The war in Ukraine is only slightly over a week old now. But the destruction of homes and lives caused by the Russian forces is devastating. So many people around the world are watching in shock and horror. So many are standing with the people of Ukraine. So many are asking what can they do to help?
So many are repulsed by Putin's war.
I wanted to share this interview with an Israeli historian. He explains the history of Ukraine, the fantasy that Putin is living in, or was, and the possible consequences of this war. His words are wise and should be heeded. Take some time and listen.
I stand with the people of Ukraine.
165 comments:
Okay, not exactly on topic, but not off topic either. The Russians are now threatening to blow up the Iranian Nuclear Deal. You will recall that Trump unilaterally withdrew from that agreement after he was elected President. You may not recall that the Biden administration had opened talks to reinstate the agreement after Biden was elected. (But, whether or not that's 'front of mind', Biden did have his people open reinstatement talks with the Iranians.) The participants were expecting an announcement of a renewed deal in the next couple of weeks.
Russia, was, of course, one of the principals in that original agreement, and in the recently renewed talks.
Now the Russians are threatening to blow the whole thing up--mostly on a account of Iranian oil hitting the market just as 'The West' is considering embargoing Russian oil will help the rest of the world survive the embargo on Russian oil a little easier. This is not something Putin wants to see. So, now they're threatening to blow up the efforts to reinstate the Nuclear Deal with Iran. (You'll hear more about this later.)
My point is that Putin seems to be gettin' a little bit panicky. He's lashing out in all directions. I think the economic sanctions that have been imposed against Russia (and the fierce resistance of the Ukrainian people) has him spooked.
(I'm not sure that a spooked Putin with nukes in hand is necessarily a good thing.)
Follow up: Did you happen to notice that the new pictures of Putin hangin' out with the Russian stewardesses earlier today show Putin up close to the girls? The 20 yard distances he's been keeping from the whole world seem to have suddenly disappeared. (Somebody musta told him that the Putin analysts in The West had been speculating about that distance thing being a tip off to Putin goin' crazy lately.)
The Russian government has ordered supermarkets to limit sales of staples to counteract consumer hoarding that's broken out across Russia. NYT (next story ↑↑ above the link)
(I'm not sure that a spooked Putin with nukes in hand is necessarily a good thing.)
Pretty sure you're right about that.
Did you happen to notice that the new pictures of Putin hangin' out with the Russian stewardesses earlier today show Putin up close to the girls?
There is some speculation that that was faked.
The Russian government has ordered supermarkets to limit sales of staples to counteract consumer hoarding
Only 1 toilet paper roll pet person?
per
Apparently the refugees from Ukraine are not the only people fleeing. There have been more Russians crossing in to Finland than usual.
"…speculation that that was faked."
I probably should have thought of that myself.
Putin spoke live at that stewardesses meeting. And his presentation was described as "angry" by NBC's Richard Engle. So, I reckon those photos aren't fakes.
That's the problem with grabbing things from places like Reddit. You don't know what is real or not. Everyting really needs to be fact checked. At least I qualified my statement with "speculation".
The major news outlets go to great length to confirm things posted on social media.
This information was fact checked by CNN. There have been multiple protests in Russian cities. Over 4,000 anti-war protestors have been arrested in over 56 cities this Sunday.
"Over 4,000 anti-war protestors have been arrested in over 56
cities this Sunday."
The real story is obviously penetrating Russian cities. (It doesn't seem to be making it out into the Russian hinterlands.)
The body bags are coming home.
I feel for those little ones. I remember when Saddam arrogantly decided to invade Kuwait. Since then Iraq is lost.
And yes I’m alive, Lynne. Alive in Arizona.
The second Russian column aimed at Kyiv has stalled out. (It's been coming in from the northeast of Kyiv.) It appears to have suffered from a similar combination of woes as the 40 mile long column that's been stalled out to the northwest of Kyiv, Ukrainian resistance and logistical problems.
And the Ukrainians claim to have driven back Russian columns across the southern battle lines as well.
This appears to mean even more reliance by the Russians on saturation bombing and area-wide shelling of civilian neighborhoods in multiple cities.
Caesar!
I'm glad you made it out and are in the States. I hope all is well with you. :)
Yes, another war with untold suffering. It is so heartbreaking to see the families who are now separated and the needless loss of life.
The second Russian column aimed at Kyiv has stalled out.
It's hard to move forward if you outrun your supply line.
It sounds like the Russians were never able to quite get control of the airport to fly in supplies and the Ukrainians cut of all of the rail lines running between Russia and Ukraine. So they are bringing in things by truck which is giving the Ukrainians lots of targets to pursue. Yes, and someone did mention mud, so apparently that is a factor in the slow advances too.
Russia has generously offered to open up a humanitarian corridor for evacuating civilians. However, it leads to Russia. The Ukrainians turned down that offer.
This article has an informative analysis of what Putin is trying to accomplish and what may happen in the future. Not pretty.
But Repass believes that while the Russians may be able to overcome Ukraine's stiff defense, they will not be able to hold onto the country because Putin doesn't have sufficient forces in theater to occupy large swaths of Ukraine indefinitely. In short, Putin has bitten off more than he can chew.
"Russia has generously offered…a humanitarian corridor…
to Russia."
I saw that. The Russians offered six corridors I think. Four of them lead into either Russia or Belarus; the other two into northwestern Ukraine.
Hostages; Putin wants hostages.
Stories are coming out about Russian soldiers now starting to get mean and surly. They're now shooting refugees as they try to flee--close-up small arms fire, face to face, or shooting them down as they run. Politico Havta hope those soldiers are in the minority.
Related: The Russians are pretty much 'all in' with the troops they'd prepositioned for the invasion. (Although the Belarus troops deployed with them apparently never crossed over into Ukraine--there were rumors of mutinies among them.) The Russians are now recruiting Syrian Arab fighters to supplement their invasion force. NYT
I think your CNN analyst is a little behind today's headlines. (He was interviewed last Thursday and Friday as the article notes.) The NewYorkTimes and WashingtonPost 'update' pages have been suggesting that the Russians have since run into stiffened resistance in the south as well as in the north, stalling their advances along the seaside; even driving them back in some places. (They started out with shorter supply lines in the south, and perhaps fewer Ukrainian troops to confront, but the Ukrainian defense now seems to have solidified across the south as well.)
And it's looking like Putin's response to the Ukrainian resistance is going to be to make unrestrained war against the civilian population, pound the cities into rubble, destroy the infrastructure as necessary, starve out population. It's what he did in Chechnya and Syria, and it worked out for him there. So, he's gonna try it again here. He stands a real good chance of eventually taking possession of the ruins and setting up his puppet government, but I don't think he'll ever pacify the country.
He's gonna turn the Ukrainians into implacable enemies of Russia if he ain't careful. I've seen some suggestions in the news that this sentiment is already starting to take hold in Ukraine.
________________________________
Post Script: If Putin needs a Ukrainian canal to get fresh water into Crimea, the Ukrainians will soon 'nuff try to put the canal out of operation.
As Europe and the United States contemplate a total ban on fuel imports from Russia, Russia has begun to consider a preƫmptive strike, cutting off fuel exports to The West as retaliation for the cutting off of fuel exports to The West.
I have begun to wonder if we have in place contingency plans for the collapse of Russia?
Just a thought.
He's gonna turn the Ukrainians into implacable enemies of Russia if he ain't careful.
Yes. The concern of the gentleman in my post. The spread of hatred.
Hostages; Putin wants hostages.
We will have to pry the WBA basketball player, Britny Griner, out of Putin's cold, dead hands I fear.
Stupid to go to Russia to play. I'd rather get a job at McDonald's in the off season.
And it's looking like Putin's response to the Ukrainian resistance is going to be to make unrestrained war against the civilian population, pound the cities into rubble, destroy the infrastructure as necessary, starve out population.
Yes. He is all in.
You know, it occurs to me that the rocket launchers the Russians have tucked in amongst the villages outside major cities would be better removed from the ground. Air will just create more civilian casualties. Of course that would not be easy.
Biden's reversed himself; he's going to ban imports of Russian energy. (It's only about 7% of our totals, and we're an even lesser percentage of their total exports, but it'll encourage other countries to follow.)
The Russian turn towards civilian massacre has reportedly driven Chinese President Xi into taking increasingly pro-Ukrainian positions. He doesn't really wanna be there, but he doesn't want China seen as publicly encouraging Putin's massacre-the-civilians strategy either.
Changing subjects: I just checked my county's CDC rating to see if we were in the 'low' risk of covid category yet, according to the CDC. (Not yet.) But I did notice that almost all of Minnesota was now in the 'moderate' to 'low' risk categories.
Poland has agreed to transfer title and possession of its entire fleet of MIG-29s to the United States, effective immediately. The planes will be surrendered to the U.S. at an American air base in Germany. (Specific transfer details remain classified for the obvious reason that the planes will shortly thereafter be transfered by the United States to the Ukrainian Air Force, and there's no point in making that transfer any easier for Putin to disrupt.)
Jury just came back in the Jan 6įµŹ° case against Guy Reffitt, dedicated Trumpkin from Texas, and the first defendant to take his defense to a jury. After a week-long trial, it took the jury only two hours of deliberation to find him guilty on all counts (five counts in total). Reuters
It sounds like the transfer of planes to Ukraine has hit a snag. The Poles want to give them to the US who would then give them to Ukraine. Apparantly this transfer would take place at a US military base. That is the snag.
Seems no one wants to appear to be giving the planes to Ukraine.
The US is going to send two Patriot missile batteries to Poland for defense.
That is what Ukraine could use.
But I did notice that almost all of Minnesota was now in the 'moderate' to 'low' risk categories.
Yes, our cases have taken a significant decline. We have removed our mask restriction at work.
I hope it lasts.
"Apparantly this transfer would take place at a US military
base. That is the snag."
May not be that simple. That 'snag' could probably be gotten around. Probably will be gotten around almost immediately after the real problems are solved, assuming, of course, that the real problems get solved. (Although I understand the current U.S. position to be that it's actually a NATO base, and that makes the transfer to Ukraine a NATO problem. Poland has apparently agreed with that assessment. Reuters)
The real problem probably is Congress's long-standing restrictions on an American President's ability to order the provision of offensive weapons to foreign nations (not members of NATO). Lots of i's to be dotted and t's to be crossed; lots of notices to give to Congress and subsequent waiting periods to put in before that can legally happen. Most of this they'll probably want to finesse, work around somehow instead of working through.
(Plus these are NATO qualified aircraft--got proprietary computer systems that have to be protected--embedded passwords to protect--stuff like that.)
My guess is, if they can finagle it through, it goes down like the ban on importing Russian oil--they'll claim it's not even on the table, and they'll keep telling us that, until suddenly it's announced as a done deal.
(The Patriot missiles, on the other hand, are classified as 'defensive' weapons; different set of rules.)
________________________________
The Swedish Prime Minister has rejected suggestions that Sweden should join NATO. (Although the idea has a bare majority of Swedish citizens in favor of it--for now anyway.) Reuters
The Russians have disconnected the Chernobyl atomic power plant from the IAEA monitoring equipment that was providing readings of its status. They have also disconnected it from the power grid (it needs power to keep the cooling equipment operating and prevent further meltdown.) There are on-site generators, but they've been considered 'backup' to the power grid. (I suspect Putin's people may be planting 'evidence' of Ukraine's imaginary secret nuclear weapons program.)
The Russians have disconnected the Chernobyl atomic power plant from the IAEA monitoring equipment that was providing readings of its status.
That doesn't sound good at all.
IAEA was just saying that the readings are ok. Are they or aren't they?
So who is downwind of Chernobyl?
So far readings of radiation (taken at some distance from the damaged reactor) show no jump in radiation releases. Temperature and pressure readings taken at the reactor are nevertheless offline (best as I can tell from what I've read).
"My guess is, if they can finagle it through…"
They seem to have come to the conclusion that they cannot finagle it through. The Department of Defense has weighed in on the MIG 29 transfer question and frowned down on it. Politico
Fly the planes to a non NATO nation and make the transfer there.
You got a volunteer in mind?
China and Russia have both begun to advance stories that the United States has been working on biological and chemical weapons experiments in secret laboratories located in Ukraine. Reuters
This is lookin' like Putin's advance plan to justify his impending use biological and/or chemical weapons against Ukraine, and then try to claim that the results were the consequence of an 'escape' from the imaginary United States' experiments.
And, it's lookin' like the Chinese are willing to go along with that plan.
And it becomes more apparent whose side the Chinese are on.
You got a volunteer in mind?
Good point. lol! I don't see anyone stepping up to that plate.
It strikes me that Zelensky is right. This will not stop with Ukraine. We have to face the fact that a large portion of the world do not live as we do. Autocracy for them is the norm, not democracy.
We have to be on guard that it does not become the norm for us as well. We need to stand with those who desire the freedom we have enjoyed.
Or we may not continue to enjoy it.
They were just talking about the plane issue on CNN. The military analyst was talking about the Russian S400 anti-air system. It has a range of 250 miles and would have the ability to shoot down aircraft within that range. So the Russians could cover Ukrainian territory with that from within their borders. That would explain why the planes the Ukrainians already have are not effective. More planes would not help. They are thinking anti-air defenses for Ukraine would be better.
The question is, can they get there in time?
Reuters: Shipments of ammunition (and small arms and body armor), from American citizens to addresses in Ukraine are being processed and approved for export on a priority, emergency schedule. Zelenskyy said "I need ammo; not a ride"; folks are sending ammo. And guns, and body armor.
AssociatedPress: The childrens and maternity hospital in Mariupol that was hit yesterday got all the press, but the Russians also hit two other hospitals the same day. Hard to believe that was either coincidence or accidental.
Shipments of ammunition (and small arms and body armor), from American citizens to addresses in Ukraine are being processed and approved for export on a priority, emergency schedule.
People are also booking Airbnb stays with Uktaianian hosts. They have no intention of actually using the reservations.
At the end of two weeks fighting in Ukraine, it's beginning to look like they've moved into a war of attrition. It's obvious that Putin's original blitzkrieg plan has failed, and equally obvious that he had no backup plan.
So, now it's become a Russian war directed primarily against Ukraine's civilian population and civilian population centers. And Putin now seems to want to keep that phase of the war going as long as he can maintain it.
And Russian popular support for the war is still running at around 60% in favor.
Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schrƶder is in Moscow today hoping to meet with Putin, in an effort to salvage the rapidly depleting value of his Russian stock holdings and guarantee a future for his corporate board salaries from Russian energy companies.
He stands virtually zero chance of getting Putin to back down from his 'scorched earth' campaign against Ukraine. So, perhaps he has something else in mind.
Ukraine is setting up a "deserters hotline" for Russian soldiers who want to defect. Those who haven't committed atrocities are eligible.
Russian forces have laid siege to the city of Chernihiv, 80 miles northeast of Kyiv. They attempted to take the city early in their assault on Ukraine, gave it up as too much trouble, and bypassed it to move on to Kyiv, which they so far have also been unable to take. So, now they're back, pounding Chernihiv with missiles, rockets and airplanes again.
There seems to be a question of whether or not Russia will give a ride back to Earth for an American astronaut currently working at the International Space Station. He is scheduled to fly back on a Russian spacecraft.
Russians are finding that their credit cards don't work outside of Russia either.
It is starting to sink in that all of the gains they have made over the last 30 years may be slipping away.
It seems that large 40 mile long Russian convoy has largely dispersed. What is left of it has been repositioned in amongst the trees.
"There seems to be a question of whether or not Russia will
give a ride back to Earth for an American astronaut…"
Hostages; Putin wants hostages.
________________________________
"Russians are finding that their credit cards don't work outside
of Russia"
Many of them don't work inside Russia either. (It depends on which specific bank issued the card.)
________________________________
"What is left of it has been repositioned in amongst the trees."
I suspect they needed to clear the road for another convoy to pass. Kyiv is a highly desired target for Putin. Now, if he can just get the next convoy through… (no sure thing there either). U.S. military watchers say some of the artillery are taking up firing positions in those trees for the assault on Kyiv (gonna shoot from wayyyy back there--accuracy of fire is not an important consideration when you're doing area-wide carpet bombing).
NBC Nightly News was saying last night that U.S. intelligence was now predicting Kyiv would be surrounded within two weeks and overrun in perhaps as soon as six weeks. Of course, the original estimate was that Kyiv would fall in one to four days. That clearly didn't happen. So, there's that….
Curiously, military intelligence isn't seeing any moves (yet) to bring in reinforcements or replacements for the Russian losses. I don't know what to make of that, if anything.
When Russia worked this 'dirty war' model against Chechnya and Syrian rebels, they used local forces to do the dirty work of clearing the rubble of the dug in defenders. That's not gonna work here. They're gonna havta use Russian soldiers this time, and they don't seem to be making plans for that.
Morning news suggests that the Russians have completed their "regrouping" and are launching a new wave of attacks on cities across Ukraine this morning. (Aerial and artillery leading the way--virtually no mention of ground combat units moving against the Ukrainian cities, not yet anyway.)
"…virtually no mention of ground combat units moving against
the Ukrainian cities, not yet anyway."
That's changed. Updates have Russian ground troops trying to get into the suburbs of Kyiv.
Curiously, military intelligence isn't seeing any moves (yet) to bring in reinforcements or replacements for the Russian losses.
I have continued to hear that they are recruiting in the Middle East. I can kind of see how it would be difficult to recruit or force Russians to act as canon fodder. It would be a tell to their populace that something wasn't going quite right. I'm not quite sure what happened to the 1,000 Chechen mercenaries that were on tap. Are they still lurking in the shadows or have they arrived?
The Ukrainians would have a fighting change if the air assault could be neutralized.
Biden is still bluntly stating we will not fight the Russians in Ukraine, because that would be WWIII.
I still have to wonder if WWIII has not already begun. It just may not look like one would think. Except in Ukraine.
Because how does this all end? What is Putin's end game? Does he think we will just resume normal relations with him after he gobbles up Ukraine?
Or is he relying on China for help in the end?
Reuters: Russia was disappointed to say the least when Belarus did not join in the Russian attack into Ukraine (there were rumors of mutinies among the Belarus' armed forces being staged for the invasion). Now the Ukrainian military has revealed that Russian jets flying into Ukrainian air space have begun firing back on Belarus' in the hopes of getting Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko to believe that the Ukrainians are attacking him, and getting Belarus to finally join them in the assault on Ukraine.
________________________________
"Are they still lurking in the shadows."
They may be lurking in Putin's imagination.
________________________________
"I still have to wonder if WWIII has not already begun."
Quite possibly.
"What is Putin's end game?"
Putin's anticipated his game ending when his forces produced a relatively quick seizure of Kyiv--capturing or killing Volodymyr Zelenskyy, or putting him to flight to 'The West'.
He did not have a 'Plan B'. He didn't think he'd need one.
Scrambling for a new plan, he's now decided that he has to grind Ukraine down, until they finally surrender, or until there is no more Ukraine, merely unburied bodies strewn across the rubble that was once Ukraine. And he expects Russia to be standing, legs astride, on top of that rubble in the event that's how it ends.
If that doesn't work out for him either, he may well decide to nuke some Ukrainian cities. Keep nuking cities it until the Ukrainians surrender, or until they're all dead and nobody wants to stand in the radioactive piles of waste that used to be Ukraine's cities. I don't think he's relying on China; he has nukes.
Looks like the dawn in Ukraine has brought a brief respite from a night of even more intense shelling in even more population centers across Ukraine.
Putin's obviously decided that if he cannot defeat the Ukrainian military in short enough order then he will destroy the civilians instead. (Perhaps that will break the Ukrainians will to resist, before the sanctions can raise Russia against him. Or, perhaps he's just pissed off that they resisted him to begin with, and he's decided to make an example of them for the benefit of his next victims.)
I begin to suspect the surrender of Ukraine will not be enough to stop the slaughter. I suspect that Putin will continue the campaign against Ukrainian civilians at least until the economic sanctions are removed as well.
There appears to be support among Americans to send planes and anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine according to a poll done on CNN's Smerconish's show. 90% were in favor.
What are your thoughts?
"What are your thoughts?"
I think we're already sending anti-aircraft systems to Ukraine (our best Stinger missiles for instance). We've got British made Starstreak missiles (laser guided--higher altitude strike capability) on promise, and, I think, in the pipeline already. But they'll require some training to use well, and I don't know that the Ukrainians have much time for training in new weapons systems. Patriot batteries would seem to be pretty much out of the question on account of the more extensive training that would be required.
It seems that the Biden administration was willing to facilitate the transfer of MIG 29s to Ukraine, but didn't want it highly publicized. They wanted some deniability, mostly because the Ukrainians have planes now they can't fly against the Russian anti-aircraft batteries trained on the country. The utility of more planes that the Ukrainians don't fly would seem to be limited, so they didn't want to wave the provision of airplanes in Putin's face. (Putin being seen as maybe not entirely rational these days.) The Ukrainians may get those planes anyway, should they start showing a need for and potential actual use of more aircraft.
Putin has announced just in the past 24 hours that he sees 'convoys' of weapons going into Ukraine as an escalation by 'The West' possibly requiring retaliation by Russia. It appears the Biden administration is intent on sending those convoys anyway.
All in all I think the Biden administration may have the idea about right--send weapons they can use, as much as they can use, and spend less time talking about the weapons we're sending.
I did kind of wonder if Biden's blunt speech about the fact that we will not send troops or aircraft flown by our pilots into Ukraine and will not fight WWIII in Ukraine was a bit diversionary.
Putin has announced just in the past 24 hours that he sees 'convoys' of weapons going into Ukraine as an escalation by 'The West' possibly requiring retaliation by Russia.
Kind of late for him to call it.
"I'm not quite sure what happened to the 1,000 Chechen
mercenaries that were on tap."
I meant to mention: The Russians do have a private mercenary army akin to the American "Blackwater" outfit (now known as 'Academi') which hired on for the second Iraq War. The Russian version is known as the 'Wagner Group' and they're in Ukraine in force. There's also a Russian version of the Praetorian Guard, answerable to Putin personally, known as the 'Rosgvardiya', also serving in Ukraine now.
Putin's looking hard for more troops to send in, guys who aren't 'regular army'.
"Kind of late for him to call it."
I thought the Biden administration was wise to ignore the threat. There's no point in giving Putin the notion that the subject might be open for discussion.
The idea that Putin was somehow going to pacify Ukraine with a couple hundred thousand troops was a monumentally wrong idea. We should help Putin fix his attention on that grievous error and not have him divert his thoughts to less weighty matters, like making threats. (This applies equally and especially to Putin's Russian supporters)
"The White House announced it was sending an additional
$200 million in arms and equipment to Ukraine on Saturday,
as Russian forces stepped up a campaign of bombardments
and sieges aimed at devastating the country’s cities and
towns, including the capital, Kyiv.
"The American announcement of more arms for Ukraine’s
military, including missiles for taking out warplanes and tanks,
came just hours after Russia warned that weapons sent to
Ukraine would be considered ‛legitimate targets’ for Russian
forces. A Foreign Ministry official said the ‛thoughtless
transfer’ of antitank and antiaircraft missiles could lead to
serious consequences."
NewYorkTimes
________________________________
The morning headlines tell me that Russian commanders have upped their game all across Ukraine. More cities under attack, more Russian troops directly participating in the attacks, and attacks further west than has been the norm to date. The Russians are bringing their "A" game as they see it. And they're barely moving the needle. They're grinding a lot of civilian territory into rubble (and getting more civilians to flee), but they're not gaining much ground, not yet anyway. The Ukrainians who stayed have stayed to fight.
Now we're looking to see whether the Russians can sustain this level of consumption of resources long enough to overcome the Ukrainian resistance. Gonna be bloody time in Ukraine for the next few weeks.
Seems to me that Putin's been showing signs of desperation these last few days. (News organizations repeatedly describe him as 'angry'; perhaps that is a better description, but it looks a little like desperation to me.). Either way, hard to say what he's gonna do if he doesn't start getting better news from the front. But, I expect he'll eventually do something other than just keep pouring his military assets into a grinder that's not gaining him any territory. And probably sooner rather than later. I'm looking for something to break by the end of the month or there'bouts.
Lynnette:
” It's too bad Marcus is not here. It would be interesting to see what his opinion is.”
My opionion is that Putin is a nation wrecking baby killing asshole that needs to get got. I saw Lee was fantizising about me somehow being a Putin fan-boy but I can assure you I am not. I have been clear from the get go on Zeyads former blog that I detest war and am very much against the aggressor so I don’t see how this could be surprising to you.
I will however admit to naivety when it comes to Putin. I never thought he would do something like this and I was, obviously, wrong.
And for the record I do not subscribe to the story that the US “poked the bear”. The US and NATO and the EU might well have “poked the bear” in luring the Ukraine into its orbit. That still does in no way give Russia an excuse to invade.
This is clear cut a Russian aggression and Russia is to blame and we should sanction that country back to the Stone Age.
Also on the topic at large I really can’t see a Russian “win” in any scenario. First of all the Ukrainians are putting up one hell of a fight. And even if they were in the end defeated there are gonna be guerilla groups all over. And the russkies don’t have the manpower for a prolonged occupation. And if they install a puppet regime it’s gonna be thrown out the second Russian troops leave. It’s lose either way.
The Russian version is known as the 'Wagner Group' and they're in Ukraine in force.
I've heard of them. Weren't they in Syria? I thought some of our guys ended up in some kind of altercation with some of them, ultimately killing some.
Now we're looking to see whether the Russians can sustain this level of consumption of resources long enough to overcome the Ukrainian resistance.
I was listening to Paul Krugman earlier. He was talking about the effects of the sanctions that are in place. They will indeed start to bite very hard against Russia. Far more seriously then even Putin really understands.
According to him the question of if China will come to Russia's rescue may not be so easy, near term anyway. There is a lot of geography to overcome.
But long term according to Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group, there may be a realignment with China and Russia becoming closer. He believes the Russia/Ukraine war will be as significant as the fall of the Berlin Wall.
I will however admit to naivety when it comes to Putin. I never thought he would do something like this and I was, obviously, wrong.
There are a lot of people who felt the same way. The problem for Putin is that his intelligence was very poor. In short, he thought he could get away with it. The Ukrainians would fold, and so would the West. He underestimated both.
This is clear cut a Russian aggression and Russia is to blame and we should sanction that country back to the Stone Age.
I think that is in the works.
Also on the topic at large I really can’t see a Russian “win” in any scenario.
Not in reality, no. But Russia is not living in realty right now. Putin's propaganda machine is one area where they excel. He will merely lie and the Russian people will believe. Except for those who search out the truth.
One Russian journalist has estimated 200,000 Russians have fled the country.
"Today at 12:32 a.m. EST|Updated today at 5:20 p.m. EDT" !!
"Russia has turned to China for military equipment and aid in
the weeks since it began its invasion of Ukraine, U.S. officials
familiar with the matter told The Washington Post.
"The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity
because of the sensitivity of the subject, did not describe what
kind of weaponry had been requested, or whether they know
how China responded."
WashingtonPost
"I thought some of our guys ended up in some kind of altercation with some of them, ultimately killing some."
Your memory serves you well. Yes, they were in Syria working for Putin. Yes, they got crossways with our forces (various stories circulated 'bout how that come to happen). Several of them ended up dead (wide variations exist in the estimates for the number of them died in that encounter).
"He believes the Russia/Ukraine war will be as significant as
the fall of the Berlin Wall."
He might be right.
"The problem for Putin is that his intelligence was very poor."
Ironic that, considering his roots in the KGB.
But then again, he was never able to rise above the rank of Lieutenant Colonel, so he wasn't exactly setting the intelligence world on fire with his performance as an intelligence agent.
Russia has turned to China for military equipment and aid in
the weeks since it began its invasion of Ukraine,
I saw a quick blurb about that on CNN before I switched to my local news channel. It was gone when I switched back.
My first thought is surprise, extreme surprise that they are asking this early in their campaign. I knew they would eventually appeal to China for help, but I didn't expect it this soon.
If China does get involved it would certainly not sit well in Washington. It would also truly make this WWIII.
So what happened to the vaunted Russian military machine? And would China want to expend their resources to prop up what may turn out to be an albatross around their neck?
"… extreme surprise that they are asking this early in their
campaign."
I was more surprised that we'd let ‛em know we knew. Decided there must be an objective behind that move. Somebody in Putin's world gettin' poked in one of their sensitive spots. (Good chance it was a poke at the Chinese themselves--national security adviser Jake Sullivan is meeting with China’s highest ranked diplomat, Yang Jiechi, today).
We can only hope the poke has the desired effect.
________________________________
A 'humanitarian aid' convoy was unable to reach Mariupol Sunday due to heavy shelling of the agreed 'humanitarian corridor', and potential refugees were likewise unable to escape the city. Looks a lot like Putin's working the 'starve' angle hard against the civilian population there. He'll need to take Mariupol to establish his hold across the south of Ukraine to Moldovia, and to lock whatever's left of Ukraine (assuming anything's left) away from their access to the sea after the war is over.
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The Chechens have finally showed up. The Chechen leader, one Ramzan Kadyrov, with the unusual title of 'Head of the Chechen Republic', has issued a video in which he claims to be at the still contested Hostomel Airport, getting ready to join the assault against Kyiv. NewYorkTimes
The Chechens have finally showed up.
Saving them for street fighting. I hope the Ukrainians and their friends have arranged a "warm" welcome for them.
One of the women, and her baby, who was carried out on a stretcher from the maternity hospital that the Russians bombed has died.
I know there are many more, but she was on all the news channels it seemed like.
Moscow: The head of Putin's praetorian guard, the Rosgvardiya, admitted today in a Russian Orthodox Church, where they were being honored by the Russian Orthodox Church, that the operation in Ukraine isn't going as fast as had been anticipated. He says this is because the Ukrainian Nazi Jews were hiding behind old people.
First I'd heard of any even semi-official admission that the invasion of Ukraine has hit a snag.
I was more surprised that we'd let ‛em know we knew.
I think you're right, they are poking both Russia and China.
I heard that Elon Musk sent Starlink hookups to Ukraine for communication. But they can be targeted by the Russians, so the Ukrainians can't turn them on.
It occurs to me that if the Ukrainians could possibly hook one of those things up next to a Russian position, then the Russians might do their bombing for them.
I think you heard wrong. The Russians haven't even taken out the Ukrainian's old cell phone system. Speculation is that's because a) the Russians are using it too and b) they don't intend to withdraw from Ukraine after overwhelming the Ukrainians, so they'll need it to control Ukraine afterwards and c) they built it to begin with and so they can tap into it and listen to the Ukrainians' communications in real time.
Musk did send the Starlink equipment, but the Russians haven't attacked it either on account of the Ukrainians old cell phone system is still up and running and in use.
"TOPLINE Starlink, the app that enables mobile users to access
SpaceX’s satellite internet service of the same name, was the
most-downloaded app in Ukraine Monday afternoon after
reaching the top spot Sunday, according to data seen by the
Wall Street Journal, following SpaceX CEO Elon Musk’s rapid
delivery of the terminals that provide the service to the war-
torn country last month.
"Sensor Tower, a firm that provides App Store and Google Play
data, told the Wall Street Journal the app was downloaded
21,000 times globally Sunday across the two stores—the most
global installs in a single day, with most of the downloads
coming from Ukraine.
The app has been downloaded nearly 100,000 times in
Ukraine according to Sensor Tower, with global downloads
more than tripling in the last two weeks."
Forbes
"Elon Musk's SpaceX has sent a second shipment of Starlink
terminals to Ukraine, generating grateful thank-yous from
senior Ukrainian government officials, including President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
"SpaceX delivered its first batch of Starlink terminals to
Ukraine after Russia's invasion of that country on Feb. 24
caused widespread communications outages across the
country. That lack of connectivity let to a government official
asking Musk personally for assistance on Twitter following
weeks of private negotiations.
"Ukraine is under siege due to an internationally condemned
invasion by Russia that began Feb. 24, and space entities
worldwide have responded with sanctions against Russia and
support for Ukraine."
Space (March 11įµŹ°)
Looks like areas that have lost the old service lines are switching to Starlink. (And I'd bet some of that traffic is anticipatory.
I saw it on a piece CNN did regarding the trains. So maybe It's not turned on because they don't know how to work it and don't want to say?
Or CNN had it wrong as to which system they were referring to. Don't know.
Fog of war reporting.
This is rather amazing.
She has a lot of courage.
I notice that the aid convoy that couldn't make it to Mariupol on Sunday wasn't able to get through on Monday either. Still getting shelled when it tries to move on to Mariupol.
Putin especially wants to take Mariupol to complete his connection from Russia to the Ukrainian city of Odessa in western Ukraine, which is his more desired target. Starving the people out in Russian-resistant Mariupol is part of his chosen process for completing that pathway to Odessa.
________________________________
Those Russian body-bags may not yet be making it back to Mother Russia. Turns out at least some of them are ending up in morgues in Belarus. Ain't clear whether they're being put in the ground in Belarus, or just waiting in cold storage for later dispositions.
And, fog of war reporting goes around. Looks like the earlier reports of Russian jets firing on Belarus to fake a Ukrainian attack were a little premature. The Ukrainians actually said that the Russians were preparing such an operation. Seems some reporters got out ahead of reality there. The fake Ukrainian air attack never came about--perhaps because the plan was 'outed' to Belarus before the Russians could get it implemented.
________________________________
Rumor's going around that Putin has placed the head and the second in command of Russia's FSB spy agency under house arrest. DailyMail
Second rumor: The TimesofIsrael says there's a purge of Russian generals also under way.
And, things are going badly enough for the Russians overnight that the NewYorkTimes is willing to declare that this latest, and most vicious, third wave of attacks has 'stalled out' just like the first two.
(And the leaders of Slovenia, Poland, and the Czech Republic are confident enough in the Ukrainian defenses that they're all going to Kyiv to meet with Zelenskyy today.)
Reports going around of Russian soldiers running out of food and ransacking Ukrainian supermarkets.
Here I found a very interesting summary of a whole bunch of tweets by someone who seems to be a Russian, although of course I can’t be sure about that.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1502673952572854278.html
What I thought most interesting was this suggestion Russia is not a military regime but a state security regime that is very suspicious of its own military. I believe that could well be the case.
Not really winning hearts and minds…
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1503704046972116992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1503704046972116992%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcornucopia.se%2F2022%2F03%2Fuppdateras-inga-ryska-framgangar-kyjiv-ar-inte-belagrat-terrorbombning-och-folkmord-fortsatter%2F
Zelensky is confident enough that in the middle of a war he starts talking tax reform to try and save the economy
https://twitter.com/OAJonsson/status/1503636161255944192?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1503636161255944192%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fcornucopia.se%2F2022%2F03%2Fuppdateras-inga-ryska-framgangar-kyjiv-ar-inte-belagrat-terrorbombning-och-folkmord-fortsatter%2F
This guy has been really impressive all through out. Love the casual dressing too btw, gives him a cool look.
"I believe that could well be the case."
It fairly clearly is the case. Putin has always feared an internal coup more than he's feared 'The West'. The military is the source for many, if not most, coups in the authoritarian states of the world. That's why Putin has broken up the military. He now has his own praetorian guard that reports to him personally, not through the military chain of command. It's called the Rosgvardiya, and they're enforcing Putin's will in the Ukrainian theatre by the way--they're in there in force. A military coup is much less likely now that he's got his own personal praetorian guard actively watching over Russia's military men in action.
(I think the most equivalent modern para-military force would probably be Hitler's 'Storm Troopers' the old 'SS'.)
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry has posted a notice on their Facebook page that they will release any Russian POW to his mother. If she will come to Ukraine to pick him up she can have him back. NBCNews They did not promise to give back his weapons.
There are rumors that family members of Russian soldiers who may be returned to Russia have prepared for their funerals, as they will be executed if they return.
This guy has been really impressive all through out. Love the casual dressing too btw, gives him a cool look.
Beats Putin shirtless by miles.
There is a Frontline special on tonight on PBS Channel 2 covering what led up to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. It's at 8:00pm Central time.
I'd just dropped down in front of the keyboard after supper, just in time to see that e-mail notice pop up. In time to set the DVR. Two separate hour-long programs airing sequentially.
By the way, the lady protester was interrogated for 14 hours, and then hauled before a judge and fined the equivalent of $280. Probably lost her job at the TV station as well, although the news squib I saw didn't mention that.
Dang, I forgot about the second show. I'll have to look for that later. The first one follows Putin as he rises to power and his gradual dismantling of what democracy there was in Russia to create what is in effect a police state.
There are some very good interviews with people in our government who have dealt with Putin.
I am thinking there really is no diplomatic way out of this. Putin wants empire. He is only using NATO as am excuse. Those who suggest he may not stop at Ukraine may be right.
Turned out the second show was just a rerun of the exposƩ Frontline did on Putin a couple of years back.
A brief aside...it strikes me that China may have more to think about than whether or not to help Russia.
They are in the midst of another Covid outbreak and are placing a large number of people into lockdown again.
Their running away from the virus may not be the best thing. As long as their population does not develop some immunity they will continue to have these episodes, which will disrupt their ability to export goods abroad.
This could affect their GDP which will in turn affect their people's lives detrimentally. Not good for the people in power.
They may not want to risk economic ties with some of their best customers at this time.
Oh good, I didn't miss anything then.
"Those who suggest he may not stop at Ukraine may be right."
Yes, I think they are right. The wanton destruction of Ukrainian cities is intended to educate those next on Putin's list.
I've been trying to sort out the arguments for and against America accepting Poland's responsibility for transferring those MIG's to Ukraine. (It should be noted that the United States didn't 'block' the transfer of those planes to Ukraine as is so often claimed in the media--the Polish government was, and still is, free to give those planes to Ukraine without our blessing or approval if they wanted to do that--those weren't American planes, after all. So we had nothing to say about it--nothing more than any other NATO member might have had to say about the transactions of another member-state, which is damn little. The Poles had, in fact, refused to do it, refused to give the planes to Ukraine--then blamed us for their refusal.)
Biden's visiting NATO in Europe next week. Quite possible he's hoping to get a wider agreement, hopefully NATO wide, to some new measures, things like those MIG-29s.
As regards the No-Fly Zone that Zelenskyy so evidently desires…. It seems to me that the Russians are already wary of the Ukrainian air defenses. They're using 'stand-back' weaponry almost exclusively--fighter launched cruise missiles (usually launched from jets flying over Russian or Belarus territory)--ground launched cruise missiles--ballistic missiles (ground launched by definition)--artillery is a big part of it too. The Russians have been wary of losing their airplanes almost from the beginning when they discovered that the Ukrainian fighter pilots were as good as or better than their own fighter pilots. The Russians aren't doing much, if anything, in the way of traditional bombing runs with gravity bombs--gave that up after the first day or so--cost them too many airplanes.
We'd have to extend a No-Fly Zone many miles back into Russia for it have a significant effect.
Zelenskyy almost certainly already knows this, but, for political reasons, he has have the Ukrainian people see him as fighting hard (politically) for their advantage and survival. He has to keep asking us to 'close the skies' over Ukraine--even knowing that won't help his people. It does help his people to believe in him and they need to believe in him; they need to see him trying to protect them as best he can.
The morning news brings word out of Kyiv that the peace negotiations are showing some promise after weeks of going nowhere. I find myself dubious of the proposition that Putin is sincere about taking less than the whole of Ukraine, but I wish them well anyway.
I think that what Zelensky really wants is to bring NATO into the conflict. Not so much boots on the ground but as you said to clear the Russian borders of the massive build up of Russian military equipment.
I have to wonder if Biden has warned him that that kind of wider conflict may threaten his country more than NATO countries as Putin may be more willing to use nuclear weapons there.
They say clear the skies. There really is only one way to do that.
The Ukrainians have launched counter-attacks on the Russian troops on the outskirts of Kyiv, and those now occupying Kherson. They are not, they say, trying to retake lost territory; they're not trying to drive the Russians out, rather they're trying to kill them where they stand. NewYorkTimes (Then they'll fade back into the countryside, and then they'll try to do it all over again later.)
Word's going around that Russia is almost out, or already out, of precision munitions. From here on out it's gonna be mostly rocket and ballistic missile barrages, artillery, and relatively low-flying aircraft firing fairly standard 'aim and fire' air-to-ground missiles (and vulnerable to Stingers).
Unfortunately, that's gonna be quite adequate to keep on leveling residential neighborhoods all across Ukraine's cities.
The Ukrainians have launched counter-attacks on the Russian troops on the outskirts of Kyiv, and those now occupying Kherson.
I was hoping that they would open another front.
The Russians bombed a theater in Mariupol which was being used as a shelter for hundreds of people. So, yeah, a lot of indiscriminate killing.
"The Russians bombed a theater in Mariupol…"
They also captured a hospital on the edge of the city and are holding the staff and patients hostage. (And are reportedly setting up a command center and artillery on the grounds, figuring to use the hospital as a shield against return fire.)
"So, yeah, a lot of indiscriminate killing."
It will also change the calculations on those Polish MIGs. They'll become much more valuable if the Russians have to go back to overflying Ukrainian territory to conduct their air strikes.
If the Ukrainians start putting their own MIGs back up in the air more often that'll be an indication we maybe oughta rethink the value of more MIGs for Ukraine. (I'm fairly sure Biden's gonna go over this again with our NATO partners next week when he's in Europe. I'm also fairly confident the first we'll hear of it is after he's got a consensus on how NATO wants to deal with the issue going forward.)
It'll also make those S-300 batteries Zelenskyy mentioned today much more valuable to Ukraine.
If Biden responds to these changes in Russia's fortunes he will, of course, be lambasted by the Republicans for being 'inconsistent', 'feckless', and 'flip-flopping' and like that.
________________________________
The Ukrainians claim to have killed a fourth Russian general on Wednesday, Maj. Gen. Oleg Mityaev, the commander of the 150th motorized rifle division.
________________________________
American estimates of Russian casualties are 7,000 dead and another 14,000 to 21,000 wounded and out of action. NewYorkTimes
________________________________
Finally: Some of Putin's rambling statements made in the past couple of days leads me to question whether Putin and his 'negotiating team' are working off the same page. The negotiators may be talking about possible concessions Putin has no intention of granting. In fact, Putin's latest public speech on the war might best be described as a little bit unhinged. NewYorkTimes
Zelenskyy was fairly complementary to the United States in his address to Congress yesterday. He even thanked Joe Biden for America's support. (This was met by stony silence from the Republicans gathered to hear him.)
He was not so complementary to Germany's Parliament this morning. They were not much appreciative of his opinion either.
It looks like we are going to be sending Switchblade drones to Ukraine, giving them more of an offensive capability from the air. It sounds like they are basically flying bombs that vs hover around waiting for a good target. Kind of something between a plane and a missile.
'vs' should not be there. *sigh*
Some people have started to emerge from that bombed theater, which had "children" written on it to try to warn Russian bombers away. Didn't matter apparently.
I don't know what Zelensky said in Germany, but the Germans seem to have changed their minds about their defense spending, ramping it up.
Seems to me that Putin has achieved something we couldn't.
The Ukrainians have retaken a small town in the south, capturing Russian equipment which they can reuse.
We might want to remember that Putin's war is premised on the idea that the Ukrainian people don't really exist. Putin's story is that Ukraine traditionally belongs to Russia, and its existence distinct from Russia was no more than a political maneuver, indeed a political mistake, made by the Bolsheviks, a mistake which should not have survived them. (This is bullshit, but it's Putin's version of history in spite of that.)
Putin intends to put that vision into practice in the real world. He intends to snuff out Ukrainian independence. That may well mean snuffing out the Ukrainians, all of them. The Germans had a name for that kind war. They called it vernichtungskrieg, the war of annihilation.
Putin is crazy. But then, I suppose most dictators were.
Biden will be meeting with Xi. What are the odds Xi will listen?
"What are the odds Xi will listen."
Whether Xi listens depends on what Biden has to tell him. Xi is looking at this as an opportunity to improve China's relative global position. I presume Biden is aware of this and will not waste time appealing to Xi's moral sense.
Slovokia is willing to send their S-300 missile defense systems to Ukraine immediately, if they are given credible assurances of replacement defensive systems (not necessarily S-300s). The German Defense Ministry almost immediately tweeted out an offer to send some of Germany's Patriot Missiles to Slovokia, and, of course, everybody knows Biden is coming to Europe, and he'll be able to offer further assurances of missile defense systems to 'backfill' the systems given to Ukraine. (Ukrainian armed forces already know how to use the S-300s so they'd be useful immediately--they'd have to train up on our defensive missile systems and there ain't time for that. But, Slovokia will have time to train up on American-made replacement systems--the Russians ain't ready to invade further west just yet.)
I've been seeing dozens of articles here of late discussing a supposed need to offer Putin an 'off ramp' from his war against Ukraine. It seems to be the conventional wisdom.
I'm not convinced that's a good idea at all.
For one thing, it's the Ukrainians who ought to be deciding whether and what they're going to 'offer' Putin, if anything, to get him to abandon his war. And, they're in negotiations right now (quite possibly Putin isn't engaged there in good faith, but is using the negotiations to provide public relations points). They don't us undercutting their position while they're trying to negotiate a peace deal.
For a third thing… (Yes that ↑↑ was two things.), third thing…. I object in principle to the idea of offering Putin rewards for the criminal behavior his forces have exhibited in Ukraine. (Yes, I hold him responsible for the widespread war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine.)
Finally, it looks like the Ukrainians are winning this war--for the moment anyway. (Just for one instance--the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov I mentioned earlier is still stuck at the Hostomel Airport, which seems to have been the far point of his military advance into Ukraine for going on three weeks now. Politico.EU). I don't agree with the mind-set that tells us to offer Putin rewards for losing a war of annihilation that he started. We should be considering the penalties he should pay instead (wouldn't want to impose too high a price and give him too strong an incentive to keep up the carnage; nor should we be too quick to assume that Ukraine will win in the end--it's early yet--the Russians might yet turn this thing around).
What we really need to be spending all that time and ingenuity on is figuring out how to make Russia understand they're currently losing Putin's war right along side him. (They'll have their own incentives to avoid the inherent penalties that a battlefield military surrender to Ukraine will bring.)
________________________________
I noticed that India has announced it's purchasing more Russian oil than had been planned. They're finding the discounts Russia is offering to be attractive. It's kinda hard to denounce them for that when so many European countries are availing themselves of the exemption for Russian energy products. But, I don't have to like it.
________________________________
Putin's war of annihilation has resumed overnight, and broadened to the west, now including the outskirts of Lviv.
Putin headlined a pro-war rally in Moscow this morning. He was in the process of waxing eloquent (or at least enthusiastic) about how the slaughter in Ukraine was a matter of upholding and defending Russia's "Christian Values" when his microphone suddenly cut off in mid-sentence.
This was later said to be a 'technical problem' by a Kremlin spokesman. Whatever it was, it was the end of Putin's speech. They never did turn his microphone back on.
Lee
” This was later said to be a 'technical problem' by a Kremlin spokesman. Whatever it was, it was the end of Putin's speech. They never did turn his microphone back on.”
He’s bound to be paranoid at this stage. Everyone in his security at high alert and someone sees something, raises an alarm and they whisk him away.
Lee
“ We should be considering the penalties he should pay instead (wouldn't want to impose too high a price and give him too strong an incentive to keep up the carnage; nor should we be too quick to assume that Ukraine will win in the end--it's early yet--the Russians might yet turn this thing around)”
I kinda agree w u there but HOW? I still see a negotiated peace where Putin can claim victory for the home audience wo actually winning anything as the probably best outcome. Not that it’s a fair outcome, I already said I think he needs to get got, but is the alternative is a cornered despot ready to maybe launch nukes… well the alternative could end up much worse.
Well the very best outcome would be a coup inside Russia where they just put Putin up against a wall and shot him, like the Romanians did w Cheaucescu in the early 90s. And then withdrew from the Ukraine, promised to offset some of their gas profits in reparations to rebuild the Ukraine and just cooled the fuck down and began acting like a civilized country.
I just don’t see that happening in real life though.
Btw did I tell you, well I probably did tell you but I can’t remember now if I did, that I went to Romania in the last year of commie Ceauchescu rule in 1989 and then again in February 1990 just two months after they shot that sonovabitch.
Had a gym teacher from Romania who organized skiing trips there. They have mountains, the Karpatians, and they did have ski resorts. We went there the year before and the year after the fall of the Iron curtain when we were in our early teens. It was quite an experience.
Thing is it solidified in my mind from an early age that the western system is so far superior to the old eastern one it’s mind boggling. For one thing how poor and downtrodden the Romanians were in 1989 and then how much progress they hade made in just TWO MONTHS after opening up. Now this progress was only what I saw as instead of empty shelves and only crap or nothing at all to buy there were suddenly goods from the outside. Snickers bars and Pepsi Cola spring to mind but then I was a teenager at the time. And as far as Vodka, it was there both years.
Ursus Vodka. ursus means bear in Romanian, or Russian or whatever. Good vodka.
"Everyone in his security at high alert…"
That may be it. Or, maybe it's something else.
His last televised speech in Russia (Wednesday evening I think it was), he got revved up and enthusiastic and sorta went incoherent, started ranting, throwing in bits and pieces of sentences that never got finished, and then appeared to lose his train of thought entirely for several minutes. (Or so the reviewer I read called it.) Later, when they posted his speech on the 'best of Putin' website with the rest of his speeches, that part had been edited out.
Could be it was happening again, but this time in front of a live audience, and somebody killed the mic 'cause they couldn't edit later.
As for "how", or even 'whether' Putin has to pay a penalty--well, that will depend in the first instance on the Ukrainians and how they finally end the Russian assault. If Russia finally beats the country to pieces and they end it on the heels of long insurgency--that'll be one set of circumstances to deal with. There may be no peace deal ever agreed to in those circumstances. If the Ukrainians actually defeat the Russian army on the ground--encircle them and force them to surrender in the field, that'll be different thing.
But, in the first instance, it all depends on the Ukrainians and what they want out of the deal. They're the ones paying in blood for this right now.
I do think we ought to quit getting out ahead of them with all this talk about 'off-ramps', like it was gonna be our decision. (And if there's anything left for us to decide after the Ukrainians decide what they're doin' then I think we should be spending our energy on figurin' out how to make Putin pay; not how to give him rewards.)
'Ursus' is Latin for 'bear'. Romanian is a 'romance' language (derived from 'Rome', the city; i.e. one of the languages that arose locally out of Latin roots after the fall of Rome). The Russian language does not have Latin roots.
Lee
“ If the Ukrainians actually defeat the Russian army on the ground--encircle them and force them to surrender in the field, that'll be different thing.”
I’ve seen some speculation about that and I get that in the “fog of war” you want to portray your side as victorious and the Ukraine has clearly the upper hand there as basically everything they claim gets replicated and most of what the Russians claim gets surprised or deemed fake news.
Listen, I would LOVE it if Ukraine defeated an aggressor Russian force and forced it to capitulate. And in some news outlets it seems that could in the end be the case. But in reality though… could the Russians be that bad of a fighting force? Were they only a paper tiger? And 8f so when did they become only a paper tiger bc they were for sure a force to be reckoned with in the past.
So I am very much in doubt still about what is real or propaganda coming out of the Ukraine.
Lee
“ The Russian language does not have Latin roots.”
Well the world and it’s languages aren’t all that simple. For example both the Russian word for King, the Tzar, and the Persian word for king the Shah derives from the name of the Roman emperor Caesar.
Also the American chess term Check Mate derives from the Persian term Shah Mat, meaning the king is dead.
Everyone steals language from everyone. You stole the words smorgasbord and ombudsman from us Swedes for instance, and we are in no way significant in the spreading of words.
I shouldn’t even say steal, I should say appropriate. We apppropriate each other’s languages all the time.
I figure it's unlikely the Ukrainians will manage to encircle and force a surrender of a large group of Russian soldiers. Not any time soon anyway. But it looks a lot more possible than it looked just a month ago. I'd call it 'outside possible', unlikely, but possible.
So basically if you’re playing chess w a friend and say Check Mate, it’s not like “I’m ckecking you her, mate”.
it’s saying “your Caesar is dead”, by means of the Persian translation Caesar = shah and dead = mat.
In any case, I mentioned the possibility only as an illustration of one edge of the possibilities and as a lead in to how little it's our decision to be making. We'd be better off not getting out ahead of the Ukrainians' negotiations.
Lee
“ I figure it's unlikely the Ukrainians will manage to encircle and force a surrender of a large group of Russian soldiers. Not any time soon anyway. But it looks a lot more possible than it looked just a month ago. I'd call it 'outside possible', unlikely, but possible.”
It looks to me they are inflicting one hell of a kill count on the Russians. The American Javelines and the Swedish made but British supplied NLAW tank killers seem to do their job. And the Turkish Bakyarat drones seem especially lethal.
Sweden sent in another 5k At4 grenade launchers. Good but not as good as javelines or nlaws, but more of a close encounter weapon. The us marines use them. And now I see the us will supply those switchblade drones… could be deadly as well. If they can be brought into actual combat. I’m unsure about the supply routes. But there ought to be a way of getting them in there I suppose.
Lee
“ In any case, I mentioned the possibility only as an illustration of one edge of the possibilities and as a lead in to how little it's our decision to be making. We'd be better off not getting out ahead of the Ukrainians' negotiations.”
Completely agree. Probably though at this stage it would mean succeeding the Crimea to Russia. Putin is never going to give that up. And in that case he has a point also in that it was “given” to the Ukraine in the Soviet era but was never meant to be apart from Russia. I don’t say I agree w that stance but it’s a solid argument
Then onto the Donbas region of the Ukraine. Putin is claimining he’s protecting them from the neo Nazi ukranians but from what I can tell the vast majority there, even if they speak Russian, side w the Ukraine.
Then the last part, a non nato Ukraine. I believe that is feasible. I don’t even see that NATO would want Ukraine as a member for the foreseeable future. It’s corrupt, it’s poor and it doesn’t control its own borders.
Xi is looking at this as an opportunity to improve China's relative global position. I presume Biden is aware of this and will not waste time appealing to Xi's moral sense.
Yes, I would think that Biden is pointing out the ramifications if China were to intervene. And, indeed, according to Psaki in her news conference, that is the case. As you mention Xi will want to decide on what would be most advantageous to them.
I would think that he is most concerned with his domestic situation, not a foreign adventure that involves other countries. If Russia is greatly weakened, they may not be a good partner. They may be a good "vassal" state to China, though. They still have natural resources that I am sure China, like India, would like to exploit. But what is the opportunity cost involved? That is what he will have to weigh.
I've been seeing dozens of articles here of late discussing a supposed need to offer Putin an 'off ramp' from his war against Ukraine. It seems to be the conventional wisdom.
Hmmm...and I've seen more along the lines that it is too late. Personally I would tend to agree with you, Putin is a liability to his own country. The off ramps, if they still exist, should be offered to Russia.
But I think we are getting ahead of ourselves, the war has turned in to a bloody slog, with Russia bombing civilian targets.
Zelensky is still insistent on the need for planes. But most people are not supportive of a no fly zone. They are supportive of supplying Ukraine with anti-air defense, which would be of help.
Hmmm... a Zelensky advisor speaking on CNN has invited President Biden to Ukraine to meet with President Zelensky. Probably not going to happen.
I think part of the problem with the poor performance of the Russian military is simply that they don't want to be there. In fact they didn't even know where they were in the beginning. That, and of course, the poor maintenance of their equipment. There was a lot of breakdowns even before they entered Ukraine.
They have also lost quite a few senior military leaders. That does not bode well for morale. Nor does the knowledge that people back home won't welcome you back with open arms if you are returned after being captured. The Russians don't seem to even want their dead back.
I shouldn’t even say steal, I should say appropriate. We apppropriate each other’s languages all the time.
We do the same with food.
Gen. Wesley Clark backs sending planes to Ukraine.
On the other hand another commentator, maybe it was the Zelensky advisor, said they have seen more evidence of long rang missiles, suggesting that the Russian artillery in country is not as active. I wonder if they ran out of ammo? Would planes be as effective against missiles?
"Would planes be as effective against missiles?"
That depends on the armaments the planes are carrying and the missiles they're arrayed against.
As I mentioned before, if the Ukrainians start putting their own planes in the air more often, that'd be a tip-off that the style of the fight has shifted to where more planes would be helpful. And that may indeed happen here soon.
Recent polling (not state-sponsored, but supposedly 'respected' independent polling) suggests that Putin's approval rating has take a favorable turn, probably due to the recent propaganda blitz, and is now running at near'bout 70% favorable. WashingtonPost
They need to take out more of the Russian anit-aircraft capability arrayed along their border, I would think, to completely clear the skies.
I still get the impression that the Biden administration would like to get some more planes to Ukraine (if only because they asked, even if the administration is dubious about their utility). But, Biden's kept the Atlantic alliance together by not moving on our own. So, the airplane situation may change after Biden has the opportunity to meet with the heads of NATO this coming week.
Everytime I try your links to WaPo or the NYT they want me to subscribe.
I heard that the people at the rally with Putin were trucked in. Now the question is, was that for the world's consumption or Putin's?
I would take any poll in Russia now with a grain of salt.
"…they want me to subscribe."
I forgot that part.
Disable scripting (javascript) to the top level site (i.e. 'nytimes.com' or 'washingtonpost.com') and it should step right past that sign-up stage (although you're liable to lose the photos' focus on the individual articles for the WashingtonPost, but not on the front page curiously.).
Just those two domains--you can leave javascripting on everywhere else. If you're on a company browser and can't do your own javascript settings, well, I got no other fix for it.
(I can recommend a browser extension (free) that'll make the process simple and easy and one-time. Or, I can explain where to tweak the browser itself on the settings page for either Chrome or Firefox browsers.)
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"I heard that the people at the rally with Putin were trucked
in."
Yes, mandatory attendance by government employees. Buses picked 'em up at work--noted in the WaPo article. The Chinese do it too; the Iranians are famous for it. Big crowds created for the benefit of Russian TV first and foremost, but it makes Putin happy as well I'd reckon.
(The official Russian government poll had Putin's approval rating even higher, up near'bouts 80%.)
Headline: Elon Musk’s Starlink is keeping Ukrainians online…
Turn off javascript to get past the 'subscription' blockage.
Pope Francis has come out in support of Ukraine's defense and critical of Putin's offense. Usually Pope's don't take sides like that. (He also took a veiled swipe at the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church for speaking in defense of Putin's war.)
I imagine Petes would not have been pleased.
The Russians have finally broken into the city of Mariupol. Ukrainians are still fighting--it's tanks in the streets now, firing and taking fire. WashingtonPost
Actually, that's a NewYorkTimes link above--I mislabeled it.
I was able to get in to the articles.
It sounds like the Russians have been snatching people from Mariupol, according to the last one, and taking them across the border into Russia. Not good.
So Russia has used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine. A rather disturbing development.
It looks like Putin's in something of a rush to get the destruction of Ukraine completed. He wants major damage done soon, now, preferably yesterday. I think he's trying to compensate for the collapse of his blitzkrieg plan.
There's been widespread wonder at the sheer incompetence of the Russian military. Now it's beginning to look like Putin hopes to improve Russia's reputation for competence by doing an impressive job of annihilating Ukraine. The sheer scale of the destruction being visited on civilian areas appears perhaps calculated to distract the world from the Russian Army's failure to dominate the battlefield against a much smaller and lesser armed Ukrainian Army.
It's clear that the Russians are targeting civilians, women and children and old people. They're targeting shelters (theaters, gymnasiums, etc. where the displaced civilians have gone for communal shelter). And they're intentionally attacking 'escape corridors' that their negotiators have agreed upon--but usually waiting until the corridors were full of escaping civilians.
On top of that, the Russians are putting their full scope of weaponry on display--cluster bombs, thermobaric explosives, hypersonic missiles and the like.
Of course, we also received word on Saturday from the Turks that Putin was not yet interested in meeting with Zelenskyy. So, it's possible that what Putin's up to is trying to awe Zelenskyy prior to any serious negotiations to end the carnage. Perhaps he wants to make Zelenskyy desperate to stop the slaughter before he starts offering options that might make that happen. The sheer viciousness of the operation may be intended merely to yield a negotiated settlement more favorable to Putin.
And then again, it's possible that Putin's trying to put the fear of Russia into those whom Putin's eyeing as his next victims. Or, he may just be indulging his bruised ego, acting out, all pissed off because Ukraine didn't fold up like he expected. Or, maybe it's a combination of all three, but for sure it's intentional; it's calculated. This is compensation, some would say 'overcompensation' for Putin's opening failure to dominate Ukraine.
Changing the subject briefly… Both of Earth's poles, Arctic and Antarctic, are freakishly hot at the moment, 30 and 40 degrees Celsius, respectively. AssociatedPress
Lynnette
“ So Russia has used hypersonic missiles in Ukraine. A rather disturbing development.”
No not really. A hypersonic missile is just a way to deliver the same payload as any other missile only faster. And since the Ukies don’t have many means to defend against ordinary missiles the Russians using the cream of their missile inventory could actually mean they’re running out f missiles.
Hypersonic missiles are meant to be able to penetrate missile defense systems such as the USs Patriot system. Thereby they are a deterrent in the way they COULD be armed w a nuke and COULD penetrate defensive systems.
The Ukraine have close to zero defense against incoming missiles so using hypersonic carriers there is not needed. Ergo, IF the Russians are in fact deploying them then it’s a sign their missile inventory is getting low. If it’s true it’s actually a positive.
"…it’s a sign their missile inventory is getting low."
Could be they're just showing them off--letting people know they got working now. (And they probably have their weapons techs monitoring their use in Ukraine just as if it were another pre-deployment test run. This is their chance to test 'em in actual combat, work any bugs out.)
I moved the last 3 comments to the thread on the new post as I think they are both good points which are pertinent to that post. I will comment there.
Changing the subject briefly… Both of Earth's poles, Arctic and Antarctic, are freakishly hot at the moment, 30 and 40 degrees Celsius, respectively.
I heard about that. It just shows that while we are focused on the war in Ukraine, there are still very serious issues we have not faced. Those being climate change and also the pandemic, which is still around, despite our best efforts to ignore it. That last is especially true of China.
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