The World in 2050

In the 1970's James Lovelock came up with a theory that “organisms interact with their inorganic surroundings on Earth to form a self-regulating, complex system that contributes to maintaining the conditions for life on the planet.” This was called the Gaia Hypothesis. 

But what exactly does that mean for us? If, as he theorized, our actions are part of a “self-regulating” system, how are other parts of that system reacting to us? Perhaps we are already starting to see the beginnings of that reaction in the droughts, floods and unseasonable temperatures we have been experiencing in various regions of the world.

How will our future be colored by this changing climate?

I think it's time for another book recommendation. This time the book is The World in 2050, by Laurence C. Smith. I know I have mentioned it before, but since we have been seeing some rather extreme weather recently here in the States I thought it might be interesting to revisit it.

Obviously, predictions are not set in stone. Lovelock and others have revamped their opinions on climate change as being alarmist.

However that doesn't necessarily mean they are entirely wrong. So, to continue with my book synopsis …

Smith has listed four forces that are affecting our world and will shape our future. They are demographics, human demand for natural resources, globalization, and climate change. As you may have noted all four have our sticky little fingers all over them. Unless, of course, you are of the “humans are not a factor in climate change” ilk. Then you would not attribute the last item on that list to us.

In 1950 there were two megacities of ten million or more, New York(12.3) and Tokyo(11.3). In 2025 there are projected to be twenty nine, with the first five being Tokyo(36.4), Mumbai(26.4), Delhi(22.5), Dhaka, Bangladesh(22), and Sao Paulo, Brazil(21.4). Smith estimated that the world population stood at one billion in 1800 A.D., and reached six billion in 1999. Currently we appear to be adding a billion people every twelve years. That's a lot of people to feed, clothe and provide care for. The demand on Earth's natural resources will only continue to grow. All at a time when climate change is starting to rock our world.

The most important resource for human life is water, without it we would perish. With climate change will come feast or famine in terms of water. Literally. Too much at the wrong time and crops will flood out, too little and they will die of thirst. There is likely to be rising tensions over water supplies, with the Nile, Jordan, Tigris-Euphrates and Indus rivers cited as likely points of contention. According to climate models precipitation will increase in Canada, Alaska, Scandinavia, and Russia. It will be southern Europe, western North America, the Middle East, and southern Africa who are the losers in the water lottery.

Smith is optimistic that we will adapt to our changing world and it's climate. He has cited past agreements over water usage and the fact that global trade will provide goods where they are needed.

While I have touched on the highlights, there are other factors, such as the changing economic fortunes of various countries, that will play a role in our future.

The World in 2050 is an interesting and thought provoking read. Not just because of what it says, but also because of what it doesn't say. If you read it you will note he seems to focus on the Northern hemisphere, but says little about the Southern's future. And there is little thought about what it may take for people to adapt. Personally I am not so sure that adaptation will come easily or cheaply.

One more thing I want to touch on is abrupt climate change.  Smith writes that core samples taken from the Greenland Ice Sheet have shown evidence of extreme swings in temperature in "less than a decade and as quickly as three years".   "Precipitation doubled in as little as a single year."  The conclusion by Richard B. Alley, who took the samples, was that "the extreme rapidity of these changes implied some sort of threshold or trigger in the North Atlantic climate system."  The slowdown of the global thermohaline circulation would be that trigger. For that to happen there would need to be a large infusion of fresh water into the North Atlantic.  As Smith notes there is a rather large source of fresh water located in the middle of the North Atlantic, the Greenland Ice Sheet.