It's a rainy day here again. So what
better time for exploring the past? Recently I heard in the news
that they have discovered a planet orbiting Proxima Centauri. A planet that has the
potential to sustain life.
It seems we have always been fascinated
with what exists up there in that space beyond our reach. Are there
other worlds that will sustain life? Are there others out there?
Back in 1938 Orson Welles created a
radio show that was so real that if you tuned in after the beginning
credits you might have thought it real. And many did. It created
quite a panic in places.
In 1965 a popular TV show of the time
revolved around the journey of a family, and various crew members, to
explore the outer regions of space, for the most part
unintentionally. Hmm...I couldn't get a link to the full first episode, but if you want to see all of it you can zip over to You Tube. They have it there.
And there might actually be people out
there who remember the movie ET and one of its more iconic scenes. A
far more warm and fuzzy rendering of alien life than in War of the
Worlds.
They've found other planets before that
had the potential for life but which turned out to be a false start.
But in the meantime it is fun and maybe, if the future of climate
change proves to be as dark as some suggest, critical to imagine what
could be another world for human life.
So if you have a rainy afternoon to
fill, and want a break from current events, check out our imaginings
from the past, and maybe the future? :)
108 comments:
"I heard in the news that they have discovered a planet orbiting
Proxima Centauri. A planet that has the potential to sustain life."
I'm given to understand that Proxima Centauri b is ‘tidally locked’ to the brown dwarf star it orbits. (Meaning that, like our own moon, the rotation period is the same as the orbit period so it always points the same side to its own ‘sun’ and would have one side permanently lit and one side permanently dark) That's not exactly ‘earthlike’ and kinda cuts down on the likelihood that it'll carry life as we know it.
I did notice that some of the suggestions of what the planet may look like do not include plant life. But if there is water then there could possibly be some kind of life. Even in the darkest reaches of the ocean where no light penetrates there are creatures that survive. As for humans, perhaps not life as we know it, no, but if desperate enough perhaps life re-constructed in some format. But, anyway, I wasn't seriously suggesting that we could fly there and find a new home if Earth becomes untenable. I somehow think it would be too lake for that by the time people realized it would be necessary.
I also noticed that, in a break from the fictional Star Trek nomenclature, the planetary designation is made by letter instead of by number. I.e. Proxima Centauri b indicating the second planet out from the star. I'd always thought Gene Roddenbury was supposed to be scrupulous ‘bout that sort of thing.
[Lee C]: "I'm given to understand that Proxima Centauri b is ‘tidally locked’ to the brown dwarf star it orbits."
The star is a red dwarf, an M type dwarf to be exact. Brown dwarfs are short lived proto-stars that never make it past the deuterium burning phase. Proxima Centauri will long outlast the Sun, by a factor of many hundreds in fact, and will burn for trillions of years.
[Lee C]: "I also noticed that, in a break from the fictional Star Trek nomenclature, the planetary designation is made by letter instead of by number. I.e. Proxima Centauri b indicating the second planet out from the star."
Actually, the b oddly designates the first planet out from the star. Although rarely used, the a is reserved for the star itself. The lowercase letters for exoplanets are not to be confused with the uppercase letters which are used for designating members of a binary (or multiple) star. So, for instance, Proxima Centauri is a companion of the Alpha Centauri A and Alpha Centauri B visual binary star system. And, of course, Alpha Centauri itself is an unconventional way of writing the Bayer designation of a star, consisting of a lowercase Greek letter and a constellation name, usually ranking stars within a constellation by brightness. Thus α Centauri (both A and B components together) is the brightest star in the constellation of Centaurus. If Proxima Centauri was bright enough to be visible to the naked eye as a component of a ternary star along with the other two, then the new planet would have the wonderfully confusing name of α Centauri C b.
[Lynnette]: "They've found other planets before that had the potential for life but which turned out to be a false start."
I heard the guy in the video say that alright, but I'm not sure what he was getting at. The bottom line is we don't know which planets have the potential for life. So far we can only categorize them by size, density, and distance from the parent star. With appropriate parameters this gives them the right kind of gravity, and puts them in the Goldilocks zone where liquid water can exist. But we'd also love to know about their atmospheric composition. For transiting exoplanets (the ones that pass in front of their star from our perspective) a soon-to-emerge next generation of telescopes will be able to analyse starlight as it passes through the planet's atmosphere to figure out the composition. With Proxima Centauri b we don't yet know if there will be planetary transits.
Proxima Centauri b also has other challenges like being potentially tidally locked, and also getting zapped by X-rays. A few sources mention X-rays and or flares, but don't give much explanation, so I wrote an article about that over here.
I heard the guy in the video say that alright, but I'm not sure what he was getting at.
I took it to mean he was referring to human life.
But we'd also love to know about their atmospheric composition.
Yes, I would think that having an atmosphere made up of enough oxygen for human life would also be critical. :)
I note your reference to upper and lower case letter definitions. The guy in the video, or at least whoever put up that title, wasn't so particular. So perhaps his other research isn't as well. But at least it was a nice generally informative video that a layman like me could understand.
I see they have also discovered another galaxy. Another piece of the puzzle.
This traps the magnetic field much more effectively and results in higher magnetic energy released in flares at the surface, and a higher X-ray flux. That's why cooler stars don't necessarily have a more benign environment for planets in their Goldilocks zone.
For humans. But that doesn't necessarily mean there is no life out there that cannot tolerate this type of atmosphere. It's just something we haven't come across. Although we have had fun imagining. :)
But, no, if we were actually looking for an escape route from an Earth that has become uninhabitable, then this type of planet would not be suitable for us. Unless, like on Mars, we could build some kind of shelter to withstand whatever atmospheric quirks exist. That doesn't sound very desirable, though.
"The guy in the video, or at least whoever put up that title, wasn't so particular."
"Currently, according to the IAU, there is no agreed system for
designating exoplanets (planets orbiting other stars)."
Wiki (Which does not keep Petes from pontificating on the subject as if there were.)
[Chumpy]: "Currently, according to the IAU, there is no agreed system for designating exoplanets (planets orbiting other stars). (Which does not keep Petes from pontificating on the subject as if there were.)"
Was wonderin' how long y'all could keep from bein' a bad-tempered cuss. (Well, actually I wasn't ;-)
Yer Wiki reference is wrong. There is no agreed system for naming exoplanets since the IAU does not have a monopoly on naming the host stars. However, the scientific designation of an exoplanet consists of the name followed by a lowercase letter. That bit is agreed, Chumpy. Wikipedia has made the wrong distinction between the name and the designation. On the other hand, the letter designates the discovery order of the planet, not the orbital order. So if y'all are still petty enough to swap scientific wonderment for findin' a chink in the armour of The Great and Wonderful PeteS™, go right ahead bozo. Y'all will also no doubt want to Jesuitically nitpick over the meaning of "almost" in this IAU text:
"We'll now address the second letter element appearing in exoplanet scientific designations. Unlike the proper noun, the letter term applies universally in almost all nomenclature styles. The letter indicates the order of the planet's discovery around its host star. The first exoplanet discovered in another solar system is designated b; the second, c; the third d; and so on. The letter does not indicate the planet’s orbital placement around its host star, so Exoplanet-c can be closer to, or farther away from, the star that it co-orbits with Exoplanet-b."
See ya Chumpy.
"That bit is agreed."
So says The Great and Wonderful PeteS¹; however the agreement of the IAU is not actually indicated. I could look up the time and date when it was agreed that Pluto was not a planet². I rather doubt that You can find the time and date when supposedly ‘that bit [was] agreed’ upon.
――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――――
¹ Tradmark fraudulently indicated.
² 24 August 2006
"I rather doubt that You can find the time and date…"
And, just to be fully clear on this point; the reason you'll never find it is because it doesn't exist. Never happened. You're just wrong.
Hmmm...Fareed Zakaria is doing a show on guns and gun control. He has been looking at how gun control is handled in other countries, such as Switzerland (where just about everyone owns a gun) and Australia (where many people opposed any control, just like here). Both have succeeded in limiting gun violence with strict gun control laws, yet still allow people to own guns. People who were interviewed in both countries were horrified at our gun violence.
One point he is making is that controlling guns will not just limit mass shootings, but also have an effect on suicide rates. This was found to be the case in Australia and Israel.
If you can't view that program, Lee, I will try to remember to check to see if it will be make available on YouTube and leave a link. It may take awhile, but it's a good program. I may have to do that in the comments section, as some don't allow links in a blog post.
"If you can't view that program…"
I believe that's cable only (or sat).
Yeah.
He interviewed Warren Burger. Burger said he was once asked his opinion on a five day waiting period for someone who wanted to buy a gun. Burger replied that he was opposed, it should be thirty days.
Warren Burger on the second amendment.
After Australia enacted stricter gun control laws, the homicide rate dropped 55% and the suicide rate dropped 65%. There is little opposition to the stricter laws now.
Screw all this bickering. Can we go there and live, or can't we?
Can't.
"You're just wrong."
Again.
Speaking of living on another planet. NASA's Hawaii dome experiment just ended. The six people who lived in isolation for a year in an effort to mimic what it would be like to live on Mars are now "back on Earth".
Years with no nation, 90 days to become a Minnesotan
Katia Iverson and Abdirahman Abdullahi have 90 days together.
For Katia, the case manager, that’s the time she gets to usher newly arrived refugees into life in Minnesota. For Abdi, a father of five who landed here this spring, those days whirl by after years in the languid limbo of an Ethiopian refugee camp.
“What if we’re not ready in three months?” Abdi asks Katia. “Will you just leave us alone?”
“What if we’re not ready in three months?”
Send ‘em to Sweden?
Rumor is the Republicans are already plotting a reprise of their anti-Obama strategy (oppose Obama on all things, all the time) against Hillary, starting her first day. Politico.com
There are folks who don't believe that Viktor Orbán is a great leader, more like a dispenser of spoils who's just riding the wave as Hungary crashes back into third world status again.
"[Viktor] Orbán became a successful leader by constructing a
patronage network — in part by using EU funding — that guarantees
strong support within his own party and parts of the business
community. He knows the fears of a society in transition and is very
effective at tailoring his rhetoric and policies to match these
insecurities. By appealing to voters on issues like migration, he has
deflected attention from rampant corruption and inequality."
Politico.EU
“If she wins, her four years will look a lot like the last six years of Obama,” said one influential House Republican staffer. “She’s talking about things the president couldn’t get done; why does she think she will have more luck?”
Louder. Keep talking, only say it louder. Maybe this time around the American voters will understand that they really need to vote carefully. They need to understand that many in the Republican party are looking at their time in office as acting as road blocks rather than building blocks. This is the attitude taken by many politicians, Republicans and Democrats, that has gotten us into the mess we are in now, major gridlock.
If we really want significant change it will take having one party control the Legislative and the Executive branches of government. And this time around it would have to be the Democrats, unless you really want a party in power who would field a candidate like Donald Trump.
So vote carefully.
"If we really want significant change it will take having one party control
the Legislative and the Executive branches of government."
For the immediate future, that may be true. In the longer run it'd help a lot if the gerrymandering of congressional districts were discontinued. There are several remedies proposed for that, but that's a longer run cure no matter which of the several proposed remedies one might support.
A better solution would be for people to realize that we are one country and we should be able to compromise and put the good of all before the good of the few.
There have been a couple of studies done which bring back results showing that ‘the people’ are rather less polarized than are the politicians. It's just that the pols in Congress are, in general and by a wide margin, more in fear of getting primaried by someone more radical from their own party than they are of losing in the general election. This is especially true for the Republicans, but it is gradually becoming true of the Democrats as well, as they become radicalized in response to the Republican Party's capture by their particular right-winger lunatic fringe.
[Chumpy]: So says The Great and Wonderful PeteS; however the agreement of the IAU is not actually indicated. I could look up the time and date when it was agreed that Pluto was not a planet. I rather doubt that You can find the time and date when supposedly ‘that bit [was] agreed’ upon."
LOL. You really are fond of setting yerself up for a kicking. I suppose it has the advantage of diverting attention from even more cringey stuff like you not knowing what a brown dwarf is. But to be honest, hiding yer iggerance of one thing behind yer iggerance of another makes ya look both iggerant and arrogant.
Anyway, to dispatch this one -- "that bit" refers to the adoption of the lowercase letter designation for exoplanets, and the date yer lookin' for is August 2000, the XXIVth General Assembly of the IAU in Manchester, UK where they provisionally adopted the Washington Multiplicity Catalog.
Yore welcome. And no, I won't be entertainin' yer predictable whinge about how it's "only provisional".
A signal from another civilization?
Astronomers engaged in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) are training their instruments on a star around 94 light years from Earth after a very strong signal was detected by a Russian telescope.
An international team of researchers is now examining the radio signal and its star, HD 164595 -- described in a paper by Italian astronomer Claudio Maccone and others as a "strong candidate for SETI" -- in the hopes of determining its origin.
"The signal from HD 164595 is intriguing, because it comes from the vicinity of a sun-like star, and if it's artificial, its strength is great enough that it was clearly made by a civilization with capabilities beyond those of humankind," astronomer Douglas Vakoch, president of METI International, which searches for life beyond Earth, tells CNN.
The "Washington Multiplicity Catalog" refers to one of four methods of categorizing elements of "multi-star" systems. It does not address exoplanets in general and certainly does not cover single star exoplanets (Which Proxima Centurai b is not, but which does matter.) Wiki
And, what you call a ‘provisional’ adoption is a rather bigger problem for you than you want to admit. The problem does not go away merely because you dismiss it. There was no ‘adoption’ by the IAU, provisional or otherwise, the system was merely recommended to the IAU by a subcommittee. (I believe they call them "working groups".) It has been proposed; it has yet to be adopted.
Try again.
It's just that the pols in Congress are, in general and by a wide margin, more in fear of getting primaried by someone more radical from their own party than they are of losing in the general election.
Maybe we need to work harder to get out the vote in the primary. If more people of a moderate bent were to vote then it might tamp down some of the extremists.
Post Script:
(Just makin’ stuff up don't work with me; might work with Marcus, who doesn't actually care anyway, but it don't work with me. Try again; try to do better next time.)
It sounds like Daesh has lost their spokesman. They seem a little upset.
"Maybe we need to work harder to get out the vote in the primary."
That would work if the part about getting people out to vote in the primary actually worked. But, it won't. First part depends on the second part, and the second part ain't gonna work.
Fixing the gerrymander problem will work.
"…it has yet to be adopted."
And, after 16 years, there's damn good reason to believe it'll never be adopted; too much resistance by the IAU membership. Otherwise they'd have scheduled a vote on it by now.
"What Happens If E.T. Phones Us?" ― FiveThirtyEight.Com
Although, it looks like that that radio signal's another bust National Geographic
[Chump]: "The "Washington Multiplicity Catalog" refers to one of four methods of categorizing elements of "multi-star" systems. It does not address exoplanets in general and certainly does not cover single star exoplanets (Which Proxima Centurai b is not, but which does matter.)"
It might matter if the IAU were adopting anything other than the lowercase letter designation of planets from it. If you remember, that's where your whole pointless argument started.
[Chump]: "And, what you call a ‘provisional’ adoption is a rather bigger problem for you than you want to admit. The problem does not go away merely because you dismiss it. There was no ‘adoption’ by the IAU, provisional or otherwise, the system was merely recommended to the IAU by a subcommittee. (I believe they call them "working groups".) It has been proposed; it has yet to be adopted."
Nope. It's the system they actually use, therefore it's been adopted. What you mean is it hasn't been formally ratified by some nitpicking bureaucracy beloved of you Jesuitical types. You may have noticed that the IAU working groups are composed of actual working astronomers with better things to do than rubberstamp policies that have already been working for a decade and a half. I doubt it employs rubberstampers, but hey, if it does you should definitely apply. Y'all could tie them up for decades!!! Could be yer life's major achievement.
[Chump]: "Try again."
LOL. You can get me exercised about blatant obstinate ignorance in maths. I might even be prepared to argue about whether a brown dwarf was a star other than in its deuterium burning phase. But about the use of lowercase letters in exoplanet designations ... y'all will just have to wear the dunce's hat on that one all on yer own.
"It's the system they actually use, therefore it's been adopted."
I would correct your confusion there if it mattered; it does not. Poor fellow that you are, you have forgotten yourself. Let me help.
""That bit is agreed."
Petes @ Sun Aug 28, 05:59:00 am (emphasis yours)
It has not been agreed; it has not even been submitted to the floor for a vote. Nor does it appear likely that it will be submitted in the foreseeable future.
You can try to find all the other arguments you keep trying to find. E.G.:
"Y'all will also no doubt want to Jesuitically nitpick over the meaning
of ‘almost’ in this IAU text:"
Petes @ Sun Aug 28, 05:59:00 am (I'm sure you wish I would be
distracted into that fuss; but I shall pass it by.)
"And no, I won't be entertainin' yer predictable whinge about how
it's ‘only provisional’."
Petes @ Tue Aug 30, 02:48:00 pm (you made the point for me;
why should I bother to belabor it?)
"…you not knowing what a brown dwarf is."
Petes @ Tue Aug 30, 02:48:00 pm (Nope, not gonna bite on that
one either.)
I ain't fallin’ for it. That convention has not been agreed upon by the IAU; it has not even been submitted for a vote. It's likely to not be, and eventually the beauraucrats will recognize they'll have to come up with something better. ‘Til then, we have the explanation for Lynnette's observation that ‘The guy in the video, or at least whoever put up that title, wasn't so particular.’ (Lynnette @ Sun Aug 28, 12:00:00 am) Bluster all ya want; it's never been ‘agreed’ upon; it probably never will be.
You're just wrong; again. And on one of your supposedly special subjects too. You're no better at this than you were with your mighty magical mystery maths that never existed either. You might as well give it up. You got your ass handed to ya by a hillbilly here, and you're never gonna recover from that, and we both know it. (Doesn't matter what Marcus thinks; he ain't following close enough to know, and all he really knows is he wishes you'd just win one finally, and yet you never do. What the hell's wrong with you boy; why can't you win one?)
Post Script:
It has not gone unnoticed here that you've apparently been taking lessons in dissembling from our own Donald Trump. Your adoption of the practice of simply ‘upping the ante’ on your fabrications is a fairly classic Trumpian tactic. You been watchin’ him close have ya? Learnin’ much there?
Speaking of Donald Trump (Lynnette will likely find this more interesting than watching more of your mad scrambling)…. Trump is supposedly gonna give a real teleprompter speech from Arizona today, well--tonight, clearing up his recently confusing multiple positions on illegal immigration across our southern borders and the resulting immigrants therefrom. Politico.Com However, he's just today managed a last-minute scheduled meeting, in Mexico, with the Mexican President, Enrique Peña Nieto, in the afternoon, and will return to Arizona for his previously scheduled speech. politico.com
This day has political possibilities attached to it.
[Chump]: " It's likely to not be, and eventually the beauraucrats will recognize they'll have to come up with something better."
LOL. Thanks for the insider information. So they already gave you that rubberstampin' job and you are installed as their chief nitpickin' "beauraucrat" (sic) ?
Congrats on finally reachin' the peak of yer Jesuitical casuistry like the black-cloaked clerics of old. Henceforth I shall refer to y'all as Cardinal Rubberstampi.
Back in the real world, lemme know when you've renamed all those thousands of Kepler planets ;-)
Always a ‘tell’ on you, you start gloating over finding spelling errors. From that, we know that you know you're toasted. (Don't ever play poker for money, fat boy.) I was wondering if we were there yet, if you'd try to restore your ego on that one, or if you'd let it pass.
Our neighbors south of the border have heard the word overnight that Trump is coming. It appears that some of them would just as soon he did not. Politico.Com My guess is he won't be coming back with a down payment on that wall in his pocket.
Lee: "There are folks who don't believe that Viktor Orbán is a great leader, more like a dispenser of spoils who's just riding the wave as Hungary crashes back into third world status again."
And they are WRONG. Hungary is doing better than ever (postt Soviet times) and will hopefully continue to do so. An arabization of Hungary, which Orban opposes, would be a bad and sad thing indeed.
You probably side with the Soros line, where Europe most urgently needs to become more "multicultural". And it IS Soros and his thinktanks who hate Orban the most. Those are the forces behind the articles you spew.
Although, it looks like that that radio signal's another bust National Geographic
Somehow I was thinking it was a long shot, in more then one way.
"Hungary is doing better than ever (postt Soviet times) and will
hopefully continue to do so."
Taking foreign aid and spending it on the care and feeding of ones own political base is usually a sign of real bad economic planning and impending dependence on the foreign aid, which means impending subservience to the foreign power providing the aid. These are not generally thought to be the signs of political greatness that you seem to think they are.
"You probably side with the Soros line, where Europe most urgently
needs to become more ‘multicultural’."
That's a real bad guess too. I'm big on assimilation as a goal for immigrants.
I don't know, maybe this is one death we should let the Russians take credit for.
Russia said one of its airstrikes in Syria killed ISIS spokesman Mohammad al-Adnani -- a claim that a US official called preposterous.
Taking foreign aid and spending it on the care and feeding of ones own political base is usually a sign of real bad economic planning and impending dependence on the foreign aid, which means impending subservience to the foreign power providing the aid.
This is making the assumption that the foreign power actually provides aid. Some foreign powers get overstretched and their client states end up finding that the purse is empty. So then they are on their own, with a discontented, restless populace with time on their hands...getting into all sorts of trouble.
"…let the Russians take credit…"
Would we have to give them the $5 million reward?
"This is making the assumption that the foreign power actually provides aid."
In the case of Orbán one might expect the Russians will pick it up where the E.U. might drop it, unless the Russians are overstretched by that point (which is a risk).
Well, Trump managed to get out of Mexico without committing a major gaff or starting a war. This is good news for the Trump campaign. They did not discuss payment on Trump's wall (or, so says Trump); nor did Trump manage to get a down payment on the construction costs.
I did read that President Enrique Peña Nieto's favorability ratings in Mexico are actually lower than are Trump's ratings here. I'm not sure what to make of that.
Mexican President now says they did discuss payment on the proposed wall, if only briefly (Nieto says he opened the conversation by telling Trump that Mexico would not pay for the wall--perhaps Trump doesn't consider that a discussion). Nieto is catching a lot of crap for not being tough ‘nuff on Trump to his face in public in Mexico City, so maybe he's now remembering saying things that he forgot to say at the time. Hard to figure for sure who's telling the truth here.
[Cardinal Rubberstampi]: "Always a ‘tell’ on you, you start gloating over finding spelling errors. From that, we know that you know you're toasted."
LOL. Just giving you a handy 'out'. I don't have the inclination to educate y'all about brown dwarfs 'n' proper astrophysical stuff that y'all's showed yer ignorance of, and I certainly ain't continuin' an argument about lowercase letters. So might as well let ya slink off into the sunset on any ole' excuse. See ya later, Rubberstampi. I'll be back the next time ya parade yer ignorance.
"I don't have the inclination to educate y'all about brown dwarfs."
I don't need it. I first read about Proxima Centauri b in an article I merely skimmed, which mentioned that they had looked for a possible brown dwarf companion. I just didn't read that paragraph close enough, partly because it had virtually nothing to do with the question at hand, which was whether one should really expect to find life on Proxima Centauri b, which they discounted on account of the probable tidal lock.
You're simply a pompous ass who immediately jumped to the wrong conclusion about that (as is your wont). I simply saw no reason to run down that rabbit hole with you.
One thing to notice here, though that is relevant. We didn't have an argument about whether Proxima Centauri b was a red or a brown dwarf. That's because you were right; it is a red dwarf (not that that's important). We had the argument about whether or not the IAU had adopted an agreed upon designation scheme. The reason we argue about that is because you were wrong, still are, and you tend to argue forever when you're wrong. Which you are; wrong; again!
Post Script:
I would point out that I ain't slinking off, as you put it. I'm proudly still here, and I'm still right, and you're still wrong; and I'm still making a firm point of that fact. (Ya got the slinkin’ off part wrong too, added one more error to your tally, for whatever that's worth.)
Would we have to give them the $5 million reward?
Good question. But maybe it would be worth the money to send the dog barking up the wrong tree. Let the Russians deal with Daesh's revenge.
*sigh*
I just made the mistake of clicking on a link to Trump giving his speech on immigration. I've never liked that "fire and brimstone" kind of speech. It's a total turn off.
I found an internet link, but first was going to have to listen to a speech by Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, and I didn't want to sit through it, so I missed Trump's speech. From what I hear tell he went back to his original hardline position. Gonna build ‘an impenetrable, physical, tall, powerful, beautiful southern border wall’ and gonna deport all the illegals already here. Full-tilt hardass positions again after flirting with moving towards a more moderate stance. Figured out it was too late to abandon his right-winger base I guess. Might as well go down in flames.
Looking at quotes from Trump's speech, and it looks to me like he abandoned his prepared text and was winging it for a good portion of his speech. (Reads like Trump on a riff and not so much like a speechwriter who fully understands sentences, nouns, verbs, stuff like that.)
Later analysis indicates that Trump did waffle on whether or not he would deport all of the 11 million or so illegal immigrants already here. He just kinda hid that part amongst some fiery rhetoric against illegals in general.
"Let the Russians deal with Daesh's revenge."
I kinda think they'll hit us when they can, if they can, and they're already trying to hit us. Whether or not they blame us or the Russians changes very little. They'll hit us if they can. (They may bluster more and claim it's a revenge hit if that comes up, but they'd hit us anyway when they can, if they can; no change there.)
This is going to end in disaster:
https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CbBqJtsdPVQ/V8c4-0qHtiI/AAAAAAAAnUw/blfp7pFfnVwUpe04ZT5--SYu5ZrWUTs0QCLcB/s1600/housepricesaroundtheworld_lg.jpg
It's very frustrating to see this situation getting worse and worse year after year.
You should be figuring out when to sell then, shouldn't ya? (Might wanna err a little towards the side selling early.)
I do Lee. I wonder about that very often.
From a purely economic standpoint I should sell now and rent for a few years and buy back if/when the market has tanked. And if we had a functioning rental market I might have done so.
But the timing is not easy to predict here. It might well, with below 0 interest rates, be that prices keep climbing for several years.
I think it'll crash in the nezt 2 years or so, but I have been proven wrong before. I know there's a bubble but I can't really foresee whe it'll pop.
So my own strategy has been to be debt free. I could have made better deals in the meantime leveraging the loans I could have took but zero debt just feels good. Gives me peace of mind.
So now my aim is to accumulate cash to be in a position to buy in a bad market when banks only lend to those with solid finances.
Looks like Trump is intentionally confusing the question of where he stands on immigration. After being all hardass last night, he's doing "quite a bit of softening" this morning, or so he claims.
So my own strategy has been to be debt free.
If you have your house paid off then just sitting tight may be the best bet, economically. Then it's just a question of maintaining a job. But, if you were wanting to move suddenly, and the market had tanked, you might be stuck. Living in an apartment means more mobility. So if you really are concerned about the crime situation in your area, you may want to consider that as well.
Looks like Trump is intentionally confusing the question of where he stands on immigration.
Keeping them guessing may work in business negotiations, but I can't see where that is at all constructive in the political arena. It seems to me voters prefer a candidate they can relay on to maintain a set policy. At least during the election.
"relay" should be "rely"
Going to the fair tomorrow. Should be a long, food filled day. :)
If I may note one of today's oddities in the press…. The Russian Supreme Court has officially ruled that Russia did not invade Poland in September of 1939. And further ruled that the Russian government can jail people for saying otherwise.
It would seem that Lynnette's purported ‘alien’ signal was probably from a Russian military satellite. National Public Radio Online
Lynnette:
"If you have your house paid off then just sitting tight may be the best bet, economically. Then it's just a question of maintaining a job."
I am debt free, completely, and my job security is very high. I'm not so much worrried for my own sake but for our collective finances which will impact me as well even if I have enough margins.
Lynnette: "But, if you were wanting to move suddenly, and the market had tanked, you might be stuck."
Being debt free means I'm never really stuck.
Lynnette: "Living in an apartment means more mobility. So if you really are concerned about the crime situation in your area, you may want to consider that as well."
Nah, the area I live in is very quiet usually. The bad areas are some way away. And most importantly there are no rental units where I live and bad elements get stuck in rental unit areas.
The town as a whole might go down the shitter but my area will suffer last.
Tired. Will have to catch up on the comments tomorrow...
The town as a whole might go down the shitter but my area will suffer last.
No man is an island.
It would seem that Lynnette's purported ‘alien’ signal was probably from a Russian military satellite.
No, no, I just repeated the rumor. I think the source was actually Russian. Hmmm...apparently they don't know where their satellites are.
I see there is an anti-Trump protest outside a church in Detroit where he is speaking. His appeal to the African-American community doesn't seem to have legs.
A somewhat sizable earthquake here in the States, in our mid-section, originating in Oklahoma, but felt in Texas, Kansas, Missouri etc. I wonder if Bridget felt it? Or Zeyad?
Only way to know is to ask.
"His appeal to the African-American community doesn't seem to have legs."
Much like his trip to Mexico, he managed to not insult his hosts to their face, which makes it a win for him, considering the low bar that's set for Trump. In any case, he was actually trying to shore up his appeal to moderate white voters who don't want to be seen to support a bigot. This gives them cover to argue that he's not a bigot.
Only way to know is to ask.
Did.
Earthquake data from the USGS
Locations across the central and eastern United States (CEUS) have been experiencing a rapid increase in the number of induced earthquakes over the past 7 years. Since 2009 rates in some areas, such as Oklahoma, have increased by more than an order of magnitude. Scientific studies have linked the majority of this increased activity to wastewater injection in deep disposal wells in several locations. However, other mechanisms such as fluid withdrawal, enhanced oil recovery, or hydraulic fracturing processes can also result in induced earthquakes. In addition, regions with frequent induced earthquakes may also be subject to damaging earthquakes that would have occurred independently of human activity. Making a strong scientific case for a causative link between a particular human activity and a particular sequence of earthquakes typically involves special studies devoted specifically to the question. Such investigations usually address the process by which the suspected triggering activity might have significantly altered stresses in the bedrock at the earthquake source, and they commonly address the ways in which the characteristics of the suspected human triggered earthquakes differ from the characteristics of natural earthquakes in the region.
It seems that even the USGS is thinking that human activity, such as fracking, is causing more earthquakes.
I have to wonder just a little if an increase in induced earthquake activity could lead to a more serious natural earthquake? Or do the fault lines run too deep to be affected by a little shaking up above? If these quakes are felt in multiple states, could this affect some place like Yellowstone? Or is Wyoming at a safe distance, a couple of states away? Although, it is closer to North Dakota, where they have been fracking as well.
Will we wake up one day realizing that fracking seemed like a good idea at the time, but is actually causing some serious problems that we didn't foresee?
In any case, he was actually trying to shore up his appeal to moderate white voters who don't want to be seen to support a bigot. This gives them cover to argue that he's not a bigot.
They may want to think about that a little, considering some of the supporters he is attracting.
"I have to wonder just a little…"
I presume those are rhetorical questions and not an attempt to induce Petes to come back and start another argument.
"They may want to think about that a little, considering…"
They don't need to convince other, more reasonable, people, they only need to rationalize their support for Trump to themselves, and the argument will be adequate for that purpose.
"Will we wake up one day realizing that fracking seemed like a good idea at the time, but is actually causing some serious problems that we didn't foresee?"
Super unlikely. Fracking tremors are shallow. But the pressure is too high even at those depths to accommodate voids for very long. So a little settling is gonna happen.
"I presume those are rhetorical questions and not an attempt to induce Petes to come back and start another argument."
Speak of the devil and he shall appear.
Remember that polling "science" y'all were such a fan of? Well even yer mate Nate seems to agree that Trump is looming again ...
"In case you hadn’t noticed, the polling gap between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is slowly narrowing, according to Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight.com where Trump has gone from a 12 percent chance of winning to a 27 percent chance in four short weeks. By itself, it doesn’t seem all that scary for Democrats, but when we look at the trendlines, the race is clearly narrowing, with no signs of slowing. The latest IBD/TIPP poll shows a national dead-heat, 39-to-39. The Los Angeles Times shows Trump leading by a point, as does the Republican-leaning Rasmussen. Talking Points Memo’s Polltracker average has Hillary up by just one.
Should Democrats and, indeed, all reasonable human beings panic now? Maybe."
Trump's up to a 27% chance and his supporters are suggesting a ‘panic’ is appropriate amongst the NeverTrump contingent. What they don't mention is that Hillary's been bleeding support in the last few months as the e-mail controversy gets replayed again and again. But, that support has not been going to Trump. It's moved to the two minor party candidates.
Trump's still stuck near the high 30s, low 40s break line; the voters are not goin’ to him. (As of this moment Trump's got 38.2% in the RCP average.) As the days go on and it becomes clear that the ‘new revelations’ regarding Hillary's e-mail problems are simply the old revelations replayed--still no smoking gun, no ‘there’ there; no ‘beef ’ in answer to the question, ‘Where's the beef?’, it'll all blow over and the people who refused to go to Trump even as the press played up Hillary's e-mail troubles will gradually fall back to Hillary, on account of neither of the two minor candidates are gonna win, and they don't want Trump.
Nope: Way too early to panic. No reason even to worry. This is just the media playin’ up the possibility of real race someday, maybe; on account of there's no readership, no clicks comin’, from headlines that say, ‘No Real Change; Trump's Still Dead in the Water.’
"Remember that polling "science" y'all were such a fan of?"
YOU were the one who opened the claim that you had ‘science’ on your side. Would you like me to go get that quote for you? Just say the word.
Better yet, why don't you explain that ‘science’ you were talkin’ ‘bout for us. I'm sure they'd like see that--I think we'd all get a laugh (well, ‘cept probably for you).
Post Script re: Hillary vs Trump
Since there's no there there, the current breathless rehash of Hillary's e-mail problems won't be sustainable for very long. In the absence of any actual scandal the rumor of an impending scandal, of revelations yet to come, won't carry the story through to November. It'll fade; they moved on it too early--shoulda waited another month or six weeks, but even if they had, it still wouldn't have been ‘nuff; woulda made it closer at the end, but wouldn't have been ‘nuff.
Post-Post Script:
It is possible that Hillary could blow it in the debates (not bloody likely, but there is the outside chance). Absent that, Trump's toast.
I've a better idea for a laugh about science. How about we discuss the properties of Proxima Centauri, the "brown dwarf". Which shade o' brown do y'all reckon it is, in yer esteemed astrophysical awesomeness?
Cue Chumpy to restart the lowercase letter smokescreen ;-)
Speak of the devil and he shall appear.
ROFL!
Super unlikely. Fracking tremors are shallow. But the pressure is too high even at those depths to accommodate voids for very long. So a little settling is gonna happen.
Good. So we really just have to concern ourselves with the shallow tremors, which we should build to withstand, anyway.
[Lee] Only way to know is to ask.
[Lynnette] Did.
The answers were both "no".
Hmmm...President Obama was interviewed for Fareed Zakaria's show, and he has some book recommendations.
The first: The Underground Railroad
The second: Sapiens
Both sound interesting. I will place them here for those interested and to remind me, lest I forget. :)
Now I've got chores to do...
"Which shade o' brown do y'all reckon it is, in yer esteemed
astrophysical awesomeness?"
In your eagerness to find a fight to distract from your bullshit position on the ‘agreement’ which did not exist regarding exoplanet designations, you seem to have latched onto the idea of rehashing an argument about brown dwarfs that does not exist either.
How is it you keep missing all these shots you're takin’?
Lee: "Nope: Way too early to panic. No reason even to worry. This is just the media playin’ up the possibility of real race someday, maybe; on account of there's no readership, no clicks comin’, from headlines that say, ‘No Real Change; Trump's Still Dead in the Water.’"
They were almost as sure of a no-Brexit vote, bit they were wrong.
I read a comment to an article (yes just a mere comment that I can't even find now) that basically said that "all the people I despise seems to be anti-Trump, so I'm gonna vote for Trump".
Do not underestimate the spite-vote.
"They were almost as sure of a no-Brexit vote, [but] they were wrong."
Don't know who ‘they’ were, but they weren't me.
Wait, I remember: One of the ‘they’ who were wrong was Petes. That's hardly surprising is it? Certainly doesn't positively effect the odds of Trump turning his failing fortunes around (other than that Petes supports Trump, says Trump will win last he said anything on the subject, which doesn't improve Trump's odds even a little bit.).
It appears that Europe is reaching a limit on refugees, according to European Council President Donald Tusk.
And they're not even caught up yet.
Germans punish Merkel and sends her party to third place in her home state, while AfD, a party founded as recently as 2013, gains a remarkable 22% of the vote:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3773361/Merkel-smashed-home-state-polls-far-Right-year-let-hundreds-thousands-migrants-Germany.html
Germans apparently don't all share Merkels decision to give away their home country to wellfare migrants from Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
"Germans punish Merkel and sends her party to third place in her
home state…"
Your link says tied for second place.
Yeah in that case the link is wrong, AfD came out about 1 percentagepoint higher than CDU. It's in a local election in a small state but a symbolic one. Not even leftist publications such as the Guardian and the Spiegel have anything other to say than it was a significant blow to Merkel and it was due to miscntent over her open borders politics last year. Ya'll can easily do a Google and look up your preferred news outlet.
Germany, like the US, is a democracy. People have a right to vote and think as they will. It is not easy in the best of times to accept large numbers of people into a country, let alone when they come with baggage that may prove challenging security wise. Not everyone will agree with what should be done. That is why wise leadership is key. Time will tell whether or not Merkel has handled this situation wisely.
We got one who doesn't want to pretend that Trump's got a shot. (Well, not very hard anyway.)
Has Trump hit his ceiling?
"The last six years in Washington are on track to look like a golden age
of cooperation compared to what’s coming if Hillary Clinton wins the
White House and Paul Ryan keeps his GOP majority in the House.
***
"[0]n Ryan’s side, while handicappers still show him retaining a
Republican majority, the 2016 season will have delivered a different
kind of conference after Democrats pick off many of the moderates
who gave him the leeway to keep the Freedom Caucus in check, even
as he says privately and publicly that he believes rebuilding his party is
about passing bills again.
***
"Add in Ryan’s expected run for president in 2020 and the thought that
either the first-term president or her likely future challenger would
share credit with the person who might soon be starring in the other’s
campaign commercials leads to rapid onset depression for some of the
aides closest to these two principals.
"‘The next four years are going to totally suck,’ said a person close to
Ryan."
Politico.com
"The last six years in Washington are on track to look like a golden age
of cooperation compared to what’s coming if Hillary Clinton wins the
White House and Paul Ryan keeps his GOP majority in the House."
Then maybe we need to see that they don't. Any shot of that?
"Then maybe we need to see that they don't. Any shot of that?"
Outside chance of a Democratic sweep large enough to deliver the House back to the Democrats, or perhaps to chastise the Republican majority if they retain a slim enough majority. But, it's a way outside chance; I sure as hell ain't holdin’ my breath on that one. (I really don't know why Hillary even wants to be President in this environment, but she does, and somebody's got beat Trump, so….)
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