Thursday 24 February 2022

Invasion

Last night the Russian military began an invasion of Ukraine on the orders of Vladimir Putin. This is an unnecessary war of one man's choosing. Putin has ginned up excuses in order to live in the fantasy world of Russian greatness of years gone by. There is no greatness in this action. There is only selfishness.

I stand by the people of Ukraine in their time of darkness.

I leave you with this story. No one could have said it better. These men died heroes.


Audio emerges appearing to be of Ukrainian fighters defending island from Russian warship

From CNN's From Tim Lister in Kyiv and Josh Pennington

An audio clip has emerged of what appears to be an exchange between Ukrainian soldiers on an island in the Black Sea and an officer of the Russian Navy.

All the soldiers — who were defending Snake Island — are reported to have been killed, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

"All border guards died heroically but did not give up. They will be awarded the title of Hero of Ukraine posthumously," Zelensky said.  

At some point on Thursday, a Russian warship approached the island. 

According to the purported audio exchange, the Russian officer says: "This is a military warship. This is a Russian military warship. I suggest you lay down your weapons and surrender to avoid bloodshed and needless casualties. Otherwise, you will be bombed."

The alleged response from a Ukrainian soldier: "Russian warship, go f*** yourself."

118 comments:

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Gonna be a lot more unfortunate Ukrainian 'heroes' in the coming weeks and months.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Off topic:  I noticed that Derek Chauvin's fellow officers were found guilty of violating the civil rights of George Floyd under color of state law (the only federal charges that apply).  Two counts; one for failure to intervene to stop Chauvin (two of the defendants), the second for failure to provide medical assistance to Floyd (all three).  'Bout all the federal courts could throw at them.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Back on topic:  The Russians have essentially demanded an unconditional surrender from Ukraine.  They've said there will be no talks nor terms offered until the Ukrainians surrender.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
And now the Russians are simultaneously claiming to be open to talks with the Ukrainians to be held in Minsk, Belarus.
This is one of Trump's favorite maneuvers.  He says two diametrically opposite things and then chooses later which of them he wants to claim as his position.  Now Putin's doing it.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I noticed that Derek Chauvin's fellow officers were found guilty of violating the civil rights of George Floyd under color of state law (the only federal charges that apply

I agree with this verdict.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Gonna be a lot more unfortunate Ukrainian 'heroes' in the coming weeks and months.

Yes. Stingers, anyone? Or maybe some nice IED's?

We can all learn from each other. Things have changed a bit since the days of The Swamp Fox.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

This is one of Trump's favorite maneuvers. He says two diametrically opposite things and then chooses later which of them he wants to claim as his position. Now Putin's doing it.

Some take their lessons from the wrong teacher. But It's not surprising. Two peas in a pod and like that...

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Chinese Assistant Foreign Minister has taken the public position that it is the United States which is 'responsible' for the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
And China has just lifted long-standing restrictions on the Chinese purchases of Russian grain.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Not surprising. That two peas in a pod thing.

Both the actions of Russia and China need to be remembered. Neither are friends of the West and democratic countries and never have been. While we may be able to deal with them in the future they are not to be trusted.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They are sanctioning Putin now too.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Today's U.N. Security Counsel resolution denouncing the Russian invasion of Ukraine was vetoed by Russia.  China abstained (as did India).

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "…Security Council…"

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
      threatened “military and political consequences” against
      Finland and Sweden if they attempted to become NATO
      members.
      "“Finland and Sweden should not base their security on
      damaging the security of other countries and their accession
      to NATO can have detrimental consequences and face some
      military and political consequences,” Zakharova said during a
      news conference."

      WashingtonPost

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova
threatened “military and political consequences” against
Finland and Sweden if they attempted to become NATO
members.


Now that is rather alarming and seems to back up something that Biden touched on. And that is that this is something bigger than the attack on Ukraine. Finland and Sweden were never part of the Russian Empire. That truly is overreach.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There has been some discussion of setting up a no fly zone over some areas of Ukraine, like was done over over the Kurdish region of Iraq.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It's too bad Marcus is not here. It would be interesting to see what his opinion is.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Finland was ruled by the Russian Tsars for most of the 19ᵗʰ Century.  It was considered an autonomous holding of sorts, a "grand duchy", not an integrated part of Russia proper, but definitely part of the Tsars' empire and subject to their rule.  Before that it had been a frontier region of the Swedish kingdom, but they lost it in the settlement of a war they'd lost to Russia.

I've heard the rumors of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, mostly in articles explaining why that ain't gonna happen this time.

I'd expect Marcus to still be pro-Putin.  Can't say I'd find that particularly interesting.
                           ________________________________

Kharkiv, Kherson, Mariupol, Odesa, Kyiv, the Russians have so far failed to capture any of their targeted cities.
They are reporting fighting in the streets in Kyiv--civilians coming out of the woodwork to back up the outmanned and outgunned military units.  (The Russians have claimed the capture of Melitopol overnight, a small city/large town on the road to Mariupol--although that's not been confirmed that I know of.  If they took it, it's the first significant population center they control.)
It's now gettin' on towards mid-day across Ukraine; so, Russia's gone most of another day without taking any of their targeted cities.  Not the way Putin was expecting things to go I don't think.  But, it's early yet; just into the third day.
And, at least half of the troops Putin assembled have yet to cross over into Ukraine.  This may eventually require Putin to commit those reserves to the fight, but he does have those reserves to throw into it.

And if that doesn't work there is the danger that Putin will pull his troops back and bomb his target cities into rubble.  He might even decide to destroy Ukraine and then pull out rather than try to occupy the angry ruins, go home, and leave it for 'the West' to deal with a destroyed country.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Just saw this from the other thread.

don't see how botching the withdrawal from Kabul can be blown up into a provocation to tyrants and autocrats.

That is not the Afghanistan lesson I meant. It is a much earlier Afganistan that I meant.

I suspect that if Ukraine were to receive the help we sent to that earlier Afghanistan their people would handle the aftermath better. They would and are fighting dearly for their chance at freedom.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I've heard the rumors of a no-fly zone over Ukraine, mostly in articles explaining why that ain't gonna happen this time.

Possibly not, but Medvedev for one seems to think sanctions are a puff piece. Perhaps he thinks we should become involved militarily? Or at least back whatever resistance there is in Ukraine?

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Russia troops have been repulsed all along their chosen battle fronts.  They've ground to a halt outside Kharkiv and Kherson, and been driven back from their furthest penetrations into Kyiv.  So, this morning Putin ordered in those reserves that he had still surrounding Ukraine.  Interfax  All in!
This will more than double the available Russian troops in the fight, but, it means he now has no reserves in case this new offensive gets bogged down as well.
(The Russians claimed that they'd 'suspended' their attack to explore a Ukrainian request for a negotiated settlement, but they'd been beaten back is what really happened.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

He may have an internal problem. It is questionable whether or not the rank and file of his military really know what or whom they are fighting. There was an incident where a Ukrainian civilian faced off against a Russian tank ala Tiananen Square. The tank did not run him over. So how much will is there in the rank and file to fight?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It looks like they are going to expel Russia from SWIFT.

Germany is also going to be sending weapons to Ukraine.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They're going to start seizing the assets of the Russian oligarchs; yacts, houses etc.

They should sell them off and use the funds to pay for weapons for Ukraine and support for Ukrainian refugees.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I'm wondering when Putin's gonna start letting the body bags and the lists of the dead get back to Russia.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "… we should…at least back whatever resistance there is in
      Ukraine?"


Right now it's a war, not a resistance.  But when it morphs into a resistance movement we'll probably still be backing them.

      "There was an incident where a Ukrainian civilian faced off
      against a Russian tank…"


I've read of more than one of those occurring.  But then there was also the incident of a Russian tank driver noticing a man sitting in his car on the side of the road, and the tank stopped and backed up over the car, crushing it just for fun.  (Almost miraculously, Ukrainian citizens subsequently rushed in and pried the man out of the car with crowbars, still alive, still conscious, sitting back up in the front seat, but pinned in by collapse of his dashboard down onto his legs.  Got him out quite obviously alive.  Don't know how much damage was or was not done to his legs, but he was very much still alive.)
Related:  After the Russian government quashed the opening demonstrations against the war in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the demonstrations have begun anew (albiet much smaller than the thousands that turned out on last Thursday night).  The authorities are trying to get out ahead of them again, but they just won't go away.

      "It looks like they are going to expel Russia from SWIFT."

Biden's getting more coöperation by asking for it than Trump was getting by trying to browbeat our allies.  (Although Trump wouldn't be on Ukraine's side here in the first place--so there's that too.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Russian soldiers have penetrated Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, driving close to the city center.  But, as of an hour ago (5:35 am EST) the New York Times was reporting that the advance Russian columns had stalled out and were either on fire, or were being 'ransacked' by Ukrainian troops.  NYT

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
6:58 am EST:  The WashingtonPost is reporting that the Russian advance into Kharkiv has been broken, and the Ukrainian defenders are in a 'mopping up' phase.  Kharkiv, by the way, is a predominantly Russian-speaking city, but no friend to the Russian invasion it would seem.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
And…  The Ukrainians have announced that they're creating a new Ukrainian 'foreign legion' to fight the Russians.  They're accepting applications, starting immediately.

      "On Sunday morning, President Zelenskiy’s office announced
      the formation of a new unit, the International Legion of the
      Territorial Defense of Ukraine, to be made up of foreigners
      who wish to fight for the country."
      Politico-EU

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...
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     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...
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     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Putin has ordered his 'deterrence forces' (i.e. nuclear armed units) into a state of 'high alert' following his reversal of fortunes in Kharkiv. Reuters

(I'll get it right eventually.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
At the same time, Ukraine and Russia have apparently agreed to talks 'without preconditions' at a point along the Ukraine/Belarus border.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Right now it's a war, not a resistance.

For the Ukrainian military it is a war, for the average Ukrainian it is resistance. As one Ukrainian woman said when asked why she was staying, it is the Russians who should leave, not her.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Huh! The former Ukrainian president is being interviewed on Fareed Zakaria's show giving tips on what would help the Ukrainians in their fight and also selling Ukraine as a quality possible NATO member. He's right too! They have real courage.

They have been preparing for this since 2014 and have set up Quick Reaction Forces to respond to Russian moves on critical infrastructure. They moved in when the Russians took the airport outside Kyiv preventing the Russians from bringing in troops through that corridor.

All Russian convoys into the country met with stiff resistance except for the one that went through the exclusion zone around Chernobyl.

They always planned on arming volunteers.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

But then there was also the incident of a Russian tank driver noticing a man sitting in his car on the side of the road, and the tank stopped and backed up over the car, crushing it just for fun.

There are always the psychopaths who enjoy their work. Obviously those need to be eliminated, if possible.

Those who still have a conscious should be encouraged to stand down.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Putin has ordered his 'deterrence forces' (i.e. nuclear armed units) into a state of 'high alert' following his reversal of fortunes in Kharkiv. Reuters

Robert Gates, among others, is questioning the mental health of Putin. I have to admit that I too have been wondering about that. I expected him to nibble at Ukraine, taking the Donbas breakaway region. I realize he always wanted the whole of Ukraine, but this seems rather ill thought out. One wonders if Covid has eaten away at his brain.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Having said that, if an accurate assessment, it makes him far more dangerous.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Robert Gates, among others, is questioning the mental
      health of Putin."


Yeah, been speculations about that for at least a couple of weeks now.  It's finally breaking into "mainstream" media outlets.  (I'd heavily discounted those speculations when I concluded that Putin would not invade Ukraine on account of it would put his gains already gathered at risk--turns out I maybe should not have done that.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Question then arises:  What will the Russian military do if Putin orders them to pull back their troops and then nuke Kyiv?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Russia may have amassed a financial cushion, but it will not be enough. They will be stretched thin, to the breaking point financially. They are still in other countries, which are expensive endeavors.

As long as Putin is in power Russia will suffer.

China will have some difficult choices to make.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Question then arises: What will the Russian military do if Putin orders them to pull back their troops and then nuke Kyiv?

As long as Putin is in power Russia will suffer.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Just a small aside. I actually went maskless in a couple places yesterday. We have been relaxing some restrictions and I kind of forgot my mask. It felt good to experience some kind of normal again, I will admit.

I can only hope that the people of Ukraine will also again experience normal again.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

       
      "Russia may have amassed a financial cushion, but it will
      not be enough. They will be stretched thin, to the breaking
      point"


Related:  The Russians had stored supplies necessary for the invasion close to Ukraine.  But, nobody expected Kyiv to hold out past four days at the outside.  It's been four days and they're still holdin' strong, no sign of imminent collapse there.  Analysts are suggesting the Russians will run clear out of supplies if only the Ukrainians can hold on for another week.  And the Russians don't have the supply chain necessary to resupply as needed.  They'll have hungry troops out there takin' fire from the indignant natives.  Not good for Putin's image.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Just a small aside."

I been watching the risk assessments for the county.  We're still at an official 'moderate risk' level (dropping fast from that last outbreak of the omicron variant).  I'm waiting for it to hit 'low risk' and for the doctors to have time to treat me should I get unlucky at the 'low' risk level.  (And no questions about availability of a hospital or ICU bed should I need one.)
But I have been keeping watch for when I'm gonna start leaving the mask in the little cardboard box.  I'm hoping that day comes soon.

You can check your own county according to the current CDC evaluations here  (Although, I follow a few more risk evaluation sites as well--they don't all agree all the time.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The Russians had stored supplies necessary for the invasion close to Ukraine.

I've read that some of the equipment isn't usable. I have to wonder about food. Not all the people in Belarus are pro Russian either.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Notwithstanding Russia's earlier claim that they'd sent in all their deployed troops, U.S. intelligence believes they've held back about a third of what they originally had surrounding Ukraine (originally estimated at 150,000 to 190,000 soldiers, depending on whether one counts Belarus soldiers or not, plus vehicles and weapons).  So, they've got reserves for a third wave if they want to try it again now that the second wave has seemingly stalled out too.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Not all the people in Belarus are pro Russian either."

Maybe not most of them.  Lukashenko had to call in the Russians to save him after his citizens didn't believe he'd won that last election, six/eight months ago (nor does anybody else).

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I just checked and it looks like they are still listing my county as at extremely high risk, so I will go back to the N95 mask. *sigh*

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I've heard that it is "mud" season in Ukraine and the Russians are having to stick to the roads, as mud and wheeled vehicles don't mix well. There is also news of a 3 mile long Russian convoy heading toward Kyiv. Kind of like sitting ducks if one had the right weapons...

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

  
      "I've heard that it is "mud" season in Ukraine…"

Shouldn't be.  Maybe spring came early to the Ukraine this year?  Or winter never set solid?
                           ________________________________

      "…they are still listing my county as at extremely high risk."

Keep checking in.  They gotta wait for the locals to report the relevant data; system's not set up for them to do their own data collection.  That's part of the reason I was checking multiple sources for the ratings.  They update on different schedules.
We've gone from 'very high' to medium (on the CDC listing) in just the four days since I last checked it out before yesterday.  The omicron wave dissipates quick once the wave breaks.  So, don't despair just yet.
The NewYorkTimes also sponsors a county level readout of risk.  It's not much good for me 'cause this is a rural county, and they don't update us very often.  (In fact, even now they're failing to give the overall community risk level for us, but insist on reporting only the risk for the unvaccinated population and ignoring the rest of us.)
But, you're just outside a medium sized metropolitan area, so you may get better data from the New York Times.

And, of course, your state or county health department probably also sponsors a risk assessment page, if you'll just look for it (one of them should; which one depends on how your state's health departments are organized).  It should be as good or better than all the others.
                           ________________________________

      "There is also news of a 3 mile long Russian convoy heading
      toward Kyiv."


I caught that on the evening news.  I'm wondering if that's the tail end of the second wave or the leading edge of a third wave.  Guess we'll find out soon 'nuff.

Related:  To the extent that Belarus has been a bit player in this conflict, giving safe launch bases to Russian troops gathering for the war in Ukraine, it seems they're now being called on to do more--to join the Russians in full combat partnership against Ukraine.   WashingtonPost  (Suggests to me that Putin's not happy with how things are goin' so far and he thinks he needs those extra 40,000 soldiers Belarus can give him.)
This could conceivably backfire.  Putin had to help Lukashenko put down a rebellion back in late '20/early '21 after Lukashenko's political machine fabricated an offical vote count in Lukashenko's favor.  The citizens of Belarus just might get the notion to try that rebellion thing again if they're called on to fight a war they ain't interesed in fighting to save face for Putin, whom they already don't like very much.  Plus, the Belarus' soldiers also may not be overly enthusiastic about actually fighting in Ukraine.
Putin's takin' a lot of risks here.  Ain't like him.

Also related:  Belarus just approved (on Sunday) a new constitution revoking the country's non-nuclear status (Belarus gave up its Soviet era nukes about the same time as Ukraine did, after the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Lukashenko's already said he might ask Russia to return those nukes.)  Street protests have already broken out.  Reuters  Presumably Putin and Lukashenko should have been expecting the protests over that move and have put in place the necessary repressions to beat them down.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
And, in a sign of things to come, specifically the impending siege of Ukrainian cities, the Russians have released a rocket barrage against a residential neighborhood in Kharkiv.  (Rockets are considerably less accurate than the missiles Russia had been using so far--more of an area weapon.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
In an untraditional move, Switzerland has joined the sanctions.  They've announced the freezing of all assets owned by Putin, Mishusten, Lavrov, and another 364 oligarchs and Putin pals named in the asset freezes already activated by the E.U.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Reuters:  It would seem that Putin thinks the 'peace talks' being held along the Belarus/Ukraine border are merely an opportunity and a convenient venue for Ukraine to surrender and accept the imposition of a pro-Russian puppet government.  (And give up all claims to the two 'breakaway' Donbas provinces and the Crimean peninsula.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

"I've heard that it is "mud" season in Ukraine…"

Shouldn't be. Maybe spring came early to the Ukraine this year? Or winter never set solid?


Maybe I heard wrong or maybe they are a little early, like us. While we don't have mud we do have spring like melting.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Keep checking in.

I signed up for email notification when the rating for Covid changes in my county. Today they just lowered it extremely high. We're not to medium yet. But our cases have been falling so I am hopeful.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Putin had to help Lukashenko put down a rebellion back in late '20/early '21 after Lukashenko's political machine fabricated an offical vote count in Lukashenko's favor. The citizens of Belarus just might get the notion to try that rebellion thing again if they're called on to fight a war they ain't interesed in fighting...

It has occurred to me that if there were any countries unwillingly caught in Russia's "sphere of influence" now may be the time to break free. Not only has the Russian Army taken some hits, and shown to be not quite ready, the Russian economy will not be robust enough to continue to finance that large Russian thumb they are living under.

This does remind me of the fall of the Soviet Union after Afghanistan. But there again I could be wrong.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Putin's takin' a lot of risks here. Ain't like him.

Yes, indeed. If I were in his inner circle I would be starting to worry about what he has gotten them into.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They are talking about the "miles" long convoy of Russian tanks and trucks outside Kyiv. It's been coming for some time. If I were there I would have set up some kind of welcoming committee. Kind of like with the other convoys they sent.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "If I were there I would have set up some kind of welcoming
      committee."


Those sort of convoys are at their most vulnerable when they're hemmed in between taller buildings stocked with folks who can shoot down on them from above.  We've seen several runs at the city centers fail as they get to the city centers, or get close.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Looks like Putin's changing tactics across the board.  The blitzkrieg didn't work out for him; now he's gonna go for bombing the cities into rubble, try to get that accomplished before his logistical problems bite him in the ass.
This change in tactics pretty much guarantees that a bitter partisan resistance will arise after Putin's finally 'pacified' the Ukrainian population.  (And there's a chance, slim chance but a chance, that the Ukrainians will never fold and the Russians might find themselves in a prolonged siege against little more than piles of rubble populated by stubborn fighters, reminiscent of the Kurds holdout in Kobanî, Syria.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Someone I talked to while I was in line at the bank today did wonder why Putin would want something if it was a wasteland.

But one wonders what Putin thinks will happen if he does indeed succeed in occupying Ukraine. This is not Chechnya, the world is engaged to a great degree. Does he think that we will just shrug our shoulders and say, okay, you won and roll back sanctions?

How long before his oligarch friends turn on him?

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "But one wonders what Putin thinks will happen if he does
      indeed succeed in occupying Ukraine."


What he thinks will happen now may not be what he thought would happen last Wednesday.  Now he's also gotta worry 'bout what will happen if he's forced to back down without 'pacifying' Ukraine.  I don't s'pose he was even considering the possibility of that failure last Wednesday.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

  
      "The line of Russian military vehicles stretched along the
      road for roughly 40 miles, far longer than initial estimates….
      The convoy includes armored vehicles, tanks and towed
      artillery…"
      WashingtonPost


I'm having trouble seeing that convoy as intended to 'take' Kyiv.  Can't see any reason to be sending in 'towed artillery' to occupy the city.  Looks more like a force intended for a prolonged siege to me.  Surround the city; cut it off from the world; shell it into rubble; starve the occupants out.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I'm not quite sure why no one has been at the least harassing that convoy. Picking off a vehicle here or there couldn't hurt.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The Russians are warning that they will be bombing Kyiv and the civilians should leave.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I'm not sure why the Russians have not used more air power.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Picking off a vehicle here or there couldn't hurt."

Maybe they are harrassing the column a bit.  A vehicle here and there out of that column might not make the news over here.

      "I'm not sure why the Russians have not used more air
      power."


Partly because the Ukrainians still have active up-to-date air defenses. (Which the Chechens and the Kurds did not.)  Putin doesn't want to lose aircraft.
Also air strikes tend to really piss off the local populations (as we have learned).
Putin started out believing his own propaganda, i.e. that the Ukrainian people naturally wouldn't rise up against him, and he didn't want to force that to happen.  But, he's beginning to come to grips with reality; they are not willing to accept Russian domination after all. He's started to figure that out.  Probably gonna be more air strikes going forward as well as area-wide shelling.  (Rumors are Putin's already used thermobaric explosives and cluster bombs in and around Kharkiv.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Pentagon officials have now said that the miles long Russian convoy plodding along toward Kyiv has 'stalled' short of the city.  No further details on how that happened.  WaPo

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I have heard that the convoy is still where it was yesterday. It could be the Ukrainians had something to do with that. Or it could have run out of gas, both figuratively and literally. It sounds like there are some Russian soldiers who do not want to fight, and seemed surprised that they were supposed to. I can imagine there are some of those in that convoy. There does seem to be an issue with lack of food as well.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I can imagine that someone might have had the thought to let that convoy use up its gas, and other things, before setting an ambush for it.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Partly because the Ukrainians still have active up-to-date air defenses.

I read somewhere that they wanted to buy Iron Dome technology from Israel. So they have been trying to upgrade their systems.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Russian forces have entered the southern Ukrainian city of
      Kherson, but Ukraine still controls the city administration
      building, Ukrainian interior ministry advisor Vadym
      Denysenko said on television on Tuesday."
      Reuters


We have seen before that merely 'entering' a Ukrainian city does not mean the Russians will get to stay.  We'll have to keep an eye on this one.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

  
Putin's supposed to be worth somewhere around $200 billion dollars, more than Jeff Bezos or Elon Musk.  But, the democratic world is supposedly having considerable trouble finding it.
This raises a question:  If Putin is severely weakened politically, will Putin be able to find it?  Will all those people now acting as holders for Putin still be willing to give all that money back when he calls for it?  Or will they decide to just keep it for themselves?  Screw Putin.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Russia claims to have finally taken one of their targeted Ukrainian cities.  Kherson in the southwest, just to the northwest of the Crimean peninsula.
Ukrainian government sources disagree.  They say the city is surrounded, but not yet in Russian hands.  NYT

Elsewhere, the fighting rages on.

The Russians also say they will be having further peace talks with Ukraine today, but can't say what time, or where exactly.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Wednesday
      morning…the approaching convoy [the long one stalled out
      northwest of Kyiv] has been hit by logistical supply chain
      challenges, low morale and Ukrainian resistance."
      WaPo


He's predicting night bombing runs by the Russians (on account of they're losing planes in the daylight runs) and a move to carpet-bombing Ukrainian cities.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I attempted to listen to Biden's speech last night, but unfortunately fell asleep during the part I really wanted to see, the part on Ukriane. That's what I get for being busy at work and staying up late to watch war news.

I will have to catch it on YouTube.

I don't think, from what I heard afterward, that we will be sending planes or troops to Uktaine, which is what they may have been hoping for.

Walking a fine line to prevent WWIII.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

He's predicting night bombing runs by the Russians (on account of they're losing planes in the daylight runs) and a move to carpet-bombing Ukrainian cities


Do stingers need light?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

But, the democratic world is supposedly having considerable trouble finding it.

That's hard to believe.

Will all those people now acting as holders for Putin still be willing to give all that money back when he calls for it? Or will they decide to just keep it for themselves? Screw Putin.

Now that I believe!

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

This leads to a question that had occurred to me...what happens to all of the people Putin has been paying off?

Do their "empires" start to crumble?

You may know the name that I am thinking of.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Do stingers need light?"

Stingers target on infrared, so, technically, the answer is 'yes'.  But they're 'heat-seakers'; they don't need human-visible light.  However, they do need to be shot in the general direction of the aircraft they're supposed to lock on to.  So it's good for the operator to be able to see the plane.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I will have to catch it on YouTube."

If you do that you'll probably miss noticing that Manchin was sitting on the "Republican" side of the aisle during Biden's speech.  (A statement to Biden perhaps?  Or, possibly an entreaty to Manchin's home state voters.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "A recent assassination plot against Ukrainian President
      Volodymyr Zelensky was foiled over the weekend, and the
      Chechen servicemen sent from Russia were ‛destroyed,’ a
      Ukrainian security leader said Tuesday.
      "Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and
      Defense Council, said during a broadcast marathon airing on
      Ukrainian TV channels that officials were recently tipped off
      that a unit of Kadyrovites, elite Chechen special forces, was on
      its way to kill Zelensky. After Ukrainian officials were told of
      the plot by members of Russia’s Federal Security Service
      (FSB)
, Danilov said, the Chechen special forces were killed on
      Saturday on the outskirts of Kyiv.
      "‛We are well aware of the special operation that was to take
      place directly by the Kadyrovites to eliminate our president.
      And I can say that we have received information from the
      FSB
, who today do not want to take part in this bloody war,’
      Danilov said. ‛And thanks to this, the ‘Kadyrov’ elite group was
      destroyed, which came here to eliminate our president.’
      WashingtonPost
(emphasis added)

      Read the full story

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The intelligence that the Biden administration was releasing in the run up to the war was very detailed. It does not surprise me that there are those in Russia who would offer help.

Now if they could just get the correct leader to assassinate, they might actually stop this bloodbath and the needles destruction of two countries.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

needless

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Russians have today overrun the Ukrainian city of Kherson in the southwest, just to the northwest of the Crimean peninsula.  That's the first 'major' city to fall to the invaders.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
WaPo 9:02 pm EST:  A spokesman for the Ukrainian armed forces said that 'the battle [for Kherson] continues' suggesting that they don't consider the current status definitive.  They're thinkin' 'bout tryin' to take the city back from the Russians.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

A small aside...it looks like the Jan 6th commission is saying they may have enough evidence to bring criminal charges against Trump.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I think someone needs to try to take out the mobile artillery as well as those missiles.

Did you see the Russian who was carrying the two grenades through the crowd of civilians? He was asking to be a suicide bomber. The crowd should have backed up so someone with a gun could have taken him up on his offer.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "… they may have enough evidence to bring criminal charges
      against Trump."


They don't have the legal authority to file criminal charges.  Making recommendations is about the limit of it--that and impeachment, and we know how that turned out.
                            ________________________________

      "Did you see the Russian who was carrying the two grenades
      through the crowd of civilians?"


Hadn't been aware of that situation before your mention; had to look it up.
                           ________________________________

Looks like the war against Ukraine has hit a 'grind it out' phase.  We should remember that this did work against Chechnya.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I wonder how many people those yachts they have seized from Russian oligarchs hold?

Might be some temporary housing for refugees.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

We should remember that this did work against Chechnya


Yes, it did. There is a difference this time though. The world is more intensely engaged and I might add enraged. Hard to hold territory when you have no money.

Of course, there is always a wild card. That should be prepared for.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

They don't have the legal authority to file criminal charges.

I don't think they are digging for no reason. One step at a time.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...


      "I don't think they are digging for no reason."

Section 3 of the 14ᵗʰ amendment disqualifies insurrectionists from holding federal office and is enforceable by act of Congress (by majority, not the super-majority requirement necessary for impeachment).

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I found this interest:

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), a multilateral development bank based in China, has put all activities related to Russia and Belarus on hold, the AIIB said in the statement. The projects are currently "under review."

China controls 26% of the voting power of the AIIB, according to the bank's website. Russia has 6%. China spearheaded the founding of the AIIB to rival the U.S.-based World Bank in 2016.


It may mean nothing, but I still found it interesting.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There should be an ing on that "interest".

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Section 3 of the 14ᵗʰ amendment disqualifies insurrectionists from holding federal office and is enforceable by act of Congress (by majority, not the super-majority requirement necessary for impeachment).

Yes, indeed. :)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "Yes, indeed. :)"

That is, however, not a criminal penalty.  (More along the lines of a civil forfeiture as a result of criminality than an actual, straightforward criminal penalty)
                           ________________________________

It seems that negotiators for Ukraine and Russia have agreed to establish 'humanitarian corridors' for civilians to evacuate the war zones.  It remains to be seen whether Putin will agree as well.  I guess we'll find out if Putin agrees only after, if and after, Ukrainian civilians are permitted to evacuate along those corridors without drawing fire from Russian positions.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There was reported incident of Russian forces firing on evacuees.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

In Russia the story of the Ukraine invasion is being reported on Russian state tv as a defensive move by Russia. They are showing pictures of Russian troops handing out food.

Talk about a Big lie. And Russians are buying it.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There is a fire at a large nuclear power plant in Ukraine, which provides 25% of power in Ukraine. It was hit by Russian fire.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...


Even after Chernobyl, a fairly large percentage of Ukraine's power was supplied by nuclear plants.  I think they had over a dozen still producing power when the invasion began.  There's been worries about them since, and several of them have gone offline (unable to staff them reliably).  Putin was predictably gonna target them once he realized that his blitzkrieg was a failure.  (And he had no 'Plan B'--he's had to fall back to the 'grind-them-down' tactics that Russia learned in Chechnya before they finally crushed that rebellion.)

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "There is a fire at a large nuclear power plant in Ukraine…"

The Russians are firing on the firefighters who showed up to try to control the flames, driving them back.  We may have another Chernobyl 'fore the night's over.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I am starting to wonder if Putin is trying to start WWIII..

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The Chernobyl didn't start WWIII; Zaporizhzhia likely won't either.

(I also consider the possibility that Putin will seek out opportunities for the use tactical nukes against Ukraine as his vengeance against them for their rejection of his dreams of a reconstituted Russian empire.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The fire has been put out.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
The NewYorkTimes reported that the fire actually "went out".  May be awhile before the parties get done with the finger-pointing over the scare they gave everybody and we find out what actually happened there.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Putin has personally requested the removal of sanctions against Russia on the dual grounds that "Moscow had ‛absolutely no ill intentions with regard to our neighbors.’"  And that the Russians are actually the aggrieved party there.  WashingtonPost

I'm surprised he even mentioned it in public without blustering about how Russia could withstand anything and simultaneously bury us in nukes if he chooses.  An actual request, a polite request even; this is not typical behavior for Putin.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Looks like Putin is going to allow a seven hour respite from shelling for two 'humanitarian corridors' from two southern Ukraine cities, Mariupol and Volnovakha.  Refugees will be fleeing on any conveyance they can arrange, and food, water, and medicine are supposedly going to be allowed in.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

       
      "The evacuation of civilians from the shellshocked southern
      Ukrainian city of Mariupol has been halted because of
      continued Russian shelling, the city administration said in a
      statement on Telegram on Saturday afternoon.
      "‛The Russian side is not upholding the cease-fire and is
      continuing to shell Mariupol and the surrounding regions,’ the
      city administration said. "

      NewYorkTimes @ 6:16 am CST:

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Whyvon earth did they think they could trust Putin?

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
TheFederalist magazine (as in lately infamous 'The Federalist Society') is now arguing that since the Biden administration isn't going to 'save' Ukraine it should instead be doing what it can to force Ukraine into accepting a Russian 'peace' deal.

I believe we may see here the germ of the newest Republican Quisling position on the war between Russia and Ukraine.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
Putin has upped the ante a little bit, announcing that he's willing to obliterate Ukraine as an independent state, annex it into Russia entirely NewYorkTimes if the Ukrainians do not sue for peace in fairly short order, and allow him to install a puppet government loyal to himself.

(Along with his earlier request that The West should lift sanctions, this suggests that he may be already worried about how long his forces can last before burning through their ability to sustain a war on Ukrainian territory.  If they start to peter out it's likely that'll be an incurable problem for him.  I think he needs to win soon, before his forces run out of supplies and find they cannot restock quick enough to keep the Ukrainians from counter-attacking.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Putin has come out and said that a no fly zone would be considered as the participants engaging in the war.

He also likened sanctions of oil as an act of war.

His reaction to a no fly zone was to be expected. His reaction to an oil embargo is, while not surprising, is more a declaration of war on his part. The world has a right to shop where it will.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There appear to be some backdoor talks being conducted using Israel as the intermediary.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I will say this for Putin, he has managed what no one else could. He has unified sentiment on Capitol hill on an issue. Amazing.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Also, rather scary that I may have implied something that Lindsey Graham later said.

I, of couse, would prefer a conviction at a war crimes tribunal for Putin.

It would be a waste of a good bullet.

     Lee C.  ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
      "I may have implied something that Lindsey Graham later said."

But, Graham's mistake was the saying of it, and saying it directly, in effect, soliciting the activity.

And I don't think it'd be a waste of a good bullet.  I'd figure the bullet was put to good use.