On February 28 Donald Trump, in partnership with Benjamin Netanyahu, attacked Iran.
Netanyahu’s motivation is fairly obvious. Israel and Iran have been at odds since the creation of the Jewish state. Israel has fought various wars against Arab states in order to survive. So I am sure that getting a US president to support Israel in its effort to remove the Islamic Republic was a coup for them.
But what were Donald Trump’s motives? Every time you hear him or his minions speak their motives seem to change. It was interesting to hear them say Iran has been a regime of terror since the hostage crisis in 1979, going on to sponsor terrorists in various countries, including Hezbollah in Lebanon. That no other president had the courage to do something about it except Donald Trump. For some reason the administration spokespeople seem to cut off history at 1979. But, what happened before then? Why were the hostages taken?
The hostages were taken because we allowed the deposed Shah in to the United States for cancer treatment. We did that because he had been an ally of the United States since the CIA and MI6, the British intelligence service, staged a covert coup removing the elected Iranian leader, Mohammad Mosaddegh. The Iranians were suspicious that we were going to try to re-insert him as leader of Iran. Having said that, this in no way excuses Iran’s behavior after the coup. They merely put in place a leader who was just as bad as the Shah, Ruhollah Khomeini, via the Islamic Revolution. Ali Khamenei, the man Israel and the United States killed, was his successor. There is no disputing that Iran has fomented all sorts of unpleasant things in the Middle East.
But I remember when Trump campaigned, saying there would be no forever wars under his administration. Well, perhaps the forever war with Iran started a long time ago because of something we did. But I wonder how much thought about the ramifications of making this a “hot” war Trump & Co. really put into when planning this? Because I feel like I am looking at Marvel comic book characters when I listen to Trump, Hegseth and other spokespeople for this administration.
Did he have even less sense than Mrs. O’Leary’s cow?
Because it seems that he has helped start a fire that will take a very long time to put out. If at all. The killing of the students at the Iranian girls’ school will only fan the flames of hate. Whether or not this was a US missile or not. This war, and let me be clear, this is a war, will have global economic impacts. It already has impacted the families of all of those killed. So, to get back to those who said there were no former presidents who would do this, just Donald Trump. One legislator, who was blunt, said it was because he was stupid. Maybe, or was this just another attempt on his part to deflect from his horrible poll numbers at home? As I said in my last post, a war is a classic deflection for any dictator. It is not, however, for a real democracy.
Just to be clear, we have not forgotten Jeffrey Epstein or Minneapolis.
But I remember when Trump campaigned, saying there would be no forever wars under his administration. Well, perhaps the forever war with Iran started a long time ago because of something we did. But I wonder how much thought about the ramifications of making this a “hot” war Trump & Co. really put into when planning this? Because I feel like I am looking at Marvel comic book characters when I listen to Trump, Hegseth and other spokespeople for this administration.
Did he have even less sense than Mrs. O’Leary’s cow?
Because it seems that he has helped start a fire that will take a very long time to put out. If at all. The killing of the students at the Iranian girls’ school will only fan the flames of hate. Whether or not this was a US missile or not. This war, and let me be clear, this is a war, will have global economic impacts. It already has impacted the families of all of those killed. So, to get back to those who said there were no former presidents who would do this, just Donald Trump. One legislator, who was blunt, said it was because he was stupid. Maybe, or was this just another attempt on his part to deflect from his horrible poll numbers at home? As I said in my last post, a war is a classic deflection for any dictator. It is not, however, for a real democracy.
Just to be clear, we have not forgotten Jeffrey Epstein or Minneapolis.
88 comments:
Trump has offered to waive American sanctions on millions of barrels of Russian oil stranded on 'found' tankers of Russia's 'shadow fleet'. (He hasn't actually issued that order yet--probably hoping that just discussing the option in public will move the tankers to market and then he can just ignore it.) Good news for Putin; bad news for Ukraine.
Russia, despite its helping Iran in this conflict, does stand to benefit from rising oil prices. Trump seems adept at making moves that benefit our adversaries.
Trump has his own list of who is and who is not a 'adversary' to Trump.
Yes, and they do not necessarily match those of the United States and the American people. Rather odd for a so called president of the United States.
Hegseth speaking now at a press conference. The military spokesperson seems professional. Hegseth, as well as so many Trump appointees, just tries to be more Trumpian than Trump.
Off topic, I had to go back and fix that one section where I spoke about the hostages. No matter how I let a post age before I post it some clumsy wording or formatting slips in. *sigh*
Beginning to look like the War on Iran will continue until the Trump administration figures out a way to get oil tankers through the Straight of Hormuz.
My guess is he won't get too many companies taking him up on US Navy protection. All it takes is one lucky shot by Iran.
Morning news suggests Iran is going to try to discourage traffic through the Straight of Hormuz. Layin' mines, shooting missiles and drones, and like that. (The Trump administration claims to be active on the mine clearing efforts already.)
I think they took out a few inactive minelayers. But word is that Iran has struck ships and will start to lay mines. So it does look like they will try to close the Strait.
I filled up my car yesterday. Gas was up 60 cents since the last time I bought a couple weeks ago.
Up 50 cents here. Trump has been rather cavalier about that. Stock market trembles him more, and that's bein' shaky as well. But he'll just have to endure that.
I filled up my other car today. Gas was up 5 cents from yesterday.
Somewhat off topic…
Trump has been pressing hard for passage of a new federal law supposedly making it illegal for foreigners to vote in federal elections. (It's already illegal for foreigners to vote in federal elections.) He also wants a requirement for photo ID.
Voter fraud is virtually non-existant in the United States, so what's he up to? He wants a new federal law implemented, one that's never been litigated all the way to the Supreme Court. (This so that he can ignore federal district court orders and even appellate court orders regarding his interventions in the 2026 mid-term elections, on the spurious claim that the decisions are not binding on him because they are not yet "final" judgements of the Supreme Court). This will give his administration maximum leeway to intervene in and perhaps even overide the upcoming congressional mid term elections (widely expected to be a Trumpkan/Republican rout).
We can expect him to return to this demand with ever increasing passion as the November elections approach. He's not done with this push.
Trump has today decided that it's not "appropriate" for Iran's soccer team to compete in the upcoming World Cup matches to be held in the United States. Yesterday (or maybe the day before) Trump said he had no problem with it. Early today (Iranian time) Iran’s sports minister Ahmad Donyamali said they definitely were NOT going to participate. A couple of hours later Trump decided that they shouldn't come and made a public announcement of his decision. Just wanted everybody to know he was the "decider" on that.
Even though, well, even though he wasn't.
My opening comment ↑↑ addressed the Trump administration's offer to waive sanctions on Russian oil, while noting that the offer was 'on the table' as the Trump administration puts it, but no formal order had yet been promulgated.
That's changed now. The Trump administration is formally waiving sanctions on Russian fossil fuels already in transit; Trump's order entered as of yesterday.
Yup, he always finds a way to help Putin.
A CNN headline reads "US underestimated the Iran war's impact on the Strait of Hormuz". Gee, ya think? It probably didn't help that Trump fired all of those experts on Iran that used to work in our security agencies.
There is word that Iran would like to attack the US mainland with drones. They were thinking of getting a ship off the coast of California and flying them from there. Obviously they aren't well informed on our internal politics, California being a Democratic state that Trump has been at war with himself. If they want to hurt Trump they would need to look elsewhere, because he couldn't care less about California.
Well, very strange again. I am on the same team as MTG with regard to the Iran war. Really scary times we are living in.
I noted that Trump went on his own internetwork and asked for military help from (specifically), "China, France, Japan, South Korea, the UK and others" to clear the Straight of Hormuz.
You read that right; Trump has called on the Chinese to bail him out of this mess he made. Ain't exactly makin' America Great again. And it ain't lookin' likely he'll be gettin' that "unconditional surrender" he demanded anytime soon either.
Yes, when I heard about the request to the Chinese I couldn't help but picture the US Navy and the Chinese Navy working together. Talk about strange bedfellows.
Trump's getting increasingly demanding that somebody coming to his rescue on his Straight of Hormuz problem. Leaning particularly hard on NATO countries.
Ah, yes, all those allies he didn't think he needed. Funny how things change.
Trump has announced an impending "deal" with Cuba on his privately owned internetwork (Truth Social). Ain't bloody likely. Less likely perhaps than China and NATO bailing him out of his Straight of Hormuz problem.
And… Trump is gonna name JD Vance to head a new federal investigation into "fraud". Just "fraud", no mention of what this "fraud" is supposedly related to. There was mention of the investigation targeting New York, California, and perhaps Minnesota--so we can assume it's "Democratic" fraud, capital "D" on "Democrat". But that seems to be the only focus of the investigation so far--Democrats and some generalized notion of "fraud".
Looks like Trump's getting desperate for some new headlines, what with this and the supposed Cuban deal and a wildly disorganized set of unrelated statements he gave earlier today at the White House in front of reporters.
Finland's president, Alexander Stubb, floated the notion yesterday that Trump might make a deal with Europe for help in securing the Straight of Hormuz in exchange for real, committed American military assistance to Ukraine. Politico.EU
I don't think Trump will bite. He's got a serious man-crush on Putin.
And…we have a U.S. Marine strike force on the way to Iran right now.
Might need some of them for Cuba soon. CBSNews
A hot little war off the southern coast of Florida would probably distract a lot of Trump's detractors from his most recent failures in the Middle East, at least briefly.
American deaths will remind them.
Meanwhile it sounds like Trump's minion at the FCC is making noises like he will try to pull broadcast licenses if coverage of the Iran war doesn't show Trump's "excursion" in a positive light.
Trying to take a leaf out of Putin's playbook.
Oh, how much do half of Americans dislike Trump and his Repuclican minions? Let us count the ways.
Russia has declared their "peace talks" with Ukraine to be on "pause" now due to the outbreak of the Iranian war.
Translation: They no longer believe it necessary to "tap" Trump along. He's busy with Iran; he's not gonna give them any shit now.
Word's going around D.C. that Trump has TACOed again and is preparing to "unsanction" Iranian oil and gas sales. If that happens, the Iranians will interpret it as panic on Trump's part, and will increase their attacks on oil transports AND increase their price for accepting an American surrender.
(It is questionable whether the Israelis will surrender, even if Trump does.)
"Seventy percent of Trump’s 2024 voters support last month’s
strikes [against Iran], according to the survey conducted from
March 13 to 18 by London-based Public First."
Politico
I think the percent for MAGA is 100%.
I saw $3.399 a gallon here at one station. It's weird, though, you drive a few miles and it's 20 cents higher.
Hmmm, Trump seems to think he has won this war because our military and Israel's have destroyed so much of Iran's military capability.
He may be in for a rude awakening.
Middle East wars never really end. They just morph into something else.
"I think the percent for MAGA is 100%."
Actually, that broke out at 'just' 81% in the poll, which is a pretty healthy percentage, but not quite 100%.
Trump is threatening to send ICE agents to the airports. He really likes to double down on stupid.
81% is still too high.
Robert Mueller has died. I didn't realize he was 81.
Trump is celebrating. His is a very low standard of behavior.
"His is a very low standard of behavior."
Nevertheless, it does have a political purpose. He is intentionally demonstrating to his political supporters that political "norms" do not apply to him nor to his supporters. He is demonstrating that they can do as they please without repercussions. Rules be damned; rules are for the other folks to follow. (Sending ICE agents to the airports is much the same type of performative activity.)
He wants his people to be accommodated to the idea that they are not bound by rules nor laws when the time comes to set aside the mid-term elections coming this November.
A bully is always a bully. I guess we will see what happens when two bullies (Trump & Iran) lock horns.
It's a long way to November.
The Rebel Loon is still around.
I just checked the No Kings map for the March 28th No Kings protest. It looks like it may be a bigger turnout than last time.
I am hoping it is warm enough that day so that I can wear my Rebel Loon t-shirt.
That was me. I don't know how it forgot me from one minute to the next.
The Trump administration has confirmed that ICE agents will appear at TSA checkpoints beginning today.
I don't foresee this working out well.
That's way too much Trumpism way too close to too many financially comfortable white folks. (They generally like to keep that sort of contact sequestered among the 'lower' classes.)
And, later in the day Trump's 'ultimatum' to Iran over the Straight of Hormuz expires. (More Trumpism, but this time at a healthy distance from the rich white folks.)
And…… Now Trump has announced a pause on his escalation and ultimatum over the closing of the Straight of Hormuz. I think we're looking at another Trumpian TACO moment here. Take a few days to know for sure, but that's what it looks like comin' off the blocks.
So much for Iran's "unconditional surrender".
The Trump administration insists that "productive talks" between the Iranian and American governments are going very well, "many points of agreement" says the Trump administration.
Iran, on the other hand, denies that there are any talks under way.
Who's telling the truth? Given the parties in question, it's quite possible the answer is, "neither one".
In any case Trump has chickened out on his threat to Iranian civil infrastructure, for now anyway. He's given himself another five (5) days to find an exit strategy from that threat.
Yes, it also strikes me that the ICE deployment to airports could backfire. Too many people coming face to face with authoritarianism in real life.
Geez, Trump is telling Republicans not to make a deal on the DHS funding unless the SAVE Act is passed.
"Too many people coming face to face with authoritarianism
in real life."
Trump has recognized the risk there. He's decreed that ICE agents must go unmasked in the airports. No doubt he's hoping that will help them to remember to act differently in the new environment than they've been trained to act in the streets. I don't know if he's recognized the risk of protests ICE at the airports against the ICE presence.
(By the way, Steve Bannon has asserted that the ICE deployment to airports is a test run for sending ICE to polling places come the 2026 mid-term elections. TheHill)
________________________________
"Trump is telling Republicans…"
Trump's problem here is that he's pressing the Trumpkan politicians about a bill that's not been sold to his dedicated Trumpkins as a cultural superiority point (no supposed 'wokeness' involved in the voting ID bill) and is not otherwise in their interests (as opposed to being solely in his interest). They've been elected under the current rules and, more importantly, they expect to be reëlected under those rules. Trump needs the "SAVE" act passed specifically because he cannot be reëlected under those rules, so he needs a means to subvert those rules, adopted in time to serve his specific need to quell the next election.
A Democrat, Emily Gregory, has won a state House special election in Florida. The district she won includes Mar-A-Lago.
Trump sent his ballot in by mail.
So far there's been no follow up information on that "valuable present" the Iranians have supposedly gifted to Trump.
But I have read that the Iranians have put out the word--if negotiations do take up again then Trump is to send official government representatives; his personal bag men, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, will not be considered acceptable alternatives.
Stocks started to slide again Thursday, and Trump quickly "granted" yet another extension on his threat to hit Iran's energy infrastructure.
Be interesting to see what happens on the stock exchanges today. He's not gonna be able to hold off a stock slide forever. But he may have done it again this time. If so, he's bought himself ten more days with the Straight of Hormuz blockaded, not what he wants. Not gonna keep the stock slide held off.
The market tumbled 800 points today. It's now in correction territory.
So, Trump's effort to calm the market with a promise has failed this time.
And now he's looking at 10 days of Hormuz being blocked while the markets continue to tank. Not the outcome he was hoping for.
Iran may not get that 10 days.
Today is the No Kings protest. I am hoping for a good turnout.
It was a good turnout.
Trump spent a good portion of Sunday evening trying to happy talk the financial markets. Didn't seem to work. Oil futures kept rising.
I think we can expect the stock market to slide further again today.
(Once Trump loses his ability to happy talk upward movement into the stock market he's unlikely to gain that power back.)
I was reading an article about the protest in St. Paul. The writer said it too was a good turnout, but was worried that people would start to lose focus since ICE had pulled back from Minnesota.
I think that writer under estimates the anger against Trump and his ability to continue to double down on stupid. As the war drags on and prices rise people will be reminded every day.
Another Republican in the House has announced his retirement.
I see they lost an AWACS.
"…they lost an AWACS."
I think it got tagged while sitting on a runway, drone probably.
________________________________
Monday's stock drop was quite modest. (The Dow Jones average actually went up a trifle.) But Trump had to be holding out hope that his happy talk would bolster the markets after last week's performance, and that didn't happen.
Earlier today Trump suggested that American allies might just as well try to "get their own oil", and America would no longer demand opening of the Straight of Hormuz.
The stock market has surged back up on the hint that Trump might declare victory and walk away from the mess he's made, leaving the Straight of Hormuz controlled by Iran.
(Of course, Netanyahu might not yet be willing to call it day--nor the mullahs of Iran for that matter.)
Trump is supposed to be giving an "address to the nation" to "update" their War against Iran tonight at 9:00 pm (EDT). Local broadcast tv doesn't show any signs yet they intend to carry it. But then I can't find any indication that the Trump administration has asked for air time.
Yes, Trump's motto seems to be "I break it, you fix it." Typical Trump mentality.
They are estimating 8 million at the No Kings protest. More than last time, but less then the 10 million they were hoping for.
Gotta give those gas prices time to percolate through the system. Summer would have been better timing. But I suppose they never factored in the start of a war when they picked the date. Or the iffy weather.
The flyby of Kid Rock's home by two military helicopters was something out of a college frat prank. Unprofessional and unbecoming of those pilots. Hegseth's dismissing the investigation even more so. It does not inspire confidence in the abilities of our military.
And now Trump is threatening to withdraw from NATO.
Long time I've thought that American and European views of the value of NATO were distinct. Putin's war against Ukraine brought Europe around to the American view (the pre-Trump American view).
But, now we're operating under the King Trump foreign policy. So perhaps an American withdrawal won't be bad for NATO. (Won't be good for the United States though.)
Which brings me back to a musing I've had about perhaps Greenland entering a closer defense compact with Canada. Their physical proximity suggests its viability, and and they're both founding members of NATO. And it might help protect Greenland from Donald Trump.
In spite of his continued and now almost herculean efforts, his hair swirl is now looking like an old fashioned comb-over.
At some point he may have to go for a hair piece.
It seems the oil markets weren't too impressed with his speech. The price of oil went up right after his speech.
"The price of oil went up right after his speech."
My guess is the stock markets will go the other way. Morning headlines tell me the Asian stock markets fell through the night in concert with the oil prices going up.
So, he didn't convince the gamblers that he's ready to surrender nor that he has a plan to force the Iranians to surrender. He's hoping to last long enough for circumstances to somehow save him. But the markets are looking for something to save them, not him. Nobody's actually got a plan.
Pam Bondi is out.
Supposedly fired for NOT being aggressive enough in persecuting Trump's political enemies. We can expect him to seek out someone who'll be even more aggressive there. (He supposedly wasn't happy about the contributions she made to the PR mess that surrounds the Epstein files either, but he contributed to that mess as well.)
"The president announced Bondi’s exit in a post Thursday on
Truth Social, saying she would ‛be transitioning to a much
needed and important new job in the private sector, to be
announced at a date in the near future.’"
Politico
So, no soft landing for Bondi.
Supposedly fired for NOT being aggressive enough in persecuting Trump's political enemies.
Yes, that seems to be the consensus. Not surprising really. Why do I get this strange feeling that Trump is getting desperate for some major distraction from his latest ef-up, the Iran war?
Probably wouldn't help anyway.
Lately I've been thinking of that line from "The Graduate" where Dustin Hoffman's character is getting advice from someone at a party on what to get into for the future. Plastics were going to be big. Sure nuff, that stuff is everywhere.
Yup, I suspect Trump may be reminded of that.
Iran is saying they shot down a US fighter over Iran. No comment from the US military.
The second crew member of the F15 that crashed in Iran has been rescued. Kudos to the US military for their amazing effort in recovering him, snd to the pilot who survived without being captured by the Iranians.
Despite the incompetent leadership of Trump and Hegseth.
I suspect there will be a book and movie in the future, just like for the SEAL team member rescued in Afghanistan.
It's been said that the movie took substantial liberties with the truth. Politico
I don't think I ever saw the movie. I just read the book. But the Politico article seems to raise some questions about some of that too.
It seems that communication was a problem as well as inexperience.
But in the Afghanistan case and this recent incident in Iran it is clear that the risks are very high and the ability of the survivor on the ground to evade capture until help can arrive is a bit of a miracle.
I believe they lost 2 aircraft in Iran when they were damaged and they decided to destroy them to keep them out of Iranian hands.
This is why it is so crucial for our civilian leadership to be careful and judicious in their decision to put our military in harms way. It is not a reality TV show.
Trump's last stated "deadline" for Iran to "open" the Straight of Hormuz had originally been set for today, around 5/6 pm Eastern time. As of this morning he's moved it back to tomorrow at 8:00 pm Eastern. Only thing I can think of is he doesn't want to open the trading day on the New York Stock exchange with a general collapse. Perhaps he's figuring to sell some stocks short and wants another day of making happy talk 'til he gets his sales consummated.
It appears that Pakistan has proposed a temporary cease-fire between the United States and Iran. Reuters Iran has already rejected the proposition.
But this may have something to do with Trump's extension of his threats into Tuesday night.
Someone told me today that he thought Vance was trying to distance himself from the war. Possibly because he has hopes of running for president in 2028 and thinks it really isn't a good situation to be attached to. He might be right.
Iran rejects the plan so of course Trump does as well. Why would Iran accept it when they have no problem keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed for those ships connected to their enemies? They are letting through ships that have connections with them. As for Trump's threats to attack civilian infrastructure, since when has the Iranian regime really cared about its civilians?
No, the only thing that might bother the Iranians is if they couldn't get ships through the Strait. If possible I would look at blocking the Strait to any ships connected to Iran.
"…he thought Vance was trying to distance himself from the
war."
Vance has been keeping a distance since it started. Even Trump has remarked on it.
"I would look at blocking the Strait to any ships connected
to Iran."
That would further raise the global price of oil, which would further spook the stock market, the prospect of which spooks the Hell outta Trump.
Not if the oil were seized, sold, and the money put in trust for the future use of the Iranian people. Of course, that might be considered piracy. But I doubt that would stop Trump. At least it didn't in Venezuela. And we are at war.
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