I know I have been focusing on
the Ukraine War for many of my recent posts. But it will have long
reaching consequences for all of us. Not just because of the
shocking loss of life and destruction of infrastructure but because
it has laid bare something that perhaps many of us did not realize.
I speak of the way in which people see events. We have experienced a
little of that here in the US with our political divisions. But in
the case of the Russian invasion of Ukraine we see delusion taken to
an even more extreme degree that has resulted in this horrendous
conflict.
These
interviews were conducted in Russia by, I have to say, a very brave
group of people. This video was very difficult to watch. Because
after watching it I came to feel that I might have been being too
generous with the people of Russia, giving them a pass for being
deluded by the propaganda of their government. This video made me
realize that perhaps there are those in Russia who really support the
atrocities committed by their government.
I know there are
many people who do not support Putin and his war. But it is those
who do that are a real danger, not just to their own country, but to
the world. Those who dare to speak out deserve respect.
The reality that is,
or was, Bakhmut. This video is a month old. So I fear that some of
the people in it may not still be with us. This video is only available on YouTube, but there is a link within the window. Or, if you prefer, you can go there and search for "The Battle for Bakhmut" by Vice News.
I would wish that
some of the people in the first video could meet some of the people
in the second. But I fear that there is little hope that it would change their mindset.
79 comments:
I wasn't able to understand the restrictions by YouTube on the second video. There was nothing there I could see justified an age restriction.
________________________________
From the last thread:
"Putin seems to be confident that he has enough ammo…"
He thinks they'll just switch over to using up the older, imprecise shells and rockets that Russia's got stockpiled in abundance. He figures to go back to an earlier era, using a 'carpet bombing' pattern of area saturation fire.
It has been noted by others that his early training as a Soviet intelligence operative, basically a terrorist in a suit, did not well prepare him for his current role as "Supreme Commander-in-Chief" (a Soviet era appellation last used in public by Leonid Brezhnev, but now commanded for use when referring to the Holy Putin in his military aura). So, he may be in for a bit of a surprise when attempts at 'carpet bombing' attract guided, precision fire onto his artillery batteries and onto the newly revealed stockpiles of older ammo.
This is especially likely if the Ukrainians have the longer range ammo by then that they probably should have had already.
________________________________
I'm seeing hints in print that the Wagner group has very nearly burned through their available supply of convict cannon fodder in Soledar (and also thoroughly exhausted their professional soldiers) and is not currently able to reconstitute a follow-up assault against Bakhmut. (Supposedly Russian regular army is already moving to fill in the developing gaps there.)
I wasn't able to understand the restrictions by YouTube on the second video. There was nothing there I could see justified an age restriction.
I thought that rather curious myself. I don't recall seeing it on past Vice videos. And they have been around since at least Iraq. They have always been a little more people oriented, getting personal accounts.
So, he may be in for a bit of a surprise when attempts at 'carpet bombing' attract guided, precision fire onto his artillery batteries and onto the newly revealed stockpiles of older ammo.
It sounds like the Russians have been busy moving their ammo stockpiles farther behind the lines to keep away from Ukrainian guns. One more reason that the longer range missiles would be useful now.
I'm seeing hints in print that the Wagner group has very nearly burned through their available supply of convict cannon fodder in Soledar...
I've seen a video purporting to show ex-prisoners returning to Russia after their 6 month stint is done. Probably advertising for a new batch of cannon fodder.
"I'm seeing hints in print…" ↑↑
Past the point of 'hints' in print now. They're writing it out explicitly and quoting sources; Wagner's losses around Bakhmut are being filled by regular Russian Army troops.
________________________________
"I've seen a video purporting to show ex-prisoners returning
to Russia after their 6 month stint is done."
There are those who question whether they've been properly prepared to reënter civil society. NYT Sociopaths with untreated PTSD; perhaps not a formula for successful reintegration.
________________________________
Biden said yesterday (in answer to a reporter's question) that we were not going to send F-16s to Ukraine. Simple, one-word, "No".
There are those who question whether they've been properly prepared to reënter civil society.
I doubt that Russia is prepared for any of the returning soldiers and their problems, be they mental or physical.
Sociopaths with untreated PTSD; perhaps not a formula for successful reintegration.
I think there are some Russian's who are also questioning this.
Biden said yesterday (in answer to a reporter's question) that we were not going to send F-16s to Ukraine. Simple, one-word, "No".
He is very succinct at times. I suspect that I have been underestimating Joe Biden. For all of his quiet manner he gets things done in the end. I don't believe he wants Putin to succeed. Perhaps the reporter asked the wrong question.
"… he gets things done in the end."
Plus, he's not Trump. And I'm still solid #NeverTrump.
"Perhaps the reporter asked the wrong question."
Perhaps so: But, turns out nobody, neither the White House Press Office nor his National Security Councilors, nor the State Department showed the least bit of interest in clarifying or expanding upon Biden's ‛succinct’ answer.
I have also seen suggestions in print for the U.S.A. and/or NATO to prepare some of the available F-16s just in case--get 'em fully refurbished (longer before they need routine maintenance) and updated with the best available battlefield tech against Russian planes, and have 'em ready to hit the skies all shiny and new when the time comes, if the time comes.
(I hope you're right about Ukrainian pilots already getting training on F-16s. I hadn't heard that, but it sounds like a real good idea to me. Personally, I think it'd be good to let the Ukrainians take Crimea back--then give them F-16s to help cover their exposure out there.)
One thing I really like about Biden is that he is not out and about constantly shooting off his mouth, like Trump. He knows when to lay low.
Yup still a never Trumper. Also a never DeSantis.
"Also a never DeSantis."
Well, I've vowed to vote against all Republicans up and down the line, until comes the day the party repudiates Trump. I don't give a damn if the office is for County Dogcatcher. I will vote against all Republicans everywhere until the Party repudiates Trump.
We can include DeSantis among those for whom I will not vote. (But, he'd have made the list on his own merit even in the absence of that vow.)
Yes, I also voted straight Democratic last election and will do so in the future if things remain as they are with the Republican Party.
Looks like McCarthy has made good on his word, stripping Ilhan Omar of her committee and denying Swalwell and Schiff committee seats. He has also reinstated Greene and Gosar giving them committee seats.
Childish, much?
Please, give us adults in government.
Meanwhile, Putin has said that Russia has something to top alleged events scheduled in the West to mark the invasion of Ukraine.
"I also voted straight Democratic…"
I didn't vote 'straight Democratic'; didn't have to. In fact I'm still uncomfortable with the idea that I'm voting against all Republicans all the time, but, until the GOP repudiates Trump that's gonna to be my default position. Doesn't feel right after so many years of split-ticket voting. But, that's where I'm at anyway. I can live with the minor discomfort easier than I can vote for Republicans.
In any case, we have 'minority' parties on the ballot here--easier to get on ballot here than in some other states I guess, so we almost always have Independents, Libertarians, Conservatives, and usually an odd half handful of other minor parties on the regularly scheduled election ballots.
Republicans win anyway; this is serious Trumpkan/Republican country. But I'm still not votin' for 'em.
________________________________
"…Russia has something to top alleged events scheduled in
the West…"
"Alleged events scheduled in the West"?
Who knows? The Western events are all in Putin's imagination. Useful lie to stir up his home audience.
I keep reading about an impending Russian 'second push', an intensified attack against Ukraine with ever higher numbers of infantry troops. And then I read about the current uptick in Russian pressure against the Donbas region, especially Donetsk, supposedly a preview of the 'second push'. And I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't the same thing instead.
I think it very well may be that the currently amped up pressure from Russia (supposedly a preface to the 'second push') is all the 'push' that Russia's currently able to mount. They may already be in their 'second push' and it just don't like much on account they don't have the logistical support to amp it up any higher. This may be all we see outta them until the spring thaw sets in and the Ukrainian mud makes any further efforts even harder.
Just a though.
(Doesn't mean Putin won't be forced to go with a second 'mobilization', pushed to draft some more reluctant soldiers.)
Word is that Putin has ordered his military to capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March. They have moved up the timetable for their offensive because of the impending delivery of Western tanks.
There seems to have been a fire at the factory in Belgorod which is making the bridge replacement sections for the Kerch bridge railroad section that was bombed. Perhaps there is more then one way to destroy a bridge.
"Word is that Putin has ordered his military to capture the
Donetsk and Luhansk regions by March."
I've also seen reports to that effect. Assuming that to be true…. It means the Russians got new generals but they still got the same ol' Putin, still trying to general the war from his perch in the Kremlin (as the "Supreme Commander-in-Chief", first one to hold that title since Leonid Brezhnev ruined the Soviet Army in Afghanistan). Didn't work out well for Brezhnev. Didn't work out well for Putin the first time he tried it. No particular reason to think it'll work any better this time.
But, it might explain Zelenskyy's most recent vow (as of late Friday) to hold on to 'fortress' Bakhmut at all costs.
NATO leaders have been afraid to provoke Putin into 'escalation' of the war. But, from Zelenskyy's Ukrainian point of view, the war is almost fully escalated already, so he's not been at all shy of taunting or even mocking Putin. So, he may have been trying to get Putin to again waste his assets on the wreck that is Bakhmut rather than having those explosives rain down on not yet destroyed Ukrainian population centers. (Especially considering that it looks like the Ukrainians may have seriously depleted the Wagner Group up at Soledar.)
________________________________
"There seems to have been a fire at the factory in Belgorod…"
Lotta suspicious fires breakin' out in Russia these days.
So it looks like they finally shot down the suspected Chinese spy balloon, waiting until it was over water so the debris wouldn't fall on someone's head. The GOP is out in force saying it should have been shot down earlier. My guess is that we took measures to jam any possible signals from the balloon as it drifted over the continental US.
Perhaps we should thank the Chinese for giving us some intelligence on their capabilities and their points of interest in the US.
... the Ukrainians may have seriously depleted the Wagner Group up at Soledar.
I suspect that it is Ukraine's goal to seriously deplete Russia. That is the real reason they hang out so long in some of the "hot" spots like Mariupol and Bakhmut.
"The GOP is out in force saying it should have been shot
down earlier."
I get the impression that the GOP's variable carping about the Chinese balloon hasn't won them any points with America's few remaining true swing voters. Rather, it's cost them some standing there, little bit anyway. I got no statistics on that, but that's the impression I get.
________________________________
"I suspect that it is Ukraine's goal to seriously deplete Russia."
Interim goal perhaps.
Back to the point though…. If this is Russia's effort to comply with Putin's command for a winter charge against Ukraine, for action before the tanks get there (and the mud), then it's a damn poor showing of a military offensive. If this is their best effort, they're gonna be in shit-shape once they burn through these soldiers.
Just one more thought on that balloon. Why a balloon? Are the Chinese having problems with their spy satellites?
...it's a damn poor showing of a military offensive.
Maybe they simply do not have enough men and equipment. It is being spent in Bakhmut.
It sounds like we and other Ukrainian allies are urging them to conserve more of their men and equipment for an offensive of their own. Or at least that is what is being said by the press. Don't know if that is actually true. I would think the Ukrainians have their plans made.
Sounds like a very serious earthquake in Turkey and Syria. Turkey is requesting aid from NATO allies. I wonder if they would accept aid from Sweden?
"Britain’s Ministry of Defence said Tuesday in its daily
intelligence update. ‛It is highly likely that Russia has been
attempting to re-start major offensive operations in Ukraine
since early January 2023,’…with the aim of capturing the
remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast.
WaPo
They added the further conclusion that:
[Russia]"almost certainly now lacks the munitions and
manoeuvre units required for successful offensives."
[Russia]"almost certainly now lacks the munitions and
manoeuvre units required for successful offensives."
If the Ukrainian military is dug in deeply in Bakhmut and they can get enough resupply it might be simpler to let the Russians come to them and eliminate their men and equipment at that time. It might make it easier when they do a counteroffensive in the Spring. If that is what they are planning. A weak Russia is better than a strong one.
Balloons are cheaper than a satellite launch.
But far more visible. Not a good look right before a diplomatic meeting between the US and China.
I listened to Joe Biden give the State of the Union address. Over all I was rather impressed. No, he wasn't perfect, but he was actually pretty good. I loved the moment when he poked the Republicans about wanting to cut Social Security and Medicare. When they responded with angry denials, especially Marjorie Taylor Greene calling him a liar, he turned the tables and got them to stand in agreement that they would not support cuts.
No, not perfect, but an impressive politician and leader. Far more clever than people give him credit for.
"Over all I was rather impressed."
It was certainly better than last year's 'State of the Union'. Much better than I was expecting; so, yeah, I'd guess 'impressed' is probably not a bad descriptive for me either, 'surprised' at the very least.
And he handled the hecklers fer shur. The fact that he had both prepared himself (obviously) and even drafted this year's speech to account for Republican resistance is probably what made it so much better than last year's speech. Biden's an old hand at gaining ground in the face of partisan politics after all, a legacy from his years in the Senate I'd reckon.
Sarah Sanders was considerably less impressive. But that's pretty much standard for the 'rebuttal' speech (either party), and she didn't embarrass herself, which some folks have in that role. Still, she came across pitifully pale in comparison. Sloganeering in service of the Trumpkan/Republican culture wars (which pretty much everybody's getting tired of except the Trumpkan/Republicans), not much else there.
"Far more clever than people give him credit for."
Well, if you'll think back a few years you might remember that I have fairly long history of saying that very same thing. (Or, maybe you never noticed. Bridget would remember though. Biden headed the Foreign Relations Committee in the Senate during the Second Gulf War. And we disagreed on that point more than once. She had an unfortunate habit of quoting what FoxNews claimed Biden had said and not paying any attention at all to what Biden had actually said.)
But, he's still even older than Trump.
Speaking of whom…. Apparently Trump himself was not impressed
“The choice is between normal or crazy.” Sarah Sanders.
When she opened with that line for a second I wondered who she was talking about, because I associate the crazies with the Republicans. Then as she continued I realize she was appealing to those who have blown way out of proportion the "woke" idea.
Apparently Trump himself was not impressed
Of course not, the speech was given by someone other than him.
"… because I associate the crazies with the Republicans."
So does she.
She was trying to extend a fairly standard Trumpkin maneuver, reappropriating a phrase that's stung the right-wingers and accusing their accusers of the same thing, i.e. 'crazie'.
There's a classic example I recall from the Clinton/Trump debates, during which Hillary implied that Trump was a 'puppet' spouting Putin's propaganda for him. Trump melted down on the spot, and for a few seconds could think of nothing else except to reflexively invoke that reappropriation trick. Babbling, "Not a puppet! Not a puppet! You're the puppet! [then louder talking over Hillary's response] YOU'RE THE PUPPET!" Which made absolutely zero sense in context. Hillary Clinton as a puppet for Putin? I mean, "C'mon Man!" as Biden would say.
CBS' Evening News last night put the death toll in the Turkish/Syrian earthquake in excess of 12,000.
This morning the Wall Street Journal is reporting it at upwards from 17,500.
Probably gonna go noticeably higher before it's a full count.
Lotta people died there.
In an apparent attempt to appease Putin, Elon Musk's SpaceX company has taken steps to block Ukraine's use of his Starlink system for control of Ukraine's drones. Reuters
It's a private corporation, so I can see that Musk has the right to pick whichever side he wants to support and how far he wants that support to extend, but we should take note of the fact that Musk's first instincts seem to be sympathetic to Putin as well as to Donald Trump. Both fascists.
Not an accident I don't think.
"Wagner Troops Filmed Beating Their Commander With Shovels"
I believe it. The convicts they recruited have found out exactly how Wagner was going to use them. As you noted this information has got back to Russia.
Wagner has now said it will discontinue recruiting from prisons.
From that article:
The two Wagner prisoners interviewed this week by CNN spoke of huge losses as they were sent to storm Ukrainian positions, with fighters refusing to go forward instantly executed by commanders, they said.
Word of that gets back and it could put a damper on recruitment. But as the article mentions there are all sorts of reasons that could have led Prigozhin to make that decision.
"… because I associate the crazies with the Republicans."
So does she.
Posing as a traditional Republican will not absolve her of her past Trumpian loyalty. She was, and probably still, is part of the problem.
The Russians seem to be ramping up their activity day by day.
There are some who believe that this is the Russian offensive, as I believe you had mentioned as a possibility.
Guess we'll havta wait and see, but first returns don't seem to be favorable for this incremental strategy either
Many Russians don't want to be there. It shows. Many Ukrainians, if not most, will never give up as long as there is a Russian soldier on their land.
However, they should be able to break up Russian infantry, even if dug in, and that's probably how they'll be used.
Ukraine has been pretty effective at determining the best way to use equipment.
In an apparent attempt to appease Putin, Elon Musk's SpaceX company has taken steps to block Ukraine's use of his Starlink system for control of Ukraine's drones.
Their excuse is that they never thought that Starlink would be used for military purposes. They thought it would be used for civilian purposes. Yet they were quite all right with asking the Pentagon to pay for it. Interesting. Now that they will not be paid for the service they will continue to limit it. You may be right about Musk's affinity for Putin but he also has an affinity for money.
Lotta people died there.
Yes, that earthquake happened at the worst possible time, at night, when everyone was home sleeping. Syria has even come out and asked the EU for help. The count is up to 20,000 now.
Horrible. No one can really prepare totally, but that region is even less prepared than some.
Putin is going to give a public speech to the Russian "Federal Assembly" (a joint assembly of the Russian 'Duma' and the Russian 'Federation Council') on the 21ˢᵗ, three days before the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
This will have to serve as Putin's 'flourish' celebrating the invasion. He won't want to have a battlefield embarrassment to try to work around or ignore during this event, so there's not going to be any grand military initiative against Ukraine prior to Putin's address to the Russian Federal Assembly.
...there's not going to be any grand military initiative against Ukraine prior to Putin's address to the Russian Federal Assembly.
But there does appear to be prep work going on, on the part of Russia. They are making some real efforts to shape the battlefield in their favor. But I am not quite sure how well that is going for them. They have been taking some heavy losses. You still need people to hold ground.
"They are making some real efforts to shape the battlefield in
their favor."
I suspect they're already well past that 'shape the battlefield' stuff. I think those 'heavy losses' are Putin's intended shape for the battlefield.
Grind out a yard at a time, covered in dead Russian bodies, soaked with Russian blood. He will count the ground gained as his prize, and will not bother to count the dead. That's fairly traditional Russian warfare. He doesn't care all that much about how many soldiers he loses; he'll call up more as he needs more.
He tried to mimic the so-called 'shock and awe' rush we used against Saddam Hussein, and his army got the collective ass kicked. So, he's already gone back to the traditional Russian battle style--dead Russians all over the place, and keep pouring more live bodies into the funnel, to keep coming over the top of the fallen bodies that they don't bother to pick up.
I don't think he's 'prepping' the battlefield. I think this is his current choice of battlefield.
"Rivalry between Russia’s military and the Wagner private
mercenary group is rising, according to a daily intelligence
update from Britain’s Defense Ministry. There is “increasingly
direct rivalry between the Russian Ministry of Defence and
Wagner,” it said. It added that data had showed a “drop-off”
in the number of recruits to Wagner from Russian prisons and
warned the “Russian leadership faces the difficult choice of
either continuing to deplete its forces, scale back objectives,
or conduct a further form of mobilisation,” if it is to continue
to amass troops."
WaPo
I've already made public my bet that Putin will go for an additional 'mobilization'.
I think this is his current choice of battlefield.
He's doubling down on stupid.
I've already made public my bet that Putin will go for an additional 'mobilization'.
Yes, that would line up with my thought.
The Ukrainians have come out and said that the US has been supplying them with positioning information for their attacks on Russian targets in the occupied territories. I don't think this should come as a surprise. My guess would be that we have been helping in other ways too.
It appears that we have shot down a third floating object. This one over Canada. This was similar to the one shot down over Alaska, which was smaller than the Chinese spy balloon and floating at a lower level, 40,000 feet. No one has come forward to claim either of these items, so the mystery deepens as to what they were doing there.
"I don't think this should come as a surprise."
Sometimes the absurdity of the American press amazes me. This is one of those times. This is not news. The guided munitions we've been giving the Ukrainians for a year now are built to take their 'guidance' from the U.S. military's GPS system. That's how the ammo works; it finds its locations (shell position and target position) from the U.S. military's global positioning satellite network. (Onboard computer chip does the actual physical steering between the two points.)
Who the Hell did the media people think was providing those coördinates in an American ammo-friendly format? The Russians, maybe the Chinese?
This is not news. Certainly not news to the Russians or the Chinese.
"My guess would be that we have been helping in other ways
too."
You mean like maybe we're sending them weapons and ammunition and even equipment and supplies to repair their electrical grid? Also not news.
You mean like maybe we're sending them weapons and ammunition and even equipment and supplies to repair their electrical grid? Also not news.
Well, no, that wasn't what I meant, but we'll go with that.
Sounds like we shot down another UFO over Lake Huron. Sheesh! Someone's got a lot of those things flying around up there.
I kinda suspect the Russians of maybe piggybacking some of their own secret stuff onto the public news cycle started by the Chinese balloons...
The same thought crossed my mind.
It looks like the war may come down to who runs out of ammunition first. Russia has been taking heavy losses near Vuhledar. Russian bloggers are heaping heavy criticism on the Russian commanders, calling it a turkey shoot and only morons would attack straight on after it failed before. Other people are thinking it has just as much to do with the ill prepared and ill trained soldiers Russia is fielding.
The moron here is Putin.
I think the Ukrainians have been preparing to withdraw for some time now.
There was the recent killing of an American medic in what appeared to he a precision missile strike by Russia. So perhaps not the safest place for non combatants if they are going to be deliberately targeted.
Oops, seems like the Russians lost a Brigade commander along with their headquarters near Vuhledar.
As I read it, the Russians lost most of that brigade along with him.
They seem to have many things going missing lately. They are now missing a thermobaric launcher, and accompanying ammunition, as well.
Zelenskyy was saying otherwise, emphatically, publicly, as recently as Friday. Regarding Bakhmut withdrawal.
Perhaps preparation isn't actually doing. I have heard lately that the Ukrainians have pushed back in a couple of areas around Bakhmut.
The developing conventional wisdom appears to be that the Ukrainian battlefield is turning into a 'war of attrition'. (NATO's Secretary General has even declared it to be so.) I'm not sure I necessarily agree with this, but, assuming it to be true, for the sake of argument:
War by attrition usually devolves into a battle of logistics, who can get their troops and supplies into the battlefield in the right places at the right times, and in sufficient quantity.
The Russians start out with an advantage in 'quantity', both of soldiers and of matériel. However, the poor quality of the Russian soldier largely neutralizes the strictly numerical soldier advantage. I don't know how to figure who's got the overall advantage in soldiers, or even if there is one.
The matériel advantage is rather more clear. The Russians consistently fail to get their matériel to the battlefield where and when required. And the Ukrainians have an additional advantage in 'depth' of matériel, that is, they have what the Russians call "the collective West" behind them, creating new supplies. Advantage Ukraine.
There is some word that perhaps the Russian Defense Ministry has now gotten the upper hand over Wagner. Prigozhin has been loudly complaining of lack of supplies, and not just in convict cannon fodder.
So who gets fed when supplies are limited? Sounds to me like it might be the Russian military over Wagner.
The Ukrainians were busy today, hitting targets in the Kherson region close to Crimea and also in the Zaporizhia region. They hit a base that was being used to field Iranian drones and also took out a Russian convoy which was possibly headed to reinforce Vulhedar. Another ammunition depot went up in smoke.
Just another comment on that balloon saga. Still as clear as mud. Now the Biden administration is floating(so to speak) the idea that the Chinese spy balloon was over the continental US accidentally. So who were they really supposed to be spying on? Russia?
And the smaller balloons were apparently not part of any Chinese spying operation. Now I ask you, what private company would keep quiet about having its balloons shot out of the sky? At the very least they would be screaming for compensation.
Perhaps aliens? Now this is far more interesting than a run of the mill spying operation.
Rumor's been goin' 'round that Prigozhin was due for a trimming down on account of he'd been grabbing after a bit too much publicly for Putin's comfort.
I suspect that Putin was right to be concerned.
Steps are being taken to remedy the situation.
lol! Kind of reminds me of this. I think Marcus would appreciate it.
One that hadn't bothered to get their flight permitted or even file a flight plan...
Some balloon hobbyists have come forward to say one of their balloons is missing. Hmmm...sounds rather convenient. I still prefer the aliens theory.
...so now we got more Russian 'siloviki ' falling out of tall buildings.
Only one guy should be taking that dive. And he's in the Kremlin.
"Some balloon hobbyists have come forward to say one of
their balloons is missing."
And they claimed their loss occurred on the date of the downing of the Canadian balloon, thereby avoiding the FAA's jurisdiction.
Canada must have something similar to our FAA.
"Canada must have something similar to our FAA."
Yes, of course they do. But, the gun club's in Illinois not Canada. Fairly easy to just not go back to Canada for awhile. Negotiate for probation or whatever, hopefully for a mere slap on the wrist, maybe a minor fine, or maybe get away with just an apology, negotiated from a position which is noticeably 'not-in-jail'; improves their initial negotiating position tremendously.
Plus, Trudeau ain't getting ragged on by MAGA Republicans to create a headline showing he's tough 'nuff to run in 2024.
Gun club in Illinois? Ahh, you have more info than I do.
Sooo wonder when Putin is going to visit Crimea? I mean you even have Joe Biden, who is rather old, showing up in Kyiv. One would think Putin could at least visit Crimea and cheer his cannon fodder on.
"Gun club in Illinois?"
Not a 'gun club', not that I know of anyway. (I was working on something else and got my adjectives swapped around there.) But they were said to be out of Illinois.
________________________________
"Sooo wonder when Putin is going to visit Crimea?"
Don't think he's going to Crimea any time soon. In addition to those long empty spaces at the table during his meetings with his generals, he's now traveling around Russia on an armored train car ('fraid of being shot out of the sky by persons unknown). He even had special secret train stations build just for him to use. Guy's gotten more than a little paranoid these last few years. That's Kim Jong-un type behavior.
Don't think he's going to Crimea any time soon.
That brings to mind that phrase again...just because you're paranoid doesn't mean someone isn't out to get you.
"… doesn't mean someone isn't out to get you."
Speaking of which… Putin seems to have effectively suppressed any possibility of a citizen uprising against his government. By and large the wide majority of the Russian population seems to be strongly in favor of destroying Ukraine and recreating Russia as the center of a new Eurasian Empire. (Apparently oblivious to the fact that neither NATO nor the Chinese are going to allow that to happen.)
However, there may be a real domestic threat to Putin developing, not from liberal reformers whom Putin has already suppressed, but rather from the fascist reactionaries who've been Putin's core support until lately when he started to look like a potential loser.
Yevgeny Prigozhin is already looking like a possible challenger (and is now getting some serious pushback from Russian government agencies, including a reluctance to give him ammo). But, there's more trouble developing out on that wing; there's competition developing for the role of challenger to Putin:
"Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov has threatened to set up
his own private army in the style of the Wagner Group of
mercenaries.
"The 46-year-old, who has led Chechnya since 2007, is
thought to be preparing for a potential civil war in Russia
amid the possibility that Vladimir Putin will be deposed over
the faltering invasion of Ukraine."
DailyMail
However, there may be a real domestic threat to Putin developing, not from liberal reformers whom Putin has already suppressed, but rather from the fascist reactionaries...
Yes, they would also seem to be the groups that would be the most likely to use violence as a way of achieving their goals.
If anyone in Russia is concerned about the breakup of the country, the threat is not external, but internal.
Ukraine may have received some longer range missiles already. They seem to have been able to strike just outside of Mariupol where the Russians were gathering reinforcements for Vulhedar. Some of whom won't arrive.
The Ukrainians have announced eight sorties against Russian positions in southern Ukraine conducted by the Ukrainian Air Force (not usually exposed to potential losses in such a manner). These are probably your suspected "longer range missiles", actually air strikes instead. NYT
Hmmm...could be. Although the guy who was thinking longer range rockets seems to be in the know about battlefield logistics. Not ATACMS, the other ones, forget the acronym. Just longer range than what was sent originally. He was actually thinking sabotage at first. But changes his mind on that.
So Medvedev is whining that Russia will break apart if they lose the war. Maybe they should have thought of that before they invaded Ukraine? And, what, are we supposed to feel sorry for them? They are destroying a country due to their massive egos. Please! No sympathy from me.
I have to say that Biden's trip to Ukraine via train was rather appropriate. He spent all of those days riding the rails for his boys and the country. He wasn't named Amtrak Joe for nothing.
It's called an 'SDB' (Small Diameter Bomb). Supposedly they're in the pipeline; they have been promised. It's a fair guess that Ukraine will announce their first presence on the battlefield with a loud noise on a far target--let the Russians figure it out from there. In fact, a lot of people are expecting that to be the manner of their debut. So, his suspicions are not unreasonable. But, I don't think this is it. Not yet.
There's two versions, there's the original GBU-39 a/k/a an 'SDB', which is launched from a flying platform (fighter jet usually, although a chopper can be so rigged). And then there's the GLSDB (Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb), which adds a rocket booster for increased distance. The rocket booster also brings the ability to launch from a HIMARS rocket launcher or an M-270 rocket launcher.
"…Medvedev is whining…"
I don't see Russia breaking up. Although it's quite possible some of the constituent republics and regions gathered unwillingly into the post-Soviet 'Russian Federation' might once again escape Moscow's clutches if there's a post-Putin power struggle or civil war.
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Havta call it a long shot desperation move, stupid on steroids, if it happens, which I doubt, but there's been some hints that Russia might try a surprise attack on southwestern Ukraine from within the 'breakaway' Moldovan region known as 'Transnistria'.
The NewYorkTimes is reporting that a dozen strikes against Russian positions in and around Mariupol have occurred again today. They're so-far avoiding giving any credit for the strikes to any particular weapons system (don't seem to be certain themselves about how the Ukrainians have pulled it off). Although they repeat the hint made yesterday that yesterday's long range strikes were made by the Ukrainian Air Force.
... there's been some hints that Russia might try a surprise attack on southwestern Ukraine from within the 'breakaway' Moldovan region known as 'Transnistria'.
I think that destabilizing Moldova via Transnistria has always been Russia's goal. That it would impact Ukraine adversely by creating another front is a danger. But I think that Ukraine is aware and will be watching. Just as they are watching the border with Belarus.
GLSDB
That's what he was thinking it might be.
What do you think the chances are that China will throw more support to Russia in the war with Ukraine by supplying weapons?
"…by supplying weapons?"
…or component parts, like computer chips for guidance systems, and etc.
I think they'll do it if they think they can conceal it.
They're not so much worried 'bout what the United States thinks, but they don't want to poison their markets in Europe as well as North America, both at the same time. (Plus lookin' bad with maybe as much as half of the 'Third World', the other half already rooting for a Russian success in Ukraine). I don't know what's the odds they'll manage to come up with a supply plan they think they can keep concealed (or plausibly denied), but they'll sure as Hell be workin' on it.
The longer the war goes on, the more likely they can convince themselves they're clever enough to keep their supply lines concealed.
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Related: The one year anniversary came and went. And Russia simply wasn't able to launch the widely anticipated anniversary offensive. (Apparently, what they've already launched is all they currently got to give it; this is full throttle for them--and the Chinese won't want to be seen coming in late, on the losers' side. Not gettin' caught at it--that'll be the key for them.)
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Also related: The 'peace proposal' the Chinese had been teasing for weeks now turned out to be a complete bust. They had no proposal to offer when their self-declared deadline came and went. (Whatever they were going to propose apparently relied on a renewed Russian offensive for any credibility it might have claimed. But as the Russian offensive has petered out, so too has the Chinese 'peace proposal'.)
It's amazing how people can be so blinded by the need for power that they can't see the forest for the trees.
Helping a power whose actions are so destabilizing will never prove fruitful, especially as you are cutting off the hand that feeds you. China as it is now, economically speaking, would not exist except for the West. Both the United States and Western Europe. If the Chinese forget that, they are fools.
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