Russia decided to conduct referendums in the occupied territories of Ukraine, asking if they want to become part of Russia. Like so many people I suspect that the outcome has been preordained. But if one looks a little closer it is possible to see the real verdict.
In Ukraine:
But there is another kind of referendum going on, this one in Russia itself. This fellow gives a nice overview of what is actually happening and an honest and blunt reaction.
In Russia:
This one's for you Vlad:
163 comments:
NATO members will hold "an extraordinary meeting" in Brussels on Tuesday to discuss (and, one hopes, to coördinate) ramping up weapons production to be able to meet the need in the Ukraine.
A meeting of the 50 member ad-hoc 'Ukraine Defense Contact Group' will follow on Wednesday.
♫♪ One of these days… ♫♪
Sergei Shoigu has a new 'Deputy Minister of Defense'. NYT I wonder if he had any say in that decision?
In a move of questionable wisdom, Russian occupying authorities in Kherson and Zaporizka Oblasts have ordered Ukrainian men of "military age" (18 to 35) to report for conscription and have begun "rounding up" those who aren't complying with that order to report. NYT
Huh, took me awhile, but disabling Javascript for the article's page does work.
The Ukrainian intelligence service said last week that Ukrainian recruits sent by Russia to fight in Kherson have “refused to take part in combat missions.” Citing intercepted communications and interviews with relatives, the agency said that Russian commanders had threatened to send conscripts “to the front line without weapons if they refuse to follow orders.”
Hard choice, take the weapon and shoot the commander or refuse to fight and not be given a weapon and get shot at the front.
Hmmm...it looks like the Shoigu article is the same as the second link about conscription.
The former Deputy Minister of Defense wasn't standing by a window, was he?
Zelenskyy is offering asylum to any Russian soldier who lays down their arms.
It also sounded like Germany was also offering asylum to Russians seeking escape from the war in Ukraine. Kind of harder to get there, though.
"Huh, took me awhile, but disabling Javascript…"
I've added an extension that does it with one click. (Probably not an option on your computer at work.)
I was considering tying in the demonstrations in Iran with the Russians fleeing their own homeland, but I'm not sure if that has legs. In the past Iranian demonstrations have died out after a short period.
I will say, though, that the marches in Iran do out number those in Russia by a wide margin.
The woman who was killed was actually visiting relatives in Iran. She was Kurdish.
"It also sounded like Germany was also offering asylum…"
I think Germany is offering asylum to any Russian who shows up and asks, even if they've been turned down previously by other members of the common "Schnierder Zone".
Corrected link re: New Deputy Minister of Defense The outgoing Deputy Minister is 'going to a new job' not specified.
Hmmmm… link doesn't work right with the java disabled, goes to the top article instead.
Well, scroll down a ways. The squib about the shake-up is lower down.
Okay, link works on Firefox with java disabled, but not on Google Chrome browser (or related Opera browser).
NewYorkTimes is not letting Germany's Prime Minister, Olaf Scholz, off easy on his apparent fear of 'escalation' against Russia. (Better to allow Putin to do all the escalating.)
(You won't have to scroll down for this one--kinda long though.)
Corrected link re: New Deputy Minister of Defense
That guy looks like a ghost deer staring at headlights. Seriously creepy.
I was able to get in to that article without having to do anything extra. I don't know if the website name I have set up to disable Java will work for any article on their website? I guess I'll see.
(You won't have to scroll down for this one--kinda long though.)
Got into that one just fine too. Anyway, I don't know what Scholz is so afraid of. I don't think tanks would be an escalation. They already have donated tanks from the Russians.
The voting on annexation in the occupied Ukrainian territory ends Tuesday. The Russian Duma will probably put a bill on the floor Wednesday and then they'll probably vote to annex the four Ukrainian oblasts on Thursday (maybe Friday at the latest).
Quaere then: Will military activity in Ukraine slow down a little, everybody take a breath for a minute and ready for the next moves? Or might it take a different turn, one side or the other try to make a military statement before the weather locks them into place?
________________________________
The new Deputy Minister does look a bit strange. Personally, I was wondering how he got the sleeves of that shirt shrunk down so tight on his narrow, stick-figure biceps.
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"Anyway, I don't know what Scholz is so afraid of."
He's afraid that the Russians will remember Germany's role in supporting Ukraine after the current crisis is settled and Putin is gone, and that it'll detrimentally effect Germany's unofficial 'most favored nation' status when they start doing above-the-table business again with the post-war Russia. (Plus, ex-Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder has made himself a multi-millionaire working for Russian interests in western Europe--current direct income from Russian sources estimated to be around $9 million/year, plus there's all the ancillary income streams that go with it. Scholz may be afraid he'll lose out on that fairly lucrative gig.)
Been a school shooting in far eastern Russia. No clue whether it's related to the 'partial mobilization' or the War Against Ukraine in any other manner. Maybe it's just a school shooting.
I don't know about a school shooting, but there was a shooting at a mobilization center in the Russian city of Ust-Ilimsk in the Irkutsk region of Siberia. One Russian official was wounded. They arrested a 25 year old man. That seems a bad way to go about protesting. Maybe it was actually a personal grudge.
Well Edward Snowden got his wish, he is now a Russian citizen. Couldn't have happened to a more deserving guy.
Gerhard Schröder has made himself a multi-millionaire working for Russian interests in western Europe--current direct income from Russian sources estimated to be around $9 million/year, plus there's all the ancillary income streams that go with it.
Oh, the gig Trump was angling for.
Quaere then: Will military activity in Ukraine slow down a little, everybody take a breath for a minute and ready for the next moves? Or might it take a different turn, one side or the other try to make a military statement before the weather locks them into place?
My guess would be the second.
They just had the Russian school shooting on the news. 17 were killed and 24 wounded. It was a 35 year old man who graduated from that school. He had been in a psychiatric hospital, supposedly. Although considering what he did, I believe that.
My cousin lives in Palm Harbor, Fl. She looks like she is right in the crosshairs of Ian.
The shooter in that school shooting killed himself.
I got a friend retired to Florida; lives on a 40 foot boat anchored in the harbor at Clearwater, Florida; eight miles from Palm Harbor.
School shooter seems to be the standard nut-job school shooter; not politically motivated so much as driven by his own personal demons.
"My guess would be the second."
Indications are, you are correct. Zelenskyy is said to have called a meeting with his military people yesterday to discuss "further de-occupation" of Ukrainian territory. He's not lookin' to rest on a little success it seems. He may fear the Ukrainian initiative is slipping away from them as the Russians process their last set of mistakes.
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I've said before that the Russians are currently on 'Plan C' for their War Against Ukraine, plans "A" and "B" having already failed spectacularly. 'Plan C' is the grinding war of attrition that the Russian generals settled on (with Putin's participation and consent) once Putin allowed the military minds to again try to devise a military campaign. But, 'Plan C' is now failing as well. Better weaponry in the hands of the Ukrainians, along with the Ukrainians' native flexibility and initiative (and the enthusiasm of their fighters) had begun to inflict casualties and constraints on the "grind 'em down" plan that have pretty much doomed the Russians to losing over time.
So, now Putin's taken back control of the military campaign and is running things out of the Kremlin once again, and again not listening to his military men. And he seems to have a whole slew of fairly questionable ideas (like conscripting loyal Ukrainians into the Russian army and giving them guns, just for one example).
Perhaps he could be convinced to make them tank commanders instead? The Ukrainians want more tanks. Get the Germans off the hook maybe.
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We begin to see that Putin was entirely correct to fear the Russian response to an order for social mobilization for war.
I suspect that one limitation on Putin's warmaking capabilities in Ukraine might be the need to now devote energy and resources to suppression of the population back in Russia.
Russian officials, on the other hand, are predicting (hoping?) for an outburst of patriotic glee at the soon to be announced 'request' of the occupied territories to be annexed into Russia. They think (hope?) it might help with the current popular resistance to the Russian 'mobilization'.
If indeed Germany is accepting Russians who flee conscription then good. I heard Finland does not. I am not sure about Sweden and other European countries.
My opinion is to let them all in. Every single Russian who wants to avoid going to war that Europe can settle is one less Russian available for Putins disasterous war efforts. To bleed Russia of its able bodied men could actually prove to have a greater impact than the sanctions does.
"Able bodied men" in Russia putting up a resistance to conscription and to Putin (along with their families) will be a bigger problem for Putin than the guys who make it over the border. (We learned this in the Vietnam era when a lot of guys went to Canada and then quit making a fuss about the war.)
Russian troops are taking names of the men in the queues and handing out conscription letters at the border with Georgia today. That'll probably spread to other border crossings by tomorrow.
Three undersea leaks have suddenly developed in Nordstream 1 and 2. Swedish seismologists said they detected explosions in the area. One I could maybe see, but three? So, sabotage?
Looks like Ian may have shifted a bit to the south. Now it appears it might make landfall around Venus or Port Charlotte. If so it is pointed at a co-worker's vacation home.
Zelenskyy is said to have called a meeting with his military people yesterday to discuss "further de-occupation" of Ukrainian territory.
I suspect he wants to get as much done as possible before winter really sets in.
And he seems to have a whole slew of fairly questionable ideas...
Including ordering his military never to retreat or surrender. Personally if I were faced with those choices I would take Ukraine or Germany up on their offers of sanctuary.
I would never fight for someone like that.
I suspect that one limitation on Putin's warmaking capabilities in Ukraine might be the need to now devote energy and resources to suppression of the population back in Russia.
Yes. It really is never a better time for anyone in Russia who wants to be not in Russia to think about leaving.
A weaker Russia isn't just an advantage to the world. At least as long as their main goal is suppression of individual human rights.
My opinion is to let them all in.
Some countries worry about developing large Russian communities which might encourage an effort at annexation by Russia in the future. Understandable. On the other hand there may be some very talented Russians who would be an asset to any country.
Russian troops are taking names of the men in the queues and handing out conscription letters at the border with Georgia today. That'll probably spread to other border crossings by tomorrow.
I suppose it was inevitable, all of that escaping cannon fodder is painful to let go.
Illegal immigration, anyone? Russia has some pretty long borders.
Venus
No that's not right. I meant Venice.
The Russians are now saying the occupied Ukrainians have voted in favor of joining Russia by margins exceeding 97%. No effort at all to make it believable.
By the way… I've been thinking I should mention this for several days now.
Unlike President Biden, President Putin doesn't have sole control of the decision to launch a nuclear strike. (Or, so our intelligence services assure us--they've been sure of this for years now.) Biden has a nuclear 'football' from which he and he alone can launch a nuclear war. (Backup 'football' follows the Veep in case of…)
Putin has one of three equivalent devices spread among the Russian high chain-of-command. The Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, has another one. The third is in the hands of the Russian Chief of Staff (I don't have his name handy--ya'll can look it up if ya want).
It takes agreement of two out of the three to launch nukes.
(Just for whatever that's worth to ya.)
If I were your friend living on that boat in Florida I think I would evacuate, even if Ian has moved farther south. That thing is big.
(Just for whatever that's worth to ya.)
I think I had heard that somewhere. Possibly a good thing.
Just an aside, the US has told Americans in Russia to leave. They are concerned that those with dual citizenship may be drafted under Putin's mobilization. There apparently were some Americans arrested at the protests. They are also concerned with the fast shrinking options of getting out.
That brings me to Russians leaving Russia...did you see all of those trucks lined up waiting to leave? That's got to hurt the supply chain within Russia if those were used to deliver goods. Perhaps Putin will succeed where sanctions really haven't yet. That is, causing widespread pain in the Russian economy. That guy is tripling down on stupid.
The Russians are now saying the occupied Ukrainians have voted in favor of joining Russia by margins exceeding 97%. No effort at all to make it believable.
And warning the US that we are getting too involved in Ukraine. Apparently after Blinken said that Ukraine could use any weapons supplied by the
West to try to regain any of their territory that was acquired by Russia via any means.
I saw that about the warning to all Americans. They didn't mention the plight of the Brittney Griner, probably to not complicate her situtation, but they could have.
Those trucks were in the queue leaving Russia. They were not bringing supplies into Russia. Probably just regular traffic caught up in the backlog at the border, and wouldn't bother the Russian supply chain any unless the Russians are running low on over the road trucks.
________________________________
My friend in currently trout fishing about 800 miles northwest of her boat. She's got her hatches battened down and figures whatever comes next will ultimately fall on the accounts of the marina and the insurance company.
hey didn't mention the plight of the Brittney Griner...
Yes, her plight and that of Paul Whelan did come to mind.
Those trucks were in the queue leaving Russia.
Yes, I know. I don't know if they were regular routes and they were caught up in the exodus or if they were part of the exodus. If they are then that may have an impact on Russian the supply chain, if they are low on drivers and trucks.
But maybe I see that only from our point of view, as we are low on truck drivers here.
Your friend is smart. She got out when the getting was good.
Headline just popped up from the Washington Post. Reads: "U.S. to send more long-range rocket systems
I hit the link, but there's no article relevant to that headline--maybe it's going to appear soon. (That or they kill the headline pretty soon. Possible they mean that we're sending more HIMARS systems--but those are intermediate range at best, with the ammo we've been allowing.)
False alarm, yep, they meant more HIMARS systems--eighteen more in fact, which ain't nothin', especially when they finally get around to allowing Ukraine to use the MGM-140 missile on them (a/k/a "ATACMS")
(I'm not sure we have eighteen more HIMARS systems sitting around, now that I think about it--that may just be noise from the Biden administration.)
More data: Yeah, we do have eighteen HIMARS sitting around in available stocks, but they're not going to Ukraine. Instead the U.S. government has ordered new ones from the manufacturer--which means it'll be years before all eighteen are shipped--and no telling when the first ones get there.
I don't see this as a worthy response to Ukraine's current needs, but Biden's been dragging it from the beginning, so it's not surprising either.
They have been turning people back from leaving Russia at at least one airport in Moscow. Probably others as well.
"They have been turning people back from leaving Russia at at least
one airport in Moscow."
Can't have the public watching that show in Moscow itself.
________________________________
"… and then they'll probably vote to annex the four Ukrainian oblasts on
Thursday (maybe Friday at the latest)."
Lee C. @ Mon Sept 26, 06:37 am ↑↑
"Eligible citizens who are registered with the military are ‛forbidden to
leave … without the permission of the military commissariats,’ said
speaker of the state Duma Vyacheslav Volodin on Telegram…"
It is not clear that the speaker of the Russian state Duma has the authority to forbid anything, much less the power.
Lee:
“ "Able bodied men" in Russia putting up a resistance to conscription and to Putin (along with their families) will be a bigger problem for Putin than the guys who make it over the border. (We learned this in the Vietnam era when a lot of guys went to Canada and then quit making a fuss about the war.)”
You might well be correct there. Also I read about speculations the Russians could infest Europe with saboteurs posing as anti war refugees. So my earlier post where I recommended “letting them all in” might have been naive. Possibly it’s better to completely shut the doors so as to keep saboteurs out and keep disgruntled Russians in Russia.
But maybe it doesn’t have to be an either/or situation and we could facilitate those who are not likely saboteurs and also are not likely to drive any change inside Russia? I don’t know, I’m so sick of this insane war.
We had a long pandemic and even if Sweden had fewer harsh restrictions than most it was still depressing and painful even here. And just when it was getting back to almost normal this fucking asshole in the kremlin decided to continue to fuck the world up with this war shit. I am really fed up with wars and disasters by now. And now the economy looks likely to tank so we’ll get a depression on top of it all. It’s just so depressing.
Btw: who did y’all think did the Northstream bombings?
"…who did y’all think did the Northstream bombings?"
I'm gonna havta go with Putin as the most likely suspect there. The evidence is so far insufficient to convict, but he's gotta be the number one suspect.
Putin is holding a music concert in Moscow on Friday, during which (or after which--they ain't exactly been clear on that) he will give a "voluminous" speech about the wonderfulness of Russia's takeover of the southeast quadrant of Ukraine--and the wonderfulness of Putin as well, no doubt.
I'm guessing the music concert is to encourage a the presence of a crowd that Putin would not be able to draw on his own.
Meantime, Ukrainian forces have just damn near encircled Lyman, after what's proved to be a serious contest for control of the rail hub to the eastern Luhansk oblast. They might even be able to take the place while Putin's on the podium announcing it's now Russian territory.
It’s just so depressing.
It is. Putin has a lot to answer for.
Btw: who did y’all think did the Northstream bombings?
I would agree with Lee. Putin, or his Navy actually, had opportunity and motive. There were Russian naval ships seen in the area around the time of the explosions.
Meantime, Ukrainian forces have just damn near encircled Lyman, after what's proved to be a serious contest for control of the rail hub to the eastern Luhansk oblast.
They would like to capture some more Russians, I think, as well as cut the supply lines for Russia. Although I am not sure if it is still regular Russian army in Lyman. It might be separatist militia.
"Although I am not sure if it is still regular Russian army in
Lyman."
Last I heard Lyman was full of Wagner mercs and their convict auxiliary.
Correction on that; Wagner was assaulting Bakhmut:
"Unlike in Lyman, where there is a mix of Russian reservists, separatists
and regular army forces, the area around Bakhmut is largely controlled
by the Wagner Group, an infamous paramilitary force that reports directly
to the Kremlin.
"Ukrainian soldiers near the front say that Wagner’s ranks are bolstered
by prison inmates from the separatist regions who were drafted into
service. One Ukrainian soldier, who spoke on the condition of anonymity
for security reasons, said Wagner’s forces attack only so far before
sending inmates with little support forward to face Ukrainian guns like
‛cannon fodder.’"
NYT
I have heard that there are heavy losses in the Bakhmut area on the Russian side.
Perhaps time to try to take out Wagner behind the front lines.
Depending on whom one believes, the town of Lyman has either been almost encircled by the Ukrainians, or it has been completely encircled and the supply routes cut off. If it's not cut off yet, that appears to be coming soon.
The "NordStream" pipelines that were sabotaged Monday were hit outside the territorial waters of both Sweden and Denmark, the closest European powers (although, I believe Norway is getting in on the investigation now as well). But, NATO stepped into the breach--NATO has announced that they are considering an appropriate (perhaps military) response:
“We, as allies, have committed to prepare for, deter and defend against
the coercive use of energy and other hybrid tactics by state and non-
state actors. Any deliberate attack against allies’ critical infrastructure
would be met with a united and determined response.”
NBCNews
There are several much more important pipelines in the same waters (not by magnitude, but since both North Streams were shut off the others are more important).
From Norway goes a gas pipeline (or several) that runs to the Netherlands, to Germany and recently an offshoot to Poland was completed. Those are important for the whole of Europe arguably. From Denmark goes a small and short pipeline to Sweden that is important only for south west Sweden.
If any of them blows up in the immediate future the culprit is pretty clear.
But I do agree that even though it might seem folly to blow up their own pipes Russia is the most likely culprit behind the pipeline bombings so far.
"…it might seem folly to blow up their own pipes…"
The pipelines and the gas they carry belong to Gazprom, the partly government owned fossil fuel corporation. I think it's four (4) Gazprom executives who've recently suicided from the tops of tall buildings in Moscow--after they were less than totally supportive of Putin's War Against Ukraine.
If he'll whack the CEO's and other top officials, he'll blow their assets to make the same point. (A lot of what Putin's doing these days is for domestic consumption; he's scrambling to deal with rising domestic resistance to what he thought was gonna be a four day walkover of a war.)
I just noticed that Putin delivered this morning's annexation speech from the safety of the "Georgievsky Hall in the Grand Kremlin Palace"; beamed it out to giant screens at the concert. Unlike his last public address on the subject of his War Against Ukraine, he did not appear in person on the concert stage. I'm guessing he wasn't gonna take the chance of getting booed this time.
The Washington Post is usually a credible source (they may get a little overboard with their political reporting at times, but their Ukrainian reporting has been good so far.)
"Ukrainian forces said they had surrounded Russian forces in the eastern
city of Lyman, pressing their counterattacks in a region that Moscow now
claims as its own. Ukrainian forces advanced on the key transport hub
overnight even as Russia put on a show of celebrating its annexation of
Ukrainian territory with a grand ceremony and a pop concert in Moscow."
WaPo
CNN is reporting that Russian forces have started withdrawing from Lyman. At first it appeared that they were not going to be allowed by their command to withdraw, but the news of their withdrawal comes from the Russian Ministry of Defense. Seems someone overruled Putin.
[Marcus]: There are several much more important pipelines in the same waters (not by magnitude, but since both North Streams were shut off the others are more important).
I suspect that the other pipelines will be safe. The Nordstream pipelines were Russian. Blowing them hurts future supply to Europe, which was already shutdown. Putin wants to make sure Europe feels the pain of being without energy supplies without poking NATO.
Of course, my guess could be wrong. You never know.
I'm guessing he wasn't gonna take the chance of getting booed this time.
Possibly. Of course there could be other reasons. An attack on a recruitment center official might have been rather disturbing.
I have been watching coverage of the aftermath of Hurricane Ian in Florida as well as the coverage of Ukraine. Strange how the scenery looks so similar. Destruction.
One gentleman in Fort Meyers, FL decided to ride out Ian on his boats. He has two, one of which was used as a floating hotel. He tied them together, each weighted about 50 tons I believe he said. He was doing all right in the beginning, using the engines to keep the boats in the slip. But in the end the storm surge was too much and both boats, still tied together, were lifted up and forced across the nearby parking lot. He said the ride was actually quite smooth.
I had some hope that perhaps the climate change deniers across the country might look at this storm and understand what is happening. But they interviewed another fellow who rode out the storm. He thought it would be the strongest storm he would ever see. I know his comment was to express how bad the storm was, but I think he may not understand that this storm may not be that unusual anymore.
My co-worker who has the vacation home in North Port did not have that much damage. But she will need a new roof. How soon that can happen is questionable. But she was relieved that there was no water damage.
"Seems someone overruled Putin."
My guess is that they got permission from Putin (perhaps only after hinting at resignations otherwise--that threat is about the only thing that ever seemed to work on Trump--other than stalling and waiting for him to forget and move on to something else).
Putin would have insisted on being able to blame somebody else--this gives him that opportunity. Resignations would have put the blame for the eventual withdrawal (or bloody massacre in the event he stood firm) directly on Putin. He's trying hard to avoid any of that happening.
I haven't heard anything about the 40 foot boat. I'm gonna wait awhile to ask, just in case it's a sore point. (She was far away herself, so I don't gotta worry 'bout that.)
Washington Post is reporting that not all the troops are withdrawing without a fight. Supposedly "some" Russian troops are still putting up heavy resistance while other outfits are withdrawing. The Ukrainians are said to be going right after the guys who think they want to fignt--no more waiting. This might be an effort to "take out [the] Wagner [group]" that you mentioned earlier, or, at least, to take out some of 'em.
WaPo link ↑↑
________________________________
Now that the Ukrainians have surrounded Lyman (and making the I think safe assumption that the Russians who fight are gonna get hurt bad and quick, and the rest of the Russians and rebel Ukrainian militias aren't gonna go 'Azovstal' on 'em), it's now time for Zelenskyy's guys to start on what comes next. I'm anticipating good things.
Probably in the south around either Kherson or Zaporizhzhia (either the town or more likely the power plant first); but, they could surprise us again.
________________________________
“…and we expect to have another announcement of immediate security
assistance to announce next week.”
Jake Tapper, U.S. National Security Advisor
"Immediate"--good thing, 'bout damn time.
Excerpt from CNN:
Meanwhile, pressure appears to be growing on Russian President Vladimir Putin to use nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of the Chechen republic, in an angry statement slamming Russian generals in the wake of the withdrawal from Lyman, said it was time for the Kremlin to make use of every weapon at his disposal.
“In my personal opinion we need to take more drastic measures, including declaring martial law in the border territories and using low-yield nuclear weapons,” Kadyrov said on his Telegram channel. “There is no need to make every decision with the Western American community in mind.”
The nuclear weapons are just an excuse. This guy is angling for a different job, Putin's.
The Ukrainians are said to be going right after the guys who think they want to fignt--no more waiting.
Why do I suspect that the Ukrainians relish a little fighting? They've got a lot of anger flowing. I don't blame them.
it's now time for Zelenskyy's guys to start on what comes next.
Lysychansk and Severodonesk seem to be nice and close.
They might be fine with letting the Russians stew a bit without supplies in Kherson with winter coming on.
Somebody in the Russian spy service (the 'FSB' successor to the old KGB of Soviet days) has leaked it out that Putin himself overruled their recommendations to not take that last prisoner swap which released Ukrainian members of the Azov Brigade (famous for its fierce defense at the steel plant in Mariupol) and in which the Russians gave up around four men for every prisoner they received back. (Putin did get a rogue Ukrainian politician who is said to have been a 'close friend' to Putin in the exchange.)
The FSB recommended against making that swap--Putin ordered it done anyway. And now somebody's leaked that data to the press.
Point being: Ain't everybody is willing to take the blame that Putin's trying to pass off to everybody else. We'd have to consider the leaking of this sort information to be evidence of a crack in Putin's support from the FSB.
Analysis from the Brits is that the Ukrainians have about completed the mop-up of whomever were those Russian holdouts still fighting in Lyman. Brits say they're 'bout all dead now. (Ukrainians say the same.) Brits said some of them died when they made a break for it along the only road they could still access. In any case, the mop-up is about over with few captives acquired.
"This guy is angling for a different job, Putin's."
Kadyrov is a Muslim. I don't think Orthodox Christian Russians are ready to accept a Muslim, and an ethnic "Caucasid" as their President for Life (not even a Slav, but rather an admixture of Caucasian, as in the Caucasian Mountains, and Turkish/Turkomen bloodlines).
My guess is he's first angling for Sergei Shoigu's job.
Maybe a military coup could come later, but I don't think the Orthodox Russians are ready for Kadyrov just yet.
"For now, Russian troops fleeing Lyman appear to be moving to
reinforce their lines 40 miles to the south around the city of Bakhmut.
That appears to be the only area along the extensive eastern front line
where Russian forces are on the offensive, led primarily by members of
the Wagner Group…."
NewYorkTimes
"For now, Russian troops fleeing Lyman appear to be moving to
reinforce their lines 40 miles to the south around the city of Bakhmut.
Putin needs a win.
It seems that the Russians fleeing Lyman may have left a few things behind...again. I wonder if Wagner has any spare tanks laying around?
Also, Ukraine seems to be making some headway down in the Kherson area.
Headline: "Lyman residents tell CNN that Russians left the city
in an orderly fashion"
"But locals offered another explanation: that Russian forces
had left the city on Friday in an orderly fashion.
"‛They got on their tanks, and drove out’, said Tanya, riding
her bicycle back to the bomb shelter, where she still spends
the nights with 15 others."
CNN
Still, there's not a lot of information coming out of Bakhmut. The Ukrainians are keeping the news out of there pretty much under wraps.
Word out of Moscow is that the 'exact borders' of the annexed Ukrainian territories are not now known but will have to be set later after 'consultation' with the denizens thereof. Moscow has declined to explain what form these 'consultations' would take or give any further information about their nature, structure, or duration, or whom would be included in the consult.
All seems a little ad-hoc to me.
"‛They got on their tanks, and drove out’, said Tanya...
Yes, I saw that. There seems to be some confusion as to how the Russians withdrew, riding in tanks or choosing a faster transport. But they all agree they did withdraw and the Ukrainians were left kind of empty handed with regard to Russian POW's. I guess they will have to try elsewhere. There are other fish in the sea.
Still, there's not a lot of information coming out of Bakhmut.
Yes, the last update was a couple days ago. At that time it hadn't fallen completely to Russian forces. But they were fighting in the suburbs.
The problem for the Russians is that even if they do take it, they may have just stepped into an encirclement trap, looking at how the Ukrainians are moving.
All seems a little ad-hoc to me.
The whole war from a Russian perspective seems a little ad-hoc. Something that Russian mil-bloggers are actually starting to comment on.
Map of Ukrainian advances on the east side of the river in Kherson Oblast, just since Thursday (in blue).
Yes, they seem to be making advances in both the east(in Luhansk) and south(Kherson) frontline areas. Even the Russians are admitting they don't have enough manpower to stop them. I hope this good news continues.
I haven't heard of any major changes near Bakhmut. The Russians are still attempting to push forward there, but I don't know if they have made any headway.
I have heard that some of those in the mobilization who have reached Ukraine have already been killed or surrendered to Ukrainian forces. Don't know if that is true or not.
…but I don't know if they have made any headway."
NewYorkTimes article last night made passing mention. The Ukrainian defenses were still holding firm (takin' heavy artillery fire, but not flinching; Russians gettin' no closer in spite of the additional cannon fodder acquired from Lyman).
Oh, off topic, I heard that the Supreme Court has chosen not to take up the Lindell case.
Putin has again doubled down on his bet, grabbing the Zaporizhzhia NPP and labeling it a Russian state asset.
Up in Kharkiv the Ukrainians have apparently found another Russian torture chamber. This one with a box full of gold teeth.
Yeah, I think Zelenskyy is right, Russia is just not normal. At least those who are in charge and those who follow them.
"Russia is just not normal."
I think they are being purposely sadistic and brutal so that their potential future enemies will be properly afraid. (That and they're sadists and they enjoy it.)
Ooooo, just out in the NYT(as reported by CNN)...it seems that the US intelligence community believes that it was elements in the Ukrainian government that authorized the assassination of Darya Dugina. Well, not her exactly, really her father, but she was unfortunate enough to be driving his car.
That blows all of my theories to heck.
"…it seems that the US intelligence community believes that it was
elements in the Ukrainian government that authorized the assassination
of Darya Dugina."
Really unfortunate that story had to get leaked to the press. It would seem that somebody on our side ain't entirely on our side.
There is a political faction that thinks we should let Putin win. They have members in high places, places from which such unfortunate leaks can be arranged.
________________________________
"Putin has…grabb[ed] the Zaporizhzhia NPP…"
Or, maybe not.
"On Wednesday, Petro Kotin, the head of Ukraine’s state
nuclear energy company, Energoatom, said he was taking
charge of the plant. In a video message posted on the
Telegram social media app, he urged workers there not to sign
any documents with its Russian occupiers.
"‛All further decisions regarding the operation of the station
will be made directly at the central office of Energoatom,’ Mr.
Kotin said.
"As a practical matter, it was not clear how Mr. Kotin’s policy
could be implemented unless Ukrainian forces recapture the
plant, which is on the east bank of the Dnipro River."
NYT
I believe I already posted a map ↑↑ of Ukrainian forces' current holdings on the east bank of the Dnipro River.
Reckon we'll have to keep our eyes open for a couple of days and see whose version of reality prevails here.
This headline on CNN today:
Russian-appointed leader in Kherson berates Putin’s "incompetent commanders"
He is blaming those in charge of prosecuting the war in Ukraine. Considering that Putin is taking such an active role in calling the shots, one would think this would be. well, Putin.
Really unfortunate that story had to get leaked to the press.
Yes.
There is a political faction that thinks we should let Putin win. They have members in high places, places from which such unfortunate leaks can be arranged.
Another reason I am concerned about the November election. It is not just Americans who will be affected if some people get in.
It's beginning to look like the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu, is getting set up to be the public scapegoat for the military failures in Ukraine. (Might even be largely his fault for all we know.) Shoigu was a personal friend of Putin's (don't know how much of that relationship has survived the last seven months), and Putin is notorious for protecting his friends in power. But the system is looking for a scapegoat to take Putin's rap, and it seems they're settling in on Shoigu. (A lot of military people have been quietly put out to pasture, but they're needing a public scapegoat about now--may have to be Shoigu/)
...but they're needing a public scapegoat about now--may have to be Shoigu/)
Don't know if that will work as Putin's "off ramp". But he can try. The price you pay for being too high up in the food chain and close to Putin.
It looks like Russians have found their way across the Bering Strait and to Alaskan shores. Two washed up seeking asylum.
Well, the investigation against Hunter Biden has come to a head, leaving a Trump appointee in Delaware to decide whether to bring charges.
It sounds like they have enough evidence to bring charges.
"Don't know if that will work as Putin's ‛off ramp’."
Putin's not looking for an 'off ramp'. He's lookin' for someone to sacrifice for the mistakes he's made so far, so that he can go forward with his subjugation of Ukraine.
"…leaving a Trump appointee in Delaware to decide…"
Works for me. I'm not in favor of tax evasion nor of false statements on weapons applications. The Trump appointee will have to decide whether or not he's got the evidence to get a conviction. (Otherwise a jury will vote 'not guilty', which is not what Trump's people want to happen.) Charging a man is one thing; securing a conviction is an entirely different thing.
We've noticed a Russian tendency to withdraw from Ukrainian towns under fire (or even to preëmptively withdraw, to pull out before the Ukrainians showed up to drive them out)
We've noticed the Russian tendency to make war on Ukraine's civilians and civilian infrastructure, especially civilian shelters and hospitals. (Turns out painting 'Children' in large, bright letters on the parking lot attracts Russian bombing--not what was expected.)
We've noticed mass graves of Ukrainian civilians and at least twenty separate torture chambers discovered so far.
I could go on. But there's no real point in listing more examples.
This is the Russians engaging in brutality and sadism for its own sake. It doesn't need any other reason, other than it is brutality and sadism for its own sake and they enjoy it.
We're used to seeing this sort of thing among third world nations, Arabs on Arabs, Africans on Africans, etc. They're used to seeing it from white Europeans (we may be less quick to acknowledge that). But 'The West' has forgotten the several examples of the Second World War. With those memories faded, Europe is now not used to seeing this from white Europeans on other white Europeans. And now it's a bit shocking. (They still don't believe Putin will eventually try to launch the nukes; don't know how they can still not believe that's a real possibility. But, I digress…)
While Russian brutality and sadism doesn't need another reason, Putin does have another reason. He's styled his conquest of Ukraine as struggle between cultures--he's promoting Russian culture as an alternative to 'Western' decadence. Considering the brutality with which the Russian Revolution of 1917 was fought (both sides) and the Russians matching the worst of Hitlers' abuses in World War Two (save for the creation of the death camps and their contribution to Goering and Himmler's 'Final Solution', which was unique); I think what Russia's brought to Ukraine is probably a fair representation of what Putin wants to contribute to the world. The brutality and sadism we've seen visited upon Ukraine is Putin's Russian culture in action. (The Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church praised Putin yesterday on the occasion of Putin's birthday, and called on his priests to pray for two consecutive days in a plea to the Russian God for Putin's continued good health and unimpeded brutality. Proving I suppose that it ain't just fundie Muslims who pray to a vicious God.)
This brings me, roundabout, to my question. What the Hell are the Russians thinking. (No, not Putin, I just went over what Putin's thinking. But the other Russians, the ones following Putin; and also the Russian citizens who so cavalierly ignore the War Against Ukraine until they get threatened with conscription. What the Hell are they thinking?) Do they not know that 'The West', Europe especially, will remember this? Do they not know they're gonna be on the hook for allowing it? Do they not know that their culture will be judged? Do they not know that the horrors perpetrated under Stalin were too conveniently forgotten only because they were overshadowed by the horror of Hitler's Germany? Or did they just think that winning, defeating Ukraine, would somehow make it all okay?
I got thoughts and questions here I've not entirely worked out. But they're not comin' outta this clean, no matter how it works out. That much I know already. This will be remembered long-term, like Hitler's Germany is still remembered, but Stalin is not so much.
A fuel truck exploded on the Kerch Bridge taking out part of the bridge and a railway line that runs across it. No one has claimed responsibility. It does put a crimp in Russia's war machine.
It wasn't a missile. It looked like some kind of explosive device or perhaps one of those Russian smokers who aren't very careful.
I'm not in favor of tax evasion nor of false statements on weapons applications.
Me either. If he is guilty and they can convict he should do the time or pay the fine.
This makes no difference to my feelings about Donald Trump. In my book his behavior is far more dangerous to my country.
Bad editing ↑↑; should have read as:
"…a Russian tendency to withdraw from Ukrainian towns under fire (or
even to preëmptively withdraw, to pull out before the Ukrainians showed
up to drive them out), and then shell the civilian areas of the towns
from which they just withdrew."
What the Hell are they thinking?
It's funny you should mention this. I was just listening to a Russian YouTuber who was kind of covering this very subject. I have hesitated to link to these vloggers in the past as most of them were in Russia. But now most of them are outside of Russia.
The fellow who was trying to explain how Russians viewed us perhaps has the best answer to your question. Now that he is outside Russia, and has acknowledged that his channel is monitored, it might be fine to also put him in a post.
I think the simple answer to your question is that we are seeing the reactions of your average Mom & Pop Russian to years of propaganda (22 years) by Vladimir Putin. It is similar to the propaganda put out by Trump & Co. vilifying liberals and anyone who opposed them. Only on steroids.
Putin has embedded in their minds that the West is decadent, it wants to destroy Russia, and it is the West that Russia is fighting, not Ukraine. The vlogger went into greater detail, which I will leave for later.
Part of this is that many Russians have never traveled outside Russia or even interacted with foreign tourists. Perhaps those Russians who fled Russia to avoid fighting, not because they disagreed with their government, may benefit from a little reality.
...and then shell the civilian areas of the towns
from which they just withdrew."
Gotta push them back as far as possible and also remove their shells.
This will not work, of course, if they shell Ukraine from Russian territory. That will take something else.
It looks like that fuel truck ignited train cars that were also carrying fuel, making that explosion rather large. Part of the bridge has collapsed.
While the Ukrainians have not claimed responsibility Russia is blaming them. Guilty or not the Ukrainians have posted a tribute to Putin, it was his birthday yesterday, combining the bridge explosion with Marilyn Monroe singing "Happy Birthday" to Kennedy. They have also come out, rather quickly I might say, with a painting of the bridge explosion and a postage stamp commemorating the incident.
Lol! As quick as Russia came out with the results of those referendums.
I do love the Ukrainian sense of humor.
They really do deserve to be part of NATO.
"…and it is the West that Russia is fighting, not Ukraine."
Non sequitur. It does not follow, even if one accepts the premise. It is Ukraine and Ukrainians they are torturing, not 'the West'. And it is widespread and endemic, not an occasional aberration.
Nope, it doesn't make sense, does it?
"Nope, it doesn't make sense, does it?"
That's because it's a rationalization, a weak excuse dreamed up after the fact. It has no validity.
Zelenskyy made reference to Bakhmut in his nightly video message (a Ukrainian national ritual now--although I suspect he no longer shoots them himself on his own cellphone).
"We are holding positions in Donbas, in particular in the
Bakhmut direction, where now it is very, very hard, very tough
fighting."
________________________________
And, returning to yesterday's topic du jure: The Russians have conducted a large scale rocket attack against residential areas of Zaporizhzhia yesterday. Seventeen dead civilians; many more wounded.
It has no validity.
Tell that to the brainwashed of Russia.
where now it is very, very hard, very tough
fighting."
Right about now they are fighting people desperate for a "win". It will take cutting more supply lines to weaken the Russian effort there, I am thinking.
"Tell that to the brainwashed of Russia."
I suspect they're much like our own dedicated Trumpkins. They already know the truth. But they prefer to 'believe' something else. (At least, to pretend to believe something else.)
For instance, we may notice that there has been no patriotic surge of young Russians to military recruitment offices in defense of 'the Motherland' against the decadent and rapacious West, not even among the rural population (supposedly Putin's wellspring of support for his oft-changing fantasy version of reasons for the war).
________________________________
"Right about now they are fighting people desperate for a
'win'."
If the media stories to which I've been treated are accurate, the folks leading the fight there on behalf of Russia are members of the Wagner Group. They're mercenaries. They will be 'desperate' for a 'win' only for so long. There'll come a point where the mercenary organization will decide that the candle is not worth the cost (or even that they've made the commercial/business mistake of signing on with the losing side), and their now apparent 'desperation' for a win will fade away like a morning fog.
(We can only hope that day comes sooner rather than later.)
It looks like Putin is throwing a temper tantrum. As usual it is Ukrainian civilians who suffer. Missiles were lobbed all over Ukraine. Who is the terrorist here? Those who blew that bridge made sure the explosion occurred during the slow period to minimize human casualties. It's still partially standing. I say it's still a target.
I was going to do a new post this weekend, but got busy with fall chores. In Minnesota this time of year the weather can be real changeable. So when it's nice you have to take advantage.
I suspect they're much like our own dedicated Trumpkins.
The Russian propagandists use a lot of the same arguments as do the far right in the US. They almost seem to feed off each other when it comes to tactics used to undermine the country they reside in. Like a cancer.
There'll come a point where the mercenary organization will decide that the candle is not worth the cost (or even that they've made the commercial/business mistake of signing on with the losing side), and their now apparent 'desperation' for a win will fade away like a morning fog.
(We can only hope that day comes sooner rather than later.)
I'm seeing reports that that moment is here. Even Wagner is fed up with the poor showing of the Russian leadership in managing the war. And they too have taken heavy losses.
I don't know details of what the Russians have for forces at Bakhmut or what the Ukrainians have there either. It's a long front line that seems to be changing constantly. Bakhmut might be bait.
"It looks like Putin is throwing a temper tantrum…."
An apt description I suppose. He's certainly wasted a lot of precision ammunition on non-military targets. (And he does not have an expendable surplus of such ammunition.) He'd get more return on his investment if he'd hit at military targets, limit the Ukrainians ability to fight. But, no, he's gotta tantrum instead and shoot at civilians and civilian infrastructure.
He still seems convinced that he's somehow gonna break the Ukrainians' will to resist and to fight back. And it don't look like that plan's workin'; one would think he would have noticed that by now.
(I think he's simply hurrying the day when the Biden administration will decide to give Ukraine longer range weaponry and better air-defense capabilities.)
"I say it's still a target."
And that had occurred to me as well. The sooner the better.
________________________________
"Bakhmut might be bait."
That also has occurred to me as well, although I thought of it more as a possible sink instead, an earthbound black hole of sorts; a place to keep pouring in troops merely to watch them spin down into the vortex that had consumed those who went before.
He'd get more return on his investment if he'd hit at military targets,...
Speculation is that he is sending a message, that this is what it will be like in winter. It looks like the strikes turned off the power in Ukraine.
But that wasting of munitions did occur to me too. I certainly hope that is the case.
I think better air defense is coming. Although it sounds like they did shoot quite a few down with what they have. But really not enough. Obviously.
...a place to keep pouring in troops merely to watch them spin down into the vortex that had consumed those who went before.
Good analogy. It could be said of all of Ukraine.
I ran across something of interest regarding the Russians who are fleeing their homeland. It seems that there are Russian employers doing the same. They are concerned with losing their employees so are moving outside the country as well. And there are many who simply do not support Putin's War.
It seems that the pandemic's lesson of working remotely works for other reasons.
I'm beginning to think that Putin's 'temper tantrum' over the last 36-48 hours merely used up targets and resources that were already selected, and that would have come anyway over the course of the next week or so. Putin just had them all moved up to the same day, so he could designate it as 'retaliation' for the strike on his favorite bridge.
Putin's tantrum didn't come close to hitting all that Putin intended to hit--most of the barrage didn't get through after all. So he ain't out of targets. But, there's already been a precipitous fall off in 'precision' strikes in the last twenty-four hours. There's been no follow-on second wave the second night. If it takes days to fire up again that'll be solid evidence for my theory.
"There's been no follow-on second wave the second night."
I may have written too soon. Later reports indicate a (smaller?) second overnight wave, stretching into Tuesday morning (our time).
The Ukrainians seem to think the attack had been in the works for some time. The Russians just used the bridge as an excuse. Could be, Putin has been backed into a corner now for some time.
There are others who speculate the Putin has used up quite a bit of Russia's arsenal. Kind of odd if he really thought he would be fighting NATO. Nothing in reserve wouldn't seem like a good idea.
Yes, so far the second wave seems smaller. But Zelenskyy is saying Russia has bought 2,500 Shaheed drones. Don't know if that is confirmed.
I guess those things are very noisy so at least people can hear them coming and take evasive action or target them.
Listening last night to a Russian YouTube channel doing interviews in Russia I realized that I am tired of the willful ignorance or straight up support for Purtin's War that so many ordinary Russians exhibit. I realize that there are many Russian's who do not support the war, but they are choosing not to actively fight against it. It makes them partly culpable.
Oh, a little off topic.
Yesterday in my paper there was an article about a group of illegal immigrants that crossed the northern Minnesota border. Every once in a while you will hear of something like this. Last winter a group made the most unfortunate choice of traveling in winter. They froze to death. Very sad as one was a young family. They were from India.
What was rather noteworthy of this latest group was the area of the world from which they came. They were all from Great Britain with at least one from Ireland.
Has Brexit been that bad for them or are they worried about the widening of Putin's war?
"Russia has bought 2,500 Shaheed drones."
I don't think Iran had 2,500 Shaheed drones to sell; I don't think they had 2,500 drones total, even if we threw in the Mohajer models (which the Russians also purchased). I suppose that means Iran is now busy filling the Russian purchase order.
I have no idea how fast they can pump them off the end of the assembly line. (And then again, maybe their inventory was bigger than I suppose.)
________________________________
"I realized that I am tired of the willful ignorance or straight up
support for Putin's War that so many ordinary Russians
exhibit…."
I ain't cuttin' 'em a lot of slack on that either.
David Ignatius writing for the Washington Post tells us that the Ukrainians don't pin the blame just on Putin either; they've decided the real enemy is Russia; Putin's merely a derivative problem, born of the cultural shift that's overtaken Russia after the breakup of the Soviet Union. Ukraine went one direction; Russia went the other. Russians became Orcs.
________________________________
"They were all from Great Britain with at least one from
Ireland."
Don't necessarily mean they were natives of the British Isles. Lots of people from across the Commonwealth have taken up residence in Great Britain these last few years.
________________________________
N.B. "U.S. officials were angered when the Ukrainians
detonated a car bomb in Moscow in August that killed the
daughter of a promiment Russian analyst. The public release
of information about that plot in recent days was meant, in
part, as a warning to Ukraine not to repeat a similarly
provocative move, according to an official familiar with the
matter."
Politico
I still think the leak was a mistake, an unfortunate and unnecessary mistake.
Don't necessarily mean they were natives of the British Isles.
That thought did occur to me. I didn't hear anymore details on what citizenship they actually hold or if it was recent to Britain or Ireland.
I still think the leak was a mistake, an unfortunate and unnecessary mistake.
Agreed.
It looks like Putin is dangling Nordstream 2 in front of the EU, saying that it is ready to pump gas to the EU anytime they are ready.
Putin is hoping to cause some political pain for the current governments in Europe. He doesn't actually believe any of them are going to take him up on his offer, but he's giving some ammunition to their domestic political opposition (especially to the right-wing fringe parties that have been relatively flourishing the last few years)
________________________________
The missile attacks against Ukraine have fallen off precipitously by this the fourth day now. They've been largely replaced by 'kamikaze' drone attacks using the Iranian made drones. (With a massive uptick in artillery shelling, especially around Mykolaiv, and other southern urban target zones.)
________________________________
The U.N. General Assembly voted 143 to 5 (with 35 abstentions) to condemn the Russians' claim to have annexed portions of Ukraine. Bigger spread than I'd been guessing it'd get. Ain't gonna influence Putin though.
Lee:
” But, there's already been a precipitous fall off in 'precision' strikes in the last twenty-four hours.”
Aside from the Iranian drones, who are an annoyance but not very hard to shoot down and are anyway in limited numbers, it seems that most of the attacks have been by S300 anti air rockets deployed to hit ground targets. If they’re wasting their air defenses to do ground assaults it means they are running seriously low on stuff like the Kalibr rockets or the Iskander missiles (their only missile system that is actually on par with western weaponry of the sort).
"…it means they are running seriously low on stuff like the
Kalibr rockets or the Iskander missiles…"
Perhaps it merely means that they have a surplus of S-300s (which they do), and no enemy air force to use them against, and no real market for selling those surplus S-300s (their buyers all wanting the S-400 or S-500 series missiles these days). Also, the S-300 carries an adequate warhead for the purpose of terrorizing civilians in parks and hospitals and market places and other 'soft' civilian targets, which is what they're mostly being used for.
NATO claims to have jamming devices that'll be effective against both Russian and Iranian drones. Supposed to be sending them by bunches to Ukraine in the very near future.
Putin has come up with another way to try to lure the EU into buying Russian gas again. This time Russia would run a pipeline to Turkey and it could then act as a hub to supply the European and other countries with gas. It's kind of how Russia acquires sanctioned goods through third countries only in reverse.
"You just keep on thinking, Butch"
The final wrap up on the Jan 6ᵗʰ Committee hearings was something of an anti-climactic exercise in doing ones duty. It was solid, but shorn of drama.
The people who most needed to watch it already know he's guilty as sin, and they're gonna vote for him again anyway. Ain't nothin' gonna change that.
Fifteen European nations (so far) have organized a brand new air-defense network designed to standardize and share the best defensive technology against air attacks by Russia. The intentional brutality, the 'deliberate cruelty', of Russia's air and artillery war against Ukrainian civilians has done what Putin wanted it to do. It got Europe's attention focused on the damage Russia could and would do, short of an all out nuclear attack, just for the malicious pleasure to be taken in the doing of the damage. NYT
I don't know that Putin was thinking that fully through far enough ahead.
And, in another new wrinkle… NATO has agreed to start training non-NATO troops (from Ukraine) on NATO facilities in Europe. For the first time ever they'll be training foreign soldiers at NATO bases in Europe.
Yeah, Putin got their attention right 'nuff. (Don't know how long it'll last, but he has gotten their attention.)
________________________________
The Russians have begun openly evacuating loyal civilians from Kherson. The local civil authorities are now making public statements to their people about how and where to clear out and be appropriately received in Crimea or even in Russia proper. (Writing's on the wall there I reckon. I don't know if they've cleared that with Putin, but they're doin' it anyway.)
The British Ministry of Defense has made an intelligence update with today's date on it, saying that the Russians and their allied forces (including the Wagner Group) have made 'tactical advances' toward the town of Bakhmut. I'm not sure just what that means, but it appears to not mean they've actually taken any ground any closer to Bakhmut. On the other hand, it does appear to mean they've not give up on it either.
Russia's 'pro-war' bloggers, vloggers YouTube champions, and other keyboard warriors are bitchin' these days about the precipitous fall off in missile strikes against Ukrainian civilians. They seem to not understand that Russia just doesn't have the ammunition available to maintain the recent level of assaults on Ukraines' civilians and civil infrastructure. They're already using high-priced Kalibr missiles to attack stationary, soft targets across the south (ones that're isolated enough to make a near miss obvious and thus the Russians don't want to use their S-300s and let it be known how often they actually miss what they're shooting at with those).
Supposedly the Russians have only about 300 Iranian built drones left on hand (according to Ukrainian Dept. of Defense officials who claim to have confirmed those numbers with intercepts of Russian communications). And they're trying to acquire more. So, now it comes to a question of how many does Iran have to give?
The people who most needed to watch it already know he's guilty as sin, and they're gonna vote for him again anyway. Ain't nothin' gonna change that.
Death would change that. Did you notice the pics of Trump in 2016 as opposed to Trump in 2022? Guy looks old, very old. You watch we'll get stuck with DeSantis as the Republican candidate. The Republicans won't field a reasonable candidate even if Trump isn't around.
Elon Musk has always been rather odd, but I had enormous respect for his helping the Ukrainians. That respect has all but died after his meeting with Putin, proposing a peace proposal that basically gives Russia everything it wants, and then turning his back on Ukraine.
They say that power corrupts. That is obvious with Putin and also, I think, with Musk. What he needs is some healthy competition.
I don't know that Putin was thinking that fully through far enough ahead.
I think that Putin saw what he wanted to see and made assumptions that were and are incorrect.
I was actually thinking the other day about the speculation by some that our withdrawal from Afghanistan emboldened Putin to invade Ukraine. If that was the case I would consider that a huge miscalculation on Putin's part. What that withdrawal did was allow us to focus our resources on helping Ukraine. We may not have been able to supply as much assistance if it was needed elsewhere.
Russia's 'pro-war' bloggers, vloggers YouTube champions, and other keyboard warriors are bitchin' these days about the precipitous fall off in missile strikes against Ukrainian civilians.
Sounds like Ukraine took out a Russian railroad supply hub in Luhansk.
The final wrap up on the Jan 6ᵗʰ Committee hearings was something of an anti-climactic exercise in doing ones duty.
I kind of forgot about them. I thought they were done or still on hiatus. But I see that the have more video of behind the scenes events with lawmakers. I have seen a few clips on CNN of those.
I will have to tear my self away from Ukraine war news to watch that last hearing. This one seems to be the finale.
"… we'll get stuck with DeSantis as the Republican candidate."
Trump is jealous of DeSantis. They nominate DeSantis and there's a very good chance Trump will run as an independent 3ʳᵈ Party candidate just to spite them, and probably thereby throw the election to the Democrats. The Republicans know this.
________________________________
"…after his meeting with Putin…"
Musk and Moscow have both denied there was any meeting between Putin and Musk. They've also both denied that there was any conversation between the two of them other than a discussion about space exploration quite a long time ago (very much pre-Ukraine War).
As far as I know there is absolutely no evidence to suggest they're not telling the entire truth about that. Don't know that anybody can even place them in the same city at the same time, much less in a common meeting.
Musk is odd though. He doesn't need to meet with Putin to incite his oddity.
________________________________
"Sounds like Ukraine took out a Russian railroad supply hub in
Luhansk."
They seem to have done some serious damage around Belgorod, Russia as well; took out another ammo storage along with some other burnable stuff.
________________________________
It appears that 'tactical advances' on Bakhmut means the Russians have taken more local villages laterally, extending their eastern battle lines around Bakhmut (coming closer to surrounding the town, if not yet closing in).
I have heard conflicting views on Bakhmut. They may both be a little right.
The first is that Wagner, being paid on contract, is ok with gradually taking territory stretching out the job. They don't really care if the original purpose for taking that territory is no longer valid.
The second is that Bakhmut is a supply hub for the Ukrainians and therefore juicy target, so to speak.
I have heard that there was some kind of explosion or fire at an energy facility in or near Belgorod. No confirmation on that.
Bakhmut is a natural choke point on a highway the Ukrainians find critical for efficient troop movements, and the old salt mines mean it's got a rail network as well, which the Russians need for transporting their military gear (Russia's military is notably reliant on rail transport--bit of an anachronism, but true nonetheless.)
"No confirmation on that."
I got confirmation on that.
"…took out another ammo storage along with some
other burnable stuff."
Fuel storage facility is "other burnable stuff"--one storage tank aflame--five others not yet burning--might or might not catch fire still yet.
From CNN this:
Gunmen kill at least 11 people in attack on Russian military recruits, Russia's state media reports
From CNN's Mariya Knight
Two gunmen opened fire on Russian military recruits at a training ground in Russia’s Belgorod region, killing at least 11 people and wounding another 15, Russia’s state news agency TASS reports.
The attack happened Saturday during a training session at the Western Military District, according to TASS, which cited the Russian Defense Ministry. The gunmen were said to be from former Soviet states. Russian officials have branded the attack an act of terrorism.
“As a result of a terrorist attack at a military training ground in the Belgorod region, 11 people were killed, 15 were injured and are receiving medical assistance,” TASS reported.
“The incident occurred during a shooting training session with volunteers preparing for a special operation. The terrorists attacked the personnel of the unit with small-arms fire.”
According to TASS, two individuals who committed the “terrorist act” were killed in retaliatory fire at the training ground.
The Belgorod region is in western Russia on the border with Ukraine.
An apparent fratricide event. But on reading closer I wonder if it had to do with whatever "special operation" was being planned? Did someone catch wind of something and wanted to deter whatever it was?
Perhaps it would be good to remember that the entirety of Putin's War Against Ukraine is referred to by his propaganda machine as a 'special operation'.
Given the stilted language being adopted by Russian media, perhaps that's the reference there. Hard to say for sure; they're hiding something, but it's not clear what.
We have two 'volunteers', not from Russia itself, but from a former Soviet Republic (perhaps a member state of the current Russian Federation, perhaps not). Perhaps they are deemed 'volunteers' merely because current Russian law still prohibits the sending of conscripts to wars of aggression outside the geo-political borders of Russia. Or, perhaps we have a couple of jihadi from out east, who decided this was a convenient way to make jihad on Russia. Or, perhaps they were Ukrainians (perhaps conscripts?) Or, perhaps your suspicions are correct.
They're keeping something under wraps. I don't know what. Have to keep an eye on the headlines. Somebody'll likely spill the beans on it eventually, and perhaps before too long.
________________________________
The WashingtonPost is reporting that Russia is going to start purchasing 300 and 700 kilometer ranged surface-to-surface "precision-guided" and un-guided missiles from Iran.
Ukraine, of course, will not be given weaponry with remotely comparable range.
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The Russians have killed the head conductor of Kherson's Regional Music and Drama Theatre because he refused to play at a concert they were organizing to celebrate the return of "normal" life under the Russian occupation. Went to his home and shot him for refusing. (Little irony at work there.)
Lee:
” Ukraine, of course, will not be given weaponry with remotely comparable range.”
I think the reasoning is that Ukraine doesn’t need weapons to reach into Russia. And that might be prudent so as to avoid this shitstorm from turning global.
I also think that with the current levels of supplies from the west Ukraine will win. Y’all’s Himars and Hrams systems have really changed the game. The initial Nlaws and Javelins were a fast and critical help at the time but especially Himars has proven fucking awesome. The Russkies have no response to it.
Russia really only is ahead in one area and that is artillery and that is a dwindling advantage now that Ukraine is Himarsing first of all ammo depots and recently also artillery stations themselves. The Russkies can send salvos of dumb shells and projectiles but the vast majority of them hit nothing of importance. Ukraine can strike with precision and make almost every rocket count.
"I think the reasoning is that Ukraine doesn’t need weapons to reach
into Russia."
By the same token, Russia doesn't need weapons that can reach 300 klicks into Ukraine. If they wanna claim Ukrainian territory let 'em do their fighting in Ukraine, let 'em come to Ukraine to fight. This shit where they stay back in Russia and shoot into Ukraine and the Ukrainians can't shoot back is just that--shit. We oughta be callin' 'em on it.
We ought not allow that game.
We have two 'volunteers', not from Russia itself, but from a former Soviet Republic (perhaps a member state of the current Russian Federation, perhaps not).
I heard they were from Tajikistan. One Ukrainian source thought it was a "religious dispute".
You're fight, it could be anything. But the end result is 11 deaths and 15 wounded. That won't play well in Russia.
This shit where they stay back in Russia and shoot into Ukraine and the Ukrainians can't shoot back is just that--shit. We oughta be callin' 'em on it.
There will never be any peace if they continue in that fashion. It will have to be addressed in someway.
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