The world has been dealing with
Covid-19 for around two months now. We have seen a complete shutdown
in China and shutdowns of varying depths in the rest of the world.
None of us know for sure which response to the crisis will be the
least damaging to our lives long term. We have seen a virus that
takes a toll on the elderly and those with underlying health
conditions. It has struck younger people with complications that can
lead to strokes. It has led to complications in children that
resemble toxic shock. And it has been devastating to economies
around the world.
How do we balance health and jobs?
Both are of critical importance to our well being. Here in the US
our reaction has been haphazard at best, with a White House that is
incapable of leading intelligently. Critical decisions are having to
be made by each state. People are running out of patience even as
they run out of money and food. Long lines form for food giveaways
and people are protesting the lock downs.
So I thought I would post a video I ran
across about Sweden which gives insight into their decision on how
they handled the crisis. It's an interview that was conducted at the
end of April. He makes some very good points. Some of which appear
very prescient. But one thing he says seemed to resonate. It
probably won't make any difference in the end.
Here is a link to a live update of the Covid-19 cases around the world.
Stay safe.
91 comments:
The yearly average for deaths from influenza in the United States is 37,000 people, more or less. Covid-19 has killed upwards of 75,000 in three months.
Kinda got lost in the crush of news over the virus: NewYorkMagazine points out that, after the DoJ filed a dismissal of the case against Michael Flynn, Trump called Putin and, in Trump's words "discussed the hoax" with him.
I can’t understand that Americans put up w this lockdown shit. I am amazed that only we in freaking Sweden are taking this w a sense of reasonability. We are normally a people who accept a degree of heavy handed politics from above and social engineering. But I myself would fucking freak out if they locked me up in my home. I would not accept that.
I would have thought Americans would be even more individualists and ready to take responsibility for themselves and therefore opposing any decrees from up above limiting their freedoms. But apparently no.
Here’s at least one true American that’s left:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=33&v=2lmGruzn4Ks&feature=emb_logo
God bless him!
I have always paid my bills, I have never needed a government handout, I have always worked since the day after I finished school. If someone came to tell me I have to stay cooped up in my home, because of a flu, and rely on welfare, I would tell them to go fuck themselves.
I believed most Americans thought like that. Maybe I was wrong...
"…If someone came to tell me I have to stay cooped up in my
home, because of a flu…"
Okay let's try this again; see if it sinks in a second time.
The seasonal flu kills 36,000 people in the United States per year, on average. (Counting deaths from the flu and also secondary deaths from what the CDC calls "influenza/pneumonia") US-HSS
Covid-19 has killed over 75,000 people in the United States in just three months. (And that is probably a significant undercount; and, of course, the per capita body count in Sweden is significantly higher.)
This is not "a flu" we're dealin' with here.
I can’t understand that Americans put up w this lockdown shit.
In reality our lockdown isn't nearly as draconian as China's. That was one point the fellow in the interview made, a democracy would find if very difficult to duplicate what China did. People really would not go along for long. And, indeed, there are already people who are tired of not being able to go to a restaurant and eat out or get a haircut when they want. But in Minnesota around 75% of businesses are considered "essential" so it is impossible to totally shut down. I still go out to work, as I am considered an essential employee, for now. Most other people at my office are working from home. I do still go out to the grocery store and just yesterday stopped at Home Depot for things for the garden and yard. I wear a mask and try to go at off peak times and keep my distance as much as possible.
But as Lee pointed out this is a more serous virus than the flu. It is very easily transferable from person to person making it far more difficult to prevent those who would be more prone to having an acute case from becoming ill. And creating a treatment for a new virus takes time. We are already seeing odd complications cropping up.
Maybe delaying as much transmission as possible by shutting down bought us enough time to develop some treatments that really do work, such as plasma transfusions or a drug such as remdesivir.
At this point no one really knows.
But meanwhile our economy is rapidly deflating bringing about economic complications from the virus that will last a long time. I suspect that the first wave of crisis is the virus, the second wave is the economic tailspin we are in. I do not want to speculate on what a third wave would entail. Because despite our unusually clear skies climate change still lurks in the background.
For better or for worse, the government's power to enforce a medical quarantine during a medical crisis has been almost unquestioned in "the West" since the Middle Ages, if not before. It's not a new power of government; it's an ancient power. And it's generally been unquestioned that government appropriately has that power. But, that's just "generally".
During every quarantine there's always some folks who think they're special and the government should have no authority to order them to comply with the quarantine. It's always been that way; it happens every time. It is, however, persistently a minority position. (Which is why they bring guns to their protests--to make clear that they don't have to bring a majority around to their point of view--they can bring violence and death instead even as a vastly outnumbered minority.)
By the way, Mike Pence has said that he'd be "happy" to welcome "American patriot" Michael Flynn back into the Trump White House. TheHill
Flaunting their power, getting their digs in and twisting the blades, thrills the dedicated Trumpkins. (These are the folks Petes used to try to tell us we had to somehow appease for the sake of the country.)
Lee:
“This is not "a flu" we're dealin' with here“
Yes it most definitely is. It is a flu caused by a new virus that happens to be of the Corona strain. A respiratory decease caused by a virus is what the flu is, named after the seasonal Influenza.
You have a “novel” flu most every year from other mutations of other flu strains. This is just a bit more potent as it is a strain we’re not used to.. Still just a flu though.
So we’re gonna lock everything down in the future as soon as the flu mutates? This is our new realty?
"It is a flu caused by a new virus that happens to
be of the Corona strain."
The "Corona strain" which you have apparently imagined up as some sort of distinguishing feature between coronavirus and the flu (but probably not imagined without help) is in the viral family that includes "the common cold" but which does not include influenza.
You try to convince the world that the cold and the flu are the same thing, and you get back to me once you've got that accomplished. 'Til then you're just bullshittin' us probably 'cause ya got nothin' better than this bullshit to go with.
And you’re a scaredy-cat cooped up in your home for fear of getting the sniffles.
The real problem here is that Trump's America has chosen to combine the worst possible series of false starts and changes in direction when facing down the new coronavirus and to adopt that as our very own lack of any plan.
After the general stay-at-home, social distancing period that most states adopted, now comes the general re-opening into an environment not much changed from when the shutdown first occurred.
The original idea was that the feds would use the hiatus (now running at about six to eight weeks in most places, depending on the state in which one lives) to develop a testing regimen which would allow individualized isolation of and contact tracing of the infected. And also the feds had the legal power to demand that American companies switch to production of items necessary to support those functions as well as production of the necessary items to fight the plague itself (the much mentioned Defense Production Act).
However, Trump has decided that his administration would sit on its collective ass for eight weeks instead. Trump did a hour long, sometimes two hour long Trump Show every day, but the Trump Show didn't get anything done.
So, now we're coming out of the lock-down not much better off than when we went in, and now we get to go through the wildfire phase of the virus anyway. No significant contact tracing (unless the various states figure out how to manage that on their own), no quarantining of potentially infected persons (because we still don't have FDA approved tests adequate for the job--although they do exist and are in use in other countries).
Post Script:
South Korea and the United States both reported their first known cases of covid-19 within a day of one another. South Korea has averaged ten (10) new cases of covid-19 per day for several days now (actually, I think a couple of weeks is more accurate).
We're running 20,000 new cases per day, average. Our population is six times that of South Korea. So, comparatively, we'd be getting 60 new cases per day, if we were doing as well as South Korea. But, we're getting 20,000 new cases per day instead. 20,000 vs 60; fairly stark comparison there.
Not hard to see that the Trump administration screwed this one up big time.
Not hard to see that the Trump administration screwed this one up big time.
Oh, on so many levels!
So now Covid-19 has been detected in the White House staff. One question, if Trump and Pence, who are both reluctant to even wear masks, actually do develop serious cases and end up in the hospital, who does that leave to run the government? Hmmm....?
"Hmmm....?"
I'm taking that to be a rhetorical question. But, on the offhand chance it is not…
There is no provision (as in the 25th Amendment) for anyone assuming an Acting President role beyond the provision actually in the 25th Amendment, and that applies only to the Veep assuming the role of Acting President if the President is incapacitated. If both were incapacitated we should assume that the various Department heads would just keep on truckin' under the pretense that one or the other was at least nominally still in charge.
I like the Presidenial Succession Act better than the 25th Amendment.
The United States presidential line of succession is the order in which officials of the United States federal government assume the powers and duties of the office of president of the United States if the incumbent president becomes incapacitated, dies, resigns, or is removed from office. The order of succession specifies that the office passes to the vice president; if no vice president is available, the powers and duties pass to the speaker of the House of Representatives, president pro tempore of the Senate, and then Cabinet secretaries, depending on eligibility.
I know, but I can dream.
If I may… You are conflating the "Presidential Line of Succession", which is where you got that quote you used, and which is specified by the Constitution, with the "Presidential Succession Act", which is a different thing entirely. The latter governs what triggers the succession, and in the case of incapacitation, that doesn't actually trigger the succession to Pelosi. (If they both die, yes, that's specified elsewhere as a triggering event. But, in the case of a dual incapacity, no, that's not covered anywhere.)
NYT: Dr. Anthony Fauci intends to open his (teleconferencing) testimony to the Senate Health Education, Labor and Pensions Committee later today with an opening statement conveying a stark warning about the serious consequences awaiting the nation if we open for business too soon. Trump ain't gonna like that.
Trump also ain't gonna like that Dr. Fauci previewed his opening statement to the press, sending a copy of it to the New York Times by e-mail.
(If they both die, yes, that's specified elsewhere as a triggering event. But, in the case of a dual incapacity, no, that's not covered anywhere.)
Yes, well, there is that.
Trump also ain't gonna like that Dr. Fauci previewed his opening statement to the press, sending a copy of it to the New York Times by e-mail.
Trump probably liked very little of what Fauci had to say. And Fauci seems to have been determined to have his say.
And there were apparently those who were quite willing to attack Fauci on Trump's behalf.
I talked to someone who is in the Bahamas and she was saying they have had 94 cases so far with 11 deaths. Their airports are shut down with no one allowed in or out. Everything is closed except for grocery stores and drug stores. Gas stations just opened again recently with shortened hours and anyone caught on the streets on the weekends can be fined $20,000.00.
They do not have the medical system in place to deal with a large number of cases/deaths.
The WashingtonPost suggests that the questioning by the Justices during today's Supreme Court hearings on the Congressional power to subpoena documents from the White House provides hints to the probable disposition of the cases. The Post's writer suggests that the Trumpkin majority is looking for a way to tie the cases up in the lower courts until after the upcoming election (send it back to the lower courts on some procedural issue or another for further hearings), effectively burying the issue until after Trump can get himself reëlected.
"The confidence that we should have in antibody tests
depends on a key factor that is often ignored: the base rate of
the coronavirus. The base rate is the actual amount of
infection in a known population. In the United States, that
appears to be between 5 percent and 15 percent.
"This simple fact is essential to understanding the accuracy of
an antibody test. Yet overlooking this fact is also one of the
most common decision-making errors made, so much so that
it has its own name: the base rate fallacy.
"Here’s an example. If you took an antibody test that was 90
percent accurate, and it determined that you had coronavirus
antibodies, how confident should you be that you actually
have those antibodies?
"Most people say about 90 percent, with the average answer
being above 50 percent. This makes sense. After all, 90
percent accuracy is pretty high.
"But the predictive value of an antibody test with 90 percent
accuracy is 32 percent if the base rate of infection in the
population is 5 percent. Put another way, there is an almost
70 percent probability in that case that the test will falsely
indicate a person has antibodies.
"The reason for this is a simple matter of statistics. The lower
prevalence there is of a trait in a studied population — here,
coronavirus infection — the more likely that a test will return
a false positive. While a more accurate test will help, it can’t
change the statistical reality when the base rate of infection is
very low.
"If this shocks you, you’re not alone. The base rate fallacy is
not only common, it’s also almost universal, even among
those that should know better."
NewYorkTimes
Paul Manafort gets to go home and serve out the remainder of his seven year sentence at home. WaPo Last I heard the so-called "compassionate" release of prisoners on account of the plague was restricted to those who'd served at least 50% of their sentences. But, he's supposedly going under house arrest rather than being cleanly released, so maybe that's what got him the waiver from the traditional rules.
The base rate is the actual amount of
infection in a known population. In the United States, that
appears to be between 5 percent and 15 percent.
So, if our population is 328.2 million than the base infection would be between 16.41 and 49.23 million. If 80% of those cases are considered mild or asymptomatic then 13.13 - 39.39 would be mild. That would leave 3.28 - 9.84 million people with more serious symptoms.
My handy dandy live Covid-19 link says there are or have been 1,417,873 cases in the US up to May 13.
So does that mean we have a long way to go or did I calculate something wrong?
"So does that mean we have a long way to go…?"
Yeah, I think that's precisely what it means.
The case for the lockdown was to “flatten the curve”. Which meant delaying infections so the hospital system wasn’t overwhelmed. A sensible approach.
But the hospital system wasn’t overwhelmed (talking bout the us here) even in the worst hit locations like NY. So why continue the lockdown?
Where and why did it change from “flatten the curve” to “protect everyone from infection by shutting everything down but not actually protecting anyone anyway since we let them congregate at Walmart”?
It’s insane what you’re doing. Can’t you see that? The results of the lockdown will be magnitudes worse than the virus itself..
Karl Manke, keeps fighting for his constitutional freedom to try to just earn a living:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-F3rTcnt7c
The Dem Governor wants to shut him up and shut his 60 yo business down.
"The case for the lockdown was to ‛flatten the curve’… so the
hospital system wasn’t overwhelmed."
That was half of it. Half! You do understand the word "Half", do you not?
The other half was to buy time to allow the build-up of testing capabilities and contact tracing capabilities (the latter required some equipment, but mostly hiring and training people to do the not-terribly-difficult-to-learn work). The testing would tell us who needed their contacts traced and the contact tracing (along with additional testing along the contact chain) would allow us to prevent the "curve" from unflattening itself and bouncing up again.
We got the first half done (no thanks due to the Trump administration). We ain't got the second half done. They squandered the opportunities they had for that.
On the other hand, you've not seen either Lynnette nor myself campaigning to keep the economy locked down past the point of building up the testing and contact tracing necessary to keep the virus from taking off again. What you have seen is the dedicated Trumpkins pretending that everybody who says, "It may be too soon" wants to keep the economy closed down as the sole protective measure.
They don't want to talk about the opportunities the Trump administration has squandered, so they just pretend that part away; they pretend that anybody who's not into throwing the thing wide open immediately is trying to "hurt Trump", or stifle the economy or whatever it is that'll distract Marcus' attention away from the second half of the job, the half the Trump administration didn't get done and doesn't want to hear about now.
Post Script:
In fact, I think it may be too damn late now to worry 'bout the testing and contact tracing stuff; we may have squandered that one away already. The virus may already running loose, beyond our capacity to prevent it from spiking back up. If that's true we can all thank the Trump administration for that, and we can look forward to maybe a half-million dead, maybe more, before it works its way through the population.
There are too many headlines for me to need to cite one of them. The Wisconsin Supreme Court has struck down the Wisconsin Governor's emergency stay-at-home order, apparently based on the naked assertion that the Order cannot last as long as the emergency on account of--on account of they just said so. Near as I can make out this early, that's their only basis for their decision.
I am surprised, and I'm not surprised very often by these things.
It seems nakedly political to me. The state's emergency powers to invoke quarantine in the face of a disease outbreak is an ancient power. The Court's decision to revoke it seems to me to be nakedly political. (That's the part that surprised me--that they don't really care that it seems so blatantly political. I would have expected them to employ a subterfuge of some sort. Like the Supreme Trumpkins' anticipated discovery of some way to demand more work by the lower courts, so they can put off the reckoning about Trump's hidden tax information without admitting to political considerations.)
Just for the record here: I am no dedicated Trumpkin. I did wish for Trump to beat Hillary because she is just simply awful and would IMO likely have got WW3 going. Speculation, I know.
But Trump has been largely a disappointment and he’s a buffoon, always was really. Really the only thing good about the Trump presidency is he’s funny. If you have a sense of humor you sometimes just gotta love the man. And I guess SOME of his economic policies I kinda like, but far from all.
But those “dedicated Trumpkins” hold no sway whatsoever over my thinking.
That said I would probably root for Trump again come November bc the Dems have gone into an insanity tailspin it seems to me. Biden is maybe the most sane among them but come on, the man’s senile already and we’ve seen before what a toll the presidency takes on a person (except for Trump who seems unaffected, probably bc for him it’s like starring in his own soap opera). There really are no good options.
"Biden is…senile already…"
There is scant evidence of that (as in none).
I've read the speculations to that effect; I've read the accusations by his political opponents to that effect. But there is no real evidence that Biden is anything but what Biden's always been.
Posting a Bitchute vid that got severely banned on YouTube:
https://www.bitchute.com/video/NkiM9fo1Ba0h/
These are two doctors from California talking about Clovis. They do make sense. They speak with 20+20 years experience in the medical profession, and cite many colleagues.
Ask yourselves: why is this video banned everywhere on the more common platforms? Why is it harmful or dangerous for you to watch this? Can you not watch it and decide for yourself if it’s reasonable or not?
Lee:
“I've read the speculations to that effect; I've read the accusations by his political opponents to that effect. But there is no real evidence that Biden is anything but what Biden's always been”
Well in any case he’s not very coherent and is quite long in the tooth. Plus the media is in any case removing him now w that sex assault thingy so he won’t even be the nominee most likely. You can bet that. I kinda suspect they’ll toss someone yet not envisioned into the race, maybe Cuomo.
In fact, I think it may be too damn late now to worry 'bout the testing and contact tracing stuff; we may have squandered that one away already.
Yes, I think I agree with this. We really didn't start early enough.
And in all honesty I'm not sure if that will work for anyone now. The virus is global and it will always be around. So even those who have been diligent at locking down, testing, and tracing will still be at risk from infection in the future. They can only avoid it if they ban travelers from outside their countries or require a 14 day quarantine for incoming travelers. At least for the foreseeable future.
They don't want to talk about the opportunities the Trump administration has squandered, so they just pretend that part away; they pretend that anybody who's not into throwing the thing wide open immediately is trying to "hurt Trump", or stifle the economy or whatever it is that'll distract...
Yes, it is the Trump's administration's MO and those who follow Trump mindlessly adhere to it.
"Well in any case he’s not very coherent…"
If I may quote one of Trump's rambles, from one of his rallies; Trump free associating on stage:
"Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and
scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes,
very good genes, okay, very smart, the Wharton School of
Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a
conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, okay, if I ran
as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest
people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re
a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a
number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was
a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a
fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the
time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at
the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would
have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are
(nuclear is powerful; my uncle explained that to me many,
many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he
would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he
was right — who would have thought?), but when you look at
what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be
three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I
would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas
because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the
women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s
gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians
are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so,
and they, they just killed, they just killed us."
I don't think Biden's got a noticeable coherence problem, not compared to that anyway. And Trump does that routinely, and the dedicated Trumpkins cheer wildly and clap and clap for minutes on end. (Or, at least that's how it went 'til the coronavirus put an end to the Trump Traveling Road Shows.)
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
"and is quite long in the tooth."
He's got five years on Trump, only five years, and he is demonstrably in much better physical condition.
Just for the record here: I am no dedicated Trumpkin. I did wish for Trump to beat Hillary because she is just simply awful and would IMO likely have got WW3 going.
I really have to disagree with that. I doubt Hillary could have been worse than Trump. I didn't see WWIII happening at all with a Clinton administration. She was too smart for that. Now Trump on the other hand, I could see stumbling into something like that very easily. We just have to hope that there are others in the world who are smart enough to avoid that.
Because I am thinking that in the coming months and years the world will have to stick together more than we have been. The pandemic will sap resources and play havoc with economic activity and food supply chains. We will need smarter leaders than we have in the White House now.
Well in any case he’s not very coherent and is quite long in the tooth.
The same can be said for Trump.
Biden can still pick a good VP for a backup.
Plus the media is in any case removing him now w that sex assault thingy so he won’t even be the nominee most likely.
As a woman I will disagree with this as well. I will still vote for Biden.
You can bet that. I kinda suspect they’ll toss someone yet not envisioned into the race, maybe Cuomo.
I like Cuomo. I would vote for him if he would run. And that's not just because I'm a never Trump voter.
Lynnette
” As a woman I will disagree with this as well. I will still vote for Biden. ”
Remember that statement and let’s revisit it 4 months from now.
Bc Biden will get cut on them charges, maybe not sexual assault but to have been too handsy and whatnot, and another candidate will be put forth. The thing will be like “as women we cannot vote for Biden, nor should any man who respects women. Of course Trump is even worse but here: this new guy we found is really who you want!”
You’ll see.
Hello gang,
Update from China. Here in Ningbo, all businesses have been open for about a month now. Just in the last week, the students at this university have all returned. Some people wear masks, and some don't. It's up to you. Sometimes at banks and more official places, they'll check your temperature. I would say everything here is back to normal. Restaurants full, shopping malls packed, people enjoying life. I even heard that they'll be opening the cinemas in the next week or so.
So I'm wondering, along with Marcus, what the heck is going on in the US. Why are so many places still locked down? I don't get it. For example, one of my brothers is living in Mendocino County in California. 13 total confirmed cases, no deaths. Why the heck are they locked down? In my home state, Iowa, very few cases and deaths.
Can you guys explain to me what happened to my country, one I've been away from for seven years? Have Americans really become so risk-averse? A vaccine may never be created, right? So why are Americans hiding at home? It's really embarrassing.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Mendocino County, California: On the border with Oregon and the Pacific Ocean; population less than 90,000 as of the last census. Pretty much the very definition of rural California.
I guess what's happening is that you're proposing that the population centers of central California, which were hit early by the virus, should be released from lockdown on account of the virus never made it to Mendocino County. That pretty much describe your position?
As for why so many places are still locked down: The federal guidelines for lifting the lockdowns call for two weeks of decline in the number of new cases. (Whether that is too cautious or not I don't know--not my field--but it is the federal guideline.) Most places that have turned the corner haven't put in the two weeks yet. However, the impassioned calls to lift the lockdowns began as soon as it became clear that the upward trajectory had been blunted. No patience I guess.
Correction to my location of Mendocino County--it's northwest of the Sacramento Valley--about a hundred miles south of the Oregon border, but still fronting the Pacific Ocean.
Lee C.,
The coronavirus has made it to Mendocino Country, which is north of Napa and Sonoma Counties, but it just hasn't done much. So I would say ease up, get back to work and school.
318 total deaths in Iowa, but 87% of those deaths in the 61-100 year range. Hm. I would say let the working-age adults get back to work. Everyone in China is back to work.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
Lee C.,
Ah, got it. Thanks. I hadn't heard about the federal guidelines.
Question. So is it up to the governors and mayors to follow the guidelines or not?
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"So I would say ease up…"
You seem to be saying to ease up everywhere. My point was that not everywhere was as lucky as Mendocino County or rural Iowa. (We've lifted the lockdown here by the way, about 11 days ago. So far the virus hasn't spiked locally again.)
But, I don't think it's necessarily wise for everywhere to ease up just 'cause we're looking clear here, or because Mendocino County was spared the worst of it.
"Question. So is it up to the governors and mayors to
follow the guidelines or not?"
Depends on your view of the seriousness of those protesters carrying assault rifles.
Lee C.,
No, I don't suggest ease up everywhere. Just ease up where there are very few cases. So it sounds like we're on the same page, then.
Here in China, it's very hard to figure out what's really going on in the US. I hear bits and pieces but a lot of it doesn't make any sense, to be honest. For example, I heard about one US university that was already cancelling the fall semester. What the hell. Makes no sense (to me from my seat here in China).
Protestors with rifles? Sounds cool. I'll have to check that out.
Oh, by the way, I know you and Lynnette are going to hate this, but I've watched, for the first time, a few clips of President Trump, ones where he's bashing on China. Oh man, I'm sorry, but I just love it. You have no idea how much I detest the Chinese Communist Party. Anyone who rips them a new one, Democrat or Republican or faux-Republican, is okay in my book. Yes, yes, i know he's probably a disaster as you and Lynnette rage about each day, but please allow me to enjoy him ripping the CCP.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
"…but please allow me to enjoy him ripping the CCP."
Just keep in mind that he puts that theme away just as quickly as he pulls it out to wave around. No consistency on the issue--none. At the moment he's finding it a useful distraction to the lack of any actual federal plan for reopening the economy or for finding the still rare N95 medical masks for hospitals and such to use.
But he can be back to buddyin' it up with his "very good friend" Xi in a New York minute.
Wasn't a six weeks ago Xi was a champion agains the virus according to dogma in Trumpland, but now Trump needs a scapegoat. It goes away as quick as it comes around.
"I heard about one US university that was already cancelling the
fall semester. What the hell. Makes no sense…."
So, what did their fall enrollment picture look like when they canceled the semester? Was it gonna be a money maker for them? Or were they gonna lose money? Or was it too early to tell?
Lee C.,
Understood about Trump's vacillations. The other day, talking to a Chinese friend about Trump going on about his "buddy" and "very good friend" Xi, I explained that in the vernacular it's called "blowing smoke up his ass." She laughed, completely got it.
Sorry, I have no other info on the uni. Just something heard in passing.
Okay, chat later. Back to a new book: Dinny McMahon's China's Great Wall of Debt.
Jeffrey -- Ningbo, China
*
California Universities are the schools that are contemplating closing in classroom classes.
I believe it is a reaction to the caution that Covid-19 will return in the fall and in conjunction with influenza create a more serious crisis.
So is it up to the governors and mayors to follow the guidelines or not?
In all honesty I think it has always been up to the states on how to react. The guidance from the federal government (read Trump) has been haphazard and simply not based on reality or even fact. The CDC is still alright, but I wouldn't base my actions on the advice of Trump.
Just ease up where there are very few cases.
It's interesting you should mention that. Our governor was asked the same question recently. His response was that in areas of Minnesota where we have seen few cases we also have a less robust medical system. Given the speed at which the virus can spread through a susceptible populace he acted on the side of caution in also keeping those areas closed to prevent an overwhelming of the medical services there.
We are currently reopening slowly here, despite the fact that we have not had a decline in cases, as I believe federal guidelines recommend. But we are at a steady rate at the moment.
I've just read (well, skimmed, to be honest; I'm getting bored with them by now) what counts as my fourth essay on the "fury" of the liberal media about Trump's recent maskless appearance at some event or another.
Curiously, all four of the essays have been featured prominently in right-winger leaning publications. I've yet to run across a "furious" headline regarding this issue in what they derisively call "main stream media".
Politico has done a little bit of background checking on Tara Reade, the recent accuser of Joe Biden.
Reade doesn't weather the check well.
This will almost certainly spark further examination of her background. Some of them will, no doubt, be highly partisan, highly weaponized writings; some of them slanted pro-Biden; some of them slanted anti-Biden.
IF Biden is smart enough to stay the hell out of that examination of Reade's background: IF he's smart enough to stick with his original plan; i.e. "I deny the accusation; I didn't do that; it didn't happen; it's now up to you to decide whom you believe--believe me or believe her; can't be both. But I have nothing to say about her personally; I have nothing to say about why she may have said these horrible things about me. That's not my problem."… If he's still got it together enough to stick with that position, then I think he can probably put to rest that question Marcus raised about whether or not he's already senile.
...Trump's recent maskless appearance...
I ran into someone, a former neighbor, who refuses to wear a mask. He didn't really give a good reason why. I just said that I always do now. That I do it not for me, but for him. Meaning everyone else. I doubt I have the virus, I think I already have had it, but I don't know either for sure, so I wear a mask. As far as I am concerned it is like holding the door for an elderly person, simple courtesy.
I can see why Trump doesn't and it isn't because he is concerned about upholding the freedoms of the American people. His other actions make that thought rather laughable.
Jeffrey may approve of Trump's attacking Xi, but it is only done as a convenience to further his election hopes. When it is convenient for him he will change his tune. If Jeffrey is looking for a true opposition voice to the Chinese government he won't find it in Trump. Not for the right reasons, not that will last.
"I ran into someone, a former neighbor, who refuses to
wear a mask."
It appears to me that noticeably more than 50% of the local population is not going masked in public anymore, change from their habits at the height of the curve, two-three weeks ago when almost everybody was wearing them in public. I haven't done an actual count, but I'd reckon it 60%--70% maybe are going about without the masks. Seems to me that mask wearing fell off around the time it came to be seen as a political statement. This being dedicated Trumpkin territory that'd be no less than I might expect.
I ran across the packing material from those masks I had back at the workbench. They're N95s sure 'nuff. I wear one when I go out and about in public, largely on account of so many of the locals do not wear masks and I just happen to have a stockpile of N95s. So, I figure it's protective for me--from them. They can make political statements with masks (or the absence thereof) if they want. I ain't interested in that. I'm keeping an eye on the county-wide new infection rate. When it falls down near'nuff to zero I'll quit wearing the masks. I expect that'll happen just any day now. (Save what's left of them for the second wave.)
I’ve not seen but a few masks yet. Curiously the only ones wearing them seem to be Asians who are pretty few here and only some of them wear masks. It’s not really normal here and many places like restaurants are suffering and nightclubs and the like are shut down. But other than that most people just go about 5heir business. Those who can work from home (quite a few here in Sweden have that option) and the rest go to work as usual.
Yes it’s worse here than in neighboring countries and yes that probably has something to do with us having no lockdown to speak of. But it is also probably a fact that we got more infection into society to begin with. And in any case we’re doing better than several other European countries.
And that’s from an only Covid standpoint. When you factor in all the other detrimental affects of this lockdown in other places you might come to a conclusion we actually did it right. To early to tell, but it has to be considered.
It appears to me that noticeably more than 50% of the local population is not going masked in public anymore,...
I too seem to be seeing a smaller number of people wearing masks. I guess you could refer to my locale as "Trump territory" too, as my county voted for him. We are still rising in number of cases by double digits per day. While we don't rank as highest we are definitely up there. So the lack of masks seems a bit worrying to me, but I can only continue to wear mine.
I see that Biden is leading in the polls, 46% - 43%. I don't really consider that to be a large margin and can't help but wonder what on earth is wrong with some of that 43%. I realize that the far right and the dedicated Trump followers are unshakable, but how many of them are there? Are we saying that 43% of the country is that misguided...or worse, white nationalists?
"Are we saying that 43% of the country is that misguided..."
Yeah, pretty much. The political right-wing is far larger than the political left wing. That's a function of having a right-wing propaganda network openly operating untethered to reality for a little over 40 years now.
"…or worse, white nationalists?"
I think it's unfair to brand them all as white nationalists. However, near all of them are aware that they have fraternize with and appease the white nationalists amongst them to have any chance at all of putting their minority agenda into practice. Lose that 10% and they've no chance at all of getting Trump back into power for another four years. (Wouldn't have gotten him in there the first time either.)
So, I think it's fair to say that they're mostly untroubled about associating with and appeasing white nationalists.
"I realize that the far right and the dedicated Trump
followers are unshakable, but how many of them are there?"
I'd reckon the combination you named at 35 to 38 percent of the voting age population, 'bout half of them what we'd call "far right". The other half more disillusioned than anything else. Their conservative leaders have been lying to them for so many years that they've pretty much given up hoping for better. (It hasn't occurred to them that more liberal political leaders actually don't lie with anything approaching that level of abandon--they think they're all part of "the swamp" 'cause most all of theirs are part of the swamp. (The black swan fallacy in action.) But, there's a reason that working economists self-identify as Democrats over Republicans by a ration of nine to one (45% to 5%--leaving 50% claiming no political party affiliations). The other sciences show a similar skew, pretty much across the board. (There's also a reason that the right-wingers openly despise higher education and "eggheads"; not hard to figure that one out).)
Post Script: The "black swan fallacy" has been so-named for decades before than the recently popularized phrase "black swan event" came into vogue among the pundit class.
I'd reckon the combination you named at 35 to 38 percent of the voting age population, 'bout half of them what we'd call "far right".
Scary, very scary. I don't know which is worse, that such a larger percentage are so clueless or that we might very well get Trump back in for another four years.
It appears he is going to use his ham handed methods on the postal service now. *sigh* They have enough problems without being "trumped" to death.
There is something that this pandemic has shown us that should caution us for the future. That is that China is too involved in what may prove to be critical supplies for the rest of the world. Perhaps Jeffrey's new book is a rather timely read. Because if for some reason China's house of cards should collapse it may well take a lot of other countries with it.
"I don't know which is worse, that such a larger percentage
are so clueless or …"
This may be more scary yet, but it needs to be said. You underestimate them. They aren't clueless, not most of them anyway. For the most part, they know what he is. And they're voting for him anyway. And they show up for his mass rallies and cheer wildly as he struts the stage and smirks and mugs for them.
And he babbles; when he's off the teleprompter he can barely construct a complete sentence, so he babbles, and they cheer. They're cheering for themselves and for their slogans, which he's learned by rote from listening to FoxNews.
This is not "clueless"; this is intentional.
They already know who he is, what he is. President Trump was a fluke, but not an accident.
And if we're going to beat them back this time we need to acknowledge that much just for starters.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
It may mean nothing. It's just one smallish mostly rural county. And it may simply be coincidental. But…
The County Health Department lifted the county-wide stay-at-home Order 14 days ago, and today they've announced an uptick in new cases of covid-19. It went from average one new case a day to six new cases in two days.
May be nothing more than coincidence, but I'll be keeping an eye on it anyway. I was just about to pack my N95s away, savin' 'em for the second wave, but that'll hold for now; now I got something to keep an eye on.
Even so, the IMHE projections for total deaths by August 1st has fallen a bit last couple of days, so "coincidence" is probably the currently favored explanation.
We have some 40,000 National Guard members who are currently serving under Trump's late-March Emergency Order calling them up. They're under the command of their own state governors, but they were called up under Trump's Emergency FEMA Order. That means they'll be eligible for federal benefits by June the 25th (90 days). Specifically, they'll rack up time towards their eligibility for retirement if they're called up for 90 days or longer. The White House is preparing to close out their deployments on June the 24th (the 89th day), to make sure they don't qualify for any bump on their federal retirement benefits. Politico
(Personally, I think it'd make more sense to end their deployments when we don't need them anymore, but that's not how the Trump White House views things.)
The County Health Department lifted the county-wide stay-at-home Order 14 days ago, and today they've announced an uptick in new cases of covid-19.
Everyone is ranking Minnesota as "steady", but we increased by upper double digits over the last 2 days in my county.
There are a lot of people who don't really take it seriously here.
This is not "clueless"; this is intentional.
They already know who he is, what he is. President Trump was a fluke, but not an accident.
And if we're going to beat them back this time we need to acknowledge that much just for starters.
If that is the case then it begs the question of why do they support him despite everything? Is it racial animosity, poor economic recovery after the last recession, spite, or just plain ignorance of how our government works so they don't understand the damage he, and they, are really doing to the country?
If we can know that we might be able to find some way of pealing away some of his support.
The animosity between Trump and Obama has escalated to the point where Trump isn't even going to have an official portrait unveiling at the White House for Obama. Can't tell you how sick of Trump I am.
"If we can know that we might be able to find some way of
pealing away some of his support."
Outright malice and spitefulness play a larger role than most pundits wish to acknowledge. (Probably because they wish to hold on to the false hope for "peeling away some of Trump's support". Ain't gonna happen, not for the dedicated Trumpkins anyway--talkin' here 'bout that 35%-38%.)
Trump has informed us that he has been taking hydroxychloroquine for the past week or so. My first thought was that he has gotten even crazier. I don't think I'll say my second.
I think it's important that he be around (preferably in good health) to lose the upcoming election and (hopefully) take down the Republican Senate majority with him.
I've been calling this one pretty much inevitable: WashingtonPost:
"May 20, 2020 at 4:16 PM EDT
"WASHINGTON — The Supreme Court on Wednesday
temporarily prevented the House of Representatives from
obtaining secret grand jury testimony from special counsel
Robert Mueller’s Russia investigation.
"The court’s order keeps previously undisclosed details from
the investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 election
out of the hands of Democratic lawmakers at least until early
summer. The court will decide then whether to extend its
hold."
We should remember that the Supreme Court allowed House discovery of information against President Richard Nixon by a unanimous 9-0 vote when Nixon claimed Presidental immunity. They later disallowed Bill Clinton's Presidential immunity" argument in Clinton vs Jones (that would be Paula Jones) also by a unanimous 9-0 vote. Now, for fairly obvious and starkly political reasons, they seem ready to re-visit those previously uncontested decisions.
This will put off revelation of the sought material until after the 2020 election, and that's fairly obviously the purpose and intent of the Supreme Trumpkins who now have majority voting control of our nation's highest court.
"The animosity between Trump and Obama has escalated…"
But, curiously enough, AG William Barr went out of his way last couple of days to announce that there'd be no investigation of Obama (nor of Biden himself).
Barr did mention in passing that there might be continuing investigations of unnamed "others" from the Obama administration.
I believe this means that Barr already knows that his hand-picked surreptitious prosecutor for Obama (and Biden), former U.S. Attorney for Connecticut, John Durham, has come up empty, and so they're going to have to expand the "investigation" to keep it going during the upcoming election season.
Trump not only has the Supreme Court covering for him, he's also got Attorney General William Barr working the refs for him (and Barr's moves are way ahead of any plans that Trump could hatch on his own).
I think it's important that he be around (preferably in good health) to lose the upcoming election and (hopefully) take down the Republican Senate majority with him.
Yes, that would be the best outcome. That would be the only good thing to come out of the pandemic.
Trump decided to flout the local (Michigan state) emergency orders and the company's published guidelines today when he refused to wear a mask during his tour of the Ford Motor plant in Ypsilanti, Michigan. His post-visit statement made clear that he refused to be masked as a public gesture of defiance.
Were it my decision to make (and thankfully it's not) I'd be issuing a summons to court on a misdemeanor criminal charge against one Donald J. Trump. I wouldn't bother with issuing an arrest warrant at this juncture. That'd never be honored by the federal courts, so there's no reason to bother with it. But, the minor criminal charge probably ought to be filed anyway, just as a matter of principle.
Tara Reade, who has accused Joe Biden of sexually assaulting her in 1993, was rather suddenly and unceremoniously dropped as a client this morning by her "Trump friendly" attorney, Doug Wigdor, who specializes in representing sexual assault clients. DailyBeast
But, the minor criminal charge probably ought to be filed anyway, just as a matter of principle.
Yeah, but knowing Trump he'd threaten to cut off funding for the state. It's his MO.
I was talking to my neighbor today and she is also not a fan of Trump in any way. What's odd, though, is that her husband is. He doesn't necessarily like him as a person, but he likes him as president. She can't figure out why. But I've always though him a rather odd duck, so it didn't surprise me much.
Dropped into a Walmart grocery store today. This time I did take an actual count (started a count anyway--by the time I'd gotten to my second aisle I decided the survey was complete). Upwards of 87% of people were going without a mask--seven out of eight (not including Walmart employees).
By the time I got home I found out that the County Health Department had held a press conference this afternoon and was saying that if folks don't straighten up they'll soon be considering reimposing tighter quarantine rules. But that ain't gonna happen; not 'round here anyway. Ignoring the danger has now become a political statement among the dedicated Trumpkins, and they ain't gonna put up with any science contrary to their Dear Leader. The folks at the County Health Department seem to think that because they were able to do it once, they'll be able to do it again, but that ain't gonna happen.
So, I'm still looking on the internet for some valved N95 masks I can my lay hands on at a fair price. Ain't noticed any yet.
Between getting stuff for the garden, groceries and trying to find the right filter for my humidifier I have been to far too many stores this weekend. Except for Menards, which requires masks, everywhere else it did seem that there were far too many people not wearing masks. I can't say the percentage but it was probably close to yours. My county is Trumpkin territory too. I don't know if that was the reason or if they felt the easing of restrictions in Minnesota meant no masks.
Hmmm...I'm listening to the national news and Minnesota received a mention as now having rising case numbers. I can say that my county has increasing numbers. Certainly not a situation where we should be leaving off masks.
"Certainly not a situation where we should be leaving off masks."
It would seem the opportunity to stick it to those "other" Americans trumps any need to protect the at-risk population.
Covid-19 is truly bi-partisan. Something they may learn at their own cost.
Same thing with places of worship. Covid-19 is non-denominational. Something all of those people intent on reopening may find to their regret as well. And don't tell me they think God will protect them. They have no clue as to what he/she really thinks or wants. He/she may be putting a test out there and so far we may be failing. We are showing that self-sacrifice isn't our strong suit.
Btw, as some have pointed out, there was a true terror attack by AQ on our soil recently. Something Trump has been distracting a lot of people from. Granted, it wasn't as successful as it could have been. Due mostly to the quick action of one sailor who stopped the attacker at the gate allowing her mates to neutralize him. But it did happen and it means it may happen again.
"Covid-19 is truly bi-partisan…/…non-denominational."
I've been reading a little on the viral transmission routes, and the CDC has publicized some new findings as well.
It appears the virus is not much transmissible through surface contacts, so the recent run on cleaners, gloves, and especially hand sanitizers was probably largely unnecessary (this after I got separate bottles of hand sanitizer to stash in all of my vehicles).
The virus also does not appear to be highly airborne (taking to the air without wet micro-droplets to ride.) So, its range is largely limited to spittle distances, and the so the "social distancing" guidance would seem to still apply and masks (and face shields) would still seem like a good idea for the "at-risk" population, especially while they're exposed to strangers and to crowds. (If the dedicated Trumpkins are gonna go bare faced it might be a good idea for the rest of us to stock up on the more effective N95 masks, and those might, stress "might", be easier to lay hands on in the future if the Trumpkins don't want any.)
Singing in church has already proven to be a "superspreader" event in at least one instance, and may prove unhealthy once again.
"Something Trump has been distracting a lot of people from."
I suspect Trump is the one who's been distracted from that. Ordinarily that'd be catnip for him, another chance to rag on Muslims, but he's been desperate to get golfing again and seemingly didn't have energy to spare to that one.
I've begun to believe that the Trump administration intends to announce the existence of an "effective" vaccine against the covid-19 coronavirus by time the November elections come around.
The trick is to define the term "effective" to mean whatever the hell it is they happen to latch onto. It doesn't have to actually work against the real world virus to be "effective", not for these guys it don't. It won't have to protect against, or even mitigate, the disease. It'll be considered "effective" if they can promote it extensively on FoxNews, before the election. (And if it only exists in that home of alternate realities, that'll still be adequate for the Trump administration. Little details like actually producing and distributing their supposedly "effective" vaccine could conceivably get in the way of promoting their alternate reality anyway.)
Well, if the economy is still on life support in November he will have to come up with something.
Still disturbing to me that the headline in my paper this morning said that Biden holds edge over Trump. At this point it should be a chasm.
Trump's following will drop away rapidly after he loses in November. It's his ability to win the office and screw up the country that attracts his following. They don't have any ideological attachments to him, because he has no discernible ideology for them to become attached to. But, he can't screw over America if he doesn't win, and that's what he's got that keeps them excited. He wins and he screws the rest of the country over. That's all there is.
So, they'll fall away fast soon as he is no longer able to screw over the "rest of the country", the "not real Americans" (as they see it). His fans will then drop down to 'round 20% or so, maybe less, when that happens.
Post a Comment