Sunday, 8 March 2020

Virus


A couple posts ago I wrote about three events that I believed in some way shape or form were going to be important, not just in the present, but in the future. I also felt that they were going to be connected in a way that will impact all of us.

As you are all aware the coronavirus, or Covid-19, has now spread over much of the planet, touching many countries and the people who live there. For most who are infected it will be a mild version, but for some it will mean hospitalization and, sadly, death. Whether you want to call it a pandemic or not it is a very serious happening that will take a serious effort to control.

We have seen how the Chinese government responded to the outbreak of Covid-19 in their country, the mass quarantine of millions of people. An extreme measure that we might have thought would be out of the question for those in the West to emulate. However, just overnight Italy has imposed a partial quarantine of their own.



Obviously, we don't want to overreact, but as is demonstrated by the Italian government official, as well as the Pope himself, it is up to those of us who have limited health risks to try to protect others who will be more seriously affected by Covid-19.  Because we could be carriers.

Contrast these responses to the response of Donald Trump, the current President of the United States.

Trump's response

Just in case that link disappears, it was pertaining to Trump's response to a reporter's question about a person who attended a CPAC rally for Trump who tested positive for coronavirus.  While I may disagree with the people who attend those rallies, unlike Donald Trump I certainly would not encourage them to expose themselves to an illness like Covid-19.

An overview of what is happening and what we can do ourselves to fight the coronavirus.




And, lastly, a prediction of what could be. I stress could, because perhaps if we all work together we can mitigate some of the seriousness of this outbreak.




Take care all and be sure to wash your hands!

138 comments:

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Bernie Sanders has likewise indicated that he will continue to hold his fairly well attended public rallies.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I couldn't help noticing this morning that neither the progress of the COVID-19 virus nor the American stock market seem to be responding positively to Trump's most recent tweets.  It appears that neither will soon prove to be dedicated Trumpkins.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Bernie Sanders has likewise indicated that he will continue to hold his fairly well attended public rallies.

I'm not surprised. I think there are many politicians out there who are very self centered. Perhaps it's a requirement of the job.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I couldn't help noticing this morning that neither the progress of the COVID-19 virus nor the American stock market seem to be responding positively to Trump's most recent tweets. It appears that neither will soon prove to be dedicated Trumpkins.

Oh, don't sell Trump's propaganda abilities short. He's already laying the blame at the feet of the media.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Ireland has canceled all St. Patrick's Day parades.  (Although, I'm not sure parades ever were a big part of the deal in Ireland.)

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
In what Politico is describing as a "major win for House Democrats", the D.C. Circuit Court has ruled (2-1) that the House Democrats are entitled to all the stuff from the Mueller probe--all of it, in spite of the Trump administration's efforts to keep the most damning stuff secret.

This will, no doubt, be appealed to the Supreme Trumpkins.  But the important question remaining is whether or not the Supreme Trumpkins will step in and enter an interim order of secrecy to protect Trump during the pending reĆ«lection season.  (The sole Trumpkin judge on the panel voted for Trump.)

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Sanders has reversed his earlier decision; he canceled a rally in Cleveland Ohio set for this evening, on account of the covid-19 virus on the of advice of local health officials.  (Biden also canceled a rally scheduled for Cleveland tonight.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

So far it looks like Joe Biden is having a good night. Michigan has not been called yet, but it is looking promising for Biden too.

It may be that we are seeing the traditional moderate America standing up to be counted. I suspect people are getting tired of the volatile shock and awe style of Trump and would like a more normal, one might say boring, type of governance.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

A third case of Covid-19 has been confirmed in Minnesota.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I presume they have confirmed cases in Ireland, but I haven't heard the numbers. Italy has kind of taken over the headlines, with the entire country in quarantine now.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Washington State is considered a significant test for Sanders.  He was expected to run away with Washington just a week ago--then came Super Tuesday.  Now they're beginning to wonder if maybe Biden can make it close, maybe even win Washington.  Either one, close or Biden wins will be considered a terrible loss for Sanders.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I see that Biden took four more states last night.  North Dakota and Washington state are still out, although Sander's lead in North Dakota seems solid, currently leading by 6% with 78% of the vote reported.  (Washington state's tight enough, could go either way.)

Speculation by some of the pundits has Sanders quitting the race this time instead of taking it to the convention.  Sanders was widely blamed for weakening Hillary Clinton with his persistence in 2016--getting his supports too cranked up to ever come down and support the Hillary (12% of Sander's primary voters ended up voting for Trump, even more of them just sat it out).  He doesn't wanna hear another four years of recriminations for doing that again.
Speculation is that he'll hang in there long enough to get his one-on-one debate with Biden in Phoenix, Arizona (on Sunday), but probably get out before he has to face the Democratic voters in Florida (where his affinity for bloody Latino dictators is not much appreciated).  Both Arizona and Florida hold their primaries on the 17th.  So, the 16th maybe?

And, speaking of the Arizona debate, they've canceled the audience for that one on account of the coronavirus epidemic.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I am not much comforted by the news that Trump is gonna address the nation this evening (8:00 PM CDT; 9:00 PM EDT).

We can hope I'm favorably surprised by his address, but as of now….

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Not much comforted.  Got virtually nothing on how to get an actual testing regimen implemented (we are running way behind most of the 1st world nations on that) nor on assistance to health care providers.  It was all economics--tax cuts, tax credits, things like that.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I was going to listen to that, for a change, but I fell asleep. Sounds like I didn't miss much. Other than he has suspended travel from Europe. I'm not surprised that his focus would be on the financial aspect of it.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

We now have 5 cases in Minnesota.

Hmmm...they are considering pushing back the April 15th tax deadline...now I know it's serious. Now if they could just do that for the business deadline, which is March 16th that would be good.

It looks like they are trying to limit large groups. Probably not a bad idea for the more highly affected areas.



Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Bernie isn't throwing in the towel yet.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
It appears that Trump has quietly (and perhaps reluctantly accepted the advice to curb his traveling road show for the duration of the coronavirus outbreak.  This may prove interesting.  There's some folks theorizing that Trump'll get noticeably nuttier if he doesn't have that outlet for his narcissism.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Fed has announced a trillion dollar "repo" program.  "Repo" programs are usually billed as short term lending, but, in actual fact, they're almost always used as either corporate welfare, or (as in the current case) as cash kickbacks to stock traders who'll be willing to temporarily bid up the price of market stocks.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "President Donald Trump’s new European travel restrictions
      have a convenient side effect: They exempt nations where
      three Trump-owned golf resorts are located. ***
      "All three of the resorts are struggling financially."

      Politico

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I just started reading that other article from the Atlantic in the other thread. Depressing, very depressing, to realize that Trump so easily rolled just about everyone. The only thing that can stop him is the American voters, if they take their heads out of the sand.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It appears that Trump has quietly (and perhaps reluctantly accepted the advice to curb his traveling road show for the duration of the coronavirus outbreak.

Considering that he may have already been exposed, I don't think I would want to be anywhere near him. (Of course, I would feel that way anyway.)

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...


      "Trump so easily rolled just about everyone."

They had been prepped to be rolled.  And the preparation had been years in the formulation.
It is perhaps relevant that Trump prepared for his conversion to Republican politician by watching and listening to literally thousands of hours of FoxNews and Radio-Right-Wing; and having his staff prepare short, bullet-point summaries of the themes of many more hours for him to skim.

                           ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
      "I don't think I would want to be anywhere near him."

The audiences aren't actually allowed anywhere near him during his shows.  The worry is that they'd be infecting each other.  (And, of course, that they'd maybe quit showing up after an outbreak or two, which would probably not be good for Trump's ego.)

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Trump's "National Emergency" declaration prompted a thousand point surge in the stock market in the last 45 minutes of trading.  The Dow took back most of that major loss from yesterday.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The audiences aren't actually allowed anywhere near him during his shows. The worry is that they'd be infecting each other.

It's not necessarily fear of the virus that would be the reason I wouldn't want to be anywhere near him.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I only take a peak at the stock market now and again. I can't really do anything about it so why bother to worry? Nor am I going to cut and run and take just about everything out like one of my co-workers did.

The people I feel sorriest for are those whose jobs have disappeared literally over night. Until this virus passes we seem to be sliding into an economic hiatus. But they still have to buy groceries.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

14 cases in Minnesota now. All have been tied to interaction with people who have traveled.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I can't really do anything about it so why bother to worry?"

I wasn't actually worried about the market there.  I was thinking more of the political consequences, which are apt to be significant.  (I notice that Trump was sending out signed copies of the stock markets' upsurge graph late Friday.)

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I suppose it's no surprise, but it's pretty much Sander's last hope that Biden seriously screws up in tonight's one-on-one debate against Sanders.  (And even that might not be enough.)

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Meet the Press video:  Democrats are twice as likely to avoid large gatherings compared to Republicans; three times more likely to avoid eating at restaurants.  (It's o/t/a TV--gotta put up with a commercial first.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I may try to catch that debate. It will be nice to have a one on one debate to listen to rather than a mob debate. They are going to do it without a audience.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I think the last I saw was 35 cases here in Minnesota.

They are starting to close schools and toilet paper is like gold. At least the stores I was at today had none. I stocked up last week. But I feel for those who have run out. Kleenix seems to have gone missing too.

But there are still a lot of people out and about in the grocery stores.

I have a play scheduled for next Sunday but I have a feeling they may cancel the show. Other theaters have done so.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

People just can't or won't admit if they are wrong. It's hard to believe that that many Republicans actually believe Trump is doing a good job.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Fed just announced a new round of interest rate cuts and bond purchases that they claim are intended to "prevent market disruptions", i.e. shore up the price of stocks.  WallStreetJournal

I worry that they're going to shoot off all their ammo in an effort to keep the stock market artificially supported and have nothing left in their arsenal to fight of a crash in the real economy, but, as Lynnette said before, "I can't really do anything about it…".

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

And with an elbow bump they are off...Bernie and Joe that is.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I worry that they're going to shoot off all their ammo in an effort to keep the stock market artificially supported...

I agree. The economy will continue to deflate as people stay away from businesses. It's not something a rate cut is going to fix. They should have waited.

Once the virus passes there is going to be enough pent up demand to re-inflate the economy. The ones that will be hurt the most are the ones who the feds should be supporting, those who work in service industries making lower wages. They are going to be out of work for an unknown time.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

     
Sanders needed Biden to collapse, fail spectacularly, on-stage during the one-on-one debate; didn't happen.  In fact it may have been one of Biden's better performances (which ain't sayin' a whole lot).

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Yes, I thought Biden looked better than usual. I also liked that he said he would choose a woman for VP.

Although I gotta say I don't envy whoever takes the Oval office, because they will get an economy in shamble.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I think we are at 54 cases now. The Governor has ordered restaurants and bars to close to diners in house. Various other businesses are also ordered closed.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

And it's just amazing the things people are hoarding. Toilet paper is number one, I think, but flour, spices, phone cards...all gone missing.

The stock market sank 3,000 point today. Well, so much for my retirement. Who knows how long that will take to recover.

What we really need is a good blizzard to take people's minds off of the bug.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Say has anyone heard what is happening in Russia? Are they seeing infection there too?

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Russia closed its border with China a few weeks ago, and closed its borders with Poland and Norway late last week.  But they're not talking much about what's happening inside Russia.  Last I heard they'd only admitted to having less than a hundred cases in total.

Anonymous said...

Hello everyone. This is Jeffrey. Well, I'm currently locked down on a university campus in Ningbo, China. Any questions for me?

Anonymous said...

Last summer, I changed my data privacy stance, jettisoning my Google, Flickr, and Facebook accounts, for starters, so you'll see me commenting here as "anonymous," but I'll always add my name below.

I urge everyone to call it the Wuhan Virus instead of the name dictated to Tedros of the WHO by Xi Jinping.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Hey Jeffrey!

You're still in China? What have you seen over there?

Anonymous said...

Hi Lynnette,

Yes, still in China. After teaching for three years in another city in Zhejiang Province, I moved here to Ningbo to study Chinese and write a book. The Wuhan Virus hit right during the break between the two semesters. Right now I'm one of only six students residing on a campus that normally has 20,000 students. Every morning I get a temperature check, and at the only gate that is open I get checked leaving and entering.

I can tell you that the Wuhan Virus is due to very poor food safety practices and poor to nonexistent hygiene standards in China. For example, you will never find soap in bathrooms here. Or toilet paper, of course. People use small tissues to wipe themselves on squat toilets and then stroll out of the bathroom. Some may splash a little water on their fingertips, but most don't.

When medical teams swabbed the door handles of homes in Wuhan, they found the Wuhan Virus and feces -- not surprising to me at all. Oh, and every day I come across Chinese men spitting on the sidewalks. I yell at them in Chinese to stop spitting.

At the gate here the security guards have invested their money into a high-tech heat camera attached to a laptop, but there isn't a single soap dispenser on campus. I tell them that they're going to put everyone at risk again when the students return. They just smile. Control and surveillance are far more important to them than health.

As soon as flights to Taiwan open, I'll be moving there. I certainly hope there isn't a second wave here, but if so you'll know why.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Perhaps you'd be more comfortable studying Japanese as opposed to Chinese?

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Japanese for beginners.

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

Thanks for the link, but studying Chinese was just for writing a book about teaching in China. It was also a way for me to talk to the university teachers here.

I do have a friend living in Tokyo, though, currently working as an accountant for Ralph Lauren. He's telling me they're taking a beating right now. He's married to a Japanese woman with three grown children, half American and half Japanese. Believe it or not, we've been friends for over forty years. He used to work for Kodak up in Buffalo. Lots of great stories about its slow descent.

As you know, I don't really follow politics, but last summer, while visiting in the US, I got to see one of the Democratic presidential candidate debates. Oh man, I loved all the contentious exchanges -- after several years in China where any kind of discussion is impossible. My question: Who did you think of the original ten or so Democratic candidates was the best? You can interpret that however you want. Best qualified or best chance of winning a general election.

I have to say I'm a little surprised that Biden may win the nomination. Is he really the best the Democrats can come up with?

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Hold it, wasn't Kodak in Rochester?

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "Who did you think of the original…Democratic candidates was the
      …best qualified?"


Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden, in approximately that order on qualifications.  (Not an indication of which way I'd vote.)  Ranked in order of whom I'd vote for--Klobuchar and Buttigieg in a close race for 1st, then Biden.

Nobody thinks that Biden is the best the Democrats could offer.  But, they do think that he's the one who's most likely to compete well for votes among those folks who might consider voting for Trump, but really don't wanna.  And, considering that Trump is a minority President (he got almost 3 million fewer votes than Hillary Clinton), they think if they can just entice an additional small percentage of Trump's voters to vote Democrat, then they'll beat Trump this time.  Don't have to be much, just an additional sliver.  Biden is the guy they think most likely to entice a few more Trump voters to vote Democrat, most likely to get 'em that sliver.

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

That's a great run-down. Okay, which one of them do you think has the toughest stance on China? I've seen how China operates up close and personal. I think the CCP is a major threat to the world -- on multiple levels. Anyone can be disappeared here. There's no legal recourse, no individual rights, no freedom of speech, and no freedom of the press (of course). So from your list, which one would be able handle Xi Jinping and the CCP? If I were to vote, this would be one of the issues I'd focus on.

About Biden, I've seen hints that he can be attacked for corruption. Is that so or what?

And a very basic question. How important do you think the choice of an American president is? Some say that each new president brings in enough qualified people to Washington to make the country run reasonably well, and it's these people -- not really the president -- who in fact are important. What do you think?

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I've seen hints that [Biden] can be attacked for corruption."

Any one can be attacked for corruption.  Biden spent 36 years in the Senate, and came out not a millionaire.  That's because he was almost squeaky clean; would take campaign contributions (legal) would not take bribes (illegal)--just didn't care enough about money to bother lining his own nest.  (I believe he finally crossed the millionaire threshold as Veep, a function of the much higher pay.).
I don't know who'd be ‛toughest’ on China; hard to say.  China's gotten way less popular in Washington D.C. these last few years, pretty much across the board, as President Xi has fairly obviously turned China away from the path towards democratization.  A path that some folks thought China was on prior to Xi. (Whether or not some folks were right about that is another question entirely.  Simple fact is, hardly nobody believes that anymore and Xi is a good part of the reason why.)

      "Some say that each new president brings in enough qualified
      people to Washington to make the country run reasonably
      well…"


The Trump administration is pretty much proof positive that this notion is false.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Trump's been on stage at the White House for a very rare press conference (evidence that he knows his attempts to tweet the plague away have been unsuccessful, and that the dedicated Trumpkins are beginning to notice it).  Been up there an hour or more.  I just walked by an operating TV set and accidentally noticed it.

I wasn't able to take the time to watch, but did turn on the DVR so I can watch it later.
However, what little bit I could catch indicates this was an attempt to shed blame as much as anything else.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Washington Post report:  The Brits have produced a government report which models the spread of the coronavirus unabated, and it predicts deaths in the millions in the United States and half a million in Britain.  With aggressive government containment efforts they're still modeling over a million dead in the United States and more than a quarter million dead in Britain.  It's pretty damn grim.

But, it's just a model--still, it's pretty damn grim.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

60 cases in Minnesota today. There are none in out state Minnesota yet, just near the cities and southern counties.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Jeffrey, it sounds like you have been having a rather exciting adventure. But you may be right to make a change now. If this virus lasts too long in other parts of the world it isn't going to make it any easier in China. Even if they don't have a recurrence the economic impact of the tanking global economy may not go over well there at all.

I'm not surprised at the lack of proper hygiene. These things always seem to originate in China. But this virus is flourishing all over the world now, so it's a little different.

We seem to have some kind of disconnect here between those who are acting as if the world is ending, hoarding anything they see, and those who aren't even concerned, maintaining all of their usual behavior. Somewhere in between would perhaps be a better idea.

There are now about 5,700 cases in the US. Testing has increased. But even the areas who have shelter in place orders aren't really taking the extreme measures that were taken in Wuhan. People are still out and about, acting as possible carriers.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

For my two cents on Biden, I may not have thought he was the best Democratic candidate, but I do think he is head and shoulders above Trump. I would love to see a Biden/Klobuchar ticket.

Biden has won Florida and is ahead in Illinois.

And the very fact that these states have chosen not to reschedule their primary elections means that they are not really taking the health crisis seriously.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Jeffrey: "Some say that each new president brings in enough qualified
people to Washington to make the country run reasonably
well…"


Lee: "The Trump administration is pretty much proof positive that this notion is false."

Lol!

That was my first thought, Lee, when I saw that. While there may have been some qualified people around him, like James Mattis, he managed to corrupt or disregard all of them.

Anonymous said...

Lee C. and Lynnette,

I'll respond to both of you later, but right now I have to head out the door. The 12-hour time difference between Ningbo and US EST means that my responses may come at odd times for you guys.

To tell you the truth, I know nothing about Donald Trump, only that he evidently likes to tweet (and I dislike Twitter) and that from afar he appears to boast a lot (which is, to me, a bit unseemly, but sadly not un-American).

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lynnette,

We seem to have some kind of disconnect here between those who are acting as if the world is ending, hoarding anything they see, and those who aren't even concerned, maintaining all of their usual behavior. Somewhere in between would perhaps be a better idea.

That's my impression, too, sitting here in China. As you say, less hoarding and more home-isolation would be a good idea.

Oh, I just saw that Taiwan closed the door to all foreigners. Back to the drawing board.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lynnette,

I'm not surprised at the lack of proper hygiene. These things always seem to originate in China. But this virus is flourishing all over the world now, so it's a little different.

Yes, the regular seasonal flus generally originate from Southeast Asia, mostly from China (for the reasons stated above, and adding the factor of population density). Yes, this one is much more devious than the others.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

China's gotten way less popular in Washington D.C. these last few years, pretty much across the board, as President Xi has fairly obviously turned China away from the path towards democratization.

Less popular from a bipartisan perspective? I hope so.

You're right. Xi Jinping has steered the CCP into new waters. It's not exactly Mao II, although it has a milder version of the cult of personality that was central to Mao's reign.

With Xi, it's insider power politics at its deadliest. First to go was Bo Xilai, and then he went after all others who could challenge him. He's been successful -- very successful -- at sidelining threats from within, but most China watchers know that those other parties are waiting to retaliate. I'm not sure if they'll get their chance.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Less popular from a bipartisan perspective?"

Yep; across the board.  The notion that "engagement" with China would help 'democratize' their government and make them an ethical player in the international system (by giving them a 'stake' in that system), that notion proved to be wishful thinking.  And those who'd gambled some of their credibility on that notion are a bit pissed off about it now.  The ones who thought it was wishful thinking from the beginning haven't changed their minds about it even a little bit

So, yeah, pretty much across the board.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Biden won Arizona and Illinois as well as Florida--none of them even close.  Sanders is toast.

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

So, yeah, pretty much across the board.

Good to hear.

Jude Blanchette, author of a recent book on China called China's New Red Guards, was asked a question about whether those advocating engagement with China (WTO and so on) back then were wrong, and he said no. He was afoot in China in the early 2000s and he said even the Chinese themselves thought that some loosening would come with engagement with the West.

But some within the CCP saw any type of loosening as an existential threat to the party -- and the CCP has a simple set of priorities. First priority is the CCP as THE driver of the car -- no one else has the skills to drive the current vehicle. Thus the Propaganda Department is massively manned and funded. At first the Internet was unmonitored, but soon thereafter came the Great Firewall and the legions of fifty-cent warriors.

Do you think the Wuhan Virus will speed up decoupling?

Quick story. In the city where I taught, in a Starbucks, I chatted with Mike Kersey, the CEO of an American company called American Lawn Mower. Over a hundred years old, but about a decade ago they set up factories in Zhejiang Province.

We had a great talk and I learned a lot from him. Anyway, in the summer of 2018, he made three trips to Washington to complain about the tariffs that were clobbering a couple of the items they were bringing back into the US.

I've been thinking of him the last few months. Back in Indianapolis are the corporate headquarters with a staff of around thirty. As far as I know, ALL of the manufacturing of lawn care products is done here in China. What the heck is he doing now? The company may have already gone under. And probably not enough funds to relocate to Vietnam.

Anyway, Kersey's story is just one of many that won't be able to decouple and are headed for rough times indeed.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "Do you think the Wuhan Virus will speed up decoupling?"

It will be used as an argument by those who seek decoupling for other reasons.  Too early to know how effective the argument will become.  Too many other variables.  (The fact that the covid-19 virus originated in Wuhan is almost irrelevant.  Recent virus scares have also originated in Africa (Ebola) and Saudi Arabia (MERS).  Once a nasty new virus gets loosed upon the world, where it originated rapidly becomes irrelevant.  What's relevant is its kill rate, how it spreads, and how easily it spreads.)

Marcus said...

Hiya Jerrfey!

Nice to see you back on the blog.

Myself I should be coming back from SEA right about now but I never went this year due to a massive waterleak in my home and that I felt I needed to stay home for the renovations. And tbh I was a bit fed up w Asia anyway and the only reason for my last 5 or so annual visits was my BF lives there w his family.

He works in the tourism industry and has had to cut everyting down to the bone. Laid off 2/3 of staff and the rest are on half time. They just struggle to survive right now and hope the chineese will travel again in the fall..

I had hoped to delay my annual holiday until April-May and go to the US. I was planning on visiting Louisiana and New Orleans. i guss Corona shot that plan to shit.

Anyways, take care and hope you make it to Taiwan.

Marcus

Marcus said...

Writin on pad so sry for spelling

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Jeffrey,

Oddly, your description of Xi Jinping's behavior in consolidating power reminds me a bit of Trump's behavior. Although Trump has not totally eliminated his rivals in exactly the same manner as Xi, or perhaps Putin, in his quest to become all powerful. That the United States would have elected such a person as president has been a sad disappointment. This goes way beyond simple disagreement with Trump's policies. It's his undemocratic behavior that is really the scariest aspect of his administration.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Xi Jinping's behavior in consolidating power reminds me
      a bit of Trump's behavior."


I might point out that Trump has been quite solicitous of President Xi; even as he's slapped tariffs on China--he's never let that bit of competition dull his public admiration and praise of Xi.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Of course I can't say for sure but I have a feeling that the tariffs will be the least of our worries in the near future. The American economy is slowly shutting down in an effort to stop something we can't even see.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Well, one thing we don't have to worry about.  If Trump tries to declare an emergency and cancel the 2020 election then Nancy Pelosi will take over as the 46th President of the United States on 21 January 2021.

Ain't no way the Republicans are gonna let that happen.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

So the latest number of cases here in Minnesota I believe stands at 76. We are running short of test kits so they are limiting the number of tests. So that may explain the relatively low number. So far we don't have the larger numbers in the hospital as you see in other locations.

We are slowly shutting down locations where people gather. Our restaurants are limited to take out only. No haircut or play for me this weekend. Both the theater and hair salon are shutdown. Many people are working from home if they are able. I don't know, I suspect that eventually we too will end up sheltering in place.

They are appealing to the hoarders to stop stockpiling toilet paper. But other things are going missing too. "Just in time" stocking is leaving us with empty shelves.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I don't understand the hoarding of toilet paper.  It's not like the coronavirus gives people the shits.  The run on hand sanitizer I can at least understand, but the toilet paper doesn't actually make any sense to me. (Nor a bunch of other stuff that seems to be vanishing from store shelves.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I have started to wonder if Trump will play the "wartime" president card. He already has alluded to that. I suspect that might not work here. Even if we beat the virus in short order it may take some time to restart the economy.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I suspect that people fear they will be confined to their homes for an extended period of time like in China and won't be able to go out and buy necessities. For me I can't understand the run on bottled water. It's not like the tap is going to stop running. I mentioned that to a cashier at the grocery store and she suggested they may think the water will become infected. Now that doesn't make sense to me since we chlorinate our city water.

They are saying 149 deaths and 8,736 known cases in the US.

Anonymous said...

Lee C. and Lynnette,

Before I respond to your comments on Trump and Xi equivalency, let me ask a question: Have either of you ever voted for a Republican candidate at any level of government?

Marcus,

And hello to you, too. I will respond in a bit. One thing that has changed over the years is that China has become not just a manufacturing base but that China has truly become a market for Western goods, especially luxury goods, and that the Chinese have suddenly become travelers. So I guess that the decoupling I mentioned above could go both ways, with lots of consequences (like for your friend). Anyway, more later.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
I voted for Ted Cruz for President in 2016.  He's a Republican, and a Texan.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
And I voted for John McCain for President in 2004.  He was a Republican, but not a Texan.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

  
      "The [CDC] report, issued Wednesday…found that…of the 508
     
[American] patients known to have been hospitalized, 38
      percent were…between 20 and 54
[years old]. And nearly half
      of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units
      were adults under 65…".

      NewYorkTimes

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

Cruz in the 2016 primaries, got it. So can I assume you are a registered Republican? And did you vote in the 2016 general election?

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "So can I assume you are a registered Republican?"

The local Republican Party has certainly assumed just that for years now; although, technically, my voter registration was and remains "unaffiliated".

      "And did you vote in the 2016 general election?"

Yes.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
@ Lynnette:

Gasoline @ $1.79⁹

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

I knew nothing about Ted Cruz, so I took a quick look at his Wiki page. Well, if our government has people of his smarts and caliber, then the US will be fine.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

So your issues with Trump stem from buyer's remorse?

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I didn't vote for Trump.  Nor did I vote for Hillary, (although I certainly would have if she'd stood a tinker's chance in Hell of carrying my state and earning those electoral votes.  However, the polling was clear; Trump was gonna win my (rural) state in a landslide, so I didn't have to vote for Hillary, 'cause it didn't really matter who I voted for as President.)
In point of fact, I haven't voted for any Republican in any general election since Trump was nominated as the Republican candidate for President in July of 2016.  Nor will I.  I will not vote for any Republican in any general election, 'til the party gets rid of Trump.  Not even for dogcatcher.  #NeverTrump

As for the primaries:
 
      "I usually vote in the Republican primary. If ya wanna have
      any say about who wins local office
(sheriff, prosecutor,
      county commissioners, etc.), the Republican primary is where
      all that's decided; that's where the action is. The general
      election is held just as a ritual confirmation that this was
      Republican country
(now Trumpkin territory)."
      Lee C. @ Tue Mar 03, 04:10:00 pm (prior thread)

Anonymous said...

Lee C., Lynnette, and Marcus,

Tonight I talked to an old friend currently living in Melbourne and she had an interesting idea. She said that something about national character will be revealed in each country's response to the Wuhan Virus. It makes sense to me.

Here in China, naturally the heavy-handed control fanatics of the CCP prevailed, pounding people on the head if they refused to wear a mask, bolting people inside their apartments if they were running a fever. The Chinese people mostly accept that it's the best way.

But this afternoon, I talked to another international student here named Nana, from Iran, and she told me that many in Iran are just resigned to the situation. It's God's will. If they have to die, then it's been decreed from above and they can't do much about it.

In one country, an authoritarian knee-jerk response, and in another a deep-seated fatalism.

What do you think? It might be a good way to interpret the unique responses in each country.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

Ah, now i got it. As I told you, I really know nothing about Trump, but from what you say, he must have a whole pile of negatives to have you even refuse to vote for a Republican running for Canine Control.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

Well, I should add that if you were running for Sheriff in any county, I'd vote for you.

Sheriff Lee C. Hm. Has a good ring to it. Right, Kurdo?

Damn straight.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Jeffrey,

Yes, I have voted for a Republican in the past. I have also voted for Democrats and Independents. I tend to vote according to how I feel about the candidate's positions or if they have a quality I feel would be an asset to the job. Their party affiliation was never why I voted for them. For instance, I have voted for Amy Klobuchar even though I don't always agree with her because I think she is a very smart, tough and sensible person. That last is important. I voted for one Republican because he stood up to his party and voted for an increase in taxes when it was necessary to pay for infrastructure improvements.

I liked John McCain. I felt he truly served in government for the sake of our country, not for the sake if himself. I voted for him for president as well.

Unlike Lee I would consider voting for a Republican. If that person were to stand up to Donald Trump.

I feel that Donald Trump has done more than any president before him to ruin this country. With the help of Mitch McConnell. Both should be removed from office.

#NeverTrump

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Lee,

I just bought gas today, $1.60. But no traffic on the roads to speak of.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There is some good news One of the drugs that had been developed to use against Ebola has proven to be effective in two cases of Covid-19 they have tried it on.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Jeffrey,

We are hearing news out of China that they have no new cases of the coronavirus. How accurate is that report?

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I would consider voting for a Republican. If that person were
      to stand up to Donald Trump."


Unicorns; she's saying she'd vote for a unicorn if one happened to run for public office in Minnesota.

Anonymous said...

Lee C. and Lynnette,

Well, both of you seem to be very level-headed voters, not just pulling the lever for a single party out of loyalty to that group.

I come from a big family, eight children, and they're pretty evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans. Last summer, six of us got together on the east coast during my visit and the first rule for our time together was that any mention of politics was forbidden. So I have no idea if they'd be as flexible as you two are.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lynnette,

Unlikely that it's accurate. Right now comes the scary part. Because they've announced no new cases, any official who reports even a single new confirmed case will face censure or even jail time. That's how it works here. Remember the doctor that was pulled in for "spreading rumors"? That was standard operating protocol here.

But listen, it's also possible that the numbers are very low. Could be. Right now I'd say 90 percent of shops are open again and all the construction sites are humming with activity.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lee C. and Lynnette,

As I've said, I don't know anything about Trump and don't follow politics very much, but maybe I should find out something about him since you guys both think he's not fit for the office of president.

Oh, I did see that he called the Wuhan Virus the "Chinese virus," which I have to admit I appreciated.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I did see that he called the Wuhan Virus the 'Chinese virus,'
      which I have to admit I appreciated."


I have noticed that quite a substantial percentage of the right-winger media have taken up the project to brand the covid-19 pathogen as Chinese (or as "Wuhan"; either seems to be acceptable for the propagandizing effort).  Seems to be very important to them.  (Trying to make that important, and other efforts of similar probative non-value, probably has causal connection with the fact that FoxNews' audience averages 68 years old.)

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

The CCP has a huge department simply called the Propaganda Department, which I referenced above. Even as confirmed cases were exploding around them, their main concern was to get Tedros to re-name the virus coming from Wuhan, China. They have even now floated ideas that it really came from outside China, in one case that the US Army planted it in Wuhan. Thousands of Chinese working for that department focus on deflecting the true origin of the Wuhan Virus. The "propagandizing effort" you mention in the US is very loose and uncoordinated when compared to the work being done in the CCP department straight out of Orwell's 1984.

To me, it's the Wuhan Virus. I'm certainly not a "right-winger," just someone who lives in a totalitarian country and knows how they operate.

I personally would not call it the "Chinese virus." "Wuhan virus" works for me.

By the way, are you surprised that older people are more conservative? Dismissing millions of Americans who don't agree with you by labeling them "right wingers" seems suspect to me.

The beauty of the US, and Western democracies in general, is the free flow of differences of ALL kinds. You'd come to appreciate this very quickly if you were stuck in a place where ONE PARTY controls everything and there is only ONE answer for everything (Mao was 70% correct and 30% in error, for example).

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*



   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...


      "Dismissing millions of Americans who don't agree with you by
      labeling them 'right wingers' seems suspect to me.
"

If millions of Americans are advocating hard for renaming the covid-19 virus to something that emphasizes its Chinese origins, I'm totally unaware of where they might be congregating to for this "millions of Americans" endeavor.  News to me.  Probably be news to them too.
In any case, I was talking about an effort I've noticed taking off in the right-wing media.  Breitbart, FoxNews, Drudge, etc.  If "millions of Americans" are in on this effort, with some sort of assist to offer the effort, I've certainly not noticed it(yet…, the dedicated Trumpkins will probably pick it up soon enough).

I would point out that the World Health Organization issued its new guidelines on the naming of diseases, to discourage the use of place of origin names in the spring of 2015.  So, you need to quit listening to whomever it was that told you the Chinese lobbied them successfully to not name the covid-19 virus as Chinese.  They fed ya a line of bullshit.  You probably need to cultivate better sources.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "They have even now floated ideas that it really came from outside
      China, in one case that the US Army planted it in Wuhan."


Yes, I'm aware of that.  Although, the argument that, "The Chinese do it too" does not generally convince me that it's a good idea for the Americans to engage in shallow propaganda on any particular subject.

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

I can't follow your logic there. I said the effort in the US you mentioned was "loose and uncoordinated" compared to the effort by the Propaganda Department of the CCP.

I've been out of the US for almost a decade now, and even when I was in the US I didn't watch TV -- at all. I've never seen a minute of any of the programs you mentioned. So I have no idea if what you say is accurate or not.

About the WHO and the new guidelines for naming, that may be true, but for me I'll call it the Wuhan Virus. Who knows? Those new guidelines were probably drafted by the Propaganda Department of the CCP itself. They know that viruses are going to continue coming from mainland China. As I said, even now there's still no soap in the bathrooms here and people still spit on the street.

One day, I even saw a mother pull down a child's pants and had the kid take a shit on the pavement three feet away from the front door of a Starbucks. The Starbucks was packed, huge glass windows, everyone could see, no one batted an eyelash. Completely unremarkable.

The Wuhan Virus isn't the first virus out of China, and it certainly won't be the last.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I can't follow your logic there."

I'll try again then.  I've noticed that, what seems to be "quite a substantial percentage of the right-winger media have taken up the project to [re-brand] the covid-19 pathogen".  I'm talkin' Breitbart, FoxNews, Drudge, etc.
I figure (on account of the histories of these outlets) that I can call them "right-winger media" as a fair descriptive and shorthand reference.
I haven't noticed any "millions of Americans" gettin' in on the project as of yet, although I'm fairly certain that it'll eventually get drummed into the heads of the dedicated Trumpkins (again, I'm making that assumption from historical examples, recent history, that I can recall).  But, again, I haven't noticed it takin' off among their target audience as of yet.  I certainly haven't noticed the effort being taken up by "millions of Americans", not as of yet anyway.

You follow it now?  Or you still confused?

                           ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
      "Those new guidelines were probably drafted by the Propaganda
      Department of the CCP itself."


Evidence for that seems to me to be too slim to justify crankin' up the applicable adjective to "probably".

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

Seems we have a basic misunderstanding. My reference to "millions of Americans" was to a separate point from the virus naming issue. About the naming issue, I assume we agree. There is no coordinated effort by "millions of Americans" in the US on this issue.

But here's my "millions of Americans" phrase in its original context:

By the way, are you surprised that older people are more conservative? Dismissing millions of Americans who don't agree with you by labeling them "right wingers" seems suspect to me.

Like I said, half of my family are conservative. Are they "right wingers"? I wouldn't say so, but I know they watch programs from Fox News. Again, would you call half of the American population "right wingers"?

Is this "Trumpkin" your designation?

Do you really watch all those shows? I can't imagine it, to be honest. Left or right, I despise all of those hosts. Are Maddow and Hannity still hosts? There's a reason I stopped watching TV almost fifteen years ago.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*


      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Like I said, half of my family are conservative. Are
      they 'right wingers'?"


I wouldn't know.  Being a conservative and being a "right-winger" are often confused and conflated.  (I have but to notice that when I designated right-winger media outlets as purveyors of this re-branding effort, you immediately popped up with a allusion to "millions of Americans, presumably older and more conservative, so you very well may confuse and conflate the terms as well.)
But, I don't know your family.  And I don't know your parameters for applying either term.  That half of your family might be either; they might be both.

And yes, not all Republicans are supporters of Trump (or, at least they weren't originally), the Republican Party has fairly clearly undergone a transformation in the last three years, and it's now the Party of Trump--old fashioned Republican conservatism is no longer a large part of the Party Platform.  And there are some people who are not yet Republicans in name who are nevertheless rabid Trump supporters, so I use the designation of "Trumpkins" to distinguish the followers of Trump from the Republican Party that I grew up with.  Some of them were Republicans in a prior American political configuration, some were not.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Couple of typos there.  I was trying to watch the DVR while typing, but I'm gonna let 'em go.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Do you really watch all those shows?"

No.  For instance:  Hannity and Maddow are both cable TV hosts.  I don't take cable TV, never have--there's already enough free TV that I don't bother to watch.  Don't need to pay for more channels that I won't bother to watch either.  But I do read.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Unicorns; she's saying she'd vote for a unicorn if one happened to run for public office in Minnesota.

lol!

Yeah, I know, maybe I still believe in miracles.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Remember the doctor that was pulled in for "spreading rumors"? That was standard operating protocol here.

Yes, that's why I was a little skeptical of the zero new cases. But even if it is true, that apparently doesn't mean it is over. At least that is the opinion of some. There is a chance of recurrence. Given the lack of hygiene that seems likely.

I understand that the propaganda machine in a country like China is far more advanced than anything we have here. But the effect on some is little different. They are still taken in and ultimately used for the advantage of those in power.

I would very much like to think that Americans, with their history of democracy, would be hard to fool. But I fear that is not the case.

I suppose we will see what happens in November.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

115 cases have been found so far in Minnesota. Some have already recovered. There have been no deaths here so far that I am aware of.

The Governor has not ordered us to shelter in place yet. But the roads are eerily empty. Makes it nice for those of us who are still working, but it's not a good sign. I feel for all of the people who are sitting idle with no income coming in. For parents who have children to look after it's got to be very scary.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I am starting to think that both of you are right, there really isn't much good on television. That includes cable. A good book is really the way to go!

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "The Governor has not ordered us to shelter in place yet."

Matter of time perhaps.  I've stocked up on the appropriate stainless steel fasteners and specialty wood glues for a red-cedar and redwood project for which I've had the lumber drying in racks out back over-winter.  Ain't likely I'll get too much time on my hands with spring about to spring upon us, but, just in case…

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

And yes, not all Republicans are supporters of Trump (or, at least they weren't originally), the Republican Party has fairly clearly undergone a transformation in the last three years, and it's now the Party of Trump--old fashioned Republican conservatism is no longer a large part of the Party Platform..

Oh, I didn't know about this transformation at all. From afar, I just remember hearing that this guy Trump, who I remember as some kind of real estate guy and maybe a TV personality, won the election. I had no idea he was even in politics. So it sounds like that in your view Trump has hijacked the Republican Party, right?

And there are some people who are not yet Republicans in name who are nevertheless rabid Trump supporters, so I use the designation of "Trumpkins" to distinguish the followers of Trump from the Republican Party that I grew up with. Some of them were Republicans in a prior American political configuration, some were not..

Got it.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*





      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Trump has hijacked the Republican Party, right?"

I think the better comparison would better be what is called, in a corporate context, a "hostile takeover".  That concept probably fits more closely than does a "hijacking".

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Okay, that particular piece of lousy editing bothers me; should read as:

      "I think the better comparison would be what is called, in a corporate context…"

Anonymous said...

Lynnette,

I would very much like to think that Americans, with their history of democracy, would be hard to fool. But I fear that is not the case.

No, you're right. Even with freedom of speech and a free press, people can be fooled. Barnum, take a bow. But at least multiple views are available and a savvy person can weigh the evidence and examine the sources of information. But I would also add that many of the disagreements are ones of value and value priorities, and thus, riffing on Iraq the Model's masthead quotation from Swift, not amenable to reason.

In the West, we start to do this type of critical analysis almost from the cradle. In China, they completely lack these basic skills. A single question is a threat to the CCP.

This basic difference in critical thinking skills hit me as soon as I started to teach students here in China who were headed to the West. I had one year to get them ready. It was not easy.

So yep, people can be fooled, including Americans, but Westerners are skilled at questioning any and all in authority (and that's good).

On a side note, a student from that first class in China just graduated in three and a half years from Indiana University and returned to China in January to start her job search. Bad timing, but she was one of the better students from that class and she'll be fine. Oh, and one of my students from that same class, Class of 2015, is currently at University of Minnesota.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

Yes, "hostile takeover" sounds more accurate from your description.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
California, which has recently legalized recreational marijuana, and which has just declared a state-wide "lockdown" has seen the purchase of marijuana shoot through the roof.  link  Gotta do something to improve their mood as they sit around the house I guess.  Marijuana ain't recreational legal here, so I got red-cedar lumber and stainless steel fasteners instead.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified
      warnings in January and February about the global danger
      posed by the coronavirus while President Trump and
      lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action
      that might have slowed the spread of the pathogen….
                                  ***
      "Taken together, the reports and warnings painted an
      early picture of a virus that showed the characteristics of a
      globe-encircling pandemic that could require governments to
      take swift actions to contain it. But despite that constant flow
      of reporting, Trump continued publicly and privately to play
      down the threat the virus posed to Americans.
                                ***
      "The warnings from U.S. intelligence agencies increased in
      volume toward the end of January and into early February,
      said officials familiar with the reports. By then, a majority of
      the intelligence reporting included in daily briefing papers
      and digests from the Office of the Director of National
      Intelligence and the CIA was about covid-19, said officials who
      have read the reports."

      WashingtonPost

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
South Korea, with a population of 51 million people has done almost 300,000 covid-19 tests on its citizens.
The United States, with a population of 330 million people has done just 100,000 tests as of yesterday afternoon.

As a result, South Korea has been able to medically isolate a substantial percentage of their infected population (under medical care) and seemingly has "turned the corner" on new instances of the disease (for now anyway; new waves of infection are always a possibility).
The United States on the other hand is recommending that those who "think" they may have contracted the virus should "self-isolate at home" because we don't have the testing capabilities to test them and find out who actually has the virus, nor the medical facilities in which to quarantine all the suspected infected.  "Self-isolation-at-home" means they're probably infecting their family members.
The upshot is that the virus trajectory in the United States is curving up, and in South Korea it's curving down.

If anybody wants to know why we're worried about the infection rate in Italy and not in South Korea, it's because our federal government is following the Italian model of response instead of the South Korean model of response.

The feds know what works; they're just not doing it.

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

The upshot is that the virus trajectory in the United States is curving up, and in South Korea it's curving down.

If anybody wants to know why we're worried about the infection rate in Italy and not in South Korea, it's because our federal government is following the Italian model of response instead of the South Korean model of response.


Absolutely correct. Sitting here in China, I've been really disappointed by the response in the US. Back in January and February, the few snippets I read coming from Trump sounded like "happy talk." Each week, I kept thinking, "Surely NOW they're going to get serious." But only in the last week or so have changes occurred.

The three countries that have earned my respect are South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore. All the others refused to make the hard but necessary decisions.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
We're looking at a shortage of respirators, maybe a shortfall of 50,000 (conservative estimate) at the expected high point of the epidemic in America.
Just the day before yesterday Trump announced to a conference call of state governors that his federal government was not going to be a "shipping clerk" for respirators to send to the states.  He's sitting on the power to declare a national emergency and order industrial conversion to the production of respirators (He's invoked his nation emergency powers--perhaps anticipating he'd be able to cancel the 2020 election--turns out that won't work out for him.  But now he refuses to order up the necessary respirators--told the governors, who don't have the power to order them, to somehow find the respirators themselves.)

Anonymous said...

Lee C.,

I'll keep my eye on that.

I wonder what happened in Hubei Province during the deadliest weeks. Did they run out of respirators? I'm not sure. It's really hard to get detailed information here.

Jeffrey / Ningbo, China

*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Trump's found us a cure for covid-19.  Trumptweets It's a retweet of a posting by one Michale Cordray, says it's 4 hours old, so that'd be approximately 8:30 this morning.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Jeffrey,

I hope your student is enjoying Minnesota. Right now is probably not a good time to be Chinese in America unfortunately. There are some who blame anyone Asian for the virus.

The true measure of a person's character comes out during times of crisis.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

He's sitting on the power to declare a national emergency and order industrial conversion to the production of respirators...

Medtronic, which makes ventilators, is ramping up production. While Trump hasn't been pushing for more production others in government have. Senator Bob Menendez sent a letter to medical tech companies wanting to know what they are doing to increase production. Medtronic is doubling its workforce of 250 in Ireland where they make ventilators. I know it may not sound like much but at least it's a start.

This is the kind of thing that has rolled over Italy. They probably wouldn't have lost so many people if they had the medical equipment they need.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Medtronic is doubling its workforce of 250 in Ireland where
      they make ventilators.
"

Ireland is part of the E.U. which just late last week passed sweeping bans on the export of medical equipment useful in fighting the covid-19 virus.  FinancialTimes  So those ventilators may not make it to the United States.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I do not have any background in epidemiology so my questions may sound uniformed, but I will ask them anyway.

I am hearing that people are very worried about this virus because it is "new" and people do not have any immunity so it will spread through the population rapidly. And obviously many are getting infected with the virus. My first question is if no one has any immunity to the virus then why do we have so many mild cases where people either don't know they have it or they experience very mild symptoms? If I remember my history the reasons so many Native Americans died from smallpox was because they truly did not have any immunity from that disease. Wouldn't we see many more deaths from this virus if people weren't able to fight it off?

My second question is would it not be possible to create a vaccine to treat the virus from the antibodies of a person who has had the disease? Or if this is possible would it just take too long? Is that why testing of current drugs may offer a quicker cure if one can be found to work?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I wonder what happened in Hubei Province during the deadliest weeks. Did they run out of respirators? I'm not sure. It's really hard to get detailed information here.

It's even harder here. Someone was telling me about a Chinese woman he had met who was telling stories about bodies in China being bulldozed in the street. I suspect that was a bit of an exaggeration. It appears that Italy has surpassed China in deaths. Sad all the way around.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Ireland is part of the E.U. which just late last week passed sweeping bans on the export of medical equipment useful in fighting the covid-19 virus.

Someone was just talking about what countries would do, help themselves at the expense of other countries, or try to share. I guess we are seeing where the EU stands.

Senator Menendez may not be too thrilled when he realizes that. But I suppose it kind of goes along with that America first policy that Trump was pushing. In this case it is the EU first. What goes around comes around. *sigh*

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Our people do not yet have any covid-19 specific antibodies.  However antibodies are only one part of the body's immune response.  (A very important part I'll grant you, but there are other layers.)

I read that there are indeed people working on doing blood serum research (blood fluid without the blood cells) to see if getting the antibodies from recovered patients works with this virus--they're looking into that.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Also, we don't have enough "recovered" victims to provide anti-bodies for all the people who're gonna be getting sick.  We can only strain so much blood outta each of those people, even if that works.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
New York City, among other very large municipalities has ceased testing suspected cases of covid-19.  They're running out of testing supplies (swabs, beakers, masks for people administering the tests, etc.)  They say the only people they're testing are sick patients whom they want to confirm as suffering from the virus for the purposes of "decisions about treatment" (I'm afraid that last phrase is a euphemism for rationing treatment.)

The virus is loose; too late for us to mimic the South Korean response.

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
This may be a passing anomaly, but FoxNews, and FoxNews/Politics pages both have stories on their main pages mentioning politicians who're being critical of Trump and/or mentioning that the good news spouting forth from administration spokesmen seems to be a little light on supporting facts.  Usually those stories don't get told on FoxNews, and FoxNews isn't chiming in with facts of their own in support of those stories, but instead they are actually covering the criticisms (not agreeing with them mind you, but they're at least acknowledging that the criticisms are being made); they don't usually cover such stories; that's a potential harbinger of bad reviews for Trump's performance that might be yet to come.

Unless, of course, it's just a passing anomaly.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I'm just listening to Trump's press conference now. I also listened to Andrew Cuomo this morning briefing the citizens of New York. There is an article up on the CNN website regarding the contrast between the two men.

I have to say that while I was listening to Cuomo I couldn't help but wish he as running for President. He is the kind of leader we really need in a time like this.

I can't help but think that the contrast will sink in eventually with some other people as well. Yes, it may be an anomaly, but on the other hand maybe not.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Speaking of sinking, the Dow-Jones "futures" market nosedived this afternoon as the President took to the podium and began to speak, eventually hitting its "down limit" where they cut off trading.

Not lookin' good for a stock market recovery tomorrow morning.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

No. I suspect that the market won't be recovering anytime soon.