This morning the Governor of New York
spoke to the citizens of his state. It's long, but I thought it was
worth posting for anyone to listen to.
Life is a series of choices. How we
make those choices matters, to us and to others. I know many of you
have probably noticed the missing items in your grocery store, like
toilet paper or bottled water. Hoarding is a horrible byproduct of
this crisis. Filling your basement with a truckload of toilet paper
at the expense of others is not a good choice.
But we are not all like that. Tough
times can also bring out the best in many people and businesses. We
have those who are converting their Little Free Libraries to Little
Free Pantries, stocking them with food for whoever needs it. We have restaurants in downtown Minneapolis that are donating food
they can't use to anyone who can. We have
the volunteers who are reaching out via the internet to senior
citizens who are shut in. We have people working on making their
own ventilators, not waiting for supplies from outside. And we have some very intelligent scientists from various nations and states working on drugs that may help.
This restaurant in St. Paul is providing free meals and hope to those who are now unemployed.
This crisis will pass. We will
survive.
How do you want to remember your behavior during it?
109 comments:
I remember back to the 2008 financial crisis. The Republicans in Congress fought hard for their God-given freedom to watch from the sidelines as the country fell back into a Second Great Depression. Nevertheless, Dubya wasn't wholly in favor of that (Dubya is high on the list of disappointments amongst the Republican faithful, but I digress…) With Democratic support he nevertheless managed to pass a $700 billion dollar bank bailout/stimulus bill, only half of which he managed to spend before Obama was sworn in as President. That was the end of bi-partisan funding for economic stimulus/recovery spending. Obama did manage to steer $80 billion of the Bush money towards a bailout of the American auto industry, but the second wave of corporate bailout money passed on a pure party line vote--EVERY Republican voted against it. And the third wave, which was gonna be directed to bailing out small businesses and citizens never got off the ground. By that time the Republicans were screaming about deficits again.
Just yesterday the Senate Republicans tried to pass a third wave of stimulus spending aimed at socializing the losses recently sustained by corporate America. The Senate Democrats balked on them.
Based on past history, I'd hazard a guess that was probably a good move. It's been a Republican strategy since the days of Ronald Reagan to spend all the money available on their own donor base and leave no money available for financial assistance to poor or middle-class citizenry (not their donor base). Looks to me like they were probably trying to pull that one off again.
I kicked back this morning and spent a few hours reading essays by various writers who're deprecating the covid-19 epidemic for one reason or another (the most cited motive is economic). There appears to be one common thread to all the essays, no matter what reason they give for their efforts to convince us to resume our normal lives and "laugh in the face of danger", gather as a herd and party on in defiance of the disease.
There is a common thread of anger, animosity, one might even call it hatred, of those they consider "the elite" who're urging game changing efforts to contain the spread of the virus. In fact, that animosity is the second most common reason given to defy the quarantine orders and "shelter-in-place" edicts and just party on, second behind the economic damage. And even those who claim to be primarily worried about keeping the stock market humming and containing the shocks to the underlying economy are using this animosity as a backup reason to party on. Anger at "the elites" seems to be the unifying thread for those who're urging us to plow on as normal despite the risks of the covid-19 epidemic.
I wish I were more surprised.
There are also those dedicated Trump acolytes who believe this is being done in some kind of effort to besmirch Donald Trump. Apparently they don't even...oh geez he's talking about the flu again. *sigh* And he's back at the we are doing so much better than other country's thing. Oh, sorry, I have the news on and Trump is speaking.
There are just people out there who only see what they want to see.
It appears that both China and Hong Kong have been experiencing some re-infection due mainly to travelers coming back into the country.
Deborah Birx, I like her.
"…oh geez he's talking about the flu again."
He's eager to begin the first round of a rebounded infection rate. He's already been hinting at trying to figure out some way to override state "shelter-in-place" and quarantine orders.
It seems to me that Trump has decided that he is going to become the champion of the masses who're being oppressed by the coronavirus hoax. He hasn't figured out how he's going to do that just yet, but he's startin' to work it.
He seems to be trying different tacks, trying to find what imaginaries take off in popularity and what lines he has to drop for lack of popularity. (He's using his now almost daily press conferences for this sorting effort, now that his traveling road shows have been canceled. I think the networks would be doing the nation a favor if they quit covering those pressers live; I notice some already have quit. Yesterday's press conference wasn't covered live by any of the big three networks so far as I know.)
He's already been hinting at trying to figure out some way to override state "shelter-in-place" and quarantine orders.
He's already talking about easing America back to work again, maybe by Easter. My guess is he saw the impact the closures were having on his properties.
I don't know what is the right answer. Sometimes I think the cure is worse than the disease. And what happens if we shutdown for months, reopen, and the virus just flares up again? Although I suppose the argument would be that if we shutdown everything that gives us some time to find a vaccine or cure before the medical system is overwhelmed.
Frankly I don't envy anyone the job of President.
Hmmm... I see that middle video disappeared. Well, they didn't leave that up for very long.
"Sometimes I think the cure is worse than the disease."
I suppose not everyone has the same interests here.
The .1% who make up the Republican donor base do not generally work among the public. They don't work at Walmart, or drive for Federal Express, or fly airplanes for American Airlines. Maybe they own stock in all three. Their stock is taking a beating ('cept Walmart's doin' okay).
Re-opening their businesses soon will probably put us back on the path the British computer study figured on, the path which costs the United States 2.2 million dead. But, the .1% don't figure to be too heavily represented among those dead millions.
Of course there will be losses among their employees and customers, but, as God has told us: The poor will be with us always. They breed back; they're a self-sustaining asset. The .1% can shrug off 2.2 million dead workers and customers--they're replaceable.
But, as the Saudi price war with Russia has recently taught us, lost business, especially lost market share, might be lost forever.
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I had a long scheduled routine checkup at my doctor's office yesterday. (I decided to get it over with before things got any worse locally.) To put the matter bluntly, they were freakin' out.
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Yesterday's exuberance in the stock markets probably did not take into account that the House of Representatives has gone ahead and passed their own bailout/recovery bill while the Senate was dickin' 'round trying to pass one.
Now they're gonna havta decide whether or not the House is gonna take up the Senate bill, as written, or insist on consideration of the House version of how to save the country. I don't know that the stock market had priced that into yesterday's exuberance.
Lee C.,
Were they wearing masks at the doctor's office?
Jeffrey / Ningbo, China
*
They were wearing masks; first thing they did was hand me a mask. I decided that was a hint, so I put it on. (I had a mask on my front seat that I hadn't worn in on account of I expected I was the first appointment of the morning--which did seem to be the case.) I kinda thought they were overdoing it considering that the county had reported only 10 cases of the virus and only one death (on Sunday). But, we had two more covid-19 deaths yesterday afternoon, and the county has this morning issued a 30 day county-wide "stay-at-home" order effective starting today, well, midnight tonight.
Lee C.,
Ah, I see. You guys are just starting the self-quarantine.
You said you live in a rural state, right? Is your county also rural or urban? That would help me interpret the 3 deaths to the Wuhan Virus.
Jeffrey / Ningbo, China
*
"Is your county also rural or urban?"
Mixed, contains a small city of 160,000 or so--last time I looked (haven't bothered to look in quite a while now)--which is the biggest concentration of people for hundreds of miles any direction.
All three of the dead were from the urban environment; residents of an old folks home; youngest was in her 70s.
We are not shutdown totally yet. I guess you could say we are in pause. The Walmarts are still open along with the grocery stores and Costcos. The restaurants and bars are shut to indoor patrons, as I mentioned before. The drive through take outs are still open, as is curbside pickup. Banks are still open to drive through customers.
No one is wearing masks when out in the general public unless they are sick and have to be out. Those who are sick, with anything, are instructed to self quarantine. Unfortunately, we have had some cases pop up in long term care facilities.
We are creating temporary hospitals out of larger structures that are unused, such as a prison. Our businesses have increased production of masks and ventilators.
We have limited testing so the total number of cases will not be a true picture.
As of March 24th:
287- cases
88 - recovered
26 - In hospital
1 - death
111 - In Hennepin Co. alone, which is a highly populated urban area.
Our Governor has ordered that evictions cannot be carried out for failure to pay rent during the pause/shutdown.
Jeffrey,
Have you been seeing any recurrence in China in the areas that have re-opened? I know they have new cases from travelers who are returning to China from abroad, but is there any local re-infection?
"We have limited testing…."
We have severely limited testing. They're being blunt about the reason why--no testing supplies. The local protocol is to test for influenza; if it turns out not to be the flu they presume it to be covid-19 and treat for that.
The only covid-19 testing that gets done is if the patient worsens significantly and they decide to try to prove it's not coronavirus so's to encourage the search for whatever else might be killing the patient. (This assumes the patient hasn't died in the meantime.)
"They're being blunt about the reason why--no testing
supplies."
That, by the way, explains the staff at the doctor's office being freaked out (doctor as well), and why the county issued a 30 day "stay-at-home" order with only ten reported cases.
We're treating an unspecified number of local people for the covid-19 virus, but they're not being turned in officially as having the disease on account of there being no testing to confirm it. (This is dedicated Trumpkin territory, so if that also helps Trump keep the count down just now, most locals won't make a public stink about it.)
The staff at the doctor's office already knew about that.
California, New York, and Washington state have all been declared disaster areas authorizing the release of additional federal unemployment assistance, which assistance the Trump administration has refused to actually release. To be clear, the Trump administration approved the disaster status, but refused to sign off on actually sending the money. All three states are, of course, Democratic strongholds which will almost certainly not vote for Trump in the 2020 election.
However, as of Monday, Texas has also requested the same disaster declaration and made claim to the same relief, so folks are speculating that the administration may now release the unemployment funding in fairly short order.
Headline, Axios: "G7 statement scrapped after U.S. insisted coronavirus be called 'Wuhan virus'"
As I mentioned before, it's important to them for some reason. This time they pushed it hard enough to offend our allies and make it impossible for them to agree to a joint G7 closing statement, as is the custom.
Of course, it's possible that offending our allies was the point of the exercise, but they probably had a different reason for being intentionally obnoxious. The Trump administration almost always sees things through the lens of what's good for Trump. So, they must think this is somehow good for Trump.
It is customary for the American electorate to "rally 'round the flag" so to speak, and for there to be a resultant surge in the polled job approval rating during a crisis, for whomever is holding the office of President. It has been no different for Trump during this emergency. His favorable ratings have surged and his unfavorable ratings have cratered. average
While I know this is consistent with all historical precedent, I'm still somewhat surprised by this turn of events. (I find very little shocking in the post-Trump age of America, but this comes close.)
Trump has moved his near-daily press conferences up to earlier in the day, today's Trump Show will begin at 5:00 EDT (4:00 Central). I think he's trying to recapture a live feed on the major networks, which have recently begun to stick with their regularly scheduled programming.
He can't do the Trump Road Shows anymore, and now he's losing his television audience. This lack of "outlet" for his personal needs seems to be troubling him, personally.
Nevertheless, he's benefiting, at least for now, from the traditional surge in support for a President that accompanies a national crisis.
While I know this is consistent with all historical precedent, I'm still somewhat surprised by this turn of events.
I am too for some reason. There things he could have done even before this crisis, like not dismantling what Obama has set up during the Ebola scare. That's not even to mention his ill-informed briefings.
Over 1,000 dead now. It happened so quickly.
"I am too for some reason."
I got your reason.
The United States reported its first case of covid-19 on 19 January 2020.
South Korea reported its first case of covid-19 on 20 January 2020.
The rate of infection in South Korea is going down, in spite of the South Koreans having the bad luck of enduring a flood of covid-19 cases among a secretive religious cult which hid the outbreak among its members. We're just gettin' started here. coronavirusMap
And Trump is neverthelss basking in the traditional surge in popularity that accompanies a national crisis in America.
"…he's trying to recapture a live feed on the major networks…"
Didn't work.
Lynnette,
Have you been seeing any recurrence in China in the areas that have re-opened? I know they have new cases from travelers who are returning to China from abroad, but is there any local re-infection?
I just can't trust any of the numbers right now. As I said somewhere above, once areas went to zero confirmed cases there is now too much to lose by authorities to announce even one new case.
And of course right now the big news is tha CCP has banned ALL foreigners, not just people arriving from the US, but ALL foreigners, and that also means anyone with a valid resident permit. I know teachers and students who are now locked out of China. They can't return to their jobs and schools.
Maybe you and Lee C. can take a look at the statistics, but I believe the infections from incoming people has been around 80% from returning Chinese (Han Chinese) and only 20% from foreigners. So banning all foreigners is just a way for the CCP to placate the always simmering anti-foreigner sentiment among Chinese.
Very few foreigners ever acquire Chinese citizenship, even if you marry a Chinese person.
From my experience of living in half a dozen countries on several continents, you would be hard pressed to find a more racist group of people than the Han Chinese. They really believe they are better than anyone else. Don't be fooled.
Jeffrey / Ningbo, China
*
"Nearly all of the 33 states with legal medical or recreational markets
have classified marijuana businesses as an essential service, allowing
them to remain open even as vast swaths of the retail economy are
shuttered. San Francisco and Denver initially announced plans to
shut down dispensaries, but immediately backpedaled after a public
furor."
Politico
On the other hand, in dedicated Trumpkin territory, where I reside, there's no pot for sale legally, but gun shops are considered sacrosanct and are exempted by state law from the county-wide business shutdown and "stay-at-home" order.
And I'm given to understand they're doin' a hell of a lot business these days.
The point was brought home to me that Trump's "Presidential Surge", his jump in approval ratings acquired from being the President during a crisis is much lower than the equivalent surge of his peers. Macron, in France, has jumped up above 50% for the first time. Conte, the Prime Minister of Italy, is up over 75%. Dubya was up over 90% in the aftermath of 9/11.
The U.S. Border Patrol is sitting on a stash of 1.5 million N95 masks in a warehouse in Indiana that they had no intention of letting people know about. (The masks are technically "expired", although, probably still usable. It seems that their elastic straps can lose elasticity over time (a problem I've noticed with my own masks) but these have been stored in a fairly stable environment (temperature and humidity) and are said to in relatively good shape and usable). WashingtonPost
Lee C.,
I see a theme in your last three posts: creating and then sitting on a "stash," whether it be masks, guns, or marijuana.
As a child of the 1960s and 70s, "stash" was used for a baggie of, say, Colombian bud.
A. Where's your stash?
B. That depends.
Jeffrey / Ningbo, China
*
Columbian bud?
For those not "a child of the 1960s and 70s", but who come 'round later in time, a "stash" is just a secret (or hidden) cache.
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I'm beginning to wonder what happens when Trump discovers that he's not got the authority to order America to "re-open" for business on Tuesday?
Could be he already knows and is just setting up his preferred image for the reëlection campaign.
And Trump is neverthelss basking in the traditional surge in popularity that accompanies a national crisis in America.
Yes, indeed. He is making hay while the sun dims. Now he is floating the idea that all of the relief checks should have his signature on them. As if he is the only one to take credit for that. He is the ultimate con man and people just fall for it hook, line and sinker.
So banning all foreigners is just a way for the CCP to placate the always simmering anti-foreigner sentiment among Chinese.
Trump tried something similar with his anti-immigrant rants and banning travel from countries in the beginning of his term. He ran afoul of the courts on some of those. But with his, and Mitch McConnell's, stacking of the Supreme and some lower courts with conservative justices he is trying to set some of those policies in stone.
As I said somewhere above, once areas went to zero confirmed cases there is now too much to lose by authorities to announce even one new case.
Okay, got it.
They really believe they are better than anyone else. Don't be fooled.
Other people have felt the same in the past and that didn't bode well for peace on earth, good will toward man.
All in all a bad time to have someone like Trump as President.
On the other hand, in dedicated Trumpkin territory, where I reside, there's no pot for sale legally, but gun shops are considered sacrosanct and are exempted by state law from the county-wide business shutdown and "stay-at-home" order.
I've heard about the record gun sales. It goes along with toilet paper panic. People are assuming that we will fall into chaos and anarchy and they will have to defend themselves. I sincerely hope we are better than that.
Dubya was up over 90% in the aftermath of 9/11.
Yes, I saw that. There are still people out there who understand that perhaps we could have been better prepared for this, and in fact were, before Trump took office. He doesn't have the numbers that George Bush did. And, weird as it may seem, I really preferred listening to Dubya over Trump.
The streets are eerily quiet here. But I will have to venture out and pick up some groceries for myself and some other people.
I myself paid a visit to my favorite restaurant this afrernoon. Happens to be a Chinese one. If there was ever a situation they need my business it’s now. So I delibetly racked up a $120 order and asked for a gift certificate for another $100 to be put on my tab for later use when 5hey hopefully get back on their feet.
Marcus
And I do have to say our government has handled this crisis very well from an economic standpoint. The current ruling coalition is splintered but the Social Democrats more or less told their more ideological coalition partners to just step aside, sit in a corner and shut the fuck up.
And we very rapidly got actions passed.
An employer can instead if laying off staff put them on “short work” meaning theiir hours are cut by half but the state pays for half of that pay cut. The employee takes a hit, the business takes a hit by keeping non productive staff and the state takes a hit too. The alternative is bad for all.
Businesses like bars and restaurants can negotiate w their landlord for temporary cuts to their rent, and if so the state will pay 50% of that cut. So in fact a landlord could reduce the rent to zero for a business and still get paid half of the original rent.
Taxes can be postponed for all businesses.
Mortagge payments for businesses can be postponed for 3 months to create liquidity for solid businesses that are hit hard by this unforeseen event.
And some other stuff, but all in all thumbs up for my governments response here.
Marcus
"The streets are eerily quiet here."
You got me curious. I decided to fill my grocery list instead of waiting for it to need filling. Roads and streets are quiet for a Saturday, but busier than I'd expected considering we're supposed to be on lockdown. Figure it compared to a quiet Sunday morning, church-time, instead of a Saturday. Then the weather cleared up (it rained this morning--and the roads got noticeably busier, busy Sunday afternoon level of traffic)
Considerably more traffic than I'd expected. But maybe the locals are listening to Trump.
Gasoline at $1.49⁹/gallon.
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"…thumbs up for my governments response here."
They do seem to be sensible about things. Although, they don't have to prop up a stock market and an international currency exchange rate, which takes some of the heat off them. Also, I'd been reading about the Swedish response as compared to Denmark and Norway, and they mentioned that Sweden has so far been hit lightly by the virus compared to both of those and to the rest of Europe.
No have hit about the same. But Sweden has put far less rules on people, is keeping kindergartens open and is telling low risk people to just go about their business. Seems to work so far. If the populace behave sanely you don’t need draconian measures.
Marcus
I myself paid a visit to my favorite restaurant this afrernoon.
Before they shut their doors to inside visitors I made a trip to my favorite bookstore. :) I know my little contribution will not keep them in business but it made me feel better that I tried.
I have also still been frequenting drive through's at various restaurants while I'm at work. These businesses employee many people who are living paycheck to paycheck and while I can't help all I will help some.
Figure it compared to a quiet Sunday morning, church-time, instead of a Saturday. Then the weather cleared up (it rained this morning--and the roads got noticeably busier, busy Sunday afternoon level of traffic)
Yes, that was my take on it too. But I did notice the stores that are open are being diligent about cleaning shelves and products as well as making sure people stay at least 6 feet away from each other. They have marked the floor to let people know the proper distance. I did notice a few people wearing masks, real or makeshift ones.
Things are still flying off shelves, no eggs or toilet paper at one store, but plenty at another. You kind of have to be in the right place at the right time. I buy the necessities as I see them, either for me or others. For the most part people are good at limiting themselves to one pack of something. I've only seen a couple people lately with multiple packs of toilet paper, for example.
And some other stuff, but all in all thumbs up for my governments response here.
It does sound like they are handling it well. Kudos to them. Our government, not so much. Although, I will say that so far my state government and local businesses have seemed to rise to the challenge.
But, honestly, I still think this has been around for longer than people realize. There are probably people out there who have had it and have possibly developed some immunity to it.
We are simply trying to give our medical community time to prepare for the more serious cases by social distancing. So far 441 confirmed cases and 5 deaths. Some of those infected have already recovered. We have limited testing due to a shortage of supplies, which means it is the most serious cases that get the test. At least 4 of the deaths were in care facilities.
"Norway, population 5.3 million, had more than 3,770
coronavirus cases… ≈ .000711
"Denmark, population 5.6 million, reported 2,200 cases…
≈ .000393
"Sweden, with 10.12 million people, recorded more than
3,060 cases…≈ .000302"
NewYorkTimes
"Biden leads Trump in new polls despite coronavirus approval
bounce.
"Three new polls conducted over the past week show a lag between
Trump's approval rating and his vote share against the top
Democratic candidate."
Politico
Nate Silver agrees.
"Trump currently trails Biden in most general election polls by a wide
enough margin that the Electoral College probably wouldn’t save
him. So if higher partisanship means the outcome is more “locked in”
and less likely to change, that isn’t great news for Trump."
538 blog
RIP
Joe Diffie
"Trump currently trails Biden in most general election polls by a wide enough margin that the Electoral College probably wouldn’t save him.
I certainly hope so!
It has occurred to me that Biden now has a clear comeback for Trump's upcoming election argument that the recession is not his fault. That's when Biden points out that the good economy wasn't Trump's doing either--Trump's economic gains, the bull-market rising graph-line up during his first three years, was inherited by Trump from the Obama administration; damn near a straight line. (Biden will be careful to notice his own contributions and to call it the Obama/Biden economy.) Suddenly that's a much clearer argument when Trump's trying to deny responsibility for the crash.
Mark Meadows makes his start today as the President's newest Chief of Staff (Trump's fourth).
Meadows was a charter member of the Republican-leaning "Tea Party" movement, first came to Congress in the 2012 mid-term election, and was past chairman of the semi-infamous "Freedom Caucus" of Republican House members.
So we have an historically anti-government politician taking the chief supporting role along with Trump as they now try to run the government they've only recently pledged to destroy instead.
Gotta wonder how that's gonna work out for us.
Just in case anybody's been wondering why Trump insists on making patently untrue claims in his daily White House campaign appearances (and also insists on having his minions come to the microphone to slather praises upon him), it's because those shows are carried daily on FoxNews as if they're completely credible. They don't bother to point out that he's telling whopping lies.
So, the dedicated Trumpkins are treated to an almost daily show of Trump claiming great things, and of apparently credible and important people showering Trump with praise for wholly imaginary greatnesses. Works for Trump; keeps the dedicated Trumpkins in line.
Andrew Cuomo's brother Chris, who anchors for CNN, has tested positive for Covid-19.
Why is it always the good people?
I don't watch CNN; it's a cable channel; don't get cable. So, I'm gonna return to the politics of the epidemic….
It's apparent that Trump's trying to pawn off responsibility for handling the epidemic on the states. So far that's kinda worked for him. (Mostly on account of he's got what amounts to a state propaganda channel (FoxNews) daily proclaiming on the greatnesses of Trump for his dedicated Trumpkins.) However, the states where the epidemic has hit first are pretty much all "blue" states, Democratic strongholds. That means the epidemic is still coming to red states, Republican strongholds, many of which are following Trump's lead and not declaring emergency quarantine measures.
So, the shit's gonna hit the fan later in the red states, but it's almost certainly gonna hit.
What Trump's strategy will then be is still up for grabs, but it's gonna be just that much closer to the November elections when this disease starts running hard through Trump county.
From his last briefing it looks like he is trying to prepare everyone for a serious, very unpleasant, road ahead.
"…it looks like he is trying to prepare everyone…"
He keeps his ear to the ground for any indications of erosion of support amongst his dedicated Trumpkins. Perhaps he heard the preliminary rumblings of just such an erosion of support. (Politico claims to have picked up on it as well.)
"The government’s emergency stockpile of respirator masks, gloves
and other medical supplies is running low and is nearly exhausted
due to the coronavirus outbreak, leaving the Trump administration
and the states to compete for personal protective equipment in a
freewheeling global marketplace rife with profiteering and price-
gouging, according to Department of Homeland Security officials
involved in the frantic acquisition effort."
WashingtonPost
Trump's job approval rating amongst self-identified Republicans is holding steady at 92%. Gallup
I would think that as the number of cases, and deaths, in the United States rise Trump's approval ratings will fall. At least among those who really look at his handling of this situation.
As of March 24th:
287- cases
88 - recovered
26 - In hospital
1 - death
As of April 1:
689 - cases
342 - recovered
54 - in hospital (27 in ICU)
17 - deaths
"I would think that…"
Perhaps I'm being too cynical (and then again, maybe not). But, I think the only thing that will cause the dedicated Trumpkins to abandon Trump is him losing the election and bringing down the Republican Senate along with him. Recent American history indicates they'll probably tolerate everything except losing. That they won't tolerate. In the end he'll hold that 38-40% against all challenges, right to the end. But they'll not tolerate him losing the election and costing them the Senate as well. That will be the end for them; nothing less.
"Health experts say they now believe nearly one in three patients
who are infected [with covid-19] are nevertheless getting a negative
test result."
WallStreetJournal (via MSN)
This appears to be the result of a lowering of standards to get new testing on market after the Trump administration refused the WHO testing procedures and then the CDC botched its first efforts to make an "America First" coronavirus test.
I think the only thing that will cause the dedicated Trumpkins to abandon Trump...
Well, there is one other thing. But as much as I dislike their politics I don't with for their death. There are some out there who seem to still think this is all a hoax or a minor illness. That may eventually come back to haunt them.
This appears to be the result of a lowering of standards...
That could well be what Trump becomes known for, "lowering standards". He seems to be good at that.
Now it seems that the "experts" are saying that maybe masks might not be a bad idea after all. Kind of like closing the barn door after the horse has escaped if you ask me.
"Now it seems that the 'experts' are saying that maybe masks
might not be a bad idea after all."
I've been wearing masks when I'm out in public since the morning I went to the doctor's office and noticed they were freaked out (24th of March).
"Well, there is one other thing."
Certainly the dead ones will not continue supporting him, but the surviving Trumpkins will nevertheless hold fast.
With spring coming on and the golf courses greening up, the Trump administration is now soliciting immigration applications from laborers claiming expertise as landscape workers (among other select groups of potential cheap labor). Politico Gotta keep those fairways in shape at Mar-a-Lago.
I've been wearing masks...
One of my coworkers made some homemade masks and left them for us at work. Of course, I was in a hurry to leave tonight and forgot mine. But I do have a few regular medical type masks left from my Mother. I gave most of them away but kept a couple just in case I got sick.
I might have to adopt the look. So far I've only seen a few people around here wearing them.
Hmmm...apparently at least 14 states have exempted religious gatherings from the shelter in place or no large gatherings rule. I guess we'll see how well that works out for them.
Here the stores that are considered essential, groceries, Target, Walmart & Costco are going to limit the number of people that can be inside their stores at the same time. They also have been diligent about marking every 6 feet on the floor so everyone in line will know exactly where to stand.
I don't know why a religious gathering would be any safer.
"But I do have a few regular medical type masks left from
my Mother."
A few might be adequate. They say the virus can live only about 24 hours on porous surfaces (cardboard is the usual example cited). So, if you set 'em up on the window sill and leave them there for a day or so time and a little UV light will kill the virus without damaging the mask and you can use it again.
"I don't know why a religious gathering would be any safer."
"Safer" is not why they're lettin' those slide.
Gettin' it done while everybody's lookin' the other way.
"President Donald Trump has fired the intelligence
community’s chief watchdog, Michael Atkinson, who was the
first to sound the alarm to Congress last September about an
“urgent” complaint he’d received from an intelligence official
involving Trump’s communications with Ukraine.
"Trump formally notified the Senate Intelligence Committee of
his intention to fire Atkinson and remove him from his duties,
to take effect 30 days from [today]"
Politico
"Safer" is not why they're lettin' those slide.
Nope. But if many of those "gathering" end up with Covid-19 they may find their "generosity" backfiring.
Trump is saying he will not wear a mask. That's good enough for me. I wore one today to Target and the grocery store.
The CDC has approved testing for antibodies to the covid-19 virus. Some testing is already underway. So, if there's anything to the theory that the virus has been in the states longer than the late January appearance that the government acknowledges, we should be able to identify that, for now theoretical, earlier invasion before too long.
I would very much like to take that test and see if the crud I had at the end of January into the first week of February was Covid-19. We'll see how soon I can do that.
Jeffrey was wanting to know if we had heard any numbers on the Chinese deaths from Covid-19 as he was questioning the official tally.
There was an article in The Washington Post recently also questioning the official Chinese numbers.
The Hankou Funeral Home’s crematorium was operating 19 hours a day, with male staffers enlisted to help carry bodies. In just two days, the home received 5,000 urns, the respected magazine Caixin reported.
Using photos posted online, social media sleuths have estimated that Wuhan funeral homes have returned 3,500 urns a day since March 23. That would imply a death toll in Wuhan of about 42,000 — or 16 times the official number. Another widely shared calculation from Radio Free Asia, based on Wuhan’s 84 furnaces running nonstop and each cremation taking an hour, put the death toll at 46,800.
National and state-by-state projections for the progress of the covid-19 pandemic here
Probably ought to start here, and then go to the other page.
Hmmm...looks like we've got about 16 days until peak. Although that analysis said we have not closed non-essential services, and that is not the case. We have done that.
But the 932 total death figure is what they have been saying here.
"Although that analysis said we have not closed non-essential
services, and that is not the case. We have done that."
I think it probably boils down to the State of Minnesota and the folks who drew up the IHME projections not seeing eye-to-eye on what constitutes an "essential" service. For just one example, Minnesota allows liquor stores to remain open.
(If you'll click on the little icon for "government mandated social distancing" just above the "essential services" notation, you'll discover that the IHME folks are a bit rigid with their definitions. And, "Minnesota’s definition of essential industries is more expansive than the federal one." MinnesotaPost)
I think the reasoning behind leaving the liquor stores open is due to the consequences for some people who suddenly stop their alcohol consumption. Withdrawal for an alcoholic can land them in the hospital and we don't want to fill up the hospital space if we can help it.
Prediction that Florida, which went under a stay-at-home order less than a week ago will soon discover that they waited too long. These folks are predicting that the rate of covid-19 will soar in Florida in the coming two weeks.
Meanwhile, Trump has been busy removing the watchdog who was overseeing the coronavirus emergency funds. How much do I think Trump is slimy...let me count the ways...
I was just about to post on that. Link to Politico.
Looks to me like maybe Trump's decided that this is the time to make his power grab for real. We could be approaching perilous times. He may still be considering an attempt to cancel the 2020 election. I thought he'd given up on that notion, but maybe not.
I ran across an interesting tidbit today. It seems no successful vaccine for any coronavirus has ever been developed. The covid-19 virus is of the same family that includes the "common cold" which has famously refused to be conquered by any vaccine. SARS, MERS, all of them, no one has ever developed a working vaccine for any coronavirus. NewYorkMagazine
Looks to me like maybe Trump's decided that this is the time to make his power grab for real. We could be approaching perilous times. He may still be considering an attempt to cancel the 2020 election.
I am starting to think the same thing. His actions over the past few days have seemed more alarming to our democracy. As my neighbor said just this evening, we need to get rid of him.
"I am starting to think the same thing."
And then again, maybe he's just jonesin', suffering from withdrawal. He's not getting his fix, no roars from the crowds of dedicated Trumpkins at his traveling road shows.
So he's getting more and more erratic, subconsciously looking for a crowd response that just won't come, and so he keeps getting weirder and weirder, pushing for the response, pushing for the cheers that just ain't there.
Hard to know which it is.
Dangerous either way.
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And, in what may be a further pressure on Trump… I've been reading essays by corporate Republicans who're way eager for the country to re-open for business. They're working their way up to demanding that Trump either end the pandemic by Trumpish Decree, or that he open the country for business anyway and let the workers just die off until they quit dying (not a real problem--the poor will be with us always--they'll breed back--they always do--they're a self replicating asset).
So far Trump's not ready to play to those preferences, but he's hearing the rumbling as it builds. And he's trying to figure out what to do 'bout it.
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There's no doubt but that Trump has managed to turn his daily press conferences/campaign appearances into somewhat successful Trump Shows. He's dominating the cable TV channels and scoring points with the dedicated Trumpkins and even with a few of the few remaining independent voters. It's been good for him. Not as good as his old road shows--he doesn't get the same psychic uplift from the roaring crowds; he still seems to miss that. But it's propped his numbers up a little bit.
Trouble is, it's only a show, and it's already getting stale. There are already hints that he's wearing out his welcome on the TVs of those who are not dedicated Trumpkins. TheAtlantic (very short by Atlantic standards--easily readable)
10 best songs of John Prine (as per the L.A.Times
There are already hints that he's wearing out his welcome on the TVs of those who are not dedicated Trumpkins.
I haven't listened to him from day one. I will listen to Drs Fauci or Birx. Both are intelligent people doing their best in a bad situation. I have also listened to Andrew Cuomo.
No, Trump isn't my knowledge purveyor of choice.
I see Bernie finally dropped out. That was kind of expected though, I think.
I only hope that by November we will be at a place that allows for large turnouts on Election Day.
I'll have to listen to the John Prine songs tonight. Thanks.
WashingtonPost: It's unlikely that the covid-19 will prove to be a "seasonal" virus like the flu. We're probably not going to get a break as the weather warms up.
Early statistical "indications", what we might call preliminary conclusions from the polling data available, seem to show that Trump is blowing his "rally-round-the-flag" advantage by consistently being Trump in front of too many people. (Some folks do watch his daily campaign pressers). Politico
Conservative media (in this instance TheHill) are beginning to lay the groundwork for politicizing the "re-opening" of America for business. This particular floater is suggesting that Trump will "re-open" the country by the 1st of May (glossing lightly over the fact that Trump doesn't have that authority--he's barely used the available federal powers to control the pandemic, leaving it to the various state governors to issue the necessary orders (or not)).
I think they're taking a risk here. The disease first hit in blue states (Democratic strongholds) but while those states are starting to get the infections under control (in some blue states anyway), it's looking like the disease is progressing into the more rural red states now.
This could mean that Trump will be pressing for a return to normal operations just as his constituency is getting hit hardest by the disease. That may turn out to be bad timing. But, patience doesn't appear to be his long suit; he's most always interested in winning the PR war today. It's just an endless string of todays with him; not too much planning for the future.
Our Governor has extended our shelter in place order until May 4.
As of today our totals stand at:
Cases: 1,242
Recovered: 675
Hospitalized: 145
In ICU: 63
Deaths: 50
This could mean that Trump will be pressing for a return to normal operations just as his constituency is getting hit hardest by the disease.
Yes. Although I'm not sure that even that will shake their support. I was driving behind someone today who had various signs plastered to the back of his truck, "Trump/Pence 2020" and "Buy American, Hire American". Unless they actually have someone who dies from this, they may just shrug it off.
"Buy American, Hire American"
Seems a bit incongruous, considering Trump's preference for hiring immigrants where possible.
"…they may just shrug it off."
All too likely many of them will shrug it off, even if they lose someone to the virus (whether that's enough to flip them might depend on the Trumpkin involved, whom they lose, and how many)
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However, as I watch the preliminary moves Trump's making to try to "re-open" I begin to suspect that what he's really doing is trying to set himself up as the public advocate for an early return to normal.
I'm not so sure he wants it to actually happen. Perhaps he mostly wants the dedicated Trumpkins to think he's trying to make it happen (only to be thwarted by the Evil Democrats and Establishment Republicans). This would keep the fantasy alive, and the fantasy is all the dedicated Trumpkins require.
And then again, maybe he thinks he can actually pull this off; maybe he thinks he can force the governors to withdraw their public health orders and then bullshit the dedicated Trumpkins into overlooking an epidemic raging all around them.
And maybe he's right.
This morning's data shows that Sweden has had "9,141 recorded cases of the Covid-19 virus and 793 deaths."
The United States has had 16,200 deaths.
Adjusting for population size (Sweden has 10.25 million people to America's 325 million people)
10.25 ÷ 325 = 0.0315384615384615
16,200 × 0.0315384615384615 ≈ 511
So, a comparable death rate, that is, a per head comparison would have Sweden with 511 coronavirus deaths equivalent to our 16,200 dead.
But, Sweden's doing significantly worse than that, 793 dead so far. Of course, it's early yet. It'll be awhile before we know how it all works out.
NewYorkTimes interactive map says Sweden now has 7.8 deaths per 100,000 people and Norway, just to the west, has only 2 deaths per 100,000 people.
It may be that the jury's already coming back in on the Swedish experiment.
This morning's data shows that Sweden has had "9,141 recorded cases of the Covid-19 virus and 793 deaths."
Sweden has 10.25 million people...
Or maybe we could look at just a small slice of America in comparison with Sweden, given our heritage is from that region. Minnesota has a population of roughly 5.7 million, slightly over half of Sweden's. The number of cases we have is 1,336. Now, granted we have not been doing a lot of testing. So I will compare another more important figure. Sweden's deaths: 793, Minnesota's: 57.
Having said that, it may simply be because we are on a different place in the curve than is Sweden. They may be further along.
In all of this one thing that gives me faith in America is the ingenuity of American companies.
That video is old, they have increased their production since.
Current figures for America overall are 492,962 reported cases and 18,466 dead. 18,466 ÷ 492,962 ≈ 0.03746
For Sweden those numbers are 9,685 and 870. 870 ÷ 9,685 ≈ 0.08983 (from NewYorkTimes interactive)
I rather doubt that the virus is over twice as lethal in Sweden as it is in Minnesota, so I'm guessing the difference there means that the Swedes are actually doing even less testing than the Minnesotans.
For now, I'm stickin' with the theory that their laid-back response to the virus is behind the differences.
Post Script: For Minnesota the ratio works out to ~ 0.04267; still considerably less than the ~ 0.08983 for Sweden.
Off topic: Trump has today pledged to cut American oil production by 250,000 barrels per day in order to induce a settlement between Russia and Saudi Arabia of the current price war they're waging against one another. They (the Saudi and the Russians) decided that the way to settle their price war was to get the Mexicans to cut their production by 400,000 bpd, so that the Russians and the Saudi could split that share of Mexico's market between themselves.
However, the Mexicans disagreed with this solution. (Apparently the Mexicans were of the opinion that the Russians and the Saudi ought to settle their dispute without foisting the damage off on Mexico.)
Now it seems that Trump has announced that the United States will cut our production by 250,000 bpd in order to induce the Mexicans to accept a cut of 100,000 bpd, and between the two that'll make up most of the 400,000 bpd that the Russians and Saudi had agreed they'd take over from Mexico. Trump's plan is that the Mexicans will pay us back for that someday, somehow--probably not with actual money but with … … sumpin'.
Nobody has yet explained how Trump intends to cut American production by 250,000 barrel per day, given that Trump doesn't have any control over American oil production. (We don't actually have a state-owned oil company for him to order around like that.)
But, he's made the pledge anyway.
Gonna be interesting to watch as this one flies apart--as it almost certainly will.
Gonna be interesting to watch as this one flies apart--as it almost certainly will.
lol!
For someone who is supposedly a capitalist and a supporter of free enterprise he doesn't seem to understand how it works.
"Giving people money to spend will help ease the current
economic disaster. Giving small businesses money to pay their
employees will also help ease the current economic disaster.
But experts believe there is only one way to end the current
economic disaster, and while the CARES Act didn’t fund it,
some Democrats are trying to make sure the next stimulus
does.
"The only way to revive the economy is to end the pandemic,
which will require a frantic industrial and bureaucratic
mobilization to ramp up coronavirus testing, tracing, tracking
and quarantining. The [current stimulus legislation] will pour
$180 billion into the medical system, which will help treat the
afflicted, but it didn’t finance the kind of all-out public health
campaign that nations like South Korea and Taiwan have used
to contain the virus and reopen their economies.
"University of Chicago economist Austan Goolsbee, who
served as President Obama’s top economic adviser, compared
the current approach to keeping warm by burning money
instead of fixing the furnace. He suggested that as long as
Democrats are helping Trump pour taxpayer dollars into a
locked-down economy, they ought to insist on financing an
effort to end the lockdown.
"“The first rule of virus economics is that you gotta stop the
virus before you can do anything about the economics,”
Goolsbee said. “If we’re spending trillions, I don’t understand
why we’re not throwing hundreds of billions at the things we
need to stop the spread.”
"More than 800 economists from both parties have signed a
letter urging Congress to focus on ending the pandemic, and
Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.) has crafted language to try to
accelerate a South Korea-style approach to public health
along with a World War II-style approach to manufacturing
tests, masks and other equipment. Democrats could insist on
attaching it to any coronavirus relief bill, and it’s not even
clear that Republicans would object. In an interview, Raskin
described the CARES Act approach as the economic
equivalent of a ventilator—absolutely necessary to keep the
patient alive, but totally inadequate to cure the disease.
"“Any dollar we spend today on defeating the virus will save
thousands of dollars in spending later,” Raskin said. “We’ll
never restore the economy until we stop the spread.”"
Politico
“We’ll
never restore the economy until we stop the spread.”"
Of course. That should be obvious. Even if we reopen people will still be cautious about whether or not it is safe to eat in a restaurant, go to a sporing event, gather in groups of more than one. Until we restore confidence that the virus is gone or can be treated we will still hesitate. And the longer we don't get back to "normal" the longer the economy will be on hold.
I think the tests showing whether or not someone has had the virus are critical to that. Because I suspect more people have had than we realize and determining that will help us get back on track.
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