It is Easter Sunday today. Normally we
would all be going to places of worship, getting together with family
or friends for a nice meal and just hanging out. But this year is a
little different. For much of the world is keeping their distance,
going out only when necessary. This is the year of the Covid-19
Pandemic.
Was this not foreseen? Of course it
was. It was foreseen by those who took the time to look.
History has seen this:
Those who forget history are doomed to
repeat it. There were preparations that could have been made, and
indeed were. Unfortunately, in the case of the United States a lot
of that was dismantled by Donald Trump.
Yes, we will get through this, but I
fear that the new normal will not look like the old.
How we choose to respond will make a
difference in each of our countries.
On this Easter I wish you all a safe
holiday!
115 comments:
Meanwhile The Federal Reserve chairman may prove more critical than the President.
In an apparent attempt to become as "critical" as the Federal Reserve Chairman, Trump today asserted that he has the power to "overrule" the governors and local authorities of the various states and declare their jurisdictions once again "open for business" over their objections. YahooNews.
(This may or may not be simply a feint for cover for a pending firing of Dr. Anthony Fauci which he threatened by re-tweet on Sunday)
I noticed that Trump has been claiming credit for settlement of the price war in the oil industry as hammered out between Russia and Saudi Arabia yesterday. The Russians and the Saudi have agreed between themselves to large cutbacks in oil production by the United States and Canada, and Mexico, none of whom are actually parties to the agreement.
The price of oil futures, which had been rising slightly on word of progress in the negotiations, promptly fell back to below $23 per barrel.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch… Trump is supposed to unveil his “Opening Our Country Council” today. It's supposed to include “great business leaders” and “great doctors” many of whom have reportedly been actively and energetically avoiding conscription into membership on the said Council up through yesterday.
Every day it gets harder and harder to put up with the incompetence of Donald Trump.
I can only hope that we have only 8 more months of his horrific governance. It will take much longer to fix his mistakes and deliberate sabotage, but at least getting rid of him would be a start.
I didn't watch today's Trump Show (actually, I didn't manage to sit through even the first one and I haven't tuned in since), but I did hit a couple of search engines later today and discovered nothing new on review for his pending "Opening Our Country Council/Task Force"--the last few words in name are apparently still up in the air as of the time of my search.
So, I'm guessing that means that Trump didn't go through with officially rolling out his new task force today.
Can't say I'm much surprised.
In his continuing effort to not only screw up the country but also the world Trump has decided to end funding for the World Health organization. Or put another way he needed to find a scapegoat for his own blundering incompetence and he has chosen to use the WHO.
"Trump has decided to end funding for the World Health
Organization."
There are reasonable arguments to be made for holding the WHO accountable for being credulous and naïve with regard to China's disclosures (and lack thereof) leading into this new pandemic. However, this is not the time to press for that accountability. The disease will come back to America if we allow it run rampant in third world countries. Accountability for the WHO can come later, any time later that we might choose. Don't need to do it now.
On the brighter side, I think this is an unforced political error as much as it is a clear policy error. I think it'll come back to haunt Trump in November. (I'd rather he not make the error in the first place, but my druthers ain't gonna make much difference there; and I do think it'll be seen as an error by those few "swing" voters he'll desperately need come November--call that a minor silver lining to this wrong call.)
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"National Economic Council Director Larry Kudlow said
Tuesday the president would likely make an announcement
later this week on when and how he intended to reopen the
economy"
Politico
I guess that means Trump's not waiting anymore on the still breathlessly anticipated "Opening Our Country Council/Task Force/whichever" that he didn't get 'round to unveiling today.
"Meanwhile, governors are making their own plans to
reopen the economy without the president’s input."
ibid
I'd rather he not make the error in the first place, but my druthers ain't gonna make much difference there; and I do think it'll be seen as an error by those few "swing" voters he'll desperately need come November--call that a minor silver lining to this wrong call.
I have to think the same thing about his insisting on his name being put on the stimulus checks, delaying their arrival to households who desperately need the money.
At least it made the front page of my newspaper so I would think it will be talked about and get back to even those who don't carry the paper.
Perhaps it was inevitable that the virus would not spare Russia.
They should perhaps look at what happened after Mardi Gras in New Orleans before they decide to continue on with their May 4th parade.
"I have to think the same thing about his insisting on his
name being put on the stimulus checks"
Most "swingable" voters won't care much about that. It'll strike them as petty--but anybody who's still on the fence already knows he's petty. That's not gonna grab their attention. (Might be the straw that broke the camel's back for a miniscule few of them.) The Democrats can do themselves more harm than good with that one if they rag on 'bout it too much. So, the trick is to mention it just enough that folks notice it as another example of Trump being petty, but not to wear it out. It should probably only be mentioned a second time only if one is, for some reason, ticking off a string of examples of Trump being Trump.
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While we're on the subject of Trumpian overreach, have you noticed that Trump's now claiming the power to appoint federal judges without Senate confirmation? Politico
That's more than just a little bit provocative.
And, if I read between the lines correctly on the various news sources available on the web, Trump has been kinda animated these last several days; "energetic" is perhaps a klnd way to put it. Whichever adjective one chooses, he seems to have settled in along the spectrum line between "manic" and "frantic".
I get the impression that he just may give us a real blockbuster show here soon; the daily Trump show gone full extravaganza for us to watch. (Not having his fix of his traveling road show to sooth his fragile psychie is wearing on him--the junky's jonesing I reckon it.)
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"Perhaps it was inevitable that the virus would not spare
Russia."
Probably. I noticed a couple of days ago that their admitted rate of infection, while still low, had jumped up to doubling about every six days (it's now up to a 4.5 day cycle, so it's gonna get worse for them still yet).
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Sweden was doubling covid-19 cases about every eight days last time I checked (I think that's right---close enough anyway), but they've cut their infection rate back to a thirteen day doubling rate now. That or they've gotten embarrassed about how they were rating as against their near neighbors and quit reporting aggressively.
(The United States is now doubling every eleven days, but that's because the virus is picking up speed in "secondary" hot zones, quite a few of them rural. Draw a broad band from east-central Texas through to North Carolina, along and either side, and that's where the virus is spreading fastest these days. And, of course, they just changed the reporting protocol to include "probable" covid-19 deaths for people who didn't get tested and confirmed before they expired, so we had a sudden jump in the calculated doubling rate first couple of days of this week.)
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I saw a video on TV yesterday. Doctor was showing how to sterilize a disposable mask for reuse later (faster method than my two days on a window sill). He put one in a steamer basket--like for steaming vegetables--said 50 seconds at a brisk boil, cover on, was sufficient, then let it dry, which only took a couple minutes on account of it was only in the steamer for 50 seconds.
Headline on FoxNews website (as of now--don't know how long it'll be the top blaring headline, but it is just now)
"Sources believe coronavirus originated in Wuhan lab as
part of China's efforts to compete with US"
Lead paragraph begins:
"There is increasing confidence that COVID-19 likely
originated in a Wuhan laboratory…"
In most of the scientific community the notion that the covid-19 virus was man-made is considered an outside possibility, but very unlikely. On FoxNews they have "sources" (note the lack of attribution to expert sources) who "believe" the Chinese were behind it.
There's FoxNews and then there's the real world--two very different places.
Looks like the QAnon kooks have come up out of the dark. TheDiplomat (a publication I've never heard of before) is promulgating the notion that President Xi of China unleashed covid-19 on the world to make sure that "China didn't suffer alone".
(Makes most of the stuff on FoxNews seem almost sane by contrast.)
N.B. I looked into "The Diplomat" a little further. I was surprised to discover that it's a publication of the Department of Defense. Seems they've gone all in on Trump's efforts to blame China.
I've seen talk about the idea that the virus originated in a Chinese lab. It is another conspiracy theory that covers for Trump. So, I can see why Fox & Friends and other supporters are flocking to it.
The one thing I do question about China is:
Their numbers. In that article it says 83,000 cases with 3,300 dead. Given how infectious this stuff is and their delay in acting I have to wonder about that.
Perhaps Jeffrey was right.
(faster method than my two days on a window sill).
Rats, I think I did one day. I'll have to adjust that. Oh, wait, I do let them sit in the car on the front seat, so perhaps they are getting some sun there too.
While we're on the subject of Trumpian overreach, have you noticed that Trump's now claiming the power to appoint federal judges without Senate confirmation?
I did not see that. I will have to read that later. Typical dictator wanna be behavior.
Elizabeth Warren today became the second woman (after Stacey Abrams of Georgia) to have offered a preëmptive acceptance of the Vice Presidential nomination from Biden.
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One day is probably enough time to let a mask sit on a window sill. They said the virus was viable for 24 hours on paper surfaces (including cardboard). But, I figured two days on account of I was figuring ya put it on a window sill when ya get home at night, and then it'd be the next night before the 24 hours was up, so, morning after that before it was definitely clear of potential virus.
Trump appears to be now trying to get some politicians enrolled in his yet to be unveiled "Opening Our Country Council/Task Force/whichever". Politico Reportedly, his efforts to enlist corporate representatives during a conference call yesterday did not go as he would have wished.
Garbled my explanation; let me try that again.
They said the virus was viable for up to 24 hours on paper surfaces. So, if ya wore it late in the day and then put it on the window sill when ya came home in the evening, then it'd not necessarily be ready to go to work the next morning, the 24 hours having not passed since it was used. You'd have to leave it on the window sill while you went to work the one day, which means switching off to a different mask for the second day. Then you could use the first one again. And rotate like that.
I note that the Trump administration has issued its new "guidelines" for reopening the country for business. Stripped of political misdirection--the guidelines states are on their own with this. The Trump administration continues to disavow any responsibility for anything having anythingj to do with the pandemic response--except that Trump reserves the right to preen for the cameras daily, at least until he's allowed to re-open the Trump Traveling Road Show.
And he reserves the right to take as much political advantage from the epidemic as is possible. (With the enthusiastic coöperation of Radio-Right-Wing and FoxNews.)
typo correction, bad editing ↑↑: "…the guidelines say that the states are on their own with this…".
Canary in the coalmine??
If Trump isn't going to take any responsibility for urging people to remain and leave it up to the Governor's to decide then he is throwing under the bus many of his supporters.
People seem to be forgetting that a lot of these areas are food production areas. Or maybe some people haven't and that's why they are stockpiling their freezers.
"remain open"
I have a paper mask I've been using and a cloth one. I have left both on the windowsill. I will add another one to the mix.
The paper one is kind of like a coffee filter type of material. Hard to describe. So it can't be washed.
"Hard to describe."
Like the blue ones on the left OR like the white ones on the right?
"…these areas are food production areas."
The loss of capacity, so far most notable in the meat packing industry (the Smithfield plant in South Dakota is getting the most press), is largely being off-set by a collapse of restaurant orders for food. (Or so local sources are telling me.) What this means is that there should be no shortage of meat in the grocery stores any time soon (what shortages there are will likely be the result of distribution networks). The brand labels may be unfamiliar--companies normally in restaurant supply looking for retail buyers now, but there should be plenty of meat to go 'round.
(I haven't heard any insider talk about produce--much of which is brought in from abroad this time of year.)
Trumptweets: Trump is trying to incite uprisings against state efforts to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus. This is traditional right-winger politics (as adopted by Trump)--they have long depended upon their ability to to keep their base stirred up against the true enemy--the "other" Americans.
And it usually works.
It's like the white ones on the right, but with no writing.
My neighbor said it looked like a painters mask. It was one my Mom had, but I don't think it was a painter's mask.
I googled around and I think it's a dust mask. It's white with one elastic band that goes around your head with a metal band on top to form to your nose. It's not smooth but has some ridges, although it's not pleated.
"I don't think it was a painter's mask."
Depends on what the painter was using, oil based paint or latex. Most of those you'll find are not designed for oil-based particulates--meaning no oil-based paints. The ones that are useful for oily particulates are almost always individually marked. Calling them "painter's masks" is just a convention--they're widely used in construction and for more than just painting. And they're called different things in different places.
Here's the secret about those masks: Most of what you'll find for sale in the lumber yards and hardware stores are "N90"; "N" meaning not for use for oil-based particles, and 90 meaning they'll catch 90% of the airborne particles 3 microns and larger in diameter. However, most of them are not individually marked--gotta read the back of the package to know what's really in it. Some of them are actually N95 masks that just haven't been marked as such and have been diverted to sale in the hardware and lumber stores. Some are even marked N95s. (The standard for use against germs is N95--meaning they'll catch 95% of the 3 micron and larger particles.) The difference in the effectiveness of N90 and N95 is marginal, but the federal standards are what they are and the medicos all demand N95 masks if they can get them. If your mother got them from a medical supply or from her doctor they're likely N95s.
I kept masks like that on hand in my workshop (3M brand) so I had a supply on hand when this thing hit. I use them for spray painting, sanding, hacksawing, etc., anything that'll raise a cloud of dust I don't wanna breath in. Some of them had writing on them, probably said they were N95s (too sun faded to read and I didn't care enough to try to hunt up the original packaging).
Anyway, my point is, if you've got masks that look like the rounded versions on the right, there's a likelihood they're N90s, just not marked. If they came from a medical source they're likely N95s, nust not marked. Not a lot of difference practically.
They'll take the vegetable steamer basket treatment I mentioned earlier, but there's no use in doing that if you've got enough of them to just let 'em sit on the window sill and alternate 'em. And they'll last longer if not treated to the extra abuse of the steamer.
Post Script: The better quality ones, most likely to be at least N90s even if found in hardware departments, use two separate straps to hold them on. Cheaper ones sometimes use just one elastic strap. But that's not necessarily a clear indication--just a hint. Sometimes they put just one strap on an N90 to justify selling it for a cheaper price in the slot right next to another N90 with two straps.
Post Script: And you can also find N95s with just one strap. (As I said that's not indicative--just a hint.)
Trump is trying to incite uprisings against state efforts to mitigate the spread of the coronavirus.
Yes, I saw that. He was targeting Minnesota too..."Liberate Minnesota".
I rather liked the one commentor in the feed that said:
"Liberate America: Vote Biden."
I don't have the box anymore so I don't know for sure what they are. Maybe the N90's. She didn't get them from a hardware store. She always got them at a drugstore. They are much nicer to breathe in than the cloth ones, although not as stylish. I have 3 of them so I can alternate them.
"She always got them at a drugstore."
Most likely at least N90s then, unless your momma was one of those fierce bargain hunter types and hunted out the exceptions. Don't know that I've ever seen lower rated masks at a drug store (nor even in the medical department at the local grocery chain).
"Liberate America: Vote Biden."
There we go. Anybody but Trump.
"President Donald Trump said there’s enough coronavirus
testing capacity to put in place his plan to allow a phased
reopening of the economy, even though some state officials
and business leaders have raised alarms about shortages."
Bloomberg
Considering that the Trump administration doesn't actually have a testing plan, beyond pawning off all responsibility to the various states, this is technically true.
It requires absolutely zero testing capacity for him to plan to declare himself absolved of all responsibility in this crisis, and that's the only plan he's actually got.
"It is too soon for a full reckoning of the effects of the
“Swedish model.” The COVID-19 death rate is nine times
higher than in Finland, nearly five times higher than in
Norway, and more than twice as high as in Denmark."
ProjectSyndicate
I was out and about this week to various places. I can't explain it but there seemed to be a different atmosphere. It wasn't just that the usual crowds were thinner, or that some people were wearing masks. It was the feeling in the stores themselves. The shelves weren't as well stocked. Possibly people are still stocking up on some things. I have found more soap, toilet paper and some disposable gloves, which I hadn't seen since this began. But the Easter cards were still on display at Target. By now they would have been exchanged for something else.
There is less lightness of spirit perhaps. Although you can still find it in the oddest places. I was driving down a street and noticed that someone had put up an Easter display of colored eggs and bunnies on their chain link fence. It was a splash of color in a still drab landscape.
I just noticed that all three of the major broadcast networks are running a two hour special called "One World: Together at Home", which is described as "A global broad entertainment special to celebrate the heroic efforts of community health workers and support the World Health Organization and the global fight to end COVID-19".
Gonna make the local right-wingers nuts if they stumble across it.
It's not being carried on the local Fox Broadcasting affiliated channel.
"It was the feeling in the stores themselves."
A veteran of Afghanistan described it thusly, comparing it to his time among a guerrilla enemy: "But there’s a deep sense that this disease could be lurking, this virus could be lurking anywhere. That vigilance wears on you."
Yes, maybe that is it. It wasn't just an emptiness like during the 2007 - 2009 Great Recession. It was an apprehension.
Meanwhile:
Are there cracks forming in the conservative media?
Drudge supported Trump during the 2016 presidential election and in the early days of the Trump presidency was even a frequent visitor to the White House. But since the summer of 2019, the Drudge Report has spotlighted a significant amount of negative news about the Trump.
"A global broad entertainment special to celebrate the heroic efforts of community health workers and support the World Health Organization and the global fight to end COVID-19".
lol! I saw that. I wonder if they changed that bit about supporting the WHO at the last minute? Classic.
I didn't watch, though, for some reason I just wasn't in the mood for feel good.
Trump's efforts to turn our semi-quarantine status into a partisan issue seems to paying off. I'm reading more and more essays by self-avowed "conservatives" who're insisting that stay=at-home orders be rescinded or simply disobeyed. I think that'll be mainstream Republican dogma in another week or ten days or so.
Let's say rather that it "very well may be mainstream Republican dogma in a week or ten days or so."
WashingtonPost: Turns out the United States had dozens of employees from the Health and Human Services Dept. (HHS) and from the Atlanta based Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) embedded with the WHO and feeding back real-time data on what the WHO actually did and did not know about the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China. Exactly what was in those reports and how high it up it went in the American government are not yet known. However, we do know that Alex Azar, Secretary of HHS has since then been frozen out of the press by the Trump administration after it became known that he had repeatedly warned Trump about the dangers posed by the virus and that Trump was intent on ignoring those warnings (Trump found the warnings unhelpful to his chosen reëlection campaign strategy as it was developed back in December and January), all the while Trump was simultaneously telling the press that it was no big deal and they were on top of it. Now Azar is persona non grata in Trumpland, and Trump's pretending that the Trump administration didn't know what the WHO knew about the Chinese viral outbreak.
I figure this story's got legs, short legs, just for the next few months probably, but legs nonetheless. This first report probably ain't the last we'll hear 'bout this.
That also goes hand in hand with Trump encouraging the protests against the stay-at-home orders. His blaming the WHO and diverting attention away from his own culpability and encouraging the protests acts as a diversionary tactic.
I know many are concerned for their businesses and rightfully so, but here's the thing, if people are too sick, or dead, they are not going to frequent any of those businesses. If we have too many hotspots occurring in food industry infrastructure because the virus is continuing to spread because of reopening too soon we are going to start to have problems down the line with food. Yeah, we've got it, but who processes it?
That people can't look beyond the here and now to some worse case possibilities is the same mistake that Trump made with this whole pandemic mess. Oh, yeah, and if this goes south big time it will affect Trump and his business "empire". What's left of it.
Trump's plan to shore up the price of oil after the Saudi/Russian price war has hit a glitch. Storage capacities world-wide are filling up, no place to put the stuff being pumped (and in some cases the Trump administration was simply purchasing crude and pumping it back into the ground somewhere else).
The Trumpian "solution" whereby the Saudi and the Russians agreed that other folks would sell less oil is now moot. Everybody is now selling less oil 'cause the buyers are all filled up and have quit buying.
The price of benchmark West Texas crude oil has now dropped to under $2.00 per barrel. It was hovering around $30 per barrel when Trump announced his beautiful agreement to somehow force American oil companies sell less oil so the Saudi and the Russians could sell more. (And somehow force the Mexicans and Canadians play along as well.)
Now it doesn't even matter; nobody's buyin'.
I forgot the link to the $2.00 per barrel price notice.
"That also goes hand in hand with Trump encouraging the
protests against the stay-at-home orders."
Yeah, Trump has identified the partisan protests as the best chance he has for diverting the public conversation away from his administration's handling of the pandemic. The WHO and "Chinese virus" arguments are somewhat useful, but the home-grown anti-quarantine movement has the greatest promise to deliver diversion for him.
I think we do need to recognize that the different levels of infection might call for different public lock-down status in different places. I read that South Dakota (I think it was South Dakota) has 1/40th the infection rate of New York/New Jersey. That would suggest a different public response to the virus is in order.
And I think it quite conceivable that in some states it might make the most sense to approach the lock-downs on a county by county basis.
The Trump administration has refused to implement a Congressional appropriation for funding health care for covid-19 for the otherwise uninsured through the ObamaCare exchanges because it's OBAMAcare. Can't have uninsured people getting covid-19 treatment under any program that reminds people of Obama. However, their plans to provide medical care through some other mechanism seem to have gotten lost between thinking about it and taking an afternoon nap. Politico Gonna be hearing more 'bout this one as well, as the weeks wear on.
The price of benchmark West Texas crude oil has now dropped to under $2.00 per barrel.
It just went negative.
"I think we do need to recognize that the different levels
of infection might call for different public lock-down status
in different places."
Lee C. @ Mon Apr 20, 02:17:00 pm ↑↑
Even so, it looks like Georgia may be a little eager to get out from under lock-down. They peaked 13 days ago, but hit a plateau instead of trending back down. Nevertheless, the Governor has just announced a partial re-opening of business in Georgia starting as of the coming Friday and spreading out from there. Churches can open on Sunday, most public businesses open on the coming Monday. (It should perhaps be noted that Georgia was one of the last states to implement a state-wide stay-at-home order, and is now the first to start backing off of mandatory social-distancing requirements.)
Trump's proposed "Opening Our Country Council/Task Force/Whatever" initiative has almost entirely collapsed because the business leaders Trump attempted to enlist scoped out early on that its chief purpose was to blame them if (when?) Trump's efforts to prematurely open the country for business sparks a renewed outbreak of covid-19 across the country. Apparently Trump was just a little to open about setting them up to take the rap on his behalf--so that's the end of that.
Even so, it looks like Georgia may be a little eager to get out from under lock-down.
I think ditto on the Florida beaches reopening. But, it's their call. And they will have to live with whatever happens. I hope it works out for them.
The Senate Intelligence Committee publicly issued a 158 page, heavily redacted but not-classified version of its report on its findings regarding Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential election. The Senate report, a Republican majority report, renewed the Senate Committees' findings that the Russians had indeed interfered in the election specifically to support the candidacy of Donald Trump and that Vladimir Putin himself had specifically approved at least some of the specific tactics and measures taken in support of Trump's bid for the Presidency.
The report found these things to be proven true "with a high degree of confidence" even if one disregarded all the material in what's come to be known as "the Steele dossier". Politico
The Republican led report is anticipated to have absolutely zero impact on Republican support for President Trump.
"I hope it works out for them."
For it to "work out" for them, they'll have to invent some way to blame the coming secondary spread of covid-19 deaths on the Evil Democrats and the Blue State governors who didn't "open for business" on their preferred timeline. I'm not sure just what faerie tale mechanism they'll come up with to support that story line. And I'm not at all sure I hope that part works out for them. (On the other hand, as a Red State resident, I can hope we get extremely lucky, and there is no secondary round of infections outside the major cities.)
It had been noted on several media sites that Trump had quit promoting the anti-malarial drug hydroquinone these past few days. Today we find out why. The largest government study on the subject (held in VA hospitals) has shown no benefit from its use, and an increase in deaths from cardiac failures. Seems they got word to Trump before they let the information out to the general public.
Correction: hydroxychloroquine not hydroquinone ↑↑
The Senate report, a Republican majority report, renewed the Senate Committees' findings that the Russians had indeed interfered in the election specifically to support the candidacy of Donald Trump...
And they are still doing it.
The Republican led report is anticipated to have absolutely zero impact on Republican support for President Trump.
They apparently would prefer to lay down with our adversaries to achieve their own agenda rather then join hands with other Americans.
(On the other hand, as a Red State resident, I can hope we get extremely lucky, and there is no secondary round of infections outside the major cities.)
It has been spreading to out state Minnesota for some time now I think. It is starting to show up in testing. But the cases are still very low. The majority of cases are around the Twin Cities for the most part. But we are seeing the clusters developing in the meat processing plants.
I watched a documentary on the 1918 Influenza pandemic on channel 2 last night. It is amazing how comparable it is to today's. The spread and the reactions, or non reactions, of people here in the US. Even the effects of the disease are very similar. It was originally aired in the late 90's so they were able to interview people who survived as they were still alive. The one fellow at the tail end was very blunt, he said it could happen to anyone, anywhere.
In the case of the "Spanish" flu, the pandemic ended because the virus just died out. Or became inactive I guess you could say. My guess is that it spread enough through the population to provide immunity.
As "Earth Day" winds its way to the end of its day, we should probably take note, just as a good way to end the day, that 2019, just passed, was the overall hottest calendar year in recorded human history.
Welcome to your future.
"My guess is that it spread enough through the population
to provide immunity."
A virus that kills too many of its hosts does tend to limit its own spread. But, in the case of influenza, a perhaps more significant feature is the tendency to morph readily, too readily to maintain pandemic status over a term of many years. The "Spanish flu" of 1918 was just a particularly deadly variation of what we now call "the bird flu", a seasonal H1N1 flu virus, and it just kinda mutated out of prominence, lost out in the darwinian competition for hosts among the various seasonal viral strains. (Covid-19 might disappear on its own as well--and then again, maybe not.)
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I noticed that Mitch McConnell has now said publicly that state and local governments should be forced into bankruptcy instead of receiving bail-out money from the federal government. (Private corporations get bailed out, local public entities do not--makes no sense to me beyond obvious donor maintenance.)
McConnell also wants to "de-stimatize" wearing breathing masks. He says that, " No one should be embarrassed to wear a mask." (I was not aware that that there was a social stigma attached to wearing a filtration mask in Kentucky.)
I'm thinking that Kentucky is probably one of the few places where McConnell could still expect get elected to the Senate by a comfortable margin, but he's still favored there to win again, handily, in 2020. (Gotta admit I'm hoping for an upset there-but I ain't holding my mask-filtered breath on that one.)
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Trump dumped on the idea of Georgia opening up unfettered for business during the coming week. The Republican governor of Georgia is now gonna havta eat that one on his own. (Seems like a rather blatant betrayal of one of his own advance scouts to me--probably looks like that to the Republican governor of Georgia as well.) I gotta think this one is a desperation move. Probably Trump's been noticing the polls are running against him, and he's not getting his addicts' fix of approvals from the currently closed-until-further-notice Traveling Trump Road Show.
I'm expecting even further erratic moves coming shortly as the crisis wears on. We might even be treated to a public orange melt-down in the foreseeable future.
(I'm already betting, by the way, that he refuses to engage in any of the regularly scheduled Presidential Debates with Joe Biden this cycle.)
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Vox: A new study out of the University of Chicago (normally a bastion of conservative-leaning research) suggests that the Sean Hannity Show measurably contributed to the spread of covid-19 amongst those who listened to the show (at least among those listeners who actually believed in the spiel that Hannity was pushing).
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A bit of news not much reported in these days when the virus takes center stage on most news platforms….
A coalition of Southern governors (Republicans all) have been quietly working on a joint plan to re-open their states (Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida) for public business. TheHill
We have already seen Trump publicly cut the Governor of Georgia off at the knees.
Could get interesting there.
So now they are saying that the virus may have been here longer than they were originally thinking. They have discovered that a woman who died in California on Feb. 6 had Covid-19. She was 57 and in otherwise good health.
They are getting closer to my thinking on a timeline. I have always thought it may have been in Minnesota before March too.
I really do want to take that serology test.
Welcome to your future.
There are many who won't even notice. They are too distracted by the new "normal'.
*sigh*
We have already seen Trump publicly cut the Governor of Georgia off at the knees.
Could get interesting there.
But it is his MO. If they haven't learned by now then I won't feel sorry for them.
Meanwhile, here in Minnesota they have finally come out and said that schools will not reopen this year. They are done. It was kind of expected. No Spring sports either.
We are still hoping for the State Fair.
"…they have finally come out and said that schools will not
reopen this year."
Our local (county wide) school board thought they had that authority on their own, irrespective of what the governor thinks 'bout it, and they made that decision back in late March, when the County Health Department issued its own shut-down/stay-at-home quarantine orders.
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Gasoline @ 95¢/gallon locally. Okay, that's an outlier; I have no idea what motivated that one station to drop to 95¢/gallon, frustration perhaps; on the other hand, $1.25/gallon is not an outlier--there are several of those around.
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Starting today we will begin to discover that, while the Governor of Georgia can summarily Order the re-opening of nail salons, tattoo parlors, bowling alleys, and the like; he cannot enforce said Order; he cannot force the owners to actually open their doors nor force the public to show up and spend money. The dedicated Trumpkins will be disappointed of course, but they'll bravely soldier on, eager as always to discover the next plot by which the hated "Elites" plan to steal America away from the "Real Americans" (that latter would be them, the dedicated Trumpkins).
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There's a rumor running 'round that the military may already have an anti-viral drug effective against covid-19. They're looking into it. (Remdesivir is looking like as big a bust as was hydroxychloroquine.)
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According to the NewYorkTimes: Trump's daily prime-time news conference/campaign rally has become the central event of his Presidential day.
By the way, as pork processing plants have continued to shut down across the country the happy talk I'd been hearing locally about there being plenty of excess capacity has cut off. Nobody seems to be saying that anymore.
The State of Florida, specifically the Miami/Dade County Fire and Rescue Department, had made a connection for 1 million N95 masks, and was trying to finalize the acquisition when the federal government heard about it and then swooped in and scooped them up. The MiamiHerald is not happy 'bout that.
(Remdesivir is looking like as big a bust as was hydroxychloroquine.)
I hadn't heard that! I was kind of hoping it would turn out to be at least one answer. The other being the plasma infusion from recovered infected people.
There's a rumor running 'round that the military may already have an anti-viral drug effective against covid-19.
If so they have military personnel who may want to try it.
Starting today we will begin to discover that, while the Governor of Georgia can summarily Order the re-opening of nail salons, tattoo parlors, bowling alleys, and the like; he cannot enforce said Order; he cannot force the owners to actually open their doors nor force the public to show up and spend money.
Yes, there is that point. I suspect desperate people who are looking for haircuts may brave the waters, but others will stay away. Especially if cases are not declining.
The MiamiHerald is not happy 'bout that.
They just gotta learn that you can't stand in the way of Trump when he wants to play father bountiful and score points with his base.
The stories in the News that Sweden isn’t doing anything to combat Corona are false. We DO do things much like most countries but we do it on a voluntary basis. If you need laws and cops preventing you from behaving irresponsibly then there’s a deeper problem in your societies. Common sense and respecting your fellow citizens ought to be enough, and the powers of the state can limit themselves to issuing guidelines.
If you need laws and cops preventing you from behaving irresponsibly then there’s a deeper problem in your societies.
I can agree with this to some degree. Obviously it will be hard to get citizens of a country to act responsibly when their elected leaders have
difficulty doing so. I, of course, refer to Donald Trump's suggestion, whether it was sarcasm or musing, that people might try injecting disinfectant to fight the virus. I don't care what his motivation was in saying it, it was highly irresponsible to do so at all. Some might even say...stupid.
"The stories in the News that Sweden isn’t doing anything to combat
Corona are false."
I hadn't read any of those stories. They don't seem to be circulating here. I have read articles saying that Sweden's reliance on voluntary measures seems to have led to appreciably higher infection rates than near-neighbors Norway, Finland, and Denmark.
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"Obviously it will be hard to get citizens of a country to act
responsibly when their elected leaders have difficulty doing so."
Trump also suggested shining an intensely bright light about ones innards. However, the immediate reaction to this suggestion was less forceful, probably on account of fewer dedicated Trumpkins have the immediate capacity to light themselves up internally.
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I notice that KN95 masks (or ones representing themselves as KN95s) are once again for sale on Amazon.com, although they're priced at $6.50 per each.
...fewer dedicated Trumpkins have the immediate capacity to light themselves up internally.
lol! That is so.
Trump started ragging on the news media about two hours ago. (trumptweets) He has, so far, posted six tweets on continuing anti-media rant.
I'm guessing this means he's not gonna show up this afternoon for what had become a daily campaign rally/media event/methadone fix, substituting for his currently closed Trump Traveling Road Show.
Junkies can get weird when they don't get their fix. He bears watching, with that in mind.
I think the Republicans are finally starting to realize that Trump may lose them the Senate and have tried very hard to muzzle him.
They can't take away his Twitter though.
Apparently they can't take away his media event/campaign rally/methadone fix either. The White House just let the White House Press Corps know that there would be a rally/event/fix today and that Trump will once again appear center stage.
Meanwhile New Zealand has announced elimination of the virus.
In their case they are considering single digits elimination. But I am thinking that until the world's cases fall significantly no country can really be at ease.
It's lookin' to me like Trump's decided his best move on the epidemic is to lay off all responsibility on state and local governments. It didn't work out well for him the first time, and he's not gonna take another shot at it--just pretend it's not actually a national problem--pretend it's a local problem instead.
I don't think this is gonna get him reëlected. I don't think it'll fly outside of the band of dedicated Trumpkins. But, he's layin' his bets on it.
The Republicans' Senate campaign committee (officially the "National Republican Senatorial Committee" a/k/a "NRSC") issued a memo advising Republican Senators "Don’t defend Trump, other than the China Travel Ban — attack China". The idea is to just change the subject to the attack on China. Politico
Team Trump is not pleased.
The NRSC has issued a statement to the effect that the memo doesn't actually mean what it says.
Lee:
“I hadn't read any of those stories.”
Well, probably most are from British tabloids which I would guess you don’t read all that often.
Lee:
“They don't seem to be circulating here. I have read articles saying that Sweden's reliance on voluntary measures seems to have led to appreciably higher infection rates than near-neighbors”
There’s that indeed. And for sure the more lax approach might play a part. But what also plays a part is we got the infection from people skiing in Italy and bringing it home, and there are just way more Swedes down there than Danes or especially Norwegians who ski at home. Then we did a horrid job at protecting elderly care homes, which doesn’t have anything to do with a general quarantine, they WERE In quarantine, just not enough, the staff brought it in unwittingly it seems.
Still, if not only compared to our immediate neighbors but to Europe as a whole we seem to be somewhere in the middle. Better than Belgium, Spain, Italy and the U.K. Who all did lockdowns. And we’ve got greater numbers of people w antibodies, high might tell of at least partial immunity. So when this shit virus comes back in the fall we might be better off.
So it’s not yet a given that a more lax approach is the wrong one. Not saying it definitely isn’t, but it ain’t certain that it is.
Here’s one recent article in English
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/26/845211085/stockholm-expected-to-reach-herd-immunity-in-may-swedish-ambassador-says?t=1588093687307
Also note we do count deaths in old care homes, and people dying at home, which many European countries do not. I believe the US counts the same as Sweden as I read some CDC report requiring those deaths to be tallied as well. But many countries basically only count what comes into the ER.
And as for China’s actual numbers I wouldn’t trust them past asking a Gypsy to hang on to my full wallet when I go take a piss.
And we’ve got greater numbers of people w antibodies, high might tell of at least partial immunity. So when this shit virus comes back in the fall we might be better off.
There is always that factor in this whole mess. Quarantining people may stave off some deaths, but if there are not enough people who are not susceptible the virus will still come back. I think in our case many areas were playing for time to make sure they had enough medical equipment, beds and hopefully personnel so we didn't have people dying in the hallways or in their homes. There are many of the more acute cases who survived because they had access to decent medical care. It also bought a little time to try to find a treatment that might work.
But here's the thing, the models they are using are assuming some things, such as the timeline of when the virus first arrived, to come up with their peaks and valleys. What if it has been around longer, with more people exposed who were then infected but with milder symptoms, and their timeline is then thrown off? Will some areas peak sooner than they think?
Another thought...we have a glut of oil which is being stored. The oil producers are paying people to take it off their hands. So any oil that is going into the strategic oil preserve should be generating income to Uncle Sam from those aforementioned oil producers. Right?
It really is a upside down world.
"So when this shit virus comes back in the fall we might be
better off."
That's assuming that this virus doesn't mutate as readily as the seasonal flu, and come back brand new in the fall like the flu. But, we don't know that it morphs that readily yet. Lot we don't yet know about it.
But, you do have a point. It ain't over 'til it's over; first round ain't the whole game.
We won't know for sure who's technique was superior 'til they do the body count after they finally come up with a vaccine for this, which brings up another point…
Nobody has yet produced a successful vaccine against any known coronavirus.
These viri are in the same family as "the common cold" which is famous for being vaccine-proof and for not generating a persistent immunity. (I.e: People get the cold repeatedly, no immunity.) There's also no effective vaccine for SARS or MERS.
Nobody has yet produced a successful vaccine against any known coronavirus.
"President Donald Trump plans to order meat-processing
plants to continue operating, declaring them critical
infrastructure as the nation confronts growing disruptions to
the food supply, a person familiar with the matter told
POLITICO.
"Trump will use the Defense Production Act to order the
companies to stay open. The government will also provide
additional protective gear for employees as well as guidance,
according to the person."
Politico
(Story also published 14 minutes later on USA-Today)
He won't use the Defense Production Act to provide ventilators or swabs or other stuff to fight the virus, but he will prevail on minimum wage workers to keep his cheeseburgers comin'. I get the feeling this one'll come back to haunt him when folks keep askin' why he's not using the DPA to supply the medical supplies needed by the doctors, nurses, and EMTs on the front lines.
"Right?"
Yeah, right. Republicans in charge and they're gonna bleed little money from the fossil fuels magnates. That's gonna happen; yeah, right.
Republicans in charge and they're gonna bleed little money from the fossil fuels magnates. That's gonna happen; yeah, right.
lol! Well, at least they better have gotten the oil for free.
President Donald Trump plans to order meat-processing
plants to continue operating, declaring them critical
infrastructure as the nation confronts growing disruptions to
the food supply,...
And as anyone could have predicted if they actually thought about this, many of the workers are saying "nope, we won't show up".
Geez, what an idiot. No, I don't mean the worker.
"Well, at least they better have gotten the oil for free."
They ended up not taking the oil at all. First, Congress refused to authorize him to buy oil to shore up oil prices (the law authorizing the Strategic Reserve was designed to keep consumer fuel prices from going up during a shortage--not to shore up the price of crude, which is like the exact opposite of the intended purpose). Then Trump wanted to lease out the room to oil companies to store their oil, but they wanted the room for free (or at a profit to them) and Congress wouldn't go along with that, couldn't get that one authorized either. Couple more swings at trying to prop up oil prices never came to fruition and it soon became clear that Trump had no answers for them.
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"And as anyone could have predicted…"
The Trump administration can't even throw the union officials in jail for conspiracy to evade Trump's Order on account of the plants ain't unionized anymore. So, he's got nothin' to whack the workers with.
Headline, Reuters (via the New York Times): "Trump Administration to Speed Coronavirus Vaccine Development: Senior Administration Official"
I don't actually trust them to get this right. I suspect they're panicky and reachin' for headlines they can grab onto right now and a deadline for accountability that they can put off until after the election.
New trials suggest (in conflict with some old trials) that remdesivir does have an ameliorative effect on covid-19; eight percent of the test subjects receiving remdesivir died as compared with eleven percent who got a placebo. Politico
96¢ gasoline is becoming more common (95⁹¢ to be precise about it). So far nobody's showin' any inclination to shoot for the 90¢ per gallon barrier, but there's at least a half-dozen that I know 'bout holdin' in at 96¢.
Yes, I had kind of heard all along that remdesivir was helpful for some people. More so than the drug that Trump was touting. At least it is a small glimmer of light.
Signs out of Wuhan are that reopening isn't bringing a huge economic benefit, despite the Chinese government's wishing. Businesses are still closed as many people are still not venturing out in great numbers. There has also been a spike in Covid-19 cases.
Sweden has a higher death toll than it's neighbors and is apparently shooting for some kind of herd immunity.
Two different scenarios, but which will end up being the better answer? Given the global nature of the world economy, maybe neither. Because it isn't just about Covid anymore.
Americans' rate of savings has spiked to around 13%, a rate not seen since 1981.
Gas was around $1.29 the last time I bought. The cost to one business I know is at $1.00 a gallon.
Looking like the Trump administration is really, really wanting somebody in the intelligence services to back up a so far evidence free theory that the covid-19 virus escaped from a Chinese research laboratory. The want that to be true, got a serious want going there; and if it's not true they want the spooks to back them up when they claim it's true anyway.
Trump's gettin' panicky is what's happenin' there.
He needs a scapegoat. The “invisible enemy” doesn’t quite cut it as no one will be ready to blame the virus itself but rather then the response to the outbreak, which in the US Trump himself is much responsible for. The Chinese are a better scapegoat, an external enemy he can accuse of negligence or maybe even malice.
Marcus is right. Trump is trying to pass the buck and it is China's turn to take the blame.
Various scientists have already come out saying it is possible to trace a virus and a lab wasn't the likely suspect. Yes, those same scientists that are the bane of Trump's existence.
Various protests going on against the shelter in place orders. I can understand people's worry about their jobs and livelihoods. But I don't think they will find that a reopening will bring things back to normality soon.
Trump's gettin' panicky is what's happenin' there.
Yes.
I see that there has come forward someone who is accusing Biden of sexual assault back in the 90's. While I have every sympathy for a woman who has gone through this, her timing seems rather questionable. Biden has been in public office now for quite some time. It will not change my mind or my vote.
"In a December 2018 Medium essay, Reade wrote glowingly
about Putin, saying he 'scares the power elite in America
because he is a compassionate, caring, visionary leader.'
"'To President Putin,' Reade concluded, 'I say keep your eyes
to the beautiful future and maybe, just maybe America will
come to Russia as I do, with eyes of love.'"
Politifact
(Reade later said her praise of Putin was "misguided", but only after she had charged Biden with sexual assault and only after she was then confronted with her earlier essay. As Nancy Pelosi once noted to Trump's face, "All roads seem to lead back to Putin" where Trump is concerned. And Trump is definitely concerned about the prospect of losing to Biden.)
Federal appellate court for Washington D.C. has refused to order a stay on its earlier order that the DoJ turn over to Congress the grand jury evidence from the Mueller Investigation that the House committees had been seeking. (Grand jury evidence is generally held in secret, but the House had subpoenaed the documentation.) The D.C. Circuit did extend the compliance date for their Order until the 11th of May.
That gives the Trump administration ten days to seek a stay from the Supreme Court (now that the D.C. Appellate Court has refused their request for a stay). Likely the Trump administration will decline to turn over the subpoenaed information even if the Supreme Court refuses to issue the requested stay. That will put the Department of Justice in contempt of court, and, with any other government entity would mean that high ranking officials will end up behind bars. But, with this administration I think it's likely they'll just refuse to surrender to the courts. (Or the Supreme Court might issue a stay of execution to protect Trump from having to make that last step into overt defiance of the federal courts.)
"Team Trump is not pleased."
Lee C. @ Mon Apr 27, 11:49:00 pm ↑↑
Team Trump's displeasure has resulted in changes being made. The NRSC, and the executive director of same, one Kevin McLaughlin, have backpedaled furiously since the memo became known to Team Trump. Now, "There is no daylight between the NRSC and President Trump". And the Senate Republican Campaign Committee (NRSC) has fully embraced Trump's "highly effective federal response to Covid-19." NewYorkTimes
We can hope they all go down together and that this most recent decision to "all hang together" facilitates that joint loss. The Republican Party won't be able to shake itself free of Trump unless he loses catastrophically, and costs them the Senate as well.
USAToday: Ex-prosecutor details why he has come to doubt the allegations of Tara Reade. To-the-point; not too long; worth the read.
Unrelated to the pandemic, but important enough to note in its own right…
Canada has just banned assault weapons, some 1,500 so-far identified models (perhaps more will be added to the list later). For those who debate whether the term "assault weapon" is too vague to serve as the criteria for such a ban, Canada's experience over the next year or so should be enlightening. New Zealand has also issued such a ban recently. ABCNews affiliate, WFTV.
"The Chinese are a better scapegoat, an external enemy he
can accuse of negligence or maybe even malice."
I've been considering that. He already has all the argument and all the evidence he needs to scapegoat China. They concealed both the contagion and the lethality of the virus. He's gilding the lily, intentionally. It's unnecessary for scapegoating China. It has another purpose, a different purpose.
Only thing I can think of is he's desperate to incite the domestic fight over the faerie tale itself. He's desperate to maintain his position as champion of his Trumpkins in their ongoing fight with their real enemy--non-Trumpkin America and that faerie tale over the Wuhan virus laboratory is intended to be a marker, a rallying point, a flash point, somewhere to plant the flag, something to fight about in that most important fight with non-Trumpkin America.
He wants that other fight, with us, not the fight with China. That's what the faerie tale is all about.
NBCNews: Tara Reade has admitted to NBC that the job complaint she claims to have filed against Joe Biden in 1993 didn't actually accuse him of a sexual assault. She's a little vague on what it might have alleged, but apparently whatever it was (assuming, of course, that there actually was any such complaint); it wasn't sexual assault nor even sexual harassment.
Reade later said her praise of Putin was "misguided",..
I don't know if she's being bought and paid for by Russia but she's definitely a kook.
Ex-prosecutor details why he has come to doubt the allegations of Tara Reade. To-the-point; not too long; worth the read.
I just read it and he made some very good points. He must have been a good prosecutor. He also reinforces my opinion that she is not playing with a full deck.
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