Does it feel sometimes like the whole world is at war?
The Russian invasion of Ukraine goes on without let up, killing civilians and destroying infrastructure for no valid reason.
Here is a recent update:
Meanwhile, as the world watched the events unfold in Ukraine, Iranian protests, which started with the killing of a woman in detention for not wearing a headscarf, have not abated. Even with the violent crackdown by Iranian security forces they seem to be growing.
Then we move to China, which has used a zero tolerance policy to control Covid-19, at the expense of daily life and life itself, for its citizens. A recent fire, which killed and wounded multiple people as it was unreachable by rescue workers due to Covid-19 barriers, has only exacerbated people's anger.
On the surface these three situations seem unique. The first is a territorial land grab, the second is reaction to murder and the third is frustration and anger due to lock downs. But if you look beneath the surface you see populations that are fed up with circumstances created by autocratic regimes. Or just fed up with autocratic regimes, period. Where will all of this end? I don't know. But it is a warning to others who would follow in the footsteps of dictators. Revolution is not necessarily only for the history books.
The last word:
112 comments:
The Ukrainians are resisting the Russian government, of course, but unfortunately the Russian population is not.
We see some young Russian men fleeing from conscription, and some Russian companies trying to expatriate, but the Russian people do not generally resist the War Against Ukraine, not even those who flee from paying its price. (They object to being asked to pay a price, and they object to the fact that they're currently losing that war, but they don't seem to protest Russia having started it in the first place.)
I think what we see in the reaction of the people of Russia is the culmination of years of indoctrination by various regimes. Those who have access to the internet or other outside sources are more aware of the lies that are being told to the populace. Those are the people who do oppose the war. Unfortunately, they don't know how to change what has happened. The same may be true of those in Iran and China who are protesting now. The desire for change is there, but the how to do it is not.
In Iran and China the security forces are strong and will not hesitate to use violence. I think that for the opposition they would have to somehow coopt the military or security forces to actually be able to stage what would be a coup.
They appeal to outside countries to put pressure on their governments, but that really does not work quickly or sometimes at all. The change must come from inside the country. They need organization and long term will.
The Ukrainians have the will because for them it was an outside power that invaded, as you said, and they are fighting for their existence. However, I will say that the Ukrainians also managed to overturn a pro-Russia government by protests and votes, which is what led up to Putin's invasion. I doubt that the people of either Iran or China would be able to vote out their dictators.
Ukraine has also, by their actions, managed to garner military support from outside powers. They are paying a high price in blood for their freedom. They have earned a huge amount of respect.
"I think what we see in the reaction of the people of Russia is
the culmination of years of indoctrination by various regimes."
I think that Russia's been governed by only two 'regimes' since the first days of Russia's independence from the the old Soviet Union.
The first 'regime' was led by Boris Yeltsin, and was more or less friendly towards 'the West'. Putin has headed up the second Russian 'regime' since 1999, when Yeltsin resigned. Putin's gone a different direction. And he didn't turn openly hostile to 'the West' until he was a good ten years into his rule of Russia.
So, what we see here is just ten/twelve years of the most recent indoctrination by just the one Russian 'regime', the second one.
I good part of those who support what Putin is doing are the older generation and the rural populace. Many older people remember the Soviet Union. They were not exactly fond of the changes wrought by its collapse. Their indoctrination came before Putin.
The Soviet Union did have a doctrine. I'll grant ya that much. But it was centered around a promised communal social organization, the brotherhood of the working man and all that stuff. (And a supposedly post-religion loyalty to a humanist philosophy, religion being disfavored by the governing doctrine.) That's not what we're lookin' at here. This is not the old Soviet/communist doctine, somehow survived to bloom again. This is simple smash the weak and steal their stuff, 'cause we want to and we can. The strong prey upon the weak.
This is the 1930s' German world view revisited in 2020s Russia.
It didn't take Hitler ten years to sell Germany on that idea back in the 30's (although he did also have a racial doctrine that went with his sales pitch). It hasn't taken Putin any longer to sell basically the same idea to disenchanted Russians, even without a racial doctrine to go along with it. But it's not an indoctrination. It's simply not doctrinal (if it were they would not have condoned Putin's rapidly shifting and often contradictory justifications for the invasion of Ukraine). It's sociological rather than doctrinal; it's a matter of them just being who they are. And they are not otherwise nice people somehow mislead by their leaders or by a flawed political doctrine. They are simply modern day Huns. At least, that's who they wanna be. Seventy-odd years of accomodation to Soviet-style Communism has done that to them.
Totally agree with your last post Lee, upontil the last sentence. Bc they were like that even long before Communism.
Lynnette: “ In Iran and China the security forces are strong and will not hesitate to use violence. I think that for the opposition they would have to somehow coopt the military or security forces to actually be able to stage what would be a coup.”
I agree. But I would also add that in both cases the prospect for either the security forces or the military (the former is likely the more important) joining an uprising is virtually nil. So no wide spread Revolution that actually matters in either place is forthcoming.
"Bc they were like that even long before Communism."
Everybody was like that long before Communism. (If ya go back far enough.) But, Western European culture 'grew out of it' (or at least they make that claim--Geneva Conventions and that sort of thing). Russia tried another route (communism) which didn't pan out, and the collapse has left them lost and vulnerable.
Putin has made the contrarian point that he's rejecting 'the West' and its rules of international relations and advocates going back to a preëxisting model of international relations, a model based on raw power rather than 'Western' conceits.
And he's taken Russia, frozen in time (or worse) for those seventy odd years back to the before time along with him.
This is not the old Soviet/communist doctine, somehow survived to bloom again.
We may be talking past each other. When I used the term indoctrination I meant simply that those who lived under the Soviet Union's governance were subject to brainwashing, just as Putin has been doing for the past 20 or so years. You look at rural areas of Russia which are very underdeveloped even to the point of having to draw water from wells and you find people who still believe they are living better than the West. That for some reason their country is "great". Yet they are living in a country that has had its resources systematically stolen from them for the benefit of the very few. Those few, whether you are talking the Communist bosses of a bygone era or the mafia thugs of Putin's era, have used propaganda to control the people of Russia, basically playing them for fools.
They have been conditioned to believe what the state media tell them, either about NATO or Ukraine.
You see something similar here with the extreme right and their propaganda about the "evil liberals". In that they are dangerous as well.
But I would also add that in both cases the prospect for either the security forces or the military (the former is likely the more important) joining an uprising is virtually nil. So no wide spread Revolution that actually matters in either place is forthcoming.
I would agree that it is highly unlikely that you would have anyone involved in the security of either country taking part in any uprising per se. There needs to be some leadership, as in Iran in 1979 where they had Khomeini. China, Iran and Russia have all three worked very hard to remove any of that kind of opposition. But that doesn't mean that it cannot grow unseen. A long short, sure, but not totally impossible.
But, Western European culture 'grew out of it' (or at least they make that claim--Geneva Conventions and that sort of thing).
I have to wonder, why that is? I certainly don't think we are in any way special as people. It has to be something else. Perhaps it is as simple as the type of government?
I see the Iranian protesters are out in force celebrating their soccer team's loss to the US.
Meanwhile Paul Whelan seems to have disappeared into the penal system of Russia.
I would suggest strongly that no one travel to Russia. It is not a safe destination for anyone.
Headline: "U.S. signs deal to send air defense missiles to Ukraine"
WashingtonPost
None too soon; be awhile 'fore they get there. (We don't have a surplus of Patriot missile batteries in stock just now, but this might help push Germany to get off the pot and transfer some of their 'excess' capacity in Patriot missiles to Ukraine sooner than we can build some new ones for Ukraine.)
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"We may be talking past each other."
Quite possibly.
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"I have to wonder, why that is?"
The short answer is that a social movement known as "The Enlightenment" swept across Europe at a particularly opportune time in European history. (The Czars, especially Peter I and Catherine II, made concerted efforts to import the concepts of 'The Enlightenment' to Russia, but had only very limited success.)
The brutal history of European religious warfare (Catholic vs Protestant) just before the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, along with the success of that treaty, had made Europeans particularly susceptible to the idea of "rules" for warfare. And then along came 'The Enlightenment'. And that makes for Geneva Conventions coming later. (I.e: We got lucky.)
Why that happened to happen can be and has been the subject of much public theorizing, speculation, pontification, and pedantry, which I shall now try to avoid. And so, moving right along….
"…as in Iran in 1979 where they had Khomeini."
It should be remembered that the military was intensely loyal to the Shah, and were expected to be his trump card. At least the officer corps was so loyal; the grunt soldiers turn out to be another matter entirely. In the end, the officers corps declared the army 'neutral' on the issue of the uprising and took their troops back to their barracks. (Khomenei and the religious right-wing had not yet taken full control of the protest movement when that happened--not clear the officers would have agreed to go back to barracks if they'd known the ayatollahs would eventually win out over the secular protesters--or the grunt troops either for that matter.)
"Iranian protesters are out in force celebrating their soccer
team's loss to the US."
I'd missed that. Gotta think that the U.S. Soccer Federation's brief display of the Iranian flag sans the central emblem of the Islamic Revolution (i.e. the pre-Ayatollah flag) had something to do with that little bit of mischief making, helped it along. They weren't cheering us; they were razzing the Iranian regime.
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The Russians have been pressing hard around Bakhmut the last several days, gaining little ground, if any, at significant expense in blood for both sides. The Ukrainians still seem to think they're getting the better of that exchange (killing way more than they're losing, and killing Wagner Group as a bonus--better than just killing cannon fodder--killing a lot of cannon fodder too though). So they seem inclined to take their losses at Bakhmut on account of they think they're inflicting worse on the Russians. Also it's now mud season, and they don't have to travel to fight at Bakhmut--they're already there. And it's already destroyed, so let the Russians shell that rubble instead of taking their artillery to a lived in place (it's comin' on winter after all)
"U.S. signs deal to send air defense missiles to Ukraine"
This is good news. There is also some talk about giving the Ukrainians more in depth training on how to coordinate military operations. This would be by the US in Germany.
The Russians have been pressing hard around Bakhmut the last several days...
Yes, there is some indications the Russians are trying to move on Bakhmut from the south, circling around behind Ukrainian defenses. But I suspect the Ukrainians are probably planning for that.
What is happening in Bakhmut is just so stupid. Russia doesn't know when to fold and go home there.
There is news that the Russians may be withdrawing from the Zaporizhzhia region.
Meanwhile back at home it seems there have been more mysterious explosions and fires in Russia.
They weren't cheering us; they were razzing the Iranian regime.
I think they were angry that the Iranian team caved and sang the national anthem in the game before. But I sounds like the team's families had been threatened with prison and torture.
I can see why Putin gets along so well with that regime.
"What is happening in Bakhmut is just so stupid."
I've been rethinking that one in light of the leak of Putin's "5,000,000 man" army memo.
I'd read speculation before that the Wagner Group was trying to impress the Kremlin with the fact that they could gain ground against the Ukrainians when all other Russian soldiers couldn't even hold the ground they already had, that Wagner Group was looking to score points in Moscow and didn't really care about Bakhmut as strategic ground; rather, they cared about proving their prowess in Bakhmut.
Well, I been rethinking that in light of those remarks from Putin about needing a five million man army. There may be additional reasons beyond just impressing Putin. Could be that Putin is actively looking for a different way to win his war--for tactics that might work against Ukraine (the Russians' tactics have been unimpressive so far). Maybe he's testing out whether a sufficient body count of massed cannon fodder can carry the day, make the Ukrainians finally flinch and pull back. After all, Ukraine's available population is considerably smaller than Russia's available population. (The Chinese had some success with 'human wave' attacks in Korea. Maybe Putin's testing it out for possible use in Ukraine.) And the number of dead ain't gonna bother Putin if he can win in the end. If he wins he can just lie about the death toll later. He don't care 'bout the dead, just the win.
Could be he sees Bakhmut as a test case for 'human wave' attacks yet to come when he's got those five million men in uniform.
Then again, I guess it could also be the Russians are just got stuck on stupid, as the sayin' goes.
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"Yes, there is some indications the Russians are trying to move
on Bakhmut from the south"
That's not not new. They been tryin' to get around the southern perimeter for several weeks. Still tryin'. Bringing cannon fodder in by the horde now.
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"There is news that the Russians may be withdrawing from the
Zaporizhzhia region."
Yeah, been rumors to that effect for 'bout a week that I know of. Even some troop movements hinting that it might be true. The Russians have officially denied the rumors, been denying it for a couple of days now, but that don't mean nothin'.
I have trouble believing those rumors though. It'd leave Crimea too exposed. I think those 'troop movements hinting' at a withdrawal in Zaporizhzhia are probably the Russians moving back into more defensible positions, and digging in there, giving up on offense for the time being. I think the Ukrainians will still have to drive the Russians out down there just like they drove them back from Kharkiv in the north--maybe while the Russians are paying too much attention to Bakhmut.
Then again, I guess it could also be the Russians are just got stuck on stupid, as the sayin' goes.
That gets my vote. At some point the cannon fodder is going to turn on them.
I have trouble believing those rumors though.
We will have to wait and see. The Ukrainians have stepped up their Special Ops in the region. The Russians may just be relocating, as you say, to protect the equipment, not their people as they don't seem to care about them, but definitely their equipment.
Ukraine is saying that the Russians have been lobbing dummy missiles at them in order to make them expend their air defense resources. Apparently they have taken out the nuclear warheads from old Soviet era rockets. Of course, they may just be out of missiles. The sky has been suspiciously quiet lately.
Headline: "U.S. signs deal to send air defense missiles to Ukraine"
WashingtonPost
I think that headline disappeared. At least I didn't see that in the news feed. I think Ukraine is still waiting on a decision for Patriot missile defenses.
"I think that headline disappeared."
I think you're right. Not only the headline, the entire entry disappeared. But I didn't imagine it. The article was mentioned in morning 'roundup' yesterday morning on the JustSecurity website. (Second paragraph--same problem for them--same link I put up and it still ain't there anymore.)
And I'd also heard about the de-nuked 'dummy' missiles. Hard to say what the Russians are thinking there, but the speculation I'd read was that the Russians figured that even without an explosive warhead the kinetic effect (plus burning residual rocket fuel) could still do considerable damage to their target if they scored a direct hit.
"The Ukrainians have stepped up their Special Ops in the region."
I don't think the Russians are "just" relocating down there. I think they're sending troops from there up to Bakhmut (dumb move that), and they have to get the remaining troops into better positions for defenses.
And I'm sticking by my prediction (last thread) that the Ukrainians will try to go through those defenses clear to Crimea as the next significant target.
The European Union has finally agreed to try to cap the price of Russian crude oil at $60/barrel. That's a better (lower) price than I was expecting (in fact, I wasn't optimistic about them coming to any agreement on price), but it's probably not going to effect Russian revenues for the time being. (The Russians' current buyers and OPEC partners have been working diligently on the ways and means to evade the E.U. sanctioned prices.) Might bite later on, but for now it's not going to have much financial effect.
Still, it's a beginning. That's more than I was expecting.
Post Script: Russia has promised to refuse to sell oil to any country which agrees to the price caps.
...still do considerable damage to their target if they scored a direct hit.
Yeah, I saw that speculation too. The problem with that for Russia is the "direct hit" part. But it is still a danger for Ukraine.
I think they're sending troops from there up to Bakhmut (dumb move that), ...
I really do think that the Bakhmut area is a meat grinder for those fighting there. The Russians are just throwing cannon fodder at the Ukrainians in hopes that they run out of ammunition. A Russian soldier, especially the newly mobilized, is very expendable. At least to Putin. All protestations of how much he "cares" aside.
Post Script: Russia has promised to refuse to sell oil to any country which agrees to the price caps.
The fellow from Inside Russia, who currently is outside Russia, seems to think the Russian economy, despite outside appearances, is in trouble. He was the YouTube channel I linked to in a previous post. I haven't had time to listen to all of his remarks, he tends to drag things out as you may remember.
"… the Russian economy, despite outside appearances, is in trouble."
He's not the only one who thinks that. I've read a couple of articles of late that claim things are getting dicey for their economy, that it's on the edge of a serious contraction along with some serious inflation. (More on this below.)
And I hadn't mentioned it before, but I think I will now. I think there's a more than negligible chance that the Russians will abandon the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant before too long. They've never been able to figure out how to swing its power output to their own use (in Crimea would be where they'd find it most useful). They may finally give up on that project and abandon the facility before too long. There's also a real danger that they'll arrange for a meltdown as they leave.
In this morning's updates:
"Ukrainian forces have reportedly crossed the Dnieper
River into the eastern bank after Ukrainian officials
urged residents on that Russian-occupied side to flee
into the Ukrainian-held regional capital of Kherson.
A video posted on a Telegram page of a volunteer Ukrainian
special forces team showed a Ukrainian flag tied to a crane
near the shore, which the fighters described as ‛a spring-
board for the de-occupation of the left bank of the Kherson
region.’"
WaPo
"List of world’s most expensive cities altered by war
in Ukraine: A list of the most expensive cities in which to
live changed drastically this year….
"Moscow and St. Petersburg, the most populous cities in
Russia, had the most drastic jumps in rank of any city included
on the list…."
Ibid.
A large power outage in North Carolina that impacts around 40,000 people. Police are saying it was an "act of violence". Investigators are looking at a domestic group as being responsible. It seems the crazies here in the US are taking a leaf out of Putin's playbook.
They will face serious criminal charges when/if they are caught. There were probably insiders involved considering the coordinated attack.
Chinese authorities may have blinked. It sounds like they are looking to ease Covid rules.
There's also a real danger that they'll arrange for a meltdown as they leave.
Rather like they mined that damn in the Kherson region before they left. Always a danger. But better they are gone.
Oh, I did want to mention that Russia appears to have lost another MIG fighter jet. This one in the eastern part of Russia. Not only have they not maintained their tanks their planes haven't had much love either.
"Chinese authorities may have blinked."
If so, Xi will be lookin' to inflict some payback somewhere down the road. He will not forget, nor forgive.
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"…their planes haven't had much love either."
And their pilots haven't been getting enough flight time to maintain necessary skill levels (fuel for practice flights costs money that the generals would prefer to siphon off for themselves).
(N.B. The Ukrainians also shot down another Russian attack chopper yesterday KyivIndependent.)
It appears that the new German Chancellor still thinks that if he just wishes hard enough the Russians can be persuaded to be good buddies with Germany again. Perhaps it's a Christmas thing.
"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany must
play a ‛new role’ as ‛one of the main providers of security
in Europe’ in the face of Russia’s aggression. ‛Russia’s
revanchist imperialism must be stopped,’ Scholz argues in
Foreign Affairs magazine, adding that the world faces an
‛epochal tectonic shift’ that is changing the geopolitical order
and globalization. However, he argues, the West and its allies
should ‛avoid the temptation to once again divide the world
into blocs. This means making every effort to build new
partnerships, pragmatically and without ideological
blinders.’"
WaPo
Twixt that and Macron's offer of future 'special security guarantees' to Russia, Putin's actually had a fairly good week. (Off the battlefield anyway.)
Russia is claiming that two of their airbases inside Russia were attacked. They accuse someone of attacking them with drones.
However, he argues, the West and its allies
should ‛avoid the temptation to once again divide the world
into blocs. This means making every effort to build new
partnerships, pragmatically and without ideological
blinders.’"
It takes two to tango. I don't think we are the ones who are dividing the world.
"I don't think we are the ones who are dividing the world."
I think you're misinterpreting what he said there. That is, I think you may actually believe he means what he said; you're takin' it at face value. I don't believe he means it. I think he means something else. He's polishing up Germany's dancing shoes here. He wants Germany to be one of the two who come first to the tango.
What he means is Germany is eager to rebuild its relationship with Russia as soon as this war ends, and he don't want the rest of NATO raggin' on 'em 'bout it when the opportunity for Germany to start buddying up to Russia comes 'round again.
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Developing conventional wisdom has it that it was the Ukrainians (with forward deployed special ops teams deep inside Russia) hit those Russian air bases using old Soviet-era jet powered drones, updated to play today with Ukraine's ad-hoc mom & pop weapons industry. (It reminds me of Doolittle's Raiders attacking Japan in WWII. Ain't enough it's gonna change the progress of the war, but it upset the bad guys more than the explosions were actually worth--got in their heads it did. If they can hit those air bases they can reach Moscow)
It looks like there was another attack on a Russian airbase closer to the Ukrainian border in Kursk.
Ain't enough it's gonna change the progress of the war,...
Everything has to have a beginning.
It looks like Hungary has blocked the $18.9 Billion package of aid to Ukraine. They, along, with Turkey are still blocking the expansion of NATO as well. Those countries have yet to approve the inclusion of Finland and Sweden. So I don't think it is just Germany that may want to cozy up to Russia after the war. Well, actually, it looks like they are not waiting for the end of the war.
That's the EU aid package, of course.
Warnock won. Slim margin, but a win.
Lynnette in Minnesota
"…there was another attack on a Russian airbase…"
Actually it was an attack on a fuel depot next door to the Russian airfield. They managed to set the depot afire. (Not clear to me that the fuel depot was technically included within the airbase's boundaries. Nor does it appear to me that this boundary question makes much real world difference. They were right there together.) The Russians brought in three 'fire trains' to fight the fire along with the local assets available. (I didn't know the Russians used 'fire trains', but apparently they do--they depend a lot on rail transportation.)
They also launched another salvo against Ukraine in retaliation. Sixty air-launched missiles in today's salvo (bomber launched, don't know if there were any ship-launched missiles included), no mention of drones. Monday's retaliatory salvo was seventy ship-launched and air-launched missiles, no drones that I recall being mentioned. The big salvo before that was ninety-odd missiles, and at least five drones. There seems to be a clear trend developing here. (Although, Wednesday, overnight Tuesday here in The States, Ukraine took hits from some old S-300 missiles and also shot down another fourteen Iranian drones, one Russian-made drone, and another two whose origin is not yet determined--seventeen in all. Additional drones (number not specified) made it through in Zaporizhzhia Oblast. New supplies from Iran perhaps.)
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No, Hungary and Turkey are not waiting for the end of the war to buddy up to Russia.
I think both the EU and NATO need to develop procedures to curtail the power of the 'lone holdout' allied with Russia's interests. Their requirement of 100% unanimity is giving Russia's allies within those organizations too much power to block the organizations' interests. I'm thinking along the lines of a procedure to eject recalcitrant members. That doesn't mean I'd necessarily recommend ejecting either Hungary or Turkey from the EU or NATO, respectively (not right now anyway), but I do think the power to do so ought to be available to a supermajority vote (say 90% maybe). It should cause Russia's allies to restrain themselves from being too often too obviously recalcitrant in the service of Russia's interests.
(I think I may have mentioned this before.)
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I also think that the Biden administration is eventually gonna havta revisit its policy of not allowing the use of American supplied weaponry to strike across the border into Russia. If Putin can continue to fire long-range into Ukraine from a 'safe harbor' behind Russia's national borders there will be little incentive for him to stop. He can keep it up virtually forever, and has no reason quit.
So; I think the Biden administration might oughta revisit that policy sooner rather than later.
They're being too cautious--we've already found out that Putin's not willing to go nuclear over this acquisition. He wouldn't have pulled back from Kherson if he were that invested in it, that fanatical.
________________________________
"Warnock won."
That means Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema have lost their veto power (recalling the antics of Recep Erdoğan and Viktor Orbán mentioned above ↑↑). For Manchin or Sinema to maintain their veto vote over the Democrats they'll need both votes now--two negative votes--which means they'll have to coöperate and coördinate their votes. Neither of them being especially known for being coöperative, it's unlikely they'll suddenly be able to grow that talent when dealing with one another.
Of course, the Democrats lost the House, so that may not matter as much as it would have last year.
Correcting bad editing: "Sixty air-launched missiles in Tuesday's salvo…".
Their requirement of 100% unanimity is giving Russia's allies within those organizations too much power to block the organizations' interests. I'm thinking along the lines of a procedure to eject recalcitrant members...
I would agree with that. NATA has expanded beyond the core founding countries. It would be wise to expand its flexibility as well.
I also think that the Biden administration is eventually gonna havta revisit its policy of not allowing the use of American supplied weaponry to strike across the border into Russia.
They may be inching that way.
John Kirby at a recent press conference:
“We have not certainly not encouraged, nor have we enabled Ukraine to strike into Russia. Our focus has been — and remains on — making sure that they have the capabilities they need, the resources they need to defend themselves," Kirby said. "Everything that we're providing is really designed with that in mind.”
“We are providing them information to help them defend themselves. We certainly are providing them resources and material weapons to defend themselves. But they make their own decisions. And the whole idea, the whole principle behind this war is one of sovereignty and unlike the Russians, we respect Ukrainian sovereignty. When we give them a weapons system, it belongs to them, where they use it, how they use it, how much ammunition they use, to use in that system, those are, those are Ukrainian decisions and we respect that,” he added.
Of course, the Democrats lost the House, so that may not matter as much as it would have last year.
This is true. However, it is much better than losing both.
And it seems that Kevin McCarthy is having a rocky path to Speaker.
I am at least encouraged that many election deniers in various places did not get in. It gives me a little hope.
Btw, did you happen to notice at the Gold Medal ceremony in Washington that the family of Police Officer Brian Sicknick walked on by McConnell and McCarthy without shaking their hands? I rather nicely put statement, that.
"A" not "I"
...shot down another fourteen Iranian drones, one Russian-made drone, and another two whose origin is not yet determined...
There was a Russian fighter jet somewhere in that mix as well.
"…did you happen to notice…?"
Brian Williams, hosting NBC's Nightly News on Tuesday night, was good enough to point that out to me, and he showed me video as well.
________________________________
"Russia is working to extend defensive positions along its
international border with Ukraine and inside its Belgorod
region, Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Wednesday, noting
that Russia was installing ‛more elaborate’ defense systems."
WaPo
Let's consider that a minute.
According to the Brits: Russia is preparing to defend against the Ukrainians advancing the battlefront on the ground into Russia? Ukrainian ground forces counter-attack to the east and take the fight inside Russia proper--fight the Russians on Russian home ground--that's what they're supposedly preparing for?
I gotta wonder what the Russians might know that our guys apparently don't yet know.
Or maybe this is bad intel.
Or maybe the Russians are just getting a little panicky.
But, somethin's definitely a little weird here. I think I'll keep an eye out for this subject to maybe come up again.
(Or, maybe it'll be like the Patriot missile story; soon to vanish, never to be heard from again.)
Russia is working to extend defensive positions along its
international border with Ukraine and inside its Belgorod
region...
If true it is a good waste of Russian resources.
Or maybe the Russians are just getting a little panicky.
Possibly someone is playing with their heads.
Meanwhile it appears that Ukraine has attacked Berdyansk, again. Those Ukrainians seem to be everywhere.
Brittney Griner has been released from Russian custody in exchange for a Russian arms dealer. Unfortunately, Paul Whelan was left out of that deal. They seem to think they can get something better in exchange.
I am happy for Brittney, but really wish people would think before they travel to countries like Russia.
Apparently there was a plot in Germany to overthrow the government by right wing extremists. One of the things they were planning was destruction of the nation's electrical infrastructure.
That kind of puts a different spin on the recent attack on our power infrastructure.
"Fighting is intensifying in the battered city of Bakhmut
in the Donetsk region, Ukraine’s armed forces said Thursday.
‛The enemy does not stop trying to go on the offensive,’
officials said in a Facebook update. Ukrainian President
Zelensky on Wednesday described the area is one of the
‛hottest spots’ of the conflict."
WaPo
Also, a little bit more, related somewhat to that note about Russians 'digging in' defensive positions inside the Russian Belgorod Oblast…
"Russia has created an ‛almost continuous trench system’
along a 37-mile strip of land between the Russian border and
the occupied city of Svatove, which sits north of Luhansk,
Britain’s Ministry of Defense said Thursday. Ukraine has begun
to make gains at the edges of the occupied Luhansk region,
which borders Russia."
Ibid
(Svatove in far western Luhansk Oblast in Ukraine is actually miles to the east (and a little bit south) of municipal Belgorod. It's closest approach to the Russian border is to travel due north. That must be where the '37-mile strip' is located--due north to the border from the town of Svatove.)
________________________________
"…it appears that Ukraine has attacked Berdyansk, again.…"
Sevastopol as well. The Russians claim to have shot down the attacking drone at Sevastopol, but locals report hearing a very large explosion, so maybe they got it, maybe they didn't. We'll probably hear more on this later.
________________________________
"Unfortunately, Paul Whelan was left out of that deal."
I believe we can lay the blame for that on the celebrity fuss put up over Griner. Putin knew Biden was getting almost daily pressure from the press for the celebrity. That made her more valuable than she'd have been otherwise--the higher price applied to her, not to Whelan. (We'd never offered Viktor Bout for the return of Whelan; Bout was 'worth more' than Whelan, way more; we wouldn't make that trade--ahh but… There was a celebrity fuss arose over Griner, and her price went through the roof--so, all of Bout just for Griner. We're probably lucky Biden was even able to make that trade without having to throw in some 'boot' from our side. All that public fuss about getting Griner back just made it harder and more expensive to get her back and meant Putin didn't have to sweeten the pot with Whelan.)
________________________________
"Apparently there was a plot in Germany to overthrow the
government by right wing extremists."
That seems to be goin' 'round these days. I hadn't heard 'bout the electrical plot though. (I didn't pay the story much attention beyond noting that they'd wrapped 'em up, pretty much all of 'em. I did hear that one of 'em had a legacy royal title of "Prince" from some old central German Black Forest demi-state from the days before Germany was first unified.)
"That kind of puts a different spin on the recent attack on our
power infrastructure."
You figure it to be a Trumpkin test run then? Preppin' for 2024?
You figure it to be a Trumpkin test run then? Preppin' for 2024?
I don't know about the timing but a test run did occur to me.
I believe we can lay the blame for that on the celebrity fuss put up over Griner.
It sounds like the Russians really, really, wanted Krasikov, the guy the Germans have in prison for murder. He wasn't ours to deal and the Germans didn't have any interest in doing the US a favor by offering him up.
The Russians want a spy in return for Whelan who they have imprisoned on trumped up espionage charges. I guess our only recourse would be to snatch a Russian spy and trade.
Seems Sinema is changing to, or maybe just coming out, as an Independent. Speculation is that she wants to make herself more attractive for the next election.
"Speculation is that she wants to make herself more attractive
for the next election."
Sinema just wants to get to the next election. She was gonna get primaried, and she was gonna lose that primary to a Democrat. She's now avoided that primary loss.
She's figurin' she's got a decent shot at claiming 'center ground' in a three way race--better chance than she had at winning a Democratic primary anyway. She might even bluff the Democrats entirely out of running their own candidate for that seat, on the theory that it'll only help the Republicans if she and the Democrat split the non-Trumpkin vote. If the Democrats don't bluff, well, then she has to decide if she really wants to try to win the three-way race, and probably throw the election to the Republicans in the process. (She hasn't actually announced that she's gonna run again.)
________________________________
The battle for Bakhmut continues unabated. It has, in fact, spread to surrounding villages where the Russians are piling up new conscripts who can't yet find a place in the trenches surrounding Bakhmut itself. They appear to be trying to force a win over the Ukrainian defenders by presenting an overwhelming mass of artillery fire and walking cannon fodder--trying to 'bull' their way through by sheer weight. Tough stuff, but they ain't been able to get through so far.
________________________________
"… imprisoned on trumped up espionage charges."
I'm not convinced that the espionage charges against Whelan are totally without merit. Maybe, maybe not.
Either way, I am pleased that Ms. Griner has been returned to her wife and family; I can now hope that she will soon lose her misplacement to the war headlines.
Russia's fielding Iranian drones again, fifteen launched at the electrical connections for Odessa, municipal Kherson, and Mykolaiv just this morning. Five got through. Odessa's gone dark again. NYT
The battle for Bakhmut continues unabated.
Yes, only now it is getting a lot more press.
Russia's fielding Iranian drones again,...
Because they can't build their own.
They also seem to be having problems within Russia of maintaining what they have. The recent casualty of poor maintenance or something else was a shopping center. A fire seemed to lead to multiple explosions within the complex. Probably flammable material in the hardware store cooking off. I've never seen a mall go up like that before.
"…now it is getting a lot more press."
That's probably because it's been getting a lot more soldiers for at least a few weeks now; specifically, it's been getting an incoming tide of regular army Russian troops to fortify the assaults. That causes Zelenskyy to mention it specifically in his nightly report to the Ukrainian people; 'a lot more press' then follows right along.
Looks to me like the Russian Army has showed up in force in support of the Wagner Group's repeated vain advances against Bakhmut. (I'll say more on this later.) But, for now, that new support doesn't seem to be making any significant difference in the outcomes. The Ukrainians are still holding firm.
"I've never seen a mall go up like that before."
Poor construction techniques in evidence there; probably lax building codes; specifically, a lack of enforced requirements for firewalls between the various tenants.
Meanwhile while everyone has been looking at Bakhmut the Ukrainians have launched a rather large strike against Malitipol. Also another strike in Crimea at a Russian Military barracks.
That was me...Lynnette
Elsewhere:
"The Council of the European Union announced Saturday that
it had reached a tentative agreement to loan 18 billion euros
to Ukraine in 2023 to finance the war-torn nation’s immediate
needs, such as rehabilitating critical infrastructure. The Europ
-ean Parliament will consider adopting the proposal next
week."
WaPo
They seem to think they've found a way around Viktor Orbán's vote for Russia. They simply moved the voting venue to the EU's "Council" where Hungary doesn't have a veto power. They appear to believe it has concurrent jurisdiction over the question loans (the other was foreign aid--an outright grant, but the loans will probably be forgiven when they come due; Orbán won't have a veto over that either).
U.S. analysts have concluded that a part of the reason for Russia firing old nuclear missiles (stripped of their nuclear warheads) is to use them as cover for the missiles with real warheads being launched along side of the dummies; decoys in effect. (Makes sense to me.)
And, the Ukrainians have figured out that at least some of those 'dummy' missiles are in fact ex-Ukrainian nuclear missiles--surrendered to Russia back in 1994, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear war capablity to Russia in exchange for a Russian promise to respect and even defend Ukraine's then borders. (the Budapest Memorandum)
They seem to think they've found a way around Viktor Orbán's vote for Russia.
Where there's a will there's a way.
And, the Ukrainians have figured out that at least some of those 'dummy' missiles are in fact ex-Ukrainian nuclear missiles--surrendered to Russia back in 1994, when Ukraine gave up its nuclear war capablity to Russia in exchange for a Russian promise to respect and even defend Ukraine's then borders.
Adding insult to injury.
The attack by Ukraine on Melitopol seems to have targeted regular Russian troops from Chechnya. There are differing accounts of how many killed or injured.
There were rumors of problems in Chechnya itself. Perhaps the populace does not care for being used as cannon fodder either?
The attack in Crimea on the same day targeted a barracks of newly mobilized soldiers.
"… insult to injury."
That's precisely the phrase that crossed my mind.
"The attack by Ukraine on Melitopol seems to have targeted
regular Russian troops from Chechnya."
They also dropped one of the missiles on the local headquarters of the Wagner Group (who'd set themselves up in a local hotel). They seem to think they killed a respectable number of the headquarters type honchos.
And, back in Moscow… Putin has canceled his annual December press interview. These things usually run on for hours as Putin actually takes questions from the foreign press--not this year though. (Persistent rumors immediately resurfaced regarding his health, although it's rather likely that he just doesn't want to answer questions about his War on Ukraine.)
Well, it seems that headline that disappeared about air defense systems being sent to Ukraine wasn't bogus. Maybe they just jumped the gun, so to speak.
CNN is now also reporting that the US will send Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. No word on how many. Which is understandable. Don't want to give everything away.
(Persistent rumors immediately resurfaced regarding his health, although it's rather likely that he just doesn't want to answer questions about his War on Ukraine.)
My guess would be the same, he just doesn't to answer questions. Although, I thought he looked a little thinner the last time I saw him on the news.
Revisiting the notion of:
"… insult to injury."
It's also been mentioned that some of those old Ukrainian nuclear missiles have been repacked with high-explosive warheads (this alongside the dummy warheads fired in some of them). So, they put an explosive payload on one if they've got an explosive payload that'll fit, otherwise they send a dummy warhead (ballast for balance--so the missile flies as it was designed to fly)
This is more evidence for the proposition that the Russians are scrambling for supplies of guided, long-distance weaponry. (It's also said that the Russians have been pulling out 40 year old artillery shells from almost forgotten ammo dumps. Some of it in not particularly good shape. Of course, we're scrambling around for old Soviet ammo as well, but that's partly because the Biden administration still doesn't want to give Ukraine newer American firepower.)
________________________________
"No word on how many."
The vanished WaPo squib said there'd be six Patriot batteries. No telling if that's still good information. (A battery can have up to eight separet launchers last I knew--four launch tubes each, equals thirty-two missiles per battery to start--then reload--if ya got more missiles to load.)
While we're on that subject: It seems that President Biden hasn't yet signed off on the transfer of the Patriot missile systems to Ukraine. But the Pentagon's already talking to reporters (not for attribution) about how it's gonna happen--both the training for Ukrainian troops so they can operate what is a very complex system, and the transfer points to get the batteries into Ukraine--detailed plans already in the works.
Somebody maybe was getting out ahead Biden here--then again maybe Biden sent 'em out take the first heat while he laid back, but somethin's sneaky goin' on here. They don't generally leak things like that before Biden signs off on the plan.
"I thought he looked a little thinner the last time…"
Last pictures I saw, I also thought he'd slimmed down a bit. But, he could afford to get thinner; he'd been getting heavier all through the year; last year too, even earlier--he was first startin' to get round faced when Trump was still President.
That doesn't mean he's not ill; nor does it mean he ever was ill. He's gettin' old; his weight fluctuated--can't draw conclusions just from that. (The "Putin is ill" crowd was calling it "puffy" rather than just fatter, but I don' think they could tell the difference from photographs or video taken at distance, and Putin is famous for keeping a "social distance" from everybody, cameramen included.)
________________________________
Moving on: There was a lot of ink spilled earlier in the autumn about how the war would wind down in the bad weather. But that don't seem to happenin'. The Russians are firing everything they can still fire at Ukrainian civilians and civil infrastructure--leaving no shots not taken. The Ukrainians, for their part, are matching that effort, and adding a ground game that moves on in spite of the mud and the weather. Ain't nobody seems to be slowin' down for winter.
I'm just gonna pretend that typo didn't happen.
I couldn't find a link for this so ended up copying the whole thing. This was from CNN's Live Updates for Ukraine:
Russia slams arrest of citizen in Estonia who the US says attempted to smuggle ammunition
From CNN's Katharina Krebs in London and Tim Lister
The detention of Russian citizen Vadim Konoshchenok in Estonia at the request of the United States is "unacceptable," according to Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Yevgeny Ivanov, who vowed that there will be a response.
The US Justice Department released an indictment Tuesday that said Konoshchenok was arrested in Estonia last week after attempting to smuggle 20 cases of US-made sniper rifle ammunition into Russia in late November.
According to the indictment, Konoshchenok was also stopped by police at the Estonian border with thousands of additional US-made bullets, as well as “semiconductors and other electronic components,” some of which were controlled by the US government “for reasons of anti-terrorism.”
Konoshchenok, who the Justice Department believes is an officer for the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB), is one of a group of seven people indicted, including five Russian citizens and two US citizens. Four of the seven remain at large.
"Konoshchenok – who is suspected to be an FSB officer – would ship or physically smuggle U.S.-origin items from Estonia to Russia, including dual-use electronics, military-grade tactical ammunition and other export-controlled items," according to the statement published by the US Department of Justice.
Ivanov told Russian state media RIA Novosti on Wednesday that "we will not tolerate this, this is not the first time this has happened, this is an unacceptable practice — the detention of our citizens abroad, and every time we will respond to this."
He added the Russian side "so far has no information, except for some statements; so far no papers have been seen."
According to the 16-count indictment, the defendants were associated with two Moscow companies that worked with the FSB to purchase and smuggle sanctioned items — including semiconductors and other electronic equipment — from the US to the Russian military.
An embassy staff member in Estonia visited Konoshchenok on Wednesday, the Russian diplomatic mission in Tallin told state media RIA Novosti.
According to RIA, the Russian diplomatic mission also said that Konoshchenok has a lawyer and "denies accusations of illegal activity."
"The Estonian court has to make a decision on his possible deportation to the United States within the next 60 days," according to the statement.
I had heard about the smuggling ring that was broken up the other day. The focus then was on people who were arrested in the US. This adds a few more details.
Moving on: There was a lot of ink spilled earlier in the autumn about how the war would wind down in the bad weather.
No. The Ukrainians are intent on moving forward, they were just waiting for the ground to harden. And the Russians can't stand still or they will be snowballed.
It seems that President Biden hasn't yet signed off on the transfer of the Patriot missile systems to Ukraine.
Gotta keep an element of surprise. Some day they may just appear.
From CNN Live Update:
Russia can't “defeat the NATO bloc” in Ukraine without using nuclear weapons, a Russian commander in the east of the country said on state television Tuesday.
Commander Alexander Khodakovsky of the Russian militia in the Donetsk region said on Russia-1 that Moscow's resources are limited.
He also claimed that Russia is now fighting the entire Western world, which is why the next escalation of the Ukraine war can “only be one: nuclear.”
A rather disturbing remark. However, I think going "nuclear" will not win the war either. Certainly not for Russia.
Russia is saying that the Patriot missile batteries will be a target for them. Well, yes, one would think that would be so. Kind of like they try to target HIMARS.
But their purpose is to shoot down missiles, so...
"Russia is saying that the Patriot missile batteries will be a
target for them."
The Russians will soon be finding more targets than just the Patriots and the HIMARS. Administration spokesmen, "speaking on the condition of anonymity", have announced that we'll be providing JDAMS, smartbomb 'kits', to the Ukrainians, which can be adapted to their current Soviet era aircraft, just bolted onto and into the 'dumb' bombs and missiles the Ukrainians currently use. WaPo
The Russians launched another wave of drones against Kyiv on Wednesday. The second such wave this week. The Ukrainians shot down ten of fifteen in the earlier wave. This time they shot down all of the thirteen Saheed drones targeting Kyiv. NYT (The article says they got 'most' of the drones, but an update on the briefing page makes clear that "most" means all thirteen in this particular case.)
________________________________
"Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Yevgeny Ivanov…vowed
that there will be a response."
Any American not named Steven Seagal needs to haul their ass outta Russia ASAP.
(Unless they have diplomatic immunity; I don't think Putin's quite to the point of taking the American embassy hostage just yet. The budding relationship with Iran nothwithstanding.)
________________________________
I'd seen a report on Commander Khodakovsky in the NYT, and I'd quickly discounted it as play acting. I figure the Commander was just being a puppet for Putin. I can't see an active duty Russian Commander saying such a thing to the public without orders to do so, and I certainly don't think Russian TV would then run it without Putin's approval. (Maybe Donetsk TV, if they had a TV channel--which they don't, but Russian TV has been put under rather firm control from the Kremlin.) And, of course, Putin has recently rejected the possibility of going nuclear to gain mastery over Ukraine, even as he almost simultaneously said he was considering loosening Russia's (official) first strike prohibitions.
Putin's just trying to make NATO nervous is all that is.
Post Script: By the way… The Russians have been busy as beavers, building defensive positions across the Donbas, trenches, hard points, pillboxes etc all across the Luhansk region especially, but also in Donetsk. These are made-to-order targets for those new JDAMs we're gonna be sending over.
Any American not named Steven Seagal needs to haul their ass outta Russia ASAP.
I've thought that for some time now. Actually my first thought was that we may have a bargaining chip for Paul Whelan. Note I say "a". If the Russians want to do one to one we can too.
Putin's just trying to make NATO nervous is all that is.
Same with the intercontinental ballistic missile he has been showing off. First strike on the US mainland and Moscow is toast. And we don't need nuclear weapons for that.
The Russians seem a little concerned about the Patriot systems being sent to Ukraine. They are saying there will be consequences. So I have a deal for them, stop sending their missiles and drones into Ukraine and we won't send the Patriots. The Ukrainians won't need them then.
The Russians have been busy as beavers, building defensive positions across the Donbas,...
Yes, and I've heard they have built them in the some of the oddest places.
"I've thought that for some time now."
I do seem to recall some prior mentions of that.
"If the Russians want to do one to one we can too."
Maybe we could offer to trade one of them for Edward Snowden.
________________________________
And the morning headlines bring news of another wave of missiles blanketing Ukrainian cities from Kyiv and Kharkiv in the north to Kherson in the south (also rockets, but the missiles been getting all the ink).
Maybe we could offer to trade one of them for Edward Snowden.
Nah, they can keep him.
And the morning headlines bring news of another wave of missiles blanketing Ukrainian cities...
So much for that deal I proposed.
Lynnette
New computer, messes up my blogger set up.
Strange.
It looks like the Russians fired 76 missiles of which Ukraine shot down 60. One actually fell short landing in Russia itself.
"New computer"
Congratulations. Condolences also; you're probably just starting to find irritations.
________________________________
∙ In his nightly video Zelenskyy told his people that the Russians still have enough missiles to fire several more barrages like yesterday's assault. (Finally they're getting over the tendency to claim that Russia is 'running out' of ammunition. Folks been saying that for weeks now, and it keeps on not being true.)
∙ Recent polling suggests that three quarters of Russia's population still support the War Against Ukraine. (Although, three quarters of those supporters don't support the idea of going nuclear, even with tactical nukes.)
________________________________
I ran across an interesting "play-by-play" review of the Russian decision to go to war against Ukraine, and their opening moves in that war. About ⅔ of the way down, maybe ¾ of the way, there's an explanation that Russian had intended to build a military that would…
"…keep U.S. and NATO forces away by inflicting maximum
damage from afar.
***
"…to use long-range missiles to keep Western forces at bay. In
the event of conflict, Russia intended to blind the enemy and
destroy it from a distance…."
"Putin’s War: The Inside Story of a Catastrophe"
(an 'interactive' article)
Subtitled: Secret battle plans, intercepted communications
and Russian soldiers explain how a “walk in the park” became
a catastrophe for Russia.
Eventually that 'long range' defensive war against NATO became Putin's "Plan C" for the War Against Ukraine. He found that Russia couldn't conquer Ukraine, so now he's going to try to destroy it from a distance, leave it ruined.
(N.B. I had very little problem reading it in Firefox with the Java disabled. But it wanted me to "sign in" when I tried it with Google's Crome browser and Java still "on"; same when I tried it with Opera browser with Java "on". I didn't bother signing in; it was worth the minor glitches I got with the Java off, or so I thought. Although I'm wondering what I missed out on with the 'interactive' part thus disable. I may go back and create a sign in identity anyway.)
"There’s been an ‛uptick in Russia’s campaign of
long-range strikes against Ukraine’s critical national
infrastructure,’ Britain’s Defense Ministry said Saturday in
a daily intelligence update. The waves of strikes ‛have almost
certainly also included Iranian-provided uncrewed aerial
vehicles’ it said, launched from Russia’s Krasnodar region,
rather than from Crimea. The change of launch site could
indicate ‛Russian concerns about the vulnerability of Crimea,’
it added. The Washington Post could not independently verify
the assertions."
WaPo
He found that Russia couldn't conquer Ukraine, so now he's going to try to destroy it from a distance, leave it ruined.
The old "if I can't have it, no one can" mentality.
I may go back and create a sign in identity anyway.
That is still rather annoying. I was not able to view it either. Do they open up the articles after they have "aged" a bit?
"…keep U.S. and NATO forces away by inflicting maximum
damage from afar.
That probably only works with those who do not have long range capabilities themselves. I don't think it would work with the US and NATO. It isn't even working very well with Ukraine, which has has acquired things like HIMARS. Yes, Russia is capable of destroying infrastructure and people, but in the process it is enraging those it is targeting. They only want to fight.
Word is that Russia have moved its Iranian drones, and Iranian trainers, out of Crimea back into Russia itself to avoid being targeted by Ukraine. Given the attacks on its airbases deep inside Russia this move may not prove helpful.
"The old 'if I can't have it, no one can' mentality."
Even more simple than that. It's a common thread for dictators. Resistance must always be punished--always--preferably the resisters should be destroyed. There are a couple of results they intend to achieve with that, one being to warn the potential next up resisters to not resist after all. And, of course, they must be punished simply because they must be punished. They've pissed off the dictator, and the dictator usually gets jollies from punishing people (part of the common mentality that goes with being a dictator.)
"Do they open up the articles after they have 'aged' a bit?"
Not that I know of. But I've not actually pursued that question.
"That probably only works with those who do not have long
range capabilities themselves."
I've been examining the history of destruction from the air. It seems to me that there's a clear pattern of it not causing those getting bombed to give up. Just pisses 'em off instead.
From the Blitz on London and the utter destruction of Coventry, through our failures to subdue a weaker opponent with the massive bombing of North VietNam, and later with the leveling of Falluja. They get more pissed than afraid.
There are a few contrary results, but they have a common thread too. For instance, the people of Germany were solidly in favor of the Nazis and in favor of the war as long as they were bombing the shit outta the English and the Russians. But, when the Allies started a countering, unrelenting carpetbombing of Germany the Nazis quickly fell out of favor with a majority of the German population. I surmise that the difference is that the Germans knew they'd started it, and they had expected the Nazi government to have won the battle for air superiority, that was the price of their enthusiastic support for bombing civilians in England and Russia. The Nazi government had failed to keep that bargain, and paid a serious price in popularity for that failure.
"Given the attacks on its airbases deep inside Russia this move
may not prove helpful."
I'm wondering if the Iranian 'trainers' insisted on that move?
Even so, the attacks inside Russia have been tokens so far. (Like the 'Doolittle Raid' on Tokyo.) But I'm hopeful that the Biden administration will eventually understand that Putin has no incentive to quit his war so long as the Ukrainians cannot strike back into Russia. Absent hits on Russia, he be happy to do this long-range punishment thing for years, even after the Russians are driven out of Ukraine (including Crimea and the Donbas) and he can make himself happy at a fairly low additional cost. You shoulda picked that much up from the NYT interactive article--even with the 'interactive' not working right.
(By the way, I discovered that if I left that page loaded for a fairly long time--ten/twenty minutes in my case--which I did accidentally--too many windows open and I lost track of it--it did finally load more of the 'interactive' stuff and the page worked better. I don't know if your set up will respond the same, but thought I'd mention it.)
Post Script:
And… A majority of the Russian population can be counted on to enthusiastically support the continued punishment of the Ukrainian civilian population well into the future, so long as they don't have pay a price for it. Be free jollies for them; they will enjoy the show on their televisions. That's the way they are. That's the Russian national character that Putin wants to bring back to world dominance.
Tangental subject: Elon Musk is polling on Twitter tonight about whether he should step down as 'Chief Twit' and 1ˢᵗ executive decider.
Apparently it's come to his attention that he's lost a lot of money and a lot of subscribers in a very short time as Twitter's new chief executive.
A majority of the Russian population can be counted on to enthusiastically support the continued punishment of the Ukrainian civilian population well into the future, so long as they don't have pay a price for it.
The price may become clearer once they have lost those 300,000 soldiers Putin think are expendable.
I'm wondering if the Iranian 'trainers' insisted on that move?
Possibly after they lost a few.
Apparently it's come to his attention that he's lost a lot of money and a lot of subscribers in a very short time as Twitter's new chief executive.
Money talks.
Friday it was missiles. Today it's drones.
The Jan. 6th committee is referring Donald Trump, and others, to the DOJ for possible criminal charges. So the ball will be in their court.
Russia is claiming to have shot down 4 HARM missiles in Belgorod.
"The price may become clearer once they have lost those
300,000 soldiers Putin think are expendable."
Speaking of which…
"…the Russian military is now laying plans for mass infantry
attacks akin to the tactics employed by the Soviet Union
during World War II…"
NYT
Those 'human wave' attacks resulted in the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, but they did finally overwhelm the German front lines (who'd outrun their supply lines it should be pointed out).
________________________________
"Russia is claiming to have shot down 4 HARM missiles in
Belgorod."
On its surface that would appear to be a violation of the prohibition against use of American weapons over the border into Russia. But, maybe the Ukrainians got 'em from another NATO member. Or, maybe the Russians are simply lying about what they hit (or if they hit anything).
In any case, the Ukrainians clearly understand that they'll havta strike Russian territory at some point or Putin will continue his long range war against Ukrainian civilians until he either dies or is ousted from power.
________________________________
"The Jan. 6th committee is referring Donald Trump, and
others, to the DOJ for possible criminal charges."
Looks like Trump really needs to win the Republican nomination again. Otherwise the Federalist Society majority on the Supreme Court will have no real incentive to block his prosecution.
________________________________
And……Putin took the time to send the Russian Santa Clause to Ukraine to cheer up his troops and to make them brave and loyal once again.
Doesn't seem to have worked. link
Those 'human wave' attacks resulted in the slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Russian soldiers, but they did finally overwhelm the German front lines (who'd outrun their supply lines it should be pointed out).
Those were different times. The world was less linked. Now Putin really does run the risk of overwhelming his own people before he does the Ukrainians. Or at the very least removing valuable manpower from his domestic economy. Imported North Koreans can only go so far.
Btw, did you see that Ukraine has requested cluster munitions from the US? I haven't seen anything mentioned about that lately.
On its surface that would appear to be a violation of the prohibition against use of American weapons over the border into Russia.
Aren't those the missiles that lock on to radar? So they would be following wherever that may lead, one would think...
Or, maybe the Russians are simply lying...
There is always that. They claimed today that missiles landed in Kursk. Of course, that could have been another incidence of air defense missiles from Ukraine falling into Russia. Kind of like what happened in Poland. They wouldn't be there if they weren't trying to defend themselves.
Doesn't seem to have worked.
Lol! Not surprised.
Zelenskyy is coming to the US. He will meet with Biden and address Congress tomorrow.
"Now Putin really does run the risk of overwhelming his
own people before he does the Ukrainians."
Not sure if you mean his soldiers or his people back in Russia. The folks back in Russia aren't gonna make much of a stink. Some run, but that's about the maximum resistance most of 'em are interested in puttin' up.
"Btw, did you see that Ukraine has requested cluster
munitions from the US?"
Ain't gonna get 'em. Most of our European/NATO allies have signed the treaty banning cluster bombs and it'd make trouble for their leaders in their home countries if they went all in for Ukraine while Ukraine was using 'evil' munitions. Ain't worth the cost in public support. (That's been the decision anyway.)
"Aren't those the missiles that lock on to radar?"
Yes, specifically they look for the bandwidths that suggest targeting radars intended to guide the Russian munitions.
________________________________
The Ukrainians have developed a system for Russian soldiers to 'surrender' to small Ukrainian quadcopter drones which will lead the Russian soldiers safely through the minefields of no-man's-land and bring them to Ukrainian soldiers who are expecting them--instead of having them stumble into Ukrainian positions which will probably deem them to be Russian scouts and shoot them. link
________________________________
"Zelenskyy…will meet with Biden and address Congress
tomorrow."
Short public notice. But he's still gotta get back after the trip, and with the Russians on the lookout for him comin' back.
________________________________
Russia has announced an important and "voluminous" speech to be given by Putin today. NYT
Counter-programming to Zelenskyy's speech to Congress I'd assume.
There are now t-shirts being worn in Ukraine stating simply "Bakhmut holds". Holding Bakhmut is becoming an end in and of itself for the Ukrainian government and the Ukrainian people. Not a smart way to fight a war, but perhaps they need the symbol in these dark, cold hours.
While we're on the subject of Russian "counter programming", Russia appears to have sought a meeting with the Chinese scheduled to compete with Zelenskyy's trip to Washington D.C. The Chinese agreed to meet with Dmitry Medvedev, former President of Russia and now Deputy Chairman of their "Security Council", so he got to meet with Chinese President Xi and Putin gets to meet with his own generals back home in Russia. WaPo
President Zelenskyy, of course, gets to meet with President Biden and give an address to Congress.
Not sure if you mean his soldiers or his people back in Russia.
Both. Russian propaganda being what it is it may come as a rude awakening for some people in Russia as to what is really going on in Ukraine. So many still, or say so anyway, believe that Russia is a peace loving country only defending itself. There are a few people who will say out right that Putin is a liar. For those who have drunk the Kool Aid the stories of the returning soldiers, those who can return, may come as a bit of a shock.
What the Russian people can do, I don't know, that would be up to them to decide.
But he's still gotta get back after the trip, and with the Russians on the lookout for him comin' back.
He's flying courtesy of the US military. Not a good idea for Russia to shoot down a US military plane...
There are now t-shirts being worn in Ukraine stating simply "Bakhmut holds".
They need a morale boost. Maybe it is Bakhmut, maybe it is somewhere else.
While we're on the subject of Russian "counter programming", ...
I just listened to Zelenskyy address Congress. He way outclassed anything the Russians can come up with.
He's one smart and tough little dude who stands 10 feet tall.
"He's one…tough little dude…"
He's taller than Putin, who is, officially, 5'7" tall, but is said to actually be maybe as short as 5'1". (He wears specially constructed shoes--one of the few male world leaders who can walk gracefully in high heels, at least in a straight line on a hard floor.) Zelensky is actually 5'7", maybe 5'6" and rounding it up, like a lot of short men do, but, near 'nuff.
I'm afraid I missed Zelenskyy's address to Congress, although one local station did carry the press conference.
I managed to find a video of Zelenskyy's speech. He did pretty good. It was a better speech than I've seen given from the House floor in a long time. (Of course, we've had four years of Trump's "State of the Union" and one from Biden, so the competition ain't been quite up to Obama level. Obama could occasionally deliver a pretty good speech.) I think it also helped Zelenskyy that he had a grand and stirring subject matter to speak about.
I don't know if it was good enough to carry across two years of Republican control of the House though. That's askin' a lot. Especially as I noticed a few Republican Representatives scowling every time Zelenskyy hit a good line. Made 'em unhappy. (Representatives Boebert and Gaetz come especially to mind there.)
It appears that the Russian "military bloggers" who report on the internet about Russia's War on Ukraine are now pushing the line that Ukraine has proven itself to be a mere 'Washington puppet'. (And they're using Zelenskyy's high-profile appearances in Washington--flown in on an American plane to an American air-base near Washington--as evidence for that argument.)
That argument can conceivably take Putin to some dangerous places.
He did pretty good. It was a better speech than I've seen given from the House floor in a long time.
Especially considering that English is his second language.
Made 'em unhappy. (Representatives Boebert and Gaetz come especially to mind there.)
Not really the people I would feel the need to make happy. But I can see where Zelenskyy wants to walk that fine line. Sad that there is any need to, but there it is.
Ukraine has proven itself to be a mere 'Washington puppet'.
Not surprising that they would push that line. It is how Russia acts with allies. But anyone who really listens to Zelenskyy will understand that it is his desire for a closer relationship. And can anyone blame him? When your country is being decimated by a neighbor who believes you shouldn't exist then requesting help from others is normal.
It is a question of what came first the chicken or the egg? Just about everyone, except Russia, sees Russia as the aggressor, not NATO or Ukraine.
Putin knows the truth, but pushes his lies to keep his people in line.
"They need a morale boost. Maybe it is Bakhmut…."
Bakhmut could very easily turn into a Ukrainian analog to Kobanî.
"For those who have drunk the Kool Aid the stories of the
returning soldiers, those who can return, may come as a bit of
a shock."
I do not share your optimism. I recall the reactions reported from Russians who had family in Ukraine upon being apprised by their Ukrainian son/daughter/brother/sister/father/mother/whomever of the true state of affairs. They simply refused to publicly believe what their own family member was telling them. (Like Trumpkins speaking Russian; they chose to be deceived rather than admit to the obvious.)
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"Putin knows the truth, but pushes his lies to keep his people
in line."
There is a theory that holds to the proposition that a good part of the value of a lie that even the Russian people know is a lie, lies in its power as a marker to those same Russian people. A marker that Putin's government is committed to his propaganda and they damn well better not contradict it in public. So, yeah, 'keep[ing] his people in line' would have a lot to do with it.
I.e: "This is our marker. This is what you will pretend to believe if you know what's good for you."
But, the end point is, most of the Russians who claim to believe the government line are merely pretending to believe it. (They may have different reasons for engaging in the pretense, but it's still a pretense for most Russians.)
I forget where I first ran across this notion, but: The Wagner Group is one of the very few real power centers in Russia not under Putin's command and control.
That realization led me to consider some other notions….
Starting with: Wagner is run by one Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin, sometimes referred to as 'Putin's Chef'. As a private military organization it is already illegal, its very existance is illegal, under current, and clear, Russian law (part of the reason that Prigozhin denied his involvement with Wagner for so many years). But, it's obviously wormed its way into the Russian military/intelligence structure to the extent that Prigozhin no longer fears prosecution from recently making the public admission that he runs Wagner. Prigozhin and the Wagner Group are already above the law in Russia; they don't fear the law anymore. In fact, Wagner seems to be approaching the supra-legal status once held by the German Schutzstaffel, the black uniformed SS--not quite there yet, but gettin' there.
As such, Wagner is one of the very few organizations currently, potentially capable of independently organizing and pulling off a 'palace coup' against Putin, should Prigozhin decide that maybe he rather than Putin should be at the head of Russian state.
Heinrich Himmler, who ran the SS, did not have the charisma to compete with Hitler for the position of Führer, and he knew it. But there's no reason to believe that Prigozhin necessarily suffers from that same disability.
Just a thought.
Rogozin was injured in attack.
Russian politician Dmitry Rogozin, former director general of the Russian state space agency Roscosmos and an ardent supporter of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, was wounded on his birthday late on Wednesday in Russian-occupied Donetsk, an industrial city in the east of Ukraine.
Bakhmut could very easily turn into a Ukrainian analog to Kobanî.
Anything is possible. But I'm not ready yet to call it the Ukrainian Alamo. At least not for Ukraine.
Speaking of Bakhmut there appears to have been a small counterattack on the part of Ukraine. So the back and forth continues.
"Dmitry Rogozin"
As I understand it, he was serving as an advisor/liason to the pro-Russian rebel governments of both the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (perhaps trying to re-aquire relevance after having been sacked from the Russian space agency).
That makes him a legitimate target, in spite of the 'been sacked from the Russian space agency' part of his résumé.
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"Speaking of Bakhmut…"
Yeah, speaking of Bakhmut… Zelenskyy spoke the name of Bakhmut five or six times in his address to Congress. Even brought that signed flag from Bakhmut--made a big public deal about it. That wasn't accidental (he even made a highly publicized personal appearance in Bakhmut, went to get that flag, just before he headed for D.C., within just hours).
Repeat: That wasn't accidental!
He had to know that'd make the Wagner Group more dedicated than ever to taking that pile of rubble away from the Ukrainians, just to show they could. Zelenskyy wanted the Russians to keep fighting in Bakhmut . (It's already destroyed; why not tie down Russian soldiers in a place they can't hurt any worse? Bring 'em on; we already know they'll be comin'; we'll kill 'em right there.) And folks used to talk about Putin supposedly being a brilliant tactician--Putin got nothin' on the bearded ex-TV-comic.
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And…. The Russians have figured out that the Ukrainians have no intention of taking a break in the action on account of winter. Zelenskyy's fighters intend to keep on comin' if they can.
And, so…. Looks like the Russians are gonna try to match that pace. (Especially easy on them as their war plans now chiefly consist of firing long range at Ukrainian civilians until the ammo runs out.)
All that ink spilled about how the fighting would slow down for winter, maybe was just a waste of ink.
We shall soon see….
Preview of coming attractions…
Late yesterday, 201 House Republicans voted against the latest military aid package for Ukraine.
Repeat: That wasn't accidental!
I suspect not. I too think Bakhmut is a decoy, pinning down some of the better equipped and trained troops, the Wagner Group.
The Ukrainians are inching closer to Kremina and have been sending multiple drones into Crimea. The latest was an attack on an oil depot. They were shot down. There is word that the real objective was not actually the oil depot but the forcing of Russia to use expensive missiles to shoot down cheap drones. There is more than one way to destroy Russian ammunition.
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