The
wind whispers through the trees and the leaves scuttle down the road
with a manic desperation as if in warning. You must run!
You must hide! For it is All Hallows' Eve, the night of the
dead, when out of the shadowy mists of time rise the demons of hell
searching for the souls of the unwary. Witches stir their
cauldrons casting their spells of enchantment, vampires scratch at
the window panes of the innocent looking to quench their thirst, and
werewolves prowl the night stalking their prey.
Get
your attention? I couldn't resist. Why is it that so many of us
love to scare ourselves silly with the supernatural? Throughout
history we have devoted countless hours to books and movies depicting
the occult. Perhaps it is that delicious rush of adrenaline we
experience when we are afraid? Or is it that stepping out of
reality and into fantasy provides an escape from the day to day grind
of the mundane? Whatever the reason, we have found a natural outlet
in Halloween.
Samhain is the early Celtic festival our modern day holiday of Halloween, or
All Hallows' Eve, derives from.
Here
in the States Halloween is best known for trick or treating, which is
a common practice, with kids scurrying from house to house intent on
collecting as much loot (candy) as possible. In Minnesota we have one town which is the self proclaimed Halloween Capital of the World , with numerous acivities , including the Grand Day Parade, which lasts
three hours. I kid you not. Woe to the unlucky who make the mistake
of forgetting and are caught in town when they block off the streets.
The parade's original purpose was designed to give kids an
alternative to playing tricks or pranks, which had gotten out of
hand. And from there the celebration just grew and grew. For a
kid it was always an exciting time, marching in the Big Parade of the
Little People, and watching the floats and marching bands in the Grand Day
parade. Dressing up in costumes and running around in the dark from
house to house looking for the house with the best candy was the
highlight of the celebration. I'm not sure which I enjoyed more,
the dressing up in costumes or the hunt for candy. Lol!
For
most people Halloween is merely an opportunity to have some fun.
They have long since forgotten the reasons for some of the customs.
But there are still those who believe in things beyond our physical
reality, and for them a ghost story may be more than a story. So, if anyone out there happens to run into something inexplicable, this
is for you...
Happy
Halloween!
120 comments:
First!
(Okay, so there's only the four of us posting, nevertheless…)
Lee C ate my hamster!
Lynnette -- Halloween Capital of the World? Renaissance Festival? Who's running the place over there ... the Lollipop Guild? :) :) :)
One of the first things we learned in Irish at age five or six, along with the days of the week and the months of the year, was the word for Halloween. Oíche Shamhna ("EE-Heh HOW-Nah"). Since the name for the whole month of November is Samhain ("SOW-an") we knew the two were somehow related. But it seemed a bit strange having a "Night of November". It would be a bit like calling New Year's Eve "the night of January". They didn't teach us about the Celtic pagan festivals back then. It was just a curiosity that three of our month names -- Bealtaine, Lúnasa and Samhain (May, August and November) remained strangely un-Romanised while most of the rest got the Roman chop -- Eanair, Feabhra, Márta, Aibreáin, and so on. It seems there were certain annual parties the Celts wouldn't relinquish, even while the old gods were being heaved back into the lakes and bogs where they came from! :)
...the Lollipop Guild?
Shhhhh...they're the ones hiding behind the curtain. :)
lol!
Here Halloween is mostly for young kids, although some of the trick or treaters I've handed candy out to are taller than I am! But both the Renaissance Festival and Halloween have been marketed to death by anyone wanting to make a quick buck. And since families with kids will spend money on entertainment they have been geared to appeal to them. For most responsible parents creating a "Lollipop Guild" type of environment is creating a safe environment. :)
If you are looking for the darker fare, that you will find in movies, such as Friday the 13th or Carrie. I didn't bother getting into Satanism or other fringe types of behavior. There is enough of that with daily coverage of ISIL's latest attrocity. For children growing up in that environment I feel nothing but sorrow. :( That is no way for children to live.
Gotta run, I'll check out the links in the other comments section later.
Yay! Finally managed to actually spot the computer clock ticking over from 2am to 1am. Sunset tomorrow 5.05 pm. By Wednesday it'll be 4.59 pm. If that ain't winter I don't know what is!
On the other hand, our weird weather pattern persists. The jetstream, with upper altitude winds up to 180 mph, blasts the Irish west coast and takes a sharp handbrake turn northward. By the time you get to the east coast (bearing in mind our "sea to shining sea" is 175 miles at the widest point), warm air is getting sucked up from the south and batting the Atlantic lows away to the north. So for the next two days we're expecting stiff warm breezes in the high teens Celsius, while barely a hundred miles to the north, Northern Ireland and Western Scotland get up to eight inches of rain!
We don't get a front breaking over the east coast until Friday, just in time to spoil the Halloween bonfires. It's the sort of weather the fire brigade prays for! :)
In the US we turn our clocks back on Nov. 2. I know, I know, it's the start of winter and it means it's dark earlier, but I still love that extra hour. For that one day I get a little extra time to do something for me, rather than running around doing chores. This year I think leaf season is winding up a littler earlier. Or so it seems, anyway. I have been vacuuming and grinding up every other day this week. I just have the front yard to pick up tomorrow and then I will be done, except for various strays and some last minute mowing in the coming weeks. But the trees are pretty bare now, ready for that blanket of white, which I know you are anxious to see evidence of on the blog. ;) The neighbor just fixed the snow blower today and I have new tires on the car, so hopefully I am ready.
Your wallpaper goes nicely with my post, btw. Bats and witches always go so well together on Halloween.
So far our weather has been absolutely beautiful. You couldn't ask for nicer.
I wasn't sure if we were still a week out of sync with your clock change. Wasn't it one of the Bushes who changed it years back, to save oil (apart from a few States who have always done their own thing)?
I do remember taking a plane to the States one time and forgetting the clocks changed the night before the flight. Ended up at Heathrow being told if I could sprint down to the gate with my own case, they just might let me on. That happened to be one time I was carrying a large set of iron cookware for friends in Denver :(
From Lee's article in the previous comments section:
Mr. Barkal urged the FSA to open a second front against Islamic State in the northeast of Syria rather than reinforcing Kobani.
I'm no military strategist, but I would think that sounds like a good idea. I have heard that the Syrian Kurds had reached an agreement with the Iraqi Kurds for there help in defending Kobani. A second fron would make sense.
Our trees are far from bare yet. Lots of them are still green, in fact, although most have started to turn. I might do my annual leaf watching drive some time next week before the rain washes everything out at the end of the week.
Sounds like the Iraqi Kurds have been making gains in north western Iraq too.
I don't remember who made the change, but it sure has played havoc with electronic things that were set to change automatically. It can be annoying to realize that the time has changed when it wasn't supposed to! :( Although as time goes by and they get replaced the time change is adjusted to the different schedule.
That happened to be one time I was carrying a large set of iron cookware for friends in Denver :(
LOL! Murphy's Law.
Yes, there has been some good news on Iraq and some bad news out of Egypt.
"LOL! Murphy's Law."
No, Murphy's Law was when I plopped down, panting and sweating beside a none-too-happy fellow passenger, and then proceeded to spill the in-flight chicken korma all over myself. If it was today I'd probably be quarantined for a month on arrival ;-)
Meanwhile in Russia, the country switches from summer time to winter time tonight for the first time in three years. And this time they'll be staying on winter time for good (no more DST). They also (re-)create two new time zones. (1, 2). Oh, and they want to ban Halloween. (3)
...then proceeded to spill the in-flight chicken korma all over myself.
ROFL! Now that sounds like something I would do!
Hey, those Russians do some cool costumes. But Halloween isn't really American, now is it? They do seem to obsess about us a little.
I guess "trick or treating" is American. Sometime in the last four decades or so since I last did it, the kids here started "trick or treating". For us, even down to the tiniest tots, the refrain was a sing-songy "Any apples or nuts? Cigarettes or butts?" ... I don't think we ever actually got any cigarettes or butts. (We had to supply them ourselves, down by the bonfire).
Apples, except maybe dipped in caramel, and nuts are far too healthy for any self-respecting trick or treater to go after. And cigarettes or butts wouldn't even be considered, even for the most hard core gang-banger. Candy rules the roost. Everyone has a sweet tooth. :)
My favorite was just about anything chocolate.
My Mom used to do homemade caramel corn balls before someone ruined it by tampering with Halloween candy. So anything homemade was only given to kids we knew and who knew we were trustworthy. There's always at least one crazy that will screw up even a kid's holiday.
I am seeing the light at the end of the leafy tunnel I have been traveling down for the last week. Only the apple tree has a good quantity of leaves left to shed. So I think next weekend may be my last pickup. Of course it may take me a couple of weeks to get rid of all the bags I have leaning against the garage. They will only pick up yard waste in the containers they provide or bio-degradable(paper) bags. I have been storing in plastic bags what won't fit in the containers for the last week, and have about 8 bags to get rid of. Apparently there was a run on the bio-degradable bags Saturday at Home Depot so they were all out when I checked. *shrug* Oh well.
I did get my Halloween lights up and I am well stocked up with candy, so I think I am all set for all the little creatures that walk the night. :)
Speaking of waste pick-ups ... I'm going to have to go looking in the wheelie bin (I think you call it "dumpster diving"?) for ... uh ... the TV remote. It hasn't been seen for some hours, and there's a strong suspicion it fell in the waste paper basket which, of course, was emptied into the trash at just the wrong time, and dumped. Mercifully, it's in the "green" waste, so not quite as disagreeable a job as if it was sloshing around in the potato peels and last night's spare ribs. Fortunately I don't really watch TV except for news, so the job can wait til tomorrow. Right now I'm writing an assignment on electromagnetism, and another on programming in 'R'.
Our weather continues to be ridiculously balmy. At midnight there was a moderate breeze blowing, and a temperature of 18 Celsius! Southerly points may see 20 degrees over the next couple of days, while northerly points need to prepare their rubber dinghies.
Home price drop in 69 of 70 Chinese cities
That wallpaper you put up looks really cool on a wide screen monitor.
I know someone who lost her keys in the dumpster at work, (no it wasn't me Thank God!), and did have to literally go "dumpster diving". Fortunately everything was bagged, so it was just a question of moving things around until the keys surfaced. That is something I've always been afraid I'd do as I usually drop off my garbage on my way to the car, and have the keys in my hand.
In our bathroom at work our storage cabinet is on the wall above the toilet, which has always seemed to lend itself to...ummm...unfortunate accidents with keys and toilet paper. And sure enough one of my co-workers ended up having to go fishing for keys she dropped. Fortunately it was just water...but still...glad it wasn't me. :)
There was an article in my paper yesterday about both Europe and China and the fears over both region's economies. I can't find it now, but I did find this older article about deflation fears in Europe. While the US has ended QE they have decided not to cull the balance sheet of assets they have purchased, which in effect acts as a bit of a stimulus as well, in that it lowers the supply of bonds relative to demand.
Aaargh! The time on my phone at work automatically moved back an hour. I was going to leave it, as it will change next week, but I know that would drive me crazy, so I changed it back. Annoying.
Turkey Delays Peshmerga Reinforcements?
"While the US has ended QE they have decided not to cull the balance sheet of assets they have purchased, which in effect acts as a bit of a stimulus as well, in that it lowers the supply of bonds relative to demand."
Isn't that dangerous too, though? People are talking about a bond bubble. When yields go up, bondholders will get screwed. Equities will drop too so there'll be nowhere to run.
The so called experts have been worried about that for some time now. It would affect bond mutual funds of longer duration the most, which is why they have been recommending holding shorter duration funds. People holding individual bonds, that aren't looking to sell on the secondary market, will still get the interest and principal returned if the bond is held to maturity. But of course there would be the opportunity cost of not having that money readily available to invest at the higher yields.
Yes, stocks can be hurt as well. Lately our market has been rather volatile with some wide downward swings. Although it has gradually been creeping back up again. I try not to look. :)
Hopefully most people can ride out the gyrations, but for anyone nearing retirement it is a concern, because they may not be able to make up the losses. And, of course, for anyone living off their investments it can be rather scary, as you may have noticed. :(
I see that ISIL has pulled out the human shield tactic in the fight for Kobani. Apparently they have put the British journalist they are holding on a rooftop of a building in Kobani.
Most individuals aren't invested in actual bonds of a specific term, though. They've probably bought into a bond fund. As you say, the values of the bonds (especially the longer dated ones) have to go down as bond yields rise. Meanwhile, other risk assets are buoyed up by the flood of cheap money and the lack of alternatives to generate returns. So the equity markets are in a bubble too. The question is ... how long is this going to last? How does the Fed break the vicious cycle, with signs of panic every time they hint at raising rates?
The whole thing is bonkers. Rising rates are supposed to be a sign of improvement in the economy, and yet equities are now negatively correlated with rates. You have something similar in Europe ... the more we head toward deflation, the more the markets think the ECB will have to introduce something akin to US-style QE, and stocks go up! I guess Europe looks like what the US would look like without QE... or at least what it would have looked like in 2008. The question is has the US benefitted in the intervening six years or does everything reset when QE is reversed. Right now, it seems to me that the US economy has improved somewhat ... but at what cost? The rich have creamed off the proceeds of the equity bubble, while wages for the middle classes have stagnated.
"for anyone living off their investments it can be rather scary, as you may have noticed. :("
I'm in an odd situation. Realising that the equity markets are in a strange (and potentially volatile) situation, I've steered clear of them, thereby losing out on a lot of growth (except for one mad high-risk bet which I'll tell you about if it comes off ;-).
But because of the unevenness in the fallout from the financial crash in Europe, and the monstrous size of the property crash in Ireland, we ended up with an odd situation for a couple of years. Eurozone interest rates were at rock bottom, but Irish banks, being dodgy as hell, were forced to pay hefty rates for deposits. Since we had already hitched the sovereign to the banks by bailing them out to the tune of about 40% of GDP, I reckoned any major bank failures would become a sovereign failure and the ECB would have to ride to the rescue to avert any such outcome. So I felt perfectly safe setting up a mix of three to five year term deposits, locking in the high rates.
The two flies in the ointment since are a) the Cyprus emergency, in which Eurozone depositors got bailed in (oh crap!), and b) the Irish rate of tax on deposit interest was doubled, so I now pay 45% of every cent to the gubmint.
In spite of this, I've got quite a healthy income for the next two to three years without having to take any real risk. No idea what I'm going to do after that, but I can take my time figuring it out. Meanwhile Euro deflation suits me just fine. The spending power of my euro is holding up very nicely, as long as the economy doesn't go completely to hell in a handbasket. US trips might get a bit more expensive, but then the strengthening dollar is good for our exports :)
Yeah, I think they suggest around $50,000 for a good bond ladder, and most people don't have that kind of cash laying around, so they stick to funds. But if you stay short than the risk is minimized.
Really a lot of people have been suggesting cash in the form of term deposits, or what may be called certificates of deposit. But rates are rock bottom. I had a 5 year CD mature in August and forgot about it, so it rolled over for the same term. The rate? .50% per year. The penalty for early withdrawal, since the duration is so long, would eat into the principal, so I will leave it. If rates were to rise quickly it might be worthwhile to take the penalty, but they would have to go up fairly quickly, and high, for it to be worth it.
It will be interesting to see if the equity markets have factored in rising rates and will shrug off the ending of QE. One would think as the economy heals the stock market will maintain some strength. A correction of 10% is quite normal and is somewhat overdue. It is actually healthy because it gives people a chance to purchase stocks "on sale". But if you don't have a long time horizon that could hurt, so it is best to be in cash if you are going to need the money within the next 5 years.
The rich have creamed off the proceeds of the equity bubble, while wages for the middle classes have stagnated.
I think other people have benefited from the rising value of equities, not just the rich, because most of the working middle class have investments via their 401k's or Simple IRA's. But those who are making minimum wage are struggling, even though the minimum wage is being raised gradually over the next few years. What would benefit them is a stronger economy that would allow them to move up to higher paying jobs via some kind of job training either on their own or through an employer.
45% tax on interest? Ouch! We'd scream bloody murder if we had to pay that here.
I don't know if you'd like real deflation. You're looking at a Great Depression style of economic activity then. That's not good for anyone.
I don't know what your time frame is for finishing school, but perhaps in 2 to 3 years you could go back to work if you wanted/needed to. At least if you have a cushion it will give you some options.
"I think other people have benefited from the rising value of equities, not just the rich, because most of the working middle class have investments via their 401k's or Simple IRA's."
I reckon you US-ians are still well ahead of most of the world in terms of self-administered investments. 401k-style pension liberalisation happened much later in the day here. Lots of people here would have pension investments that they know little or nothing about. As a result they've been taken to the cleaners for high administration and hidden fund charges, and many investment returns are pretty poor even over the best part of twenty years. (In Ireland, even the government helped themselves to a percentage of those funds by way of emergency legislation after the crash ... needless to say it's taking longer they they promised to wean themselves off that addiction). I gave up on pension-style investments as a result -- I've a moderate pot that might be worth something in future, but I'm not banking on it.
I fancy even in the US, though, there are less people able to afford to put funds by for retirement. Certainly that has been reported in the last few months: allegedly a third of the middle class have no retirement savings.
"45% tax on interest? Ouch! We'd scream bloody murder if we had to pay that here. "
Yep. Two years ago, at the start of my grand plan, it was 25%. The increase has hurt a lot. Unlike payroll taxes there are no deductibles either. :(
"I don't know if you'd like real deflation."
Definitely not. I was playing devil's advocate. Low inflation is definitely not hurting though.
"I don't know what your time frame is for finishing school, but perhaps in 2 to 3 years you could go back to work if you wanted/needed to. At least if you have a cushion it will give you some options."
I kind of finished school last month. Waiting for results now (probably end of November). However, I had a few withdrawals symptoms so I signed up for some more course,running until June. Don't need to for qualifications though, just for fun.
Regarding financial cushions, the annoying thing is that unless there's a period of very high inflation, I don't need to work ever again unless I want to. If we get inflation, going back to work mightn't help much anyway. I gave up work at my time of absolute highest earning potential. I'm not complaining -- most people have a lot more uncertainty to deal with :)
"…if the bond is held to maturity."
Sounds a bit old school.
Presume that was written with a certain irony. What was it somebody said about every financial derivative invented since 1900 being unnecessary to the functioning of the economy...
Just now Swedens Riksbank lowered the interest rate from 0.25% down to zero. The reason was we're undershooting the target of 2% inflation and rather have deflationary tendencies in our domestic economy instead. That's it then, the interest weapon has been used to its full extent and this rate reduction can maybe puff up that housing bubble just a little bit more. There's been a 10-15% increase again this year and we have reached new heights.*
Where to be invested? For lack of any attractive options I decided back in June to sell off 2/3 of my stocks and keep some in cash but spend the bulk on repaying my housing mortgage. Possibly a "dumb" thing to do since the rates on the loan are so low now.
But at least a loan repaied they can never give back to you. So paying off debt is basically the safest investment.
And to be debt free is kind of reassuring since I believe we owe a housing crash here in Sweden. It will hurt me too when it comes but not that much, and I might even be positioned to gain from it in the longer run by being one in a minority who will be credit-worthy and have some liquidity left when the prices hit bottom and it's time to buy again. Maybe.
*Check out this graph below. It's the swedish housing prices mapped against "fundamentals". The top line BNP is GDP. The second, and IMO most relevant line is for disposable income.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-XEdqxCAfBLM/VDPfUURUetI/AAAAAAAAbc8/v1V-aruF0x8/s1600/bostadsratter_1980-2014p.png
Now does that look like a bubble or what? Note the "bubble" in 1990 when we had our last "financial crisis".
If I could sell my apartment and rent I really should do so now and sit this one out completely. But I'd be forced out in the suburbs and I'd rather suffer a blow to my purse than reside there. No way.
Another thing to look for in that graph: notice the small dip on the 2008 bar compared to 2007. That was our reaction to the US financial crisis.
And in 2010-2011 you have the Greek-crisis that kept prices steady here. From 2011 until now we've had a whopping 25% increase again.
Looking at this now it looks worse than I was ready to admit the last time me and Pete compared housing markets.
Marcus, that is I.N.S.A.N.E!
What's the vertical index -- it's way to low to be kroner per square metre, and unlikely to be euros. Some kind of index? What does kpi mean? (not the obvious English acronym I presume).
Looks pretty much like our housing bubble, just offset by seven years. The funny thing is, on the website I found by Googling your image, they're all criticising the blog host for crying wolf back in 2011, just like we had around 2000-01. Also, saying that interest rates are going to stay low for years, so nothing to pressage a sharp decline. Just like we heard over and over in Ireland. The problem was, the whole system was so rotten and so detached from fundamentals (contrary to what was being claimed) that it only got worse as we had to wait for an external shock to trigger the reset. In our case that was the US subprime mortgage crisis and credit crunch. It came eight years after people first started crying "bubble".
And that's your problem with trying to time things, even if you were prepared to move to the suburbs. You can't guess when things will go into reverse. You don't know how far they'll fall. You don't know when they'll bottom out. In Ireland, if you'd sold in, say, 2004 (five years after the first "bubble" claims) you'd have waited another three years for the "crash". Except it wasn't a crash, it was a market in suspended animation as volumes of property sales fell 90%. It took five years to bottom out, at about -60% (-70% for apartments). Then, because all house-building activity had ceased in 2007, we immediately did a hand-brake turn into the next bubble, with prices now up 30 to 50% since 2012. So if you sold in 2004, waited out the crash and missed the momentary bottom, you'd be buying back in now after ten years and saved nothing ... and the crazy thing is we're already anticipating our next crash!
On the other hand, don't let anyone tell you this is "normal" or "the fundamentals are sound". That graph is screaming that it's all going to end in tears. Just a matter of time.
Scrap the question Marcus -- I got a Google translate of the relevant page. I think KPI is Consumer Price Index, and the vertical scale is an index on which 1970 prices are normalised to 100. So these apartment prices are nominal, i.e. not adjusted for inflation, changes in CPI or disposable income ... have I got that right? Are the prices averaged for all apartment types across the whole country?
Ok, I can see it's averaged across the country. Still wondering if it's nominal prices, I think it is.
Here's my Google Translate of the page.
The early 90s "crisis" looks almost laughable compared to what's gone on since. In Ireland, people were saying we should have emulated what Sweden did with its banks back then. Looks like you stoked a far worse bubble (like we're trying to do now too). And like us, according to your graph, the last crisis had barely ended before the seeds of the next one were sown.
Pete: "I think KPI is Consumer Price Index, and the vertical scale is an index on which 1970 prices are normalised to 100. So these apartment prices are nominal, i.e. not adjusted for inflation, changes in CPI or disposable income ... have I got that right? Are the prices averaged for all apartment types across the whole country?"
Correct on all guesses. Average prices across the country depicted nominally with the starting point of index 100 in 1970. The price increases are larger, or worse if you will, in larger cities.
Pete: "The funny thing is, on the website I found by Googling your image, they're all criticising the blog host for crying wolf back in 2011"
Not all but a large enough number of people. The two sides in their extreme call eachother "mortgage-johns" (as in a john being a hooker-customer) versus "rental-muppets" in the forums.
Pete: "On the other hand, don't let anyone tell you this is "normal" or "the fundamentals are sound". That graph is screaming that it's all going to end in tears. Just a matter of time."
I know. I believe we are at or close to the apex of a bubble curve. That's why I paid off all debt myself. Because who knows what the consequences will be from this.
I also have moved most remaining assets away from the Krona and mostly into Dollars because I foresee a plummeting Krona if/when our bubble pops and the swedish banks' balance sheets are hit with an avalanche of bad loans.
Pete: "The early 90s "crisis" looks almost laughable compared to what's gone on since."
The comparasion is a bit misleading because the severity of our 90's bubble was largely due to specualation in rental properties, such as warehouses and industrial parks. So even if this time it looks like about 2.5 times worse the banks are not 2.5 times more exposed in reality.
But sure if you isolate private housing it's about 2.5 times worse today.
And I myself, as I said, base that on the curve for disposable income which I believe is in the end the most relevant one to compare with. In 1990 the housing index had outpaced the disposable with a factor of about 2 since the starting point. Today prices have outpaced income with about a factor of 5.
I like this model myself:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Rodrigue#mediaviewer/File:Stages_of_a_bubble.png
Found it on that same blog btw. It's the most visited economics blog in Sweden.
Of course that's not how all bubbles play out but I believe it's important to be aware of things like beartrap/bulltrap and also to be aware of the fact that value in any asset can fall in the extreme.
Take Ericsson, the Swedish once leading mobile-phone company. In about 2000/2001 they had a large share of the mobile phone market and were leading in mobile networks. Traded at 300 kr per share. That fell as low as 3 kr per share after losing out to Nokia in the mobile phone contest and because the IT-bubble popped. Still it's in the end a solid company and is now back trading around 100 kr per share.
Now, if you had told the people owning Ericsson at 300 that they might lose 99% of their investment I'm sure they would have laughed you off. They might have known there was a risk the stock was over valued but they would never had guessed it could fall so much.
I have come up against the same reasoning here with friends who recently bought houses and "agree" their house could fall somewhat, say 10% in value, but refuse to even consider the idea the value might be cut in half.
Of course, with friends, you can't really press the issue because you don't want to be responsible for any choices/changes they make (what if you're wrong?).
Lots of people here would have pension investments that they know little or nothing about.
Just because people have 401k's or Simple's doesn't mean they are well informed about them.
As a result they've been taken to the cleaners for high administration and hidden fund charges, and many investment returns are pretty poor even over the best part of twenty years.
There is still that problem here with company administered plans. If you don't have someone within your place of work that is well informed they can still choose investment companies that charge the higher fees, giving you a lower return on your investment.
I have always taken an interest in investing and looked for the lower cost funds as a matter of practicality. Now everyone recommends the index funds or ETF's(exchange traded funds) as a way to get a higher return. But except for a couple I have stuck with the actively managed funds, simply out of laziness, I guess. Perhaps I have missed some opportunity there.
(In Ireland, even the government helped themselves to a percentage of those funds by way of emergency legislation after the crash ...
There is always that concern here that if we start to deal with our debt issues they will look at adjusting taxes on some investments.
I fancy even in the US, though, there are less people able to afford to put funds by for retirement. Certainly that has been reported in the last few months: allegedly a third of the middle class have no retirement savings.
Very true. If you don't put any money into anything then you will have no return and no cushion. That is a real concern. People, if they are able, will have to work longer to make ends meet. Some people are starting to get creative. While some of these people are just doing the "work camper" thing to finance their travels in retirement, others are doing it because they need the money. As long as you are healthy it works, and may actually help keep medical bills lower by promoting a more physically active lifestyle.
Low inflation is definitely not hurting though.
I guess it kind of depends on where you are at in life. As long as you have a steady income from somewhere life is probably good. But if you are looking at finding fixed income investments to finance your lifestyle the low interest rates hurt.
Don't need to for qualifications though, just for fun.
I've always thought if I had the freedom to choose I would take more college courses in subjects that interest me. But since I don't have that option I read when I can, browse the internet, and talk to you guys. :) (I also still lurk over at Zeyad's and I miss "talking" to him as well. At least when he wasn't acting crazy.)
Regarding financial cushions, the annoying thing is that unless there's a period of very high inflation, I don't need to work ever again unless I want to.
lol! Annoying? Most people would find the idea of never having to work again to be liberating. :)
If I were in a position of having enough put aside to be comfortable I would probably get into some kind of charitable/volunteer work as well as taking college courses. I would try to keep active, anyway. :)
[Lynnette] "…if the bond is held to maturity."
[Lee] Sounds a bit old school.
You got that right. That came directly from someone who called the mortgage crisis before it happened. He was warning about the banks' lending practices long before the bubble burst. He was right.
If I could sell my apartment and rent I really should do so now and sit this one out completely. But I'd be forced out in the suburbs and I'd rather suffer a blow to my purse than reside there. No way.
Why?
Marcus,
I think you are smart to try to be debt free, and paying off debt can be a better return than any fixed income investment.
But...
I have come up against the same reasoning here with friends who recently bought houses and "agree" their house could fall somewhat, say 10% in value, but refuse to even consider the idea the value might be cut in half.
Are you prepared to ride out the value of your investment dropping by 50
%?
Lynnette: "Why?"
Because I'd rather take a shot to my bank account than risk a shot to my forehead. That's why.
The problem here is we have a housing shortage as well as a housing price bubble, and the former inflates the latter. There is basically nothing to rent in a decent neighborhood here. And where there might be something to rent it's a shitty, shitty place to live if you want to live by the standards I'm used to, as in no regular gun-fire and a safe place to walk outside past 7PM.
Lynnette: "Are you prepared to ride out the value of your investment dropping by 50%?"
Yes. Primarilly since I bought it at about that price already. I'd not lose any actual money but just the price incease since then.
Second: I'm looking at moving UP on the property ladder. So in reality even if my current apartment lose 50% and my next house also lose 50% I will gain from that, since I'm moving to a more expensive object.
I know the REALLY good thing to do would be to offload my current apartment at a high price and to enter the market again when it's crashed. But first of all I need to live somewhere. And second, like Pete mentioned, it's not easy to predict WHEN that crash will come.
It will come, I'm sure of that, but I though likewise in 2009. That's 5 years ago and it hasn't come yet.
Inside ISIS
The problem here is we have a housing shortage as well as a housing price bubble, and the former inflates the latter. There is basically nothing to rent in a decent neighborhood here.
That sounds like you have another issue besides the housing bubble. I remember you talking about the construction industry in Sweden. Wasn't there some kind of issue with a few builders monopolizing the sector?
I'd not lose any actual money but just the price incease since then.
That's kind of what happened when I sold the Bank of America stock I had. Because I chose to take the dividends in cash over the years rather than reinvest them in the stock I actually broke even. No, not a bad thing. That's the only stock I chose to do that with too. Must have been fate. :)
It will come, I'm sure of that, but I though likewise in 2009. That's 5 years ago and it hasn't come yet.
Yes. Battening down the hatches is a good thing.
Lynnette: "I remember you talking about the construction industry in Sweden. Wasn't there some kind of issue with a few builders monopolizing the sector? "
Naw, maybe a bit of an issue. The bigger problem right now is that building rentals is just not profitable. Whereas building for people who do buy at these inflated prices is hugely profitable.
So what we DO need from the societies' standpoint is a large increase in affodable rental units. But what IS being built is really expesive units for purchase.
It's also got to do with a large part of society (admittingly or non-admittingly) participatig in white fligt right about now.
You simply DO NOT BUY in areas where you fear the next asylum-ghetto will be established soon. Even the most liberal minded "goodness-junkies" will no do so. They want their "goodness" and the "multiculturalism" it results in to be the task of OTHER swedes to deal with.
That's a huge issue also.
On that topic: I can't tell you how much I HATE politicians and pundits that enscone themselves in white-only enclaves and then get up on their soapboxes to promote multi-culti for the rest. I HATE them, I wish them severe harm. I wish them hell!
That does seem to be a rather hypocritical stance. It would be fodder for opposition candidates if it happened in the States. Sort of like the politicians who preach family values and have a mistress on the sly.
A Peshmera convoy has left Erbil several hours ago on its way to Kobanê. CNN 161 Kurds with some ‘semi-heavy’ weapons, artillery mostly. VOA news article on the same subject.
The winefalcon has posted the entire text of an article he says he does not endorse on account of not having an opinion on the subject, but posted it in its entirely nonetheless, which claims that the African Ebola outbreak is a U.S. Department of Defense project, that the disease cannot spread on its own, and the the International Red Cross is intentionally infecting people in the afflicted countries, one at a time, by injection.
@ Lynnette,
PBS Frontline is running a 60 minute program titled ‘The Rise of ISIS’ this week. It's on my TV tonight. I don't know if it's worth the time or not, but they do some good stuff sometimes.
...claims that the African Ebola outbreak is a U.S. Department of Defense project, that the disease cannot spread on its own, and the the International Red Cross is intentionally infecting people in the afflicted countries, one at a time, by injection.
ROFL! What idiot wrote that? No, no, I'll have to go over and look later on. Seriously, talk about being part of the problem by adding to the hysteria!
Thanks for the PBS tip, Lee. I usually like their stuff. I'll have to check it out tonight. :)
Oh, yeah, I saw that about the Kurds. Hopefully they will be of help.
I watched the special on the rise of ISIS and I come away with three feelings.
The first is that Maliki has a lot to answer for, to the point that I am starting to think criminal prosecution would be warranted.
The second is that the Obama administration has not done enough in the past to deal with the situation in the region. But then I had already thought that, which is something we have disagreed on in the past, Lee. I also think that Obama needs to get over his distrust of his military leadership.
The third thing is that the Sunni community was very much caught between a rock and a hard place and it is easy to see why they have risen up against the Baghdad government. But in allowing ISIS to take the lead in the fight they have unleashed something that is just as brutal as anything the region has experienced in the past.
Oh, I guess there is one more thing, this subject really deserves a post. But I can't do that until Halloween has passed. I will think about it.
Orbital Sciences stock on sale now!
Might not be a bad time to buy. They'll be back.
Saw that. As well as the spectacular launch pad video, someone's already posted amateur aerial footage from a Cessna 177 on youtube. Good viewing (you're allowed enjoy it for unmanned crashes ;-)
"The second is that the Obama administration has not done enough in the past…"
I believe you've left that thought only half formed. ‘Not done enough’ of what? You seem to have maybe succumbed to the ‘do somethings’ once again.
So far as I can tell:
1. We've flushed out Erdogan's Islamist government in Turkey. It's not just us that's got a problem with his game now; even the Europeans have almost figured it out. (Even the peasants who might have bought into the tales that Turkey was some sort of special and ‘staunch ally’ of America have probably begun to figure out what's what there.)
2. We've got the major European powers, Britain, France and Germany supporting actual, real military activity against the jihadi threat, mostly because…
3. ISIS has switched back from what had been the al-Qaeda re-focus on the ‘far enemy’ (that would be us), to fighting mostly inside traditional Arab lands against traditional Arab enemies (that would be anybody within close reach, a category that just happens to not include us.).
4. We've got the Gulf State Salafi governments actually bombing their own bastard children (although how long that'll last is anybody's guess, it's nevertheless a good sign for as long as it lasts).
5. And, while all this is happening the price of oil has actually dropped rather than blown up out of sight!
All this strikes me as good stuff.
We need more military leadership ya reckon? I'm not so quick to go there. Good military leadership had us bogged down in the middle of it. I'm much happier with standing back, bidding our time and picking our shots, picking targets of opportunity when the opportunities present themselves, and let ‘em tire themselves out on somebody else. (I do support keeping the Kurds properly fed, armed and even defended as the need arises; at least, for the foreseeable future; they seem to be the only reasonable and reliable allies in the region.)
Syrian Kurds from the YPD, have entered Kobanê after transit through Turkey, apparently in advance of any Peshmerga getting there. It looks like the Peshmerga will be arriving shortly. (Erdogan has allowed about 200 YPD fighters to pass through Turkey; although he's not yet managed to produce any of the 1,300 Arabs that he had threatened earlier, perhaps that threat has passed. It seems Erdogan may have blinked first.)
I guess that's YPG, not YPD.
Lee: "The winefalcon has posted the entire text of an article he says he does not endorse on account of not having an opinion on the subject, but posted it in its entirely nonetheless, which claims that the African Ebola outbreak is a U.S. Department of Defense project, that the disease cannot spread on its own, and the the International Red Cross is intentionally infecting people in the afflicted countries, one at a time, by injection."
I wonder why he posted that crap. If he wants to be taken seriously on other matters that post sure doesn't help.
"Wed Oct 29, 11:14:00 am"
That's too easy. I'm gonna just walk on by.
Vox estimates ISIS has lost 4,000 men in the assault on Kobanê, to 500 Kurdish losses. (They admit to more than a little lack of confidence in the numbers, but it's been a disaster for them on the head-to-head numbers nonetheless.)
1. We've flushed out Erdogan's Islamist government in Turkey.
I have yet to decide if Erdogan is a passionate Islamist or a passionate anti-Kurd zealot (as in the PKK) who will do anything to screw them over. Is he now allowing the Kurdish reinforcements in because of pressure from various people or because he sees the writing on the wall with ISIL's "errant" rocket strikes and the kidnapping attempt against the Syrian rebel commander and his son?
2. We've got the major European powers, Britain, France and Germany supporting actual, real military activity against the jihadi threat, mostly because…
3. ISIS has switched back from what had been the al-Qaeda re-focus on the ‘far enemy’ (that would be us), to fighting mostly inside traditional Arab lands against traditional Arab enemies (that would be anybody within close reach, a category that just happens to not include us.).
I am more of the opinion that the Europeans have become more involved, not because of the fight within the ME itself, but because of the affects it is having on citizens within European countries. There have been a lot of recruits from Europe who have joined the fight, giving rise to fears of terrorism back home. And even if these recruits are not fundamentalist Islamic converts, ISIL"S activities are drawing out fringe elements who are willing to carry out violent attacks, such as we just saw in Canada. As General Dempsey pointed out in that PBS show, if ISIL consolidates their Caliphate in the ME, Europe is the next nearest enemy to go against. And apparently ISIL is run by fundamentalist Islamists, despite what the Ba'ath may think, who seem to have an agenda of spreading their version of Islam far and wide. Or so it seems by their recruiting in foreign countries.
4. We've got the Gulf State Salafi governments actually bombing their own bastard children (although how long that'll last is anybody's guess, it's nevertheless a good sign for as long as it lasts).
As long as this involves only the extremists within the region, it is a good thing, but if you have more and more moderates sucked into the abyss all you have is one big sectarian war causing the loss of countless lives and scarring generations of children. That is not a good thing.
5. And, while all this is happening the price of oil has actually dropped rather than blown up out of sight!
I think the drilling in the United States has something to do with that, although OPEC has not lowered production to maintain higher prices.
We need more military leadership ya reckon?
What I think we need is a President that is willing to listen to people who are more experienced in the region in question and/or who have had experience fighting there. That may include both military and civilian advisers.
You seem to have maybe succumbed to the ‘do somethings’ once again.
Nah, not once again, I've always suffered from them. :)
I wonder why he posted that crap. If he wants to be taken seriously on other matters that post sure doesn't help.
Marcus, the Saker is a Russian "shill" or propagandist. By putting that disclaimer before the post he's is apparently distancing himself from the article, yet by posting it he is planting the seed of doubt. A very clever trick, but a trick none the less.
"I have yet to decide if Erdogan is a passionate Islamist or a passionate anti-
Kurd…"
These are not mutually exclusive positions. He could easily be both. However, I suspect his support for ISIS, while it seems real enough to me even if he is reluctant to go open with it, is rather less a ‘passion’ than is his hostility towards the Kurds in Turkey.
"…the Europeans have become more involved, not because of the fight within
the ME itself, but…"
I think we can both agree that the Europeans and the regional Sunni governments are only in this because they see ISIS as an even greater threat to themselves than it is to the United States. They see that correctly. They'd still like to maneuver us into handling it for them, but that's not looking like a safe bet for either of them. We can live with a prolonged conflict over the areas ISIS now controls, and ISIS is unlikely to advance much further.
"I think the drilling in the United States has something to do with that…"
So does the global economic slump, and the fact that ISIS is currently in control of only minor oil supplies. The Saudi, and the rest, are now more concerned with keeping their monarchies going, which requires money, than they are with effecting the international order.
"…but if you have more and more moderates sucked into the abyss…"
I don't see a whole lot of moderates operating in the region. The so-called Syrian ‘moderates’ are generally moderate only in comparison to the very public brutality of ISIS. They're quite happy to murder Christians, Kurds, Shia, Alawites and other minorities themselves; they just don't post it on the internet.
Lynnette: "Marcus, the Saker is a Russian "shill" or propagandist."
It does increasingly seem that way. I don't think he's a paid propagandist but more and more he seems to be an ideological shill - yes.
Lynette: "By putting that disclaimer before the post he's is apparently distancing himself from the article, yet by posting it he is planting the seed of doubt. A very clever trick, but a trick none the less."
A very stupid trick IMO. Counter productive if he means to reach those who are not ideologically invested aleady.
(ideologically invested like you, Lynnette, tend to be in all matters that concerns the US)
However, I suspect his support for ISIS, while it seems real enough to me even if he is reluctant to go open with it, is rather less a ‘passion’...
They serve a purpose for him in fighting Assad and the Kurds. If they threaten him then any support he has for them will vanish like the wind.
I think we can both agree that the Europeans and the regional Sunni governments are only in this because they see ISIS as an even greater threat to themselves than it is to the United States.
Yes, I agree. They would not be fighting if ISIS weren't seen as a threat to themselves.
They'd still like to maneuver us into handling it for them, but that's not looking like a safe bet for either of them.
It would be certainly less expensive to get someone else to do the dirty work. But we really can't handle this for them, not alone anyway, there are too many internal problems within each country itself. We can only help.
We can live with a prolonged conflict over the areas ISIS now controls,...
This is where I am not sure I agree with you. While we are far away geographically we are still subject to spillover, either via the refugee issue or the domestic terrorism issue.
So does the global economic slump, and the fact that ISIS is currently in control of only minor oil supplies. The Saudi, and the rest, are now more concerned with keeping their monarchies going, which requires money, than they are with effecting the international order.
Yes, I agree.
A very stupid trick IMO. Counter productive if he means to reach those who are not ideologically invested aleady.
I suppose it depends on what he wants to reach them for. He will no doubt catch the more gullible.
(ideologically invested like you, Lynnette, tend to be in all matters that concerns the US)
Perhaps it may seem so to you Marcus because I have been responding to people who I perceive as only seeing my country in a bad light, which I see as unfair.
If you mean I really believe this...
We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed,...
...you would be right. Do I believe that the US has always lived up to those ideals...no, I do not. But I'm not going to give up on them because they have not always been perfectly adhered to.
"This is where I am not sure I agree with you."
Well, I'm sure we'll have further opportunity to discuss it.
Hmmm...probably not a good place to talk about Halloween decorations, despite the original post.
Some other things people get up to at Halloween.
Marcus, have you seen this report from the Housing Crisis Committee of the Swedish Housing Federation? The Swedish version should be easy to find.
House prices and homelessness increase together...
http://www.salon.com/2014/10/28/7_cities_that_are_playgrounds_for_the_rich_and_nightmares_for_the_poor_partner/
I had not read that report but I just skimmed it. Looking at the conclusions it seems I agree with most of it, but I don't have high hopes that it will be realised.
The part about stopping "segregation", you can't force that on people. It won't work. Rather deliberate segregation is one important driver behind our housing bubble. Young families are prepared to pay whatever the cost, absolutely every penny they can afford, to avoid certain schools for their own kids, for instance.
Like I said, I think there are for the most part reasonable suggestions but they won't be realised soon. Maybe in the future they will, but first we will have to go through that crash-phase I foresee.
I'd like to get on record before any of you point out the fact that Sweden has just become the first western country to recognise a palestinian state.
This is an executive decision taken by a weak leftist minority government. It would not have gotten through our parliament, but apparently the new government could sideline parliament.
It's not a decision I agree with, nor do a majority in Sweden would be my best guess. As long as Hamas holds sway in Gaza I am of the opinion that any nation-state recognition should be off the table completely. Frankly it's shameful for me, this.
Pete: "House prices and homelessness increase together..."
It might be a dangerous trend we're seeing. The extreme inequality might very well lead to uprisings, especially if the trend continues.
Perhaps not in NYC or London but when I read that the insanely rich in Jakarta are predicted to grow rapidly in numbers while 40% of Indonesians get by on less than $2 a day - well, that could get nasty. Fertile ground for an Indonesian Lenin, possibly.
A rather lovely song here.
I confess...I stole it. :)
But the Americanised version of Halloween casts a long shadow...
It's the candy, you know it is. Kids love it, so the marketers play it up. In truth, if you gave away something too healthy you'd probably get TP'd (toilet paper all over your trees and house). :)
It looks like you guys know how to have fun too though.
But my earlier comment was referring to the cemetery that the neighbors across the street have put in their front yard. They made me jealous, I think I may have to go ghost shopping. :)
Der Spiegel article: The Marxist Kurds are the good guys and the capitalist Kurds are better than worthless, but not much.
Kurds: Can't tell the players without a program
Lee, that Der Spiegel article was good. Perhaps this is the answer to our question of who to ally with in Syria.
Here is a current Thomas Friedman article about Iraq. It's interesting, but I think rather limited in that it poses a question without giving a very good answer. Yes, only focusing on ISIL will not solve the issues in Iraq because there are still the problems with Iran, so what is to be done about their influence on the Iraqi government?
It's late, I will have to read the last article tomorrow.
"…so what is to be done about [Iran's] influence on the Iraqi government?"
I'm not sure there's anything to ‘be done’ by the West. But, neither am I sure there's much reason to worry about it. I'm of the opinion that both Iraq and Syria are done for as nation-states with their current borders. Zeyad's gonna get his ‘Sunnistan’ across that border. After that, Iraq's Shia Arabs will find a new relationship with Persian Iran. I don' think we can predict what it will become; too many variables.
Thanks for the Kurdish "map", it was a nice refresher.
As much as I admire the Kurds and their bravery at Kobane, I still think they would have problems even with an official Kurdistan. That's not to say it shouldn't be attempted, but the reality may not be as shang-ri-la like as they may think. They still have their differences, which they have put aside at this time to fight ISIL.
Also, as much as I can sympathize with Zeyad's Sunnis and the treatment they have received by the Shia government of Iraq, they too will have problems with their Sunnistan. The main one being income. As I understand it the main oil fields of Iraq are down south or in the Kurdish region. So that means if they want a share of that, they will have to have some say in one or both of those regions. As in, they need to be part of Sunnistan.
None of them are getting it yet. The dreams they have are only setting them up for continual fighting between someone.
Yes, I understand that the borders between Iraq and Syria may be re-drawn by the choices the people in the region make. But that is kind of irrelevant when compared to the choices they must make in the governments they set up.
The extreme inequality might very well lead to uprisings, especially if the trend continues.
That does seem to be the usual end result. While I don't see violent change like that happening here in the States either, the extreme gap between rich and poor could lead to more extreme swings in election results. It will be interesting to see what happens after next Tuesday (our mid-term elections).
Fortunately for me Michele Bachmann is not running...:))))))
Speaking of, apparently she isn't popular with them either. Well, while I don't agree with her, I don't think a death sentence is the answer.
Off to find some ghosts...
"As I understand it the main oil fields of Iraq are down south or in the Kurdish
region.
There's at least one big oil field around Mosul, which is currently held by the Islamic State. The ethnic mix seems to be variously reported at various places, but Sunni Arabs are likely the largest ethnic group, maybe even a majority. (I think there's general agreement that they're a solid majority in "downtown" Mosul.) Nevertheless, I think the area is quite likely to end up as part of the Kurds' domain when this thing sorts out.
Meaning Sunnistan will be left high and dry with no revenue.
We had 64 trick or treaters last night, a light turnout. It was 28F at around 8:00. Too cold.
Errands and chores to do all day today. I only got to the back yard yesterday so will have to do the front today as well as check the eave trough again. But the leaves are just about done.
"Meaning Sunnistan will be left high and dry with no revenue."
Sunnistan will almost certainly begin its life under the control of ISIS or maybe al-Nusra (still al-Qaeda). No revenue is a good thing.
"We had 64 trick or treaters last night, a light turnout. It was 28F at around 8:00. Too cold."
We had about twenty, scurrying about in between heavy downpours. I was pleased to see that only about half were "trick or treating", while half were "Happy Halloweening". It's a lot more genteel than when I was a nipper. Nobody was out and about alone, not even the odd twelve year old trying to pass for younger, like we used to do in the hope of money for cigarettes. It was all tiny tots with parents lurking at the end of the driveway, holding umbrellas. All part of the modern culture that never lets kids loose to get up to mischief. Not that I'm complaining for myself -- I'd hate to have the little terrors getting up to the stuff we used to. But it must be a real drag for parents and kids alike, now that every activity is full time chauffeured and chaperoned. My friends' kids always seem to be missing some sort of spontaneity (which is only partly a euphemism for dangerous and illegal activities ;-)
We didn't have the record high temperature Halloween that the south of England had. And it suddenly seems very wintery (in our usual mild, wet kind of way). Lights on all day today.
It appears that ISIS is pretty much ‘bogged down’ in Kobani. They can't break the defense and overrun the remaining Kurdish garrison, and they won't give it up. This is grim news for the Kobani defenders, but good news for just about everybody else (except, of course, for the jihadis themselves). Reuters
Israeli newspaper Al Haaretz says the Kobani Kurds are coming out of their defensive crouch and are now contemplating a counter-attack, a breakout and pushback on ISIS.
(Recent publishings have indicated, by the way, that ISIS got to part of ‘one air-drop’ of material. Part of it got blown up from the air; part of it ISIS got--I've never figured out how big was either ‘part’. That's one air-drop out of twenty-eight separate "drops". Not a bad result overall.)
I seem to have screwed up the Reuters link. Here's the right one. Reuters
All part of the modern culture that never lets kids loose to get up to mischief.
So that's not just happening in the States? I look at people with young kids and their efforts to seemingly schedule every waking moment and wonder if we aren't creating people who will be unable to be alone or entertain themselves.
Sure we got into trouble, but we survived. We also learned creativity and a certain amount of independence.
My friends' kids always seem to be missing some sort of spontaneity...
Exactly.
But maybe we are not the first generation to worry about the generations that follow?
It appears that ISIS is pretty much ‘bogged down’ in Kobani. They can't break the defense and overrun the remaining Kurdish garrison, and they won't give it up.
Thank God that our opponents appear to make mistakes too.
Although I do hope that we have been watching their activity in other areas as well, because ISIL is known for its diversionary tactics.
"…because ISIL is known for its diversionary tactics."
They seem to have run out of expansion in Iraq too. They needed continuing victories to keep their current story line going. However, it won't take them too much effort to switch the PR campaign to one of ‘defending the Caliphate’ against the ‘infidel onslaught’. Some time back, on Zeyad's blog, I predicted a protracted and bloody semi-stalemate somewhere near the current battle lines. I'm still going with that prediction.
The group has executed a total of more than 300 tribe members in the past few days, Ga'oud and the official said.
Albu Nimr had held out for weeks under siege by Islamic State, but finally ran low on ammunition, fuel and food.
This is a complete waste and mistake on either the GOI's or our part.
"…somewhere near the current battle lines…"
Except, the Kurds will drive them back out of Mosul, probably with a lot of American air support, to deny them the oil fields, if for no other reason.
Some time back, on Zeyad's blog, I predicted a protracted and bloody semi-stalemate somewhere near the current battle lines.
Possibly so, but then we end up with just another failed state, or continual fighting on a par with Israel/Palestine, which leads to more extremist activities.
"This is a complete waste and mistake on either the GOI's or our part."
This area was an enclave fairly deep inside ISIS' territory. No practical way to defend it (from our point of view). Too bad for the locals, but wasn't logistically a good place to be.
Gotta run, I've chores to do before I go for lunch and a play this afternoon.
No practical way to defend it (from our point of view).
Not even a couple of air drops?
"…or continual fighting on a par with Israel/Palestine, which leads to more
extremist activities."
Nah, the Muslims will get tired of it after four or five years; somebody'll decide to settle it, at least for awhile. They just don't get tired of screwin’ with Jews.
"Not even a couple of air drops?"
Still not practical after a couple of air drops. Just puts off the day when… Waste of the effort. This is gonna take awhile; too long for them. Kobanê had a possible alternate outcome; the Turks relented in the end. No way to get that dynamic working here.
FSA routed by ISIL
by ISIL?
Kurdette isn't real.
by ISIL?
Nope, you're right, it was al-Nusra who rolled them up like wet paper towels.
I am starting to type ISIL automatically it seems.
Kurdette isn't real.
It is the internet, fake stories abound, I'm sure. I remember the one about the young Syrian girl who turned out to be an older American man. At least this girl was actually in Kobane, at one time.
Oooooo, nice wallpaper. I was thinking about this the other day. Halloween is so passe now. But I was busy on Sunday and too tired in the evening to even think about a new post. Hmmm...
Post a Comment