This 4th of July we find ourselves still struggling to find unity in times of strife. We have recent Supreme Court rulings that have overturned long term precedent. If there is one thing that can be said of my country, it is that it is always changing. Sometimes for the better, sometimes not. Time will tell how we deal with those changes. But I still have faith that we can be what was dreamed of by those who found themselves on our shores, despite the actions of a few.
We just need to give everyone a chance to be what they are meant to be. We need to believe in freedom for everyone, not just a few. We need to believe in the dream of America.
A message from some friends:
If there is anyone who understands what happens when freedom is lost, it is our friends in Ukraine. I hope that someday they will be celebrating the liberation of their country and can enjoy what we have come to take for granted.
Happy July 4th and Slava Ukraini!
58 comments:
I heard a rumor that the Ukrainians have found the weak spot in Russia's defense.
If that's true, and if, for some reason, the Russians can't fill that gap with their superior air power, then that'll be a good thing.
(Maybe even vindicate Ukraine's policy of continued probing for just such weaknesses rather than charging headlong into fortified Russian positions.)
It sounds like they took out quite a few Russian artillery units the other day, which have been posing a serious challenge to advancing. I hope they have stretched the Russian lines thin enough so that they do start to weaken.
We're left to wonder whether Erdoğan was bribed or threatened or both to get Sweden's passage into NATO. My guess is that it was a little of both. I'm guessing Biden will now find a way to clear the way for the upgrades Türkiye wanted for its aging F-16 fleet, which upgrades Congress had blocked after Türkiye held up the accession to NATO for Finland and Sweden. Erdoğan will now get those upgrades, but he won't get much more, if anything.
Score one more for the 'doddering' old Biden.
It sounds like in addition to the F-16's Sweden is supporting Turkey's inclusion in the EU.
I still think it is accurate to credit Biden with helping in this deal, though.
"I still think it is accurate to credit Biden with helping in this
deal, though."
Yeah, the Swedish support for Türkiye's E.U. bid is just a fig leaf for Erdoğan to show 'round back home. The E.U. has already formally declared that Türkiye is no longer an acceptable candidate for membership in the E.U. (Not since Erdoğan's crackdown against democracy beginning after the failed 2016 coup attempt against him.) That determination came out of E.U. headquarters in Brussels, not Stockholm. What Sweden does or does not 'support' ain't gonna change nothin'. Plus the rest of the E.U. sees it as blackmail. More of Erdoğan being Erdoğan, and they're pretty much fed up with that already.
Headline: Erdogan Just Doomed Turkey's EU Membership, as if it weren't already a dead letter.
Printed in Bloomberg
(I can't get that one to open for me; you may have better luck.)
Reprinted in WaPo
Just a quick off topic comment here. I noticed the extreme flooding going on out east. Here we can't even buy any rain. Even if I pour water on the garden and lawn we get high winds and temps that dry everything out again. My town has an odd/even sprinkling ban as well as no sprinkling between 10am and 7pm. I do try to adhere to it, because I know the reasoning behind it. I know that underground sprinkling is just masking the problem. Eventually even that won't be allowed if things get worse.
I always thought the tipping point on climate change would be around 2050, then I dropped it down to 2040. Now I'm wondering if we will reach 2030.
Bloomberg just does a fade and I couldn't open WAPO either. I forget what I need to disable to do that.
But it does sound like Erdogan is moving the goalposts with his EU bid now. I think we can be sure he won't get the F-16's if he continues on that path. I guess we'll see what's more important to him.
Russia is already screaming that Turkey is an "unfriendly" country. They weren't too happy with Erdogan's letting those Azovstal commanders go back to Ukraine before the war ended.
Btw, whatever happened to Hungary? I thought they were dragging their feet on Sweden's NATO membership as well?
"I forget what I need to disable to do that."
Turn off the javascripting.
"Btw, whatever happened to Hungary?"
Orban doesn't have the balls to hold this one up on his own, without Erdoğan givin' him cover. (And nothing in it for Orban--what with Putin lookin' increasingly shaky in the Kremlin.)
Word has it that cluster munitions provided by the US are already in Ukraine.
And nothing in it for Orban--what with Putin lookin' increasingly shaky in the Kremlin.
Others should realize that too. Supporting Putin isn't going to pay off.
"Word has it that cluster munitions provided by the US are
already in Ukraine."
I know the Russians been making that claim, especially their military blogger contingent. And I wouldn't expect an announcement from our side--Biden's trying hard to not let it turn into a big deal.
"Others should realize that too."
In case Erdoğan hasn't figured that out yet, he needs to listen up. I read that Russian TV has recently been referring to Türkiye as an "unfriendly country". (Has especially to do with Türkiye releasing those captured Azov Battalion troops back to Ukraine, but Erdoğan folding his hand against Sweden ain't exactly what Putin wanted to see either.)
________________________________
Russia lost a couple more generals this past week. Had a two-star general (equivalent) killed in action and a one-star general (equivalent) got 'dismissed' for bitchin' up the command channels about how the army wasn't supplying his soldiers with necessary combat support--not enough supporting artillery fire for a major complaint. (There were others, but that seemed to be the big one with him.)
The notable thing about the one-star general is that he didn't go quietly. After he was stripped of his command (and perhaps also stripped of his rank--don't know for sure 'bout that part) he made sure his bitches got publicized for the Russian civilian population to see.
There still be trouble in Putin's paradise.
Maybe Erdoğan oughta take notice of that as well.
And I wouldn't expect an announcement from our side--Biden's trying hard to not let it turn into a big deal.
They are reporting on CNN that cluster munitions have arrived in Ukraine. But the ones that were used earlier by Ukraine may have come from their own stock. Once they learned that the US would send more they used some of theirs. That was what one Ukrainian vlogger said.
he made sure his bitches got publicized for the Russian civilian population to see.
There still be trouble in Putin's paradise.
I think word is getting out from regular Russian troops as well.
Putin has problems. You can't arrest or kill everyone. Someone has to be left to fight. Or more like die in Ukraine. There was a report of 200 Russian losses just the other day.
"They are reporting on CNN that cluster munitions have
arrived in Ukraine."
And the Biden administration was quick to confirm it. (Again, playing it down; no big deal; not worthy of dissembling or evasion. They even had the confirmation issued by the Pentagon; not a big enough deal to actually involve the White House directly.)
________________________________
WaPo published a staff piece reviewing Türkiye's ongoing pivot away from Putin and back towards 'the Collective West', where he's not unreservedly welcome these days.
(Disable java temporarily, for this page anyway.)
________________________________
Word is Putin has suddenly noticed that 'private military companies', a/k/a mercenary soldiers, e.g. Wagner PMC, are illegal, banned by the extant Russian Constitution. Whoda thunk it?
Disable java temporarily, for this page anyway.)
That worked. I don't think they gave a good reason for Erdogan's about face on Sweden or the return of the Azovstal commanders. Was it a deal with Biden or was it really just the perception of Putin's weakness after the Wagner "rebellion"? Or is he that concerned over Turkey's economy?
Word is that the Wagner rebellion isn't over.
"Was it a deal with Biden or was it really just the
perception of Putin's weakness after the Wagner "rebellion"?
Or is he that concerned over Turkey's economy?"
Well, there's three reasons they gave, succinctly summarized right there ↑↑.
If you mean they didn't flag one of them as "THE" reason--well, that's true too. But I didn't fault 'em for that.
________________________________
"Word is that the Wagner rebellion isn't over."
I'd bet agin that rumor if I had to bet; which I don't; so I won't; ‛cause that story ain't all been told, and the missing parts aren't clear to me.
"Word is that the Wagner rebellion isn't over."
According to one vlogger 13 Russian higher command officials have been arrested, 15, including Popov of that famous video, have been dismissed. Russian soldiers on the front line, who are seriously pissed off, are posting videos saying they have no ammo and when they drive to try to get some they are turned back. They are not being trusted not to mutiny. One unit has 2 guns for 22 people. They are angry with commanders who in their incompetence have brought on the deaths of fellow soldiers. These are soldiers who fought in Chechnya and Ukraine back in 2014. They are not inexperienced.
Remember those cheering crowds when Prigozhin left? Still there.
Wagner convoys of soldiers have been seen traveling into Belarus. Did they turn in all of their weapons? Word is, no.
No, the story isn't finished.
"…they have no ammo…"
Were that true, one would think the Ukrainian army would be running right over them by now, and then chasing the ones who ran before getting crushed. It'd be Kharkiv all over again, but it's not.
(Grain of salt, maybe a full shaker of salt, seems to be in order here.)
________________________________
The British Defense Minister, who recently publicly took Zelenskyy to task for not expressing enough "gratitude" to those whom Ukraine is protecting, (i.e. Britain) has announced that he intends to resign "at the next cabinet reshuffle." WaPo
And, ‛yes’ I also think the Ukrainians should be grateful for the weapons and ammo, but, unlike him, I think they've been sufficiently expressive of that gratitude, to date anyway. And we should also remember and be grateful that they're providing the suffering and blood and the corpses, and the mangled survivors, that're currently keeping Putin from marching on to the rest of Europe, which was clearly not ready for him to start that march.
They are also suffering the scorched earth tactics that Russia uses Some of those Ukrainian villages and towns are merely rubble now.
Were that true, one would think the Ukrainian army would be running right over them by now, and then chasing the ones who ran before getting crushed.
The Russians had months to prepare. It's hard to move forward fast when you have to clear a minefield. But I think there are areas where the Ukrainians are doing some crushing.
Bridge broke. Looks fixable though. (The parallel rail bridge is said to be undamaged.)
And the grain deal has been terminated by the Russians; probably not fixable.
Bridge broke. Looks fixable though.
Yeah, that's what I'm hearing.
It sounds like Russia is massing more forces in the Kupyansk area. They seem to be trying to break through the Ukrainian lines there, or maybe trying to lure Ukrainian forces from the Bakhmut area to relieve the pressure there.
The Ukrainians (Zelenskyy in the lead) are playing up the Russian withdrawal from the grain deal. They're milkin' it for all it's worth. And doing a pretty good job of it I think, not being overly melodramatic nor going for excessive hyperbole.
(They do seem to have everybody in their government finding some way to remind the world (which is kinda risky, risks overkill) that the price of eats is gonna go up and the poor folks from the southern hemisphere, who've been Russia's big supporters, are now gonna be the big losers. This message is clearly self-serving for the Ukrainians, but it does have the advantage of being true in spite of that. Kinda blunts the disadvantage of it being so clearly self-serving.)
The Russians, on the other hand, have decided to hit hard at Odessa, the center from which the grain exports are handled.
________________________________
And… The Russians have already reopened one lane for traffic (out of four) on the Kerch Straight Bridge. (I'm hoping for Russian hubris and that the span fails under the weight of traffic in the next day or so. Not a prediction; just hoping.)
The Russians have already reopened one lane for traffic...
My guess is that they will be fixing more in the future.
Ukraine seems to be targeting areas far behind the frontline. The strikes that don't make a really large explosion are the ones that may prove the most damaging. Those are the command and control sites. They got another high ranking officer again just the other day.
"We might be seeing a tipping point
sooner."
Lynnette @ Mon Jun 19, 11:36 am
(prior thread)
I thought at the time you were being optimistic, but I decided to let that go by. But, the latest globe-wide heat wave reinforced my suspicion that you were being optimistic. And it looks like we've got another American heat wave building up in the Southwest. So, I thought I'd mention it after all.
Good chance we've already passed a tipping point and will now have to engage in remedial measures to claw our way back down. (Assuming, of course,….)
________________________________
"The Russians, on the other hand, have
decided to hit hard at Odessa, the center from
which the grain exports are handled."
Lee C. @ Tue Jul 18, 06:04 am ↑↑
And they are not letting up. Last night was the third night in a row, and they're just pouring it on.
________________________________
Wagner Group is recongregating in Belarus. Putin oughta be worried 'bout that.
I thought at the time you were being optimistic...
*sigh* Yes, I know. I just wanted to have hope yet.
But from what is going on it looks like that hope isn't bearing fruit. What I am afraid of is that people really haven't wrapped their minds around the idea that what we are seeing is not an aberration, but the new normal.
We had a small pop up storm last Thursday that dropped slightly more than a half inch of rain, plus hail. It was like someone poured a bucket of ice on my house for 5 - 10 minutes. Usually we don't get that much hail. Then last night we had another pop up storm where I got half an inch of rain with wind. I had one gust that blew one of my deck chairs across the deck, and it wasn't a lightweight chair. But this is all the rain we've had for months now. The only lawns that look good are those that have underground sprinkling. That won't be sustainable. We will need the underground water for consumption. I really need to get a rain barrel. I am going to try to find grass seed that is more drought friendly to overseed the dead spots. Although I would really like to do away with grass, but am not sure what to get that won't look bad. I really don't like the dry, dead look.
But I understand that there are other places that are facing larger challenges.
And it looks like we've got another American heat wave building up in the Southwest.
Oh, yes, that is headed our way next week. The temps have been really weird too. Very up and down. Today is in the 70's and very pleasant. It cools off at night, which is unusual for summer, but makes nice sleeping. Sometimes it actually feels like Fall.
And they are not letting up. Last night was the third night in a row, and they're just pouring it on. Speaking of Odessa.
They are trying to destroy as much as they can, while they can. Very vindictive. They should have folded their tent and went home a long time ago.
Wagner Group is recongregating in Belarus. Putin oughta be worried 'bout that.
Word from MI6 is that Putin cut a deal with Prigozhin. Doesn't mean either side will adhere to it. If I were Putin I would worry about those in the Russian military who are very pissed off. Where will all of those dismissed commanders go? Who will they hook up with?
"Speaking of Odessa."
Yeah, "speaking of Odessa"…. The Russian propaganda machine is trying hard to broadcast the story that their strikes on grain elevators and bulk loading piers around Odessa are actually strikes on secret military factories. It's not credible, but that's not the point. The point is to give Russia's supporters in Africa and Asia something to tell their own citizens. ("Alternative Facts" as Kellyanne Conway once refered to the fabrication of a wholesale lie.) I take this to mean that Putin's been getting an earful of complaints from national leaders who're themselves getting an earful of complaints about the availability and price of maize, grains, and cooking oils. Zelenskyy's own propaganda campaign must be having the desired effect. (Except insofar as Zelenskyy might have hoped it'd actually deter Putin from destroying the products and the related infrastructures; probably doing a fine job of pissing Putin off, but not enough to make him quit.)
Seems it's not safe in Russia to be too gung-ho for the Ukrainian War.
"Russian investigators have detained Igor Girkin, a former
Russian intelligence officer who is a popular nationalist
blogger, his wife, Miroslava, said. A sharp critic of Russia’s
conduct of the war in Ukraine, Mr. Girkin was accused of
extremism, she said."
NYT
Russian investigators have detained Igor Girkin, a former
Russian intelligence officer who is a popular nationalist
blogger...
I don't suppose we can hope that they will cannibalize each other?
"I don't suppose we can hope that they will cannibalize
each other?"
I think they will eventually do just that.
Putin has made the suppression of all possible domestic rebellion THE foremost policy goal of his almost twenty-five years as Russia's dictator. He's governed with an unwavering focus, first and foremost, on preventing the emergence of a rival who might potentially challenge him. (Which makes it so surprising that he let Prigozhin get away with that march to Moscow, get away with it so far anyway.)
But, I think Putin's minions, that large group of unofficial 'oligarchs' and government officials who rule mini-fiefdoms under Putin's mob-boss structure for governing Russia, the folks the Russians refer to as 'siloviki' (loosely translated as "people of power"; there is no exact translation), they will eventually (soon?) start to reach for a higher position in post-Putin Russia. And then they'll run into another silovik trying to beat them out for possession of that same power space. Too man of them, not enough power spaces. And when that time comes; it ain't gonna be pretty.
But I don't know how soon it's gonna start. (May have started already; Prigozhin may already be makin' a second run at it.)
Prigozhin may already be makin' a second run at it.
Word is that Prigozhin & Co. have set up camp in Belarus and will be training Belarussian soldiers. They are near the Polish border. So, are they a threat to Poland or are they using that as cover to become a threat to someone else? Perhaps Lukashenko is also tire of playing second fiddle?
I have been watching to see if anyone has a tally of Russian losses in that attack on the Russian base/ammo depot in Crimea. Explosions there lasted 6 hours according to CNN.
"I have been watching to see if anyone has a tally of
Russian losses in that attack on the Russian base/ammo
depot in Crimea."
I haven't seen anything.
Me either. But there does seem to be a running tally of pro-war Russian bloggers who seem to be getting eliminated. So far I have seen 4.
"…pro-war Russian bloggers…seem to be getting
eliminated."
They helped make the war more popular among the Russian population early on. But, now that they're saying the generals are idiots and/or that the war is being lost (and not exempting Putin from the command chain of idiocy), they're not quite so useful to Putin as before. Putin turning on them now may or may not be beneficial to Ukraine; that assessment can get complicated; room to argue that both ways.
One thing is fairly clear though, not at all complicated. Putin has given up on conquering Ukraine (doesn't mean he won't be happy to do it if 'the collective West' fails to keep the weapons and ammo comin'). He doesn't think conquest is a likely outcome for him here. IF he manages to overrun the country after a failure by NATO, the Ukrainians will just drop back into guerrilla war and do to him what the Afghans did to Brezhnev and the North Vietnamese and later the Iraqi did to us, they'll keep nickin' the Russian occupation 'til they bleed 'em out.
So, now he's committed instead to destroying Ukraine, salting the Earth as far as his forces can reach. This will be his vengeance, vengeance as a substitute for victory, and just maybe he can scare the Europeans in NATO back into the cowering crouch, ears covered and eyes closed, that was their preferred position during most of the Cold War. That's what he's thinkin' anyway. I don't think it's gonna work this time (maybe though, and that's enough of a chance for him to give it a shot).
Vengeance as a substitute for victory though, that's his prize now. And be damned if I don't think the Russian civilian population will go along with him on that. (Whether or not the generals and the 'siloviki' will go along is another matter. I got no light that penetrates that gloom, so I'd just be guessin'.)
________________________________
And Odesa got pounded for the fifth night in a row.
I ended up taking a nap last night before going to bed, so didn't check the Ukraine news. But this morning, this was on CNN:
Ukraine has wedged itself in Russia's first line of defense, Russian official claims, amid reports of major offensive in Zaporizhzhia region
From CNN’s Vasco Cotovio and Olga Voitovych
Ukrainian forces have been able to wedge themselves in Russia’s first line of defense, with heavy and fierce fighting still ongoing amid a large offensive along the southern front in the Zaporizhzhia region, a Russian official has claimed.
“At least 100 armored vehicles have been used to attack by the enemy on the Orekhov [Russian spelling of Orikhiv] section of the Zaporizhzhya (Russian spelling of Zaporizhzhia) front,” a member of the Russian-installed Zaporizhzhia military-civilian administration, Vladimir Rogov, wrote on Telegram on Wednesday.
“At the moment, as a result of several waves of attack near Rabotino [Russian spelling of Robotyne] with more than 100 units of armored vehicles, including tanks, BMPs, APCs and AFVs, the enemy managed to wedge in three sections of our first line of defense.”
Rogov went on to say Russian forces were using their full arsenal, including aviation strikes, to push back against the Ukrainian units carrying out the assault, which he claimed were Western equipped and trained.
“The fighters of these brigades have been trained abroad, and the brigades themselves are equipped with Western military equipment, including Leopard tanks and Bradley BMPs,” he wrote. “Now there are heavy, fierce battles of high intensity going on in this area.”
Well-connected Russian military blogger Rybar says fighting in the area has slightly decreased in intensity, adding Russian forces have been able able to hold their ground.
Some context: Russian-installed officials and military bloggers have claimed Ukrainian forces have launched a major offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region, to the south of Orikhiv, as they appear to build on modest gains in the area over the past couple of days.
Ukrainian officials and sources have yet to comment on this alleged offensive.
There's never a good link for the little tidbits on their newsfeed, so I end up posting it all.
Multiple missile attacks, including Kinzhals, in western Ukraine.
"…a large offensive along the southern front in the
Zaporizhzhia region…"
…as told by assorted Russian government sources and especially Russian military bloggers.
I looked around for confirmation on other 'mainstream' media, and find very little to match CNN's breathless coverage (they have noted the Biden administration's comments on the matter). And I wonder if this excited reporting is mostly a consequence of "pro-war Russian bloggers…getting eliminated." So, now we've got the surviving bloggers toeing the party line here; they're being of service to the state again, and preparing their readers for the expected future collapse of the Russian lines (to lessen the blow to Putin's image).
For everybody else this story seems to merely be a continuation of the slow, grinding advance the Ukrainians have been pounding out on the ground for a couple of months now.
But, I do take the new urgency from the Russian propagandists to be a hint that their lines are getting shaky now, shaky enough for them to see the breakthrough comin'. And I take that to be good news, even if the Russian population is being psychologically prepared to accept it without flinching.
There have been advances by Ukraine according to some Ukrainian vloggers as well. It would seem that Ukraine has found some weak spots in the Russian lines.
"There have been advances by Ukraine according to some
Ukrainian vloggers as well."
There have been advances by the Ukrainians for a couple of months now. They've been slow, methodical, almost plodding advances, and hard fought, but steady; definitely steady advances by the Ukrainians. That's not new. And I didn't mean to suggest that what's been happenin' right along wasn't still happenin' now.
And there are definite hints that the breakthrough may be comin' closer, but it ain't happened yet.
Also, we should keep in mind that those Biden administration announcements I mentioned earlier say this is gonna be the much anticipated Spring Counter-Offensive finally comin’ up.
________________________________
"African Union Chairman Azali Assoumani called on Russia to
allow the export of both Ukrainian and Russian grain at the
opening session of the Russia-Africa summit on Thursday,
amid fears that the blockade will lead to a spike in food prices
that would worsen a food security emergency in the Horn of
Africa.
***
"Assoumani spoke directly after Russian President Vladimir
Putin, who is using the summit as a way to try to cut Ukrainian
grain out of African markets…."
WaPo
The Russians are making noises about wanting to 'negotiate'. Failing to get negotiations, they want to arrange for a cease-fire (or maybe they want to negotiate for a cease-fire, but I don't think that's it).
I think we can take this new pretense at peacefulness to be a clear indication that it's not just the Russian military bloggers who fear an impending breakthrough by the Ukrainians. Putin's begun to fear the same thing.
Ain't just the Russian front lines gettin' shaky these days.
________________________________
A Ukrainian guy I've never heard of (who works for the Atlantic Council and not for the Ukrainian government) has come up with an idea (published inWaPo) that I find intriguing. He's too shy to actually name the notion (an affliction that doesn't hold any sway over me). But he's actually saying that NATO needs to create its own 'Black Sea Fleet' to take control of that inland waterway away from the Russians. I tend to agree. And I'll say it out loud.
First things first though. There's still a ground war for Ukraine to win, and we gotta help 'em with that first.
Ain't just the Russian front lines gettin' shaky these days.
No, the rest of the house of cards is starting to tremble too.
But he's actually saying that NATO needs to create its own 'Black Sea Fleet' to take control of that inland waterway away from the Russians.
I wonder how Turkey would like that. I kind of get the impression that Turkey feels it is their puddle just as much as Russia's. Would they share with their fellow NATO members?
I was listening to a Russian vlogger the other day. He was talking about the Russian street interviews you can find on YouTube. Apparently there have been ramifications for those giving too candid views against the war...er special military operation. One guy that was arrested is facing years in prison. But the vlogger went on to say that polls taken in Russia are questionable for a similar reason. People in Russia are less than enthusiastic to answer poll questions and will dodge taking a poll, because they don't want to be identified as opposing Putin's war on Ukraine. The number of people actually willing to take a poll in Russia has dropped. So when we see poll results we need to understand that they may be representative of a very small portion of the Russian population.
Putin has increased the fines for those who do not comply with their draft notices.
One Russian vlogger says they have fixed the glitches that saw those older than draft age getting notices. This and comments by one Russian official urging a general mobilization make him believe there will be more mobilizations in the future. He also believes that people will be okay with it.
I suppose once they have run out of their current cannon fodder they will need to replenish the ranks.
"Putin has increased the fines…"
More than just that. He's put in place an automatic revocation of their exit visas. They can't leave Russia once they're put on the list of potential draftees, even if they haven't received their draft notice yet.
"I suppose once they have run out of their current cannon
fodder they will need to replenish the ranks."
Possible they'll run out of Putin first and won't need more cannon fodder. (That's assuming a military coup; they get a civilian coup instead they're quite likely to get someone even more disengaged from military realities than Putin. That would be bad, and would probably also mean they'll still need to replenish their stock of cannon fodder.)
However that turns out, I'm quite dubious 'bout the notion that Russian civil society will take to a new mobilization without complaints and serious pushback. I think your source is being overly optimistic on that score. (But, can't say for sure 'til Putin, or whomever, calls for another involuntary mobilization; then we'll know, and not 'til then.)
I think your source is being overly optimistic on that score.
I'm not sure what he is. He is outside of Russia and does not support the war, but he tends to soft pedal some things. It may just be his personality. Or maybe he has relatives back in Russia he doesn't want to get in trouble. Not sure.
They can't leave Russia once they're put on the list of potential draftees, even if they haven't received their draft notice yet.
Yes, he did mention that too. Perhaps he was trying to warn someone. A general mobilization in Russia would not be good.
I spoke to someone from Ukraine the other day. They really believe that all of the people in Russia support Putin's war. Or at the least will do nothing to oppose it. So, like lemmings, will they follow Putin off a cliff?
Donald Trump has been indicted on 3 conspiracy charges and 1 obstruction with regard attempting to overturn the 2020 election.
And, yet, people are still willing to vote for this man in 2024.
"So, like lemmings, will they follow Putin off a cliff?"
Yeah, pretty much. The ones who support the war will eventually blame Putin for losing it. But that comes later.
The ones who don't support the war are just keepin' their heads down (for the most part; there's been a few notable exceptions raised objections and got thrown in jail for long stretches).
________________________________
"And, yet, people are still willing to vote for this man in 2024."
Lemmings.
________________________________
And the attacks on Ukraine's grain shipments continue unabated. Russia's supporters in the third world are somewhat pissed, but not pissed enough to fail to continue in their support.
And it appears that the Russians have not learned from the past and are still assembling troops in formation and driving in long convoys. They assumed the Ukrainians could not reach far behind the front lines and thought they were safe. Very wrong. They just lost around 200 soldiers, including the idiots who ordered the assemblage, that were stationed on an island behind the Kherson district. Poof! Up in smoke.
They also lost another convoy of vehicles and soldiers. Totally forgot about that convoy that never quite made it to Kyiv.
More fires at Russian enlistment offices. Maybe that Russian vlogger was wrong, people in Russia will not be thrilled to serve in the military if called.
The Ukrainians have put the hurt on another Russian warship (with a pair of sea drones), but they did not sink it outright. It was filmed being towed back into port "listing heavily".
The ship's been identified as the Olenegorsky Gornyak, and is supposedly a big navy ship (although I've not seen any designation yet of the type of ship it is/was).
I saw that video of the ship. Even i could see the list. It was a big ship with about 100 sailers on board. Even if it wasn't sunk outright it will be out of the fight for a while.
Score another ship for the Ukrainian seaborne drones. This time a Russian oil tanker. Russia says it was empty, but Ukraine says it was loaded with fuel for the Russian military.
Word is that Russian officers should be careful of what they eat. It seems that 20 of them were poisoned recently, with 17 being hospitalized and 2 dying.
"Score another ship…"
More than just that, the Ukrainians have made a public announcement that Russian ports on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov are considered military assets for the invaders and are now subject to attack without further warning (now that they've got weapons with which to attack them). All ships should consider those ports to be "high risk" destinations.
(The Russians ship a lot of their oil out of those ports.)
Those Ukrainians are clever people. They really do belong IN NATO.
The New York Times calls it Putin's Forever War. It's a fairly long piece and you'll need to turn off the javascripting to get to it. But, I found it interesting enough to forward the link in spite of all that.
I'll have to check it out when I have some free time. But it does sound like Putin isn't going to back off. There is speculation that he is hoping for a Trump presidency 2.0. Wonder what would happen if that bet turns out to be wrong?
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