Sleight of hand, a shell game, a lie. They are all one and the same and we are seeing them acted out in Ukraine and in our own country. Let's start with Ukraine.
On July 29 there was an explosion and fire at Olenivka detention center in Ukraine, killing 50 detained Ukrainian soldiers. These soldiers were some of those who had surrendered at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol. According to Russia the explosion was caused by Ukraine using HIMARS. Ukraine says, no, it wasn't a strike by them, it was Russia.
Here is a nice in depth article from CNN on who may really have killed the Ukrainian POW's. The evidence seems to point to an internal explosion, not the result of any outside missile strike.
What really happened at Olenivka?
If the Russians ordered these men killed to cover up abuses or to intentionally eliminate hated prisoners they have committed a war crime, one among many. And they are lying.
Now we come to my country, the United States. We are still mired in the lies and massive con that our former Dear Leader Donald Trump foisted on us with his attempt to steal the presidential election. Yes, you heard that here, it was not the Democrats but the Republican supporters of Donald Trump who tried some sleight of hand to overthrow a legitimate election. And when that didn't work they tried violence in the guise of the January 6th insurrection. But if you have been paying attention you already know this.
Now we have an FBI raid of Donald Trump's Florida residence in search of documents the former president removed from the White House illegally. None of those documents should have been removed and some may have national security implications. One has to question why Trump took them in the first place. Yet we have many Republicans who are frothing at the mouth in support of Trump.
I in no way think that the Republican party has stooped to the level of barbarity of the Russian government. I like to believe there are still some in that party who do have integrity. However, the lying to cover up illegal actions is exactly the same. The lying to promote themselves is exactly the same. The lying that impacts our futures is the same.
Listen up and start acting like adults, because this matters. Why did Trump have those kinds of documents at Mar-A-Lago?
105 comments:
Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine: Local civilians, townspeople, villagers, family of workers at the plant, etc. are fleeing the area at a greatly increased rate this past week. It may be nothing more than a reaction to the increased shelling out of (and back at) the plant. Or maybe they know something the the American war correspondents don't yet know.
I don't blame them. If I were there I would be doing the same thing!
It sounds like the EU is discussing a blanket ban on Russians traveling to the EU from Russia. They are rather ticked off that Russians are traveling like nothing is happening in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, back at the palace, Putin is letting the world know that he is quite ready to expand the war by supplying any and all comers with military technology.
More explosions in Crimea this morning. Another ammo depot burning.
They have targeted the railroads as well.
There are signs that Russian military commanders, and their families, are relocating from the Kherson area.
Georgia's investigation with regard to attempts to tamper with the 2020 election seems to have swept up Giuliani as well.
DOJ is stating they do not agree with making public the affidavit that was filed to support the search of Mar-A-Lago. Considering the threats that have been posted against law enforcement that would seem to be wise. I can imagine witnesses prefer to remain out of the public eye. Especially if they are close to Trump.
Putin has signed contracts of around $8 billion in military spending for new missiles and other equipment. And so it starts...who can outspend the other? Reminds me of Afghanistan in the 80's. It would still be cheaper for Russia to ditch Putin, I'm thinking.
"Reminds me of Afghanistan in the 80's."
Military spending on Afghanistan in the 80s is what broke (financially) the Soviet Union.
(It was not Reagan's deficit defense spending on 'Star Wars' and the like, as Reagan's followers are too often taught.)
I still have a hard time making heads or tails out of what’s going on in Ukraine. Watched a YouTube video on a former US colonel yesterday who claims Russia is on the verge of victory. That doesn’t seem believable in the least to me.
Link:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u9pEotvlW-s
On the other hand I visit some blogs that daily report 200 plus dead Russians and multiple tanks and armored vehicles taken out, and if that were true every single day the Russians would be beat by now.
From what I can gather it’s clear that Putin and the others in his midst clearly underestimated the Ukraines willingness and ability to fight back. I also believe that when their initial shock attack failed they were pretty much doomed. Now that the west has had the time to establish supply routes for weaponry and aid to the Ukraine it’s too late for Russia to “win”.
That said I think it will also be almost impossible for Ukraine to beat back Russia and win a military victory. I saw Lee speculate in the thread before this one about a possible “Korea scenario” where basically war fatigue brings on a no peace situation but with limited or none actual combat. Sounds likely to me.
But as said before I am really struggling to get a clear picture of what is going on. All I know is that this is a shitty effing situation that NOONE benefits from (except for maybe arms manufacturers and mercenaries). The Ukraine is being literally destroyed, Russia is going to suffer immensely, Russians are viewed as persona non grata, Europe faces an even worse energy crises than that which was already in the makings, and the 3d world loses out on very much needed foodstuffs from some of the worlds remaining bread baskets. It’s just all fucked up and depresses me.
"On the other hand I visit some blogs that daily report 200
plus dead Russians…"
Those reports were fairly time-specific even when the Ukrainian government first made the claims. Hadn't been going on very long--didn't keep going on much longer--the Russians quit trying to press forward in the Donbas due to the heavy losses there (locus of the fight seems to have shifted south since then).
Some Russia shills will claim that Putin is brilliant, the Ruble is stronger and they are raking in more money from energy exports than they ever did before, due to the higher prices. So even if they are boycotted by the west and have to sell energy at a discount to China and India them discount prices are higher than the pre war market prices.
That is all bullshit reasoning even though it may be technically true for now. Thousands upon thousand of western companies have left Russia and the will NOT come back. At least not until that country is utterly reformed and even then they are going to be cautious. And the import bans are going to start hit real hard real soon. Depleting Russian industry of all components needed from th west.
It will be left as an energy only economy with customers that can dictate the terms. Like a banana republic only w oil and gas instead of actual bananas. They face a bleak future.
Lee
“ Those reports were fairly time-specific even when the Ukrainian government first made the claims”
Ok but I read some sources that report those figures daily and have been for months. I’m sure it does happen on occasion but doubt it’s a daily occurrence. Is al I’m saying.
"…and they are raking in more money from energy exports than they ever
did before, due to the higher prices."
That part has been true up 'til now. But, Putin's had active coöperation and assistance from western energy companies who've also benefited financially from keeping up the 'panic pricing' of crude oil. However, such market manipulations generally only last a limited length of time and the customers' panic eventually wears off, no matter how much the oil companies try to keep it going. I think we've already hit that stage. Oil prices are dropping and there's not much the oil companies can do about it, or they'd already be doing it. Even coöperation with Putin's Russia can't keep the panic up forever.
"Ok but I read some sources that report those figures daily
and have been for months."
I would doubt the credibility of those sources.
Lee
“ I would doubt the credibility of those sources”
I am doing just that. My point was that I find it hard to find credible sources what with all these completely different reports I’m fed. I try to just take it all in, filter out the most unbelievable ones, check what the sources are and if they might have an agenda to push and then come to some sort of “conclusion”. But that conclusion is very hard to get to for me in this situation. That was my initial point, I find it really hard to get a grip on wtf is actually going on there.
Lee,
“ That part has been true up 'til now. But, Putin's had active coöperation and assistance from western energy companies who've also benefited financially from keeping up the 'panic pricing' of crude oil. ”
You may well be correct. I think however that Gas is a much more potent energy weapon than crude oil. It’s much harder to ship around the globe and it’s reserves are even more concentrated in few countries. Russia and Iran being the biggest players and neither is very palatable.
It’s much different for the US that is, or can be, energy independent on both oil and gas. There it’s about political and market decisions. In Germany that has almost no domestic gas or oil it’s a different ballgame. And Germany is by far the EUs biggest economy and I believe, wo bothering to fact check, the worlds fourth biggest economy. Starve that economy of energy and everyone will feel the damage. Even you.
It's my opinion that the Ukrainians currently hold the initiative; they are currently 'winning' the war (slowly). But that's now, and that's also the result of massive matériel support from 'the West'. Could change on a moment's notice, especially if 'the West' gets bored with the contest.
"I think however that Gas is a much more potent energy weapon than crude oil."
Europe intentionally and knowingly made themselves dependent on Russian gas. The risks were always clear. It was gonna come home to bite 'em sometime. But they could not be dissuaded. So, now's the time it bites 'em.
Ukraine’s General Staff of the Armed Forces reported that
44,100 Russian personnel were killed, as well as 1,886 tanks
and 233 aircraft destroyed since the start of the war. In a
social media post reporting the numbers, the army said Russia
has suffered the greatest losses in the last day in Kharkiv and
Donetsk."
WashingtonPost
By those numbers, the Russians have lost an average of 252 soldiers/sailors/etc per day since Putin opened the war in late February. (Of course, I don't accept those numbers; more dependable I think, British and American estimates--as of 24 July '22--both were ~150,000 Russian dead which would work out to 99 Russian dead per day on average since the start of the war.
typo: 15,000, not 150,000.
Military spending on Afghanistan in the 80s is what broke (financially) the Soviet Union.
Yup.
[Marcus] I still have a hard time making heads or tails out of what’s going on in Ukraine.
Not really surprising. There is a lot of information swirling around out there, not all of it accurate. And even those who are accurate only see a part of what is going on.
On the other hand I visit some blogs that daily report 200 plus dead Russians and multiple tanks and armored vehicles taken out, and if that were true every single day the Russians would be beat by now.
I suspect that the Russians can lose a lot of men, but still move forward. Because they have been systematically depopulating the territory in the East and South by their constant bombardment of the cities and villages. As you said, turning Ukraine into rubble.
Theirs is a war of complete destruction. But it comes at a great cost to them. Slowly, but surely, Ukraine has been chipping away at their foundation.
Ukraine targeted Wagner the other day. It remains to be seen what the casualties were, but it may have been the greatest loss for that group since our forces killed so many of them in Syria.
typo: 15,000, not 150,000.
US is saying between 70,000 and 80,000 Russian casualties, including dead and wounded. While the number of dead may be around your number, the number of wounded do matter. Because they are pawns taken off of Russia's chessboard.
"While the number of dead may be around your number…"
My number was as of three weeks ago. I was unable to find a current estimate from the Brits or the CIA that broke out the dead from the overall 'casualties'.
It has occurred to me that the military offensive Putin announced months ago for the southern sea shore of Ukraine has commenced whilst I wasn't paying close enough attention to see it. Thing is the party on the offensive is Ukraine--not Russia.
Two strikes into Crimea within a week. More to come.
Word is that members of the government installed by Russia in Crimea have been evacuated to Russia. I don't have any verification of that.
Yes, I think Ukraine has been "shaping the battlefield" for some time now.
Finland is limiting visas for Russians.
Finland would cut daily visa application appointments in Russia from 1,000 to 500 per day, with just 100 allocated to tourists, the ministry said.
Germany is a little hesitant to initiate a blanket ban for visas to the EU for Russians because they feel there should be some means of escape for Russian dissidents. They do have a point there I think. I believe there may still be some Russians who would prefer to leave that country. Not all want to go back to the USSR.
Speaking of totalitarian governments, it appears that DeSantis is continuing with his war on "the woke mob". Scary thought that he could become president. In some ways he is worse than Trump.
"In some ways he is worse than Trump."
No shit. He's also the favorite over Trump by professional Republican politicians and donors, but trails Trump by quite a bit among the voting 'base'.
Explosion and fire in ammo depot in Russia--about nine miles over the line into Russia. Newsweek
And...
Explosions and fire at an airfield at Belbek in Crimea.
Russia says they shot down a Ukrainian drone. Hmmm...that looks like more than a drone.
Word is Erdogan brought Zelensky a Russian offer to talk about a peace deal. I suspect it isn't going to happen. The price will be too high for Ukraine.
The price'll be too high for Putin. Zelenskyy wants Crimea back. Now he thinks the Ukrainians can eventually take it back. Putin ain't never gonna agree to that.
It occurs to me that if there is a nuclear accident at Zaporizhzhia power plant the fallout will more likely float to the east rather than to the west as the prevailing winds usually move from west to east. This would put it over the occupied territories and Russia. So one would think it in Russia's interest to maintain the security of the nuclear plant.
I suspect Russia's real goal is to continue to use the plant as cover to attack Ukraine and possibly attempt to steal the power for their own use.
Zelenskyy wants Crimea back.
Yes, and I can't blame him.
It appears that the attack on Saky airbase in Crimea did some real damage to the Russian Black Sea Fleet's air capability.
The latest announced shipment of arms to Ukraine from the U.S. will include 40 'mine-sweeping' vehicles (armored vehicles pushing big rollers designed to detonate mines in open terrain--clearing a path for troops and equipment to follow--basic design's been in use since "D-Day" in WWII), plus 50 up-armored HumVees designed for troop transport, 1,500 TOW missiles and another 1,000 Javelins (maybe some more Stingers as well). Plus some semi-exotic offensive weapons like high-speed anti-radar missiles to go after Russia's 'return fire' capabilities.
These are offensive weapons to support a Ukrainian counter-attack yet to come.
Plus we're sending more of the usual stuff, artillery shells, rockets for the HIMARS systems, etc.
Russia has replaced the commander of the Black Sea Fleet. Seems Moscow hasn't been impressed with the performance there.
Russia claims to have "shot down" a Ukrainian 'kamikaze' drone on Saturday which then crashed into the intended target (the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters building) and set it on fire. (I'm not sure it counts as a shoot-down when the drone gets through to the target, but the new commander needs to get off on a high note, so….)
These are offensive weapons to support a Ukrainian counter-attack yet to come.
The Russians have been nibbling away at Ukrainian territory for some time now. A little payback would be a good thing.
Lynnette
” I suspect Russia's real goal is to continue to use the plant as cover to attack Ukraine and possibly attempt to steal the power for their own use.”
What the bastards will probably do is cut it off the grid or shut it down, falsely blaming it on the Ukraine. That would be one more nail in the European coffer when it comes to energy scarcity this coming winter.
I don’t know it y’all know this but already now in summer electricity bills are through the roof here. This coming winter could be disasterous. We’re talking folks, in the middle classes, not being able to afford heating and entire industries being forced to close. It’ll be bad. Possibly real bad.
"What the bastards will probably do is cut it off
the grid…"
They appear to be eager enough to take it off the grid. But they're reliant upon Ukrainian technical workers to actually run the plant and it's not clear those workers are willing to help with that.
Whether they'll be able to reroute the power to Crimea and Russia (apparently Putin's favorite option) is less clear. It's possible that problems with rerouting the power to where the Russians want it is a significant part of what's kept them from taking the plant off-grid so far. When they get that destination problem worked out they may lean hard on the Ukrainian workers to make the switch.
And we in the States are looking at fairly high summer energy bills as well. Domestic natural gas prices have more than doubled since the first of the year, looking to go higher as the heating season approaches. Not as severe as the hit to Europe, but I sure as hell noticed it already.
To steal the energy might be in the plans, but that’d be a bonus. The main aim is to deprive Europe of energy. And if this major plant is cut off the EU will need to either export energy to the Ukraine or see them freeze, with all the more refugees to handle. Just this day Russia announces a 3 days “maintenance” closure of Nord Stream 1. That might not seem so much but it’s 3 days when Germany will not be able to stockpile gas for the winter season but will be burning supplies instead. And North Stream has been running only at about 20 to 30 percent recently so supplies are low.
This is the result of decades of politics in Europe at large but primarily Germany putting our entire economies and even livelihoods at the mercy of Russian energy imports. The so called “green” parties have spearheaded this development and should bear the brunt of the blame but really all political parties are to blame. Merkel for instance, a CDU Prime minister, shut virtually all German nuclear power down as a knee jerk reaction to the Fukushima disaster. Just about jumping into Putins lap.
The then German chancellor Gerhard Shröder was the original architect of the “eastern friendship” policy set that was, probably, possibly in good faith but very naive, set on creating an east-west partnership acronym the whole of Eurasia. What does Gerhard do now? Well, he’s on the Gasprom board of directors….
That being said Europe will struggle for a while and it might be some seriously hard times to come, but maybe we’re just due that actually. We’ll get past it and probably come out stronger after 5 to 10 harsh years.
Russia on the other hand is FUCKED. It doesn’t even really matters long term how things go in Ukraine, Russia is fucked. They lost thousands of western businesses, that were the best workplaces they had, and those are not coming back. I remember back when I myself worked for IKEA and I was in contact w our Russian colleagues. They were super educated, spoke perfect English and were really dedicated to the company, bc it was an employer that was far better than local Russian ones.
All of that is gone now. No IKEA, no McDonalds, no IT jobs. Tens, probably hundreds, of thousands of the best and best paid jobs are gone. And gone for a long time. Maybe forever.
So yeah, they can brag on RT about the money they make from the higher energy prices. In the long term they are FUCKED. And they know it, at least the people do, at least the educated ones.
So all in all, what we need now is staying power. Europe must stand by and support the Ukraine until they are able to beat back Russia and come to a settlement on terms agreeable to by Ukraine.
This will most likely mean Europe will have to face a depression brought on by Russia using the energy weapon to try to blackmail us into abandoning Ukraine. To do so would be folly and immoral, so I hope Europe will stay the course.
What help we need from America is basically energy for Western Europe, as much LNG as you can produce and ship. And weapons to the Ukranians. You’ve already done more on the latter than anyone else but it needs to keep flowing.
A car bomb outside Moscow killed Alexander Dugin's daughter.
Russian authorities said Sunday they had opened a murder investigation after the daughter of influential, ultra-nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin was killed by a car bomb on the outskirts of Moscow.
The Russian Investigative Committee said it believed someone planned and ordered the car explosion that killed Darya Dugina, based on evidence already collected from the blast. "Taking into account the data already obtained, the investigation believes that the crime was pre-planned and was of an ordered nature," the investigative committee said in a statement Sunday.
Of course, Russia blames Ukraine. Ukraine denies having any involvement. Either way I think Russia has a serious internal problem.
Marcus/Lee,
You may find Schnitzel Republic's blog interesting if you haven't already been reading him. He is an American married to a German woman and living in Germany. He posts snippets of information on the German scene.
Russians are becoming aware of Putin's desire to import North Korean workers. Apparently Russian workers are not as quick and efficient as the North Koreans. Never mind that unemployment is rising in Russia. Perhaps it is not workers they desire but potential soldiers?
What help we need from America is basically energy for Western Europe, as much LNG as you can produce and ship. And weapons to the Ukranians.
I suspect both are in the works.
I'm seeing reports that that war narrative is changing in the Russian media. It's less about saving Ukraine from the 'Nazis' and increasingly being sold as the defense of Russia against 'The West' (the United States in particular, and its NATO lackeys) and against an insidious western plan to dominate and suppress Russia (impose gay marriage, the Geneva Conventions, etc. on Russia). The 'Nazi' label is still thrown about with enthusiasm only slightly dimmed, but increasingly this is now being sold as a war to defend Russia and 'Russian Values' and Russian sovereignty against the encroachment of and domination by 'The West'. (Such a change in rationale will tend to support a longer, grinding war of attrition.)
(Such a change in rationale will tend to support a longer, grinding war of attrition.)
And general mobilization.
Seems Russia has dug up...er found, the perpetrator of the car bombing of Alexandor Dugin's daughter. It was a Ukrainian woman who had been living in the same building as Dugina. She managed to escape with her 12 yr daughter to Estonia right after the blast. So efficient, and not to say convenient, of the Russian authorities to solve the case so quickly.
Of course, there are some nasty minded people who are suggesting that this was an internal Russian matter which allows them to blame Ukraine.
Perhaps, again, laying the ground for a general mobilization of the Russian population.
One has to wonder why the last minute change in who drove Dugin's car at the end of the festival. Perhaps Dugin was not expendable, unlike his daughter.
There was a (previously unknown) Russian anti-Putin (hence anti-war) group who are said to have claimed responsibility. Name of "National Republican Army". Supposedly Alexandor Dugin was the intended target. Guardian
Aaaahhhh dang, I was just coming here to link to a story about the NRA. First I've heard of them.
Are they real? Don't know, but that hit seemed pretty well planned and executed. And whoever did it had to have access to explosives within Russia.
I tend to believe Ukraine when they said Dugin or his daughter were not on their target list. I can see where they would reserve their efforts, weaponry and ammo for military targets. The kind that attack them. Soft targets like the Dugins wouldn't fit that description no matter how much influence the father has with Putin.
And for Putin to order the hit as a false flag type of thing seems a stretch too. Although I still would like to know why Dugin changed his plans.
Also, there have been a number of fires at Russian recruiting stations. Who set those?
The plot thickens.
Hmmm...I'm rethinking the possibility that it was Putin behind that hit on Dugina. It seems the Russian government is using that as a catalyst to gin up anger in Russia against Ukraine. Still wondering why Dugin didn't get in that car.
"It seems the Russian government is using that as a catalyst to
gin up anger in Russia against Ukraine."
Putin quickly saw the advantage of blaming it on Ukraine in order to gin up anger in Russia. He wasn't gonna miss that opportunity; no matter who did it or why. Once it had happened he was gonna blame it on Ukraine. He might know better; he might not; he'd still blame it on Ukraine.
________________________________
This is the Ukrainian Independence Day. They were/are expecting a high level of incoming explosives anyway, although Putin might decide to blame it on the assassination of Dugina. (No way they put a bunch of missiles through their balky supply chain on such short notice.)
________________________________
Zelenskyy promised, at a press conference held mostly for Ukrainian press, although open to foreign press as well, that Ukraine would retake Crimea as a necessary condition to ending the war with Russia. Quoting:
"We will be returning [to] Crimea by any means, because
this is our territory. We will decide on our own, without
consulting with any other country in the world."
Ukrinform.net
This is what he's telling his own people.
This is what he's telling his own people.
Typical politician. He knows he can't do it without help from the West.
Interesting, though, that Erdogan basically said the same thing. That is under international law Crimea is Ukrainian.
But for the West I think it isn't just about regaining lost territory for Ukraine, it is about stopping Putin. Because Putin will not stop on his own.
Looks like the anticipated artillery and missile attacks against Ukraine have not materialized on their Independence Day. Putin is still hard to predict.
You spoke too soon. There was an attack on a train station, which killed a number of people. Russia is claiming 200 soldiers were killed.
There was also an attack on a Ukrainian airbase. No word on damage or casualties there.
Putin has signed a decree raising the number of military personnel to slightly over a million from slightly under a million. No word on where he will dig them up.
It's hard to keep track of what is happening with the plant at Zaporizhzhia. I had heard it was back on line. Then I heard the Russians were trying to use it for power in Crimea and Russia. Someone else said it would be difficult to transfer power. For now I will be happay if it doesn't meld down.
There was nothing significant about this attack on a civilian train except that the Russians got lucky and killed a bunch of civilians instead of the usual couple or more.
Yes, it could have been worse. At least as far as the big picture goes. Obviously it was worse for those killed and their families.
I did hear that Russia managed to bomb a Ukrainian ammo deport. But I also heard that Ukraine got another command post, killing multiple Russian soldiers.
It has occurred to me that Putin's additional 137,000 troops to be added next year may be vague about who's gonna make that happen (and especially how they're gonna make it happen) on account of it ain't really gonna happen. Maybe the announcement was just a feint.
May be that Putin just made proclamation to signal to the Ukrainians that he's figuring on a long war, because Biden's last ($3 Billion) announcement of weaponry included items Biden had included specifically to signal to Putin that we're gonna be backing the Ukrainians long haul. So, Putin's signaling back, but it's just a feint; the soldier increase ain't actually gonna happen.
Wouldn't put it past him. Wouldn't bet on it either.
and especially how they're gonna make it happen...
Considering that the majority of young Russian men 17 -27 do not want to join the military, at least those in the cities, it may be a tough ask. As for those in the hinterlands, they are seeing people not coming back.
Unfortunately Putin's propaganda is so well entrenched that many in the country blame the West, in particular the US. They are as delusional as those who believe Trump won the last election.
It sounds like Ukraine has started its counteroffensive in the south.
"It sounds like Ukraine has started its counteroffensive in the south."
Shouldn't havta be told when Ukraine starts its counteroffensive in the south; should be obvious. (The Russians made several announcements of a "southern offensive" that never materialized.)
Although, it does seem that the Ukrainians have begun an obviously modest push around Kherson. Still it might be a bit much to describe that stepped up activity as the long hinted at 'counteroffensive'.
Maybe they're just ramping up gradually.
Maybe they're just ramping up gradually.
I think they are. They may not have all of the weapons needed for a major push. I suspect they are carefully picking their targets. They are smart.
The Russians claim to have repelled a multi-pronged Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' around Kherson (unlikely), so I guess everybody's in agreement that the current uptick in Ukrainian military activity qualifies as the 'counteroffensive' that's been so long hinted at. (Everybody except the Pentagon which is still avoiding that terminology for reasons best known to the Pentagon I reckon.)
Video posted on social media show smoke and gunfire inside the city of Kherson, bodies and disabled military vehicles littering the streets. A partisan uprising at a minimum; perhaps Ukrainian special forces operating inside Kherson already.
I'll wish them good luck. (They can't afford to botch this--Germany's already lookin' for a reason to make nice with Putin again, and France has a fairly large pro-Putin political movement, and….)
Video posted on social media show smoke and gunfire inside the city of Kherson, bodies and disabled military vehicles littering the streets.
I didn't expect that so soon. I guess we'll see.
The Russians claim to have repelled a multi-pronged Ukrainian 'counteroffensive'...
They would no matter what the truth is. Zelensky has given the Russians the option of surrender or retreat. I don't know if he specified the same for the collaborators. Word is though that they (the collaborators) retreated from the first line of defense. Probably a wise move there.
The Ukrainians have worked hard to set the trap. I wish them the best.
From CNN:
Ukraine's defense ministry asks Crimea residents to provide details of bases and movements of Russian forces
From CNN's Julia Kesaieva
Ukraine's defense ministry has appealed to informants in Crimea to relay details of the movements of Russian forces.
The Defense Intelligence Unit said on its Telegram channel that it wanted residents of Crimea to provide "the exact location of the deployment points and residential addresses of the occupying forces (preferred geo-referencing with coordinates)" as well as details of where senior officers lived.
It also asked people to provide the "locations and routes of movement of military equipment" and "accurate data of local collaborators who switched to the side of the enemy."
Ukraine has not acknowledged any attacks on Russian military locations and equipment in Crimea.
I suppose, theoretically, the Ukrainians could push right through Kherson and on in Crimea...
It also sounds like Russia has received the drones from Iran that were mentioned earlier. The US assessment is that they intend to use them on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Btw, speaking of drones, did you happen to see the Iranian naval ship dragging off one of our sea going drones? A US ship shadowed them until they decided to drop it. Really?! Some people have a lot of nerve.
The US war gamed with Ukraine for the counteroffensive.
In the buildup to the current Ukrainian counteroffensive, the US urged Kyiv to keep the operation limited in both its objectives and its geography to avoid getting overextended and bogged down on multiple fronts, multiple US and western officials and Ukrainian sources tell CNN.
Those discussions involved engaging in "war-gaming" with Kyiv, the sources said -- analytical exercises that were intended to help the Ukrainian forces understand what force levels they would need to muster to be successful in different scenarios.
It appears that while Ukraine may not be at parity with Russia, it is at least standing on a little more equal footing according to recent assessments.
"Russia has received the drones from Iran…"
Word is the Russians are seriously dissatisfied with the quality and performance of those Iranian drones. (Haven't heard specifically what the deficiencies are supposed to be.) But, they can't make drones themselves, so….
More striking to me than quibbles over the quality of the Iranian war matériel is the very idea that Russia, once one of the premier producers of weapons of war is now looking for its advanced weaponry among such questionable sources as Iran and North Korea.
The Russian Defense Ministry is claiming that the Ukrainian offensive against Kherson has been a massive failure with heavy losses to the Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians, not surprisingly, are saying that the operation is proceeding "as planned". NewVoiceofUkraine (English version)
British military sources say they don't have an analysis yet, and I've not heard anything from American military sources--either way.
Meanwhile out of Russia we have this headline..."Head of Russian oil giant Lukoil dies after falling from hospital window, reports state media"
Now I've heard of children falling out of windows, but not adults, at least not willingly.
British military sources say they don't have an analysis yet, and I've not heard anything from American military sources--either way.
Everybody is being pretty quiet now that this has begun. Anecdotal evidence from eye witnesses (well supposedly) has some Russian soldiers swimming the river to get away from the Ukrainian advance. I wouldn't be surprised. That would explain why Russia is holding that nuclear power plant over everyone's heads. However, I have no confirmation of that.
If the assessment that a lot of Russian units are not at full strength is true, I would not bet against mass surrenders or retreats.
Word is that Russia has lost far more soldiers than originally thought, either KIA or wounded. The emphasis is on killed, as the Russian's do not have good medical care on the battlefield and it is hard to evacuate because of Ukrainian activities. The Russians have apparently been leaving quite a few of their dead in Ukraine, rather than bringing the bodies home.
Ukrainian intelligence has upped the estimate of Russian dead from 35,000 to 65,000.
"Head of Russian oil giant Lukoil dies after falling from hospital window,
reports state media"
There've been better than a half dozen wealthy anti-Ukraine-war Russian businessmen who've supposedly suicided since Putin began his war against Ukraine (favorite method by an overwhelming margin being falls from tall buildings). The list of supposed suicides includes Daniel Rapoport, another wealthy Russian businessman--Latvian by birth actually, not exactly Russian, but close enough (living in Washington D.C. in exile after criticizing Putin's War against Ukraine). He was found dead after falling from the roof of his apartment building on 14 August. D.C. police have accepted it as a suicide although Mr. Rapoport's family says they're fools ts to believe that. Lots of people agree with the family. (Mr. Rapoport's business partner also died after falling from a roof, in Moscow in 2017.)
"I would not bet against mass surrenders or retreats."
I wouldn't expect the Ukrainians to be in any great rush to lock horns with Russian troops who've had five months to dig into and harden defensive positions.
The Ukrainians have been breaking up the Russians' logistical supply chains. Seems to me the next logical thing to do after that would be to deplete the Russians' stock on hand of ammo and food and such--to draw fire 'til the firing rate slows down, before making any serious moves to try to overrun dug-in Russian defensive positions.
A too early frontal assault seems to me to be a bad idea, a waste of all that past effort screwin' with the Russian supply chains.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
(I'm more than a little dubious of the Ukrainian tally of Russian dead.)
Off topic: The Department of Justice is finally getting around to admitting that Trump might still have possession of unknown and uncounted Top Secret government documents. Kinda overdue I think. The possibility was obvious--he might have valuable stuff still hidden that his pal Putin would pay well to get hold of.
...-he might have valuable stuff still hidden that his pal Putin would pay well to get hold of.
That was my first thought when I heard he took documents to Mar-A-Lago.
I haven't noticed a lot of shock on the part of the European nations that were pulling fuel from the North Stream I pipeline about the Russians shutting down that supply line indefinitely.
Lots of anger that the Russians are doing this to them now instead of doing it to their children and grandchildren sometime down the timeline (as had been their hope) but not a lot of shock. Any semblance of shock seems to have transformed itself into simple anger and resignation.
I've been trying to figure out what the Ukrainian 'counteroffensive' is up to, in the absence of any reporting allowed by the Ukrainian government.
Near as I can make it out the Ukrainians are not simply trying to draw fire from the entrenched Russian positions (and figuring to attack when the Russians finally run out of ammo on their front lines).
Rather, the Ukrainians are slowly and methodically blowing the Russians forward positions to pieces.
The Russians have dug in and hardened their entrenched positions as best they can, and they do know how to do that. However, the American M777 can fire a shell 25 miles expecting it to hit within a 16 foot circle centered on the selected target. (Drop a couple of miles off of the reach for maximum range and the accuracy goes up considerably. The Ukrainians are known to target individual combat vehicles with the M777.) The British howitzers have an equivalent accuracy.
So, rather than march across the open fields and meadows of southern Ukraine and get the shit shot out of themselves in the process, the Ukrainians are slowly and methodically destroying those dug in and hardened defensive positions with the artillery equivalent of sniper shots.
(Or so I'm beginning to suspect.)
I think the Ukrainians have rather adeptly mixed the classic moves of the regular military with the tactics of an insurgency. By that I mean they are carefully picking their targets to not just destroy the enemy but also to demoralize him. They know Russia has more resources, supposedly, and are careful not to expend theirs if at all possible. They are content to wait for their moments. And the Russians have given them a target rich environment.
Btw, have you heard anything about air raid sirens going off in Rostov-on-Don in Russia? There was mention of that happening the other day on a Ukrainian You Tube channel I watch. I'll have to check around to see if there is anything more on that.
Huh! I got into a debate the other day with someone who is a Trump supporter. He was trying to say the main stream media was censuring by silence because they didn't report on a livestream presentation about 2020 election fraud. They have not given up on that idea, and probably won't either.
I tried to suggest that the main stream media has a code of ethics to follow which will preclude coverage of something that isn't factual.
We only went back and forth a couple of times before he decided it really wasn't worth the effort to continue. I don't think he or any of the others on that email chain will change their minds due to anything that I said, though.
"He was trying to say the main stream media was censuring by
silence because they didn't report on a livestream
presentation about 2020 election fraud."
You'd probably do better by pointing out that FoxNews, Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Laura Ingraham, OANN, and all the other right-wing crazie favored major media authorities wouldn't report on it either. That tends to discombobulate them.
(They're usually not clever enough to realize that there's no way the 'establishment' fascist media crazies gonna give more publicity to the QAnon/Internet/YouTubeChannel crazies. The professional right-winger talking heads got a hard enough time keeping the faithful from all going over to QAnon as it is. They ain't gonna support those 'alternate' weirdnesses by name for fear of losing their audience permanently--but that same failure covers for the 'mainstream' media ignoring it as well.)
________________________________
Re: Rostov-on-Don: I've not heard anything on that subject.
"On Monday, the Ukrainian military southern command
claimed that the 127th Regiment of Russia’s 1st Army Corp
had refused to fight. It was the second time they highlighted
what they said was the refusal of a Russian unit to fight.
"'One of the reasons is unsatisfactory all-round support:
Personnel in advanced positions were left even without
water,' the Ukrainian military said in a statement. 'The special
services of the occupying forces took measures against the
rebels — they were taken out of their positions.'"
NYT
"Kremlin-backed occupation authorities in southern Ukraine’s
Kherson region said on Monday that they were putting a planned
referendum to join Russia on hold"
NYT
You'd probably do better by pointing out that FoxNews...
He did actually mention Fox News in his reference to the mainstream media. I replied that even Fox News has learned the consequences of promoting lies, via lawsuits. The idea of not wanting to promote the competition was good. Although I probably couldn't call the QAnon folks the "crazies" because he may still believe in them. He used to.
*deep mournful sigh*
On Monday, the Ukrainian military southern command
claimed that the 127th Regiment of Russia’s 1st Army Corp
had refused to fight. It was the second time they highlighted
what they said was the refusal of a Russian unit to fight.
There is word going around that not only do the Russians in the occupied territories not have enough supplies but they are getting stiffed in their combat pay. The rumor goes that the Russian government considers the occupied territories to be part of Russia and they don't give combat pay to soldiers deployed in Russia. I wonder, would Putin be that stupid? Never mind, forget I asked. He did think invading Ukraine was a good idea after all.
Zelensky announced they are attacking Russian forces from the air in the south.
Can't get into the NYT's article. It wants me to create an account, which I don't want to do. Oh well, I guess I get the gist.
Word is going around that the Ukrainians have crossed the Siverskyi Donets river, the same one that the Russians lost so many soldiers trying to cross back in May.
Don't know if they will stay or if this was just a hit and run attack.
"It wants me to create an account, which I don't want to do."
Turn off your Javascript for that page.
(Among other things, the Ukrainians claim to have destroyed the warehouse where the ballots for the referendum were being stored--burned it all.)
"…would Putin be that stupid?"
Word I heard was that the military officers in Ukraine were stealing the soldiers' combat pay.
Zelensky has again requested that Biden declare Russia a terrorist nation.
That would put the US in a difficult place with regard to negotiating the release of Americans being held in Russian prisons as that would mean the end of diplomatic ties.
Word I heard was that the military officers in Ukraine were stealing the soldiers' combat pay.
That could also be true.
U.S. intelligence is reporting that Russia is purchasing 'millions' of basic (i.e. not 'smart') missiles, rockets, and artillery shells from North Korea. NYT This would suggest that Putin is figuring that his war against Ukraine will drag on for a long time.
(It also supposes that North Korea can actually produce and provide 'millions' of missiles, rockets and artillery shells and that they'll work if they're provided. We might do well to remember that fully half of Russia's home-produced 'smart' munitions don't work--either they don't go where they're supposed to go, or they don't explode when they get there. And that's not counting the ones that are supposed to 'air-burst', but don't explode 'til after they've hit the ground.)
"Don't know if they will stay…"
Looks like they came to stay.
"Luhansk regional governor Serhiy Haidai said there were
early signs of “good news” in the process of “de-occupation of
our region.” On Telegram on Monday, Haidai wrote that over
the course of several days, 100 pieces of equipment were
destroyed and 400 Russian soldiers were killed in the
occupied city of Kreminna [on the Siverskyi Donets River].
“The Russians already feel that they will soon run from our
land,” he wrote."
WashingtonPost (also behind javascript)
Yes, I did see that they did retake a town on the occupied side of the river. They are retaking pieces here and there. Probably looking for the most strategically valuable and the most vulnerable.
This would suggest that Putin is figuring that his war against Ukraine will drag on for a long time.
Time may not be on his side anymore. But even if he is replaced that doesn't mean who comes after will be any better, for Ukraine or Russia.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch Couy Griffin, the New Mexico county commissioner who founded Cowboys for Trump, has been removed from office due to his role in the January 6th insurrection.
A New Mexico judge on Tuesday removed January 6 rioter and Cowboys for Trump founder Couy Griffin from his elected position as a county commissioner for his role in the US Capitol attack.
The ruling was the result of a lawsuit seeking Griffin's removal, which alleged that he violated a clause in 14th Amendment of the Constitution by participating in an "insurrection" against the US government. He had been convicted of trespassing earlier this year.
The ruling is the first time that an elected official has been removed from office as a result of their participation or support for the January 6, 2021, riot. This is also the first time a judge has formally ruled that the events of January 6 were an "insurrection."
I watched an interview with this guy some time back and I got to say I am pleased his is not longer in office.
his is not
he is no
Also...
U.S. intelligence is reporting that Russia is purchasing 'millions' of basic (i.e. not 'smart') missiles, rockets, and artillery shells from North Korea.
Judging by the way the Russians waste ammo. their smoking problems, and the Ukrainian's ability to remove stockpiles I am not surprised they are hunting for replacements.
While trolling through a comments section I ran across this comment regarding the Ukrainian counteroffensive:
From what I'm hearing this map doesn't nearly do justice to what was actually taken. Across a 35km front there where advances in Kharkiv taking 15 villages with Balakliila now surrounded. It started with an attack - clearly planned for a long time - north of Balakliila. Then it was followed by an attack to the south of the town. Russia then moved to reposition forces from the North.
Which is when a 3rd attack was launched further north catching the Russia's on the hop, totally unprepared and steamrolling two villages. Incredible success. They then joined forces with the first group and immediately drove northeast with the Russians in disarray.
Then a 4th attack came from nowhere further north on the front still which again steamrolled 10km into enemy lines and attacked Volokhiv Yar, a town at an important crossroads from the North West while the 1st and 3rd attacking forces struck from the South West. the town fell quickly. They then pushed further North East still towards Semenivka.
Then a 5th attack came further north again on the frontline - well, what had been a frontline in the morning - and from what I'm hearing basically met no serious resistance. They were stopped just outside Shevchenkove. Someone measure that distance, it's far... Stunning. Izium is looking untenable, the entire supply route is gone. The Donbas and Kharkiv offensive plans are in tatters and they are desperately regrouping.
Today was a very, very bad day to be an orc in Ukraine.
Thought you might find it interesting.
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