We
have just had a major storm move through our area, which has also
impacted much of the United States. Travel has been a challenge with
snow compacted roads and freezing temperatures. I am grateful that I
have a warm home to come to. Yet as I sit here I think of those who
are not so fortunate. I
think of the people in Ukraine who are left in darkness and cold
because of relentless shelling by Russian forces. I
think of the people in Iran who are left in the darkness and cold by a totalitarian regime which would sooner kill those in opposition
then change.
Many
Christmases have gone by with our world at war. Many have been far
away from their loved ones and their homes. The
story of the Christmas Bells is
one man’s plea for the meaning of Christmas.
My wish for those in Ukraine and those in Iran is the promise of that Christmas peace.
100 comments:
It appears the Ukrainians have launched another air attack at a Russian air base, hundreds of miles deep into Russia. (Seems to have been a drone attack and Like the earlier assaults, this was more a 'token' than a serious attempt at a debilitating strike.)
It sounds like 3 Russian service members were killed according to Russian media.
There is no confirmation that the drone was actually shot down.
Word is that 2 rockets managed to get threw the Russian defenses at that airbase. As I noted earlier 3 soldiers were killed and others were wounded. There was also a large fire. The Russians appear to be evacuating aircraft from that base.
This may have been a preventative strike by Ukraine as they believe Russia is planning another large missile strike in Ukraine before year end. That base was strategic to this plan.
Word is also going around that it is the Russians who may be running out of ammo near Bakhmut. The Wagner Group has been said to be taking rather large losses and there has been a lessoning of Russian advances in the area. There seem to be a number of Ukrainian snipers causing them some difficulty.
"…3 Russian service members were killed…"
Didn't sound much like a successful shoot down did it?
Although, I wasn't previously aware of any Ukrainian drones that could deliver a brace of missiles and had the range to make it to Engels Air Base.
And, the Wagner Group was reliably reported to be already getting direct deliveries of ammo directly purchased from North Korea, circumventing the Russian government military command entirely. (Putin needs to watch his ass.) Perhaps those deliveries are insufficient or undependable?
In any case, I'm afraid I can't yet confirm any of the rumors you're entertaining here. But, I'll sure as Hell be keepin' my eyes open for further developments consistent with those story-lines.
Lavrov's ultimatum: Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Kyiv must fulfil Moscow's proposals regarding four "new territories" occupied by Russia, or the Russian military "will take action," Russian state media reported. Russia has claimed control of Ukraine's Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions after holding sham referendums in September. The Ukrainian government has repeatedly said it will not accept any deal that would jeopardise its territorial integrity.
I wonder what exact "action" Russia's military will take? Maybe invade Ukraine? No, wait, they did that. Kill innocent civilians, maybe with torture thrown in? No, wait, they did that too. Destroy civilian infrastructure? No, wait, they are doing that already.
I wasn't previously aware of any Ukrainian drones that could deliver a brace of missiles and had the range to make it to Engels Air Base.
I don't think the Russians were either. Good OPSEC on the part of Ukraine.
Perhaps those deliveries are insufficient or undependable?
I think some have gone up in smoke, so to speak, before they reached their intended targets.
The Ukrainians have reported that the Russians have been steadily supplying the Kreminna area with fresh forces. There all sorts of ways to run out of ammo. Ukraine is going through a lot as well.
"I wonder what exact 'action' Russia's military will take?"
I had much the same reaction.
That statement probably was made primarily for publication to Putin's domestic audience. American analysts have mostly concluded that the Russians are already operating to the limits of their war-making capabilities. The delays between artillery/rocket/missile/drone barrages against Ukrainian civil infrastructure are thought to be the result of the Russians' inability to mount new salvos any quicker. (Notably, the salvos are getting smaller as time goes along, and the interval between salvos is getting larger.) The Ukrainians have come to the same conclusions for the same reasons.
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Miscellaneous:
Russian oligarchs critical of Putin (and not just over The War) continue to die at fairly extraordinary rates from falls from high windows, the tops of tall buildings, and down isolated back stairwells. NYT
Russian oligarchs critical of Putin (and not just over The War) continue to die at fairly extraordinary rates from falls from high windows, the tops of tall buildings, and down isolated back stairwells. NYT
Yes, I noticed that the other day. Will the coming collapse of Russia be easier to watch if the only people left are Putinites?
The Russian economy is fast losing its main sources of income as shippers are refusing to carry Russian oil and other commodities like steel are refused by importing countries.
Russian civilians are fleeing Kreminna. Do they know something?
"Do they know something?"
Could be they know to take it as a sign of things to come when the Russian officers start pulling out.
"…in response to military pressure, part of the
Russian command in Kreminna ha[s] withdrawn to the
town of Rubizhne, a few miles to the southeast…"
NYT
We were just on the subject of Russia's strikes against Ukrainian civil infrastructure. As if on cue the Russians struck again, one of the largest salvos against Ukraine's power grid of the war, so far. It's a combined attack this time, missiles and drones, over 120 separate strikes it's being said.
The Ukrainians are saying they shot down 54 out of 69 Russian missiles. No word on drones.
The Ukrainian head of intelligence is also saying the war is at a stalemate until more advanced weapons arrive from the West.
More details are coming out about the attack on the Russian Engels Airbase. Apparently not only did Russia not shoot down any of the drones they actually shot down one of their own fighter jets by mistake.
Word is that Russia is moving some of its s300 air defense systems away from the frontlines with Ukraine further back into Russia itself.
"…54 out of 69…"
Roughly three outta four; leaves a lot of damage bein' done.
I'm hoping to discover that the intelligence chief was wrong about the Ukrainians being stymied for now.
________________________________
"Russia is moving some of its s300 air defense systems away
from the frontlines with Ukraine further back into Russia
itself."
No doubt to better protect those big bombers that they're also moving back aways. The Russians are really spooked about putting their Air Force at any substantial risk of contact with the Ukrainians, have been so spooked since the early days of the war when they bravely flew in, expecting to take control of Ukrainian air space and it simply did not happen that way. The Ukrainian pilots immediately spooked 'em, right off the bat and clear to their bones. They ain't been willing to risk contact since.
(I've been wondering if it was perhaps a Russian S-300 that crash landed in Belarus yesterday; don't guess it really matters.)
________________________________
Putin finally got to have a meeting with Chinese President Xi, although it was forced to be virtual meeting.
I've been wondering if it was perhaps a Russian S-300 that crash landed in Belarus yesterday; don't guess it really matters.)
Quite possible. There is word that the Russian defense guys are getting a little nervous after the drone attacks in Russia. It sounds like Russian defense systems shot down 4 of their own missiles over Crimea because they thought they were incoming fire.
I think it is the weather that has been an issue for troop movements on both sides. Too warm, everything is mud.
"I think it is the weather that has been an issue for troop
movements on both sides."
The analyses I've been reading say that the Russians don't have the capacity to mount offensive operations even if the mud freezes for them. They don't have the necessary supply chains and their troops now in the field were sent to the field virtually untrained. They can barely be expected to man defensive positions. (The Russians do have more men in the field today than when they started this off back in February/March, this thanks to Putin's 'partial mobilization'. But, quality counts as well as quantity and the Russians have burned through most of their 'crack' units and the new conscripts are poor replacements.)
The Ukrainians are still significantly outnumbered, and that Ukrainian 'intelligence chief' was saying that the Ukrainians are also short of necessary weapons, but I'm not sure that last part's true.
I've read that Russia has lost so many experienced soldiers that it is turning to Belarus for training.
Another 20 missiles sent into Ukraine by Russia today. There is some evidence that there were actually more then 20 fired. The missiles that did not make it to Ukraine appear to have been shot down by Russia.
They are getting a little paranoid. Of course, Ukraine has been encouraging that feeling. They were predicting that Moscow would spend the New Year in the dark.
"Russia…is turning to Belarus for training."
I'd seen that info. Scrapin' the bottom of the barrel there; Belarus ain't known for keepin' up a competent military (good 'nuff for suppressing unarmed civilians, maybe, but not much else). But, at least they speak Russian--North Korean trainers would be 'problematic' there, to say the least.
"The missiles that did not make it to Ukraine appear to
have been shot down by Russia."
Possibly true: Putin hasn't fostered an integrated, unified military command (the better to guard against the military stepping up to depose his ass). This leads to the left hand not knowing what the right hand is doing.
There have been multiple reports of 'competition' between military units and military brigades (and even between battalions within the same brigade) for prestige and ammunition, even for uniforms and groceries for their troops (some extreme cases leading to intentional fratricidal exchanges of gun fire, Russian tanks firing on Russian soldiers, etc.), and that's before ya throw the Wagner Group into the mix.
But, I doubt they're shooting down 'friendly' missiles in the service of that competition; rather, they don't know they're looking at 'friendly' fire; they're not gettin' the word on that. They look up and see unexpected missiles in the air. 'Paranoia strikes deep' as the poet said. So, they don't wait to examine the trajectories.
________________________________
Putin has issued an executive order declaring that Russians serving in or working in Ukraine do not have to declare their income in Ukraine, in effect, legalizing the looting of Ukraine and declaring it to be tax exempt income. NYT The boys at the Wagner Group will be appreciative as well.
Russia has been building defenses around Moscow, drawing down some air defenses in Ukraine. Last night Ukraine struck at a Russian base in Makiivka, destroying a large building housing Russian troops. There is word of a large number of casualties, 500 killed and the rest wounded. This was a base for newly mobilized soldiers.
There is also word that Ukraine sent drones into Russia, possibly Moscow and St. Petersburg. At least air raid sirens went off in Moscow. No reports of any injuries.
You know what they say, just because you are paranoid, doesn't mean people aren't out to get you.
"Last night Ukraine struck at a Russian base in Makiivka,
destroying a large building housing Russian troops…500
killed."
Sounds like a fair start on the winter campaign.
"… air raid sirens went off in Moscow."
And that's a good place for the 'fair start' to be aiming. Need to get more of that goin' on, and maybe even get in an actual hit on the Kremlin itself. Until the Ukrainians can strike back, against Russia proper, and not just against Russians in Ukraine, Putin will have no incentive to back off his own attacks.
It's easy to forget, but Putin is no longer trying to conquer Ukraine. He has no present intention of ever again trying to govern Ukraine (certainly not ever rebuild it). He was around when the Soviet Union failed to pacify Afghanistan. He doesn't intend to repeat that mistake in Ukraine.
He's now trying to destroy Ukraine, is what he's trying to do. People tend to forget that and to fall back into thinking he's trying to somehow 'win' the War on Ukraine. That's not what he's trying to do. Now he's trying to destroy the country instead. Nobody wins Ukraine; that's his current plan. He destroys it and leaves a wasteland behind him when he leaves--that's the plan. Then he can point to the wasteland and tell the world that this is the price to be paid for opposing Putin. (If we don't recognize what his goals are we won't be able to stop him from achieving his goals.)
Losing soldiers isn't going to bother him; he don't care how many Russians he loses; he's got more if he needs to spend more. Dead Russians are not a threat to him. On the other hand, live Russians might someday become a threat to him.
So, he does care that the ones still alive don't rise up against him. So far that doesn't seem to be a problem. But, strikes into Russia might change that, might give him reason to fear the threat Ukraine can potentially pose to him via newly pissed off Russians. Absent that threat, Putin has no incentive to stand down until after he renders Ukraine a permanent wasteland.
Losing soldiers isn't going to bother him; he don't care how many Russians he loses; he's got more if he needs to spend more. Dead Russians are not a threat to him. On the other hand, live Russians might someday become a threat to him.
The more dead Russians the more possibly pissed off live Russian relatives.
Yes, I think the more strikes within Russia the more the war will come home to average Russians. But I also think the shrinking Russian economy will also bring home the war.
And if Putin's goal is to totally destroy Ukraine then the Ukrainians have little to lose in continuing the fight. I suspect that "Give me Liberty or Give me Death" slogan from our Revolutionary War really does mean something to them.
No hard count on how many Russian soldiers were actually killed or injured in the strike on Makiivka. The Russians were stupid enough, or uncaring enough, to place an ammunition depot next to where they were housing troops. So that went up after the missile struck, leveling the building. There looks like there is nothing left.
The basement, they were storing ammunition in the basement of that building. What idiots. Some Russian bloggers are calling for a criminal investigation. I would too.
Meanwhile the Ukrainians have found other targets to strike, destroying more ammo depots and adjacent Russian soldiers.
"The Russians were stupid enough, or uncaring enough, to
place an ammunition depot next to where they were housing
troops."
I thought the Russians had learned to move the ammo dumps back away from the front, outta range of the Ukrainian artillery and rockets. Guess maybe that education don't apply to fresh conscript troops.
"Ukrainians have little to lose in continuing the fight."
You're looking at it backwards. At this point they have nothing to gain by surrendering. It will do them no good. Putin doesn't want the hassle of trying to govern a recalcitrant, insurrectionist province of Ukraine. He sure as Hell doesn't want to pay to rebuild it. He wants to leave it a wasteland. If they surrender first that'll make it quicker and easier for him to achieve that goal, but it won't change his goal of laying waste to Ukraine and then gettin' the Hell outta there before the guerrilla war gets fully ramped up, leaving the surviving Ukrainians to starve in the cold and dark.
Fight or die--those are their choices now.
"The more dead Russians the more possibly pissed off live
Russian relatives."
From what I've been reading the Russian relatives aren't getting pissed off at Putin. (example from the NYT) They seem to take it as a given that the Ukrainians have no legitimate right to resist being robbed and murdered.
Probably havta be a lot more dead Russians before that attitude gets any significant reëxamination, especially in suburban, exurban, and rural Russia. That whack they put on the Russian barracks is a good start, but it's just a start.
________________________________
"The basement, they were storing ammunition in the
basement"
They forget to warn the troops against smoking in the barracks maybe?
Off topic...
So what happens if the Republicans cannot generate that 218 vote for Speaker of the House for anyone?
Does the House just muddle through with no Speaker?
McCarthy: "I've earned this job". Meaning he's cowtowed to the far right and Trump for long enough in his opinion to warrant a reward.
You're looking at it backwards. At this point they have nothing to gain by surrendering.
You're right.
They seem to take it as a given that the Ukrainians have no legitimate right to resist being robbed and murdered.
I've seen both attitudes. I suppose it depends on where the recruits were from.
But in the end it will be the Russian people who will decide how this ends. So far, like lemmings, they are all running off a cliff.
Probably havta be a lot more dead Russians before that attitude gets any significant reëxamination, especially in suburban, exurban, and rural Russia.
Sad that they care so little for their own. But there it is.
"So what happens if the Republicans cannot generate that
218 vote for Speaker of the House for anyone?"
Nothing else happens until they get a majority vote for a Speaker. Until then the House Clerk is in charge of the House, and no other matters can come up for official action--they can't even swear in the new members. (Back in the pre-Civil War days was sometimes known to take months to wear down the resisters and pick a Speaker of the House. And, the 'majority' requirement is for a majority of those present and voting for a known person--votes as 'present' or simply leaving the floor and going back to ones office, lower the count necessary to make for a majority of those present and voting for a candidate for Speaker.)
"Meaning he's cowtowed to the far right and Trump for long
enough in his opinion to warrant a reward."
Yeah, now you you mention it; that does indeed appear to be his guiding criteria for claiming the job of Speaker.
There appears to be something of a row developing on the Russian side of the war, as the Russian military command tries to lay the blame on for the Makiivka attack on the dead soldiers themselves. (They claim the soldiers' use of unsecured personal cell phones was the primary 'cause' of the missile strike--as if the Ukrainians didn't already know that the vocational school building was now in use as a central barracks from the reports from Ukrainian civilian spotters on the ground in Makiivka.)
The Russian military command has also upped the admitted death count to eighty-eight dead conscripts and one Deputy Commander.
As I said earlier ↑↑, "That whack they put on the Russian barracks is a good start…".
________________________________
And… The Wagner Group is still trying, unsuccessfully, to lead their newly padded ranks of conscripts and convicts into the rubble pile that was once Bakhmut. But, as the Ukrainians are now fond of reporting, 'Bakhmut still holds.'
________________________________
And the U.S. House of Representatives begins its second day of voting for the position of 'Speaker of The House'. Kevin McCarthy is still the favored Republican candidate after three successive failed votes. ( Democratic Party Leader Hakeem Jeffries--successor to Nancy Pelosi--is, in fact, the currently leading overall candidate for the position of Speaker of the House, gathering a plurality of 212 votes for the position against the 202/203 votes McCarthy's been getting.)
Democratic Party Leader Hakeem Jeffries--successor to Nancy Pelosi--is, in fact, the currently leading overall candidate for the position of Speaker of the House, gathering a plurality of 212 votes for the position against the 202/203 votes McCarthy's been getting.
The final vote was 212 Jeffries, 201 McCarthy and 20 Donald (who voted for himself).
So pick an Independent and see what that person can do...
They claim the soldiers' use of unsecured personal cell phones was the primary 'cause' of the missile strike-...
That and the Russian blogger helped in the strikes after Makiivka. I don't know about Makiivka. All in all a bad week for Russian conscripts in Ukraine. Personally I would avoid the place like the plague if I were them. Georgia is nice this time of year.
One thing we're learning from Russia's War on Ukraine is the need to develop cost-effective defenses to robot swarms. (I'm thinking of the Iranian made air-drones here, but, given their successes, there'll be other robot weapons in development soon 'nuff.) We need defenses that are cheaper to fire than the drones' cost to build. Computer aimed medium-heavy machine guns for instance (or computer assisted aiming--something that can be fired at least semi-accurately at night, in the dark), or radar aimed lasers, or something along those lines.
We need the cost-per-shot to be lower than the cost of the drone.
________________________________
We're also learning that the Wagner Group isn't immune to Russian political pressures. Their high honcho, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has recently felt the need to publicly explain away Wagner's failure (so far) to break into the pile of rubble that was once Bakhmut. Seems the Russian people are starting to notice that Wagner's not gaining ground either. (He thought to use the rather implausible explanation that every abandoned house in Bakhmut was a stand-alone fortress. But the weakness of his explanation was not the remarkable point, rather it's instead remarkable that he felt the need to make a public excuse for Wagner's failure to date.)
________________________________
"That and the Russian blogger helped in the strikes after
Makiivka."
I was not sure I gathered in the meaning there. The Ukrainian's were getting the locations from reading Russian bloggers?
We need the cost-per-shot to be lower than the cost of the drone.
I was thinking the same thing. I was wondering about some kind of laser or maybe a giant net. Yeah, I know, kind of out there.
rather it's instead remarkable that he felt the need to make a public excuse for Wagner's failure to date.)
Everyone is getting a little twitchy. As they should be.
The Ukrainian's were getting the locations from reading Russian bloggers?
One was so kind as to confirm a geolocation by posting a picture on social media. So helpful.
Word is that the Ukrainians are inching closer to Kreminna. I wonder if that has anything to do with that unilateral ceasefire Putin has been floating? Maybe he thinks they too will pause?
Sooo back at the ranch, it appears that McCarthy has again lost his bid for Speaker of the House. The vote tally is exactly the same, except for Gaetz, who apparently voted for Trump, giving Donalds only 19 votes.
Personally I would like to see the moderate Republicans get so fed up that they vote for Jeffries, or change their vote to present, to lower the majority needed.
"… or maybe a giant net."
Maybe not as crazy as the first impression might seem. During the two World Wars the Brits anchored small/medium sized dirigibles with long steel cables to interfere with Germany's bombing dirigibles, the "V-1" flying rockets, and with low flying bombers. (Most German bombers flew too high for this trick, but the steel cable could cut the wing right off a dive bomber.)
I would also note that our fighter planes already have computer assisted fire control to keep the pilots from wasting ammo up there. (There's always that temptation to just hold the button down and sweep across the intended target, but they carry a limited supply of ammo. So, if the targeting computer don't spot something besides empty air in the target box, the gun don't shoot.) Similar computer assistance, even computer initiated aiming, should be reproducible on the ground.
________________________________
"McCarthy has again lost his bid for Speaker of the House."
I'm almost entirely untroubled by the House Republicans' shenanigans. I figure it keeps them out of more consequential mischiefs. They'll havta get around to raising the debt limit before the end of the year, but 'til something necessary like that comes up--I'm okay with them being frantic in public. Not a problem. And we got a lotta time before the end of the fiscal year. I think we can just enjoy the show for at least a few weeks--maybe even longer.
We're 2½ hours into Putin's supposed unilateral (and temporary) cease-fire in Ukraine, and far as I can tell from word on the internet, there's been no let up at all in the Russian artillery barrages against Ukraine.
I'm almost entirely untroubled by the House Republicans' shenanigans.
I tend to feel the same way. As long as there is a brake on their worst actions they can be simply amusing to watch.
... there's been no let up at all in the Russian artillery barrages against Ukraine.
Not surprised.
Kevin McCarthy finally got a majority of the votes for Speaker of the House (216 votes). Six (6) hard-line wingnuts 'present', which counted as not voting under House rules on the subject and thereby lowered the total McCarthy needed to 215 votes. And he got 216.
He (and we) are likely gonna discover in the coming days that he's not actually broken the power of his hard-line wingnut contingent.
________________________________
The Russian assault on Bahkmut continues unabated, in spite of the supposed 36 hour 'cease-fire' ordered by Putin, but never implemented. NYT
Apparently the Russians have moved into Soledar. This in an attempt to get to Bakhmut from a northerly direction.
However, they seem to be having problems with Ukrainian military popping up behind their lines now, attacking ammo depots and other such important items.
There are extensive underground tunnels in the area due to the Soledar Salt Mine. They are facilitating unseen movements by Ukraine.
There has been some speculation that it was a trap set by Ukraine. Don't know, though.
He (and we) are likely gonna discover in the coming days that he's not actually broken the power of his hard-line wingnut contingent.
Probably. I am of two minds about that. I will not like watching the mess they will create. But it will remind the American people of the crazies that are still lurking in the Republican Party.
"…the crazies that are still lurking in the Republican Party."
I'm not sure whether they'll be lurking or if they'll instead be driving the Republican agenda. (It all comes down to whether the 'not crazy' Republicans are still afraid to cross them. We'll havta wait and see how that one works out. They do seem to have put a proper fear into McCarthy, but he may have promised too much to the crazies and now may face a counter-rebellion from the regions nearer to sanity.)
________________________________
The Russian declared 'cease-fire' is over. Just as well; the Russians never did cease firing. They bitched about the Ukrainians still firing, but they continued firing as well, which they did not bitch 'bout.
They do seem to have put a proper fear into McCarthy, but he may have promised too much to the crazies and now may face a counter-rebellion from the regions nearer to sanity.
That has been my hope from the very beginning. Slim, but there nevertheless.
"Apparently the Russians have moved into Soledar."
In his nightly video report to his people, Zelenskyy said that Soledar, as well as Bakhmut, 'still holds'. (Although, it's gettin' bloody out there.)
(Although, it's gettin' bloody out there.)
Apparently what the Russians, particularly the Wagner Group, do is send the mobilized cannon fodder in waves into the Ukrainian lines, using them to pinpoint artillery, then they fire back.
The Russians have moved some forces from the attack on Bakhmut up to Soledar.
The US is saying that Russian artillery fire is down in some places by 75%. No explanation as to why, just a lot of speculation.
"No explanation as to why…"
I think we can safely assume it's »NOT« because the Russians have belatedly reëxamined their policy of terrorizing Ukrainian civilians.
I do recall that Russia had been trying to purchase artillery shells from North Korea. Could be that Kim demanded cash up front.
And the Russians were supposedly also looking for ammo from Iran, but I never read whether they were able to close a deal on that.
It is said that they have approximately 7,000 S-300 anti-aircraft missiles available in storage, ready to be converted to use against ground targets if they got the launchers to deliver 'em. But, those have relatively small warheads (fighter planes and bombers being not heavily armored as a general rule), and while they'll do for hitting soft civilian targets, they're of limited good against hardened targets, or even well dug in soldiers.
________________________________
There seems to be a fairly public disagreement about whether or not the Wagner Group has finally 'taken' the tiny town of Soledar. Looks like we'll have to wait a bit to see which side's telling the truth 'bout that. I'm inclined to think the Wagner Group's the one more likely to be lying there, but it's not something I'd bet the ranch on. (The British Defense Ministry has said publicly that they estimate the fight for Soledar is still being fought in downtown Soledar..)
General Sergei Surovikin, who just three months ago was appointed as Commanding General of all Russian forces in Ukraine (save for the Wagner Group's mercenary force) has been demoted to the position of Deputy (one of three deputies) to a new Commanding General of all Russian forces in Ukraine (save for the Wagner Group…etc.). The new Commanding General is named Valery Gerasimov, and his prior service was as Chief of General Staff. He has been mostly a political desk jockey general up until now (he served in the Kremlin rather than in the field) but, he's got a direct line to Putin.
Maybe he's got something to do with the 75% cut in artillery fire from the Russians. Maybe he's supposed to fix that.
It's been a couple of days now, and it looks like the battle for Soledar continues. (So say the spokesmen from Kyiv anyway; the Russians have quit talking about it.) I am reminded of the predicament German General Paulus found himself in during the battle for Stalingrad in WWII. The general was asking for permission to withdraw his troops from an encirclement, to 'break out' while he still could. But, Hitler would not allow him to do that, because Hitler had already announced the successful 'capture' of Stalingrad from the Russians.
In the end the Germans lost their entire 6áµ—Ê° Army there--and lost General Paulus as well.
There seems to be a fairly public disagreement about whether or not the Wagner Group has finally 'taken' the tiny town of Soledar.
There seems to be some disagreement between the Russians as to who actually is conducting their attack on Soledar. Wagner says its them and the Russian Defense Ministry is saying it is their forces.
So, the Russians seem to think they have Soledar under their control, or will. I don't think either the Defense Minister or Prigozhin would claim their involvement unless they felt a win coming on.
"I don't think either the Defense Minister or Prigozhin would
claim their involvement unless they felt a win coming on."
What're they gonna win?
Notes I've been reading of late suggest that Soledar is the new Bakhmut. The Russians (mostly Wagner, in this case) are pouring actual resources into the town of Soledar in the hopes of taking control of what's already become a pile of rubble.
But,…even if the Russians take Soledar…, the original plan was to take Bakhmut, and if they take Soledar they're still no closer to takin' Bakhmut than they were before. All this goin' on in Soledar, and they still gotta try again to take Bakhmut.
Russian long-range firepower is down by 75%, or so it's been written up. So: Putin's now gotta go back to using his ground troops without the overwhelming artillery advantage they once enjoyed.
And so: The Ukrainians now got the Russians burning through those now-exposed ground troops in repeated efforts to seize otherwise inconsequential ghost towns--specifically, the aforementioned towns of Bakhmut and Soledar. Designating shiny new generals to oversee the Russian efforts to seize control of those small Ukrainian ghost towns is likely not gonna fix Putin's problems here.
Doesn't really matter if the mercenaries and the regular army are competing for the limelight in the ghost town competitions. (Seems to matter to them though, but that's probably why they're losing the war.)
As of Friday morning…
"The Russian Defense Ministry said on Friday that its troops
had captured the eastern salt-mining town of Soledar…"
***
"…its troops had ‛completed’ their capture of the town
overnight.
But Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for Ukrainian troops
fighting in the east, denied that Soledar had been captured.
‛This is not true,’ Mr. Cherevaty said in remarks to Ukrainian
news outlets on Friday afternoon. ‛The fighting is ongoing.’
NYT
And, so far as I know, the Wagner Group still claims to have captured Soledar last Tuesday.
That's always a problematic construction for dating something. Let me try to clear that up…
…Wagner Group still claims to have captured Soledar this last Tuesday."
Looks like the Defense Ministry caved:
Two days after citing only regular Russian forces for the attack on the eastern Ukrainian town of Soledar, the Russian Defense Ministry on Friday credited private military company Wagner for spearheading the "direct assault."
In a statement on its official Telegram channel, the defense ministry said that “offensive operations” were carried out by a “heterogeneous grouping of Russian troops according to a single plan” and that Wagner led the “direct assault.”
CNN Website
"Looks like the Defense Ministry caved:"
Does look that way.
I wonder what was their purpose in the caving?
________________________________
As of Saturday morning it's still the Ukrainian government's position that their soldiers are still 'holding on' on Soledar. (WaPo) Although, there are hints seeping through the translations that suggest the troops still there are now surrounded (else they'd not still be there).
Updating that ↑↑: The Ukrainian soldiers posting to the net from inside Soledar made it explicit that they were surrounded.
Word is that the Ukrainian soldiers have been evacuated.
While the Ukrainians have pulled out of Soledar they still have a defensive line running along the railway.
There was an explosion of a gas pipeline in northern Lithuania, running into Latvia. This happened yesterday on Jan. 13th. No word as to cause. But the date gives rise to some speculation. But it was 40 years old, so breakdown may not be a surprise.
It looks like the weekend salvo of missiles came to a count of less than 40.
Clear trend developing; the barrages are getting further apart and smaller in missile count.
Analysts keep writing about an impending Russian offensive for the coming spring, but unless the Russians get more ammo I don't see how that can be considered realistic.
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The Ukrainians are planning on another offensive as well and there are rumors that they're thinking of 'conserving' the troops they've recently been committing to Bakhmut and Soledar for the offensive operations they're planning. (Speaking of Soledar, the Ukrainian government apparently has not yet admitted to having been driven out of the town.)
I too have started to wonder about a Russian offensive actually occurring. They have been busy wasting men and weaponry on targets that will not win them the war.
The Ukrainians are smart. There was a reason they fought for so long in Soledar and for their ultimate retreat of forces there. I suspect while everyone, including the Russians and Wagner, have been focused on the taking of Soledar and Bakhmut, and their internal squabbles, the Ukrainians have been making other plans.
"They have been busy wasting men and weaponry on
targets that will not win them the war."
I have speculated that the Ukrainians could allow the Russians to 'capture' a 'treasure map' with a big red "X" on it to mark the treasure, and thereby get the Russians to attack an empty field just below a high bluff populated by Ukrainian grenadiers.
I suspect that the Ukrainians have thought of something similar...
I have heard they have been sending waves of drones over Crimea, baiting Russian air defenses, to in effect "map" those air defenses. Ultimately they will return and attack for real.
Meanwhile there seems to be word that the Russians have captured the Sil train station outside of Soledar. Don't know for sure though.
Apparently a former Wagner commander has thrown in the towel. Not wanting to re-up after his contract was up he was a little concerned that he would meet the same fate as the other Wagner guy who was killed with a sledgehammer, so he slipped into Finland to seek asylum.
Also, a small memorial to the victims of the Dnipro apartment bombing has appeared in Moscow. Just a small sign that there is opposition in Russia.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced an impending 'major overhaul' of the Russian military, including leadership changes (and, of course, the recently announced increase in total military numbers to 1.5 million). And Putin may announce another mobilization of additional troops within the week. (He may also re-designate the Russian war against Ukraine as an actual 'war').
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A chopper's gone down near or maybe in kindergarten yard near Kyiv, killing at least 18, including the Ukrainian Interior Minister (and other so far unspecified government officials) along with a number of children on the ground.
The Germans appear to have found a further demand to make before they'll allow other European countries to donate their own (but German-built) 'Leopard II' main battle tanks to Ukraine. The Germans have hit upon the idea of demanding that first the United States must provide Ukraine with American made Abrams tanks--gasoline powered fuel guzzlers that require constant maintenance and are widely agreed to be unsuitable for use by the Ukrainians, who don't have the facilities, the training, or most especially the money necessary to provide the required constant upkeep on Abrams tanks.
They've been casting around for weeks for something that they could use as a pretext for keeping tanks out of the hands of Ukrainians, and they seem to think that this demand might work for them (work politically that is; they don't want to publicly admit to trying to keep the Ukrainians from actually winning the war). The Germans haven't tried this before because it's widely acknowledged that the Ukrainians aren't in a position to field and maintain Abrams tanks, but the Germans are running out of other arguments, so they're now looking to withdraw their agreement on that point and to demand that the Ukrainians get American-made Abrams tanks first, before they get any German made, diesel-fueled Leopard II tanks. (Be awhile before we know if the Germans can manage to stick with this dodge, but they're running outta other dodges, so they may try hard to make this one stick.)
A chopper's gone down...
Always a questionable occurrence in the middle of a war. Also a very sad one.
Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has announced an impending 'major overhaul' of the Russian military, including leadership changes...
I'm all for that. He can start with Putin.
Following up on the upcoming second Russian mobilization (and redesignation of the War Against Ukraine as a real war):
It appears that Putin may be intending to simultaneously refine his stated war goals, roll them back to ending the conflict in a manner acceptable to Putin and to Germany; i.e: with the grant of sovereignty to Russia for the four territories Putin has already illegally 'annexed' by Russian proclamation. This would allow Putin to make a temporary truce under the guise of a peace treaty, while declaring it a 'victory' over 'the collective West' to the Russian people (we should remember Hitler's 'peace in our time' after annexing Czechoslovakia), and to then regroup and rebuild, before coming back to take the rest of Ukraine at some later date.
It sounds like Poland is contemplating sending some of its Leopard II tanks to Ukraine without an ok from Germany.
The Kremlin seems offended that Zelenskyy would suggest that he preferred that Russia and Putin did not exist. Considering what they have done to his country it is not really a surprising thought on the part of Zelenskyy.
"…without an ok from Germany."
That has to be taken as the diplomatic equivalent of a public rebuke of Germany's most recent gambit, bein' as Germany hasn't actually turned down a request to allow the transfer, not yet anyway.
Don't look like Germany's new gambit is playin' well across Europe. I've seen hints that Finland may come out next with the public suggestion that they don't need permission from Germany, given that they are not yet NATO members, and given the nature of the emergency, threatening them outside of NATO as it does, they should be able to transfer their Leopard II tanks as they see fit and proper in the face of the extra-NATO threat posed by Russia these days. (Another public rebuke of the German gambit, if it happens.)
And American spokesmen have already said they're 'confident' they'll be able to work these things out with Germany (I think that's Biden-speak for a warning to the Germans that he's got the NATO backing on this one, and that they'll have to come 'round eventually, and that he's prepared to make it easy on 'em, so better to come 'round sooner rather than later). In the end the Germans probably gonna havta give it up, and then everybody's gonna praise them for seeing the light rather than pointing out that they started out shilling for the Russians. (The Russians will remember they tried and that should be good 'nuff for now.)
(I hope the Biden administration's got it figured right; I think they do; hope I'm right 'bout that.)
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"The Kremlin seems offended…"
Putin copyin' Trump's signature moves. (As also shared with the MAGA Trumpkan/Republicans these days.)
"Pride goeth before a fall."
That saying just popped into my head after I saw that Prigozhin was bragging about Wagner taking another small town at the outskirts of Bakhmut. Taking isn't keeping or even controlling.
And even though he has Putin's support, alienating those in control of the Russian military is probably not wise. Numbers do still matter.
Putin copyin' Trump's signature moves.
I don't think Trump is someone to emulate. But maybe that's just me.
"Prigozhin was bragging about Wagner taking another small
town at the outskirts of Bakhmut."
Prigozhin appears to be attempting to generate favorable publicity (publicity he would have automatically received if Wagner had taken Bakhmut; but, failing that, he's now lookin' to create that favorable publicity somewhere else). This suggests that he does not view leading the Wagner Group to victory in Ukraine as his real goal; that's just another stop along the road.
Putin needs to keep an eye on this guy. (As does Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.) He has bigger ambitions.
"PARIS/LVIV, Ukraine, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Germany would not
stand in the way if Poland wants to send its Leopard 2 tanks to
Ukraine, Germany's foreign minister said, signalling a possible
breakthrough for Ukraine as it tries to bolster its forces ahead
of an expected new Russian offensive.
***
"… in an apparent shift in Germany's position, foreign minister
Annalena Baerbock said her government would not block
Poland if it were to send its Leopard 2 tanks without German
approval."
Putin needs to keep an eye on this guy. (As does Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.) He has bigger ambitions.
Yes, indeed. I realize that Putin is getting desperate and is throwing his support to Wagner because they seem to be the only ones to get things done. Of course, that is only because they really are okay with wasting human life in an effort to take a few miles of territory. Who care about convicts anyway?
But there is more than one way for Putin to fall.
"… in an apparent shift in Germany's position, foreign minister
Annalena Baerbock said her government would not block
Poland if it were to send its Leopard 2 tanks without German
approval."
I saw that. Hopefully good news for Ukraine. Although I did see something about Poland wanting to send tanks in partnership with other countries. I guess we'll have to see what transpires.
"I did see something about Poland wanting to send tanks in
partnership with other countries."
Later statements have indicated that, while the Poles would prefer to bring at least 'a small coalition' along with them, they are nevertheless willing to follow the British example and go it alone if it comes down to that (and it probably won't).
Word is that the US will be sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
Looks like Pence is the latest elected official to be caught with classified docs lurking among the dust bunnies. I suspect that, unlike Trump, Biden and Pence have very sloppy staffs. Trump knew what he was doing.
"Any announcement would be a long-term contribution of
Abrams, meaning the Ukrainians will not have them on the
ground anytime soon…. *** For now, the pending
announcement by the US is more to make Germany feel more
comfortable in providing their own tanks."
CNN
Good chance those first few Abrams to eventually show up will end up being semi-stationary guard pieces set next to the Mariinskyi Palace or some such thing. Possible they'll even pull the turbine engines and stick diesel engines in there before delivery to Ukraine. ( Abrams were made to accommodate a diesel engine alternative power source.)
But, the announcement, vague as it was, had the desired effect. Germany will now send a full company of Leopard 2 tanks and will sign off on the other NATO members' contributions. WaPo
Now everybody will shower praise on the Germans and ignore the fact that they really didn't wanna.
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"Pence is the latest elected official to be caught…"
That's gonna seriously disappoint the D.C. based political press corps. They've had trouble getting headline space what with Russia's War Against Ukraine being such fierce competition. They were workin' these Biden documents real hard, tryin' to gin 'em up into a ‛scandal’ so they could take some news space back from the war correspondents, and it was just beginnin' to work too.
Now Pence has rained on their best efforts. They will continue to try, of course, but he's dampened all their fuel.
"Trump knew what he was doing."
Well, he certainly knew what he was doing when he hid the documents instead of giving them back.
Good chance those first few Abrams to eventually show up will end up being semi-stationary guard pieces set next to the Mariinskyi Palace or some such thing.
It sounds like we are going to send 31 Abrams. But it will take a while. The Leopards will arrive sooner.
Now Pence has rained on their best efforts. They will continue to try, of course, but he's dampened all their fuel.
Yup. What goes around, comes around.
Ukraine chose yesterday to drop the other shoe and admit that they'd withdrawn from Soledar. They probably figured to largely bury the headline among the stories about the big battle tanks coming to Ukraine. They probably figured right.
Speculating: Bakhmut may be next on the list of fights abandoned. There's been hints the Ukrainians want to use the fighters they've had committed to Bakhmut for a more important objective further south, perhaps an assault against Russian positions in Crimea.
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"KYIV, Ukraine — Russia launched several volleys of missiles
at Ukraine on Thursday, with strikes reported all over the
country, including the capital, Kyiv, where at least one person
was killed, the authorities said.
"Large booms shook Kyiv about 10 a.m. local time, shortly
after a spokesman for Ukraine’s Air Force command reported
that Russian bombers had fired about 30 missiles at targets
around the country."
NYT
30 missiles: The volleys just keep getting smaller. But they keep coming too.
The Ukrainians also claim to have shot down 24 Saheed drones overnight. (No word on whether any drones got through.)
Possible they'll even pull the turbine engines and stick diesel engines in there before delivery to Ukraine.
This brings up a question. If the turbine engines need jet fuel what was the advantage of using those types of engines?
Ukraine chose yesterday to drop the other shoe and admit that they'd withdrawn from Soledar.
Not sure why there was any issue with announcing that. Everyone knew it and the battlefield is quite fluid.
"… what was the advantage of using those types of engines?"
There are still many who find that choice highly suspect. Wiki say the decision was flagrantly 'political' rather than on the merits, but some folks still suspect simple bribery.
In either case, the main advantage was supposedly ground speed. Those engines will propel a 70 tonne Abrams at sustained speeds of 45 mph (with a governor installed to prevent the drivers from crankin' it up any faster; supposedly it can maintain a sustained 60 mph ungoverned, but that further shortens the working life of the turbine and drivetrain.).
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"Not sure why there was any issue with announcing that."
Didn't want to waste time and effort answering damn fool questions from the press corps would be my guess. Press is now busy with articles about tanks, so, they got the formal admission out of the way while the press is busy with real stuff.
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I noticed that the Thursday total of Russian missiles was raised to fifty-five. That's still lower than the last salvo. And I think I read that forty-nine of 'em got shot down--CBS nightly news said it was forty-seven.
Update on that missile total--they've now identified seventy missiles in this last barrage--still forty-seven intercepts. That makes this round every bit as big as the last one.
Sounds like the Russians may have fired more of the hypersonic missiles as well.
"Russians may have fired more of the hypersonic missiles."
A couple it would seem.
Keep in mind that the hypersonic missile in question here is basically just a 1990s model Russian short-range ballistic missile equipped with a new computer guidance system and a new name ('hypersonic') and rerigged to launch from a Russian bomber rather the the ground launcher it was originally designed to use.
The Ukrainians like to play up the new 'hypersonic' name 'cause they're still angling for some longer range missiles of their own. (Which I think they should already have had.)
They probably should have had the planes as well. Although I have heard that Ukrainian pilots have been training here. So perhaps, like the tanks, that is also in the works.
Rumor's around say the Biden administration is already open to approving the sale of F-16s (which we no longer use, by the way, but do still sell to our allies as a front line 'generation 4' all purpose fighter plane).
…'sale' or more likely outright grant…
Meanwhile, back at the dacha, while Putin seems to be confident that he has enough ammo, medicine seems to be in shorter supply. Not good for ordinary Russians.
…'sale' or more likely outright grant…
I don't see why not.
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