It is Easter Sunday today. So many people are congregating in their places of worship, celebrating rebirth. It is supposed to be a season of hope. Yet it is pain and tragedy that stalks the Earth.
In Ukraine we are seeing the destruction of a country and its people. Cities have been bombed to rubble and innocent people killed. One man has used his propaganda machine to lie to the people of Russia and many believe the lies he has fed them.
Borodyanka, Ukraine:
What appears to be instructions given to Russian soldiers by their superiors. It looks like they have tightened viewing on this video due to content. You will have to click on the link and provide your age if you want to listen to it. Or just go directly to YouTube.
Mariupol, Ukraine:
Mariupol again and the Russian military:
“Easter says you can put truth in a grave, but it won't stay there.” Clarence W. Hall
122 comments:
It appears the waiting is over. The Russians are now ready to uncork their revised version of Putin's War on Ukraine. The first armed contests have already been initiated--Putin's 'Plan B' is underway.
And, for the 17th consecutive day--the Russians are on the verge of finally overrunning Mariupol.
Elsewhere in eastern Ukraine (i.e. not in Mariupol), the Russians have redeployed troops from the failed 'Plan A' blitzkrieg against western Ukraine (many of them resupplied and refitted), and added a fairly significant number of new troops drawn from wherever they could scare them up. (Probably fewer than they'd wanted, but Putin wanted to get the show on the road, as it were, and Gen. Dvornikov found reason to accommodate him.)
Theoretically, this version of the war should play more to Russia's military strengths. It's tank-friendly geography, and the Russians have more tanks. It's in more open terrain, making small unit ambush tactics harder, and the Russians have more troops.
I'm not expecting the Ukrainians to thrash the Russians a second time. They should probably count themselves fortunate if they can withstand the onslaught. But, I wasn't expecting them to drive the Russians back from round one either.
I don't think this next "phase" is going to be very easy for either side. Nor will it be easy to watch.
I keep hoping that there will be a miracle for the people at the steel works in Mariupol. But I don't see that happening, unless the Russian military mutinies. I don't see that happening, despite the fact that I don't think all of them are evil. Not like Putin, anyway.
There will be a special place in hell for him.
It looks like the war between McConnell and Trump is heating up a bit. McConnell is going all in backing Murkowski in Alaska. Trump on the other hand is backing someone else. And that someone else is not receiving the kind of dollars Murkowski is. Despite having a $110 million war chest Trump is rather stingy on sharing.
The Russians have more troops, yes. One wonders when they will get down to the older Soviet artillery shells that are more dangerous to those firing them than to those they are directed at? Will we hear about such "friendly fire" incidents?
The Russian government is still saying the Moskva sinking was due to someone smoking in the wrong place.
"I don't see that happening…"
If the Russian military ever mutinies, it will be where and because they're getting their asses kicked by the Ukrainian armed forces and are nevertheless ordered to fight on after they've decided they don't want to.
They will not mutiny on account of orders to engage in war crimes against Ukrainian civilians (they'd willingly brutalize Russian civilians as well; they'd be of no use to Putin if they wouldn't). Participation in terror activities against civilians is the customary first use for a tyrant's army--their first duty is to terrorize the tyrant's subject populations, foreign and domestic, committing such atrocities as are necessary to keep those populations properly shocked and subjugated. (These activities are only considered 'war crimes' when committed against populations not recognized internationally as 'domestic' civilian populations. Otherwise they're not considered 'war crimes' at all.)
Putin's move to publicly 'honor' the brigade which served in Bucha, Ukraine and committed the atrocities there should have made his opinion on all this clear enough. He thought they were doing what they were supposed to be doing. That's what he sent them there to do. His award of 'honor' to that brigade was a public declaration that they were doing what they were sent to do. No shame there; thumbs up instead.
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Fighting with the states' external enemies is usually the job of conscripted civilians, not of the tyrant's standing army. (Putin aspires for Russia to hold an empire, so his standing army is required to serve dual use--first terrorize the subject civilian populations, next stand off foreign armies if necessary until a conscript army of cannon fodder can be raised against them.)
If the Russian military ever mutinies, it will be where and because they're getting their asses kicked by the Ukrainian armed forces and are nevertheless ordered to fight on after they've decided they don't want to.
Then we have to make sure that happens.
"Then we have to make sure that happens."
Well, first the Russians are gonna shell Ukrainian territory to 'soften the battlefield' as you put in another thread.
Then they're gonna try to come across.
Then we'll see what happens.
It seems that some voices are starting to speak out.
Oleg Tinkov, the billionaire founder of a big Russian digital bank, has blasted Russia’s “insane war” in Ukraine and urged the West to help President Vladimir Putin find an off-ramp to “stop this massacre.”
I'm not sure how many people are still looking for off ramps so Putin can save face, though.
Not feeling too magnanimous here.
Oh, yeah, you can add the parents of those Russian sailors that were aboard the Moskva when it sank too. They would like some truth, instead of Kremlin lies.
If NATO had wanted to invade Russia don't you think it would have done so right after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when it was weakest? Honestly, sometimes you wonder if people have a single brain cell in their heads!
Sorry, it was my day to rant.
They are placing sanctions on another Russian bank, companies in Russia's "virtual currency mining" industry, and another oligarch, as well as those Russians who are enabling Putin to smother dissent, not just in Russia but also in Belarus.
In addition, the State Department is imposing visa restrictions "on 635 Russian nationals who are involved in suppressing dissent in Russia and abroad, who have been involved in activities that threaten the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and who have been involved in human rights abuses in prison facilities and places of unofficial detention in Russia-controlled areas of the Donbas region of Ukraine," as well as three Russian officials "for involvement in gross violations of human rights, and on 17 individuals responsible for undermining democracy in Belarus," according to the Treasury.
"It seems that some [Russian] voices are starting to speak out."
Too few.
"I'm not sure how many people are still looking for off ramps
so Putin can save face, though."
To paraphrase an argument I heard elsewhere… Putin is evil, but he is not shy. If he had wanted an off ramp he would have let us know.
"Mr. Putin…believes he is winning, according to a senior
American official who asked for anonymity to discuss
intelligence findings."
NYT
He doesn't want an off ramp.
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Back in mid-March the Ukraines launched their opening small-scale, first-try counter-attack against the forces arrayed against Kyiv (and those which had already taken Kherson). link I took note then of the Ukrainians' very public announcement that they were not trying to drive the Russians back. They were not looking to retake disputed territory.
Rather, they were looking to kill Russians, as many as they could; kill 'em where they found 'em, kill 'em on the spot; don't let 'em get away.
They may still have that mindset.
They may soon have an opportunity to indulge the urge.
Russia’s defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, has shown up overnight on Russian television discussing current events on the ground in Ukraine. So, he's still alive after all (there had been speculations.)
It looks like th Russians have decided to starve out the people at the Avastol steel plant. I don't know that that is a change in plan, just an announcement
They may soon have an opportunity to indulge the urge.
Perhaps the planes will help in that regard. Operable, if refurbished, still works.
He doesn't want an off ramp.
No. Perhaps there are others who do.
I was thinking about your comment about the Ukrainians wanting to kill Russian soldiers. Given what the Russians have done it is easy to understand their abger. What isn't easy to understand is Russia not wanting to take back their dead and wounded when the Ukrainians offered to return them. Kind of weird.
"I don't know that that is a change in plan…"
That was very much a change in plans. And It gives him an opportunity to proclaim the city of Mariupol "liberated" because he gave that word a new definition which includes parts of the city being still in Ukrainian hands. But, his supporters on the streets in Russia will gladly play along. He needed good news to tell them, so he just manufactured good news from Mariupol.
"What isn't easy to understand is Russia not wanting to take
back their dead and wounded…"
This is not about what Russia wants. This is about what Putin wants. He wants, he needs, good news to tell his supporters. Dead and wounded Russian soldiers are bad news, not good news. This bad news is easier to keep hidden if the Ukrainians have to keep custody of the evidence.
Associated Press:
"BEIJING (AP) — China’s credit card processor has refused to work with
banks in Russia for fear of being targeted by sanctions over its war on
Ukraine, cutting off a possible alternative after Visa and Mastercard
stopped serving them, according to the Russian news outlet RBC."
Dead and wounded Russian soldiers are bad news, not good news. This bad news is easier to keep hidden if the Ukrainians have to keep custody of the evidence.
It seems to me that reasoning isn't the best. All he is doing is giving parents more reason to question everything that is going on if they don't get their children back. I will not mention the cruelty of not giving those parents closure as Putin simply doesn't care. But if I were a parent and my child simply disappeared I would not stop looking.
Personally I think he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.
It would appear that Russia suffers from the same ailment as Iraq under Saddam. That is
the existence of "ghost" soldiers. Soldiers who only exist on paper, whose pay is pocketed by higher ups.
That, along with the reluctance of soldiers to come back to Ukraine after returning to Russia, may make the actual number of Russian soldiers fighting in Ukraine hard to judge.
"All he is doing is giving parents more reason to question
everything…"
Yeah, well, he's got a lot more Russians to whom he needs to sell his story, Russians who aren't the parents of dead soldiers. If the story works for those non-parents then it'll improve his political position overall; he'll be able to afford to piss off a few parent types.
Without any particularly good options, hiding the evidence in Ukrainian custody probably seems to be the best of the available options. And it may prove to be quite good enough.
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"…'ghost' soldiers. Soldiers who only exist on paper…"
Hadn't heard that to be a significant problem for the Russian Army. Suppose I'll havta keep an eye open for indications it's more than a minor, occasional problem.
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I wouldn't have considered this a month ago, but in consideration of the 'kill Russians' attitude, and looking at the supply lists of weapons headed into Ukraine (just the public lists), it's worth considering as a possibility now (a possibility; I wouldn't call it probable):
What if the Ukrainians drive the Russians out of Ukraine?
Crimea, Donbas, all of it; what if they drive the Russians out?
What does Putin do then?
What if it's just in the north of Crimea, the old Ukraine? …Including the Donbas region, but not including Crimea.
What does Putin do then?
He can always take Hitler's way out.
So what's up with the Russian oil executives and their families dying? First one in Moscow and then one today in Spain.
I don't have a line on that.
I was looking at a map of the 'entire south' Ukraine that Russia supposedly wants to absorb (Russian held areas proposed to run north of the city of Mykolaiv in a fairly straight line). That's a lot of Ukrainian territory. I don't see Putin believing the Ukrainians would be willing to let him have that much territory (and their entire seacoast). They fought him over Kyiv; they'd fight him over this territory as well. He's gotta know that.
Does look though like Putin's managed to get himself mentally prepared though for the idea of sending Russian troops into a soldier grinder that we're probably going to be willing to keep financing long as he wants to pour his soldiers into it. (Question then comes down to how long the Ukrainians will be willing to fight for their land. How long will they be willing to pour Ukrainian soldiers into that same soldier grinder? My guess: Long as it takes.)
In this new campaign it's gonna matter that neither Putin nor his new 'butcher' general, Alexander Dvornikov, had any notion going in that they'd be facing an enemy who could match them in firepower, and more important, outmatch them in ammo. It's already been estimated that the Ukrainians have more tanks in the battlefield than the Russians do. (Of course, they're almost all T-72s instead the the T-90s the Russians can field, but that's not as big a deal as it might be--the T-90 ain't that much better.) A fair number of the Ukrainian tanks were Russian tanks just three months ago. They're now getting a new flag plus spare parts, maintenance and fuel. And now the Ukrainians have long-range artillery hitting the field which can match the Russians for range. The noticeable difference is gonna be that the Ukrainians are gonna have ammo pouring in from their allies. The Russians are gonna have shortages, sanctions and blockades.
Truth is, Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, the Butcher of Syria, has no experience dealing with an enemy who can match him for deliverable firepower and who can contest with his air force for control of the skies. He's likely in for some surprises. (He likely will perform better the Putin was doing, but that's a low bar.)
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There's already been some grumbling that the United States is willing to finance this war right down to last battle-ready Ukrainian soldier. I can see the outline of an argument there, but it's not a good faith argument. We didn't impose our desire for a fight on the Ukrainians, we didn't even sell them on the idea--we didn't lead them to this battle. The Russians came after them. And they decided to fight back. As long as they still want to fight back I think it's totally proper, fully moral to provide them all the war matériel they can handle. So, to the extent that the United States is willing to fight this fight right down to the last drop of Ukrainian blood--I'd say that's a good thing overall.
I have to say I was rather surprised that the Russians would put out a statement explicitly stating their goals. I can understand Moldova's tesponse. Although I thought it rather tepid. But still a little odd. All it did was encourage the Ukrainians to continue to fight.
Truth is, Gen. Alexander Dvornikov, the Butcher of Syria, has no experience dealing with an enemy who can match him for deliverable firepower and who can contest with his air force for control of the skies.
That thought had crossed my mind too. In fact I would say that would apply to all of the Russian military. Except perhaps for the Wagner group who ran into our guys in Syria and came out the worse for wear.
I am starting to thimk that the only way to stop Russia is for Putin to be eliminated, either killed or forced to resign, or the destruction of the Russian military as a viable fighting force.
"I was rather surprised that the Russians would put out
a statement…"
Well, they didn't actually "put out a statement" on the subject. Lot of speculation going on as to whether or not it was 'official' policy, but what happened is…
A Russian general with their political propaganda division made the statement during a speech he was giving at a seminar or something like, back in central Russia. His mention got picked up and reprinted in official Russian media.
My guess is he talked out of school (they probably had a talk with him about that later), and then they decided to just let it stand instead of trying to walk it back, which wouldn't have worked.
"…or the destruction of the Russian military as a viable
fighting force…"
There ya go. That's our 'Plan B'. The Russians have run into a hostile viable fighting force. Now we're gonna finance the soldier grinder.
Speaking of which… The Ukrainians are claiming at least two more Russian generals today, and maybe more than just the two, whacked simultaneously at a forward command post in Kherson (long claimed to be under control by the Russians, but never quite so controlled as they claimed). Looks like some of that longer range artillery is already being put to good use: "The destruction of the Russian military as a viable fighting force…."
Dang, beat me to the punch again.
You would think the Russians wouldn't bunch up their generals like that. Makes a really good target. But fortunate for our side.
Well, they didn't actually "put out a statement" on the subject.
Yeah, he rather let the cat out of the bag. But our analysts were already speculating about this possibility, so I guess no real surprise.
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"…or the destruction of the Russian military as a viable
fighting force…"
That's our 'Plan B
Yup, and I'm okay with that. They are being wielded as a terrorist force and not one of self defense.
I've been thinking about Bruno lately. Specifically his discussion about how empires end. With over reach. Of course he was talking about the US. But it can happen to any empire that has delusions of grandeur.
"Specifically his discussion about how empires end. With over
reach."
As with most cases, Bruno was fulla shit there. Quick rebuttal; I will give it no more because it deserves no more--Russia is not an empire. The Soviet Union, which was an empire, ended not from overreach but from fatally flawed economics policies--they went bankrupt. But you're honestly considering whether Bruno's argument about empires applies to modern Russia, which is not an empire. Proof there that it was so over-broad as to be meaningless. It was clever word play, but it was circular. It proved anything and everything--if you let yourself get sucked into the circle.
Oh, and Russia will not end from Putin's overreach; Russia will survive the fiasco that their war against Ukraine is proving to be. Putin will not survive it, but Russia will.
As with most cases, Bruno was fulla shit there.
LOL! That's our Bruno.
Anyway, he was comparing the United States to an empire, which I would argue with, yes. Someone once said that we were a nation of shopkeepers. He was right. We prefer to trade. Unless we are attacked, in which case all bets are off. In the case of Russia, yes, Russia the country will always exist. As I said before, no one, except perhaps China, really wants to try to take it on. Why would we? Trading is far more desirable, if their government and military weren't terrorists and encroaching on the free will of other countries. We have partnered with them in the past on mutual endeavors like the ISS. We would have liked to work with them on climate change as well. That is still the existential threat to human existence. It saddens me that Putin has ruined so much of what we could have been.
No, I was really referring to Putin's Empire. Because I would argue that that is what he has been trying to achieve. He just uses Russia as a cover for his own rather grandiose ambitions. He would bring back the Soviet Union and to do that he is trying to gain control over other countries where he can. We saw it in Georgia and Syria from a military perspective. We are seeing it in Ukraine to a much larger degree. And I believe they are right when they say he would not stop there. In other countries he has tried a more, shall we say underhanded, approach. We have even seen that here with cyber attacks and the disinformation that has so affected our internal politics. He has played us for suckers for a long time, and unfortunately many in the GOP have fallen for that hook line and sinker, thanks to Donald Trump.
He has been meddling in Europe with disinformation as well and also eliminating opposition figures via mob like hits using poison or prison. Many have been warning the West about his true nature for some time, but we have ignored their voices.
The Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan in 1979, pulled out in 1989, and collapsed in early 1992. Their economy wasn't strong enough to withstand the cost of that invasion and internal divisions leading to a coup attempt against Gorbachev led to the empire's collapse. While Putin has attempted to insulate himself from a coup I am not sure he understands economics well enough to have insulated Russia from the economic fallout.
Putin is engaged in overreach to the detriment of everyone, the worst harm being inflicted on Ukraine.
Someone raised this idea, which sounds rather interesting:
The UN should offer to replace the "peacekeeping" Russian troops in Moldova. It might prove to be a prescient move for the future.
I saw an argument some time back for the proposition that Ukraine could be elevated into the Soviet Union's old seat and displace Russia. The precedent was set when Communist China was elevated to take the original Chinese seat (complete with veto power in the Security Council) and displaced the Nationalist Chinese government which was still in possession of Taiwan (and still is) and still in possession of the veto power, which didn't do 'em any good. The Chinese and the Russians both supported the arguments that won the day there and established the precedent.
Looks like it could apply to Ukraine displacing Russia in the old Soviet Union seat. (Takes a super majority vote in the General Assembly.)
So far nobody's pushing for that because India, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina, and whole passel of other significant nations won't cross the Russians, in the hopes of getting oil or minerals on the cheap as a reward. Also, Russia's a revanchist asshole of a country, as countries go, and it turns out there's a lot of asshole countries out there consider the Russians bon temp compagnon de voyage traveling companions, and partners in giving the finger to the European concept of international relations and international order.
So, there's no real chance of getting the super majority that would be required. That might change though, depending on how this war ends.
Macron defeated Le Pen. Dodged a bullet there.
Le Pen shot way low--he beat her by 16 percentage points plus.
Perhaps Putin helped with that. She seemed to be in his pocket and he's not too popular in Europe with some people.
A fuel depot in Russia is on fire. No word on the cause. Perhaps one of those lax Russian soldiers out for a smoke.
Dang, it looks like a video got locked up. I will have to add the link...
Oh, it looks like they provided a link...
Associated Press says a second Russian pipeline/storage facility has been hit. This one carrying oil to Europe. Not certain it serves the invasion, but probably. (The link is obscure in use, so I'll not bother to include it.)
Russia has announced it will cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and Poland. Poland has said they have other sources.
An ammunition depot is on fire in the Belgorod region of Russia. Hopefully it contains missiles and artillery rounds.
"Russia has announced it will cut off gas supplies to Bulgaria and
Poland."
That'll give them an opportunity to declare Russia in breach of the contracts and to quit buying Russian gas without any financial penalties contained in the contracts. Another not smart move on Putin's part.
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Putin's gone back to using the twenty foot long conference tables with him off at one extreme end. WaPo
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"An ammunition depot is on fire in the Belgorod region of Russia."
Russians say the fire's out already.
An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made cryptic references to reports of overnight explosions in regions of Russia bordering Ukraine.
Myhailo Podolyak said that "the Belgorod, Voronezh, and Kursk regions are now also beginning to actively study such a concept as 'demilitarization.'"
In these Russian regions, large fuel depots that provide fuel for the Russian army's armored vehicles periodically burn and ammunition depots explode. For various reasons."
An excerpt from an update on CNN' s website. He also added that karma can be cruel.
I am really admiring of some of these Ukrainians.
"An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has made
cryptic references to reports of overnight explosions in regions of Russia
bordering Ukraine."
The comments may have been cryptic, but the explosions were clear enough.
"BEIJING (AP) — Drone company DJI Technology Co has temporarily
suspended business activities in Russia and Ukraine to prevent use of its
drones in combat, in a rare case of a Chinese company pulling out of
Russia because of the war.
"“DJI is internally reassessing compliance requirements in various
jurisdictions. Pending the current review, DJI will temporarily suspend all
business activities in Russia and Ukraine,” the company said in a
statement released Tuesday."
Associated Press
Looks like the Chinese are dropping hints.
Yes, I think so. They prefer a harmonious existence in their trading partners.
But we've been doing the same for some time. Putin seems tone deaf.
"But we've been doing the same for some time."
Indeed, we've been overusing, and trivializing the power of sanctions, robbing them of their real power by mismanaging that power. The neo-cons still running the American right-wing have no other weapons now that the dedicated Trumpkins and "America Firsters" won't support their internationalist inclinations.
But, Putin has almost in a single stroke revived the threat of sanctions.
Sanctions need to be broad-based in application--everybody of power in the market needs to participate. Just like in traditional war with projectiles and fire, allies are important. The neo-cons wanted so bad to believe that wasn't true that they just insisted on believing it wasn't true, even when the rest of us knew better. (And they helped spawn the dedicated Trumpkin/QAnon/FoxNews coalition and raise it on the same diet of magical thinking as well.)
Putin has almost single handedly supplied the broad-based coalition against him. There are a lot holdouts, Latin America, wide swaths of Africa and the Middle East; even India. But the single technologically advanced and economically powerful holdout is China, which is a more immediate threat to Russia than to us. So, Putin's kinda screwed if the sanctions coalition holds together.
PBS has been doing a three hour in three parts documentary called Rise of the Nazis: Dictators at War about the interplay between Hitler and Stalin. They were amazingly similar to one another, similarities shared with Putin (and Trump can be seen breathing that air as well). It'll still be watchable online for another week or so.
It appears to be the conventional wisdom that Putin's War on Ukraine has evolved into a traditional European model, the grinding slugfest. Conventional wisdom also holds that Russia has the high hand in this new game.
Less conventional, it further appears that most military type folks are expecting Putin to find another of those 'frozen conflicts' to be in his interest here, rather than risk a potential loss trying for a clear win--should a clear win prove perhaps difficult to achieve (as I expect it would be).
It is not clear to me that the Ukrainians share Putin's aversion for risk in this game. I suppose we shall see.
At least we can guess at an end-game now. I guess Putin works to avoid a clear end-game in the hopes of winning a drawn out slow hand, achieving by persistence what he could not achieve by guile and surprise. But Putin in the slow lane may not be a winning game in today's Europe.
(Besides, all that assumes that Putin will suddenly have reversed his recently acquired practice of screwin' 'bout everthing he touches.)
...about the interplay between Hitler and Stalin. They were amazingly similar to one another, similarities shared with Putin (and Trump can be seen breathing that air as well).
I have noticed a likeness, yes. It is unfortunate that so many others don't. Or don't care.
It appears that some of the European countries that are being blackmailed by Putin are going to cave to his demands that they pay for their gas in rubles.
And, meanwhile, on this side of the pond Biden has went to Congress requesting $33 billion in aid for Ukraine. What are the odds that the Republicans will actually be reasonable and not throw a wrench in the works? I have heard Biden's immigration policy of repealing Title 42 will be an issue that is attached to this funding.
Why do I get the feeling that this conflict between Russia and Ukraine is only a precursor to resource wars sparked by climate change?
"…countries that are being blackmailed by Putin…"
To the extent you're referring to Viktor Orbán and Hungary, they are willing and eager participants to the supposed 'blackmail'. Some other European governments simply find it convenient to play both sides.
"What are the odds that the Republicans will actually…?"
Hard to figure the odds these days of the Republicans getting any unified position on foreign policy.
"Why do I get the feeling that this conflict between Russia
and Ukraine is only a precursor to resource wars sparked by
climate change?"
Perhaps because it might be true is why.
________________________________
Putin seems to be having a temper tantrum.
"Ukraine said five Russian missiles hit the capital as U.N.
Secretary General António Guterres ended his Thursday visit,
in which he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky…"
WaPo
And by 'tantrum' I mean one of those squally, jump up and down, 'see me', 'see me' displays of really bad behavior, unnecessary and unhelpful.
Indonesia has invited Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to attend the G-20 meeting in November. (I wonder if they cleared that invite with Putin?)
My local paper is reporting that a missile factory was hit in Russia. I don't know how accurate that is. But good news, if true. More of the Russian's supply chain should be targeted.
It looks like that cane from a NYT article.
came
To the extent you're referring to Viktor Orbán and Hungary,...
No, I was talking about Germany. Hungary is more a Putin patsy.
Putin seems to be having a temper tantrum.
He has never struck me as a mature type of person, all of his brutality aside. Childish comes to mind, especially in his decision making. As I may have said before, a bit like the guy in North Korea.
You know, what's his name...
He's short, chunky and has tall hair...
I believe he answers to the name of 'Little Rocket Man'.
Morning news summaries for today seem to adopt a conventional shared view that the Russian 'Plan B' is stalling out largely for the same reasons that Putin's blitzkrieg sputtered and finally failed. I hope that turns out to be true.
I do to.
Perhaps that is why they continually resort to carpet bombing. It's what they can do.
It looks like they may have started using submarines to fire cruise missles. Having problems with their surface ships catching fire for some reason.
"Perhaps that is why they continually resort to carpet
bombing."
It would be my judgment that the Russians in fact have not yet resorted to 'carpet bombing', which I understand to be a particular saturation pattern of bombing using 'dumb' gravity bombs (they are indeed using dumb gravity bombs, but not adopting the defined pattern of bombing). But, the only reason they haven't gone to carpet bombing is that they don't have enough gravity bombs to actually fill the pattern. So, they just do the best they can in imitation.
(Should Putin's 'Plan B' assault on Ukrainian civilians stay stalled for a couple weeks we might anticipate the Ukrainians going on the offensive against Russia's southern penetration and even into the Donbas itself.)
I have seen reports that the Ukrainians are attacking in some areas in the east. I don't know to what extent, but they did manage to push the Russians out of a small town close to Kharkiv, allowing the residents to evacuate.
It would be my judgment that the Russians in fact have not yet resorted to 'carpet bombing
Yes, well, I may have exaggerated a little, but given some of the destruction I see in some areas it does look like WWII . So I used that term.
"…allowing the residents to evacuate."
Yeah, I understood that to be more of a localized rescue mission than the beginning of a theatre-wide counterattack.
India, which has been careful to not offend Putin of late, is now in the midst of an unplanned-for die-back on their native wheat harvest due to record-breaking drought. AssociatedPress (Krishna seemingly ain't all that worried 'bout not offending Putin.)
I think the Ukrainians were trying to take a little of the pressure of of Kharkiv, pushing the Russians out of artillery range.
India, which has been careful to not offend Putin of late, is now in the midst of an unplanned-for die-back on their native wheat harvest due to record-breaking drought.
So much for their plans to capitalize on the demand for wheat. The best laid plans...
Apparently another fire at a Russian defense facility in Belgorod. Again with helicopters circling.
Reports are that the Ukrainians got a 9th Russian general near Izyum today, Major General Anton Simonov, along with several Russian armored vehicles and Russian soldiers.
That should read "Andrei" Simonov.
Seems like the Shire folk been getting busy on the orcs today.
Looks like that 9th dead Russian general got tagged during an attempt to get at an even higher ranked general.
"ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine — The chief of the general staff of
the Russian military, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, the country’s
highest ranking uniformed officer, made a visit to dangerous
front-line positions in eastern Ukraine late last week in an
effort to “change the course” of Russia’s flagging offensive
there, according to a senior Ukrainian official. Two U.S.
officials with knowledge of the visit also backed that
assessment.
"Ukrainian officials learned of the visit, the Ukrainian official
said, but not in time to catch General Gerasimov. When
Ukrainian forces launched an attack on one position visited by
General Gerasimov, at School No. 12 in the Russian-controlled
city of Izium on Saturday evening, he had already departed for
Russia. Still, some 200 soldiers, including at least one general,
were killed, the Ukrainian official said, speaking on condition
of anonymity to discuss a sensitive military operation."
NYT
They keep having to send top-level, flag rank officers out to the front lines to try to straighten out the combat officers already AT the front lines. This is not a good look for the Russian military. Just having the top-level officers going out there is evidence of problems. Gettin' 'em killed just makes a bad situation look worse.
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Mike Lyndell was reinstated to Twitter yesterday--end of his suspension. He promptly, immediately got himself suspended again.
Gettin' 'em killed just makes a bad situation look worse.
I promise not to give them a hard time about it if they keep doing it.
Mike Lyndell was reinstated to Twitter yesterday--end of his suspension. He promptly, immediately got himself suspended again.
Everyone is wondering what will happen after Elon Musk takes over. Will he continue the bans or will he not?
Not surprised, Lindell hasn't exactly changed his spots. Crazy he is.
It looks like Germany is ready for an oil embargo against Russia. They will not pay in rubles. Hungary will, of course.
I suspect that sanctions are starting to pinch ordinary Russians. From what I have heard, anyway. Propping up the ruble really isn't helping as much as Putin would like. I think some are missing "McDonalds". Others think they can just produce goods in Russia to replace those lost from the West.
Our Covid cases are rising again here. But many of them are the milder version, I think. I have not gotten my second booster yet. I will wait until at least 6 months I think. The idea of having to get a shot every 4 months seems a little much. But I have started to wear masks again in high traffic areas like grocery stores.
I wonder if China will ever get out of lockdown? They seem to be asking the impossible, zero cases.
he had already departed for
Russia.
Maybe not so fast.
Multiple accounts are saying that Valeriy Gerasimov was hit by shrapnel and was flown back to Moscow for treatment. He might be taking an early retirement.
"But I have started to wear masks again in high traffic areas
like grocery stores."
Yeah, I have too. Our county transmission levels are still low, and I've had my second booster shot already, but I never did put away my individual little boxes of a day's worth of masking material. I have actually expanded their contents list to include both a surgical and an N95 mask, selecting between the choices (choices include no mask) in the parking lots after I've scoped out the crowds' apparent makeup and concentrations.
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I have seen some of the speculations (some masquerading as reporting) that Gen. Valery Gerasimov was hit in one of the Ukrainian attacks on Russian positions in the Donbas. So far it doesn't appear those specuations are confirmed. Not lookin' good for the Russian military either way.
American and British military intelligence are both suggesting that the Russians' second initiative 'Plan B' is not producing the advances on the ground that Putin desires. Seems there's been a lot of stumbling minor military advance by the Russians, then the Ukrainians locate the Russians' concentration of effort and promptly drive them back with often significant losses. The Russians are still getting out-run on the ground and out-fought pretty much across the area.
Putin's got less than a week until the traditional May 9th 'Victory Day' celebrations in Moscow. Don't look to me like he's gonna be able to post claims of significant military successes against Ukraine during the time remaining available to him. (If General Gerasimov hasn't already decided on an early retirement, he might wanna start considering that option. Putin gonna be lookin' for whom can he blame 'fore too long.)
It may be the lack of significant military success that's leading Putin to press for formal annexation of new areas of Ukraine into Russia. (Lacking military success he can fabricate political headlines in their stead.) Putin may be figuring to announce these annexation initiatives during the Victory Day celebrations. (Might be a good time to drop a Ukrainian cruise missile on a parade through Red Square just in front of the Kremlin. Just 'cause. Or, maybe more than one. Air raid sirens going off during Putin's 'bask in the limelight' time at the Kremlin would be memorable if nothing else.)
Yes, i too alternate between the surgical and N95 mask depending on circumstances. Or no mask.
Most people are not wearing masks, but that is no surprise.
So far it doesn't appear those specuations are confirmed.
No I haven't seen anything either. We'll see if he shoes up in public to prove the speculation wrong.
Might be a good time to drop a Ukrainian cruise missile on a parade through Red Square just in front of the Kremlin. Just 'cause. Or, maybe more than one.
Funny I was thinking the same thing. But maybe they have closer targets that are of interest.
In spite of Putin's very public orders to 'lock down' the Ukrainian marines in the Mariupol steel factory 'so a fly couldn't get through', the Russians attempted to storm the place again today, just after the expiration of a temporary cease-fire to allow some civilians to escape.
It did not go well for the Russians. The Ukrainian Guard Unit are still in possession of the hold they've held for goin' on three months now.
In a move that surprised me--the E.U. is preparing to announce economic sanctions against the person of Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev, an ex-KGB agent also now known as Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill of Moscow.
Less surprising--the E.U. also intends to announce the cut-off of all gas and oil imports from Russia (including refined finished products) by the end of the year.
The Ukrainian Guard Unit are still in possession of the hold they've held for goin' on three months now.
It sounds like the Russians are throwing everything they have at that plant and the people inside it. Ukraine has lost contact with the defenders inside.
In a move that surprised me--the E.U. is preparing to announce economic sanctions against the person of Vladimir Mikhailovich Gundyayev, an ex-KGB agent also now known as Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill of Moscow.
The Pope has called him "Putin's Altar Boy" and they have agreed to call off their planned meeting in June.
I didn't know he was ex-KGB. Rather on odd change of career choice on his part. But maybe not so much of a change after all.
Well, the sh*t has hit the fan with the leak of the Supreme Court draft by Alito justifying the overturning of Roe v Wade. But it would have done so anyway when it became public in June. If that is how they really do rule.
If the court rules against Roe they will be going against the will of a majority of Americans. Thus showing how politically biased the court has become with the advent of the Trump appointed judges. Alito had went so far in his hearings to express the opinion that Roe was settled law. So much for that double speak.
I don't know if this will affect the mid-terms. It should, but in the past Democrats really haven't come out enough and voted on this issue. But then if they had been watching, and voting over the past years, we wouldn't be in this position now.
I think if this comes to be we will fall behind the rest of the world on this issue. Talk about going back to the dark ages. Sad, very sad.
Russia will also have the problem of advertising. The performance of their military hardware in Ukraine has got to give their customers for that type of thing pause.
Yesterday saw 'heavy fighting' on the grounds of the now famous Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. The Russians opened a breach in the outer perimeter for the second day in a row (the defenders are known to be low on ammo), but they failed to clear the Ukrainian defenders out of their holds. Today will constitute the third day of the battle on the grounds of the plant.
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"The Pope has called him 'Putin's Altar Boy'…"
Only by inference the Pope's audience was required to supply. What Pope Francis actually said was"
"The patriarch cannot become Putin's altar boy…"
But,…yeah…there it is.
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I've never been much of one to condition my vote on any particular "die on this hill" declaration about abortion. I don't think the future of the Republic will rise or fall on this question.
I do think that puckered white haired old men and their equally puckered blue haired wives got no business telling nubile young women that they have to gestate a baby they don't want. She's the one who's pregnant; she should be the one who gets to decide whether she stays pregnant. That's my take on it. But, it seems that a lot of currently excited nubile young women ain't been protecting their own ass on this issue the last several years--decades really. That may or may not be about to change now that the obvious and inevitable has actually occured.
(I suspect the 'leak' came from the authoritarian (self-proclaimed 'conservative') side of the Court. I suspect they're trying to lock in the five right-winger votes.)
"If the court rules against Roe they will be going against the
will of a majority of Americans."
Two to one. Americans would prefer that Roe v Wade remain standing by two to one. The right-wingers are aggressively pushing minority rule on many fronts, this one included. They think (probably correctly) that this is their last chance to seize and hold that power. I gotta hope they've overplayed their hand--but they got no other choice--this is near'bout their last chance to win a hand against a democratically governed America. They gotta try to force it through, or they gotta give it up and accept a democratically governed America as their future. They ain't gonna accept that without a fight. So, the fight's on.
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"Russia will also have the problem of advertising."
Yeah. I read that their 'smart' weapons have been showing an overall failure rate near'bouts 60%.
Today will constitute the third day of the battle on the grounds of the plant.
I wish we were doing more. I feel like those poor people have been left on their own to die.
What if NATO or the US just said they would evacuate all people from the plant? The Russians could send an observer to make sure there were no booby traps left behind.
You seem to be engaged in a little bit of loose thinking on this subject. You first refer to the 'poor people have been left on their own to die.' I presume you there meant the civilians who'd taken to bomb sheltering in the steelworks.
Later you write of evacuating 'all people' under the auspices of the United States and/or NATO.
First off, we'd need to identify whom you want us to go in and save--the civilians or the soldiers or both. And, if both, do you expect the same rules to apply to both?
I meant all people in the plant. Civilians, soldiers, wounded or not.
Russia would then really control Mariupol. At least for now. That is the price paid for those lives.
NATO sending in military forces to 'rescue' Ukrainian (non-NATO) military forces, whether wounded or not, is likely to be called 'World War III' in tomorrow's history books. (Same with American military forces taking the field in Ukraine against Russian forces already in place and in combat.)
I was afraid you'd say that.
The United Nations is sending in another convoy to Mariupol today in the hopes of getting the remaining civilians out. (And perhaps even including the wounded soldiers who should be classified as currently 'hors de combat'). WaPo Such limited success as has been had to date has been under the eyes of the United Nations and the International Red Cross/Red Crescent. If anybody's gonna get more people out it'll be recognized relief agencies such as these.
Got it.
Second option...can the Ukrainians get some air, drones or planes, near there to take out some of the Russian air capability or artillery?
This second option is if they can't get the Russians to let out more people.
For now anyway.
Probably not enough to stop the shelling. (They're getting hit from the Russian ships on the Sea of Azov among other points of attack.)
How about one side? Break up the Russian circle?
The fight is elsewhere. There's really nothing left of Mariupol except rubble. There is no city anymore.
The Azov Brigade are still down under that steelworks because they won't come out and surrender, and there's nowhere for them to escape to, and the Russians won't move on entirely either (most of the Russians are gone--couple thousand there keeping the Ukrainians busy keeping them out of the warrens under the steelworks.) But, Mariupol is gone. This has already become the Ukrainian version of Kobanî.
Meanwhile…
"Emboldened by sophisticated weapons and long-range
artillery provided by the West, Ukraine went on the offensive
against Russian forces in northeast Ukraine on Friday, seeking
to drive them back from outside two critical cities."
NYT
NBC Nightly News tells me that today's escapees from Mariupol were kidnapped by the Russians to what they call 'filtration' camps in Russian controlled Ukrainian territory--probably to be absconded into Russia itself in a few days. (After they try to find any partisans might be among 'em.)
That explains why the Russians were so willing to let them evacuate.
Meanwhile, near Snake Island, it appears that another Russian flagship is on fire.
A little early for 'Victory Day', but perhaps another Russian ship will wander in close enough on Monday.
"That explains why the Russians were so willing to let them evacuate."
Also explains why they only got 50 people on the bus today.
The Ukrainians seem to be preparing for a couple of days of heavy shelling from the Russians, a sort of 'tantrum' leading up to a Russian 'Victory Day' celebration without any significant victories for the Russians to celebrate.
Supposedly there's gonna be a Russian parade through the corpse of Mariupol, although that seems like asking for trouble, so the Ruskies may yet have second thoughts 'bout that.
They have been going to a lot of trouble cleaning up the theater they bombed. That might have another purpose than to hide the many bodies that were probably still in the rubble.
The approximately 50 Azovstal refugees who'd been taken to Russian held territory on Friday were later released to Ukrainian held territory. (They didn't think they'd get caught or something? Whatever--they were allowed to return to Ukrainian held territory after it came to light they'd been spirited east at first.)
Snake Island seems to be very popular lately.
There is also a rumor going round that Ukraine went after, and hit, a Russian sub in the Black Sea. No word on if that is really true or not.
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