In my wanderings through comments sections attached to Ukraine war news I have come across two things that I think need to be addressed and so I am putting both in a post. The first is a belief and the second is a question. They are very much related.
I think like most Americans I have not really understood the make up of the Russian Federation. I found this rather informative video on some of the Republics that are part of it. If you read through the comments you may notice that I stole my title from one. Take a few minutes to view it, it is not long.
So that brings me to the belief that I keep running across. That is that there is no difference between the war in Iraq initiated by the US and the war in Ukraine initiated by Vladimir Putin. There is no doubt that war in and of itself brings death, injuries, destruction and ruined lives for so many. But there is one type of war that is so profoundly destructive that it destroys a people. That is the war of conquest to acquire territory, which in the process erases the identity of those who live there. When the United States invaded Iraq its purpose was not to make that country part of the United States. It never intended to erase Iraq's identity or its sovereignty. We never forced anyone in Iraq to acquire a US passport or to become a citizen of the US. That, however, is what Russia is doing to Ukraine. As far as Vladimir Putin is concerned Ukraine as a country doesn't exist, it is part of Russia.
I believe the majority of Ukrainians beg to differ. That leads me to the question I have seen posed in comments sections. What would victory mean for Ukraine? The implication is that if they were to force Russia to withdraw there would be such a large loss of life and infrastructure that the fight would not have been worth it. Especially if Russia were to use a tactical nuclear weapon. The answer to this question is actually quite simple. Victory for Ukrainians means keeping their identity. Lives cannot be brought back, but the future can be made possible for future generations.
The vision of Putin is one of empire. He will use any means to make his vision come true. We have seen his use of energy to blackmail Europe. We see the same in his theft of Ukraine's grain and his blockade of Ukraine's ports, at the expense of the poorer countries in the world, to try to force the West to lift sanctions.
The person who called the Russian Federation a prison of nations was spot on. Does the world really want to become vassal states of Putin's Russia?
Slava Ukraini!
91 comments:
"…that brings me to the belief that I keep running across.
That is that there is no difference between the war in Iraq
initiated by the US and the war in Ukraine initiated by
Vladimir Putin."
And you have been surprised by that belief?
Laying aside the widespread reliance on 'motivated belief' in the Third World (as in the northern 'European' world, although it's probably even more prevalent in the Third Word), there's another adage that also applies: "A difference which makes no difference is no difference."
The differences you press in the paragraph following that ↑↑ quote make no difference to the people who're so casually ignoring them. They're not relevant. The relevant factors for them are that white Europeans are getting mauled up there and they don't really give a damn, 'cause they still hold grudges against white Europeans in general. Bigger, stronger, white, European (culturally) countries are mauling weaker countries. That's what's relevant to them. That's pretty much all that's relevant to them. (Nope, I don't want to give those people 'asylum' here from their home grown political problems nor from their economic problems. I want them to stay where they are and not come here. At the very least I want them to not come here. They will bring those attitudes with them, and we don't need more of that. I am not against immigration per se, so long as we get to vet the immigrants, individually, first.)
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The Azov chemical plant has been burning for nigh onto 24 hours now--at a varying rate.
Yes, Azov. I misspelled that in the last comments section.
And you have been surprised by that belief?
No, not surprised.
I suspect different motivations for lumping the US and Russia together as invaders, depending on who is making the analogy.
Yes, for those in the Middle East or Africa the Russian invasion of Ukraine may seem like a comeuppance for the arrogant West. But it does and will affect them. We are starting to see some of those effects in those countries where food is in short supply.
And as climate change becomes worse those that hold the strings to the world's food supply will wield enormous power.
"Yes, for those in the Middle East or Africa…"
You leave out Latin America, which is equally supportive of Russia's assault against Ukraine. Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, et al., etc.
You also leave out the Far East, India especially, but Pakistan and China as well. And, of course, many lesser economies, and the East Asian Pacific (other than that portion conquered by Europeans like Australia and New Zealand).
You are certainly correct in noting that the shortage of staple foods will seriously, deleteriously effect "them". They will respond by purchasing Ukraine's stolen crops from the Russians without reservation, and more or less openly, depending on each country's internal politics and their tolerance level for overt hypocrisy. And they will be happy to get them at a discount because Russia needs to make the sales to fund its slaughter in Ukraine. And they will resent us for making that exchange difficult for them and for adopting an air of moral superiority about the whole thing. They will not like being looked down on and they will resent us for doing so and the fact that they are so clearly and openly subsidizing the slaughter of Ukraine will not make them resent us any less (whether openly or behind closed doors).
They will not despise the Russians. The Russians will be eager to sell them food and steel and fuel at a discount. They will like that. They will be eager to purchase these discounted goodies from the Russians.
They will instead despise us for looking down on them for willingly funding the Russians' slaughter in Ukraine. It will start with simple resentment and then it will turn sour from there.
Get used to that now and you won't be disappointed later.
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And…. While we're busy being self-righteous it might be well to note that the conquered native nations which have been subjugated by and drawn into the Russian Federation seem to be doing much better on average than our own conquered native nations.
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"And as climate change becomes worse those that hold the
strings to the world's food supply will wield enormous power."
Water! Ya last about a week without water.
They will not despise the Russians. The Russians will be eager to sell them food and steel and fuel at a discount. They will like that. They will be eager to purchase these discounted goodies from the Russians.
For some reason a Venus flytrap comes to mind. Not quite sure why...just a knee jerk reaction I guess.
While we're busy being self-righteous it might be well to note that the conquered native nations which have been subjugated by and drawn into the Russian Federation seem to be doing much better on average than our own conquered native nations.
I don't know about that. It appears that the Russian government has been doing quite well taking advantage of their natural resources. Our Native Americans (at least the ones in Minnesota with casinos) are doing quite well taking advantage of all of the suckers entering their doors. I really can't say about averages.
Water! Ya last about a week without water.
This is true. I believe other states have been hungrily eyeing our Great Lakes.
The first ship of Ukrainian corn has docked at a port in Spain. It is only a drop in the bucket, 18,000 tons. But better than nothing.
The Russians are in control of a good chunk of Severodonetsk. But there is still heavy street fighting with high casualties. The Ukrainians are trying to evacuate those sheltering in the chemical plant. The shelters there are not as good as in the Azovstal steel plant.
Meanwhile, the Jan. 6th commission is laying out a pretty decent picture of Trump's knowledge that he actually lost the election and decided to push the lie that he won anyway.
Bannon has threatened Merrick Garland with impeachment if he dares to indict Trump.
You may be right that we are no better than the Russians if we have people like Trump and Bannon in this country.
On another note. There is massive flooding in Yellowstone National Park, which is now closed.
Washed out road.
I watched the replay of the second Jan. 6 commission hearing. They are doing an amazing job of putting together the pieces. If our country holds together those hearings will be a hugely significant public record of what Trump tried to do.
Not just in trying to overturn a legitimate election but the massive rip off of his own supporters, raising $250 million.
"Our Native Americans…"
Name for me the capital city of even one 'Native American' nation.
"[He] decided to push the lie that he won anyway."
Indeed, they did a pretty fair job of establishing that it was his choice to promulgate what's become known as 'The Big Lie'. (Although I'm not sure flagging Guiliani for being boozed up served any significant purpose.)
Also did a pretty fair job of showing that he and certain of his select cronies have profited fiscally from promoting that lie to his dedicated Trumpkins. And clearly showed that they set up that 'cash-in' process early on as well.
(Like Hindi buying stolen Ukrainian grain, the dedicated Trumpkins will blame their discomfort over this revelation on the people who made them see that they'd been conned rather than blame Trump for conning them.)
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Speaking of grain: The Russians have taken to burning Ukrainian grain crops in the field where the opportunity presents itself and future Russian control of the grain is questionable.
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All the remaining bridges out of Sievierodonetsk have been destroyed by Russian artillery and rocket fire. Looks like Gen. Alexander Dvornikov took that deadline from Putin seriously. He either just made it, or just missed it (close enough to claim he made it) on the alternative demand (his 'out') that he definitively cut off Sievierodonetsk from further Ukrainian support and resupply. Didn't get the city unequivocally 'taken over', but did manage to achieve the lesser goal of getting it surrounded and cutting it off from the west side of the river.
Anybody's guess whether this gets him back in good graces with Putin.
Name for me the capital city of even one 'Native American' nation.
Some might argue Washington D.C.
(Although I'm not sure flagging Guiliani for being boozed up served any significant purpose.)
I thought that rather curious as well.
Also did a pretty fair job of showing that he and certain of his select cronies have profited fiscally from promoting that lie to his dedicated Trumpkins. And clearly showed that they set up that 'cash-in' process early on as well.
Yes. One big con to profit from.
The Russians have taken to burning Ukrainian grain crops in the field where the opportunity presents itself and future Russian control of the grain is questionable.
Doesn't surprise me. Slash and burn tactics.
All the remaining bridges out of Sievierodonetsk have been destroyed by Russian artillery and rocket fire.
*sigh* Not what I wanted to hear. But I would have hoped the Ukrainians would have planned for this possibility. Nobody wants a repeat of Mariupol.
Speaking of Russia, it seems they are bleeding millionaires quite copiously. Not a good sign when the money runs.
There is word out there that Alexei Navalny has been moved from the prison he was in. Questions as to why are leading to all sorts of speculation.
"Some might argue Washington D.C."
No.
"But I would have hoped the Ukrainians would have planned
for this possibility"
The bridges were effectively useless already. They'd been dialed in by Russian artillery and they had Russian spotters watching them, just waiting for idiots to try to make a run, try to beat a Russian 122 mm shell to the other side.
Bait. They were left up as bait for idiot Ukrainians. Gen. Dvornikov finally blew them to hell because his deadline had come and gone and he had to do something to try to placate Putin. Whether or not that will work remains to be seen.
Either way, Gen. Dvornikov had to sacrifice his recreational 'shoot the fools on the bridge' game.
"There is word out there that Alexei Navalny has been
moved…"
The do-gooders are busy with Russia's more current bloody exercises against Ukraine. Makes this a good time to make Navalny's life a little bit shorter and uglier, while the do-gooders' attentions are occupied with things a bit more consequential.
Makes this a good time to make Navalny's life a little bit shorter and uglier,...
From what I've read about the place he's been sent that about sums it up.
Two Americans have been reported missing and feared captured by Russian forces near Kharkiv. I was wondering when that would happen.
Ginni Thomas, wife of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas, was maintaining a correspondence with Trump campaign lawyer John Eastman (he of rather notorious name by now) in the days leading up to the Jan 6ᵗʰ insurrection.
WashingtonPost
TheHill
This one may have legs.
"Two Americans have been reported missing and feared captured by
Russian forces near Kharkiv."
Now Putin's gotta decide whether to have them sentenced to death like the Brits his people had already captured.
(It could also mean he maybe can let women's basketball star Brittney Griner go home and keep the two men as his replacement hostages. We'll have to wait and see how he processes this new information.)
“The West's supplies of new weapons to Ukraine are forcing DPR troops not to stop at the borders of the Donetsk Republic,” Denis Pushilin told Russian State Media RIA Novosti.
Yeah, right. These guys are such lying sacks of sh*t.
That might work with Russians who want to believe it. But those who know the truth aren't going to listen to that.
Do they really think all of those businesses that have left Russia were taking those kinds of losses just for fun? I read one commenter who said he wouldn't do business with the USSR and he won't do business with USSR2.
Now Putin's gotta decide whether to have them sentenced to death like the Brits his people had already captured.
I guess his decision will depend on which scenario would be the most useful to him.
Couple of things seem to be drawing into focus this morning regarding Putin's War against Ukraine.
First one is that Russia is making even more money off of its oil and gas exports than they were before the Atlantic Alliance slapped sanctions on them. The price hikes have more than offset Russia's loss of markets.
The second one is that Putin is throwing all Russia has by way of war capabilities into crushing Ukraine before the new weapons arrive for Ukraine's use. He wants this over soon.
But that's just half of 'the second one'. The other half is, throwing everything he's got available at Ukraine before they can get armed up on new artillery and rockets isn't working for him. His war machine is barely moving on the ground. This does not bode well for Putin's future.
I guess there is the third one: Third one would be that Putin doesn't share my dim view of his future. He thinks he's winning this one. (He's probably going to continue to think that well after it's clear to everybody else that he ain't winning this one. Hitler actually convinced himself that the D-Day landing in Normandy was good news for Nazi Germany. He was going to have the opportunity to crush the forces arrayed against him in the Western Front, and then be able to turn all his strength back into repelling the Russians. That's the way he saw it that day. Ain't the way it worked out.)
The problem with high oil prices is that eventually they go down via recession.
And the second problem is that if Europe does manage to wean itself off of Russian oil it will be permanent.
I think the war in Ukraine just sped up something that was going to happen
anyway.
The problem with dictators is that they start to believe their own propaganda.
It sounds like one of those Russian ships strayed a little too close to the coastline when is was trying to supply Snake Island. It is no more.
"…they start to believe their own propaganda."
Autocrats do not like to be challenged so they tend to fill up their subordinate positions with people who will reinforce their prior beliefs, not disabuse them of their errors. They populate their government advisor positions and their ministries with yes-men and toadies.
Then, come crunch time, they are surprised to find that their subordinates have been lying to them (as yes-men and toadies are wont to do), telling them that all the things they had done had been done well (the money had been well spent, the military morale was high, etc.) and all the things they still wanted to do were doable, when such was not the case and is not the case.
Surprise, surprise!!
(Sometimes takes awhile for reality to sink in.)
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"…one of those Russian ships strayed a little too close to the
coastline…"
Biden's agreed to send in more of our 'Harpoon' cruise missiles (truck mounted--quick to move). So, there'll be more of this stuff comin’ ‛round. Although, this hit may have been made by Brit made missiles or even by native Ukrainian 'Neptune' cruise missiles. That last one seems to me quite likely. The Russian flagship 'Moskva' was also hit by a brace of missiles just after the ship had been distracted by a Turkish made Bayraktar drone which then filmed the dual missile strike conducted in its wake. Same MO as with Friday's strike on the Russian supply ship.
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Changing topics, ostensibly: Trump seems a little disoriented by the Jan 6ᵗʰ hearings, not quite sure how to deal with 'em.
He's quite obviously pissed off at having them on-air, enraged may be a more apt description, and there being nothing he can do 'bout it. But FoxNews ain't quite settled on how to handle this situation and so he has no guide star for how he should react. (He's used to figuring out who he's supposed to be in public largely by watching FoxNews. And FoxNews mostly wants everybody to just ignore the Jan 6th hearings, but 'ignore me' ain't in Trump's repertoire, so he's havin' a hard time figurin' out who to be with this subject.)
The video of the missile strike shows 2 missiles hitting the ship. A classic double tap. Word is they were Harpoon missiles possbily suppled by Denmark.
Putin has returned to his practice of holding meetings from excessive distances across huge tables.
This is an official government photo of a recent meeting between Putin and select CEO's of Russian automotive companies. That's Putin on the far off side all by himself. I'd reckon him at a little over twenty feet from the nearest Russian auto executive.
I'm halfway through the 3rd hearing. It's a bit longer than the other 2.
I can see why Trump would be pissed. They really are laying out what is a multi-pronged approach to overturning the election. As someone said, Trump, his allies and his supporters are a clear and present danger to our democracy.
Any other person would be prosecuted.
That's Putin on the far off side all by himself.
Lol! That may prove to be rather prescient.
BusinessInsider (via MSN) confirms it was a brace of U.S. supplied Harpoon missiles that took out the Russian tug boat.
I've been trying to figure out why the Ukrainians appeared to reverse course in the western Donbas and put up a fight for the Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk urban area. They seemed to acknowledge they were almost certain to lose control of that area due to a shortage of rockets/artillery compared to what the Russians were throwing in there. And there was a very good chance they could win those areas back when that imbalance in firepower was finally corrected. So, why stand and fight there now?
Well, turns out that Putin's pig-headed is why. He's ruined "an entire Russian regiment" trying to take Sievierodonetsk and he still doesn't have possession. NYT The Ukrainians have bleed a lot as well, but they're making much more serious inroads against the Russian war machine. It's a battle of attrition and the Ukrainian government seems to have decided that their losses are worth the much more severe losses they've been inflicting on the Russians in that little patch of ground near the river. (The Ukrainian soldiers asked to bear that 'last full measure' may wish it had been decided otherwise, but such are the fortunes of war for infantry soldiers; it's always been that way.)
it was a brace of U.S. supplied Harpoon missiles that took out the Russian tug boat.
Perhaps that will be a partial answer to those who worried about what is happening to the weapons and ammo that is being sent to Ukraine.
I have always felt that all of those pieces of metal, formerly Russian tanks and such, was a hint.
The Ukrainians know they can't win a conventional war against Russia so they are using different tactics. They will try to bleed the Russians of men and equipment.
The Ukrainian military got stuck in the Azot chemical plant because of the civilians who refused to leave.
Chilling. That's the only word that comes to mind.
I just finished the 3rd Jan. 6 Commission hearing. Judge Luttig's commentary at the end was truly chilling. That we are still at risk from Trump and his allies even to this day is scary to say the least. That so many American's do not care to pay attention and even attempt to listen to the commission's findings is so disheartening. It is beyond stupidity it is criminal.
"The Ukrainians know they can't win a conventional war against Russia…"
The Ukrainians already beat the Russians twice in a 'conventional war'. They turned back Putin's 'Plan A', his blitzkrieg attack on the Ukrainian political center in Kyiv, and Kharkiv (where the Russians are now putting on a defensive stand to keep Ukrainian troops back from the border with Russia), and Chernihiv located between them (mostly important as a crossroads to the region). They clearly won that round. The Russians withdrew. Then the Russians went with a new 'Plan B' which involved a traditional military move called a "double pincer" that would encircle the Ukrainian forward troops in the Donbas. The idea was to trap them with flanking columns that would meet behind them well south of Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk. (The holdout forces in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol frustrated that plan, threatening the southern route by their very presence, along with lesser publicized but equally important resistance up north that cut behind the northern flanking route.) The Russians finally gave that up as well. The Ukrainians had won twice.
Now Putin's gone back to a semi-primitive war model 'Plan C'--straight up the middle--blast the target to rubble rather than conquer it, and then claim dominion of the rubble. This is WWI stuff. (And in the process he's cut back on his immediate goals, willing now to accept seizing only the Donbas and the southern coast for the time being.) But this is all he's got that they ain't got (yet), artillery supremacy. And yet, there's a damn good chance the Russians would have run out of steam before they ever got 'round to taking over the aspirational "Peoples' Republic of Donetsk" to the south of Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk, even without new artillery for Ukraine.
Give the Ukrainians a little time (and us a little time) and we can arm them up on old-fashioned artillery and theyll win this round as well. They'll take back the rubble of Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk, if for no other reason, to show the Russians they can do it.
"The Ukrainian military got stuck in the Azot chemical plant
because of the civilians who refused to leave."
Lot of places in occupied Ukraine where there's a residual Ukrainian population who refused to leave. I read about 'em all the time--tear jerker romance pieces that clutter up my news collections.
The Ukrainian military moves out anyway when the time comes; they've clearly demonstrated that much; they leave the civilians behind, don't allow themselves to 'get stuck' somewhere they didn't wanna be because of those holdout civilians. Azot was no different except the Ukrainian military decided to stay this time for military reasons that greatly exceeded the utility of a group of civilian holdouts.
"Judge Luttig's commentary at the end was truly chilling."
Don't have the same effect when I say it. Jan 6ᵗʰ was just their first try, not their last. I been sayin' that for a year now.
Hitler's first try at grabbing national power landed him in jail, from whence he wrote Mein Kampf. Lenin's first try landed him in jail too (in Germany, where he tried first--before Hitler's efforts there.) Francisco Franco's first try at grabbing power also failed, but he fell back to try again and the result was the Spanish Civil War in 1936, which he eventually won.
We can't even get Trump jailed over his first try. He's gonna try it again. (And if something intercedes and he ain't able to try it again, somebody smoother and smarter will try.).
"It is beyond stupidity it is criminal."
The Republican Party has been living in lies for forty years now, since Reagan was President and spun his lies into a second term as President. Since then they've been spinning up faerie tale histories to explain away historical realities and the historical path to our current reality. It hasn't destroyed the Republic yet, hasn't even been a serious threat, and many people have gotten used to the idea, come to see it as mostly harmless noise. In fact the Republican Party has been steadily shrinking its share of the popular vote. But, they've also been entrenching their minority's grip on the functional levers of power. And now's come the different time they've been working towards. This time they're playin' for keeps. But, a lot of folks can't see it's any different than it's always been for the last forty years.
They will be surprised.
This is why they stayed and fought at Sievierodonetsk.
"Russia is likely to seize the key eastern Ukrainian city of Severodonetsk
in the coming weeks, Western defense analysts say. But it comes at a
cost: The number of troops lost and equipment expended in that battle
will probably hinder Moscow’s ability to mount offensives elsewhere.
Other Russian operations in the east have made little headway in recent
weeks, according to U.S.-based analysts."
WaPo
Ukraine's second Alamo, to be remembered one day along with Mariupol.
WaPo: Ukraine rushed in more troops to keep access open to the Sievierodonetsk/Lysychansk urban area. They apparently now have 'thousands' of troops engaged in fighting in the street fighting in Sievierodonetsk.
(Have they begun their counter-attack I wonder. Seems early to me, but if they're already getting Harpoon anti-ship missiles set up down south they may also be getting competitive artillery making it into the Donbas; it's possible.)
The Ukrainians already beat the Russians twice in a 'conventional war'.
I certainly meant no offense to Ukraine which has fought very bravely and intelligently. I should have said they couldn't win against Russia in a conventional artillery war in open terrain. They didn't have the long range weaponry to beat the Russians. I did not say that would not change. They just had to buy time until it did.
Have they begun their counter-attack I wonder. Seems early to me,...
It does seem early. I had heard something about August. But, maybe that was just a rumor for someone else's consumption. Or, maybe they really, really want to save Severodonetsk.
The Russians in Crimea are complaining that someone has blown up a couple oil platforms in the Black Sea. They are blaming the Ukrainians.
The Russians are also complaining about Lithuania closing the rail line to any trains carrying sanctioned goods into Russia. They are saying it is illegal. Hmmm...why does the phrase "the pot calling the kettle black" come to mind?
Azot was no different except the Ukrainian military decided to stay this time for military reasons that greatly exceeded the utility of a group of civilian holdouts.
It would seem so.
Don't have the same effect when I say it.
Nope, it was all in the delivery. And maybe the fact that he was front and center in a public hearing for all to hear.
They will be surprised.
A fool and his country are soon parted.
Oh, almost forgot...
The Texas GOP have adopted a resolution rejecting the 2020 election results.
"I should have said they couldn't win against Russia in a
conventional artillery war in open terrain."
They might have won that round too. The Russians appear to be running out of steam already--Putin's pressing them hard to try to put some gains away in their win column before their current assault collapses in exhaustion, logistical failure, and a soldier rebellion, but they ain't quite been able.
Granted, the Russians are currently exhibiting an aggressive and dominating presence at the western edge of the Luhansk 'Republic', but they ain't put it away yet--much to my surprise.
I'll remind us again, I was expecting the Russians would take Sievierodonetsk in the current advance, and then they'd lose it back later as their forces ran out of steam. So their current inability to put it away in their win column despite the admitted intensity of their current assault does not impress me merely by the intensity of their current assault. (Smacks of desperation to me, but we'll have to see how it works out.)
We'll never know how that would have worked out in the end, but my money was on Ukraine prevailing in the end--after a bitter set of losses of territory, temporary, but for a time. But, now they're getting armed up a bit better, so we'll never know for sure.
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"The Russians are also complaining about Lithuania closing
the rail line to any trains carrying sanctioned goods into
Russia."
I didn't realize at first that this referred to the isolation of the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad on the shores of the Baltic Sea. That's a fairly aggressive move.
(I'm not much in agreement with Emmanuel Macron's opinion that we must avoid embarrassing Putin at all costs. Now that the subject of Kalingrad has come up--I'm kinda thinkin' that we probably should be looking at the possible emancipation of that exclave as one possible consequence of Putin's overreach into Europe.)
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"The Texas GOP have adopted a resolution rejecting the 2020
election results."
They've gone even further. The new Texas Trumpkan/Republican Party Platform calls for scheduling a vote to secede from the United States by middle of next year. They claim that Texas 'retains the right to secede', apparently unaware that Texas lost a very real war asserting this very same claim back in the 1860's. (And then agreed to the North's terms for reunification, which included the explicit renunciation of the supposed 'right' of secession.)
I would like to figure a way to get them and Florida, Ohio, and both the Carolinas to boycott the 2024 Presidential elections though, just refuse to send electoral votes, let 'em count 'em without 'em. That would be good.
Today's Jan 6ᵗʰ Committee hearings begin at noon, CDT, and will concentrate on Trump's efforts to get various states to submit false 'slates' of electors (by hook or by crook).
Georgia's Brad Raffensperger will appear. I will be watching in real time.
Kaliningrad
Yes, sorry, I left that out. It is an odd bit of territory that got stuck with Russia. It should probably be part of one of the other bordering countries, but given it is a wealthier Russian enclave my guess would be Russia would consider that "provocative".
Transnistria is also an odd bit of territory as well. I watched a video on that the other day. It's a place that time has forgot.
The Russians appear to be running out of steam already--Putin's pressing them hard to try to put some gains away in their win column before their current assault collapses in exhaustion, logistical failure, and a soldier rebellion, but they ain't quite been able.
I think there have already been Russian units rebelling. Not enough though.
Meanwhile, over at Snake Island, there seems to be a Ukrainian air attack taking place. Taking out Russian assets there would be a win for Ukraine.
I would like to figure a way to get them and Florida, Ohio, and both the Carolinas to boycott the 2024 Presidential elections though, just refuse to send electoral votes, let 'em count 'em without 'em. That would be good.
The GOP probably feels that way about California and New York. But as much as I would like to see the crazy states marginalized too it can't be done that way in a democracy. We have to learn to play smarter to survive.
I will be watching in real time.
Nice. I have to watch the recorded version. I wish they would put them all in prime time, but I supposed the stations wouldn't give them that much time.
I think the major contribution of today's hearings was the calm (mostly) explanation of just HOW they thought they were going to pull it off, and how much of it depended on muddying up the water first, getting everybody confused about what the claims were, and especially making certain that their own supporters didn't understand the claims being made (and would therefore be more willing to support the claims than they'd have been if they'd known what the Hell the Trump campaign was actually doing).
"It is an odd bit of territory that got stuck with Russia."
Actually, it was created special to give Russia a port on the Baltic Sea. Originally it was part of "Prussia" a German province on the far eastern edge of the collection of German principalities the had once been the part of the backbone of the Holy Roman Empire. Wiki The famous German general/politician Otto von Bismark was from Prussia.
After World War II Russia wanted (still wanted) a port on the Baltic, leading out into the Atlantic. Germany had one. Germany had lost the war. Germany lost the port city as well, and it was renamed as Kaliningrad and given to the Soviet Union as war booty.
I think the major contribution of today's hearings was the calm (mostly) explanation of just HOW they thought they were going to pull it off,...
I only have about an hour left to watch. I think that so far everything has been laid out very factually, using video, audio, social media and eye witness accounts. Unfortunately, those who really need to watch these hearings won't.
...it was renamed as Kaliningrad and given to the Soviet Union as war booty.
That's what I call stuck. Personally I wouldn't want to be war booty when it was for the Soviet Union, or Russia.
I was reading something about what Lithuania did with blocking the railroad. He was wondering if it was bait for someone?
Word's going around that Putin's not impressed with the speed at which the Ukrainians have been retiring some of his top generals from their posts in theatre in Ukraine, so Putin's gonna start dismissing some of the survivors himself. BusinessInsider
"…bait for someone?"
Don't have any insights about 'bait', but it certainly seemed to be public statement. Putin's issued a public reply, or so thought I saw going by on the speeding headlines.
The NewYorkTimes is assuming this morning that the Putin's plan to seize the Luhansk 'Republic' now involves seizing the city of Lysychansk as well, west of the Siversky-Donets River.
...Putin's plan to seize the Luhansk 'Republic' now involves seizing the city of Lysychansk as well...
I don't think Putin has given up the dream of seizing all of Ukraine. He's just resigned to being more patient about it.
The Ukrainian military have been tactically withdrawing to preserve forces and equipment, now they are faced with the decision to do so or not to do so in Lysychansk as well. Hard days for them.
The Russians seem to be more successful in targeting some of the equipment that we have sent. At least there is news of some M777's being destroyed recently.
There was an attack on a Russian oil depot inside Russia by a drone. Quite a ways inside Russia, about 186 miles inside. Too far for the Ukrainian military, one would think. The drone used was a smaller, cheaper one. Speculation is that the drone's owner was local.
One caveat on that last oil depot fire. There has been no confirmation on the place and time on that video that I am aware of. The source is usually accurate, but you never know...
Judge Luttig's was said to be 'truly chilling'? Wait 'til you get a load of today's testimony.
The Ukrainians have announced that they're withdrawing from the rubble of Sievierodonetsk, retreating across the river into the rubble of Lysychansk. From there they will try to inflict further casualties on Putin's forces as the latter try to create a reliable ford across the river. NYT
Wait 'til you get a load of today's testimony.
I kind of fell asleep during the last part of the last one. I will have to do this one during the day, since I am home and have some free time now.
The Ukrainians have announced that they're withdrawing from the rubble of Sievierodonetsk, retreating across the river into the rubble of Lysychansk.
It was really only a matter of time. I just hope that the weapons we are and will be supplying will allow the Ukrainians to eventually prevail in their theatre of battle.
So the overturning of Roe v Wade is now official. SCOTUS ruled saying this issue should be decided at the state level.
So it changes nothing for Minnesota(for now), but for many other women in the states who are now banning abortion it will be a significant loss. If they want to change the thinking of their state legislators they will have to vote them out.
I think I disagree with Biden on his statement that Roe will be on the ballot in November. It is individual rights that will be on the ballot. It is just they started with the rights of women in their efforts of imposing their authoritarian rule. They will continue on if they are left in power in a large number.
"… since I am home and have some free time now."
Ya'll havin' supply chain issues or somethin' like that?
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"I think I disagree with Biden on his statement that Roe will be
on the ballot in November."
The Democratic politicians generally, across the board, seem to think this'll be a big deal for them come November, big enough to perhaps swing the elections back. "Roe on the ballot…". I'm not sure I agree with that either. But I also don't expect an outpouring of voters concerned about their own 'individual rights'.
The Democrats have a problem of their leadership, across the board, being generations removed from the voters they need to inspire. Abortion may not not be as big a deal as is the economy to the people they'll want to motivate (they kids'll learn the consequences of the abortion decision later), and Biden's caught the wrong end of the economic cycle. (Presidents get both too much blame and too much credit for how the present economy's doing. For one thing, their policies don't usually bear fruit until after their terms expire--thus Republican presidents are in office during the good years brought on by Democratic policies; Democrats are in office during the hard times brought on by Republican presidents. That's the way it is. Bitchin' 'bout it don't change it. And the guy in office now gets the blame, or credit, for how things are going now. Bitchin' 'bout it don't change that either.)
Plus, after a better beginning than I was expecting, Biden inevitably ran into the Joe Manchin problem. (Or, perhaps one could describe it as the Manchin/Sinema tag-team problem; whatever….) After that he started losing a bunch of close counts instead of winning them. The younger crowd is disillusioned with him now. He's gonna need them in 2022, and he may not get 'em out to vote. And the death of Roe may not be enough to do it. They may not yet know what they've lost.
Headline: Russia will soon exhaust its combat capabilities, Western assessments predict
WashingtonPost
"The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be
forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a
grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military
experts.
"‛There will come a time when the tiny advances Russia is making
become unsustainable in light of the costs and they will need a
significant pause to regenerate capability,“ said a senior Western official,
speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive issue.
"The assessments come despite continued Russian advances against
outgunned Ukrainian forces, including the capture on Friday of the town
of Severodonetsk, the biggest urban center taken by Russia in the east
since launching the latest Donbas offensive nearly three months ago.
"The Russians are now closing in on the adjacent city of Lysychank, on
the opposite bank of the Donetsk river. The town’s capture would give
Russia almost complete control of the Luhansk oblast, one of two oblasts,
or provinces, comprising the Donbas region. Control of Donbas is the
publicly declared goal of Russia’s ‛special military operation,“ although
the multi-front invasion launched in February made it clear that
Moscow’s original ambitions were far broader.
***
"According to chatter on Russian Telegram channels and Ukraine’s
deputy defense minister Anna Malyar, the Russian military is under
pressure to bring all of Luhansk under Russian control by Sunday,
perhaps explaining the heightened momentum of the past week.
"But the ‛creeping“ advances are dependent almost entirely on the
expenditure of vast quantities of ammunition, notably artillery shells,
which are being fired at a rate almost no military in the world would be
able to sustain for long, said the senior Western official.
"Russia meanwhile is continuing to suffer heavy losses of equipment and
men, calling into question how much longer it can remain on the attack,
the official said.
"Officials refuse to offer a time frame, but Britain’s Prime Minister Boris
Johnson, citing British intelligence assessments, indicated this week that
Russia would be able to continue to fight on only for the ‛next few
months.“ After that, ‛Russia could come to a point when there is no
longer any forward momentum because it has exhausted its resources,“
he told the German newspaper Sueddeutsche Zeitung in an interview."
We can only hope it's true.
Ya'll havin' supply chain issues or somethin' like that?
Well, yes, there are supply chain issues. Strange things will go missing at the oddest times. But I just meant that I had the day off. Our offices are closed on Fridays for the summer. It's a nice break and gives me a little more free time to do stuff around the house. I managed to get the last of my tomatoes in the garden Friday afternoon. They were delayed arriving for some reason. Hopefully they will mature in time before frost season comes back.
He's gonna need them in 2022, and he may not get 'em out to vote. And the death of Roe may not be enough to do it. They may not yet know what they've lost.
This is true. I think too many people don't really pay attention to the foundational issues on which this country has been running for the last few decades. In other words they take things for granted and don't realize they can be lost. That is why I think individual citizen rights will be on the ballot come November. Unfortunately that doesn't meant anyone will pay attention. It only means that the outcome of the election will show us what path our country will take or continue on with.
It is truly a sad day for America.
The Russian military will soon exhaust its combat capabilities and be
forced to bring its offensive in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region to a
grinding halt, according to Western intelligence predictions and military
experts.
That was kind of the hope.
It seems that Belarus has moved some of its forces to the border with Lithuania. It has also given some of its equipment to Russia.
"…there are supply chain issues. Strange things will go missing
at the oddest times."
I believe you are confusing the 'supply chain' with the 'chain of custody'.
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"[Belarus] has also given some of its equipment to Russia."
This would seem to confirm, further confirm that is, the rumors that Russia is beginning to run short on artillery shells as well as its more advanced missiles and rockets.
Dictators usually feel an inordinate need to keep up the appearance of infallibility, so Putin will keep the shortages tightly concealed right up to the end. There'll likely be a few slip-ups where the lack of ordinance shows through (and a few more of those 'odd' selections of ordinance you've commented on), but mostly it'll be the subject of aggressive cover-up right up until the end, when the whole logistics support system suddenly and publicly collapses.
This would seem to confirm, further confirm that is, the rumors that Russia is beginning to run short on artillery shells as well as its more advanced missiles and rockets.
I suspect Russia/Putin is running out of more than that. The question is will NATO and the West stand fast in support of Ukraine or wimp out? I think it critical to give the Ukrainians everything they need.
There was a military plane crash in Russia recently. The plane caught fire in the air and attempted a crash landing. It didn't make it.
No word on what started the fire.
Hmmm...emergency landing which ended up being a crash landing.
A Russian military supply train has also ran off the tracks. Lots of accidents lately in Russia.
"Lots of accidents lately in Russia."
Lots of graft and corruption in the Russian government during twenty plus years under Putin. Lotta military maintenance got reported as done and was then paid for that didn't actually get done, or didn't get done well.
When the system is eventually called on to preform that sort of thing starts showing up as 'accidents', often blamed on the crews who died in those accidents, or, possibly, blamed on Ukrainian-friendly saboteurs.
The participants at the G-7 meeting are hatching a plot to impose a 'cap' on price of Russian oil.
If they can manage to pull that off it'd be quite blow to Putin. (India, Brazil, Africa in general, etc. would be more than pleased to pay even less for Russian oil than the 'discount' prices Russia is offering them today--discounted from the all-time highs Russia is getting on the open market these days.)
The participants at the G-7 meeting are hatching a plot to impose a 'cap' on price of Russian oil.
I saw that. Good luck to them.
It also appears that Russia has defaulted on its debt. I think that was expected, though.
But Russia is still pressing strongly in Ukraine, which doesn't look good in Lysyschansk.
Will our weapons be too late? Or can Ukraine stand fast until more are deployed? They seem to be using the HIMARS we sent "very well" according to intelligence.
It sounds like they may have taken out another Russian colonel with a HIMAR strike, Colonel Andrei Vasilyev.
"That was kind of the hope."
The first 'hope' I heard bandied about was something along the lines of the Russian oligarchs banding together to demand Putin show a little more sense. (In that conquering a bitter and resistant Ukraine was a recipe for serious trouble for a lotta years.) The notion that Ukraine could put up a winning battlefield fight wasn't much on anybody's list of expectations, or even of longshot hopes, not starting out.
(Just to be clear, the problem of a bitter and resistant Ukraine has not gone away; if anything things've gotten worse for the Russians on that score.)
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Rumors goin' 'round suggesting that today's suddenly scheduled hearings of the Jan 6ᵗʰ Committee are likely to be as interesting and consequential as any of the hearings so far. I'll be watching.
The notion that Ukraine could put up a winning battlefield fight wasn't much on anybody's list of expectations, or even of longshot hopes, not starting out.
I don't know, the Ukrainians were pretty determined right from the beginning. And their president is a feisty little dude.
(Just to be clear, the problem of a bitter and resistant Ukraine has not gone away; if anything things've gotten worse for the Russians on that score.)
Yes, there seem to be some targeted assassinations, and attempted assassinations, of officials working with the Russians in occupied territory.
Rumors goin' 'round suggesting that today's suddenly scheduled hearings of the Jan 6ᵗʰ Committee are likely to be as interesting and consequential as any of the hearings so far. I'll be watching.
I think they have someone new, at least not someone planned, to testify. I will have to try to tune in tonight.
I think the biggest most 'consequential' element from today's hearings was that somebody was finally willing to offer direct, first-hand testimony against Trump (and Mark Meadows) for their direct incitement of the mob on Jan 6ᵗʰ. (There was a lot of hearsay included as well, but, while hearsay might be deemed inadmissible as evidence, it isn't necessarily inadmissible just because it's hearsay.)
Turkey has withdrawn its blockade of the bids of Sweden and Finland for NATO membership. It doesn't look like Erdoğan got much, if anything, in the way of concessions, a fig leaf to wave about, but little else. (Objecting to their NATO bids turns out to not have been a power move by Edoğan after all.) WaPo
It looks like three 2020 election deniers in Colorado have lost their bids for state office in the GOP primary. A small light. Hopefully this will not be the only time.
It looks like Trump was very blunt in his support for the hanging of Mike Pence. Hearsay, maybe, but if you want to contradict it then testify.
I listened to part of the hearing last night, but fell asleep. That is not a comment on the content, I was just tired. I will re-watch it in its entirety, I think. This one has a lot of information that I was not aware of. Not least, was Trump's comments about Pence or his throwing his lunch after Barr refused to call election fraud. Spoiled brat is right.
Zelensky has renewed his call for Ukraine to be admitted to NATO or at least receive some kind of security guarantees. I have to say, he does have a point when he asks, has Ukraine not proven themselves? I would say they have, in spades.
I wasn't aware of the 'throwing lunch plates--ketchup on the wall' detail, but I don't think it's a particularly important detail to have known. Trump has those kinds of issues; I knew that.
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"It looks like three 2020 election deniers in Colorado have
lost…"
I believe the Democrats were spending fairly prolifically in an effort to get those three past the Trumpkan/Republican primary on the theory that they'd be more easily beaten in the general election. Doesn't seem to have worked.
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If I recall correctly: One of the requirements for joining NATO is that the country to be joining actually holds the territory it claims. The Russians now hold territory that Ukraine claims as its own, e.g. Crimea, the Donbas, the Black Sea shore. Ukraine is, by the terms of the NATO agreement, not a conforming candidate for absorption into NATO.
I also recall that various NATO nations have issued multiple 'guarantees' of support for Ukraine. But, what I think Zelenskyy is asking for is a formal NATO guarantee, a guarantee by the organization, not by its member states individually, of Ukraine's pre-invasion borders, i.e. a promise to help drive the Russians back out of all of Ukraine, including Crimea; he wants a NATO declaration of war against Russia.
They're not gonna do that. That's not smart. Russia still has nukes.
WashingtonPost:
"The Russian military announced Thursday that its forces are
withdrawing from Snake Island in the Black Sea…"
"The Russian military announced Thursday that its forces are
withdrawing from Snake Island in the Black Sea…"
Proof there are some smart Russians left.
They're not gonna do that. That's not smart. Russia still has nukes.
I don't think anyone can give any guarantee like that. But we can continue on the path we have set out on.
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