On Thursday June 23, 2016 the United
Kingdom voted to leave the European Union. As you may recall I wrote a post regarding the possibility of a Grexit. I never considered for a moment that it would end up being a Brexit. I have been
listening to various people, reading, and watching coverage
of this event. What many are calling an historic event, which in my
humble opinion I agree with. So many people who are analyzing what
went wrong and what will be. While I wanted to post on this,
because it is extremely important, affecting so many areas of the
world, I know that I will probably not be able to add much to the
analysis that has already occurred. So I will just add my thoughts.
As an American I can certainly
understand people's desire to control their own destiny rather than
leave that to others. But as a concerned citizen of the world I have
to wonder if people have forgotten how easily it is to fall into
violent conflict, even in supposedly modern states such as the
countries of Europe. WWI and WWII are not that long ago. Lest
people forget, that was part of the reason that the European Union
was created, to bind people together in an effort to avoid those
types of conflicts in the future. It was also formed as a trading
block to, hopefully, bring prosperity to those who were its members.
From my view from across the pond it would appear that to this date
it has actually performed those two functions quite well. And
perhaps that is part of the problem now, because it has been so
successful it is a desirable destination for many who are in
desperate need of a safe haven. The strain on the various countries
of Europe to absorb mass migrations of people is putting huge stress
on a system that was put in place so long ago. We in America have
also had to deal with illegal immigrants, but not to the ratio of
newcomers to natives that we are seeing in Europe at this time.
The world is facing so many challenges
today, wars in the Middle East, economic uncertainty in many
countries, a climate that may not be so desirable in the future, a
general disgust with our political leaders, to the point that we
would just like to replace all of them. But isolationism, the
attraction of an authoritarian type of leader, are all things we
have tried in the past. They didn't work then, and they won't work
now. The Brexit, the attraction of a man like Donald Trump in the
US, or a Putin in Russia, seem to me to be all signs of fear of a
change that we probably can't avoid. Perhaps it is better to face
our fear rather than run from it. Start looking beyond the sound
bites that are being thrown at us and start trying to find out what
the facts really are. Because in the long run it is ourselves, and
our ability to judge what is or is not, that we need to rely on, not
a talking head on television.
What will happen with the Brexit? No
one knows for sure. I hope that it turns out well for our friends in the UK.
I wish them and the rest of Europe the best. They are all important
friends and allies of my country. I also hope that my fellow
countrymen and women choose wisely in November, because some votes
have long lasting consequences.
Update:
I have a couple of things to add to this post that you, my readers, may find of interest. I have received an objection to my suggestion regarding the ratio of immigrants to natives in Europe compared to the ratio in the US. My reader suggested that I was not correct and provided the following links as substantiation.
US immigrant population over time
Numbers for Europe
I do note, though, that in table number 1 in that second link there are five countries that appear to surpass the US, Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Germany and Spain. The numbers for the European countries do include immigrants from other European countries.
I was also sent a link to a very informative talk about the consequences of a Brexit.
I have a couple of things to add to this post that you, my readers, may find of interest. I have received an objection to my suggestion regarding the ratio of immigrants to natives in Europe compared to the ratio in the US. My reader suggested that I was not correct and provided the following links as substantiation.
US immigrant population over time
Numbers for Europe
I do note, though, that in table number 1 in that second link there are five countries that appear to surpass the US, Austria, Ireland, Sweden, Germany and Spain. The numbers for the European countries do include immigrants from other European countries.
I was also sent a link to a very informative talk about the consequences of a Brexit.
65 comments:
I noticed today that membership in the E.U. is actually more unpopular in France than it was in Great Britain.
But it will take someone calling for a vote, as did David Cameron, for there to be actual action taken upon that unpopularity.
And apparently there were various circumstances inherent in the political climate of Great Britain that may have led to this outcome.
But be that as it may there is a possibility of others following in the United Kingdoms's shoes. Marcus certainly is hoping so.
Hmmm.."United Kingdoms's shoes" should be "United Kingdom's shoes".
"Marcus certainly is hoping so."
It's not enough for him to hope that Sweden secedes; Putin wants more than just for the E.U. to lose small member states at the edges.
Nope. Ain't biting. Try some of that fractioning with Pete.
Putin wants more than just for the E.U. to lose small member states at the edges.
Putin wants the EU broken up to make it easier to bully the individual countries that make up Europe.
Iraqi generals are declaring Fallujah to be ‘fully liberated’. It's been almost a week since the first time the liberation of Fallujah was announced. (Last time by the Iraqi Prime Minister.) The article is unclear on how much of Fallujah happens to still be standing.
We have here a fairly superficial analysis of the rise of nationalism as a response to globalization. It doesn't get real deep, but it's probably worth a look, as it's not too long either.
I'll have to check out the links later. I was listening to a good video last night that someone had sent me regarding the possible consequences of the Brexit. I will probably do an update to the post when I get a chance. I've been running around like crazy trying to clean stuff up at the house and shift things around for the window people.
But I wanted to leave a quick comment. I just listened to Farage address the EU and I gotta say, while I never thought it possible, I just saw a Donald Trump clone...British style. If I had been a member of that body I'd have booed too.
I missed that--BBC morning news went off the air just about 30 seconds into his address. He'd just congratulated himself for getting Britain out of the E.U. and reminded them that they'd laughed at him 15 years ago when he started his crusade. I think that got him his first "booed", about 30 seconds into his opening statements, but then BBC went off.
The House ‘Select’ Committee on Benghazi has finally issued it's report. No new facts; no new data; lots of adjectives. They seem to think that's gonna be enough. I don't think so.
Suicide bombings in Istanbul's airport. ‘A senior U.S. counterterrorism official told NBC News the Istanbul attack ‘fits the ISIS profile, not PKK.’’ NBCNews At least three bombers, anywhere from 10 to 50 reported dead already.
I think they have the numbers at 37 dead and 147 wounded now.
Marcus has indicated a belief that the public polls are skewed against Donald Trump. (Trump likes to say so, as do many editors and pundits who incorrectly predicted Trump's fall from Republican Primary graces.) Politico.com says this is not so.
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Bloomberg does a piece on how globalization has been good for the poor in poorer countries, who've been picking up jobs that used to get done within the more advanced economies, and very good for the very rich everywhere, very good for the .01%. Not so good for the middle class in advanced economies though.
Lee: "Marcus has indicated a belief that the public polls are skewed against Donald Trump. (Trump likes to say so, as do many editors and pundits who incorrectly predicted Trump's fall from Republican Primary graces.) Politico.com says this is not so."
I'm not sure when or where I said that, but I might have spoken in that direction. Nevertheless I THINK (mind you THINK) there might be something to it.
I take that from Sweden where the Sweden Democrats (SD) have fared way better in actual elections than in polls before those elections. There's a 30-50% discrepancy there. (obviously I'm not suggesting the same level of discrepancy in the US)
There are two reasons for this. One is that the underlying dataset of those polls might be wrong. As in the poll is conducted in a way that leaves some set of the population out or in other ways tweak the results.
The second (the main one in Sweden) is the "shame factor" where some of those polled lies or refuses to give an answer because their true answer is deemed un-PC.
We have had some teachers in Sweden and more union representatives bullied out of their jobs or tasks because they expressed a SD allegience. So if you're in a job that demands you to be PC and SD aren't considered PC and someone (you don't know who) callls you up and ask about your political leanings - you might well decide that answering SD is not such a safe idea, even if that's the way you're gonna vote.
I think this is less of an issue in the US. I think you have a much more entrenched freedom of speech than we do. And I think it's easier to be a Trump supporter in the US than an SD supporter in Sweden. But I still think Trump might be underestimated in polls for just about the same reasons, although not to the same degree.
In the election of 2010 most polls just before the elections had SD at about 3.5% and the main debate was wether this "racist" party would get past the 4% barrier and into parliament.
Result: 5.6%
In the election of 2014 everyone knew SD was in Parliament to stay but the question was how much they would grow. Most polls had them at about 7-8%.
Result: 12.9%
You see the discrepancy between polls and results?
BTW, now the polls for SD stand at about 17-19% and you can just do some of that simple math to realise they most likely would get 25+ if we had an election here today. If not the biggest party in the next election (which I believe) then certainly #2.
Lee: "I noticed today that membership in the E.U. is actually more unpopular in France than it was in Great Britain."
If Marine Le Pen becomes the next president of France in 2017 then the EU is more or less cooked, finished, sent into the scrap bin.
My guess though is that Marine might/will come out on top with the most votes in the first voting session, but not getting close to 50%.
Then the outcome will depend on which one of the two other canditdates, Hollande (or his successor) to the left, or Sarkozy (or a new hopeful) to the right that clinches the second place.
In the second elections the traditional left and traditional right will close ranks against the new-comer Le Pen. And win. And the EU will remain for a few more years at least.
Lee:
"We have here a fairly superficial analysis of the rise of nationalism as a response to globalization. It doesn't get real deep, but it's probably worth a look, as it's not too long either."
That was an interesting read and I found myself nodding in agreement to a lot of it.
A few things I disagree with. First of all I think the analogy between developments in Europe and the US are not at all so similar as the author makes them out to be.
Second, he makes the same damned mistake as I've seen spoken so much that the anger and resentment is supposed to come only from the "poor working white folks who lost out".
I'm white. I'm white collar. My job security isn't threatened at all. I am not a low income individual. And, frankly I'm no racist eiter - in the traditional and accurate sence. Xenophobe - maybe, depending on the definition of it. In good company then with Dalai Lama who recently said Germany must not be allowed to become an Arab nation. Neither should Sweden IMO.
"You see the discrepancy between polls and results?"
In the United States it's long been called ‘the Bradley Effect’, in honor a famous instance involving Ben Bradley (black candidate) who polled much higher than he eventually got. However, Politico says the data doesn't actually support a claim of polling bias against Trump, no matter how much he'd like to claim one, and most Trump supporters are too far over the top to give a damn what a pollster thinks of their choices.
Lee: "However, Politico says the data doesn't actually support a claim of polling bias against Trump, no matter how much he'd like to claim one, and most Trump supporters are too far over the top to give a damn what a pollster thinks of their choices."
As I said, I don't really know the US political climate. I just gave some examples to where you shouldn't trust polls so much.
Also: Brexit was a vote against mass immigration. Nothing else. There were other issues but THAT was the main thing. Englanders wanting England to remain english. All the other stuff is just white noice.
Also: Brexit was a vote against mass immigration.
I suspect you are right. And in reality it didn't matter if the migration was from within Europe or without. Bottom line is that people identify more with their native country than an entity such as the E.U. The exceptions would be those who are intimately affected by membership in the E.U., such as the one British woman who is married to a Polish man. While I may call myself a world citizen I am first and foremost an American.
As for polls, who was it who was saying that many people don't even take polls anymore? They don't want to take the time or are tired of the questions that are at times not at all straight forward. I, myself, rarely take polls. If there are a lot of people out there like me, who don't like Trump and who don't take polls, there is the possibility that Trump's numbers could actually be lower. We won't really know until November.
I started the article on nationalism last night, but I was so tired from trying to get some of the house back in order that I only managed to read a little of it. I will finish it later. Yes, I suspect there is actually more similarity to Boris Johnson and Donald Trump than their hair. ;)
I hope people take note of that come November when they are trying to pick a president. Watch closely how well this Brexit works out for the U.K.
Btw, if you get the chance watch that video I posted from my anonymous reader. It is good.
Petes wants to be known as ‘anonymous reader’ now?
Nate Silver, he of fivethirtyeight.com fame, has run his numbers and gives it 79% odds Clinton beats Trump.
A "refugee" tells his tale:
http://paiwandgah.af/a-returning-migrant-tells-his-tale-of-struggle-and-disillusion/
As I've said before the majority are economic migrants, not actual refugees.
"…the majority are economic migrants, not actual refugees."
I'm not sure there's the bright line distinction between the two that you seem to imagine. And, in any case, I'm not sure it matters. They're still comin’; ya'll still lettin’ ‘em in.
By the time Nate Silver got home to his own website at FiveThirtyEight.Com, he'd managed to round Hillary's odd up to an even 80%.
Lee: "I'm not sure there's the bright line distinction between the two that you seem to imagine. And, in any case, I'm not sure it matters. They're still comin’; ya'll still lettin’ ‘em in."
There might not be that bright line. But heretoforth all of 'em could come in under the banner "refugee". Thus even starting to distinguish is a step in the right direction.
And as for "ya'll still lettin’ ‘em in", nope, that was last year. In case you haven't noticed there's been a real tightening up of things since then. Too late IMO and also too little but definetly steps in the right direction. There can be no doubt about that. We won't see another million man march towards Germany anytime soon.
Quest interviews Farage on CNN:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYOqSW7VAsk
My opinion is that a lot of the Brexit-analysis so far has bordered on hysteria. The UK leaves the EU and the world comes apart! Really? Why?
I think what many are really afraid of is how WELL the UK will do.
Another great interview of Farage mainly for the american audience:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FiZ90wz9eI
Farage on immigration:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UW_oXEksqh8
The Australia-way is clearly the only sane way to go. The EU beuraeucrats debates quotas instead.
Lee: "Nate Silver, he of fivethirtyeight.com fame, has run his numbers and gives it 79% odds Clinton beats Trump."
I'd give her 55 to 45. Not as bad as tossin´a coin but not much better.
"…mainly for the american audience"
You go ‘way beyond merely arguing that Sweden should withdraw from the E.U. or the Schengen Agreement. It's seemingly important to you that E.U. be weakened if not broken up entirely.
Petes wants to be known as ‘anonymous reader’ now?
Lol!
I'm sure that if Petes had something he wanted to say he'd do it. I have never considered him shy. But I couldn't just post links that I hadn't dug up without some kind of attribution. It didn't seem right.
"I'd give her 55 to 45."
Silver has an outstanding track record with his predictions, which is the only reason I bring his numbers to people's attention.
Or, in other words…
I'm goin’ with Silver on this one instead of with you.
I think what many are really afraid of is how WELL the UK will do.
The UK might do very well. Obviously they were a rich nation before the advent of the E.U. I don't know about Lee, but my primary concern isn't that the UK will fade away, or even that the EU will be less financially sound. They already have problems in that line as we saw with Greece. It is that uncertainty and turmoil invite weeds to grow. We have seen something like that in the Middle East. While I don't really believe that Europe will fall into some kind of active conflict between any of the countries it does give an opening for meddling by outsiders.
I was talking to a neighbor the other night. I was disappointed to find that he was a Trump supporter. I told him I would be cancelling out his vote.
Having said that, and not going so far as to predict the outcome of the general election in November, I will say that it wouldn't surprise me if Trump lost.
"… and not going so far as to predict the outcome of the general election…"
Silver has an extraordinary track record on these things. I'm goin’ with Silver; 55/45 might be the margin of Clinton's win--ten points sounds ‘bout right to me.
Coupla things folks might want to keep in mind going forward:
There's not much interest in news articles which read: ‘Nothing's changed; Trump's still toast come November’. People don't read ‘em with anticipation, so editors don't want ‘em, so reporters are gonna spend lot's of effort between now and November trying to find ways to make it seem like Trump's still in the game.
Ya wanna know what the odds really are: Follow Nate Silver at FiveThiryEight.Com.
It looks like the attack in Istanbul has been laid at Daesh's door and was committed by Russian fighters from Raqqa. I have a feeling that as Daesh's territory shrinks we will find fighters spinning off like whirling dervishes landing in all sorts of places to commit as much mayhem as possible.
I think someone may need to answer some questions about this.
The handwritten letter relays a desperate message: "S.O.S. Please help me."
"I think someone may need to answer some questions…"
Yeah, looks like something may have legs. Gonna need to be dealt with.
Lee: "It's seemingly important to you that E.U. be weakened if not broken up entirely."
I want the EU to have less powers yes. You might call that a "weakened" EU I guess. In the shape the EU is today and the direction it's headed I'd be voting for Swexit if I got the chance.
"I'd be voting for Swexit if I got the chance."
As I said before, you appear to clearly have grander designs than merely to free Sweden from the E.U.
Lee: "As I said before, you appear to clearly have grander designs than merely to free Sweden from the E.U."
My preference would be a remaining EU but in sort of a back to basics form, kinda like the old EG. A trade union with very limited other powers over nations. We have an EU president now, one that no one gets to vote for. What the hell do we need an unelected president in Brussels for?
Failing that "weakened" EU I want out of it completely because I think that would be better for Sweden and myself. And since I want out of it I can't very well hold the opinion other nations and peoples should remain in this dysfunctional powergrabbing political attempt at superstatehood. That'd be their choice though.
Open borders is another thing I'd like to see dissapear. I remember when I was a kid and we holidayed in Europe by car and drove from country to country. Most often you just flashed a passport and was waved through. It was only a matter of slowing the car down a bit while you drove through customs unless customs saw a reason to check you out. Today many scaremongers in media talk about the old Europe with borders as if it was some sort of oppressive regime where you couldn't move about. That was never the case. The main beneficiaries of open borders are criminals and economic migrants, IMO.
Why don't you do an AU with open borders all over the Americas and get yourself an unelected president in Nicuaragua and have some shadowy parliament there write the bulk of your laws? See how you'd like that Lee.
Marcus,
Are the powers you would prefer the E.U. to have less of have more to do with the movements of peoples(either from outside or inside the E.U.) or more financially oriented? Because it does seem as if some have benefited more than others. While I think the E.U. has been a success in what it was originally designed to do, it may have been an uneven success. It could do with some tweaking, but an all out breakup seems to be extreme.
Ahh, you can ignore my comment. You just answered it quite well.
Lynnette, I might add one thing to it. It's insanity to have the Euro as common currency. Sweden got to vote on that and for once we voted right and stayed out of it (because the people actually got to vote in a referendum - otherwise we'd be in it). To have the same currency in so extremely different economic systems can only lead to problems, as we saw in the not near completed Greek tragedy. That's not over BTW and we will see more crisis in the future because of the common currency.
On another topic, I noticed article on CNN this morning.
As a recruitment tool, ISIS may have hit more than one target in Istanbul to sweeten the allure of its brand. Not just the wanton killing and egregious mutilation of so many travelers but as a rallying call for more jihadists, from all points over the globe.
The slant of that article was that Daesh was reaching out to recruits in Russia by using fighters from the former Soviet Union's territories. My take would be a little different. Perhaps I'm paranoid, but it seems that Daesh may be sending Putin a message. By using Russians to attack Istanbul Daesh may be saying that Russia is also vulnerable to attacks within its territory.
To have the same currency in so extremely different economic systems can only lead to problems, as we saw in the not near completed Greek tragedy.
Yes. That does not allow enough flexibility for various countries to tailor their responses to economic crises.
Now I'm off to do my endless round of errands. At least I managed to get some work done around the house this week, so maybe I will find some free time this weekend. That, along with some good news from a friend, and so far it's started out well, anyway. :)
Lynnette: "The slant of that article was that Daesh was reaching out to recruits in Russia by using fighters from the former Soviet Union's territories."
I'm not so sure. Might just be that those fighters were the ones best prepared. It's been alledged before that the leaders of Daesh are mostly Iraqi many of whom have experience from Saddams old security agencies. But that the most professient shock troops are Checnyans. Everyone from the Ukraine to Caukasus to the Middle East fear facing Chechnyans, it's said. Bad ass hardened fighters, regardless of which side they fight for.
Lynnette: "My take would be a little different. Perhaps I'm paranoid, but it seems that Daesh may be sending Putin a message. By using Russians to attack Istanbul Daesh may be saying that Russia is also vulnerable to attacks within its territory."
Rather perhaps sending Erdogan a message now that he's trying to mend fences with Putin, under the gallows so to speak.
Turkey is in a bad situation and the would be Sultan overplayed his cards. The strife with Russia over that shot down plane cost Turkey 4 millon annual russian tourists, and the fighting with the Kurds and now Daesh has scared off western tourists as well. Entire regions of previously prosperous tourist destinations are more of less empty. Which makes unemployment rampant and tax collections to dwindle.
The Sultan thought he was sneaky and smart, propping up Daesh and letting in any foreign fighter that wanted to go join them. He did this to counter the Kurds and create problems for Assad. He seems not to have thought about the backlash. Now he's made enemies on all sides and reaps a whirlwind of shit.
Geez, stop to take a break for lunch and I see all sort of things have been happening.
It looks like they have a serious hostage situation in Bangladesh, with about 20 hostages in a cafe in Dhaka. Strange, I almost linked to an article this morning about another person hacked to death there, a priest who was out picking flowers. It seems to be getting worse over there.
And then, tucked down in CNN's list of news articles I see that Taiwan accidentally launched a missile at China, killing a fishing boat captain. I see some serious shoals popping up in that relationship.
Rather perhaps sending Erdogan a message now that he's trying to mend fences with Putin, under the gallows so to speak.
Could be. Or it could be a handy twofer.
"Now he's made enemies on all sides…"
And yet he remains capable of forcing the E.U. to come begging for his help, and bearing gifts to boot. And his voting base seems still loyal.
Twenty hostages killed in the attack on the cafe in Dhaka. Whatever Bangladeshi authorities have been doing to combat terrorists within their country isn't working. It is long past time that they admit they have a problem and get some help in dealing with it, even if it is just asking for advice or training
May all the innocent people killed in this latest attack, and those who have went before, rest in peace.
Lee: "And yet he remains capable of forcing the E.U. to come begging for his help, and bearing gifts to boot. And his voting base seems still loyal."
There's the EU for you. Incapable of defending its own borders and having to resort to a deal with the Sultan of Ankara only not to be overrun completely.
And for all the doom and gloom the UK stock market hits a 5 year high despite Brexit:
http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/685216/FTSE-100-leaps-to-HIGHEST-level-since-2015-just-a-week-after-Brexit
Now that wasn't supposed to happen, was it?
Lynnette: "It looks like they have a serious hostage situation in Bangladesh, with about 20 hostages in a cafe in Dhaka. Strange"
It wasn't strange at all. It just took some time because the killers thought they had to go through the crowd to see if there were any devout muslims in there. If they could recite the Koran they were let go. The rest were killed.
Then they're not only killing "non believing" bloggers apparently in Bangladesh they sort out non-muslims for slaugther wholesale.
Kinda puts the Myanmar oppressions against immigrated muslim Bangladeshi Rhyonga-people in another perspective, doesn't it?
OK, so the Burmese are heahy handed, but what't the option when dealing with Islamic fanatics?
"Kinda puts the Myanmar oppressions against immigrated muslim
Bangladeshi Rhyonga-people in another perspective, doesn't it?"
Not so much, no. The solution to religious fanaticism is almost certainly not to respond with reciprocal religious intolerance. The Muslim jihadi want to turn this into ‘Islam against the rest’; reciprocating with blanket religious intolerance against even non-jihadi Muslims will merely facilitate that goal. You will help convince the rest of the Muslims that the jihadi got it right.
You will help convince the rest of the Muslims that the jihadi got it right.
He's right, Marcus. By targeting Muslims they are merely doing the same thing as those who are separating people by sect in various countries in the Middle East. All it will lead to is more violence. You are just playing into the hands of those who would drive a wedge between peoples as well as stooping to their level. The same questions we asked ourselves about torture can be asked about this. Are we not better than that?
F..ck... Yeah you're right. I spoke out without thinking and that statement was just rubbish. And you were right to correct me on it.
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