I was talking to someone the other day about our current state of affairs. We were specifically speaking about the internet and social media. He was surprised that I would support the banning of some content on social media platforms. He felt that was an infringement on free speech. It is a question for all free societies. I think part of the answer lies in the line between my freedom and yours. Yes, we have the right to speak out minds. But what happens when that speech endangers others?
Any number of fringe groups have existed for years in our country. When I say “fringe” I mean groups who espouse beliefs that most people would find extreme or out of the mainstream of thought. With good reason. But in the age of the internet and social media these groups have found a forum to reach millions of people who would normally not even be aware of their existence. It is something that has exacerbated our divisions and encouraged violence in our cities.
You saw it with QAnon, which led to a man bringing a weapon to a pizza restaurant in the belief that a pedophile ring was operated out of it's basement. A ring run by Hillary Clinton no less. Most people would understand how ridiculous this idea was, but not this man. He believed it and he endangered all of the innocent people within that establishment when he fired his gun. Do I believe that “Q” and those who follow his/her “bread crumbs” have the right to spout nonsense that endangers others? No, I do not. Words can be just as powerful as a gun. Because they can move people to action. We who live in a free society also have a responsibility to respect the rights of others, to take care to act within the laws of our country.
Which brings me to Boogaloo Bois. “Boogaloo” is the term these people use for civil war. They are a loose group of people who seem to have an ax to grind with any form of government. They seem to have played a role in the unrest that arose in Minneapolis after the George Floyd killing by Minneapolis police and the attempted kidnapping of the Governor of Michigan.
They also have shown they have no problem working with a terrorist organization, Hamas. So do I think letting people like that have a forum to spread their hate, lies and violence is responsible free speech? No, not so much.
Last but not least there is also the question of who these people really are. There are those who would be quite happy to sow discord in our country in order to gain an advantage over us.
302 comments:
1 – 200 of 302 Newer› Newest»On a lighter note...I heard a couple Russian jokes the other day that I thought you all might enjoy.
"How do all Russian jokes begin? By looking over your shoulder."
"How can Pravda be improved? Less ink."
I am curious. The 1st Amendment applies only to the government, of course. It's no violation of the Constitution if a private entity (like Facebook or Twitter or any of the other "social media" companies) decides to prohibit certain speech on their platforms. (No church would be expected to tolerate an atheist disrupting their religious services and weekly worship with a distracting discourse on why it's stupid to believe in God and anybody who claimed he had a right to appear and disturb the services would get laughed out of court when he tried to enforce such a claim of right.) Of course the church's prohibition against his voicing of his own viewpoint to the crowd they'd assembled for their own purposes would constitute an impediment to his free speech, but hardly anybody would expect them to tolerate him.
So, my question… Did that distinction come up? The government/private distinction.
(The Russian jokes were amusing.)
Did that distinction come up? The government/private distinction.
It did not. I did not think to argue that because I did not think that anything I might argue would change his mind. The free speech argument is made by so many on the right who seem to think anything goes, even that which hurts others. But it is their version of burning and looting via words.
"The free speech argument is made by so many on the right
who seem to think…"
Yeah…, well…, I'd tend to question whether they really think.
Maybe they just repeat the lines they've heard on Radio-Right-Wing and FoxNews and inside their internet silos.
It seems like they've come to the group conclusion that other people have to bear the financial costs associated with supporting their favored "speech", otherwise it's not "free". (I've noticed that economics is not usually one of the better understood subjects amongst the right-wingers.)
They don't seem to understand that "free speech" is about them being free to say what they want on their own platform. It's not about them being guaranteed an audience nor being guaranteed access to someone else's platform.
Lee C.,
How is it possible that you can't see that you yourself are squatting down in your own silo, wearing blinkers and TDS-tinted glasses?
You've created this bizarre collection of "Trumpkins" that bear zero resemblance to the conservatives in my family. As I told you, my family is evenly divided between liberals and conservatives, each group following their mostly innate disposition, half of my siblings more open to out-groups and the other half more cautious and wary of out-groups. I'm don't belong to either group, so I just nod and listen. Both groups of siblings are hard-working, responsible adults.
The fact that you spend hours each day obsessing about "Trumpkins," your own fantasy creation, really suggests that you need some kind of therapeutic intervention. But my guess is that you live a lonely, isolated existence (yeah, I know, stating the obvious).
After November 3, no matter who wins, Lee C., go on a date, join a group of some kind, put away the laptop for at least a month.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
[Jeffrey] As I told you, my family is evenly divided between liberals and conservatives, each group following their mostly innate disposition, half of my siblings more open to out-groups and the other half more cautious and wary of out-groups. I'm don't belong to either group, so I just nod and listen. Both groups of siblings are hard-working, responsible adults.
I know this was not addressed to me, but if I may I would like to respond.
There is nothing wrong with being conservative or liberal. I am sure that your family, Jeffrey, are good people who simply believe in different methods of achieving the same thing. I consider myself to be a mix of both, btw. It depends on what aspect of living we are discussing.
But it is those, whether they are the far left or right, who take their ideology to the extreme who are causing the discord and disunity we are seeing today. And by giving them license we are opening ourselves up to attack from those who would tear us apart. Sometimes all it takes is for good people to do nothing.
It is important that we stand up for our unity as a country, for those who have been marginalized and for those who cannot help themselves. That is who I believe we really are, whether we are of the left or the right persuasion.
Donald Trump is not doing that, despite whatever lines he is feeding his supporters. Sorry.
Strange. Most MSM report a win for Biden in the last debate. I watched it fully w a non aligned pal and we both saw Trump crushing t.
"…we both saw Trump crushing [i]t."
That probably has to do with differing political traditions and differing expectations. I'd imagine an audience of those Boogaloo Boys whom Lynnette mentioned would think Trump "crushed it" as well.
An update on the Tennessee company that was posting job listings for security positions in Minnesota, they have pulled the listing.
"…they have pulled the listing."
Gotta wonder if they filled all their available slots.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
I've been reading news reports about Trump's campaign rallies in the days following last Thursday's debate. Looks like he'd prefer to just ignore the current spiking of covid-19 cases, and when he can't get away with that he's doubling down on selling his alternate reality in which the virus is about to either disappear on its own or be subdued by the vaccine that's lurking just around the corner, waiting patiently to make its appearance just a few days after the November election.
This campaign message does not seem to be catching on with non-Trumpkins.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
"Whether Trump wins or loses, the Republican [Party's]
evolution into authoritarianism will go on. Even if his
presidency ends in complete ruin and repudiation, Trump has
given his party something it never had before: the
performance of a despot — bullying his rivals, criminalizing
anybody who challenges him, violating the law with impunity.
They have [had] a taste [of] it now. They will crave more."
NewYorkMagazineIntelligencer
Four more years of George?
Hello? Anyone home in there?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
There's a reason I do not have Google, Facebook, or Twitter accounts.
Bret and Heather Weinstein, lifelong Democrats, lay out some of the reasons why that is so during the first twenty-five minutes of this podcast.
DarkHorse Podcast 51.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Gotta wonder if they filled all their available slots.
It sounds like they backed down. However, time will tell. If any unwelcome gun toting anonymous people show up in Minneapolis we'll start to question that.
[Jeffrey] There's a reason I do not have Google, Facebook, or Twitter accounts.
I can certainly understand your hesitation. There is a lot of trash littering the internet.
I will check out you link tonight.
I watched the 60 Minutes interview last night that Trump cut a little short. I can see why he was a little irritated. Leslie Stahl didn't pull any punches, pushing hard against his...er...fake news. I give her credit for trying to be nice about it, but she did press him.
After he left he sent in a book he said was his health care plan. Huge mass of papers, most of which were Executive Orders. They went through it carefully and didn't find any health care plan lurking between it's covers.
It was all Donald Trump theatre. Of course, those who follow him blindly will just say it was the media who are lying about what the book contained. Some people are really totally brainwashed.
you
That should be "your link" in my response to Jeffrey. *sigh*
"…but she did press him."
And he's notorious for getting upset with non-deferential women. However, I noticed an amp up in his attitude after she observed that his crowd sizes appeared to be significantly down at his new airport-centered rallies. (The locals don't report crowd sizes at the airport rallies because those aren't subject to local fire codes and so the local fire marshals don't keep track.)
Lynnette,
I deleted my accounts with Google and Facebook because of privacy concerns. Twitter I tried for a few weeks over a decade ago, really disliked the platform, and dropped it.
I still think blogs are a better way to communicate complex thoughts. And I'd also add podcasts.
So I still read a few blogs--mostly personal diary in nature--and listen to podcasts. I don't watch TV news or read newspapers. The ideas generated by even that one Bret and Heather Weinstein podcast are far more valuable than anything coming from either CNN or Fox.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
I see that Amy Coney Barrett has been confirmed as the newest of the Supreme Trumpkins. That gives the reactionary hard-right political element on the Court (holding a self-proclaimed "originalist" political viewpoint) a solid 5-4 majority; and it creates a solid conservative majority of 6-3 (including Chief Justice Roberts, who sometimes tries to avoid overtly political decisions).
It is often admonished, "be careful what you wish for". And in this case I think that caution applies. Conservatives have been largely protected from the democratic backlash against their politics by a reasonably sane, if solidly conservative, Supreme Court. It's likely that's about to end, Roberts can join them or dissent, it makes little difference. They've got it 5-4 even if Roberts adheres to law and precedent, 6-3 if he goes along.
With the new "originalist" majority firmly seated, I think it'll be only a few years before the High Court is reorganized, one way or another. (They very well may be simply intimidated into following the law, much as the Lochner Court was intimidated by FDR's "court packing" efforts. But, if that doesn't work, there will be changes made.) And, in the meantime, the political right-wing in Congress is gonna get some of the stuff they've fought so hard for, stuff that nobody every actually thought would happen. That's gonna make the political right-wing seriously unpopular, pretty much nationwide. Without the Supreme Court protecting them from the fallout of their own inclinations, they shall soon have to face up to that fallout. Gonna take a lot of 'em by surprise.
Lee C.,
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett is a "reactionary hard-right political element on the Court"? A "right-wing Trumpkin"?
Jeezus, Lee. At least take a peek out the door of the silo.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Four More Years of GEORGE!!!
And keep the lid on the trashcan.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"A 'right-wing Trumpkin'?"
That should be the operating expectation for another 86 days. After that Trump will be but a memory to her, but the "reactionary hard-right" politician wearing the robes of Justice will remain. That's why he nominated her and that's why they rammed her through. She knows that. As do you. As do I.
Folks who don't know will learn soon 'nuff. And then the backlash will occur.
Quaere though, as an aside:
"A 'right-wing Trumpkin'?"
Jeffrey @ Mon Oct 26, 10:34 pm ↑↑
Just who were you pretending to quote there.
Lee C.,
One question. How did a backwoods cracker from Oklahoma become an Occupy Progressive?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Okay, one more question.
Is "Trumpkin" your neologism, or is that used everywhere? I don't watch TV or read newspapers, so I'm not sure.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
You ignored my question Jeffrey.
You really believe you've never said "right-wing Trumpkin"?
That's funny.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
That's not an answer either.
Moving right along then…
The NewYorkTimes has an editorial out. Real editorial, not one of those Op-Ed things penned by a contributer. Entitled:
R.I.P., G.O.P."
subtitled
The Party of Lincoln had a good run. Then came Mr. Trump.
They may be a little premature, but they're on the right trail.
It's fairly short, as befits the subject matter.
Lee C.,
Here's my answer.
First, let's make one thing clear:
You're a miserable fuckhead without a life.
In your mind, you live with some twisted view of the world in which everyone else is wrong and only YOU are right. All the time. You never show interest in real debate. It was the same on the blogs back in the IBC days. You created inane fights with all of the other commenters -- just like you do here with Petes and Marcus. You always descend to nitpicking pettiness, just like your last request. Completely stupid. It's not normal, Lee, as I've told you many times before.
You have no friends because you're a disagreeable asshole.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
WashingtonPost: The mail is running late these days. Mail in ballots are backing up inside the USPS. Surprise, surprise, surprise!
Both campaigns are now telling their people to push for hand delivery of mail in ballots; either drop boxes or delivery in person to the county election authority's offices. Failing either of those options, they're telling the voters from whom they expect support to vote in-person and risk it in the long lines if they're brave enough.
[Jeffrey] You really believe you've never said "right-wing Trumpkin"?
It would be redundant, Jeffrey.
[Lee] Folks who don't know will learn soon 'nuff. And then the backlash will occur.
Some forget the fights back in the 60's. There really is a reason that the founding fathers desired to make America all inclusive. Yes, I know, that really hasn't happened yet, but it was a goal.
To abandon that goal, by leaning right or left, will cause all sorts of problems. Elections are supposed to be peaceful revolutions. If they only cement us in place or force us backwards, it raises the danger that they won't be peaceful.
Oh, I fell asleep last night and forgot about the links. I will try to remember tonight...
"There really is a reason that the founding fathers desired to
make America all inclusive."
Some of them.
Interesting notes in the case of Michael Flynn. The DoJ is trying to dismiss the charges after Flynn pled quilty. The trial judge is not happy with this. It's been up to the appellate court and back down again (couple of times I think, once for sure). Trial judge finally got frustrated and Ordered that the DoJ lawyers now on the case had to "verify" that the statements in their motions were correct and that the DoJ documents they offered in support of those motions was accurate and had not been tampered with (the original lawyers, career prosecutors, had walked off the case when they were ordered to sign off on the DoJ efforts to dismiss the case).
Well, the new lawyers (political appointees thought loyal to Trump) bitched and moaned, but eventually complied, and signed the necessary documents "verifying" the DoJ's other documents, the ones they'd used as exhibits in support of their motion to dismiss the charges against Michael Flynn. Specifically, they said they'd checked with the lawyers for the now-fired "FBI deputy director Andrew McCabe and former FBI agent Peter Strzok and confirmed that two sets of handwritten notes — key evidence in Flynn’s case — were valid and free of any alterations." (The notes were originally were by McCabe and Strozok.)
Thing is, it turns out the lawyers for both McCabe and Strzok had unambiguously refused to vouch for accuracy of those exhibits. But the DoJ lawyers signed off on a "verification" that the lawyers for both McCabe and Strzok had confirmed their accuracy. Politico
This may come up again after the election. Right now everybody's distracted, watching the election. But this may come up again later.
I've come to notice that the Trump campaign has not been able to get the "Hunter Biden Scandal" off the ground. None of major conservative media will still cover it (save for the first salvo by the New York Post, and they've not followed up). Even FoxNews won't go with it.
The problem seems to be that nobody wants to go on record with the story of what Joe Biden actually did that was wrong. (Save for the effort to get the Ukrainian prosecutor fired, the one who was not investigating Burisma, as it turned out.)
So, what FoxNews and Brietbart and the rest are doing is making major noises about how the mainstream media is "suppressing" the news of the Hunter Biden Scandal. They keep talking about that like it's some sort of conspiracy to not cover what the conservative press isn't covering either.
But, it doesn't look like this is getting any traction outside of the dedicated Trumpkin bubbles.
Ok, so Trumps gonna win handidly on Election Day. But ate the Dems gonna accept that or are they gonna try to steal it w mail in ballots?
Some of them.
Yes, I know, but it was a start.
It's the idea that we are going backwards that I so hate.
Jeffrey,
I started to watch the podcast you linked to but ended up not finishing it.
It just appears to be another soapbox for people to stand on and express their views. Just like you would find in an opinion section of the newspaper. The only difference is that these people get to be on TV.
I don't see where it is an improvement on those reporters who are careful about researching their facts and writing an informative story.
This may come up again after the election. Right now everybody's distracted, watching the election. But this may come up again later.
I suspect there are all sorts of things that would come up after the election and inauguration if Trump is not re-elected. That's probably why he is really so intent on another 4 years.
One week until we start to tally the vote.
Could be another week or so before we know whether the Supreme Trumpkins will try to re-install Trump for a second term in spite of the vote count.
I'd like to think it unlikely. But, the enablers have clearly shown that they don't expect to get a second chance. And they did rush Barrett onto the Court for a reason, and Trump did tell us what was that reason. He said it a couple times, out loud and in public, before his staff managed to convince him to not talk 'bout that 'til after the election.
So, maybe two weeks before we know how it turns out. (The important question is whether the enablers concede or whether they fight it. The Trumpkins and the white supremacists very well may take to the streets, but they're not the real threat.)
n.b. The guys mapping out the odds and the electoral college say that if Biden wins either Florida or Pennsylvania they can post Trump's epitaph and go to bed.
Here's to hoping one of them gets a call next Wednesday night.
Pennsylvania could get called reasonably early.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
"…are they gonna try to steal it w mail in ballots?"
Your question isn't very clear. What precisely would that entail?
Miles Taylor, who was chief of staff to Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielsen, has come out of the closet. He is the Trump administration official who wrote the Anonymous Op-Ed and subsequent book, "Anonymous: A Warning" about the internal resistance to Donald Trump.
Trump has announced he is opening the Tongass National forest in Alaska to logging and other development.
Asshole.
"Trump has announced he is opening the Tongass National
forest in Alaska…"
Campaign move. He can't get it done. The lawsuit's by environmentalists will tie him up past January, and then he won't matter.
But, yeah, "asshole" 'bout covers it, even as a pure campaign move.
Several counties in Pennsylvania (Republican dominated county governments) have announced that they will not begin counting absentee and mail-in votes until November 4th, the day after the election. Reuters It would appear that they hope to prompt Trump to declare a Trump win in Pennsylvania before they begin to count the early votes.
(Pennsylvania law allows them to start counting the early and mail-in votes on Tuesday, but these Republican led counties have elected to delay those counts 'til Thursday instead. They claim it's a staffing problem, but that doesn't really make any sense--getting an early start makes sense if one has a staffing problem, starting late makes no sense at all.)
So, maybe Pennsylvania won't get called early.
Well, it looks like a certain Biden victory.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"Even if [Trump] loses next week, it is a ‛NeverTrump’
delusion that the old GOP coalition is going to be resur-
rected. The political demand isn’t there, and whomever is
nominated in 2024 will likely have an agenda that more
closely resembles Trump’s than Mitt Romney’s."
RealClearPolitics
So, after Trump loses this election, who is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination in 2024.
Trump! That's who.
(The author, Sean Trende, is a long-time Republican pollster, cheerleader, and self-described "conservative" pundit.)
Lynnette,
Thanks for taking a listen to the podcast with Heather and Bret Weinstein. I thought you might enjoy it because they are Democrats like you, but who are critical of both the Democratic and Republican parties equally -- in particular, examining the charge of influence-peddling. But if it didn't grab you, that's cool.
Heather and Bret are university lecturers in biology -- well, until a couple years ago. They're the couple who ran into trouble at Evergreen College. You may have heard about that. Anyway, their Q and A podcasts are great because they utilize their expertise on evolutionary biology to answer questions on a wide range of topics.
They're not on TV. It's a podcast that is also run live on YouTube.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lynnette and Lee C.,
It really does look like Biden will win next Tuesday.
But on the weird chance of a Trump victory, have you guys made any mental-health contingency plans for that possibility? It seems like both of you are heavily invested in a Trump defeat.
I'm fine either way. I mean, first of all, I'm living halfway around the world and I haven't lived in the US in eight years or so. What happens in the US is a bit distant for me, kind of theoretical.
Anyway, if Trump wins, will it change you?
If you decide to leave the US if Trump is president for another four years, it's going to be difficult to find a country to move to. Believe me, I check out all the options on a weekly basis. Right now, there are still only a handful of countries that allow non-nationals to cross their borders.
Probably your best bet would be Turkey. You can buy an online visa for $50, valid for three months. I already have one. If you want to meet in Istanbul, let me know. Most likely that's where I'll be after China.
Turkish food is really good. C'mon, forget the Trumpkin nonsense. Let's hang out in Istanbul. Dinner and then off to a cafe for Turkish coffee -- also a real treat.
Stop wasting your life worrying about Trump and Biden. There's a much bigger, more interesting world out there to explore.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Jeffrey
” Well, it looks like a certain Biden victory.”
I would have thought you had a better grasp on things. Trump is going to win handidly.
Jeffrey,
“ Turkish food is really good.”
No not really. Have you even been there?
It’s a lot of “lamb” that is actually sheep and tastes like chewing on an old wool sweater. The bread is stale since they bake wo yeast. Their “Turkish meatballs” taste way better the Swedish style.
I’ve been to a lot of countries and have tried a lot of foods and Turkey did not impress in the slightest. Their version of pizza is plain awful.
The only Arab/ moslem country with a kitchen to brag about is imo Lebanon, which is most likely due to the French heritage.
They do make nice pastries though, the Turks, with lots of nuts and honey. If you’re for really sweet pastries you’ll love the Turkish ones.
For me it’s a bit too much but a small piece of pastry w a cup of black coffee is very agreeable.
Beautiful city otherwise, Istanbul, we really should take back at least the portion west of the Bosphorous and re- christen Saint Helena. The Blue Mosque we could turn into a museum or better yet a concert stadium.
I had it in my head that November 3rd came on a Wednesday this year.
Lee C. @ Fri Oct 30, 06:41 am ↑↑
Shoulda looked it up. November 3rd is a Tuesday. Adjust the other days in that paragraph accordingly.
By the way, we cracked a thousand covid-19 deaths again yesterday. And the trajectory is still accelerating upwards.
Top Trump campaign surrogates have been told to keep their schedules open for continuing Trump campaign rallies after the election on November 3rd.
I s'pect ya'll can figure that one out without me pointing out where those tracks are heading.
Marcus,
I was only in Istanbul for three days years ago, so my sample size in country is very small. But when I lived in Germany (West Germany, to be accurate), some of the best food I had was in Turkish restaurants. Lots of small dishes with different taste options, a little like a typical Korean spread. But I surely may change my opinion if I had more exposure to Turkish cuisine.
Oh, and while living in Berlin, I mostly lived on Doener Kebabs, a Turkish-German gyro/gyros-like staple for cash-strapped Berliners.
About the election results, I'm just looking at the aggregation of poll predictions. All of them point to a Biden victory. Yes, I know they effed up in 2016, but I have to assume they've adjusted their procedures and modeling since then, right? I mean, they can't be embarrassingly wrong two times in row.
Just the little I see from here, it does seem that there's much more enthusiasm among voters for Trump than there is among voters for Biden. But it could just be an illusion. I really don't know.
I don't think Lynnette and Lee C. are very keen on Biden. It's really anyone but Trump for them. If that kind of motivation gets more Democrats to vote, then the polls are accurate.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
[Jeffrey] Anyway, if Trump wins, will it change you?
I will never be a Trump supporter. His is fundamentally an undemocratic persona. He is not right as president for the America I believe in.
Will I leave? No, I have no thought of leaving. This is my country and I will stay. I understand why so many people did not leave Nazi Germany until it was too late.
I will hope that you are right and Biden does win.
[Jeffrey] I'm fine either way. I mean, first of all, I'm living halfway around the world and I haven't lived in the US in eight years or so. What happens in the US is a bit distant for me, kind of theoretical.
It may seem like another four years of Trump will not affect you, living in another country, but I suspect it will. I think we are already seeing the ripple effects of a distant uninvolved America in world affairs.
The world may well see the effects of a dominant China.
Jeffrey,
“I was only in Istanbul for three days years ago, so my sample size in country is very small. But when I lived in Germany (West Germany, to be accurate), some of the best food I had was in Turkish restaurants. Lots of small dishes with different taste options, a little like a typical Korean spread. But I surely may change my opinion if I had more exposure to Turkish cuisine.“
It’s not all that uncommon that an ethnic kitchen is different in a diaspora than in the native country, sometimes for good sometimes for bad. Like Chinese food I Sweden, it’s pretty awful, and I learned recently that’s bc ONE Chinese billionaire here is behind basically every single restaurant in the country and they serve the same crappy dishes all over.
“Oh, and while living in Berlin, I mostly lived on Doener Kebabs, a Turkish-German gyro/gyros-like staple for cash-strapped Berliners.“
A well made Doener Kebab is ace. They are usually great here, I know they are great in Berlin, but I failed to find a good one in Istanbul.
“About the election results, I'm just looking at the aggregation of poll predictions. All of them point to a Biden victory. Yes, I know they effed up in 2016, but I have to assume they've adjusted their procedures and modeling since then, right? I mean, they can't be embarrassingly wrong two times in row.”
They sure can be, if the aim of the poll isn’t to tell reality but to bolster the sentiments of one side and try and demoralize the other. Fake polls.
“Just the little I see from here, it does seem that there's much more enthusiasm among voters for Trump than there is among voters for Biden. But it could just be an illusion. I really don't know.”
It’s an obvious fact that Trump enthusiasts are way, way more energized.
“I don't think Lynnette and Lee C. are very keen on Biden. It's really anyone but Trump for them. If that kind of motivation gets more Democrats to vote, then the polls are accurate.”
Who the hell could be keen on Biden? He has the looks and charisma of a smoked sea bass. They’re #nevertrumpers is all.
"They’re #nevertrumpers is all."
That's enough.
I knew that Lee, which is why I posted it. You’d vote for just about anyone that’s not Trump. Biden or AOC for sure. Just not Bad Orange Man.
Trump’s gonna win though. LOL
Four more years with that fat Orange bastard. It’ll be soooo funny.
"AOC" is never gonna get near the nomination. That's a right-wingers' pipe dream. (She very well may bolt the Democratic Party at some point in time and re-join the Socialist Party; maybe she'd be in the running for the nomination there. Or, could be the "Democratic Socialists" organization might formally organize as an actual political party. But, she's never gonna get nowhere near the Democratic nomination.)
She’s the new Pelosi who’s gonna be around for 50 years in Congress dragging the Dems leftwards. Can you not see that?
Of course she’ll get into the play for pay business with her heavier donors eventually, so the commie angle is likely to be downplayed as time goes by.
"She’s the new Pelosi who’s gonna be around for 50 years…"
She may be around for 50 years, but she'll not be a Democrat that long. There's too many ex-Republicans gonna be joining the Democratic Party in the next few years. Gonna move the party towards the right a little bit. She'll not find that tolerable.
In fact, the leftists will get generally pissed, and then bolt en masse is what's gonna happen (unlike the Republican Party which surrendered to their wingnuts after having failed to drive them out).
I'm guessing that'll happen by 2030, 2034 latest--maybe even by 2024, but I won't bet on it that quick.
You fail to see her self interest Lee. Once she’s been accustomed to being a Congresswoman with the salary and the perks that comes with it there is no way she’ll break rank. So when President Trump hands over the reins to President Tucker Carlson in 2024 she will still be in congress schreetching and screaming, for the Democrats, collecting her salary.
Four more days and you get disabused of that fantasy. I can wait.
Nate Silver's 538 blog now has Biden favored over Trump by nine to one.
(Hillary was favored by Silver as low as 65/35 after James Comey dropped the political bomb on her; she'd been doing better than that, but Comey's public announcement knocked her back down to 65/35. She recovered from that, on Silver's chart, to 71/29 on the evening before the election.)
If I read his chart correctly his model projects Biden's win to likely be in landslide territory--near'bouts 400 electoral votes.
I can say this: on election night Trump is gonna crush it. But after mail in ballots who the hell can say? It could get nasty.
Personally I’m 90% out of the stock market bc an unclear result, which looks like a clear possibility, is gonna tank the markets.
A Biden win would prolly be pretty bad too actually, given the tax hikes and such that would follow.
A clear and overwhelming Trump victory and the market would soar. But that is frankly unlikely what with them mail in ballots.
Hey, Lee,
If Biden wins to you believe he will truly be able to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure?
https://twitter.com/EddieZipperer/status/1322218253247303681?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1322218253247303681%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fdailystormer.su%2Fvoters-doubt-that-biden-really-has-the-ability-to-mobilize-trunalimunumaprzure%2F
I just don’t know. trunalimunumaprzure Is a fickle bitch and has proven hard to mobilize.
So far Trump has stayed completely mum on his own ability to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure and some speculate that’s because Trump is just not convinced about his abliity to mobilize trunalimunumaprzure in the way Biden seems to be.
This is just damn funny.
Chain of Fools.
Even Obama is in there making an ass of himself. Jeezus. And Pelosi is just a freak show.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"Hey, Lee,"
Biden has a speech impediment. He sometimes can't get his words out; that's true. He's been like that for years now. He suppressed it mostly by determined effort and practice; never had any formal speech "therapy" that I know of. (There are certain triggers, but sometimes no trigger is readily apparent.) I've known about it for years. I don't consider it a problem for me.
So you think he’ll successfully mobilize trunalimunumaprzure?
It may prove sufficient that he's successfully gotten you to worry 'bout it.
Hey gang,
Have you guys watched any of the Trump and Biden rallies? I did for the first time today. Holy cow. The contrast is unbelievable. Trump's rallies are huge and like a big party. Biden's are poorly attended and feel like a funeral. I had no idea they were so different.
I don't know if it will make any difference on Tuesday, but it's hard to imagine why anyone would vote for Biden. At his rally, Biden just looks like an old guy who wants to take a nap as soon as he steps off the stage.
Lee C. and Lynnette, what exactly do you see in Biden? I don't get it.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"I don't think Lynnette and Lee C. are very keen on Biden.
It's really anyone but Trump for them."
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China @ Fri Oct 30, 09:01 pm ↑↑
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
"Lee C. and Lynnette, what exactly do you see in Biden?
I don't get it."
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China @ Sun Nov 01, 11:20 pm ↑↑
Lee C. and Lynnette, what exactly do you see in Biden? I don't get it.
Like Lee just said...he's not Trump.
Trump's rallies are huge and like a big party. Biden's are poorly attended and feel like a funeral. I had no idea they were so different.
The first is a sign of denial and lack of concern for the health of the attendees and their contacts, the second is a recognition of the current serious state of this country's Covid-19 status.
Sometimes, Jeffrey, a party isn't really the responsible action to take. It is the president's job to know that.
Fire him!
Lee C. and Lynnette,
Got it.
But it would have been better if the Democrats had fielded a better candidate. Listen, maybe when Biden was younger he might have been a possible candidate for the presidency, but right now he's not even close.
But yeah, by not being Trump, he does meet your requirements.
Boy, odd situation.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
If I read his chart correctly his model projects Biden's win to likely be in landslide territory--near'bouts 400 electoral votes.
I'm not going to count my election before it is hatched. Trump and the Republicans are making all sorts of efforts to invalidate lawful votes to skew the election in their favor.
Lee C. and Lynnette,
Oh, by the way, which candidate would you have preferred?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"Oh, by the way, which candidate would you have preferred?"
#NeverTrump
"Trump and the Republicans are making all sorts of efforts to
invalidate lawful votes to skew the election in their favor."
They also seem to be making barely concealed pleas for election and post election violence on Trump's behalf. (Plus they're looking to cash in on Amy Coney Barrett.)
How do you know who to vote for?
They also seem to be making barely concealed pleas for election and post election violence on Trump's behalf.
And cities are boarding up businesses.
We are seeing convoys of Trump supporters with their flags and banners interfering with a Biden campaign bus and blocking roads. All with the approval of our so called "President".
Crazy. I never thought I would see this in my country.
Lee C.
No, I mean, which of the sixteen or so Democratic contenders would you have been happy representing the Democratic ticket? Bernie Sanders? I think he was popular, right? I didn't follow any of that, so I'm not sure why he didn't win the primaries. I also heard the name Buttigieg (spelling might be off on that name). Harris might have been in the primaries, too, I think. Any of them your top choice?
The NeverTrump is a bit of a cop out. Maybe even cowardly.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"I never thought I would see this in my country."
"May you live in interesting times."
(ascribed alternately to the Chinese and to the Irish)
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
"The NeverTrump is a bit of a cop out. Maybe even cowardly."
I should be insulted. That wasn't even a good effort. I deserve a better effort than that. That's just cheap shit.
Go back to the start--do not pass GO; do not collect $200 dollars. Try again. Do better.
Lynnette,
They're boarding up businesses because they know the "peaceful protesters" will return with a vengeance if Trump wins.
No one is boarding up anything because of Trump supporters.
Everyone knows that.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo,China
*
Lee C.,
So you don't even have the guts to choose a candidate you'd prefer? What the hell kind of chump are you, Lee? I mean, "c'mon man."
You follow all of this political nonsense nonstop every waking hour of your day and you never even voted in the primary?!
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"No one is boarding up anything because of Trump supporters."
All yours Lynnette. (Might be fun to just watch.)
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China Mon Nov 02, 12:09 am ↑↑
Nope, not good enough. Try again.
One of my favorite quips from a commneter:
Hi, I'm Joe Biden and I forgot this message.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
You're a fucking idiot. I mean, Jeezus. What a damn coward.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Bernie Sanders? I think he was popular, right? I didn't follow any of that, so I'm not sure why he didn't win the primaries.
Because the Democrats, like Amy Klobuchar who dropped out, were intent on steering a more moderate course. They understood that most of the country preferred not to veer too far to the left as a reaction to Trump and the Republican's extreme right wing pandering. That is why the argument that Biden will cave to the far left is a fallacy.
I also heard the name Buttigieg (spelling might be off on that name). Harris might have been in the primaries, too,
I liked both of them.
Gotta run to afternoon classes.
Lee, grow some balls, okay?
Chat later.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"What a damn coward."
That don't work either. Try again. Do better.
"Lee, grow some balls, okay?"
Nope that's just spellin' it different. Try again. Do better.
No one is boarding up anything because of Trump supporters.
They're the people that come packing the long guns. They are the people who are suckered into the QAnon conspiracy theories that caused a supporter to attack a pizza restaurant. They are the people who want poll "watchers' who come with Special Forces training.
They are the people who Trump has told to "stand back and stand by".
Trump's last rally is scheduled for Kenosha, WI.
I'm sure they were all glad to have given their lives for the greater glory of The Donald.
"President Donald Trump's campaign rallies between
June and September may have caused some 30,000
coronavirus infections and more than 700 deaths,
according to a new study by Stanford University
economists."
Politico
And, of course, Trump's campaign rallies have ramped up significantly since the first of September.
"I'm not going to count my election before it is hatched."
I understand. However, Nate Silver's 538 blog now puts Trump's chance of winning at less than 1% as of this morning, apparently on the theory that it's too late for Trump to turn it around now absent an intervening hand of God (And he figures that to be a very low probability event), or the possible death of Joe Biden by sundown (also very low probability).
Silver also gives odds that the Democrats win control of the Senate--three to one favorite on that.
He's figuring probably a 52/48 split in their favor. link
538 blog must have been in the middle of an update when I hit it this morning. It's back to a more reasonable nine to one advantage to Biden in tomorrow's election.
(I found that less than 1% chance didn't settle down with me as the morning wore on, so I checked back again.)
I have some possible good news with regard to Covid.
Hormone Boost Could be Covid-19 Key
The Star Tribune is giving unlimited access to this article.
Trump is already hinting he would like to fire Fauci after the election.
They have started to board up some businesses in Minneapolis. That's really a sad statement of the times.
But on the other hand, I have never seen such interest in voting in any election...ever. That is a good thing!
A federal judge has ruled that the 127,000 ballots caste curbside down in Texas cannot be disallowed. That's encouraging too. Maybe there is still some of the real America left.
"Trump is already hinting he would like to fire Fauci
after the election."
Fauci has repeatedly over the years declined to accept promotions that would bring him into the "political" appointee classification. He's "career civil service" status still. That means Trump can't fire him except for cause (and Trump can't fire him directly in any case, but has to get the head of the CDC to do the firing).
Trump can dismiss him from the Presidential Task Force and pretend that's firing him. But, Trump hasn't been paying attention to the task force for some months now. (Supposedly Pence is the head of that task force and he hasn't made it to a meeting in about six weeks.)
So, if Trump tries to get Fauci fired, then Fauci can get a union lawyer (federal employees' union) and tie it up 'til well after January. (And Trump's gonna have bigger fish to fry in the meantime anyway.)
I've found it curious that Trump would show signs of a late inning rally. It's small; it's not enough, but several polling organizations have claimed that Trump's been rising in the polls over the last few days--up to a week. I found that strange.
There didn't seem to be enough undecided voters to account for a late-stage rally by either candidate. But several polling organizations have nevertheless made the claim to seeing one.
I'm beginning to suspect that what they're seeing is an uncorrected sampling error. A lot of Biden voters have already voted (Biden voters are more apt to vote early than Trump voters). That leaves more Trump supporters in the remaining voter pool. And I've begun to think that's what they're actually finding. Maybe not; maybe I'm just falling prey to "motivated reasoning". I'm not immune either.
But, this is pretty much my last chance to offer the theory as my own analysis of the phenomenon before the professionals get all their data and tell us what it really was, which will come several days down the line I'd reckon--couple of days at least.
“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may
be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for ... but
there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case
of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”
R.A. Heinlein ― Time Enough for Love
Lee C.,
Maybe not; maybe I'm just falling prey to "motivated reasoning". I'm not immune either.
Dang. Someone has hacked into Lee C.'s laptop and has assumed his identity. Do we need to call someone?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
I didn't follow any of the election back in 2016. I was teaching here in China and was too busy and had zero interest in politics (still don't). Anyway, since you guys have been talking about all of this, I was curious what in fact happened back in 2016, so I watched a documentary that focused on the primaries for both parties. I was really surprised by how well Bernie Sanders did. He was a real threat to Clinton. I had no idea. They interviewed some of the Sanders supporters and they had real contempt for Hillary.
There was mention in the documentary that some dirty tricks were used by Clinton's side to attack Sanders. Do you think that's possible? Yes, I know that all's fair in love and war and politics. But you're knowledgeable about politics and I think followed all the events of 2016, so do you think those charges have any grounds?
They also said that the Democratic Party was split into the Corporate Democrats (Hillary) and the Progressive Democrats (Sanders). Is that division still present?
The last time I followed a presidential election was the Gore-Bush contest. I had afternoon classes the next day, so I was able to stay up through most of the night as the confusion increased. They weren't able to call a winner. Later, of course, the hanging chad became the star of the year.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"He was a real threat to Clinton."
In truth he was not a real threat. He was never a real threat. He was a "movement" candidate who had a loyal, but too small, following and who managed to stay in the race with no chance of winning because that loyal but too small following would bankroll his efforts through the internet fundraising organization known as "ActBlue". (And, he had nothing else to do as the Democratic Senate leadership generally ignored him when he was in D.C. being a Senator.)
He never had a shot at the nomination, and that seriously frustrated the radical wing that supported him, and they expressed that frustration in overt hostility towards Hillary Clinton (who was, to be sure, a very poor public candidate, although she seemed to have fairly well developed "insider" political skills when dealing with fellow politicians).
n.b. More politicians have learned that internet fundraising trick that Sanders stumbled blindly into first. And now "ActBlue", and the Republican equivalent, "WinRed", are major political players. (Sanders is still not a major player.) They will, eventually fuel changes in our political parties in addition to, and in concert with, those permanent changes wrought by Donald Trump.
Today in class one of my teachers asked me who I thought would win the US presidential election. I told her i had no idea and that from what I've seen online nobody really knows.
She asked me if I had ever heard of the Yiwu Index. I hadn't, but I know the city of Yiwu pretty well. It's right next to the city where I taught for three years. Yiwu is, I believe, the largest wholesale market in the world. It's massive.
Anyway, she said that the Yiwu Index is a prediction of the US election based on orders coming in for election-related materials -- caps, banners, and such.
Well, I did a quick online search and found this recent article on the Yiwu Index from the NYTimes.
NY Times on Yiwu Index.
Just another measuring tool, I guess.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
Thanks. Yeah, I didn't know any of that, especially those fundraising details. Completely over my head.
Still, I was a bit shocked to learn that Sanders almost took Iowa. Isn't he kind of a socialist? How could a guy like that almost win the primary in Iowa? That makes no sense to me.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Iowa didn't hold a primary. It was (still is) a caucus state where an organized minority can catch a complacent majority candidate sleeping. It's happened several times over the years.
From that NYTimes article:
Yet Trump paraphernalia is still in demand. At a Halloween mask factory outlet, rubbery Trump masks were consistently popular and completely sold out.
The factory created a Biden mask, said Gigi Zhang, the store manager, but nobody had ordered it yet.
Okay, how are we supposed to interpret this?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
Yep, caucus, not primary. Still seems bizarre to me.
My mom used to work the caucus every year for the Democratic party.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee:
”He (Bernie) never had a shot at the nomination, and that seriously frustrated the radical wing that supported him, and they expressed that frustration in overt hostility towards Hillary Clinton (who was, to be sure, a very poor public candidate, although she seemed to have fairly well developed "insider" political skills when dealing with fellow politicians).”
And that’s the thing here. Dem supporters are arguably LESS hyped about Biden than they were for Clinton. Bernie supporters back then could at least say “we’re gonna elect the first female president” which would be counted as a win for many of em. Today? “We’re gonna elect this snoozy and sleepy 78 yo male who’s been in politics half a century” - that doesn’t really seem very inspiring.
And enthusiasm is key here. The Dems need to rally and truly mobilize to defeat the Trump forces who are highly energized. And w Biden... sorry I just can’t see that happening. Trump will win because he was the better candidate, even if he might be should’ve lost on policies.
You’ve essentially got nerevertrumpers against trumpers and that’s just not gonna fly for the never movement. You’ve got no story, no vision, no hope for something better than just kick out the Orange man. Not enough.
"Not enough."
It'll be enough.
Anyway, she said that the Yiwu Index is a prediction of the US election based on orders coming in for election-related materials -- caps, banners, and such.
Trump supporters are the people who need to clothe their homes in Trump banners and signs and trick out their pick-ups with flags and drive around. Other people don't need to prove anything.
Yet Trump paraphernalia is still in demand. At a Halloween mask factory outlet, rubbery Trump masks were consistently popular and completely sold out.
lol! Stocking up on boogeyman masks. The better to scare little, or not so little, kids with.
If you are part of a society that votes, then do so.
Otherwise you may end up in a society that doesn't.
Lynnette,
Do you really think a Trump supporter is that different from you? If so, in what way?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
When the remnants of the Republican Party get up in the morning they'll discover that not much has changed for them politically. FoxNews is still in control of their "messaging" operations (although maybe not for much longer). And FoxNews still doesn't need voting majorities.
The Republican Party wants voting majorities, but they've gotta follow FoxNews; they got no other choice, for now. They blew their last chance to choose another path little over seven years ago. And FoxNews' path has brought them to the rise of the Trumpkins.
So, what's in store for those looking to pick up the pieces of the GOP? Don't know. Looks to me like chaos for the next year or so, at least that long.
In the meantime I think the Murdochs are gonna make the most money by pushing the Biden is corrupt theme across all their platforms (Wall Street Journal, New York Post, FoxNews, etc.). This is not the best thing for Republican politicians; the next election will be about other things (Biden may not even run again--he's hinted that he saw his job as taking out Trump and then stepping aside for new talent). But, it's not like the Republican politicians will get a voice in what FoxNews decides to push. They'll just have to get behind it after FoxNews decides. (And now FoxNews may have already lost the conn to the QAnon crowd. Takes awhile to turn that boat, but we may soon find that the QAnon crowd is now charting the course.)
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
This is as good a time as any for a follow up and reinforcement of Lynnette's earlier comment (Lynnette @ Mon Nov 02, 12:24 am ↑↑) ← That's the reminder; the follow up follows:
"Fueled by allegations of mail-in ballot fraud, shouted from
the president’s Twitter feed and conservative media outlets,
…some militias have begun doomsday prepping for Election
Day.
***
"Some groups — like the Oath Keepers, which recruits from
police and military veterans, and Patriot Front, which recruits
and trains white supremacist extremists — have been frank,
telling their most loyal followers to prepare for war….
***
"And a recent Department of Homeland Security threat
assessment warned white supremacist extremists are the
“most persistent and lethal threat in the homeland.”
***
"“Mostly right-wing media is ignoring right-wing militia
activity entirely,” *** “But they are pushing reports of
potential left-wing violence and covering reports of law
enforcement officers prepping for Election Day violence
without specifying [which] side that it's coming from.”"
Politico
Okay, what are you guys seeing?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
**
I'm home for lunch between classes, so I'm sure what's up with the election returns.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Gah.
So I'm not sure what's up with the election results.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
The Cuban and Venezuelan voters of Miami seemed to have fallen back on their "Caudillo" culture (indifferent to democracy at best and knee-jerk anti-Socialist, and they seem to have bought into the Republican argument that Biden is a Socialist in disguise)
It also appears that neither the Biden campaign nor the public pollsters took sufficient note of their affinity for strongman government. Biden was favored to win there (within the margin of error on most all polls). But Florida don't look good for Biden tonight.
McConnell has gotten back in, unfortunately. It also looks like so has Ilhan Omar.
Okay, what are you guys seeing?
Trump is ahead in most states slightly, but it is still early. The electoral college tally stands at 98 - Biden, 95 - Trump.
The election is very, very close and many states could easily flip either way.
Lee C.,
So was Biden favored to win Miami or Florida (or both)?
While I have time before my afternoon class, I'll see if I can look closely at the county returns from Iowa. The urban-rural divide, like in many states, is the key it seems to figuring it all out. Iowa could easily go either Democrat of Republican.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Both.
Lynnette,
Yep, I agree. I don't think a landslide either way.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
[Jeffrey] Do you really think a Trump supporter is that different from you? If so, in what way?
It really depends on what kind of Trump supporter you are talking about. They seem to run from racist, white supremacists to people who are voting their pocket books.
I don't identify with the white supremacists, but do understand those who are voting based on who they can provide them jobs.
But I think the biggest difference is that I really believe that many Trump voters don't really look too deeply at what the consequences of another 4 years of Trump may mean.
Biden took Illinois, 20 electoral votes and Trump took Missouri - 10 electoral votes.
Biden - 118
Trump - 105
But Texas, Florida looking good for Trump. That will bring up his electoral total.
A lot of the states have not counted the early mail in votes, which may be largely Democratic.
California, Washington & Oregon to Biden. Wyoming to Trump.
Biden - 192
Trump - 108
Something strange going on with the Florida vote tallies. I'm seeing reports that Florida's either 97% or 99% reported in (mail votes as well as in-person election day votes, and Trump has a 3.5% lead, but nobody's been wiling to call Florida as a win for Trump.
Something odd there.
Arizona, 75% of the vote in, Biden leads.
Trump leads in Michigan, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania.
Lynnette,
Yeah, no one wants racists.
I think some conservative voters don't like being accused of being racists for not kneeling before SJWs. And I mean that's true for both Caucasian and African-American conservatives.
To me, the most interesting aspect is the rural-urban divide. In Iowa, 6 urban counties versus 93 rural counties. But what's important is that in every county Team Red and Team Blue members live next to each other (like I've shown you guys in Delaware County).
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
I just looked at the situation in Florida. That is odd.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Sad, very sad, my county is very, very red.
Oh, but Trump is only up by 1% in my county! They should have colored us pink.
Lynnette,
How did your county vote in 2016?
Let me check Delaware County right now.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China.
*
They are saying that more then 1 million mail in ballots have not been counted in Pennsylvania yet.
The majority voted for Trump. This election with almost all of the vote in Trump only leads by 1%. That is very unusual.
Sorry, that last was for Jeffrey in reference to how my county votes.
Real Clear Politics finally called Florida for Trump. The rest of the media will probably follow in short order. I don't know what the hold up might have been.
Lynnette,
Delaware County is 100% reported. 62% Trump, 32% Biden, which are almost the same numbers from 2016. I noticed about a thousand more people voted in the county this year. Good voter turnout.
But the state of Iowa could still go either way. I need to look closer at the numbers in the counties.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lindsey Graham won reelection.
The Senate is now at 42 Democrat, 42 Republican with 16 races to be called.
Probably a good time to go to bed. They are saying it will probably come down to the results in Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Mail in ballots will weigh heavy.
Lynnette,
And I have classes in a bit. I'll have to wait till later to see what's going on.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
One more thing...apparently there are some protests going on in Minneapolis. I don't know what that is about. But some arrests have been made.
Biden is still leading Trump at this time in Minnesota.
I've been staying up and watching the tallies come in. It's lookin' real good for Biden.
So, Trump just came out and declared he's won.
The folks who boarded up their businesses may have been prescient.
Gonna be a tense morning come sunup. Trump ain't done yet.
My guess is the stock market takes a hit in the morning. Not because Biden's winning, but because Trump's indicated he's gonna fight it.
Lee C.,
How do you see Biden getting enough electoral collage votes? I don't see see it at all. Trump has leads in enough states to get to 270 and Biden doesn't. Show me how Biden gets enough.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Right now Biden has 238.
Let's give him Nevada (+6) and Wisconsin (+10), even though both are close.
That's a total of only 254.
It's unlikely he'll get any of the other states, right?
So how do you see Biden getting to 270?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
And no matter what happens the final tally is going to be very close, with one or the other winning.
So my question to you is how did the pollsters get their predictions so wrong again, just like 2016?
Yep, it looks like Nate Silver punk'd everyone again. Talk about free money for shit service.
You've been citing the polls for months and guaranteeing a huge win for Biden. That hasn't happened. Listen, Biden could still win, but if he does, it will be nothing like your predictions right here at Still Healing.
Looks like you need to apologize to Marcus.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"So how do you see Biden getting to 270?"
NBC has the count as Biden 224, Trump at 213. They have it "too early to call" in Maine (4), Pennsylvania (20), Michigan (16), and Arizona (11). That's 55 more votes.*
They have it "too close to call" but Biden ahead in Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). That's 17 more votes.
The difference between "too close" and "too early" is that they think "too early" states are "leaning" towards Biden (on the basis of where the uncounted votes are (mostly mail in votes from suburban and urban areas) and how the counts have been going in those areas of those states to this point in time).
224+55=270. Biden only needs 270 to win. 224+55+16=295. Again, Biden only needs 270 to win.
Biden wouldn't need either Georgia or North Carolina. But, it's the City of Atlanta that's still out in Georgia, and that leans strongly to Biden. That's another 16 electoral votes--maybe. (North Carolina is leaning slightly towards Trump at this stage.)
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
"You've been citing the polls for months and guaranteeing
a huge win for Biden."
Nope, I've been predicting a win for Biden, and hoping for it to be a decisive one. Go back and try to find a quote to back up your baseless assertions there. And you'll not find one. That's because I'm right and you're wrong.
––––––––––––––––––––––––
* Trump probably gets one electoral vote in Maine.
You really think Biden will win both Pennsylvania and Michigan?
I could see Michigan, but not Pennsylvania. What's your angle?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
City of Philadelphia and other urban areas have yet to finish their counts, and there's enough votes there to add up to Biden winning Pennsylvania.
224+55=279 Typo there.
But Trump is up around 500,000 votes. You really think Biden can overcome that?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
I'm just going with what Chuck Todd told us late last night when he was getting too tired to be cautious about what he let out on-air. He thinks there's enough there (or, he did last night). But, if the rest is right and he's wrong about Pennsylvania it still comes up to 275 electoral votes for Biden.
Again, Biden only needs 270 to wing
(Bob Casey, long-time Senator from Pennsylvania, retired now, is on-air as I type this, saying Biden's got Pennsylvania by "at least 100,000 votes"--he's got local number crunchers.)
wing? wing ≈ win
Some (locally Republican) counties in Pennsylvania put off even opening their mail-in ballots until this morning. They announced their intention to do that last week in what was clearly an attempt to allow Trump to claim a win in Pennsylvania before they had to open the mail-in ballots. They're in no hurry to open those ballots today either, putting it off until 10:00 local time--another 12 minutes before they even open those.
Real Clear Politics just called Maine for Biden (3 votes), Trump one (1) vote.
Biden just pulled ahead in Michigan (~10,000 votes) mostly mail-in votes left to count there. Those lean heavily towards Biden. But they're not calling it yet. They want Biden to get out further ahead.
And we should point out that the Republicans have engaged in some massive voter suppression efforts these past four years--successful in some locales--backfired in some others.
Lee C.,
All right. I guess Biden is now president.
Man, pretty strange to have Mr. Magoo as president. Are you really satisfied with Biden at the helm?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
With this Biden win, do you have a prediction on whether protests and riots continue or just stop?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"…protests and riots continue or just stop?"
Kinda depends on whether or not Trump calls for protests and riots. Lotta the right-wingers are just waiting on his call.
––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––
On the bright side… Trump will be thinking hard about a run for the presidency in 2024. That significantly lowers the chances he'll pardon all his chillins and his associates and try to pardon himself. He may start handing out pardons anyway, but it does lower the chances he'll try to pardon himself or his minions.
By the way, Nate Silver's final prediction for the Senate was 51 Democrats (and independents who caucus with the Democrats) to 49 Republicans.
Senate is still up for decision, but the Republicans are making hopeful noises (although they may not be taking into consideration that a black man is likely gonna be in the Georgia runoff election in January and that'll keep the black vote hyper-engaged for the runoff).
Biden's almost 3 million votes ahead in the popular vote. 69,054,843 to 66,343,953 (as of…).
And Trump's back on Twitter and he's not happy.
Looks like its over and Biden will win.
Pennsylvania looks like it could swing despite a Trump lead by 8% at 80% counted. When it was at 73% counted Trump led by 12%. So of the 7%-units counted by then Biden won 5,5 and Trump 1,5. If that trend holds Biden will win it by about 3% in the end.
I am aware it depends on locations counted also but it doesn’t look all that good for Trump purely mathematically.
I will not count an election until all votes are counted. I strongly hope that those who predict Biden are correct.
In my county Trump still came out on top, but by a lesser margin than in 2016. His win margin was only 2% in 2020.
Twitter has covered three Trump tweets with "warnings" already this morning. I think Trump's making a mistake there. He's hinting at a claim that his rightful win was "stolen" by the Corrupt and Evil Merkins, but he's delaying the call for the "liberation" of America, hoping to find a legal finagle that'll serve his purpose and avoid that.
However, the delay will only disappoint his potential liberators and make it less likely they'll answer the call when it comes.
The Associated Press has called Wisconsin for Biden. Trump has promised to demand a recount. He'll have to come up with a $3 million cost deposit because the margin was greater (slightly greater) than ½ percentage point.
Off topic, as it were… (I think the original topic was social media's contribution to partisan violence.)
Today is the day the official waiting period ends and the United States is officially withdrawn from the Paris Climate Accords.
Still no final call for Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania or North Carolina.
There are Trump protesters out calling for a stop to the counting, parroting Trump. I believe in a couple of states, such as Arizona.
Here in Minnesota the protesters from last night are still out. They are basically protesting all of the issues that have been in the news. They want to make sure that whoever is elected doesn't forget. They are currently blocking I-95 and will be arrested.
We have seen warmer than normal temps, so that would explain their enthusiasm.
The Covid-19 situation here in Minnesota is not good. Statewide positivity rate is at 9% with rising cases. Our hospital ICU capacity is currently at 92% filled. Yet we are not quite as bad as the surrounding states. We expect we will catch up eventually.
It's rising across the Midwest generally. I've recently placed clear face shields in large manila envelopes in each of my vehicles, just to have them at the ready in case I take a notion to stop somewhere that's "busy". Up-armored from the N95 masks and hand sanitizers I already carried.
Lee C.,
I've recently placed clear face shields in large manila envelopes in each of my vehicles, just to have them at the ready in case I take a notion to stop somewhere that's "busy". Up-armored from the N95 masks and hand sanitizers I already carried.
That's a perfect portrait of a wimpy Biden voter.
Like I said, grow some balls, Lee.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Here's a funny thought.
If Trump narrows the gap in Arizona, a state that has already been handed to Biden by the media, the moron protesters will have to change their signs to "Don't Count Every Vote."
Transparent Dipshits.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
If you're really lucky you may get to swap for Arizona at the cost of Pennsylvania and Georgia.
If you're really, really lucky it may only cost you Pennsylvania or Georgia.
If you're not lucky, well then you won't get Arizona in swap and you'll be a bit pissed is my guess.
Biden's popular vote lead is now up to ~3,600,000.
Lee C.,
Whoa, whoa. Hold it. I'm hoping for a Biden to win.
I would love to have you and Lynnette be forced to listen to President #NeverTrump's stumbling, bumbling speeches for the next four years.
Go Biden!
I was just laughing at the idiocy of the protesters.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Have you ever actually tried to follow a Trump riff? Or even one of his teleprompter speeches?
––––––––––––––––––––––––
(On the other hand, you don't really think that Biden's gonna make extraneous speeches do you? That's the part of the job he likes least. He's got a speech impediment for gawd's sake. Still, I reckon can get through him doin' a State of the Union once a year.)
Rumor's out that Georgia may come in final today, near mid-day. NewYorkTimes
"I was just laughing at the idiocy of the protesters."
The source of your "idiocy" conclusion is not self-evident. In fact, your apparent assumptions there, in the face of the real facts on the ground, suggest that you're sorta out of the reality-loop, and maybe plugged into one of those siloed internet conspiracy cabals.
This morning's TrumpTweets: "STOP THE COUNT!"
Suggests that Trump's got a better handle on how the count is going than does Jeffrey.
Lee C.,
Like I told you before, I don't follow any politics. I also told you that about a month ago I listened to twenty minutes or so of Trump at a press conference (seemed normal to me, although he was a bit rough with the journalists, which I really liked, because I loathe journalists) and then about a week ago I watched about twenty minutes of Trump at a rally. I thought he was very funny in an aggressive, riffing manner that is very American (to my ear, anyway).
So in four years, I've listened to about forty minutes of Trump speaking. And that was just recently to find out what you and Lynnette were talking about.
I've only listened to maybe ten minutes in total of Biden speaking. I'm sorry. It was torture. But if you guys like his style, that's fine.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
So, never listened to a Trump speech then. I gotta tell ya, it's not at all comforting to see you so intent on pushing a Trumpkin point of view when you're also extremely eager to make the claim that you don't know what the hell you're talkin' 'bout.
(Gotta make one wonder how the hell the Democrats are ever gonna reconcile with your clown cabal. Biden keeps sayin' he's gonna make the effort, but I just don't see it happenin'.)
Post a Comment