigu, is sending a message to Prigozhin.

As to Prigozhin's latest sob video with the dead Wagner fighters, it was his choice to use those tactics. So I really don't believe his angst about losing the fighters.

But he is a loose cannon that could be a threat to Putin.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Lavrov has been making more strident claims about US involvement in the Kremlin drone attack. Another Russian doubling down on stupid, ala Trump and DeSantis here in the States.

I realize they have to keep up the propaganda for internal Russian corruption, but they walk a fine line there.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Last Tuesday, Putin signed a decree that allows the [Russian]
      government to take control of assets owned by foreign firms
      and individuals from ‛unfriendly nations’ — a long list of
      apparently hostile governments that includes the U.S., the
      U.K., the entirety of the EU and all G7 member countries.
      "Ventures owned by Germany‛s Uniper and Finland‛s Fortum
      energy companies were the first to be targeted. While Kremlin
      spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claimed that Moscow was only
      assuming ‛temporary’ control of their day-to-day
      management, he argued that it would help create a pool of
      assets that Moscow could expropriate in retaliation for
      Russian property sequestered by European governments."
      Politico.EU


Looks like folks was slow to abandon doing business in Russia are likely gonna pay a price for their dawdling.
                           ________________________________

RussianFreePress (whoever they are), reports that Chechen tyrant Ramzan Kadyrov is now attempting to recruit Wagner's professional soldiers out from under Yevgeny Prigozhin.   (Prighozhin's not gonna like that.)  Their English is not particularly clear when they try to imply stuff, so I'm not entirely sure who Kadyrov claims to find "offensive" in the current situation, but I think he's now claiming to be offended by Prigozhin's decision to abandon the assault on Bakhmut.

(You should probably read it for yourselves and make your own interpretation.  It's short and to the point, whatever that point actually is when properly interpreted.  The one thing I am confident I understood is that there's some serious factional bitterness startin' to go public over Wagner's decision to pull back from Bakhmut.  And that's likely gonna get quickly worse.  Putin got potential PR conflagration to deal with here.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Looks like Prigozhin's havin' second thoughts 'bout that 'withdrawal from Bakhmut' idea.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Looks like Prigozhin's havin' second thoughts 'bout that 'withdrawal from Bakhmut' idea.

Yes, he is saying that Moscow has promised all of the ammo he needs. Maybe that is it or maybe the rumor that Kadyrov was going to send his Chechens to take their place was true and not something Prigozhin was too thrilled about.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it appears that the Republicans' extortion ploy, using the most vulnerable Americans and the American economy as pawns, is continuing. The debt ceiling tipping point is fast approaching.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Maybe…or maybe…."

Could be.
If Prigozhin does back down from his threat to abandon Bakhmut then they'll be able to sweep this dispute under the rug for now.  But Prigozhin didn't go public with that rant without knowing that Putin would allow it.  Prigozhin backin' down now don't mean the conflict goes away.  At most it means Putin had enough of playing the conflict out in public.
(Could be all was just show to divert attention and blame away from Putin and on to the underling's competitions.)

      "The debt ceiling tipping point is fast approaching."

Yeah, and something like 90% of the current Republican congressmen weren't in Congress last time they tried to force that stunt, and they don't seem to remember what they did to the U.S. economy and credit rating last time.  The Republicans who might remember have been replaced with hard-core MAGA types.  The danger is very real this time.  The lessons Republicans learned last time have not been institutionally retained.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I can only hope for a miracle. We have gotten stuck with Republicans who put party before country. And voters who don't care to look beyond their propaganda.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Brits may have had enough of the Biden administration's dawdling on the question and may be getting ready to send longer range 'smart' missiles to Ukraine with or without American approval.  WaPo

(And Prigozhin has gone back to public complaining about ammo, claiming that he was 'lied to' when the Russian Defense Ministry promised to provide his fighters with sufficient ammunition.  Of course, the Ukrainians say they've not noticed any shortage of ammo on the part of Wagner Group, but whether or no, Prigozhin is back to carping in public again.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Ukraine has made some offensive moves around Bakhmut.  Looks like the spring 'counteroffensive' is off to a rolling start.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I had heard that the counter offensive was scheduled to start at midnight on the 9th of May. Of course by the time I heard that it was a couple hours past midnight in Ukraine.

It sounds like the Ukrainians were throwing a lot of HIMARS at Wagner. That and the mining of former Ukrainian positions just waiting for Wagner to move in so they could blow them up

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It amazes me that Prigozhin would be surprised at being lied to.

Although Ukraine hasn't noticed an ammo shortage on the part of Wagner.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "It amazes me that Prigozhin would be surprised at being lied
      to."


My guess is that he just made that story up.  Putin may have allowed him to rag about the Russian Ministry of Defense and Gen. Shoigu but he probably wasn't gonna allow a withdrawal of Wagner forces from Bakhmut.  (Although, he apparently did allow the 72nd Brigade to pull back--or maybe they just didn't ask for permission.)  So, Prigozhin had to give an excuse for not pulling out.  Easiest thing to do is just lie about it himself.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "… the British Defense Ministry said. As many as 10,000
      prisoners may have enlisted last month alone, according to
      the ministry’s daily update Thursday. But it said the
      mercenary Wagner Group, which U.S. officials estimated had
      recruited tens of thousands of people from Russian prisons
      last year, probably lost access to those facilities following the
      group’s public feud with the country’s military."
      WaPo

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

From the video I saw the 72nd didn't wait for an ok to withdraw. They took off running when the Ukrainian tank showed up.

Wagner had to try to shore up that southern flank after the 72 retreated suddenly. Prigozhin was seriously passed off. They lost a lot of men.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Now I am hearing that Ukrainian commanders are saying it was Wagner forces who ran, not the 72nd. They are saying Prigozhin is a liar.

The fog of war.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Ukrainian commanders are saying it was Wagner forces who ran…"

I'm thinkin' the Ukrainians are trying to stir up shit amongst the Russians.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Lol! Could be.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Sounds like the hypersonic rocket that our Patriot system shot down in Ukraine was targeting it. Well, now we know that those types of rockets can actually be shot down. Kudos to the Ukrainian soldiers who were operating the system.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I'm not sure it's a clear demonstration of success for the Patriot missile when it hits a Kinzhal missile that just happened to be already comin' straight for it.
(Who hit whom here?)
I'll be more impressed when and if they hit a Kinzhal that's goin' somewhere else.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It sounds like the Russian airforce had a bad day, losing 2 airplanes and 2 helicopters. At least one of the Mi8's was carrying electronic jamming equipment.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Russians seemed to have had a bad day in general.  Word's leaking out about Ukrainians quietly advancing and (if they move slow enough to allow the Russians to complete their retreats) walking unimpeded onto ground recently inhabited by Russian soldiers.
Zelenskyy's received new pledges of military support from both Berlin and Paris, and is today headed for London.
And the Ukrainians appear to have begun using their own longer range, Ukrainian made, "Grom" guided missiles, apparently anticipating they'll be able to replace them with newer western missiles.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I am hearing that the Russians have lost a couple more higher up commanders in some of the Ukrainian strikes they are doing as a preliminary for the counter offensive.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

According to a report in the Washington Post, picked up by CNN, Prigozhin offered to give the Ukrainians information on Russian troop locations if Ukraine would cede territory around Bakhmut. This was part of that document leak on Discord. The offer supposedly happened back in January.

Prigozhin denies it. The leak said he met with Ukrainian intelligence in Africa. He said he hasn't been to Africa since before the war. He thinks it was a plant by his adversaries in Moscow.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      PBS:
      "On Monday, the
[Belarus] state news agency Belta reported
      Lukashenko inspected an air force installation. A photo posted
      to the presidential website showed him standing stiffly in a
      military jacket, taking a salute from an officer, while another
      showed him sitting at a command post desk. A video of
      Lukashenko speaking to the military later appeared in a
      Telegram channel with ties to the presidential press service.
      "The intent of the media was clear -– to dispel rumors and
      reports that Lukashenko was seriously ill — but they also
      raised some new questions.
      "A bandage appeared on his left hand, similar to one that was
      seen on his right hand at the Kremlin last week. In the video,
      Lukashenko speaks to the officers in an unusually hoarse and
      weak voice, sometimes pausing between words."

                           ________________________________
 
      "…the Russians have lost a couple more higher up
      commanders"


Both of 'em colonels.

      "According to a report in the Washington Post, picked up by
      CNN, Prigozhin offered to give the Ukrainians information…"


More shit stirrin' I'd reckon it.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I'm more impressed now.

      "Ukraine’s armed forces shot down 18 missiles across the
      country in the early hours
[Tuesday], according to Ukraine’s
      top military commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny. Six of them
      were ‛Kinzhal’ hypersonic missiles, he said."
      WaPo
 

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I wonder how many Kinzhal's Russia has.

If the Patriot can shoot them down then they may end up being a rather expensive boondoggle for the Russians.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

More so if it were any of the air defense systems Ukraine now has.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Biden administration has supposedly informed our allies that the United States will not block them from transferring their own F-16s to Ukraine.  Biden still doesn't want to give American owned F-16s to Ukraine, but looks like the word's going out that our allies are gonna be free to do as they please with theirs (so far as providing them to Ukraine that is).

Of course, it'll be awhile before Ukrainian pilots can get trained up on flying F-16s; ain't gonna help 'em in the much anticipated Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' due out this spring/summer.  But it is a crucial signal to Putin that Biden intends to keep backing Ukraine for his remaining almost six years as President (assuming Biden defeats Trump for a second time come the 2024 election ).

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Word is that after evaluating Ukrainian pilots on an F16 simulator US Airforce instructors are looking at a training period of 4 -5 months. The longer time frame being for those who are not proficient in English.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
However long it takes their pilots to qualify on F-16s, the planes themselves will need supplies and especially they'll need replacement parts.  It's the provision of those repair and maintenance parts that implies an American commitment to a long term connection between the United States and Ukraine.
This is a warning that the U.S. will be on Russia's doorstep, individually, with supplies and parts for the Ukrainian Air Force if, when the time comes, there's any recalcitrant Turks or Hungarians thinkin' of blocking Ukraine's NATO membership on Putin's behalf.

And the Biden administration has indicated that it will "part of" an alliance plan to provide F-16s to Ukraine.  This could include sending American-held F-16s to Ukraine if there's not enough buy-in from our European allies to meet the perceived need.

      "Colin Kahl, the Pentagon's top policy official, previously told
      Congress that training Ukrainian pilots on F-16s could take
      ‛about 18 months.’ Other U.S. defense officials have said the
      training could be shortened to only six to nine months based
      on pilots' previous training and knowledge of fighter aircraft."
       NBCNews

                      ________________________________

Zelenskyy can go to the G7 meeting and Putin cannot.
                           ________________________________

And…  Zelenskyy was invited to address the Arab Summit in person, another place Putin can't go this year.  (The Arab Summit invitation is a sign that the Arabs are now convinced that Putin's gonna lose this war.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

(The Arab Summit invitation is a sign that the Arabs are now convinced that Putin's gonna lose this war.)

Perhaps they could give that message to Erdogan. He is still talking about his "special relationship" with Putin.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "[Erdoğan] is still talking about his 'special relationship'
      with Putin."


Erdoğan has backed himself into a corner there.  He's kinda 'caught' in that 'special relationship' now.  He might as well talk it up.  He's gotta mine that for whatever he can get out of it for as long as it's still profitable.  (And right now he's important to Putin as an access and outlet for Putin's contraband, so it's an important source of graft for Erdoğan.)  Orbán in Hungary has a somewhat similar problem.  (Orbán's problem will intensify if, however unlikely, Erdoğan manages to lose his upcoming runoff election, or if Lukashenko of Belarus dies in the near future.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Wagner Group claims to have finally taken Bakhmut.  (Ukrainian officials dispute the claim.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Russian Ministry of Defense is backing Wagner's claim to have taken Bakhmut.  (The Ukrainians, at last report, were sticking with the claim that they still hold some real estate in town, if only on the western edges.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It does look like Wagner has taken the city center. They have expended a lot of men to do it. But I suspect that the Ukrainians had the timing of their withdrawal well planned.

They have managed to seriously weaken Wagner and have caused the Russian military to start to relocate troops to meet the suspected Ukrainian counter offensive in the south. Troop concentrations that they have started to target with HIMARS.

With Wagner inside Bakhmut the Ukrainians have been busy rolling back the flanks, allowing them a safer withdrawal, and also a possibility of turning the tables on Wagner with a possible encirclement.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "It does look like Wagner has taken the city center."

Wagner's held the city center for a week/ten days, maybe longer.  I'd have to go back and look it up.

      "…and also a possibility of turning the tables on Wagner with
      a possible encirclement."


I've been watching for that to maybe happen.  I won't be surprised if it does, other than that'd mean the Ukrainians would have more prisoners than they want to take care of.  So, I also won't be surprised if they circle 'em and start shelling into the circle, and don't ask anybody to surrender.

Also, this is not the first time Wagner has claimed to have taken possession of Bakhmut.  It's quite possible they're making the claim again mostly to turn attention away from Zelenskyy's very successful foreign excursion--Europe through the Middle East and on to Japan and the G7--Zelenskyy's been getting praises all the way.  Russia would like that to not be the story of the day, day after day after day.  A renewed claim to have taken Bakhmut is a fairly good diversion from that story.  It's simple enough to attract the attention of the war correspondents eager for headlines and clickbaits, plus they can easily justify not goin' to Bakhmut to check it out for themselves.  And Putin himself has weighed in on the dispute claim, publicly congratulating Wagner Group.  He doesn't usually get so personally bound to news coming out of Ukraine.  (Of course, it's seldom good news for the Russians coming out of Ukraine.)

And, we should keep in mind that Wagner had earlier threatened to pull out of Bakhmut by the 25ᵗʰ of this month, and they're still claiming that they're gonna 'hand it over' to Russian regular army paratroopers on the 25ᵗʰ.  Doesn't sound to me like Wagner wants to bask in the glory of the seizure of Bakhmut.  Sounds instead like Prigozhin's prepping to blame the "loss" of Bakhmut on the Russian Ministry of Defense.  (May well be that they never actually held Bakhmut in full, but that'll not be Prigozhin's story.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

One of the Ukrainian HIMARS strikes in Mariupol took out a Russian command post located in the basement of the building struck.

And, we should keep in mind that Wagner had earlier threatened to pull out of Bakhmut by the 25ᵗʰ of this month, and they're still claiming that they're gonna 'hand it over' to Russian regular army paratroopers on the 25ᵗʰ.

Prigozhin would much prefer that the Russian regular army be the ones encircled.