The Ukrainians began their counter-attack in the south on Saturday morning (Friday night our time), and they publicly announced that offensive within a few hours of launching it (maybe within a few minutes). Their opening efforts are currently centered around the southern city of Kherson, which they very well may take back from the Russians within the foreseeable future (contrary to the more pessimistic expectations of our own military analysts), and they're including nearby towns, like Melitopol, which is also under Russian managment. I suspect you knew of this initiative already.
And, further north… The Russians have turned up the heat in their 'slow and plodding' advance into the Ukrainian Donbas region. They seem to want to take control of the entirety of their claimed 'independent' Ukrainian provinces as soon as possible. (Rumors that they may anticipate a supply chain collapse coming soon.) They seem to be throwing all the artillery they have in as fast and hard as they can throw throw explosives. If it works they will soon be sole holders of more piles of rubble. (Most of the population having fled already.)
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ The E.U. has supposedly finalized an agreement to ban Russian oil imports. It was necessary to include a provision in the agreement to the effect that the banning of Russian oil imports would not apply to those members of the E.U. who didn't want to ban Russian oil imports (thus making the supposed 'ban' optional, entirely voluntary). But, once they all agreed that the newly amended agreement didn't actually ban any Russian oil imports, in spite of what they called it, they had the skids greased for its final passage. (They also have perfected and will apply another dodge wherein they all agree that the conversion of Euros to Russian Rubles and then the subsequent of purchase Russian oil with those Rubles means they aren't really purchasing Russian oil after all. It's not clear how this dodge supposedly justifies its claims, but they don't intend to answer further questions about that anyway. Euroweenie-ism at its most profound there.)
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ Putin and Recep Erdoğan talked on the phone yesterday and agreed in principal to the "unimpeded cargo shipping" of Ukrainian grain and Russian fertilizers out of the Black Sea "in coordination with Turkish partners". Maybe Erdoğan will have to adopt a more lavish lifestyle, maybe buy one of those Russian mega-yachts to put his new found partnership funds to full use. The Russians should be able to offer him a real deal on one of those.
Yes, and I hope it is successful. It would be a good start...
Putin and Recep Erdoğan talked on the phone yesterday...
Not really a good thing, despite what one might think. Putin will grab as much territory as he can and then use Erdogan as a go between to talk ceasefire. They will try to consolidate what they have snatched and then in time will go for more.
If possible it would be better to keep the Russians scrambling.
I noticed a Russian ship was making use of the opened port at Mariupol. I don't know what the cargo was, but if it was military it would have been a good target, if possible.
Speaking of Mariupol, I was rather surprised that there were apparently no booby traps left behind. But maybe that was part of the agreement, which the Russians seem to be breaking. At least I have not noticed any soldiers from Mariupol finding their way home via prisoner swap.
"… and then use Erdogan as a go between to talk ceasefire."
Putin doesn't need Erdoğan for that. There's no reason for him to pay Erdoğan for that. Putin's got the Euroweenies to push his ceasefire for him. (I suspect that's behind Putin's rush to grab as much of the Donbas as fast as he can--soon as the tide turns against him Putin's gonna start demanding a cease-fire-in-place, leaving him with land he grabbed.) The Euroweenies will be more than eager to push that 'solution' on Ukraine. And they won't charge Putin a damn thing for it; they'll do it for free. Erdoğan would make Putin pay something.
As it is now, Russia's agreed to pay Turkish 'partners' for passage through the Straights so Russia can then sell the stolen Ukrainian grain (in 'partnership' with those Turkish profiteers). I'm bettin' Erdoğan's charging a stiff premium for that too.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ "Biden has said he will not send any long range ammo for the MLRS system to Ukraine."
I would have had Biden couple that with a demand that Russia also forswear the use of long range ammo in their launchers. Make the Russians do their shooting from within Ukrainian territory, so the Ukrainians can shoot back. (Also, demand the Russians quit sending up aircraft from bases outside Ukrainian territory. Gotta base 'em in Ukraine to use 'em in Ukraine--same rules for both sides.) The Russians would never agree, of course, but the demands would already be out there in case we want to press the questions later for some reason.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ 'Plan C'
Two weeks ago we were still considering the implementation of Putin's 'Plan B'--the encirclement of the forward elements of Ukraine's armed forces in the Donbas region. The Russians were attempting a double pincer movement with Russian troops surrounding the Ukrainians, coming in around them from the north and from the south. We did not know that The Plan had already been abandoned. Been two weeks and we've seen that plan has indeed been abandoned in favor of a 'pound the ground' artillery barrage that progressively levels everything in its path, leaving the Ukrainians with nothing to defend except piles of rubble mostly emptied of citizens (save hard-headed holdouts ain't got the sense to move along when the time has clearly come--the usual inexplicable 10%). The follow up to the slow destruction of all within their field of view is a subsequent Russian infantry advance to claim dominion of the destroyed terrain and the piles of rubble. Clearly the Russians have given up on that grand pincer movement they once had in mind and are now committed to this new plan, 'Plan C' (have been committed to it visibly for over a week now). And the new plan is Putin to the core. And nobody's seen the new Russian Field Marshal, Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov, the notorious 'Butcher of Syria' for that entire two weeks. He's gone even more invisible than Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had become by mid-April (before being trotted out to occasionally perform unpleasant interim tasks).
And, for what is at least the third consecutive day, Russian forces are on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, a major 'hub' for transportation in northeastern Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast. (Sievierodonetsk sits about centered north to south, on the western edge of the Luhansk territory.)
Unfortunately the West seems to be hoping that the sanctions would crimp the Kremlin's ability to wage a long range war. Maybe, maybe not, but that is a long term "solution" and Ukraine needs some short term help.
Although it does seem as if some Russians believe that there will be issues with repairs for certain critical infrastructure in the future as they have been making enquiries of non NATO countries with regard to parts.
The Russians are making more strident claims that by sending weapons to Ukraine the West is just prolonging the war. Same could be said for the Russians. All they would have to do is withdraw and the war would end. The Ukrainians are not interested in acquiring territory from Russia.
Off topic: It seems an inordinate number of innocent people (very surprised and terrified innocent people I might add) have died over the Memorial Day Weekend while lighting the shadows of right-wing America's imagined unfettered 'right' to possess and use assault weapons on the public streets and private campuses of this country.
And it's been a looonnngg weekend with new victims of Americas' supposed 'right' to brandishment of assault weapons on the street collecting into Wednesday. (So far.)
"‛The unfortunate conclusion to draw is that we in the West are telling Russia, ‘It’s OK for you to shoot from Belarus into Ukraine. It’s OK for you to shoot from Russia,’ ’ General Breedlove said at a virtual security event. "‛‘But it is not OK for Ukraine to shoot back into Russia.’ ’ "The fact of the matter is that Mr. Zelensky had little choice but to accept the restrictions that Mr. Biden has insisted upon. He needs the American weaponry — and similar equipment provided by the British — if he is to have any hope of repelling Russia, currently making small, daily progress in the Donbas. "Ukraine is ‛constantly reassessing what their requirements are, based on events on the ground, based on changes to the Russian approach,’ Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, told the Defense Writers Group on Wednesday. "But Ms. Smith said the U.S. and the alliance has been clear that NATO will not become a party to the conflict, the U.S. will not send forces to Ukraine and the administration will not support Ukraine with equipment to attack Russia." "‛While the pieces of equipment have evolved and changed over the last couple of months, I think the parameters have remained relatively clear and I don’t expect those to change,’ she said. "In anticipation of the decision that President Biden announced on Tuesday, the Defense Department moved the rocket systems it will provide to Ukraine from the United States to Europe. It will still take about three weeks for Ukrainian soldiers to learn how to operate and maintain the systems, a top Pentagon official said. "Mr. Kahl deflected questions of whether even the condensed training course at an undisclosed location in Europe would take too long for the rocket systems to play a meaningful role in the war. "‛The Ukrainians have proven time and time again to be extraordinarily ingenious, and quick learners,’ he said." NewYorkTimes
And, for what is at least the fourth consecutive day, Russian forces are on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk.
"‛The unfortunate conclusion to draw is that we in the West are telling Russia, ‘It’s OK for you to shoot from Belarus into Ukraine. It’s OK for you to shoot from Russia,’ ’ General Breedlove said at a virtual security event. "‛‘But it is not OK for Ukraine to shoot back into Russia.’ ’
Indeed. I would guess that if someone were shooting missiles into our country from outside we would be going after them at their place of origin.
Ukraine is a big country. I would think that long range shells could be fired within its territory without hitting Russia. So we are not giving them something that would necessarily be used outside. Also, as someone pointed out, it is possible to stand at the border of Ukraine & Russia and fire into Russia with short range ammo. Or drones.
"… we would be going after them at their place of origin."
Yeah, well, I guess the question of Russians making war against Ukraine from sites predominately outside of Ukraine can be addressed later, when and if it happens and if it actually matters by that time. If the Ukrainians can chase the Russians back across the borders and the Russians are still trying to fire on them from safe haven in Russia that'll be due time to tell Biden that his pronouncements on this subject need to be lifted. I suspect the real problem will eventually involve Euroweenie demands that the Ukrainians agree to a cease-fire while the Russians are still holding Ukrainian territory in the Donbas and across the southern shore. (I expect Putin to start demanding a cease fire as soon as the tide of battle turns against his soldiers and they start losing their recently acquired ground back to the Ukrainians once again. And then the Euroweenies will want the Ukrainians to comply with Russian demands and stand down, leaving Putin with his winnings.) For right now Biden's decree serves to somewhat placate the Euroweenies, and they already need some placating. We'll havta deal with them bein' weenies when the time comes it matters.
"… long range shells could be fired within its territory without hitting Russia…"
Long range missiles could be fired south to hit Russian warships. Wouldn't hurt even a little bit to back those bastards up some more.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ But, for right now, I think I want to point out a significant problem inherent in Putin's 'Plan C': He's relying on the support of a significant number of 'foreign' troops. A noticeable percentage of his current fighters in the Donbas fight have been gathered up from the local warlords' forces. A significant further few of them are 'contract' fighters (Wagner Group soldiers and others--Chechens etc.). These guys signed on for a fight where they had their opposing forces significantly outgunned and where they enjoyed the advantage of modern Russian air and artillery cover going up against the Ukrainians' Soviet era artillery in resistance. There's gonna be some significant increase in the Russians' morale problems as the Ukrainians bring to bear comparable, or even superior, artillery support in a war that Putin has designed to be fought under the umbrella of superior artillery power (i.e. superior Russian artillery power.). Them guys could barely move the Ukrainians back when they had the significant advantage--they gonna be much displeased with the idea of going into battle where the advantage has been reversed. (May not agree to go forward when called upon; may not even agree to hang ‛round--making victory via Euroweenie a much more important part of Putin's war plans going forward.)
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ And…. For the fifth consecutive day, Russian forces are (were?) on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk. Nevertheless, President Zelenskyy has recently touted 'some success' by the Ukrainian forces resisting the invaders in and around that city.
(Also, Zelenskyy did make special mention in his most recent nightly broadcast that the Russians had sent in native Ukrainian fighters loyal to the breakaway warlords' of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts as their front line cannon fodder in the initial attack on Sievierodonetsk--burning them up until they stabilized enough ground to send in Wagner Group and other 'contract' fighters. But, now, as of this morning, it looks like the Ukrainian counter-attack has begun around Sievierodonetsk as well as in the southern regions--the Russian 'contract' fighters might be in for a few hard nights up there after all.)
And now, after the Russians spent five consecutive days on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the battered ruins that were once the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, they are now enduring a serious come-back by Ukraine forces contesting for possession of those very same ruins.
The Russians never did put it away and now it seems to be slippin' 'way from them already.
This article tends to agree with the assessment that PUtin is having problems finding people in his military willing to fight.
But even if the Russian army in the Donbass is eating its way forward in small steps, Putin's commanders still have to contend with considerable problems: For example, mobilizing enough troops and replacing the worn-out soldiers with new ones. The ISW cites the spokesman for the Ukrainian military administration in the city of Odessa, Maksym Marchenko.
Russia's army can't get its 40 percent problem under control According to Marchenko, 30 to 40 percent of the exchanged Russian soldiers would refuse to return to the front. As a result, Russian commanders would be forced to send unprepared and unmotivated units back into combat. One reason for the miserable morale is still the often poor supply of food and medicine, the ISW briefing goes on to say.
I would think another reason they would not be anxious to go back is if they are being treated to a similar kind of bombardment from artillery that the Ukrainians have been seeing. Maybe we are seeing a little of that in their pulling back in Sievierodonetsk.
Btw, if you do click on my link, the original article is in German. You will have to do a translation to English. It is usually an option if you right click on the article.
Apparently, according to my brother, the Holiday gas stations here have reworked their gas pumps to supply gasoline cut with 15% ethanol for the lowest cost choice. This is 5% more than Biden was advising, which could be detrimental to older cars' engines (like mine). They still have a higher octane choice with no ethanol, at a higher price. Speculation is that they are doing this to make up for the money they lose by accepting Cub Rewards cards. These cards give you x number of cents off your price per gallon depending how much you have accumulated by your grocery purchase. Many people, like me, wait until we accumulate at least 30 cents and then cash them in at the pump.
"Maybe we are seeing a little of that in their pulling back in Sievierodonetsk."
Something very strange manifesting itself in Sievierodonetsk. The Ukrainians made the decision that they'd done about all the damage they could do to the Russian forces, and began to pull back. Figuring to surrender the rest of the rubble to the Russians (pretty much nothing left there to defend anyway according to Ukrainian lights). Figured to take back the crossroads later, with less loss of Ukrainian soldiers than they'd have suffered trying to wait out the bombardment in place. Then the Russian soldiers who were left began to withdraw from all contacts with Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainians would fire a few shots--Russians would flee. Next thing they knew they were retaking ground they'd been intending to surrender to the bombardment--which so far hasn't come.
I'm keeping an eye on that; it's weird. And nobody's talking 'bout it.
I may have found an answer. The Ukrainian forces had moved up some heavy artillery to greet the incoming Russians even as the Ukrainians were moving their own soldiers back out of the firing line. NewYorkTimes Looks like the Russians didn't want any of that.
Putin has decided that his own preferred 'grind them down' style of war against the Ukrainian civilian population is gonna be a winner for him on account of he thinks he can count on the Euroweenies bein' Euroweenies in the end and he's expecting them to force Ukraine's surrender when he finally gets around to asking for a cease-fire. WashingtonPost
He may be right. But then again, maybe not this time. We shall have to wait and see. In the interim, the Russians have run into a suddenly stiffened resistance in and around Lyschansk/Sievierodonetsk. And they're having to give back ground there (and across the eastern front). Local resistance is moving the Russians back a little in the Kherson vicinity as well.
Could be the high water mark of Russian territorial acquisition will never reach a level that Putin can sell back home as a 'victory' for Russia. This would make it harder for him to start calling for a cease-fire that leaves him in control of enough Ukrainian territory to make salable story of glorious Russioan victory back home in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ Moving on a little bit…
"…waiting for the right weapons to arrive…"
Originally I was kinda sceptical of the utility of sending Soviet era MIGs to Ukraine. I thought we should send things the Ukrainians could put to more immediate use, and the situation on the ground there just didn't seem to call for a lot of offensive air cover (their demands for help to 'close the skies' notwithstanding). They weren't even putting combat hours on the airplanes they had. (Russian fighters tended to go up top--fire maybe once--often from still inside Russia--and then get back down before a Ukrainian response could locate and threaten the Russian plane. They're still inclined to follow that model.) But, Putin's since then sidelined his top generals and imposed a personal favorite 'grind them down' style of artillery and air barrage warfare. Plus he's increasingly sending in close air support for his ground war (often in the form of spotters who drop flares to mark a target for follow up artillery barrages).
When the situation changes, I can change with it. All of which goes to say that I'm beginning to think it's time to rethink sending fighter planes to Ukraine. I'm not committed to that being a good idea just yet, but I'm rethinking it. May be 'bout time for that now.
(One of the principle distinctions between more fighter planes and long range guided missiles is that the Ukrainians already have MIG fighter planes and the Euroweenies would be less bent 'bout seeing more. And long range missiles/rockets on the Ukrainian fighters would merely match (one hopes overmatch) the air-to-ground missiles the Russians are already using. Again, less fuss from the Euroweenies. Also, it might be easier to start sliding them across the border to the Ukrainians without a lot of notice to the media, or by the media--again generating less fuss from the Euroweenies.)
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ And, while most eyes were elsewhere… It looks like the Ukrainians may have largely destroyed a large Russian army unit in the forests around Izium (~50-60,000 population east of Kharkiv) NYT Russian army went into the woods; never come out again. That's not gonna be good for Russian morale, word of that gets around.
It looks like the Ukrainians may have largely destroyed a large Russian army unit in the forests around Izium..
A little cut here...a little cut there...and it may come down to who wants Ukraine more, the Russians or the Ukrainians. Who is willing to sacrifice all?
The Ukrainians are very determined and the people of Russia are not so clued in to what they will have to sacrifice...yet.
"The Kremlin has given the commander of Russian troops in Ukraine, General Alexander Dvornikov a deadline to seize Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast, according to the head of the Luhansk regional military administration Serhiy Hayday." NewVoiceofUkraine
(The body of the article suggests that Dvornikov has an 'out'. Merely 'surrounding' the Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk urban area and cutting off the last open connection to the outside world, definitively isolating the dual cities, as was done in Mariupol will be considered sufficient.) Reckon General Dvornikov is still glad he took that job?
The Brits have announced that they're giving Ukraine multiple launch rocket systems with a slightly longer range than the ones Biden has approved (they extend targeting range by about 10% over our missiles).
Rare move: Russian media (Putin's media) has confirmed the death of another Russian general. They don't usually confirm, but did this time. Maj. Gen. Roman Kutuzov was killed in fighting in eastern Ukraine. Major General, that's two-star.
"Major General Roman Kutuzov, Commander of the 1st Army Corps (Orcs) of the [DPR], has been officially denazified and demilitarized,” the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Sunday in a Facebook post.
The Brits have announced that they're giving Ukraine multiple launch rocket systems with a slightly longer range than the ones Biden has approved (they extend targeting range by about 10% over our missiles).
Putin appears to be getting nervous. He has threatened to attack new targets if long range missiles are sent to Ukraine.
And, just in time to increase Putin's level of tension, the Ukrainians have decided to reverse course rather suddenly and put up a fight over Sievierodonetsk after all. (They were bound to make a stand some time--think of Gen. Sam Houston at the Battle of San Jacinto after the fall of the Alamo.) This may help make Gen. Alexander Dvornikov nervous as well.
"Wouldn't hurt even a little bit to back those bastards up some more." Fri Jun 03, 07:15 am ↑↑
Word is they've backed up their major warships south another 70 miles since Friday. (And added anti-aircraft weaponry to Snake Island, which won't sink if hit.)
And, just in time to increase Putin's level of tension, the Ukrainians have decided to reverse course rather suddenly and put up a fight over Sievierodonetsk after all.
Possibly they were waiting for something.
I suspect that Putin has forgotten the lesson of the rat.
Rick Scott seems to embody the two faced nature of Republicans.
In March 2018, then-Florida Gov. Rick Scott signed into law a piece of legislation that, among other things, raised the age at which individuals could legally buy firearms in the state to 21.
“If you look at the federal government, nothing seems to have happened there,” Scott said in signing the measure, which was prompted by the murder of 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, just weeks prior. “You go elect people, you expect them to represent you, get things done.”
Morning news suggests that the Russians have again begun making headway, albeit a slow and plodding advance, against the recently stiffened Ukrainian resistance in the Donbas. The Russians upped the level of medium-range bombardment, overwhelming the Ukrainians' increased defenses.
Gen. Alexander Dvornikov's got another four days on his original deadline to either drive the resistance out of Sievierodonetsk (unlikely in four days, turns out there's another set of underground warrens under that chemical plant the Russians shelled several days ago), or he can use that time to definitively isolate the Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk urban area from resupply and reinforcements. link
I'll be watchin' to see if he makes the deadline.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ Correction:
"Word is they've backed up their major warships south another 70 miles since Friday." Tue Jun 07, 10:42 am ↑↑
Backed them up to a 70 mile stand-off distance--70 miles in total--not another 70 miles. I misread it the first time.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ "One wonders if someday the people of Russia will be able to tune in to a hearing on the actions of Vladimir Putin?"
I'm beginning to wonder how long such opportunities will continue to be available to our heirs and children.
FoxNews, by the way, will not be televising the hearings. They'll start the day with counter-programming by Republican stalwarts, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, and Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, et al, etc. They may even get Republican Senate Leader Kevin McCarthy to appear. They'll finish against the evening summary hearings with a grand finale of prime-time counter-programming from their first-string propaganda lineup of Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and Tucker Carlson.
I'm beginning to wonder how long such opportunities will continue to be available to our heirs and children.
I worry about that as well.
I had hoped that these mass shootings would wake people up to the intransigence and out right selfishness of Republican elected officials and their supporters. But I do not hold out much hope. Russians aren't the only people susceptible to propaganda.
"The European Parliament recommended that Ukraine be granted candidate status for membership in the European Union, Ukraine’s prime minister, Denys Shmyhal, said on Twitter".
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ "The U.S. military has devised a plan to train a platoon of Ukrainian soldiers at a time on how to use sophisticated multiple-launch rocket artillery, the Pentagon’s top general said Wednesday…. WashingtonPost
I've been waiting eagerly to hear that. It'll take about three weeks to fully train up each successive 'class' of Ukrainian artillery men on the American rocket systems. (At least, that's the estimate to start.) Then we can start moving in more of the rocket launchers for Ukrainian use. So far we haven't moved in enough to make a significant difference on the battlefield. But, sending in stuff they can't use isn't much help either.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ Gen. Alexander Dvornikov's got another three days on his original deadline to either definitively isolate the Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk urban area or drive the Ukrainian resistance out of Sievierodonetsk itself.
I've been waiting eagerly to hear that. It'll take about three weeks to fully train up each successive 'class' of Ukrainian artillery men on the American rocket systems.
I think they have already started that. But I worry they won't be ready in time, before Ukraine loses more of its fighters.
On another note, apparently there is a grocery store in Russia that is enclosing the butter for sale in little plastic boxes to prevent shop lifting. Kind of odd, that. Now we have Walmart here that has put perfume and the more expensive facial creams in plastic cases, but I have never seen food under "lock and key" like that.
Yes, I think they'd already started training Ukrainians, but it was specific crews who'd get assigned to known launchers. This is the first 'general class' who'll come out already ready for the more launchers yet to be delivered.
I watched most of the first public Jan. 6th hearing. I missed just a little when I had to move my sprinkler.
Three things were news to me. The first was the documentary that the British filmmaker was making during this episode and his covering of the Proud Boys movements. The second was the fact that a number of Republican congressman were requesting pardons from Trump for whatever their actions were during this event. The third was the number of Trump insiders that came right out and warned him that he was going to lose the election.
I realize that the people who should be watching these hearings won't. They are still too mired in the delusion that Trump created about the election being stolen to listen. They won't believe anything, even what is staring them in the face. But I do think the first hearing was presented well and was an important historical record.
"…a number of Republican congressman were requesting pardons from Trump…."
That one was news to me as well. That one might have actually cost a Republican congressman or two their seat in Congress if there were still time. (Which there ain't.) Trumpkins disapprove of their Representatives seeking pardons for supporting Trump, and there are too many untainted wanna-be Trumpkin Congressmen available to vote for. So this revelation might have bitten one or two of them in their Trumpkan/Republican primaries if there were still time to weaponize the info when the names came out--insufficient bravery in support of the cause and all that.
"They are still too mired in the delusion that Trump created about the election being stolen…"
Not really. Mostly they know that's bullshit; just as Trump knew it was bullshit. But they think they need a cover story. They been making up faerie tale histories so long (since Ronald Reagan dreamed up 'supply side' economics out of whole cloth in his own head) they've come to believe they need cover stories. (And it is some comfort to have something to hide behind when their children and their neighbors start to howl at them for being such blatant hypocrites.) So they pretend to believe that one. (Also pretending to believe something so clearly unbelievable is an important marker of their loyalty to the tribe.)
I will, however, go along with the 'important historical record' part.
And, for some reason I thought last night's hearing was gonna be three hours rather than just the two.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯ An aide to President Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine is now losing up to 200 fighters a day. And President Putin has compared himself to Peter the Great in an interview with the BBC. (Apparently feelin' good 'bout how the "grind 'em down" strategy is working for him these last few days.)
The Ukrainians still hold the tunnels and bomb shelters and warrens under the chemical plan in Sievierodonetsk. And they still hold the Lysychansk-Bakhmut road (and the bridge over the river to Sievierodonetsk). However, the Russians have the last few miles of the road and the bridge dialed in on their artillery. So, while the Ukrainians may still have the access, it's a deathtrap to try to use it.
The next hearing is set for Monday morning, 10:00 eastern time. I was hoping it would be in the evening again. Hopefully they will have a replay I can watch later.
Yes, Ukrainian losses are horrible. They are in a really tough situation. I wish we could send in troops to help.
The pro-Russian Ukrainians in the Donbass have put two Brits and a Morrocan who have been living in Ukraine for years and have been fighting for Ukraine on trial. They have convicted them and sentenced them to death.
Russian losses seem to be significantly higher. (The Russians aren't saying (not saying anything credible anyway, and the Ukrainian provided numbers are likewise of somewhat dubious credibility), but all credible estimates are for significantly higher losses for the Russians.)
Word's going out that Ukraine is running low on Soviet era ammunition for its artillery. And not enough NATO era western weapons have come in yet, much less ammo for same (nor have they been trained to use all that has come in). Not all is bad news however. A Ukrainian insurgency is organizing in Russian-held Ukraine, making connection with the Ukrainian military outside, and scouting and targeting for special-ops and artillery strikes against targets that the Ukrainian military could not hope to engage without the local underground assistance. More of this would be good. But, an ability to also go toe-to-toe with Putin's artillery when the occasion presents itself would be preferable to relying on these insurgency assets and tactics.
The 'good news' part of this story is that the insurgency will still be there, and probably getting stronger every day, when the ammunition shortage gets solved.
(Meanwhile, Russia seems to be running low on high precision ammo. This is not necessarily a good thing as the Russians merely fall back to 'saturation bombing' with low precision Soviet era ammo, of which they have plenty.)
The Russians have destroyed a sports complex known as the 'Ice Palace' in Sievierodonetsk which had been serving as a makeshift relief center for those still hiding in the rubble of the now ruined city.
A Ukrainian insurgency is organizing in Russian-held Ukraine, making connection with the Ukrainian military outside, and scouting and targeting for special-ops and artillery strikes against targets that the Ukrainian military could not hope to engage without the local underground assistance.
Good news, indeed. And it appears that Ukrainian special forces are hard at work in Sievierodonets as well, attending a meeting of Russian military officials.
Russian losses seem to be significantly higher.
Last number I heard was 32,000 to date. But, of course, there is no confirmation.
Meanwhile, Russia seems to be running low on high precision ammo.
They seem to be resorting to some rather odd bombs. The kind you just release from a drone, but have no guidance. The one in the video I saw missed the Ukrainian trench by a mile. If only they could all miss.
I believe that's the number the Ukrainian government's been putting out there. I remain dubious of the accuracy of the claims from Kyiv about Russian casualties. (Probably closer to the real count than the Russian numbers though.)
55 comments:
From the last thread…
"…maybe the Ukrainians should be busy elsewhere?"
The Ukrainians began their counter-attack in the south on Saturday morning (Friday night our time), and they publicly announced that offensive within a few hours of launching it (maybe within a few minutes). Their opening efforts are currently centered around the southern city of Kherson, which they very well may take back from the Russians within the foreseeable future (contrary to the more pessimistic expectations of our own military analysts), and they're including nearby towns, like Melitopol, which is also under Russian managment.
I suspect you knew of this initiative already.
And, further north… The Russians have turned up the heat in their 'slow and plodding' advance into the Ukrainian Donbas region. They seem to want to take control of the entirety of their claimed 'independent' Ukrainian provinces as soon as possible. (Rumors that they may anticipate a supply chain collapse coming soon.) They seem to be throwing all the artillery they have in as fast and hard as they can throw throw explosives. If it works they will soon be sole holders of more piles of rubble. (Most of the population having fled already.)
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The E.U. has supposedly finalized an agreement to ban Russian oil imports. It was necessary to include a provision in the agreement to the effect that the banning of Russian oil imports would not apply to those members of the E.U. who didn't want to ban Russian oil imports (thus making the supposed 'ban' optional, entirely voluntary). But, once they all agreed that the newly amended agreement didn't actually ban any Russian oil imports, in spite of what they called it, they had the skids greased for its final passage. (They also have perfected and will apply another dodge wherein they all agree that the conversion of Euros to Russian Rubles and then the subsequent of purchase Russian oil with those Rubles means they aren't really purchasing Russian oil after all. It's not clear how this dodge supposedly justifies its claims, but they don't intend to answer further questions about that anyway. Euroweenie-ism at its most profound there.)
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Putin and Recep Erdoğan talked on the phone yesterday and agreed in principal to the "unimpeded cargo shipping" of Ukrainian grain and Russian fertilizers out of the Black Sea "in coordination with Turkish partners". Maybe Erdoğan will have to adopt a more lavish lifestyle, maybe buy one of those Russian mega-yachts to put his new found partnership funds to full use. The Russians should be able to offer him a real deal on one of those.
I suspect you knew of this initiative already.
Yes, and I hope it is successful. It would be a good start...
Putin and Recep Erdoğan talked on the phone yesterday...
Not really a good thing, despite what one might think. Putin will grab as much territory as he can and then use Erdogan as a go between to talk ceasefire. They will try to consolidate what they have snatched and then in time will go for more.
If possible it would be better to keep the Russians scrambling.
I noticed a Russian ship was making use of the opened port at Mariupol. I don't know what the cargo was, but if it was military it would have been a good target, if possible.
Speaking of Mariupol, I was rather surprised that there were apparently no booby traps left behind. But maybe that was part of the agreement, which the Russians seem to be breaking. At least I have not noticed any soldiers from Mariupol finding their way home via prisoner swap.
Biden has said he will not send any long range ammo for the MLRS system to Ukraine. Hopefully there is a work around.
"… and then use Erdogan as a go between to talk ceasefire."
Putin doesn't need Erdoğan for that. There's no reason for him to pay Erdoğan for that. Putin's got the Euroweenies to push his ceasefire for him. (I suspect that's behind Putin's rush to grab as much of the Donbas as fast as he can--soon as the tide turns against him Putin's gonna start demanding a cease-fire-in-place, leaving him with land he grabbed.) The Euroweenies will be more than eager to push that 'solution' on Ukraine. And they won't charge Putin a damn thing for it; they'll do it for free. Erdoğan would make Putin pay something.
As it is now, Russia's agreed to pay Turkish 'partners' for passage through the Straights so Russia can then sell the stolen Ukrainian grain (in 'partnership' with those Turkish profiteers). I'm bettin' Erdoğan's charging a stiff premium for that too.
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"Biden has said he will not send any long range ammo for the
MLRS system to Ukraine."
I would have had Biden couple that with a demand that Russia also forswear the use of long range ammo in their launchers. Make the Russians do their shooting from within Ukrainian territory, so the Ukrainians can shoot back. (Also, demand the Russians quit sending up aircraft from bases outside Ukrainian territory. Gotta base 'em in Ukraine to use 'em in Ukraine--same rules for both sides.) The Russians would never agree, of course, but the demands would already be out there in case we want to press the questions later for some reason.
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'Plan C'
Two weeks ago we were still considering the implementation of Putin's 'Plan B'--the encirclement of the forward elements of Ukraine's armed forces in the Donbas region. The Russians were attempting a double pincer movement with Russian troops surrounding the Ukrainians, coming in around them from the north and from the south. We did not know that The Plan had already been abandoned.
Been two weeks and we've seen that plan has indeed been abandoned in favor of a 'pound the ground' artillery barrage that progressively levels everything in its path, leaving the Ukrainians with nothing to defend except piles of rubble mostly emptied of citizens (save hard-headed holdouts ain't got the sense to move along when the time has clearly come--the usual inexplicable 10%). The follow up to the slow destruction of all within their field of view is a subsequent Russian infantry advance to claim dominion of the destroyed terrain and the piles of rubble.
Clearly the Russians have given up on that grand pincer movement they once had in mind and are now committed to this new plan, 'Plan C' (have been committed to it visibly for over a week now).
And the new plan is Putin to the core. And nobody's seen the new Russian Field Marshal, Gen. Aleksandr Dvornikov, the notorious 'Butcher of Syria' for that entire two weeks. He's gone even more invisible than Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had become by mid-April (before being trotted out to occasionally perform unpleasant interim tasks).
And, for what is at least the third consecutive day, Russian forces are on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, a major 'hub' for transportation in northeastern Ukraine's Luhansk Oblast. (Sievierodonetsk sits about centered north to south, on the western edge of the Luhansk territory.)
Unfortunately the West seems to be hoping that the sanctions would crimp the Kremlin's ability to wage a long range war. Maybe, maybe not, but that is a long term "solution" and Ukraine needs some short term help.
Although it does seem as if some Russians believe that there will be issues with repairs for certain critical infrastructure in the future as they have been making enquiries of non NATO countries with regard to parts.
The Russians are making more strident claims that by sending weapons to Ukraine the West is just prolonging the war. Same could be said for the Russians. All they would have to do is withdraw and the war would end. The Ukrainians are not interested in acquiring territory from Russia.
Very simple.
Off topic: It seems an inordinate number of innocent people (very surprised and terrified innocent people I might add) have died over the Memorial Day Weekend while lighting the shadows of right-wing America's imagined unfettered 'right' to possess and use assault weapons on the public streets and private campuses of this country.
And it's been a looonnngg weekend with new victims of Americas' supposed 'right' to brandishment of assault weapons on the street collecting into Wednesday. (So far.)
"‛The unfortunate conclusion to draw is that we in the West
are telling Russia, ‘It’s OK for you to shoot from Belarus into
Ukraine. It’s OK for you to shoot from Russia,’ ’ General
Breedlove said at a virtual security event.
"‛‘But it is not OK for Ukraine to shoot back into Russia.’ ’
"The fact of the matter is that Mr. Zelensky had little choice
but to accept the restrictions that Mr. Biden has insisted upon.
He needs the American weaponry — and similar equipment
provided by the British — if he is to have any hope of repelling
Russia, currently making small, daily progress in the Donbas.
"Ukraine is ‛constantly reassessing what their requirements
are, based on events on the ground, based on changes to the
Russian approach,’ Julianne Smith, the U.S. ambassador to
NATO, told the Defense Writers Group on Wednesday.
"But Ms. Smith said the U.S. and the alliance has been clear
that NATO will not become a party to the conflict, the U.S. will
not send forces to Ukraine and the administration will not
support Ukraine with equipment to attack Russia."
"‛While the pieces of equipment have evolved and changed
over the last couple of months, I think the parameters have
remained relatively clear and I don’t expect those to change,’
she said.
"In anticipation of the decision that President Biden
announced on Tuesday, the Defense Department moved the
rocket systems it will provide to Ukraine from the United
States to Europe. It will still take about three weeks for
Ukrainian soldiers to learn how to operate and maintain the
systems, a top Pentagon official said.
"Mr. Kahl deflected questions of whether even the condensed
training course at an undisclosed location in Europe would
take too long for the rocket systems to play a meaningful role
in the war.
"‛The Ukrainians have proven time and time again to be
extraordinarily ingenious, and quick learners,’ he said."
NewYorkTimes
And, for what is at least the fourth consecutive day, Russian forces are on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk.
It seems an inordinate number of innocent people (very surprised and terrified innocent people I might add) have died...
The latest being in Tulsa at a medical facility.
I would tell people...it's an election year...vote! And vote out the people who are dragging their feet on gun control.
"‛The unfortunate conclusion to draw is that we in the West
are telling Russia, ‘It’s OK for you to shoot from Belarus into
Ukraine. It’s OK for you to shoot from Russia,’ ’ General
Breedlove said at a virtual security event.
"‛‘But it is not OK for Ukraine to shoot back into Russia.’ ’
Indeed. I would guess that if someone were shooting missiles into our country from outside we would be going after them at their place of origin.
Ukraine is a big country. I would think that long range shells could be fired within its territory without hitting Russia. So we are not giving them something that would necessarily be used outside. Also, as someone pointed out, it is possible to stand at the border of Ukraine & Russia and fire into Russia with short range ammo. Or drones.
"… we would be going after them at their place of origin."
Yeah, well, I guess the question of Russians making war against Ukraine from sites predominately outside of Ukraine can be addressed later, when and if it happens and if it actually matters by that time. If the Ukrainians can chase the Russians back across the borders and the Russians are still trying to fire on them from safe haven in Russia that'll be due time to tell Biden that his pronouncements on this subject need to be lifted.
I suspect the real problem will eventually involve Euroweenie demands that the Ukrainians agree to a cease-fire while the Russians are still holding Ukrainian territory in the Donbas and across the southern shore. (I expect Putin to start demanding a cease fire as soon as the tide of battle turns against his soldiers and they start losing their recently acquired ground back to the Ukrainians once again. And then the Euroweenies will want the Ukrainians to comply with Russian demands and stand down, leaving Putin with his winnings.)
For right now Biden's decree serves to somewhat placate the Euroweenies, and they already need some placating. We'll havta deal with them bein' weenies when the time comes it matters.
"… long range shells could be fired within its territory without
hitting Russia…"
Long range missiles could be fired south to hit Russian warships.
Wouldn't hurt even a little bit to back those bastards up some more.
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But, for right now, I think I want to point out a significant problem inherent in Putin's 'Plan C':
He's relying on the support of a significant number of 'foreign' troops. A noticeable percentage of his current fighters in the Donbas fight have been gathered up from the local warlords' forces. A significant further few of them are 'contract' fighters (Wagner Group soldiers and others--Chechens etc.). These guys signed on for a fight where they had their opposing forces significantly outgunned and where they enjoyed the advantage of modern Russian air and artillery cover going up against the Ukrainians' Soviet era artillery in resistance. There's gonna be some significant increase in the Russians' morale problems as the Ukrainians bring to bear comparable, or even superior, artillery support in a war that Putin has designed to be fought under the umbrella of superior artillery power (i.e. superior Russian artillery power.). Them guys could barely move the Ukrainians back when they had the significant advantage--they gonna be much displeased with the idea of going into battle where the advantage has been reversed. (May not agree to go forward when called upon; may not even agree to hang ‛round--making victory via Euroweenie a much more important part of Putin's war plans going forward.)
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And…. For the fifth consecutive day, Russian forces are (were?) on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk.
Nevertheless, President Zelenskyy has recently touted 'some success' by the Ukrainian forces resisting the invaders in and around that city.
(Also, Zelenskyy did make special mention in his most recent nightly broadcast that the Russians had sent in native Ukrainian fighters loyal to the breakaway warlords' of the Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts as their front line cannon fodder in the initial attack on Sievierodonetsk--burning them up until they stabilized enough ground to send in Wagner Group and other 'contract' fighters. But, now, as of this morning, it looks like the Ukrainian counter-attack has begun around Sievierodonetsk as well as in the southern regions--the Russian 'contract' fighters might be in for a few hard nights up there after all.)
And now, after the Russians spent five consecutive days on the verge of seizing uncontested control of the battered ruins that were once the Ukrainian city of Sievierodonetsk, they are now enduring a serious come-back by Ukraine forces contesting for possession of those very same ruins.
The Russians never did put it away and now it seems to be slippin' 'way from them already.
This article tends to agree with the assessment that PUtin is having problems finding people in his military willing to fight.
But even if the Russian army in the Donbass is eating its way forward in small steps, Putin's commanders still have to contend with considerable problems: For example, mobilizing enough troops and replacing the worn-out soldiers with new ones. The ISW cites the spokesman for the Ukrainian military administration in the city of Odessa, Maksym Marchenko.
Russia's army can't get its 40 percent problem under control
According to Marchenko, 30 to 40 percent of the exchanged Russian soldiers would refuse to return to the front. As a result, Russian commanders would be forced to send unprepared and unmotivated units back into combat. One reason for the miserable morale is still the often poor supply of food and medicine, the ISW briefing goes on to say.
I would think another reason they would not be anxious to go back is if they are being treated to a similar kind of bombardment from artillery that the Ukrainians have been seeing. Maybe we are seeing a little of that in their pulling back in Sievierodonetsk.
Btw, if you do click on my link, the original article is in German. You will have to do a translation to English. It is usually an option if you right click on the article.
Long range missiles could be fired south to hit Russian warships.
Wouldn't hurt even a little bit to back those bastards up some more.
Good idea. Sometimes it does pay to get creative.
A small change of topic.
Apparently, according to my brother, the Holiday gas stations here have reworked their gas pumps to supply gasoline cut with 15% ethanol for the lowest cost choice. This is 5% more than Biden was advising, which could be detrimental to older cars' engines (like mine). They still have a higher octane choice with no ethanol, at a higher price. Speculation is that they are doing this to make up for the money they lose by accepting Cub Rewards cards. These cards give you x number of cents off your price per gallon depending how much you have accumulated by your grocery purchase. Many people, like me, wait until we accumulate at least 30 cents and then cash them in at the pump.
"Maybe we are seeing a little of that in their pulling back in
Sievierodonetsk."
Something very strange manifesting itself in Sievierodonetsk. The Ukrainians made the decision that they'd done about all the damage they could do to the Russian forces, and began to pull back. Figuring to surrender the rest of the rubble to the Russians (pretty much nothing left there to defend anyway according to Ukrainian lights). Figured to take back the crossroads later, with less loss of Ukrainian soldiers than they'd have suffered trying to wait out the bombardment in place. Then the Russian soldiers who were left began to withdraw from all contacts with Ukrainian soldiers. Ukrainians would fire a few shots--Russians would flee.
Next thing they knew they were retaking ground they'd been intending to surrender to the bombardment--which so far hasn't come.
I'm keeping an eye on that; it's weird. And nobody's talking 'bout it.
"I'm keeping an eye on that; it's weird."
I may have found an answer. The Ukrainian forces had moved up some heavy artillery to greet the incoming Russians even as the Ukrainians were moving their own soldiers back out of the firing line. NewYorkTimes Looks like the Russians didn't want any of that.
Lyschansk sits on higher ground than Sievierodonetsk. The Ukrainians set a trap.
I suspect the Ukrainians have plans and are just waiting for the right weapons to arrive.
Putin has decided that his own preferred 'grind them down' style of war against the Ukrainian civilian population is gonna be a winner for him on account of he thinks he can count on the Euroweenies bein' Euroweenies in the end and he's expecting them to force Ukraine's surrender when he finally gets around to asking for a cease-fire. WashingtonPost
He may be right. But then again, maybe not this time. We shall have to wait and see.
In the interim, the Russians have run into a suddenly stiffened resistance in and around Lyschansk/Sievierodonetsk. And they're having to give back ground there (and across the eastern front).
Local resistance is moving the Russians back a little in the Kherson vicinity as well.
Could be the high water mark of Russian territorial acquisition will never reach a level that Putin can sell back home as a 'victory' for Russia. This would make it harder for him to start calling for a cease-fire that leaves him in control of enough Ukrainian territory to make salable story of glorious Russioan victory back home in Moscow and St. Petersburg.
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Moving on a little bit…
"…waiting for the right weapons to arrive…"
Originally I was kinda sceptical of the utility of sending Soviet era MIGs to Ukraine. I thought we should send things the Ukrainians could put to more immediate use, and the situation on the ground there just didn't seem to call for a lot of offensive air cover (their demands for help to 'close the skies' notwithstanding). They weren't even putting combat hours on the airplanes they had. (Russian fighters tended to go up top--fire maybe once--often from still inside Russia--and then get back down before a Ukrainian response could locate and threaten the Russian plane. They're still inclined to follow that model.) But, Putin's since then sidelined his top generals and imposed a personal favorite 'grind them down' style of artillery and air barrage warfare. Plus he's increasingly sending in close air support for his ground war (often in the form of spotters who drop flares to mark a target for follow up artillery barrages).
When the situation changes, I can change with it.
All of which goes to say that I'm beginning to think it's time to rethink sending fighter planes to Ukraine. I'm not committed to that being a good idea just yet, but I'm rethinking it. May be 'bout time for that now.
(One of the principle distinctions between more fighter planes and long range guided missiles is that the Ukrainians already have MIG fighter planes and the Euroweenies would be less bent 'bout seeing more. And long range missiles/rockets on the Ukrainian fighters would merely match (one hopes overmatch) the air-to-ground missiles the Russians are already using. Again, less fuss from the Euroweenies. Also, it might be easier to start sliding them across the border to the Ukrainians without a lot of notice to the media, or by the media--again generating less fuss from the Euroweenies.)
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And, while most eyes were elsewhere… It looks like the Ukrainians may have largely destroyed a large Russian army unit in the forests around Izium (~50-60,000 population east of Kharkiv) NYT Russian army went into the woods; never come out again. That's not gonna be good for Russian morale, word of that gets around.
That's not gonna be good for Russian morale, word of that gets around.
I suspect that there are young, and not so young, men in Russia who are making plans to avoid a draft, if one were to be called for.
It looks like the Ukrainians may have largely destroyed a large Russian army unit in the forests around Izium...
A little cut here...a little cut there...it may come down to who wants Ukraine more...the Russians or the Ukrainians.
And the Ukrainians seem very determined.
It looks like the Ukrainians may have largely destroyed a large Russian army unit in the forests around Izium..
A little cut here...a little cut there...and it may come down to who wants Ukraine more, the Russians or the Ukrainians. Who is willing to sacrifice all?
The Ukrainians are very determined and the people of Russia are not so clued in to what they will have to sacrifice...yet.
Lyschansk
I misspelled that.
That should be Lysy chansk.
*sigh*
With no space.
"The Kremlin has given the commander of Russian troops in
Ukraine, General Alexander Dvornikov a deadline to seize
Severodonetsk in Luhansk Oblast, according to the head of
the Luhansk regional military administration Serhiy Hayday."
NewVoiceofUkraine
(The body of the article suggests that Dvornikov has an 'out'. Merely 'surrounding' the Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk urban area and cutting off the last open connection to the outside world, definitively isolating the dual cities, as was done in Mariupol will be considered sufficient.)
Reckon General Dvornikov is still glad he took that job?
The Brits have announced that they're giving Ukraine multiple launch rocket systems with a slightly longer range than the ones Biden has approved (they extend targeting range by about 10% over our missiles).
Rare move: Russian media (Putin's media) has confirmed the death of another Russian general. They don't usually confirm, but did this time. Maj. Gen. Roman Kutuzov was killed in fighting in eastern Ukraine. Major General, that's two-star.
Ukraine has confirmed his death as well:
"Major General Roman Kutuzov, Commander of the 1st Army Corps (Orcs) of the [DPR], has been officially denazified and demilitarized,” the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Sunday in a Facebook post.
The Brits have announced that they're giving Ukraine multiple launch rocket systems with a slightly longer range than the ones Biden has approved (they extend targeting range by about 10% over our missiles).
Putin appears to be getting nervous. He has threatened to attack new targets if long range missiles are sent to Ukraine.
"Putin appears to be getting nervous."
I been gettin' the same impression.
And, just in time to increase Putin's level of tension, the Ukrainians have decided to reverse course rather suddenly and put up a fight over Sievierodonetsk after all. (They were bound to make a stand some time--think of Gen. Sam Houston at the Battle of San Jacinto after the fall of the Alamo.) This may help make Gen. Alexander Dvornikov nervous as well.
"Wouldn't hurt even a little bit to back those bastards up some more."
Fri Jun 03, 07:15 am ↑↑
Word is they've backed up their major warships south another 70 miles since Friday. (And added anti-aircraft weaponry to Snake Island, which won't sink if hit.)
And, just in time to increase Putin's level of tension, the Ukrainians have decided to reverse course rather suddenly and put up a fight over Sievierodonetsk after all.
Possibly they were waiting for something.
I suspect that Putin has forgotten the lesson of the rat.
Rick Scott seems to embody the two faced nature of Republicans.
In March 2018, then-Florida Gov. Rick Scott signed into law a piece of legislation that, among other things, raised the age at which individuals could legally buy firearms in the state to 21.
“If you look at the federal government, nothing seems to have happened there,” Scott said in signing the measure, which was prompted by the murder of 17 people at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, just weeks prior. “You go elect people, you expect them to represent you, get things done.”
Seems he's singing a different tune now.
I will be tuning in to the public hearing of the Jan. 6th commission on Thursday.
One wonders if someday the people of Russia will be able to tune in to a hearing on the actions of Vladimir Putin?
Morning news suggests that the Russians have again begun making headway, albeit a slow and plodding advance, against the recently stiffened Ukrainian resistance in the Donbas. The Russians upped the level of medium-range bombardment, overwhelming the Ukrainians' increased defenses.
Gen. Alexander Dvornikov's got another four days on his original deadline to either drive the resistance out of Sievierodonetsk (unlikely in four days, turns out there's another set of underground warrens under that chemical plant the Russians shelled several days ago), or he can use that time to definitively isolate the Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk urban area from resupply and reinforcements. link
I'll be watchin' to see if he makes the deadline.
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Correction:
"Word is they've backed up their major warships south
another 70 miles since Friday."
Tue Jun 07, 10:42 am ↑↑
Backed them up to a 70 mile stand-off distance--70 miles in total--not another 70 miles. I misread it the first time.
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"One wonders if someday the people of Russia will be able to
tune in to a hearing on the actions of Vladimir Putin?"
I'm beginning to wonder how long such opportunities will continue to be available to our heirs and children.
FoxNews, by the way, will not be televising the hearings. They'll start the day with counter-programming by Republican stalwarts, House GOP Conference Chair Elise Stefanik, House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, and Reps. Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, et al, etc. They may even get Republican Senate Leader Kevin McCarthy to appear. They'll finish against the evening summary hearings with a grand finale of prime-time counter-programming from their first-string propaganda lineup of Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, and Tucker Carlson.
"They may even get Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy to appear."
Kevin McCarthy is not Mitch McConnell.
I'm beginning to wonder how long such opportunities will continue to be available to our heirs and children.
I worry about that as well.
I had hoped that these mass shootings would wake people up to the intransigence and out right selfishness of Republican elected officials and their supporters. But I do not hold out much hope. Russians aren't the only people susceptible to propaganda.
"The European Parliament recommended that Ukraine be granted
candidate status for membership in the European Union, Ukraine’s prime
minister, Denys Shmyhal, said on Twitter".
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"The U.S. military has devised a plan to train a platoon of Ukrainian
soldiers at a time on how to use sophisticated multiple-launch rocket
artillery, the Pentagon’s top general said Wednesday….
WashingtonPost
I've been waiting eagerly to hear that. It'll take about three weeks to fully train up each successive 'class' of Ukrainian artillery men on the American rocket systems. (At least, that's the estimate to start.) Then we can start moving in more of the rocket launchers for Ukrainian use. So far we haven't moved in enough to make a significant difference on the battlefield. But, sending in stuff they can't use isn't much help either.
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Gen. Alexander Dvornikov's got another three days on his original deadline to either definitively isolate the Lysychansk/Sievierodonetsk urban area or drive the Ukrainian resistance out of Sievierodonetsk itself.
I've been waiting eagerly to hear that. It'll take about three weeks to fully train up each successive 'class' of Ukrainian artillery men on the American rocket systems.
I think they have already started that. But I worry they won't be ready in time, before Ukraine loses more of its fighters.
On another note, apparently there is a grocery store in Russia that is enclosing the butter for sale in little plastic boxes to prevent shop lifting. Kind of odd, that. Now we have Walmart here that has put perfume and the more expensive facial creams in plastic cases, but I have never seen food under "lock and key" like that.
"I think they have already started that."
Yes, I think they'd already started training Ukrainians, but it was specific crews who'd get assigned to known launchers. This is the first 'general class' who'll come out already ready for the more launchers yet to be delivered.
I watched most of the first public Jan. 6th hearing. I missed just a little when I had to move my sprinkler.
Three things were news to me. The first was the documentary that the British filmmaker was making during this episode and his covering of the Proud Boys movements. The second was the fact that a number of Republican congressman were requesting pardons from Trump for whatever their actions were during this event. The third was the number of Trump insiders that came right out and warned him that he was going to lose the election.
I realize that the people who should be watching these hearings won't. They are still too mired in the delusion that Trump created about the election being stolen to listen. They won't believe anything, even what is staring them in the face. But I do think the first hearing was presented well and was an important historical record.
"…a number of Republican congressman were requesting
pardons from Trump…."
That one was news to me as well. That one might have actually cost a Republican congressman or two their seat in Congress if there were still time. (Which there ain't.) Trumpkins disapprove of their Representatives seeking pardons for supporting Trump, and there are too many untainted wanna-be Trumpkin Congressmen available to vote for. So this revelation might have bitten one or two of them in their Trumpkan/Republican primaries if there were still time to weaponize the info when the names came out--insufficient bravery in support of the cause and all that.
"They are still too mired in the delusion that Trump created
about the election being stolen…"
Not really. Mostly they know that's bullshit; just as Trump knew it was bullshit. But they think they need a cover story. They been making up faerie tale histories so long (since Ronald Reagan dreamed up 'supply side' economics out of whole cloth in his own head) they've come to believe they need cover stories. (And it is some comfort to have something to hide behind when their children and their neighbors start to howl at them for being such blatant hypocrites.) So they pretend to believe that one. (Also pretending to believe something so clearly unbelievable is an important marker of their loyalty to the tribe.)
I will, however, go along with the 'important historical record' part.
And, for some reason I thought last night's hearing was gonna be three hours rather than just the two.
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An aide to President Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine is now losing up to 200 fighters a day.
And President Putin has compared himself to Peter the Great in an interview with the BBC. (Apparently feelin' good 'bout how the "grind 'em down" strategy is working for him these last few days.)
The Ukrainians still hold the tunnels and bomb shelters and warrens under the chemical plan in Sievierodonetsk. And they still hold the Lysychansk-Bakhmut road (and the bridge over the river to Sievierodonetsk). However, the Russians have the last few miles of the road and the bridge dialed in on their artillery. So, while the Ukrainians may still have the access, it's a deathtrap to try to use it.
The next hearing is set for Monday morning, 10:00 eastern time. I was hoping it would be in the evening again. Hopefully they will have a replay I can watch later.
Yes, Ukrainian losses are horrible. They are in a really tough situation. I wish we could send in troops to help.
The pro-Russian Ukrainians in the Donbass have put two Brits and a Morrocan who have been living in Ukraine for years and have been fighting for Ukraine on trial. They have convicted them and sentenced them to death.
"Yes, Ukrainian losses are horrible."
Russian losses seem to be significantly higher. (The Russians aren't saying (not saying anything credible anyway, and the Ukrainian provided numbers are likewise of somewhat dubious credibility), but all credible estimates are for significantly higher losses for the Russians.)
Word's going out that Ukraine is running low on Soviet era ammunition for its artillery. And not enough NATO era western weapons have come in yet, much less ammo for same (nor have they been trained to use all that has come in).
Not all is bad news however. A Ukrainian insurgency is organizing in Russian-held Ukraine, making connection with the Ukrainian military outside, and scouting and targeting for special-ops and artillery strikes against targets that the Ukrainian military could not hope to engage without the local underground assistance. More of this would be good. But, an ability to also go toe-to-toe with Putin's artillery when the occasion presents itself would be preferable to relying on these insurgency assets and tactics.
The 'good news' part of this story is that the insurgency will still be there, and probably getting stronger every day, when the ammunition shortage gets solved.
(Meanwhile, Russia seems to be running low on high precision ammo. This is not necessarily a good thing as the Russians merely fall back to 'saturation bombing' with low precision Soviet era ammo, of which they have plenty.)
The Russians have destroyed a sports complex known as the 'Ice Palace' in Sievierodonetsk which had been serving as a makeshift relief center for those still hiding in the rubble of the now ruined city.
A Ukrainian insurgency is organizing in Russian-held Ukraine, making connection with the Ukrainian military outside, and scouting and targeting for special-ops and artillery strikes against targets that the Ukrainian military could not hope to engage without the local underground assistance.
Good news, indeed. And it appears that Ukrainian special forces are hard at work in Sievierodonets as well, attending a meeting of Russian military officials.
Russian losses seem to be significantly higher.
Last number I heard was 32,000 to date. But, of course, there is no confirmation.
Meanwhile, Russia seems to be running low on high precision ammo.
They seem to be resorting to some rather odd bombs. The kind you just release from a drone, but have no guidance. The one in the video I saw missed the Ukrainian trench by a mile. If only they could all miss.
"Last number I heard was 32,000 to date."
I believe that's the number the Ukrainian government's been putting out there. I remain dubious of the accuracy of the claims from Kyiv about Russian casualties. (Probably closer to the real count than the Russian numbers though.)
There is a fire at the Azot chemical plant. The Russians have been shelling it.
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