It seems that Vladimir Putin is intent on a rather large display on May 9th, Victory Day. This is the day that Nazi Germany surrendered after their defeat in World War II. This is the day the Soviet forces took control of Berlin. There is no disputing the fact that the people of Russia fought bravely and sacrificed a great deal in World War II, against a foe that was intent on world domination.
But, and this is where a word of caution comes in, Vladimir Putin would seem to have everyone believe that the victory over Nazi Germany was the Soviet Union's alone. It was not. It was the combined efforts of many countries, including the United States. And it included Lend Lease. Yes, you may have heard about this as it has recently been in the news regarding Ukraine. But it was first thought of during the early stages of the war in Europe against Germany. A war that we were not yet involved in. In order to help those countries who were at war with Germany the United States agreed to lend/lease military equipment and other things to those countries, which included the Soviet Union. It was pivotal to the course of that war.
Lend Lease and the Soviet Union
So on this Victory Day it might serve the Russian people well to understand that now that help is being provided to Ukraine to try to repel a murderous aggressor, the Russian Federation, that has invaded their land. Vladimir Putin has lied for the reason of Russia's invasion and he has been working tooth and nail to keep that secret. And he is lying if he says that the Soviet Union alone won WWII.
A video summary of WWII Lend Lease:
The Senate, and later the House, passes Lend Lease for Ukraine in 2022.
This time Russia is not on the side of right, but Germany is.
Slava Ukraini
123 comments:
Heróyam sláva.
I haven't heard anything about a hit on a Russian sub.
I also haven't seen anything Putin can spin as a glorious victory for Russia's 'Victory Day'. In fact, I'm having trouble coming up with any scenario that Putin will be able to spin as a 'win' for Russia or for himself.
Even if he manages to occupy, as a consolation prize, the eastern and southern Ukrainian oblasts that he's set his eyes on in 'Plan B' (and that's looking increasingly unlikely), he's put Russia into permanent pariah status with the Western World. (The continued tolerance of Russian aggression by their fellow Third World powers--e.g. India, Brazil, South Africa, etc. isn't gonna get Russia any particular slack among European nations.) His bid to intimidate Europe into letting him reconstitute the Soviet Empire seems quite irredeemably blown now.
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Putin was his customary blowhard self in his speech for the annual Victory Day parade across Red Square in front of the Kremlin. But, he didn't announce any of the anticipated new initiatives like a wide-ranging military draft or a widened war against Ukraine. The Ukrainians also didn't try to drop any cruise missiles on his parade. And the weather was overcast--clouds low and thick enough to force the canceling of the customary fly-overs by Russian military aircraft. All things considered, a rather unremarkable Victory Day Parade this year.
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And, for the 37th consecutive day--the Russians are on the verge of finally overrunning Mariupol.
That'll be a small Putin victory: Russia has even announced preliminary plans to reopen the seaport of Mariupol. It'll need to be rebuilt from scratch, and, of course there are still those Ukrainian Guards down in the warrens under the steel plant, about four miles from the old port. But, Putin's thinking it's gonna be his soon. And he expects to start using the seaport within the month for moving easy stuff.
Turns out the official Russian explanation of the canceled fly-over was bullshit, as was the official weather report for Moscow. It wasn't cloudy with a low ceiling. It was blue-sky, open and clear to the heavens. But there was no fly-over. NYT (Various explanations have been proposed.)
The first that comes to mind is they are busy elsewhere. The second is that they had other uses for the fuel.
It seems the Russian ambassador to Poland wasn't well received at a wreath laying ceremony to the Soviet soldiers who fought in WWII. He was doused with red paint, but otherwise unhurt.
Why on earth would Russia use hypersonic missiles to hit a shopping mall?
Because his Air Force is under-performing rather badly. He doesn't wanna send 'em in close enough to hit the very stationary targets with more conventional air-to-ground ammo, so he's using the high cost Kinzhal air-to-ground hypersonic missiles to give his planes some distance from the Ukrainians' air defenses (probably fired on Odessa from Russia in fact, or far out over the Black Sea).
Wonder how many of those missiles he has? I would think that if he really believed there was a chance of war with NATO he would save them.
Off topic: It looks like Elon Musk has decided that he doesn't want to buy Twitter after all.
FoxNews
"Wonder how many of those missiles he has?"
I've been wondering the same thing.
As for war with NATO; even Putin now knows that'd be suicidal. His forces are preforming abysmally against Ukrainian troops who're armed with antique Soviet equipment (which is proving to be easily a match against his best and newest Russian built equipment). No way in Hell he wants his soldiers to have to go up against NATO-standard arms and equipment. He's seen what we did to Saddam's best, easily the equal to his best (even he has to admit that now). And, since it's pretty much up to him whether or not he jumps out there and makes that mistake… Well, he's already decided to not do that.
What he has apparently decided to do is to grind out a 'win' in the Donbas region, where Russia's numerical superiority in battle tanks and self-propelled artillery (look like tanks under another name) gives the Russians an advantage on the open fields (long as they don't get stuck in the mud). He's gonna try to win a war of attrition there and across the Black Sea Coast to the south, where his ability to shell the shore from the sea gives him another advantage.
Early on it looked like the Ukrainians might, quite surprisingly, simply outfight the Russians, even on the open grain fields where the Russians held specific advantage, but as time wears on the Ukrainian soldiers wear out, and the Russian hardware advantages are beginning to win out on the battlefields.
The Russians are now grinding out costly and bloody advances in Donbas and along the shore. (How long that keeps up is anybody's guess, but the Russians are winning that battle for now.)
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Putin is giving thought to reopening the Azovstal steelworks to supply steel for repairs of his military equipment, and for his local puppet governments as well. First gonna havta wipe out those Ukrainian Guard units still down under the factory. But, he's makin' plans there.
(How long that keeps up is anybody's guess, but the Russians are winning that battle for now.)
As a counter point...it does appear that the Russian people may not all be sheople after all. There are some indicators that there are those who will stand up against Putin's War. Whether they will have any impact on others in Russia is anyone's guess.
Putin is giving thought to reopening the Azovstal steelworks to supply steel for repairs of his military equipment,...
Obviously the Ukrainian turncoat did not get that message. He was just saying the other day that he would make Mariupol a "resort" on the Black Sea sans Azovstal.
Oh, just in case...for anyone passing by who may not know..
Turncoat = traitor
I think it goes back to our Revolutionary War? You may know, Lee, it's origins. It may be older than that.
It goes back at least to Oliver Cromwell, English Civil War (mid-1600s). Some argue that the 'coat' refers to a a coat of arms, and that it goes back further than Cromwell.
I suspected it was not original to the first 13 colonies. So much came from elsewhere.
Hmmm...that makes me want to pick up the first book in Hilary Mantel's trilogy, "Wolf Hall". I know, different Cromwell, but a relative.
As best I understand it, there's no provision for ejecting a member nation (i.e. Hungary) from the European Union. What I don't understand is why there's no move to adopt such a provision. (Marcus' long stated adoration of Viktor Orbán notwithstanding.) Or, at least, to invoke the provision which allows for a 'suspension' of Hungary's voting privileges.
Ukraine has consolidated its hold on Kharkiv and its environs/suburbs/villages in the northeast of the country. In the Donbas region, the Russians either have or have not secured a crossing of the Siverskyi River, depending on how the tide of battle has most recently swung. Either way the Russians have lost better than a full battalion trying to hold a crossing, with notably limited success so far.
And the battle for position along the southern seashore continues unabated.
It appears that the pontoon bridges the Russians have been building are exploding. Usually it seems to happen when there is traffic on them.
Snake island remains popular this time of year.
Meanwhile Finland and Sweden are still considering joining NATO and Russia continues to say that a decision to do so is a threat to them. Because, you know, they can.
Ahh, it looks like Finland is taking the plunge.
When a Russian cargo ship comes knocking at your port door and you know it is filled with pilfered grain from Ukraine can't the authorities of the country detain the ship? Obviously, this would not apply to Syria which is a Russian puppet, but other's perhaps?
Your question appears to assume a burning desire on the part of 'the authorities' to detain the ship.
Perhaps you'll find that desire to be hotter and more pronounced among the locals when the Russian ship you mention docks in Minneapolis.
I've been reading that Russian commodities shipping isn't really down a whole lot. 20%--25% maybe. It seems that purchases that were being made by northern European buyers have been getting redirected to southern Europe (Italy is mentioned especially but not exclusively) and to Turkey, India, and other non-European customers more than merely eager to snap up some bargains in a buyers' market.
Folks probably need to adjust their thinking to the reality that a lot of the world just ain't all that upset 'bout Russia's desire to reconstitute their Northern Eurasian Empire. They figure, not being resident of northern Europe, that it won't hurt them directly, and they got no particular sympathy for Northern Europe as a general matter anyway. Bunch of rich white folks living there. A lot of the world don't give a damn 'bout the fortunes of rich white folks.
(Russian imports are down a lot more 'cause the stuff Russia wants to import is mostly made by those rich white northern European countries the rest of the Russia's customer base don't give a damn 'bout.)
"HELSINKI — Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said
Friday that his country is ‛not favorable’ toward Finland and
Sweden joining NATO, indicating Turkey could use its
membership in the Western military alliance to veto moves to
admit the two countries.
‛We are following developments concerning Sweden and
Finland, but we are not of a favorable opinion,’ Erdogan told
reporters."
AssociatedPress
In my own opinion, Turkey comes in pretty near head of the list of whom should not be members of NATO. But, nobody checks with me.
Your question appears to assume a burning desire on the part of 'the authorities' to detain the ship.
There are those who have turned away the ships. Confiscation was just a step above that.
A lot of the world don't give a damn 'bout the fortunes of rich white folks.
Unless they are useful.
Which brings up another subject. So many people seem to be upset with the West's support for Ukraine, believing it to be a snub to other people's conflicts. I find that odd logic given the lack of interest on the part of some in the world to Ukraine. Really, why would they expect the other countries to come to their aid if they do not do so either? And there are always those who complain if we do take an interest in conflicts in other countries. There upset seems a little hypocritical.
"Their" upset...
"Confiscation was just a step above that."
I believe your analysis to be faulty. Sending the ship away means the problem goes away. Confiscating the ship means the problem stays, and continues to be a problem. These two outcomes are on entirely opposite ends of the problem resolution spectrum--not "just a step" away from each other. Rather, different in the extreme--couldn't get more different.
"Their upset seems a little hypocritical."
And… ??
_________________________
(Although, it might be worth remembering that these are the same hypocrits whose 'refugee' admissions as a group to the United States you routinely champion in the apparently misbegotten belief that they will suddenly begin to give a damn about the fortunes of America's rich white folks, or even give a damn about the prospects of continued democratic governance in America; this after you've invited them to settle here permanently. I, on the other hand, still hold to the notion that we should admit permanent immigrants only on an individual basis; each one gaining admission on their own merits, and only after being looked over individually for compatibility with our national asperations and traditions.)
It's a little early to be declaring a trend, but it seems to me that the recent Russian advances in the mid/lower Donbas region have stalled out--even started evaporating away. And the long-range artillery that the Ukrainians desperately needed are only now coming onto the field of battle. Many analysts are predicting that the next couple of months will determine the success or failure of Putin's 'Plan B', reduced vision offensive against Ukraine. And preliminary signs are encouraging for the good guys there.
And, for the 42nd consecutive day--the Russians are on the verge of finally overrunning Mariupol.
The long knives are coming out in the Kremlin:
"A former commander for Moscow-backed separatist forces in
Ukraine on Friday accused Russian Defense Minister Sergei
Shoigu of ‛criminal negligence’ over Moscow’s stop-start
military campaign in Ukraine.
"‛I have no grounds to accuse [Shoigu] of treason, but I would
suspect it,’ said Igor Girkin, who went by Igor Strelkov when he
led pro-Russian forces eight years ago in the breakaway region
of Donetsk, in a video interview.
"Girkin warned last month that Russia faces a drawn-out
conflict with high casualties and possible defeat if the
authorities in Moscow do not scale up mobilization. Russia’s
future depends on winning the war, he said at the time.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin’s forces have wreaked havoc
on Ukraine since the Feb. 24 invasion. But they have so far
failed to topple the government in Kyiv or capture major
cities. These battlefield setbacks may be creeping up on
Shoigu, a longtime Putin ally. While there are no public signs
of fracturing between the leaders, Shoigu faces pressure at
home to save face and strengthen Russia’s influence in the
eastern Donbas region."
WaPo
And…
"Snake island remains popular this time of year." ↑↑
"The Pentagon also said that Ukraine is attempting to take
back Snake Island, off the coast of the Ukraine-Romania
border. Russia seized it early in the invasion, but satellite
imagery released by Maxar on Thursday appeared to show
the aftermath of missile attacks on a Russian military landing
craft near the island. The images show smoke rising from
locations struck recently by munitions, the company said."
WaPo
I just came in from tilling the garden. I can tell I'm out of shape. Or maybe I am feeling tired from the booster shot. I might have to nap instead of finishing the lawn. I was trying the no mow May thing, but my neighbor cut his and I had to mow the strip that abuts his. Otherwise I just look scruffy.
Sending the ship away means the problem goes away.
The old out of sight out of mind thing. Well, maybe, but I suspect that the longer this goes on the more it will affect even those who stick their heads in the sand
They may have to pick a side eventually.
...if the
authorities in Moscow do not scale up mobilization
Might be an issue, especially if on the streets of Moscow young (fighting age ) men have started defining an orc as a rapist and murderer who loots washing machines.
Censorship is really hard in the internet era.
This is about as 'in-your-face' as the Ukrainians can get right now.
"After Ukraine’s military drove Russia from Ukraine’s second
-largest city, Kharkiv, a Ukrainian military official announced
the launch Saturday of a counteroffensive aimed at denying
the Russians a key staging area just north of the Donbas
region.
"The head of Kharkiv’s regional military administration said
Ukrainian forces had launched a counteroffensive on Russian
forces around the northeastern city of Izium. The city is key to
Russian efforts to try to broadly encircle Ukraine’s forces in the
east of the country.
"But as Moscow’s forces around Kharkiv are driven back,
military analysts say that Russia likely will fight to keep open
critical supply routes running through the region."
NYT
"For weeks, Russia has been using Izium as a staging area for
a broader offensive in the eastern Donbas region, trying to
drive south from the city as other Russian forces push north
from Donetsk to broadly encircle tens of thousands of
Ukrainian soldiers defending the front lines.
"But Russia’s loss of territory in recent days around Kharkiv,
Ukraine’s second-largest city, and a fierce Ukrainian
counteroffensive around Izium have led some military
analysts to believe that a broad encirclement is slipping out of
Russia’s reach."
***
"Because the Kharkiv region borders Russia, the Ukrainian
forces were in a position on Saturday to disrupt the Russian
supply lines to Izium, which would deal a blow to Russia’s
plans to encircle Ukrainian troops farther south, the analysts
said.
"Ukraine’s offensive in the region, Mr. Synegubov said, was
designed to thwart any Russian advance on two key targets
south of Izium: the towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
"Russia continued to try and break through Ukrainian
defensive lines south of Izium along a semicircular front line
stretching to the southeastern city of Donetsk. They have
pummeled towns and villages with wave after wave of
artillery barrages and fought to surround two cities in the
Luhansk region: Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.
"This is where much of the war of attrition is playing out…
***
"President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine vowed on Friday
night that his forces would recapture Russian-occupied cities
such as Kherson, Melitopol, Berdyansk and Mariupol,
portending a long conflict.
"‛The gradual liberation of the Kharkiv region proves that we
will not leave anyone to the enemy,’ he said."
NYT
Major troop movements across the flat farm fields of the Donbas can't be hidden.
They announced it in advance anyway, publicly, very publicly.
That was an open challenge to Putin and to his military--they intended all the world should see them tellin' the Russians what's comin'. They intended for Putin to know that the whole world had seen the gauntlet thrown in his face.
"Get yourselves ready you sons-of-bitches; 'cause we are comin' for ya." That's what that was about.
They intended to make certain it is indeed a very public whuppin' comin'. "Everybody watch this." That's what that was about.
Okay, talkin' tough then. Now they gotta make good on it.
I don't know the strength of the Ukrainian military in numbers, but it occurs to me that while the Russians are drawn away from Mariupol it might not be a bad time to open another counter-offensive down south too.
I wonder if those long range howitzers we sent could hit a ship? It sounds like they did get one with an anti-tank weapon. Those Ukrainians are resourceful.
This is about as 'in-your-face' as the Ukrainians can get right now.
I thought Zelensky saying they would hold next year's Eurovision contest in Mariupol was pretty good too.
I hope it comes to pass.
"I wonder if those long range howitzers we sent could hit a ship?"
I suppose they could. More to the point for the fight in the Donbas, they can hit back at the Russian artillery. Our stuff has a slightly longer range and superior "return fire" capabilities for hitting back at the site sending shells against the Ukrainians.
"I wonder if those long range howitzers we sent could hit a ship?"
Russians been wondering about that too. They're avoiding a test case. They've taken to shelling on-shore civilian targets with hyperspeed missiles fired from submarines. Keeping their big boats back out of range of most everything the Ukrainians got (everything they got now anyway).
This has the added consequence of crippling Russia's ability to launch any amphibious assaults against Odessa--so there's that price being paid as well.
I just finished watching Fareed Zakaria's special on Vladimir Putin. It was rather interesting. I suspect that his conclusion on why Putin invaded Ukraine now may be right. It is not Putin who has changed it is circumstances. In the beginning Putin needed the West's help because Russia was bankrupt after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Now Russia is awash in petro dollars and his thinking is about recreating the Russian Empire. The West seemed in disarray, so why not?
Putin has always been a manipulator.
Keeping their big boats back out of range of most everything the Ukrainians got (everything they got now anyway).
Maybe we need to give them something designed to go after amphibious craft.
"Zelensky saying they would hold next year's Eurovision contest in
Mariupol was pretty good too."
Yeah, the audacity of simple audacity. Unmitigated. Served straight up.
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"The West seemed in disarray, so why not?"
Even Zacharia tends to forget his history on occasion and try to explain everything in terms of what he's writing about today. Or what he's planning to write about tomorrow. He needs to get over that.
"The past is never dead. It's not even past.”
William Faulkner ― Requiem for a Nun
The West was in worse disarray when Trump was Presiding in Washington D.C. Trump had 'em all in an uproar and he was doing Putin's dirty work of weakening NATO. So, Putin let him run with it.
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"
Napolean Bonaparte (probably apocryphal)
Putin remembers all the stories about Napolean. He also recognized the mistake that was President Trump. Didn't want to interrupt that. Then came Biden and the start on rebuilding the Western alliance. Putin wanted to put a stop to that for sure. Time to hit before the damage from Trump got fixed.
________________________________
"Maybe we need to give them something designed to go after
amphibious craft."
Amphibious craft a/k/a landing craft have to close on the beach; short range stuff is adequate. Rockets, mortars, short-range artillery, small arms fire. Remember what happened to our guys on Omaha Beach on D-Day. The Ukrainians got what they need to shoot up the landing craft and the men in them (especially if the landing craft have to make long runs to get to the beach without covering fire from big guns on bigger ships).
________________________________
American military analysts are suggesting that Russia has already cut way back on Putin's ambitions in eastern Ukraine. Supposedly they are now limiting the goals to taking the Luhansk Oblask (Luhansk People's Republic in Putin parlance) and whatever parts of the Donetsk Oblask that the Donetsk People's Republic actually already holds ('bout half). This will supposedly leave them a dream of taking the southern sea shore across to Moldova and Romania. (Yeah, right. The Ukrainian forces will simply follow them south. If the Russian ships come in to provide cover we'll quick get the answers to Lynnette's questions about what the Ukrainians can do to Russian ships of the line in the tight quarters that are the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.)
"…to many Russians, defeat in the war in Ukraine remains inconceivable.
"The majority of Russians, especially the older generations and the
working classes, believe state propaganda, which fills their television
screens with images of seemingly unstoppable columns of Russian tanks
advancing through Ukrainian countryside…."
NYT
I would remind the readers that just this sort of deceit lay at the heart of the rise of Hitler in Germany just 90 years ago. The Germans 'back home' had been fed an unbroken string of lies about how their soldiers were triumphing on the battlefields. This belief that Germany was on the verge of triumph (until suddenly Germany surrendered--without explanation back home) enabled the creation of a faerie tale history to explain it.
The damned Jews did it; Jews, and Communists, and 'Liberals', but especially the Jews. It was a stab in the back from inside the Reich and this betrayal became well known among the faithful who told the story back and forth among themselves; thus the dolchstoßlegende was born. And so the patriotic Germans rallied around a true German patriot, and Adolf got himself an army.
There may be even uglier things to follow Putin as Great Leader of All the Russians in the years yet to come. (Although, the uglier things will likely be limited to a supporting role for the ambitions of the Chinese Emperor, maybe a step up from North Korean status.)
"‛After weeks spent fretting over what would happen if Russia crushed
Ukraine, Western European leaders are now worried about what might
happen if Ukraine actually wins. … One big concern is that a Ukrainia win
could destabilize Russia, making it even more unpredictable and putting
a normalization of energy links further out of reach. That’s why some
western European capitals quietly favor a ‘face-saving’ resolution to the
conflict, even if it costs Ukraine some territory.‛
"The leaders of France, Germany and Italy are all stressing a ceasefire
and peace deal at precisely the moment when Ukraine has reversed the
tide."
Politico
I have suggested before that the United States should open discussions about withdrawing from NATO. If they go through with this plan I'd be inclined to start thinking about that possibility once again. It may just be that our priorities don't match up well enough with the priorities of the European Union sufficiently to support a commitment to a joint defense treaty, not since the fall of the Soviet Union.
Additional reporting on the above ↑↑ Politico.EU
Then came Biden and the start on rebuilding the Western alliance. Putin wanted to put a stop to that for sure. Time to hit before the damage from Trump got fixed.
Yes, he wanted to take advantage of that window of opportunity.
Amphibious craft a/k/a landing craft...
Poor choice of words on my part, I meant subs. They seem to be doing quite well against the Raptors.
This will supposedly leave them a dream of taking the southern sea shore across to Moldova and Romania.
I would find this area of more critical importance to Ukraine and would prefer to see Russia removed from there. All of Ukraine, actually, but that is Ukraine's call.
If the Russian ships come in to provide cover we'll quick get the answers to Lynnette's questions about what the Ukrainians can do to Russian ships of the line in the tight quarters that are the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.)
I've heard a rumor that the have pulled back and are "regrouping". That could just be "fog of war" though.
"they" have re-grouped.
That’s why some
western European capitals quietly favor a ‘face-saving’ resolution to the
conflict, even if it costs Ukraine some territory.‛
It's called appeasement and was tried before. I would try to avoid that this time around.
Having said that, I don't think they are far off the assessment that the Russian Federation could collapse, similar to the Soviet Union.
"The majority of Russians, especially the older generations and the
working classes, believe state propaganda, which fills their television
screens with images of seemingly unstoppable columns of Russian tanks
advancing through Ukrainian countryside…."
I think that the majority of Russians outside the cities fall into this category. The better educated and younger city dwellers are a different story. And, perhaps, those who have served, and are currently serving, in the Russian military may understand that this is not the case.
There may be even uglier things to follow Putin as Great Leader of All the Russians in the years yet to come. (Although, the uglier things will likely be limited to a supporting role for the ambitions of the Chinese Emperor, maybe a step up from North Korean status.)
I have always thought this a serious possibility. Unless, they can find a Navalny. A lot of Russians do not want war.
It is interesting how the split between country and city defines people's beliefs and politics. You see the same in both the United States and Russia. Perhaps both economic opportunities as well as diversity play a role.
Btw, I find it interesting that Shoigu took Austin's call.
Both Finland and Sweden already meet many of the requirements for membership, which include having a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy; treating minority populations fairly; committing to resolve conflicts peacefully; the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and committing to democratic civil-military relations and institutions.
With regard to requirements to join NATO, does this sound like Turkey?
So it looks like Erdogan is going to throw a monkey wrench in the inclusion of Finland and Sweden into NATO. His excuse is rather thin in my view. I wonder if there is another motive?
Is there any way to kick Turkey out of NATO?
Many (Most?) international treaty organizations have provisions for the suspension or termination of members' participation for material breaches of the treaty or charter. NATO was formed without any such provision, nothing on suspension, termination of participation or the outright expulsion of a rogue member.
For quite a long time the United States has taken the position that this means there is, in fact, no limit on the power of the organization to kick a nuisance member out of the organization. All the rest of them gotta do is agree to do it.
Not surprisingly, Turkey claims that there is no way to kick Turkey out of NATO because there was no such rule ever adopted.
My guess is a good solid majority would carry the question if it came up to a vote. We'd probably want to see a supermajority to make the rule for the first time. Two thirds, three fifths, three quarters, something along those lines. (Probably wouldn't get it either--bunch of wimps in NATO.)
It appears that the Ukrainian government has prevailed upon the National Guard unit fighting out of the Azovstal factory to surrender. (It wasn't entirely clear, ever, that the so-called 'Azov Battalion' would follow a surrender order, but, after 45 days, it seems they have done just that.)
"Btw, I find it interesting that Shoigu took Austin's call."
There is rampant speculation (prediction? is there a difference?) that Shoigu is being set up to take the fall if it keeps going bad for Russia. For that, he has to be seen making some of the current mistakes, can't blame the continued screw ups on the opening errors, not with the audience Putin has assembled for himself. So, Shoigu is brought back in for photo-ops and miserable jobs like taking that call.
Putin is known for going easy on scapegoats who bear the blame willingly. The get publicly chastised and mortified, but they get to keep their bank accounts and real estate (if they're quiet about it), and their family gets to keep its money and status among Russia's elites. Only the scapegoat loses face, he saves his family from sharing in that if accepts his new scapegoat job without resistance. That's been Putin's model anyway--this is rather bigger than the other screw ups. So, maybe not this time.
But the word is going around that Shoigu is expected to accept the new role willingly, considering the alternative.
The Kremlin is calling the fall of the holdout in the Azovstal plant a "mass surrender" in celebration of Russia's great victory over the Alamo of Ukraine (finally starved 'em out).
I already celebrated the symbolic victory when they held out past the May 9ᵗʰ "Victory Day"/Putin Day celebration. That was way more than I had expected of them (or just anybody else for that matter).
From CNN's website:
In rare public criticism of the conduct of Russia's military operations in Ukraine, a former senior Russian officer has warned on state television that the situation will get worse.
"Let's not drink 'information tranquilizers,' because sometimes information is spread about some moral or psychological breakdown of Ukraine's armed forces, as if they are nearing a crisis of morale or a fracture," retired Col. Mikhail Khodarenok said on Monday’s edition of Rossiya One’s 60 Minutes show. "None of this is close to reality."
Despite pushback from the show’s presenter, Khodarenok said that Ukraine could arm one million people.
"Considering that European aid will come into full effect and one million armed Ukrainian soldiers can join the fight, we need to see this reality of the near future, and we need to consider that in our operational and strategic calculations. The situation for us will frankly get worse," he said.
Khodarenok, a regular commentator in Russian media, also commented on Russia's broader isolation.
"Let's look at this situation as a whole from our overall strategic position," he said. "Let’s not swing missiles in Finland's direction – this just looks ridiculous. The biggest problem with our military and political situation is that we are in total geopolitical isolation. And the whole world is against us — even if we don’t want to admit it."
Khodarenok warned before the invasion started that it would be more difficult than many anticipated to wage war in Ukraine.
In an article in February, he said, "the degree of hatred (which, as you know, is the most effective fuel for armed struggle) in the neighboring republic towards Moscow is frankly underestimated. No one will meet the Russian army with bread, salt and flowers in Ukraine."
Expert claims that Russian forces will defeat Ukraine in a short period of time "have no serious grounds," he had said.
The emphasis on the one sentence is mine. He was right. And I do not see that sentiment getting any different in the Ukraine of the future. The man who was buried alive with his 2 brothers, who died, will hate Russia forever. The same goes for many others.
I already celebrated the symbolic victory when they held out past the May 9ᵗʰ "Victory Day"/Putin Day celebration. That was way more than I had expected of them (or just anybody else for that matter).
They are truly brave people who held out beyond expectations against a far larger force. They fought for their country, their families & friends and their homes. This should always be remembered.
Remember the Alamo, remember Mariupol.
There is rampant speculation (prediction? is there a difference?) that Shoigu is being set up to take the fall if it keeps going bad for Russia.
Everyone knows who is at fault, Putin. He may try to wiggle out of it, but we know.
This is and always will be Putin's War.
I was back and forth about the better analogy--our Alamo always seemed to me to be the closest analogy, with Thermopylae in a fairly distant second place. The Europeans, or course, tend to see Grosny, or a few with a line of sight that extends beyond Europe would notice the similarity to Kobanî.
I'm about settled on the Alamo analogy, Sam Houston getting time to collect his army to eventually capture Santa Anna himself.
I'm surprised Mikhail Khodarenok is still on the loose. That program aired Monday night, Kremlin time--over 48 hours ago. And the retired general has not yet been arrested.
Well, 36 hours ago, plus.
Looks like the Russians may have reneged on their agreed terms for the surrender of the Ukrainians at the Azovstal holdout. Or, the mediators, the United Nations and the International Red Cross, may have misrepresented affairs with their assurances that the Russians had agreed to treatment of the as POWs. Hard to say which; neither would be surprising. But, it looks like the Russians very well may put their new Ukrainian prisoners on trial as 'war criminals' (as if they could have somehow engaged in war crimes against Russians from their defensive position within the warren of tunnels under the Azovstal steel plant.)
The Ukrainian government may come to regret having ordered the survivors to give up the fight. (There'll be political blame--I don't see that Zelenskyy had much in the way of practical options other than to hope that the UN and the Red Cross could get Russian compliance with the Geneva Conventions, but that was probably a forlorn hope from the beginning.)
Word's going around Washington that some of the members of the European Union are eager to surrender to Viktor Orbán's block on any E.U. agreement to ban Russian energy imports. Seems he's gathering support within the E.U. for keeping Russian energy flowing to Europe and European money flowing to Russia, rather than facing their united wrath. WaPo
(Once again I would suggest that American and European views on the value of resistance to foreign oppression are sufficiently divergent as to call into question our continued guarantees to 'joint defense' and continued involvement in NATO.)
It is never good to trust the Russians. But I agree that Velensky did not have a good choice.
However, if the Russians do put those soldiers on trial for war crimes in their usual tit for tat type of childish behavior as a punishment for the trials to cime against their own soldiers they will be creating martyrs. The Ukrainen soldiers will be in a sense continuing their fight.
Seems he's gathering support within the E.U. for keeping Russian energy flowing to Europe and European money flowing to Russia, rather than facing their united wrath.
Like Trump, Orban was always a useful tool for Putin.
But I wouldn't give up hope yet on NATO.
Meanwhile, back in China, it does appear that the plane that crashed in a vertical dive was intentionally crashed be one of the pilots. But we kind of figured that.
Yes, annoying typos as a result of typing on a tiny screen.
I didn't bother mentioning my own typos.
"But I wouldn't give up hope yet on NATO."
I haven't give up hope ― yet. But, we keep appeasing the Euroweenies and we'll run out of hope long before we run out of demands from the Euroweenies.
I therefore think it's time to bring the subject up, for serious discussion, in a less confrontational atmosphere than will prevail when the Euroweenies start making demands overtly on behalf of Putin's Russia. (Or on behalf of the Russia of whomever is Putin's even worse successor.)
…"annoying typos as a result of typing on a tiny screen."
A supplemental large-sized keyboard (in reserve) is worth the minor cost.
Oh, and just in case the most recent example has gone unrecognized… Europe can handle Russia militarily if they wanted to. They could do it handily. They don't need us to guarantee their survival against a potentially continent dominating government based in Moscow. They just want us to keep picking up their tab is what they mostly want.
Interesting news...
The Russian soldier on trial for war crimes pled guilty.
About 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been evacuated from Azovstal steel plant. But not the leaders of that battalion.
Madison Cawthorn lost in the GOP primary. One wingnut gone, many more to go.
Wasn't he the guy who said the GOP elected officials were engaging in orgies?
Yes, he was the guy who was alleging orgies and cocaine use among GOP officials, but I think it was party officials and official moneygrubbers who were the targets of his charges (not so much elected officials).
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We now have an answer for why Retired Russian Col. Mikhail Khodaryonok wasn't in jail already for his rather frank 'assessment' of Russia's War against Ukraine. He's been persuaded to go back out on-air and withdraw his unfavorable remarks. WaPo
I saw that. I had read that there was speculation that his original assessment was a sign they were thinking of replacing Putin. Apparently that is not the case.
"… a sign they were thinking of replacing Putin…" (?)
Think so do ya? Well, maybe not.
Putin has been diligent during his twenty plus year reign over Russia. He has systematically removed any significant challengers to his position at the head of the Russian government/mafia--whether they were insiders/allies with the Putin organization or 'reformers' hoping to replace him from outside his organization. That's been his number one actual domestic achievement--he's killed 'em all, except the ones he's driven into exile (some to be killed in exile), frightened into silence, or imprisoned long term on trumped up charges. There is nobody available to fill his place.
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Russian emissaries have been touring the newly secured ruins of Mariupol and laying the grounds for the Russian annexation of the southern Ukrainian sea shore across to the west as far a Kherson. The Ukrainians have been simultaneously claiming that support for Russia, among the 'Russian Speaking' population is pretty damn slim. (The evidence on that question seems to me to be contradictory at times.) I'm thinking that annexation by Russia of the southern shores will soon 'nuff reveal the true feelings of the native population.
(There are also claims by the Ukrainians that the Russians have stolen 400,000 tonnes of grain and intend to create another artificial famine in the Russian-occupied Ukraine--on account of the Russians are kinda pissed off that the Ukrainians didn't greet them with flowers. We'll have to wait and see 'bout that as well.)
There is nobody available to fill his place.
I don't think that's ever stopped those who are intent on ending an unwanted government. But I do tend to agree that Putin has burrowed his way deep into the depths of the Russian government, just like a cancer. He would be very difficult to get rid of. Unless, of course, he really is sick or has an unfortunate accident. I wouldn't hold my breath on either of those things.
Couple of wandering around notes on Putin's War Against Ukraine….
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The Ukrainian Foreign Minister has said over the weekend that NATO has been basically useless to Ukraine in its fight for survival against Putin's Russia. He wasn't badmouthing the assistance they've gotten from the European Union and from the United States (and Canada, and others), but he said that NATO, as an institution, has been worthless in their assistance. (Just a mention on account of I'm still thinking we should rethink our involvement in NATO.)
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People keeping an eye on Russian battle tactics will have noticed even more evidence that brutality against an enemy's civilian population is a central pillar of the Russian war-making style. I'm guessing they think it'll terrify their enemies, perhaps cause them to stand down--to surrender. Doesn't seem to work out that way, but they keep trying it. The Russians seem to want to sport a reputation for brutality and to go to unnecessary lengths to cultivate just such a reputation.
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It looks to me like a good portion of the region known as 'the Donbas' is emptying out, depopulating. The civilian populations are withdrawing either to the west, Ukrainian held territory, or pulling back further into Russian held towns in the "People's Republics" controlled from Moscow. Both sides seem to be getting ready for set piece slug-fest, artillery battles waged to the destruction of one side or the other. I'm wondering when that'll fire up towards a fiery settlement, or whether it'll instead just 'track' up slowly, and up, and up, and up, as the two sides bring their more and more of their artillery and ammo into the trenches they've already begun to dig. It is beginning to look to me like Putin's greatly diminished 'Plan B' for victory is gonna settle into a search for a winning position in a big-gun shoot-out in the destroyed rural lands of eastern Ukraine. All while Putin's military forces are slaughtering as many Ukrainian civilians as they can hide and destroying as much of Ukraine as they can reach.
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By the way, word's going around that Putin couldn't let it go and is back to micro-managing the tactical maneuvers within the Ukrainian battlefield again. Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov, the notorious 'Butcher of Syria', tapped to serve as theatre field commander for the Ukrainian battlefield, has been marginalized back down into an errand-boy, now doing little more than transporting Putin's decisions and orders from the Kremlin back to the battlefields of Ukraine.
This is not evidence of some failure of brutality on the part of General Dvornikov, but rather as evidence that Putin simply cannot bring himself to let go of what has so-far been a monumental failure on his own part. (This is good news for Ukraine and Ukraine's supporters--Putin's been screwin' things up--good chance he'll continue to screw things up if given a good chance to do so.)
The Ukrainian Foreign Minister has said over the weekend that NATO has been basically useless to Ukraine in its fight for survival against Putin's Russia.
All of Ukraine is seeing the destruction of so much of their country and the murder of so many innocent people. I can understand his anger. While the Ukrainians have always said give us the weapons and we will fight, I think they were always looking for something more. NATO on the other hand is trying very hard to make sure this war does not spread to other countries.
I don't think the spread of the war will actually help Ukraine. All those who have fled to neighboring countries will certainly be less safe in that event. But having said that I do think the West or NATO in particular do need to realize that if Putin prevails he will not stop. But just like becoming reliant on Russian oil and gas was not wise it remains to be seen whether or not this new existential threat will be understood.
I do believe that if Turkey continues to deny Finland and Sweden membership in NATO there should be other security agreements made with those two countries. Agreements that are as binding as Article 4 in NATO. Then it will be understood that Turkey cannot request help from either Finland or Sweden with regards to its security.
The Russians seem to want to sport a reputation for brutality and to go to unnecessary lengths to cultivate just such a reputation.
That is a bully's strength, intimidation. And that is why appeasement does not work. Only greater strength with an underlying sense of integrity and value system will win over. That is what Russia has never understood, "soft" power. There is a reason that most people when they flee a country do not flee to Russia. There is a reason that most people preferred to surrender to American forces rather than Russian during WWII.
If you do not mind be hated then go for it.
By the way, word's going around that Putin couldn't let it go and is back to micro-managing the tactical maneuvers within the Ukrainian battlefield again.
I heard about that. Guess we'll see how that works for him.
"NATO on the other hand is trying very hard…"
NATO is now an impediment to any combined action against aggression from Putin's Russia. That's what it's currently designed to be. And it's doing as it's designed to do, and doing it very well in fact. Putin now has two reliable veto votes to ensure that NATO takes no action to resist him, minimum of two--Viktor Orbán of Hungary and Recep Erdoğan in Turkey. Maybe more than two later, maybe count Germany or France or both as a vote for Putin depending on what party leads the government in those countries at any particular time in the future.
NATO is trying very hard to maintain that as a permanent status quo and to remain an empty threat against Putin's aggression.
Convincing you that NATO should aspire to become something else is probably a waste of time. You'll need to come to that understanding slowly, on your own.
(When I contemplate the reorganization of NATO, without the security blanket of the American military pledge to step in at the last minute and save Europe from its own worst appeasement impulses, I am not thinking about abandoning NATO or weakening NATO or "punishing" those European nations who've defied us. NATO would become stronger and more action oriented without American participation; it's as simple as that. I'll take you awhile to come to grips with that notion--you don't like 'radical' notions just as a matter of principle, and that sounds like one at first blush, but eventually….)
Post Script:
The old Soviet Union is gone. Europe obviously doesn't need the United States to protect it from Russia, diminished as it is from the old threat of the Soviet Union; Europe can handle Russia on their own. Plus, the European Union needs a military wing and doesn't have one.
Things have changed since NATO was first needed; it's not needed now, not in its current form, one with a dominating American presence. You'll come to grips with this eventually I think.
I honestly don't know why Hungary and Turkey are in NATO as it is Russia that is an existential threat and both those country's leaders seem to be Putin's patsy's.
I am rather concerned that without American participation the other countries in NATO will scatter to the winds.
The E.U. can act without Hungary's agreement. This was demonstrated when the E.U. fined Hungary for implementing some 'anti-democratic' domestic political practices. It will come as no surprise to you that Hungary did not agree to that. And Turkey is not even a member. If NATO became the military arm of the E.U. then the damaging policies adopted by Hungary and Turkey could be properly addressed.
Russia has banned over 900 Americans from entering their country. Some, like President Biden and most members of Congress are no surprise. However, apparently they are worried about ghosts as well as they have banned John McCann too.
My question would be who have they not banned? I do not think I would want to make that short list. My guess is that those people are Trump supporters.
*sigh*
McCain
If you are worried about NATO members not pulling their weight in financing, leaving a lot of that to the US, you may not have that concern in the future.
It seems that there are quite a few countries that are ramping up their spending on military infrastructure, even non NATO members.
I think the predictions of the historian that I linked a blog post to are coming true at a more rapid rate than even he thought.
"My question would be who have they not banned?"
They have not banned Donald J Trump nor "Moscow Mitch" McConnell. Neither have they banned most of the ex-principals of the Trump administration (ex-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo being a notable exception―they have banned him.) They have also banned the noted black actor Morgan Freeman, for which I congratulate him, even though I don't know what admirable deed he has done to deserve the honor.
"If you are worried about NATO members not pulling their
weight in financing…"
That is not my chief concern. I believe that the United States and the concensus of European nations are no longer in close enough alignment on defense policy to support the presumption of a common defensive policy--aligned to the lowest possible response in almost all situations.
I think the principal service NATO preforms these days is to restrict active resistance to Russian aggression in Europe via the requirement of 'unanimity', i.e. it gives Putin's allies in Hungary, Turkey, (and Germany, France, and Italy, to a lesser extent) a veto over active resistance against Putin by the rest of Europe. (And I believe Sweden and Finland would likely have joined NATO years ago if it were not for their objection to maintaining co-membership along side the nuclear-armed United States.) I believe NATO would strenghen itself if the European members did not assume they would be able to demand that we carry their water for them when the time comes. And I do not believe they need us to carry their water against Russia; Russia is not the Soviet Union and does not have that power.
And I think we should open discussions about a post-American membership NATO organization. (I'm not suggesting we withdraw from NATO tomorrow, or without preparation for that future by us and by the remaining NATO members, but it's time to open the discussion, or so I think.)
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Changing subjects, slightly…. I am coming around to the belief that Putin is intentionally exposing Russia to continued sanctions and to imposed reparations once the war is ended. I think he's playing his own view of his own 'macho' against the punishment Russia might be made to pay for supporting him and his war against Ukraine. He seems to think he's "gonna show those bastards" that they can't punish Russia--Russia belongs to Putin and only to Putin, not to the rest of the world--not even to the Russians.
...Russia belongs to Putin and only to Putin...
It had occurred to me more than once that Putin's behavior is not just that of a bully but also that if an abuser whose abuse is now being shown to those outside his home. What the Russian people have been experiencing for some time is now what Ukaine is experiencing. Except they are being treated to what happens when you reject an abuser.
CNN aired an interview with Trevor Reed, the American who had been held captive in Russia on trumped up charges. It was very interesting. He bluntly said that it is not just Putin who is evil but the entire Russian government. None of the people working for that government care at all for human life. From the top on down.
He also said that no American should visit Russia for any reason as they would be at risk for detention.
Putin as 'an abuser'… Hard analogy to accept at first touch, but I can't say I see an immediate and obvious misfit either.
Very little leaks out about Putin's current personal mental state (what little does 'leak' out seems likely to be as much motivated speculation as real leakage). But, what little I'm getting to access seems to persistently hint at a Putin escape from reality, something mimicking Hitler's withdrawal into isolation and fantasy at the Berghof/Kehlsteinhaus ('Mountain Court/Eagle's Nest') complex in the Bavarian mountains, as the War turned against Germany in 1943 and thereafter.
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It's also being said that Russia is deploying its BMP-T Terminator Fighting Vehicles to the Donbas in support of the impending assault on what used to be the town of Sievierodonetsk, original population around 100,000--about a tenth of that still out there somewhere, in basements in and around the old town--the rest gone west. (And, the Russians are apparently trying once again to forge a crossing point over the nearby Seversky Donets River, and once again not successful.) I'll skip detailing the reasoning, but both of these developments suggest to me that the Russian generals who retain their commands are getting fairly desperate to report some good news back to the Kremlin.
In pursuit of that 'good news' they're likely gonna turn the newly depopulated Sievierodonetsk into a trashed out husk like Mariupol, losing hundreds if not thousands of Russian soldiers in the process.
Quaere then: Can the Ukrainians drive them back after the destruction of Sievierodonetsk? Or do the Russians press on to the next depopulated town, only to lose hundreds if not thousands of soldiers trashing the empty buildings there as well?
(For some reason, probably the Russian failure to make the river crossing, I'm guessing that the tide may turn at Sievierodonetsk. That very well may be where the Russian 'advance' into the Donbas stalls out--away from the southern sea shores.)
An excerpt from CNN's website of the resignation of Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev:
"For twenty years of my diplomatic career I have seen different turns of our foreign policy, but never have I been so ashamed of my country as on February 24 of this year," Bondarev wrote, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin's decision to invade Ukraine. "The aggressive war unleashed by Putin against Ukraine, and in fact against the entire Western world, is not only a crime against the Ukrainian people, but also, perhaps, the most serious crime against the people of Russia, with a bold letter Z crossing out all hopes and prospects for a prosperous free society in our country."
"…the resignation of Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev…"
Too few. Too little; too late. Better than nothing, but not by much.
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Also better than nothing… The American-made M777 howitzer, our baddest big gun, is currently going into service on the battlefields of the Donbas. NYT
Apparently the pro-Moscow leaders in the Kherson region are saying they will request a Russian military base in that region. They say the people are all for it.
What i see is a nice big target. Kind of like all of those Russian helicopters they had nicely lined up on the ground that exploded.
Too few. Too little; too late. Better than nothing, but not by much.
I am hoping that the crack widens.
My other thought was I wonder where he is?
The American-made M777 howitzer, our baddest big gun, is currently going into service on the battlefields of the Donbas.
I have heard that some countries are coming up with things specially designed for the Ukrainian's needs.
I suspect that there are many things getting to front lines.
One hopes that Russian soldiers will realize their best bet is to lay down their arms and surrounder. In the long run that would be the best service they could do their country.
"…some countries are coming up with things specially
designed for the Ukrainian's needs."
I believe our Phoenix Ghost drone would qualify there.
"In the long run…"
So far we're only seeing the barest of signs that the average Russian soldier might want to surrounder and go home.
However, there is a widely noted tendency for the Russian soldier to respond with delay and hesitation to orders to step up and engage with the Ukrainians. (Pentagon spokesman have described it to reporters as 'a lack of alacrity') It seems most of the Russian soldiers don't want to get in on the leading edge of the assault, preferring to come in on the second wave and step over the fresh casualties rather than become fresh casualties themselves.
Didn't take long for them to internalize the problem--their commanders don't give a damn 'bout their welfare. They're considered cannon-fodder. They caught on to that real quick, and they don't unlearn those lessons near as quick.
These may be the first tentative steps towards the Russian infantry refusing to go forward with the fight; perhaps later anyway―it'll take awhile yet for that that sentiment to fully mature, if it ever does.
But the first hint of it is already out there.
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In the shorter run, the Russians have made some very modest gains in the Donbas in the last few days. They've given up on their encirclement manuever, trying to corral and cut off a large Ukrainian force, and have gone on to moving in on small villages that the Ukrainians don't see as meriting defense (which would result in the village getting shelled to pieces, and there being nothing left to defend once the Russians had moved on, as they almost always do). But, modest gains are still gains.
And all across Europe E.U. member nations have been independently discovering that, contrary to common sense, paying Russian rubles to purchase Russian gas is not a breach of their embargo on Russian gas after all. These are also gains for Russia, undeniably so, perhaps more than merely modest gains.
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Denmark has announced the sale of American-made Harpoon surface to sea, anti-ship cruise missiles to Ukraine. Be time for Russia to move her Black Sea Surface Fleet back a little further from the shore. (They may have to move their submarines in closer to compensate.)
Hungary has declared a 'State of Emergency' on account of the rest of Europe is pissed at Viktor Orbán. This allows Orbán to 'rule by decree', a power he's sought since he first entered the Hungarian government.
But the first hint of it is already out there.
There are hints elsewhere, besides the military itself, that the war is not as popular as Putin & Co. would have the world believe. They may ascribe all of those fires and explosions to Ukraine or unstable out dated ammo, but perhaps not...especially if you are talking about a recruitment center going up in flames.
But, still, I will wait before I actually get my hopes up.
In the shorter run, the Russians have made some very modest gains in the Donbas in the last few days.
They do seem to be going all in in this region. I hope we can be of help to the Ukrainians who are enduring this for the sake of everyone's freedom.
(They may have to move their submarines in closer to compensate.)
Still think we could help with that too...
Hungary has declared a 'State of Emergency' on account of the rest of Europe is pissed at Viktor Orbán. This allows Orbán to 'rule by decree', a power he's sought since he first entered the Hungarian government.
He did that during the pandemic too, I believe. He would like this to be a permanent state of affairs, I am thinking.
Question, if someone steals something from someone, couldn't someone else then relieve them of it and either return it to the rightful owner or send it on to its rightful destination?
If we know that Russia is stealing grain from Ukraine and we can see the ships it is being loaded on, cannot those ships be interdicted? It would seem to be an easy thing to find them as there is limited egress from the Black Sea.
"…cannot those ships be interdicted?"
The interdiction of ships at sea has indeed been known to happen.
It's called 'piracy'. Traditional "Law-of-the-Sea" stuff there.
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Sievierodonetsk, the current most favorite target for Russia's "total war" approach against Ukrainian civilians and civil life is now being shelled from three sides. The last road out, and the last bridge on the fourth side, have been cut, stranding 10,000 or so Ukrainian civilians within the reach of Russian troops, which troops may be expected to brutalize any and all civilians they manage to find. (The Ukrainians claim they still have surreptitious supply lines reaching into Sievierodonetsk, but they don't claim they expect them to hold.) Artillery pounding of the stranded civilians has already begun.
The Euroweenies of the E.U. are proving to be total Euroweenies in the customary and traditional style. And we're still not sure that our American-made M777s are moving into place in the Donbas in sufficient numbers.
I expect it'll be a couple of weeks before we have solid clues as to which way the slug-fest over the Donbas is gonna go.
Putin has announced that the western economic sanctions against Russia must be lifted before Ukrainian grain shipments will be allowed to resume past the Russian blockade of Ukraine's ports.
It sounds like we may have decided to send Ukraine the MLRS systems they have been requesting. They would provide a longer range than the M777's.
I would not want to be a civilian within the Russian sphere of control. They have been known to disappear or be sent to the far reaches of Russia, never to return.
As far as I am concerned sanctions on Russia can stay indefinitely. Their actions have been repulsive in the extreme.
It's called 'piracy'.
Hmmm...somehow I don't think robbing a thief would upset me overly much.
"They [the MLRS] would provide a longer range than the
M777's."
I'm in favor. I've not entirely agreed with the State Department policy that restricts Ukraine to returning fire only against that part of the Russian war machine that's on Ukrainian territory (or on the Black and Azov Seas). I see nothing particularly wrong with the Ukrainians carrying the fight back into Russia. (I'm solid against retaliating against Russian civilians. No good will come of a second set of war crimes. But rail yards, tank farms, pipelines, bridges and the like are legitimate targets.) I likewise see nothing wrong with the Ukrainian desire to reclaim the Crimean Peninsula. Don't know that I would want to encourage that claim, but I'd not offer objection to it either should the Ukrainians turn out to be serious about that.
Meantime though, the Russians are reported to be making steady, slow but steady advances in their 'Plan B' to take control of the Donbas region. The Russians have superior firepower--more big guns and more troops to use them. The Ukrainians have superior morale and enthusiasm, but that sort of energy gets ground away when it repeatedly runs up against hard assets which do not suffer from the same sort of 'exhaustion'.
Belarus: Alexander Lukashenko has announced the formation of a new "tactical command", a special duty military command being formed up to defend its southern border with Ukraine. Supposedly there will be at least three special forces bases set up on that border. This may mean nothing, but then again….
I've not entirely agreed with the State Department policy that restricts Ukraine to returning fire only against that part of the Russian war machine that's on Ukrainian territory (or on the Black and Azov Seas.
I would also agree with you on this. Once Russia invaded Ukraine their infrastructure used for military operations became fair game for Ukraine. That would include any Russian soldiers wherever they may be.
Given that Russia seems to be throwing just about all of their conventional military power at Ukraine that would seem to imply they are weaker in other areas of their sphere of influence.
Although it sounds like their contractors, the Wagner Group, have been very active in Mali. There have been extensive civilian casualties there.
Also, I have read that a former Russian general has been killed in the Donbas while fighting for a private contractor.
"It sounds like we may have decided to send Ukraine the
MLRS systems they have been requesting."
This morning's word is that deal's still kinda 'iffy'. I vote to send 'em. (But, then again, they're not taking a vote on that, are they?) Supposedly the decision's been made to send the launchers, but to limit them to short-range ammunition (approx. 40 miles range--and, since we control the supplies of ammo, we can do that). But the decision hasn't been announced for a reason--it's subject to reconsideration until it's finally, publicly promised.
I haven't heard 'bout another dead Russian general, but I'll be open to hearin' such good news.
I have heard that the Russian plan to 'encircle' Ukrainian troops in the Donbas region was back on again. Ain't workin' (yet) but they're back in the mood to try.
And I noticed that Henry Kissinger, (he of the 'decent interval' strategy for peace in the Vietnam War) has promoted a surrender to Putin strategy in Davos, Switzerland this past week. I also noticed that Volodymyr Zelenskyy ('I need weapons, not a ride') has summarily dismissed Kissinger's latest theories on how to maintain peace with Russia in the Ukraine.
I have read that Russia has used it's thermobaric weapons systems in the Donbas.
They are also passing a law, as soon as Putin signs it, to raise the age limit for serving in the Russian military. This will apply to anyone, including foreigners. Apparently they are looking for specialists.
Personally I would avoid going to Ukraine to fight for Russia. It really isn't a healthy place .
I haven't heard 'bout another dead Russian general, but I'll be open to hearin' such good news.
Probably doesn't count as he was a former general.
And I noticed that Henry Kissinger,
I am not sure about his judgement, isn't he getting up there in age?
This morning's word is that deal's still kinda 'iffy'. I vote to send 'em.
Yes, the press swings back and forth on that. I also would vote to send, including long range ammo.
I guess we will see eventually what shows up, if anything.
Meanwhile the Russians are making hay while the sun shines. Unfortunately.
Btw, I went to see Top Gun yesterday, the new one.
Very good. I would recommend it to anyone interested in flying. Cruise is looking older, but he still has what it takes to make a good movie.
"I have read that Russia has used it's thermobaric weapons
systems in the Donbas."
Apparently more than just the once. They used them against the Azovstal plant in Mariupol as well. It's gettin' to be a rather non-remarkable event for the Russians.
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Kissinger's judgment was highly suspect even when he was younger.
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"Meanwhile the Russians are making hay while the sun
shines."
I had expected the Russians would be able to take Sievierodonetsk. (Lee C. @ Mon May 23, 05:30 am ↑↑) They've not yet done that. But, I still expect they'll be able to, 'fore too long. I did not expect them to be able to hold it after they had taken it; still don't.
So, I'm not at all alarmed at their current plodding progress across the wheat fields. But, I have been making it a point to acknowledge their progress into the Donbas. It would be foolish to not face up to their current successes as current successes (limited and plodding as they are) merely because I don't expect them to be able to hold on to them through the summer.
The Ukrainians surprised us early on. The Russians might pull one out as well.
Ukraine's defense minister says the Harpoons have now arrived from Denmark. The M777s are mostly in country as well. And the new missile launchers are due in Ukraine any moment now. (I don't think they're waiting on the announcement anymore--I think they've started transporting them already.)
I still expect the Russians to probably be able to take Sievierodonetsk, although I expect it'll be useless rubble by the time they do. (How long they'll be able to hold on to it will be the interesting question there.)
It looks like the Russians are cleaning up the port of Mariupol for shipping. They seem to be in the steel swiping business as well as grain.
Meanwhile it seems China doesn't need as much Russian oil as previously suggested. They have other suppliers as well. That's not to say they won't be buying any.
One wonders if when the Russians take the Donbass not only will it be rubble but so will the Russian military?
Makes it easier for them to become the vassal state of China that they are shooting for. So to speak.
Because NATO was never going to invade. That was always Putin's fantasy fed to Russian fools for his own gain.
Trump and Putin, two birds of a feather.
Not surprised about Azovstal.
Yes, we can catch them. link The thing is, they don't care.
"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov calling the Donetsk and Luhansk
regions Moscow’s ‛absolute priority.’"
He may have reason to repent that article of the faith in the foreseeable future.
When the cat's away they mice will play. So while the Russians are busy in the Donbass, maybe the Ukrainians should be busy elsewhere?
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