This past weekend I was trying to think of something for a new post. I had thought about climate change and the dangers it poses to our future. But I have done quite a few posts on that, so I gave it a pass. For now, anyway. Then today I heard those words, in my title, and I just found what I wanted to write about.
As you know I support Ukraine in the war that Russia has imposed on them. But with those words of Vladimir Putin's I, for a moment, felt pity for a people that are so not valued by their own government. Yes those words were part of remarks that Putin was giving in reference to the economic consequences of Russia's war on Ukraine. But they still starkly show how little Putin really cares about the sacrifices of ordinary Russians. They show what is really important to him.
Here is a clip of that:
The brutality and indifference of the Russians to suffering in Ukraine is echoed in the lack of value placed on their own soldiers. Their loss is of no concern to Vladimir Putin.
“We have not lost anything in the actions in Ukraine...” Vladimir Putin
Really?
9/11 Update:
I know I usually do a 9/11 post on the anniversary, but I felt the current state of affairs in Ukraine still deserved our attention. For while the US may not declare Russia a terrorist state, I do feel that their actions are terrorism. On a scale that dwarfs even 9/11.
125 comments:
"But they still starkly show how little Putin really cares about
the sacrifices of ordinary Russians. ***
"The brutality and indifference of the Russians to suffering in
Ukraine is echoed in the lack of value placed on their own
soldiers."
That encapsulates the difference that allows Putin to tell his people they've lost nothing. They haven't lost anything they think important is what that means.
And the population generally agrees with Putin on that.
There is a small anti-war element, but it's quite small, impotent, and it's not growing.
________________________________
---- …from the previous thread… ----
"This is also the first time a judge has formally ruled that the events of
January 6 were an 'insurrection.'"
Good bet that one'll get appealed all the way to the Supreme Court.
________________________________
"I ran across this comment regarding the Ukrainian counteroffensive:"
That fairly describes one of the major flaws of the Russian military system, where all battle decisions are made at the top and the soldiers in the field have to wait for their orders. That model doesn't handle unexpected moves by enemy very well. If they don't already have a standing order that covers the situation they find themselves in, they tend to wait for instructions on what to do, and they often get wrapped up while they're waiting.
________________________________
Off Topic (mostly off topic):
I was watching a PBS' "Frontline" special, two hours long, entitled "Lies, Politics and Democracy" which chronicles the surrender of the Republican Party to the political whims of Donald Trump, and I noticed that the concession speech of John McCain (to Obama) and of Mitt Romney (again to Obama) were both met with boos and catcalls from the Republicans in the audience assembled for the concession speech. They've been willing to ignore their presidential election losses since McCain, and I just hadn't noticed it--didn't take those boos seriously when I should have. This didn't start with Trump.
Might keep that in mind while we're looking down our noses at the political loyalties of the Russian people.
"The United States announced an additional $675 million in weapons transfers to Ukraine on Thursday."
WaPo
And the population generally agrees with Putin on that.
Which is what allows Putin and others in leadership to expend them like cannon fodder. Until someone says enough it will continue. Very sad.
Good bet that one'll get appealed all the way to the Supreme Court.
Yup. That was my first thought when I saw it.
That model doesn't handle unexpected moves by enemy very well.
No, it doesn't. I must say I have been very impressed with the adaptability and ingenuity of the Ukrainians. They have even went so far as to build wooden replicas of the HIMARS we have sent them as decoys. Clever.
Might keep that in mind while we're looking down our noses at the political loyalties of the Russian people.
Oh, believe me, it has crossed my mind that there are similarities between America and Russia. Not all of them good. There are sheople everywhere.
RIP
Queen Elizabeth
"They have even went so far as to build wooden replicas of the HIMARS
we have sent them as decoys…"
Old trick. The Allies used it in WWII against the Germans, drawing the Nazis' attention to concentrations of plywood armor (also balloons in the shape of trucks and tanks and etc.) stored and ready to invade on D-Day in the Pas de Calais region, well north and east of the actual invasion sites.
After D-Day they brought their plywood and balloon armor across the Channel and used them as decoys as they moved on toward Germany. (The Ukrainians have also copied the mine-clearing 'ground-beater' rollers that fit on the front of armored vehicles, also used on D-Day--well, actually we copied them and sent the newer versions to the Ukrainians for the coming offensive.)
Actually the Allies learned this trick from Rommel, one of history’s greatest generals, who had used it successfully in Africa. But probably the use of decoys in war go back centuries before that.
The Russians though seem to never have learned such subtleties but still rely on sending wave after wave of steel and flesh and bombard just in the general direction they are trying to go. This worked when the differences in equipment were quite small. They could win by 1 more men, 2 more equipment and 3 a complete disregard for their own losses.
But up against modern weapons, and the Russians themselves relying on more or less WW2 type equipment, they seem to struggle quite a bit. I am surprised at how inept they actually turned out to be at waging war. Impressed by the Ukranian side though. There’s no lack of fighting spirit there.
Me: “ But probably the use of decoys in war go back centuries before that.”
Well, not probably but actually. We can go back to the Trojan Horse for starters.
I suppose the best tactics will be copied. Still, very good on the part of Ukraine. They are determined to use every trick in the book and then some to regain their land and freedom.
The positive reactions of people to the advancing Ukrainian troops must have been wonderful for the troops to see. And for those Ukrainians in occupied territories it must have been just as wonderful to see the troops.
"Still, very good on the part of Ukraine."
Perhaps better than you know. The Soviets were considered masters of the practice of military decoys ('maskirovka' in Russian ≈ 'masquerade' in English). The Russian Federation carried on the tradition. And still they were fooled. The Ukrainians' fakes were that good, and deployed convincingly, convinced even masters of the art.
Or, perhaps the Russians have simply lost their edge, in this as in many other things. In that case, the Ukrainians' fakes were at least good enough.
"The positive reactions of people to the advancing Ukrainian troops must
have been wonderful for the troops to see."
A lot of the civilians who remained were originally supporters of Russian annexation. (Although I rather doubt they made themselves obvious to either their Kyiv supporting neighbors or to the advancing Ukrainian troops.) The loyal Ukrainian population has had time to flee to the west. It is possible that close contact with marauding Russian troops has soured the remnant on Moscow in the interim, but one never knows. As we can see from our own Trumpkins, political loyalties can be stubborn, even in the face of overwhelming contrary proof.
This morning's rumor (a fairly solid rumor today) is that Izium, Ukraine has fallen to the advancing Ukrainian forces this morning, without a fight!
It is possible that close contact with marauding Russian troops has soured the remnant on Moscow in the interim, ...
Yes, sometimes the reality leaves much to be desired. Time will tell where their loyalty really lies.
They were even reporting about Izium being taken on CNN. Last night the last I saw was that the Ukrainians were close to cutting off supplies to Izium that were coming in via rail and road.
I can see where the Russians would withdraw. I don't think they trust that reinforcements are really going to show up.
Time will tell where their loyalty really lies.
Although some may already proven that.
"have" proven...
Someone had the temerity to utter the I word with regard to Vladimir Putin. Yes, they will be fined, but I have to admire their courage.
Several elected officials in Russia have been summoned by police after they called for the impeachment of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
It occurs to me that expectations are bein' set among the Russian troops in Ukraine.
The Russian troops are learning to expect to pull out when the Ukrainians start to move back in. The Russian line officers are learning to expect their troops are gonna wanna pull back instead of fight. The 'civilian' administrators are learning that there's gonna be a pile up of vehicles at the Russian border, tryin' to cross back into Russia, so try to get there early.
Expectations being set for the future.
This won't be the only influence on expectations, but it's an early one, and all the more powerful for that.
Ukrainian forces are said to be breaking their way into the city of Lysychansk this morning, 75 miles east of Izium and near'bouts the center of Luhansk Oblast.
(Supposedly equally audacious moves being made in Donetsk Oblast and Kharkiv Oblast to the south. Let's hope the Ukrainians haven't gotten overeager here.)
It's being reported that the Ukrainian tech workers at the Zaporizhzhi power plant have completely shut down the entire power plant and are currently setting it to it's 'safest state--cold shutdown'.
It's not clear that the Russian guards were consulted about or even notified of this move.
Very well could be that the Ukrainians think they're in a position to try to retake the power plant and they want it dead cold when they make their move.
I wonder if Putin's scheduled to christen any more amusement parks this weekend?
The Ukrainians seem to be intent on encircling a couple of groups of Russian soldiers. Looking for something to trade perhaps?
Very well could be that the Ukrainians think they're in a position to try to retake the power plant and they want it dead cold when they make their move.
That would be good if possible.
News is that they have restored the powerline to the plant.
Word is the Russians are leaving behind lots of useful things, even a fully functoning drone with instruction book. Panic, much?
I hadn't heard 'bout the drone, but there's a lot of mention of vehicles and weapons and ammo being left behind. (Also being told that the Russians have stolen locals' automobiles in some places, up to 20 automobiles at a pop, and used them to caravan soldiers outta there.)
The Russians have retaliated already, firing on civilian infrastructure, especially power and water. We might expect further retaliations, perhaps even outright terrorism, yet to come.
(I'm thinking that with schools reopening in Ukraine about now, concentrations of children will make a tempting target for Putin's forces.)
I'm hearing that the Ukrainians are near to, or have actually reached, the border with Russia north of Kharkiv.
In the south rumor has it that the Russians have given an order to shoot anyone who tries to swim across the river from the Kherson direction.
There is a Russian document floating around from the Ministry of Finance stating that Russia has lost 48,750 KIA and is losing 8,000 soldiers per month. They were basically requesting more money for payments to widows and families of the soldiers killed. This was from a reliable source, I believe.
Also, it is reported that Moscow Deputies sent a letter to Putin requesting him to resign.
Almost forgot, it is also reported that the pro-Moscow separatists who are also "retreating" are not being allowed into Russia.
I wonder if Putin's scheduled to christen any more amusement parks this weekend?
I think he likes to change it up, a highway here and a sports center there.
Here Putin, there a Putin, everywhere a Putin.
In a development I find most curious, the Russian government has found it necessary to issue a statement to the effect that Putin "is aware" of the "regrouping" of Russian forces in Ukraine.
(All the while the spokesman was making reassuring noises about how their initial objectives in Ukraine "will be achieved". No explanation was given regarding what those initial objectives are currently said to have been.)
Putin's allies not happy
The most influential -- and perhaps surprising -- public critic of the situation was Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, who has supplied thousands of fighters to the offensive. In a Telegram post Sunday, he said he would be contacting senior officials at the Defense Ministry to spell out his message.
"It's clear that mistakes were made. I think they will draw a few conclusions," he said.
Hinting at disarray among commanders, Kadyrov said that "if Russia's General Staff did not want to leave, the (troops) wouldn't back out" -- but Russian soldiers "didn't have proper military training" and that led to them to retreat.
I found it interesting that one of the critics was Kadyrov. There was speculation by a Russian YouTuber that there are signs of cracks in support for Putin. Kadyrov was one of the people he mentioned.
I don't think we would care for Kadyrov to replace Putin though. He is just as bad, if not worse. Same goes for Dugin, who was also mentioned.
A lot of them were encouraged to get Russian citizenship (and especially to accept Russian passports denoting Russian citizenship), so I'm having a little trouble buying that one. But it might indeed be true.
Serve 'em right if it were true.
Yes, that could be Ukrainian disinformation. Same with the shooting anyone who crosses the river cutting the Kherson region. But I wouldn't put either past the Russians.
In a development I find most curious, the Russian government has found it necessary to issue a statement to the effect that Putin "is aware" of the "regrouping" of Russian forces in Ukraine.
lol! Maybe all of that needling early on about Putin being out of touch struck a nerve.
There is some evidence the Ukrainians have not yet decided where to stop and regroup themselves. It would be a shame if they overran their own capability to hold the ground they've so recently retaken.
Yes! Hopefully they are careful.
Looks like this could be settled this year w a Ukranian solid win. The mud season starting in about a month could delay it though.
It’s clear now that morale is very low among Russian troops and many, maybe most of them, aren’t even sure what they’re fighting for.
Morale on the Ukranian side however is super high and has been only rising. Their troops are battle hardened, well trained and now also well equipped from western nations.
I see NO win for Russia in this situation. The most they can do is to punish Europe with the “gas weapon”. But that too will fail and eventually backfire. Yes it’ll be a cold winter in Europe, but we’ll see it through and come out in a couple years not at all dependent on Russia.
"Looks like this could be settled this year w a Ukranian solid win."
I suspect you underestimate Putin's willingness to pour virtually un-trained and poorly armed Russian conscripts onto the slaughterhouse floor month after month after month.
...withdrawing those troops back to Russia proper to reconstruct them as battlefield ready--if that's possible.)
They have abandoned a lot of equipment, so that might prove somewhat problematic. Men with no guns, type of thing. Well, maybe no men either. Sounds like there have been a number of captured Russians as well.
I suspect you underestimate Putin's willingness to pour virtually un-trained and poorly armed Russian conscripts onto the slaughterhouse floor month after month after month.
Ah, yes, back at the dacha it sounds like the number of municipal deputies calling for Putin's resignation has risen to 50. I think Putin may have some pressing domestic matters to attend to.
The Ukrainians appear to be turning their primary attention back to the Kherson area, where their gains over the last week amount to about 500 square miles of territory.
They could always lay back a bit and wait for the Russians to surrender...
I see NO win for Russia in this situation.
This was always a no win situation for Russia, even if they managed to take and hold territory. Putin & Co. just refuse to see that.
"…the number of municipal deputies calling for Putin's resignation has
risen to 50."
Fifty out of how many across all of Russia?
________________________________
Ya'll remember the giant Ferris wheel that Putin blessed Saturday, just as the Ukrainians were routing his army from the Kharkiv Oblast?
Well…that Ferris wheel broke down (as had Putin's army) just a few hours after Putin left; not fixable short term, and so they had to refund all the tickets.
Might be a sign.
Well…that Ferris wheel broke down (as had Putin's army) just a few hours after Putin left; not fixable short term, and so they had to refund all the tickets.
Might be a sign.
ROFL! Might need spare parts from the West.
Fifty out of how many across all of Russia?
Hey, I was just amazed there was one!
Sounds like another Russian executive bit the dust. Drowned. In some way shape or form.
It occurs to me that with all of those Russian POW's scattered around Ukraine, it would be a good opportunity for some re-education. Apparently some have already started to wonder if they haven't been snookered by their own government. Might be a good time to counteract some of that propaganda about Nazis and what not that was bandied about so much by Putin & Co.
Rumors going 'round that Russian troops have fled from the town of Kyselivka, just a few miles north of Kherson city center (as in, less than ten miles). Supposedly a Kherson city official (head of the city council) has reported that the 'occupiers' are beginning to panic.
I've also read that Russian troops across the south shore of Ukraine are beginning to flee into Crimea.
Could be the Russian collapse in the Kharkiv region is starting to cascade to the south.
I Did see reporting about Russiian forces evacuating to Crimea. They may be concerned about being encircled.
"The Kremlin is manufacturing a crisis with its Ministry of
Defense in an attempt to distance President Vladimir Putin
from the stunning retreats and other embarrassing battlefield
failures in Ukraine in recent days, according to a new analysis.
"The Institute for the Study of War, an independent think
tank, noted that Russia has acknowledged its military’s defeat
around Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city, following a
surprise and startlingly effective Ukrainian counteroffensive
beginning last week. That recognition breaks from the
Kremlin’s prior practices of never admitting to tactical failures,
including the rationale for its troops’ inability to advance on
Kyiv in the first days of the invasion more than six months ago
– a maneuver that Putin and his top advisers believed would
topple the government in Kyiv in less than a week – or its
withdrawal from Snake Island, a strategically critical point in
the Black Sea.
"'Kremlin sources are now working to clear Putin of any
responsibility for the defeat, instead blaming the loss of
almost all of occupied Kharkiv Oblast on underinformed
military advisors within Putin’s circle,' the institute noted in
one of its regular analyses published late Tuesday."
USNews
N.B. We might note that the Kremlin was also never willing to acknowledge the Ukrainians had sunk the Russian ship 'Moskva', the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. But they are beginning to acknowledge the loss of the Kharkiv region.
Might be some heads roll in the Ministry of Defense this time.
The Russians are taking shots at dams now. Looks like Putin's temporary response, while he tries toi figure out something more permanent, will be to accelerate his campaign of destruction against Ukraine's civilians and civilian infrastructure.
Lee: ” I suspect you underestimate Putin's willingness to pour virtually un-trained and poorly armed Russian conscripts onto the slaughterhouse floor month after month after month.”
No that was always one of their better weapons. But I can see if failing this time for two reasons. Russian boys and their families back home will be much more reluctant to fight a conquering war on Ukraine than their grandfathers were fighting a protective war against Nazi Germany.
Second, the difference in armorments were not very great during WW2. Today western arms completely eclipse Russian arms. The introduction of the US Himars speaks on its own. Add in a few more of those and the Swedish Archer System (might be coming soon) and all that the Brits have to add, and the Polish. Russia is doomed. No matter the numbers of young boys they force into the meat grinder.
Lee: “ The Russians are taking shots at dams now. Looks like Putin's temporary response, while he tries toi figure out something more permanent, will be to accelerate his campaign of destruction against Ukraine's civilians and civilian infrastructure.”
They’re hitting at anything in the energy sector. They want to take the Ukraine into a complete blackout and starve as much as Europe of energy as well.
My opinion is we have to get through this wo budging to Russia. But it’ll for sure be a bleak winter, it’s gonna really really hurt.
And we have to suffer this bleak winter now for at least one year or maybe a few until we can get out of the Russian stranglehold on our Energy needs (largely created in Germany and especially by German “green” parties, but we have culprits here in Sweden as well).
Bc if we do not suffer the pain now and get out of the Russian gas stranglehold we will just postpone the suffering and have that asshole Putin w a gun to the back of our heads in the future too.
The mass grave recently discovered in Izium, Ukraine was situated in a forest, in amongst the trees, and hidden from aerial view. The Russians may be getting touchy on that subject.
________________________________
Germany had promised Ukraine a supply of Germany's "Leopard" tanks and "Marder Infantry Fighting Vehicles" (the more formidable step-child of Armored Personnel Carriers I think), but has reneged on the offer (greatly pissing off Ukraine in the process) and now will instead provide a fund for needy Ukrainian survivors of the WWII Holocaust, assuming any can still be found surviving and willing to fill out the usually prodigious paperwork that'll go along with awards of German funds.
________________________________
The Biden administration has announced the provision of another $600 million in military aid to Ukraine. (No tanks nor 'fighting vehicles' so far as I noticed.)
Putin has actually come out in public with the fact that Xi, of China, is rather uncomfortable (my words) with the progress of the Russian war in Ukraine. Interesting that it was Putin.
The Kremlin is manufacturing a crisis with its Ministry of
Defense in an attempt to distance President Vladimir Putin
from the stunning retreats and other embarrassing battlefield
failures in Ukraine in recent days,...
Some rather serious ass covering starting to go on.
Perhaps China is less concerned about the performance of the Russian military as it is about how its military might perform in similar circumstances?
I would guess that someone is still analyzing the show that China put on after the Pelosi visit to Taiwan. Thank you, Xi, for the heads up.
[Marcus]:And we have to suffer this bleak winter now for at least one year or maybe a few until we can get out of the Russian stranglehold on our Energy needs (largely created in Germany and especially by German “green” parties, but we have culprits here in Sweden as well).
Looks like Germany is listening.
It seems Germany has taken control three Russian owned oil refineries.
The German government has seized control of three Russian-owned oil refineries to secure supplies of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.
Germany’s economy ministry announced on Friday that it had temporarily taken over Russian oil giant Rosneft’s subsidiaries in the country. Rosneft Deutschland and RN Refining & Marketing account for about 12% of Germany’s oil refining capacity, the ministry said in a statement.
The move was designed to “counter the threat to the security of energy supply,” it added.
The mass grave recently discovered in Izium, Ukraine was situated in a forest, in amongst the trees, and hidden from aerial view. The Russians may be getting touchy on that subject.
Wonder if they will become just as touchy about all of the Russian soldier's bodies they left laying around? They seem to be finding those as well.
It is becoming clear, though, that Ukraine has paid a high price in civilian casualties as well as military. Russia has a lot to answer for.
If they want to find the Nazis they only have to look in the mirror.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it seems that the community on Martha's Vineyard stepped up in a major way to donate supplies to the migrants that were dumped there by DeSantis. Kudos to those who really have tried to help those people. That pretty much leaves out people like DeSantis and Abbott and all of those who are supporting the willy-nilly dumping of migrants.
Lynnette:
“ Meanwhile, back at the ranch, it seems that the community on Martha's Vineyard stepped up in a major way to donate supplies to the migrants that were dumped there by DeSantis. Kudos to those who really have tried to help those people. That pretty much leaves out people like DeSantis and Abbott and all of those who are supporting the willy-nilly dumping of migrants.”
They “dumped” 50 migrants there and it was a big thing in that 90% white and 100% liberal area. So let’s go ahead and dump 500 or 5000 more immigrants there. They are our “greatest strength” after all so Martha’s Vineyard will surely be enriched and sthrengthened the more there come. That’s what they are claiming for the rest of the USA.
[Unkown}: So let’s go ahead and dump 500 or 5000 more immigrants there.
I realize that the border states have problems with illegal immigration. But I don't think that treating people like so much baggage is the right solution. Just like I didn't think that building a wall would work either.
The people who are reaching our borders deserve to be heard on a case by case basis. If part of the solution is hiring more people to process those cases then that is what should be done. But keep in mind that many sectors of the US economy are desperately short of workers. Rather ironic, don't you think? In fact Minnesota has been experiencing that worker shortage as well. Our unemployment rate has currently ticked up a little to 1.9%. We could use more people who are willing and able to work. There should be a process in place to accept people who want to work. Unlike Lee I have no issue with some of those people coming here.
I suspect that as our population ages out of the work force we will need immigration to make up the shortage.
Additionally, Modi of India has now chosen to speak poorly of Putin's War against Ukraine.
I found Modi's words particularly interesting. He said this is not an era for war. Perhaps he understands that the world has finite resources and to expend them needlessly in violence and destruction of existing infrastructure is a huge waste when what we should be focused on is the ravages of climate change.
I've been wondering about the possibility that the Commonwealth of Massachusetts might sue DeSantis...
By his actions DeSantis has shown he does not have the maturity to hold higher office and probably should not be in his current position. I don't know if it is possible to sue a sitting Governor, but it should be considered. One thing I have in common with Donald Trump, resorting to legal recourse when possible.
"Perhaps he understands that the world has finite resources…"
Modi's just another autocrat, probably a fascist although I haven't examined his socio/economic political platform close enough to be certain of that--maybe he's some other form of autocrat.
For certain he's a nationalist/racist type who'd fit right in at dinner party with Putin and Trump and Xi. That much I'm sure of.
If Putin wasn't so damn obviously losing a war the Russians should be winning then Modi'd still be enthusiastically supporting Putin, but he's lookin' to not get his own fortunes tied too close to a loser, lest he get identified as also a loser and thus encourage a rebellion at home. (He will, nevertheless, keep financing Putin's war--taking all the advantage he can get from supporting Putin in fact while denouncing him rhetorically. And he probably does know the world has finite resources, but he don't give a damn about that; he cares instead about his own grip on power. But, it does make a convenient peg on which to hang his rhetorical denunciation of Putin. Modi doesn't believe in what he's saying; neither does Putin fall for it; nor do I.)
"Unlike Lee I have no issue with some of those people coming here."
I think you have misstated the core of our disagreement on immigration. (We certainly do disagree some on that, so the fact that we disagree ya got right.)
But:
"The people who are reaching our borders deserve to be heard
on a case by case basis."
I'm all in favor of us deciding who should be allowed to come here on a case by case basis. That's one of my central concepts on the subject of immigration. We should choose whom we allow to join up on a case by case basis. Notwithstanding that our differences do exist--that's not one of them.
A firefight broke out inside Kherson overnight and stretching into the morning. Ukrainian sources are telling it to be a factional fight among the Russian forces in Kherson. The Ukrainians claim the Russian forces have begun fighting amongst themselves over the divvy of the 'loot' to be taken out of Kherson when they flee. NYT
(The Ukrainian forces continue to assault Russian positions in and around Kherson, but from a distance--they haven't tried to enter the city in force yet.)
The Ukrainians have unleashed an artillery barrage against targets inside Russia. WaPo Supposedly they're using older Soviet-era weapons that they had on hand when the Russians attacked back on 24 February, so's not to break their promise that they'd not use American supplied weapons to attack inside Russia proper (excluding Crimea which both the Ukrainians and American government counts as Ukrainian territory).
If Putin wasn't so damn obviously losing a war the Russians should be winning then Modi'd still be enthusiastically supporting Putin, but he's lookin' to not get his own fortunes tied too close to a loser, lest he get identified as also a loser and thus encourage a rebellion at home.
You are probably right in your take on this. Sometimes I tend to look at things through rose colored glasses. But, I will say this, Modi should be looking closely at what has been happening recently in Pakistan. Climate change will affect everybody, and if he does want to stay in power he may want to take note of that. There is more than one reason for rebellion.
The Ukrainians claim the Russian forces have begun fighting amongst themselves over the divvy of the 'loot' to be taken out of Kherson when they flee.
I suspect they would know.
The Ukrainians have unleashed an artillery barrage against targets inside Russia.
The Russians pulled back into Russia north of Kharkiv. From there they have been lobbing fire at Ukraine. The Ukrainians are well within their right to fire back. At least in my opinion. (I actually ran across this in a comments section recently. There was a fellow fighting in that region who was asked this very question about whether or not they were firing back at the Russians in Russia. His answer was a short "yes".)
I understand Biden's reluctance to widen the war, but it is also necessary to fight back when attacked. If Ukraine limits its strikes to military targets that are firing at them I think it just.
This leads me to a question for you...do you think the US should send ATACMS to Ukraine?
"…do you think the US should send ATACMS to Ukraine?"
I have to admit to having reservations about that, but I eventually come down on the side of: "Yes".
I think I would be "preparing the battlefield" on that one by demanding, publicly, repeatedly, and loudly that Russia's military forces (and its allied Ukrainian "republics") immediately cease using long and intermediate range rockets and missiles.
And I mean every damn time time they fire up a cruise missile we should repeat the demand, in public, loudly, along with a warning that this cannot go on forever--we will eventually have to allow the Ukrainians use of the same weaponry the Russians are using. Every time a Russian plane goes up and fires 'hypersonic' missile from Russian or Belarusian territory we should repeat the demand, loudly, with the warning. That is, unless they come to their senses and quit using long and intermediate range weapons.
They will not quit, of course. Then we finally give the longer range rockets to the Ukrainians--after repeated abuses of their advantages by the Russians and many warnings over time against those abuses.
The Russians have fielded their new, Iranian made, kamikaze drones. NYT There have been reports that the Russians have been unimpressed with the overall quality of the drones supplied by the Iranians, but it's looking like the ones that do work work all too well for the Ukrainians' pleasure. They're saying these things are going to be a problem for them unless they can figure out a defense against them.
I have to admit to having reservations about that, but I eventually come down on the side of: "Yes".
Unless Russia decides to see reason and stop attacking Ukraine from their own territory, it would be the only way to, somewhat, level the battlefield. Your idea of warnings is good.
It sounds like Ukraine is in control of both sides of the Oskil river and is close to, if they haven't already, taking Lyman.
"It sounds like Ukraine is in control of both sides of the Oskil river…"
Depends on where on the river you're talking about. The Ukrainians control both sides in some stretches of the river (in the north, nearest Kharkiv I think), but not along the entire length I don't think. (But, once you're across, you're across and can run up and down the far bank. They very well may control both sides outright in very short order.)
"Ukrainian forces appear to be expanding positions east of the Oskil
River and north of the Siverskyi Donets River that could allow them to
envelop Russian troops holding around Lyman. Further Ukrainian
advances east along the north bank of the Siverskyi Donets River could
make Russian positions around Lyman untenable and open the
approaches to Lysychansk and ultimately Severodonetsk. The Russian
defenders in Lyman still appear to consist in large part of BARS (Russian
Combat Army Reserve) reservists and the remnants of units badly
damaged in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensive, and the Russians do
not appear to be directing reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater
to these areas."
UnderstandingWar
"Your idea of warnings is good."
The Putin will not, of course, be deterred by any 'warnings'. The point is not to change the Russians war efforts, but to 'normalize' the idea that we are going to give the Ukrainians weaponry comparable to what the Russians are already using. We need to get the world used to the idea; let them hear it again and again until it doesn't come as a shock, but is greeted with a shrug and acceptance that it was bound to happen eventually.
For that we need to make noise about it public for long enough for idea to become accepted as 'normal'.
There is word that Russia has been moving S-300 surface to air missile systems from the border with Finland to the border with Ukraine. These systems can be used for surface to surface attack as well.
The point is not to change the Russians war efforts, but to 'normalize' the idea that we are going to give the Ukrainians weaponry comparable to what the Russians are already using.
Understood.
The Russians are denying any war crimes in Izyum, just like they did in Bucha.
The Ukrainians are saying the the Russian prisoners turned temporary soldiers are now appearing on the front lines around the town of Bakhmut, which is a coveted target of the Russians. They have their "Wagner" group leading the way there. There will be war crimes. With the Wagner group there always are, and that's before they stooped to raiding Russian prisons for cannon fodder.
Surface to air missiles can be used surface to surface, but the warheads are almost too small for them to be any use against hard military targets. 'Bout the only thing they're good for on the ground is terrorizing civilians.
'Bout the only thing they're good for on the ground is terrorizing civilians.
Since that seems to be the Russian MO that would explain the move.
It sounds like the fighting in Luhansk is proving tougher than in the Kharkiv region. I don't know if that is because there are better trained Russian soldiers in that area or if someone put the fear of God into them to push them to fight harder.
They have their "Wagner" group leading the way there.
I heard they were in Bucha too.
"It sounds like the fighting in Luhansk is proving tougher
than in the Kharkiv region."
"Luhansk People's Republic" declared its independence in the spring of 2014. They've been digging into defensive positions since that date. They've got much better defensive positions after eight years preparation.
The Ukrainians are still fighting to get into Lyman. The Russians are still holding on there.
In what might be considered a polite rebuke to Germany, the Biden administration has let it be known that they are giving serious consideration to providing NATO standard 'main battle tanks' to Ukraine. (Exactly whose tanks they're talking 'bout ain't been made clear, but they're probably not suggesting the Ukrainians start out on the American-made Abrams. Those things are fuel hogs, even when compared to other tanks of similar size and armament.)
It sounds like Russia has found an answer, in their minds, for Ukraine's counteroffensive. They are setting up referendums in the occupied territories on whether or not to join the Russian Federation.
They will hold referendums, which will of course call for joining Russia, and then that will be accepted by Russia making the occupied territories part of Russia. So any attack on those territories will be an attack on Russia, in Putin's mind. So will the West then continue to support Ukraine?
My guess is that the West will not recognize those referendums as legitimate and in their minds the occupied territories will still be part of Ukraine and therefore still fair game.
We shall see.
The Ukrainians are still fighting to get into Lyman. The Russians are still holding on there.
Yes. I think the Ukrainians are trying to avoid street by street fighting if they can. They will try to encircle and cut off Russian forces from supplies and force them to surrender or flee, if possible. I heard somewhere that there are more private contractors near Lyman and also in the Bakhmut area.
Ukraine is looking for bargaining chips to get its people back who were taken into Russia. If I were a Russian soldier in Ukraine with winter coming I would think about Ukraine's offer of a warm bed.
"They will try to encircle and cut off Russian forces from supplies and
force them to surrender or flee…"
I got the same sort of notion. I read that the Ukrainians had Lyman contained from three sides and it occurred to me that the last side open was probably to give the Russians an avenue of escape.
But, so far the Russians ain't showin' sign of leavin'.
"It sounds like Russia has found an answer, in their minds, for Ukraine's
counteroffensive."
At first I though it was probably the result of the local Russian puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk panicking at the thought the Russians might abandon them to their fate. Later I realized that Kherson was in on it as well, and the Russians were behind it.
I figure now that it's supposed to be a signal from Putin that he isn't deterred by the recent Ukrainian battlefield successes. He's still figuring to wear them down with artillery and rockets, eventually anyway, and he's willing to kill lots of Russian soldiers in the process, along with lots of Ukrainians. The thing he's not seeming to understand is that he's got to come up with willing Russian soldiers, and that's maybe gonna get harder to do as casualties mount up.
The thing he's not seeming to understand is that he's got to come up with willing Russian soldiers, and that's maybe gonna get harder to do as casualties mount up.
So far I think Ukraine has been concentrating a lot of fire on command centers and ammo depots. I wonder what happens when those targets are eliminated?
I guess if I were Russian soldiers I wouldn't want to concentrate forces anywhere.
From CNN's website:
Russian parliament amends law on military service, state media reports
From CNN's Anna Chernova
Russia’s lower house of parliament, the State Duma, made amendments to the law on military service on Tuesday, toughening the punishment for violation of military service duties — such as desertion and evasion from service — according to state news agency TASS.
The bill sets a jail term of up to 15 years for resistance related to military service or coercion to violate an official military order, involving violence or the threat of its use, during the period of mobilization or martial law.
Separately, State Duma deputies and senators have prepared amendments to the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, proposing to introduce liability of up to five years of jail time for the destruction or negligent damage of weapons and military equipment during wartime, state news agency RIA Novosti reported.
The deputies have also introduced concepts of "mobilization," "martial law," "wartime," and "armed conflict" into the Criminal Code of Russia, which will now be regarded as aggravating factors in criminal sentencing.
Remember: Politicians and political commentators in Russia have started debating mobilization, even as the Kremlin denied any discussions about a nationwide mobilization of troops. It could mean extending conscription for soldiers currently in the armed forces, calling on reservists or bringing in men of fighting age who have had military training.
The measures in the State Duma came before the referendum announcements in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine on Tuesday.
"Partial" mobilization meaning those areas of Russia that do not contain the elite, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg. It will be those in the outlying areas who are forced to pay the price for Putin's war.
I am hearing that those "Z" symbols that you saw everywhere in Russia are lately not quite so ubiquitous. Don't know why.
Airline tickets out of Russia sold out
Flights to countries that still allow Russians to enter without a visa, including Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, and Serbia, appear to be in high demand.
Russian state-owned airline Aeroflot has no more flights to Istanbul, Turkey from Moscow for the next three days, according to its website.
"'Partial' mobilization meaning those areas of Russia that do
not contain the elite…"
It actually means Putin will be calling the military reserves to active duty (Russia maintains a 'reserve' claim on soldiers for a period after their active duty ends--we do the same. And there are also 'reserve' units that're made up of people who've never been in the regular military--much like our National Guard.). He will not be drafting fresh 19 year olds though--not yet.
There have been protests across Russia and arrests. There were only a few dozen at the protests, though. Not massive.
Some foreign fighters in Ukraine have been freed in a prisoner swap. It included 5 Brits and 2 Americans.
Putin doubles down on stupid.
More than 1,300 people were detained across Russia on Wednesday for participating in nationwide anti-war protests -- with some directly conscripted into the military, according to a monitoring group, after leader Vladimir Putin announced a "partial mobilization" of citizens for his faltering invasion of Ukraine.
Sure, that's exactly what you want in your military someone who is anti-war. I'm sure they will fight very hard for you.
Also, it looks like the mobilization may not be as limited as we were at first led to believe.
Putin's decree appears to allow for wider mobilization than he suggested in his speech.
The first paragraph talks about a "partial mobilization," but it does not define those eligible as narrowly as Russia's leader did in his address. Instead, it says that the only people to which it does not apply are those who are ineligible because of age, sickness, or imprisonment.
Huh, not quite sure why "imprisonment" was listed as a reason for not serving in the military, because they already are using former prisoners in Ukraine.
"Russian President Vladimir Putin is himself giving directions directly to
generals in the field…"
CNN
That seldom works out well.
"And while Russia flails on the battlefield, officials in Moscow have
scrambled to assign blame for Russia’s abrupt turn in fortunes, a senior
NATO official said.
"'Kremlin officials and state media pundits have been feverishly
discussing the reasons for the failure in Kharkiv and in typical fashion,
the Kremlin seems to be attempting to deflect the blame away from
Putin and onto the Russian military.'"
Ibid.
And that won't make it better.
"…someone who is anti-war. I'm sure they will fight very hard
for you."
They might also develop into a significant influence on other soldiers, especially draftees.
And that won't make it better.
Nope, pissing off your Generals, those who are left, may not be the wisest thing.
I was listening to one YouTuber last night and he was livid about the "partial" mobilization. He isn't in Russia currently. He left early on. But he is worried about his friends.
Another YouTuber was attacked during a livestream around about the time of the protests. Somebody didn't like the fact he wasn't speaking Russian. He wasn't hurt, just shaken up.
"As women hugged their husbands and young men boarded
buses to leave for 15 days of training before potentially being
deployed to Russia’s stumbling war effort in Ukraine, there
were signs of mounting public anger."
WashingtonPost
Fifteen days of training? Jeez!
Lynnette:
“ "Partial" mobilization meaning those areas of Russia that do not contain the elite, such as Moscow and St. Petersburg. It will be those in the outlying areas who are forced to pay the price for Putin's war.”
They’re also forcibly conscripting anti war demonstrators from the elite areas. Probably to serve two purposes: get them pesky protesters out of the way and discourage further protests.
What good they will do on the front though is debatable. I tend to think they’ll actually lower any morale that might be left among the other conscripts.
This war has no analogy to past wars when Russians rallied en masse because their Motherland was actually under attack. Putin tries to portray this war as such but the people ain’t buying it.
I can’t see any favorable outcome for Russia in this war, which is a good thing. The only thing I hope for now is a closure w as little damage as possible, which seems like a fools hope tbh.
(So are their wives and families.)
It sounds like most of those out protesting were women.
The other consequence of calling up so many people is the impact on Russia's economy. When workers go missing things don't get done. Perhaps this has been in the works for some time, considering Russia was trying to import workers from North Korea.
I found it curious that North Korea was denying supplying weapons and ammo to Russia.
Related: Reports are coming in about the Russians using their S-300 surface-to-air missiles against 'soft' civilian targets like theaters, apartment buildings, and such. The Russians are also using the Iranian kamikaze drones against similar targets.
As someone said, revenge attacks.
(I strongly suspect the final tally to be publicized has already been decided.)
Yup, no matter how many people refuse to answer the door.
Was he using Ukrainian or English?
English
Fifteen days of training? Jeez!
I'll say!
I hope Ukraine has geared up their printing presses to create more flyers to drop over Russian forces with instructions on how to surrender.
[Marcus]: I can’t see any favorable outcome for Russia in this war, which is a good thing.
Putin's legacy will not be quite what he was planning. But the whole world loses. This is a huge set back to our efforts to fight climate change as well, which will impact everyone.
I think they should allow the migrants who are seeking asylum here in the US to work while they wait for their cases to be heard.
And there should be coordination between the southern states who want to move them out and the states they are going to.
There are other states that are desperate for workers. New York, DC and the city of Chicago should not be the only recipients of migrants.
I mean really! Minnesota has been a staunch Democratic state for years and they are totally bypassing us!
#1. The Chinese Foreign Minister has met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister at the United Nations. Got their picture taken shakin' hands and makin' nice. Reuters (Neither Xi nor Zelinskyy went to New York for the opening of the U.N. This is what happens when the would-be international bully and state terrorist gets their ass kicked by the little guy they thought they were gonna pick on with impunity.)
#2. Germany has announced that they will accept Russian spies and provocateurs into the common E.U. Schnierder Zone, allowing them to get around the blockaded borders being implemented by the countries bordering Russia. Because, it's Germany and that's what they do. dw.com
I think I kinda like the attitude of Lithuania’s foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis. Time to quit fretting 'bout "escalation" of the Russian War Against Ukraine, and just kick some Russian asses. Get to doing it and get it over with all the sooner. NYT (Germany politicians would not approve.)
Lynnette: “ Reports are coming in about the Russians using their S-300 surface-to-air missiles against 'soft' civilian targets like theaters, apartment buildings, and such. The Russians are also using the Iranian kamikaze drones against similar targets.
As someone said, revenge attacks. ”
Not merely revenge attacks. It shows that Russia is running low on surface to surface missiles, like their Caliber ones. When they are wasting SAM:s at ground targets it shows they are scraping at the bottom of the barrel.
Interesting video here. It seems that perhaps the Ukrainians have made a kamikaze boat of their own. This one washed up on shore in Sevastopol, Crimea.
#2. Germany has announced that they will accept Russian spies and provocateurs into the common E.U. Schnierder Zone, allowing them to get around the blockaded borders being implemented by the countries bordering Russia. Because, it's Germany and that's what they do. dw.com
I have heard they have also voted against sending tanks to Ukraine.
Not merely revenge attacks. It shows that Russia is running low on surface to surface missiles, like their Caliber ones. When they are wasting SAM:s at ground targets it shows they are scraping at the bottom of the barrel.
That being the case one would think anyone who worked in a Russian armament factory would be exempt from being "mobilized". I am hearing that for at least one factory that is not the case and the workers who have gotten their call up notice are not happy. But then neither are many of the others who are sleeping on floors and drowning their sorrow in vodka.
Bottom of the barrel is right!
"WASHINGTON — President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has
thrust himself more directly into strategic planning for the war
in Ukraine in recent weeks, American officials said, including
rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that
they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of
Kherson.
"A withdrawal from Kherson would allow the Russian military
to pull back across the Dnipro River in an orderly way,
preserving its equipment and saving the lives of soldiers.
But such a retreat would be another humiliating public
acknowledgment of Mr. Putin’s failure in the war….
***
"But American officials briefed on highly sensitive intelligence
said that behind the scenes Mr. Putin is taking on an even
deeper role in the war, including telling commanders that
strategic decisions in the field are his to make."
NYT
I am reminded of Hitler's decision in WWII to displace his military Chief of Staff and appoint himself as CinC of the Germany Army, and his subsequent refusal to allow Gen. Paulus (the German commander in the field) to withdraw his army from Stalingrad when they still had a chance.
It ended with a catastrophic German loss in Stalingrad, surrender of the entire German 6th Army (or the remnants thereof), and the complete collapse of Hitler's "Eastern Front".
May Putin fair as well!
"This is a huge set back to our efforts to fight climate change…"
Short term, that's obviously true. Longer term, I'm not so sure. No telling how long it would have taken Europe to wean itself off of fossil fuel dependence as long as Russia was offering easy supply. Now the Europeans gotta count the cost of Russia being an undependable, even a predatory, supplier.
They tried to ignore that before--tried hard enough they managed to ignore it fairly successfully. Can't do that anymore.
Maybe they'll now go green sooner than they would have otherwise.
________________________________
"…kamikaze boat…"
The Ukrainians are adaptive.
________________________________
"I have heard they have also voted against sending tanks to Ukraine."
What happened was: The Germans promised to send some of their "Leopard" tanks (quite capable tanks, and not near the fuel hogs that the American M1 "Abrams" tanks happen to be). And then they reneged on the promise. They have excuses, but not good ones. It would have been better if they'd never made the promise, but they did, and then they reneged. And the Ukrainians noticed, and remember.
The Germans seem to be frightened by the idea that the Russians may one future day look upon them as leaders of the resistance. The Ukrainians have noticed that too.
________________________________
There seems to be some fairly widespread speculation that Russia will try to conscript Ukrainians into the Russian army once their areas have been have been annexed by Russia.
I'm not sure there'll be much of that happening.
Giving weapons to pissed off Ukrainians? Probably a bad idea.
First step; baby step. A 'commission' set up by the United Nations (answering to the U.N. Human Rights Council, which was itself set up by resolution of the General Assembly) has reported that it has found that war crimes have been committed in the Russian War Against Ukraine. They have not yet declared the perpetration of 'Crimes Against Humanity', but it's early yet.
Now they're gonna 'expand' their inquiry to include investigation of the Russian 'filtration' system and the absconding into Russia of hundreds of thousands, perhaps millions, of Ukrainians, including children.
It's a start.
Tweet from Ukranian State media:
“ “The 155-mm FH77 BW L52 “Archer” multi-purpose self-propelled artillery mounts delivered to Ukraine from Sweden are already used at the front. The effectiveness of such weapons is demonstrated in this video.””
The video is not from Ukraine but a demonstration video from YouTube. Probably the best Swedish weapon system we could send in this type of conflict. It’s quite badass and even the US are considering purchasing it for their Stryker brigades, it has been lent to the US for evaluation already. But there’s no better evaluation than sending it into hot action!
Here’s a vid:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DZlxDFRQ0KQ&t=109s
Should that thing be considered competition for the M777 howitzer or the HIMARS missile system?
Or might it be considered an intermediate step between the two?
American officials said, including
rejecting requests from his commanders on the ground that
they be allowed to retreat from the vital southern city of
Kherson.
Hmmm...maybe the rumor I heard about the Russian order to shoot anyone who crosses the river south of Kherson was correct.
The Germans seem to be frightened by the idea that the Russians may one future day look upon them as leaders of the resistance. The Ukrainians have noticed that too.
They should be careful or that will be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Now is the time to make sure the Russians do not have the capability to continue on with this attack in Europe.
Giving weapons to pissed off Ukrainians? Probably a bad idea.
Depends on how you look at it. Kind of like the drafting of protesters.
Others have noticed the drawbacks for Russia in doing this. Those others being Russian.
Morale is already bad in the Russian ranks in Ukraine.
It's a start.
They are being pretty proactive in combing the reacquired territories for war crimes. Izyum being just the latest.
[Marcus}: The effectiveness of such weapons is demonstrated in this video.”
Nice and quick. An advantage when you are in a hurry.
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