On November 13, 2015 an unknown, at
this time, group of people decided it would be a good idea to attack
various locations in Paris, France. We have seen this before with
the Charlie Hebdo killings, and of course in other countries around
the world, including my own on 9/11/01. Sadly, there are those who
cheer this type of behavior on. But it is hatred at its most dark.
Is this really what we want to become? I have struggled recently
with some difficult situations in my own life that have challenged my
ability to forgive. But I have also encountered some wise people who
have helped me to see that hatred is not worth it. It only feeds on
itself, making the one who hates miserable.
The people who wrought such misery on
innocent people in France will be brought to justice. That is
assured, either in this life or in the hereafter. We, the living,
must honor the memory of those killed, not with hatred, but with the
grace of compassion. That is what being civilized means. That is
what the people who perpetrated the attacks do not understand.
I stand tonight in sadness with the
people of France.
Update:
This is courage.
You can't make me hate...
Update:
This is courage.
You can't make me hate...
164 comments:
ISIS is claiming responsibility as of this morning. It's a credible claim.
Yes.
I have heard this morning that there were two passports found near the bodies of two of the attackers, one Syrian and one Egyptian. I have also heard they are fake and that the attackers were speaking French. Don't know what is true or not. But I think it would be wise to be careful on how we proceed. The attacks were apparently random, suggesting a possibility of a desire to not just incite terror, but to perhaps incite reprisal attacks against Syrian and Egyptian nationals residing in France. Similar to what we have seen in a couple of instances here where people have implied they wanted to incite a race war. In Europe a war between native and foreign born residents would be an ISIS victory.
The Saker suggests a false flag, he comes as close as saying it without actually saying it but the followers in the comment section are already convinced:
http://thesaker.is/a-warning-about-the-paris-terror-attacks/
One of the reasons I don't read his blog very much any longer. I actually just stopped by to see if this too was a big conspiracy. It was they think.
A big tragedy this. Paris was always one of my most favourite cities and I went there as late as May this year for a long weekend. Of course the real tragedy are the dead and their grieving relatives. Sad.
Got one (in an unrelated strike).
Maybe I'll get myself adjusted to calling them DAESH, as many Arabs do. I've gotten accustomed to using ISIS, but I could probably develop a new habit here with just a little bit of work.
Lee: "Maybe I'll get myself adjusted to calling them DAESH, as many Arabs do. I've gotten accustomed to using ISIS, but I could probably develop a new habit here with just a little bit of work."
I've gotten used to IS myself. But I'm game if you are. Let us use Daesh instead if ISIL, ISIS, IS or any other name going forward. Let us hope that the vast maajority of arab muslims opppose these killers and name them as those muslims who hate them do: Daesh.
Deal?
I'd been under the impression that they hated ISIS as much as Daesh, the two being almost exactly equivalent except that ISIS is the English acronym and DEASH is the Arabic acronym for almost the exact same thing, i.e. Iraq and Syria a/k/a al-Sham (I'm still under that impression).
"The group has even sanctioned a kid in Anbar because he dared to
call it ISIS, as it considered it to be an insult. It broadcasted [sic] the
video to be a lesson to others."
Al Arabiya
I think the ‘bigot’ word is actually ‘Da'ish’ in English, although I've not been able to confirm that. (There's no universally accepted master translation between Arabic and the Indo-European languages or their alphabets, and Arabic is written in a syllabic script rather than phonic so literal one-for-one equivalences are rather rare except in the case of modern words (e.g. computer, cell-phone, etc.) or technical phrases) Daesh also sounds a lot like Arabic words for a one who sows discord a/a/a ‘troublemaker’ and one who tramples something underfoot But, I digress…
After doing a bit of research I've come to the conclusion that the Prevailing Conventional Wisdom is that ISIS hated the name ISIS (still does), but has come to hate being called Daesh even more, because even the ones who don't speak English get that insult. Accordingly, I will start calling them Daesh for a while and see if I can get comfortable with it.
One of the reasons I don't read his blog very much any longer.
His blog was interesting if one wanted to see how the latest anti-West spin was being spun.
Paris was always one of my most favourite cities and I went there as late as May this year for a long weekend.
Paris is still there, you can still visit. Just like New York, the people will not let this destroy their city.
Of course the real tragedy are the dead and their grieving relatives. Sad.
Yes. As are all of the people who have been senselessly killed by Daesh.
Maybe I'll get myself adjusted to calling them DAESH, as many Arabs do. I've gotten accustomed to using ISIS, but I could probably develop a new habit here with just a little bit of work.
I have tried to use the term the President has been using, ISIL. But I have always thought it not quite right. I have often wondered perhaps if I shouldn't switch to Daesh. Not so much because it is so hated by those in the organization, but because it is the term chosen to be used by natives of the region in which it formed. It is their right I think to coin the name of the terror in their midst. So I will also try it out for a while and see how it fits.
"…because it is so hated by those in the organization…"
I consider that to be an entirely adequate reason, so long as there's a choice to be made, and no countervailing considerations. When the government switched to using ISIL I stuck with ISIS ‘cause I knew they hated it, and it was in common usage, so there was no really good reason not to.
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I believe ya'll remember Graeme Wood, he's the author of that Atlantic article I linked to here some time back, What ISIS Really Wants. Good piece.
He's got a theory on the Paris attacks that I thought worth sharing. (He uses IS now, although he went with ISIS before.)
Dexter Filkins sometimes has some good stuff sometimes. This is a generic piece for those who've not been following the Kurdish response to Daesh real closely. This is stuff we all know. But, it got me to thinking…
Last I knew the Kurds had re-taken eastern Mosul (east and north of the Tigris--river kinda curves there), and, as I recall, Daesh blew the bridges to keep them out of western Mosul--an area they probably didn't want anyway, but that includes the ‘downtown’ city center. Western Mosul, downtown Mosul, is now almost entirely Sunni Arab, everybody else has been killed or driven out. All indications are that the Kurds have absolutely no interest in taking those Arab sections on the west side of the river. They're probably kool with the bridges getting blown.
So, what happens when Baghdad's forces, either Shia militia or a Shia dominated Iraqi Army contingent, try to take back western Mosul from Daesh? Does Daesh put up a fight for that? Will there be much of Arab Mosul left, or will that area end up looking like Kobanê?
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Back to Paris: At least one of the men involved in the Paris attacks was carrying a Syrian passport recently registered on the Greek island of Lesbos--having come in as a ‘refugee’ from Syria. Yahoo (Not ruled out that the passport may have changed hands since.) They're also checking a hint that at least one other terrorist came in through Greece.
Mr. Graeme Wood may want to rethink his speculations, or maybe not; we'll have to wait and see.
I don't recognize this author, but I recognize this argument, and I agree. We're not going to be able to kill our way out of this jihadi problem.
I've said before that I think it's high time told the Saudi that they're skating on fairly thin ice with us. And that's just part of the problem now.
@ Lynnette,
We'll soon see which Republicans are serious about getting serious with ISIS (they're gonna be using that terminology; they will not know of our experiment here) and which Republicans are not serious but want to talk tough instead of being tough.
The serious ones will be contemplating an Authorization to Use Force in Syria, and beyond Syria against ISIS where it may be found. The non-serious ones won't want to be having any votes on that subject.
Here's a thought. If France invokes Article 5 of the NATO treaty then we can put a NATO flag on our operations and Obama won't need a congressional authorization. (If France invokes Article 5.)
Doesn't change my guess that a lot of Republicans are going to want to make sure their fingerprints ain't on any military actions in Syria. Just means Obama can go around them if he needs to, if France invokes….
Well, it's now Sunday evening and it appears that some things have become clearer, perhaps...
An Iraqi official is saying that the attacks were ordered by Daesh's leadership . If true then Graeme's theory is not correct. Given the tactics used I would think this was planned well in advance and probably there was some training. That doesn't sound like lone wolf, or some lone group, behavior.
Besides France, the US and Iran are also on Daesh's hit list, apparently.
If France invokes Article 5 of the NATO treaty then we can put a NATO flag on our operations and Obama won't need a congressional authorization. (If France invokes Article 5.)
I don't know if they have, or not, evoked article 5, but they have carried out some targeted air strikes on Raqqa with the help of US intelligence. So, while it may not be official, I think we are supporting our ally in any case.
So, what happens when Baghdad's forces, either Shia militia or a Shia dominated Iraqi Army contingent, try to take back western Mosul from Daesh? Does Daesh put up a fight for that? Will there be much of Arab Mosul left, or will that area end up looking like Kobanê?
That's the $64,000 question. I think Mosul is almost as important as Raqqa. It could be their last stand. Or not. They may simply melt away to other nooks and crannies only to pop up again later. I tend to agree that the ultimate solution will not be military. Military action can only tamp down the flames.
...it would be fair to say that these much-lauded symbolic and tactical victories against ISIS have not only been overshadowed, but totally overcast. The author with regard to the killing of Jihadi John and the Kurds assault on Sinjar in comparison to the Paris attacks.
I think I tend to disagree. The killing of Jihadi John, like the killing of Bin Laden, is sending a message that while you may strike at us you will not get away with it. Eventually, come hell or high water, you will be found, and you will be dealt with.
The Kurd's move on Sinjar is more of a pre-positioning to allow future actions. It is in effect a step in a process. So it may not seem important at this time, but it may prove crucial in the future.
The Paris attacks, while a tragedy for France, are not going to be a long term danger to France, as long as they are very careful in how they proceed with their internal struggles with integration of foreign born residents. That is, they cannot allow reprisal attacks to alienate those in the Muslim community who could be of help in defeating Daesh's efforts to take advantage of the fissures in French society.
Put another way, if we so chose, we too could look like the Russians as they strike in Syria. But it is not in our interests to use sledge hammer tactics. It does not help the long term struggle to defeat Daesh's ideology of violence. We must be more nuanced in our strategy.
"An Iraqi official is saying that the attacks were ordered by Daesh's
leadership."
Information volunteered by Iraqi officials is notoriously unreliable.
There's been a lot of talk about the dearth of Daesh ‘chatter’ picked up by the NSA prior to the Paris attacks. There are two favored theories for this.
1. The plans were laid locally, in France.
2. Daesh has perfected communications that our listeners can't penetrate; it's called ‘going dark’ in the intelligence community.
The first theory works well with Wood's base speculations (although Daesh in the Sunni heartland may have been told in general terms that a sympathetic attack might be expected in Paris). The second is an alternate theory entirely. And it gives our spooks the willies just to contemplate it.
"Military action can only tamp down the flames."
We can go in and destroy Daesh; level Raqqa and Mosul and Ramadi and Tikrit and all their bases, and the jihadi will just pop up again somewhere else, under a different name perhaps. And telling the story about the Crusaders attacking the Caliphate, but it's back, meaner than ever.
We can't kill our way out of this problem. It's ultimately gonna havta be settled among Muslims.
I usually try to avoid over-long quotes from articles, but I thought this Op-Ed deserved publicity.
"The Islamic State’s strategy is to polarize Western society — to
‘destroy the grayzone,’ as it says in its publications. The group hopes
frequent, devastating attacks in its name will provoke overreactions by
European governments against innocent Muslims, thereby alienating
and radicalizing Muslim communities throughout the continent. The
atrocities in Paris are only the most recent instances of this
accelerating campaign. Since January, European citizens fighting with
the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria have provided online and material
support to lethal operations in Paris, Copenhagen and near Lyon,
France, as well as attempted attacks in London, Barcelona and near
Brussels.These attacks are not random, nor are they aimed primarily
at affecting Western policy in the Middle East. They are, rather, part
of a militarily capable organization’s campaign to mobilize extremist
actors already in Europe and to recruit new ones.
"The strategy is explicit. The Islamic State explained after the January
attacks on Charlie Hebdo magazine that such attacks ‘compel the
Crusaders to actively destroy the grayzone themselves. …Muslims in
the West will quickly find themselves between one of two choices,
they either apostatize…or they [emigrate] to the Islamic State and
thereby escape persecution from the Crusader governments and
citizens.’ The group calculates that a small number of attackers can
profoundly shift the way that European society views its 44 million
Muslim members and, as a result, the way European Muslims view
themselves. Through this provocation, it seeks to set conditions for an
apocalyptic war with the West.
"Unfortunately, elements of European society are reacting as the
Islamic State desires."
WaPo
Re: American politics
Republican ‘Establishment’ types are hoping for a two-pronged assist from the Paris attacks. They've been befuddled and alarmed by the persistent front runner status of the two non-traditional candidates, Donald Trump and now Ben Carson. They're hoping to heaven that the carnage in Paris will bring Republican primary voters back to ‘national security’ issues, a subject upon which neither of those guys is even marginally conversant. They're hoping to finally kill off those guys as casualties of the Paris attacks.
And, of course, they're hoping to re-establish the traditional Republican advantage with voters concerned over physical security (both the voters' and the country's security). That was largely lost after the Dubya years, but they've mounted a seven year campaign to portray Obama as ‘weak’ and it's been somewhat successful. They're hoping that this bleeds over onto Hillary.
(I was both partly amused and partly offended yesterday morning by FoxNewsSunday's tactic of running a graphic (chyron) throughout its entire hour screaming ‘Alert Alert’ in bright red and gold along with flashing backlighting mimicking the flashing lights of emergency vehicles--they never did identify the emergency, but they were clearly trying to pump up the hysterics in their audience whom they hope might be moved to swing into action behind more traditional Republican candidates.)
Re: Turkish politics
Erdoğan hasn't entirely given up on his hopes to establish a powerful executive office for himself to fill. Al Monitor Hard to say how much hope he really holds for that, but he's not entirely given up on it.
Lynnette: "Paris is still there, you can still visit. Just like New York, the people will not let this destroy their city."
And I will visit. Paris and New York both. New York is another one on my list of favourite cities. I merely remarked on it because somehow it feels even more when things like this happen in a place you feel you have a personal connection to.
Lee: "2. Daesh has perfected communications that our listeners can't penetrate; it's called ‘going dark’ in the intelligence community.
The first theory works well with Wood's base speculations (although Daesh in the Sunni heartland may have been told in general terms that a sympathetic attack might be expected in Paris). The second is an alternate theory entirely. And it gives our spooks the willies just to contemplate it."
It might not be relevant in this case and not what you mean but it's fairly easy to use one time encryption pads to write an encoded message that can be sent through open chanels that is unbreakable. You need only to have two sets of randomly generated key-pads, one for the sender and one for the receiver, use them only once and keep the message short enough that you don't use the entire key and rotate back from the beginning.
Lee: "So, what happens when Baghdad's forces, either Shia militia or a Shia dominated Iraqi Army contingent, try to take back western Mosul from Daesh? Does Daesh put up a fight for that? Will there be much of Arab Mosul left, or will that area end up looking like Kobanê?"
Are the Shia even up for that fight? They'd be going way out into enemy territory and it's a fair bet that the locals would not welcome them. Also, even if they could score an initial victory then there's the problem of holding it, which they failed miserably at the last time around.
Also I believe Mosul is quite a bit down their list of priorities and that they would rather secure Daesh controlled areas closer to Baghdad first. Why focus on Mosul when the enemy is close by in Ramadi?
"but it's fairly easy to use one time encryption pads…"
They've been around for a hundred years and don't get too much use because, quite simply, they're not fairly easy to use correctly.
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"Also I believe Mosul is quite a bit down their list of priorities…
And yet Baghdad can't be talked into letting the Kurds keep it if they take it. Unfortunate that; the Kurds might be convinced to clear it out if they were assured they'd get to keep it. They still remember being forced out en mass by Saddam back in the 70s. But, maybe even that wouldn't entice them.
Why Terrorists love PlayStation 4
There are also several new encryption apps available on cell-phones these days that're a bitch to crack.
Lee: "They've been around for a hundred years and don't get too much use because, quite simply, they're not fairly easy to use correctly."
They've been around for a thousand years actually, but as you say they are cumbersome to use.
Still, if one wanted to pass a message from one node to another node and it was prepared in advance it could be done with complete secrecy.
Lee: "And yet Baghdad can't be talked into letting the Kurds keep it if they take it. Unfortunate that; the Kurds might be convinced to clear it out if they were assured they'd get to keep it. They still remember being forced out en mass by Saddam back in the 70s. But, maybe even that wouldn't entice them."
I'm sure you're right that Baghdad won't promise Mosul to the Kurds. But even if they did I'm not so sure the Kurds would want to take it, given the casualties they would take taking it and the costly mess it would be trying to hold it.
In a move that is stunning in it's blatant unconstitutionality…
"At least four Republican governors are moving to block Syrian
refugees from entering their states…
"Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson on
Monday joined Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley and Michigan Gov. Rick
Snyder in refusing to accept refugees from Syria."
Politico.com
"…and the costly mess it would be trying to hold it."
I don't know that it'd be that costly to hold against Sunnistan if the Sunni didn't have Baghdad's backing. Biggest danger of a costly mess is if the Kurds have to kill a bunch of Sunni to get the west bank--and then the Sunni start plotting their revenge, more for the blood feud than the territorial claim, turning Mosul into a Sunni cause.
Der Speigel has somehow laid hands on a Russian government strategy paper. This appears to outline a ‘best case’ ending for Putin's Russia; not all of these goals are realistic; Putin probably knows that, but they're all real goals if gettable.
Add Bobby Jindal to the list of Republican governors for whom the Constitution appears to be an avoidable obstacle to their plans to declare their state borders secure against Syrian refugees. CNN
List is apparently growing, but I don't have all the names yet. I'd offer 3-2 odds that they're all Republicans―so far anyway.
"At least nine U.S. governors have already announced that they will
no longer allow Syrian refugees to enter their states."
NBCNews
I would have lost the bet. CBSNews Tom Wolfe, Pennsylvania, is a Democrat, and I believe Paul LaPage, Maine, is an ex-Republican now officially independent.
2. Daesh has perfected communications that our listeners can't penetrate; it's called ‘going dark’ in the intelligence community.
It's been apparent for some time that we listen in, if possible. It was only a matter of time before Daesh switched to some other method of communication, whether it be some form of encryption via the internet or simply hand carried messages. We need to work around the problem using other methods.
Nope LaPage is a Republican still in good standing. It's Maine's Senator, Angus King, who's an independent.
"The Islamic State’s strategy is to polarize Western society...
That is what I meant earlier. But this is a two way street. If there are fissures in Western society there are chasms in Daeshland. While all of those refugees are a source of fear for many out there, they are also a symptom of Daesh's inability to appeal to the general masses, despite their call for people to join their caliphate. I do not believe for a minute that they are all terrorist wannabes. That is what Daesh wants us to believe.
"At least nine U.S. governors have already announced that they will
no longer allow Syrian refugees to enter their states."
And are they going to deny access to their states for Syrians who live in other states? Are they going to build walls between their states and their neighboring states?
Their xenophobia merely plays into Daesh's hands.
They're not going to do any of those things. They're gonna remind their voters that they took this hard-ass position when they run in the Republican primary this year. Their voters don't give a damn that it's patently illegal.
I gave Tom Wolf, Pennsylvania, (D) a bad rap. He said he's continue to work with the feds to ensure the background checks were getting done.
We're up over a dozen Republicans, and we now have two Democratic governors getting in on it, Govs. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire and Steve Bullock of Montana, both Dems.
I have occassionally taken the Obama administration to task for not arming the Kurds directly instead of sending it through Baghdad (where the armaments sometimes evaporated in the heat of Southern Iraq). It seems there's an obstacle to what I was proposing. It happens to be illegal under long-standing American law Foreign Assistance and Arms Export Act. Guess I'll cut ‘em some slack on that from here on out.
The cyber-geek group Anonymous has issued a Declaration of War against ISIS. Fortune Maybe the feds will get some help with those encrypted e-mails.
Vox (usually an area of intelligence) has a theory that Da‘esh is moving to international terrorism because, contrary to our right-wingers' firm beliefs, turned almost into Prevailing Conventional Wisdom by repeated loud and passionate recitals, Da‘esh is actually losing its primary fight for its territorial ambitions. Vox
In other words: They're scrambling for another paradigm, ‘cause their first and most favored plan is going steadily down the tubes.
I read about that too. I also read that when they last year could count on new recruits arriving in the hundreds daily from all over the world (although mostly from the ME and Europe) now they are down to single digits per day. They can't replenish their combat losses and have to be increasingly vigilant against desertions.
On the matter of desertions, Michael Weiss, who conveniently writes on the subjects of Russia and on Da‘esh, has begun a serialized piece in The Daily Beast. Part One came out Sunday, Part Two is just out. I've been keeping an eye out for it, if it's as good as the first part I was going to link them up here. (Might as well go ahead and provide the links now I guess Part One, Part Two. Part Three is due out Wednesday; Part Four on Thursday.)
It's compiled from interviews from a Da‘esh deserter.
It has the same sort of information regarding recruiting numbers, says they're down from 3,000 a day at the high point to no more than 50 or 60 a day now (that's still plenty) and it gets into the Jihadi/Mukhābarāt alliance in Part Two.
And, since we're on the subject of the Jihadi/Mukhābarāt alliance/competition… I had been thinking that the recent turn towards international terrorism might indicate that the Jihadi wing of the alliance is ascendant just now. I guess we'll see later this week if Mr. Weiss' confidential informant agrees with my analysis on that.
Maybe Lynnette should ask Zeyad if his longed for Sunnistan is going down the tubes already?
And, just by the way… I've noticed a trend among journalists who work the Middle East beat, TV journalists especially but not exclusively, to smugly pontificate about how they always knew that Da‘esh had aspirations to international terrorism. And Paris is just the evidence of what they always knew coming true.
I will resist the urge to bash the media, as they get enough of that already, even though they deserve it this time and the urge is there. Even journalists have trouble with admitting they were taken by surprise.
Instead I simply point out that a lot of those guys were just now just barely getting up to speed on the fact that Saddam's old Mukhābarāt was at the organizational core of Da‘esh's rise in Iraq and later in Syria (a point Mr. Weiss' confidential informant touches upon in Part Two of that series I linked just above). Those guys really had no interest in global jihad―they wanted Sunnistan; probably still do.
We have here a fairly good overarching analysis/Op-Ed on the rise of Da‘esh (and fairly long, warning ya'll)as a function of the mess that has been Muslim governance in the Middle East since the fall of the Ottoman Empire (more theory, less nuts-and-bolts stuff).
I think it's a pretty good piece and recommend it, but only if ya got the time for it. Ain't much in the way of current news events or nuts-and-bolts stuff in there.
Not too long, fairly short in fact; worth looking at.
"The Return of Islamophobia
"In a new op-ed today, Romney insists, 'We must begin by identifying
the enemy. We will not defeat it if we are afraid to call it by its name.'
He cites no historical examples of wars that were lost due to leaders
failing to identify their enemy with the correct verbiage — he simply
treats the strategic value of offending Muslims as self-evident."
NYMag
Lee: "Instead I simply point out that a lot of those guys were just now just barely getting up to speed on the fact that Saddam's old Mukhābarāt was at the organizational core of Da‘esh's rise in Iraq and later in Syria (a point Mr. Weiss' confidential informant touches upon in Part Two of that series I linked just above). Those guys really had no interest in global jihad―they wanted Sunnistan; probably still do."
I have been thinking about that too. And I wonder to what extent the attacks in Sinai and Paris were known of or approved of by Daesh leadership. It could well be that their leadership do not really want these attacks because it will give them a much harder time in their preferred Sunnistan conquests, but that their propaganda makes some zealots act on their own and then Daesh is more or less forced to take responsibility to keep up with their own announced view of the organisation/caliphate.
If indeed Saddams old Mukhabarat are at the core of Daesh you'd expect them to be ruthless and cruel but also pretty pragmatic and smart. And to make just about everynone into a dedicated mortal enemy doesn't seem that pragmatic. Nor smart. Or the pragmatic ones have been eclipsed by the ideologically insane ones, who knows?
BTW, you got the part 1 and part 2 of the Daily Beast articles switched around when you linked to them above Lee. Interesting reading both though.
"…you got the part 1 and part 2 of the Daily Beast articles switched
around…"
Shit happens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edmqTODMZC4
Damn! Have these clowns never heard of The Constitution?
"One bill that's getting serious consideration for a vote Thursday is
North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson's ‘America SAFE Act of 2015.’
The bill would force the secretary of Homeland Security to certify that
each refugee has been vetted. Top Republicans believe such a bill
would garner a strong bipartisan majority."
Politico.com
The Secretary of Homeland Security is cabinet position. The Secretary does not have the authority to issue, overrule, or compromise Presidential executive orders like Obama's September order authorizing an additional 10,000 Syrian refugees. They might as well demand that ‘certification’ from the postman that delivers their mail. (As if Obama wouldn't veto the damn thing anyway.)
What they need to do is pass a law overriding the Executive Order, and then they override Obama's veto of that law, and then they got something. Else they're just wastin’ time and energy. (And these clowns lay claim to ‘leadership’ of the Free World?)
I gave Montana Governor Steve Bullock (D) bad press yesterday. (Some news outlets were apparently overeager to find Democratic governors who'd buck Obama on this.) Bullock says he has safety concerns but has no plans to try to close Montana's borders to Syrian refugees admitted to the United States. That leaves only Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire as the sole Democratic governor officially objecting to settlement of Syrian refugees. In comparison, 26 of the 31 Republican governors have gone on record with objections and promises of obstruction if possible.
And just as I'm getting disgusted with neo-con and right-winger fantasies for the day…
An op-ed in The New Statesman reports ‘the widespread belief in the [Middle East] region even among the educated elite, that Da’esh is a US-led conspiracy against Arabs.’
And I figure, our crazies got nothin’ on them.
NYT Op-Ed: The professor thinks that:
1. Da’esh has reached its local limits and so is turning to global terrorism to keep up the recruitments
2. That ain't gonna work out for them any better than it worked out for al-Qaeda.
3. Nobody in the neighborhood really gives a shit about wiping out Da’esh--just defending against them―let them have their little Sunnistan.
4. The French would like to wipe out Da’esh, but they ain't got the chops.
5. The Americans got the necessaries to wipe out Da’esh, but no desire to get into Sunnistan there unless we absolutely have to.
Ergo: Da’esh probably got their Sunnistan as long as they want to hold it. But, trying to expand beyond it or keep up the global terrorist stuff on the side will likely get them stomped.
@ Lynnette:
PBS's Frontline tonight ‘ISIS in Afghanistan’; one hour.
Okay, so I just finished cruising through the comments. I will go back and read the links as I get time. Some look very interesting.
Huh! I was just going to mention that PBS special. Hopefully I can stay awake for it.
I see there are now about 29 states who would like to refuse Syrian refugees.
Hmmm...let me see, was it Ted Cruz who was thinking it would be okay to admit Syrian Christians, but not Syrian Muslims?
Last time I talked to Z was on Halloween. He was at work and wasn't very talkative.
If indeed Saddams old Mukhabarat are at the core of Daesh you'd expect them to be ruthless and cruel but also pretty pragmatic and smart. And to make just about everynone into a dedicated mortal enemy doesn't seem that pragmatic. Nor smart. Or the pragmatic ones have been eclipsed by the ideologically insane ones, who knows?
Perhaps it is as simple as revenge. Stir up all the fanatics and sic them on the West.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edmqTODMZC4
lol!
I liked that movie.
The organization was firmly principled when it was founded and remains so, says Ben FitzGerald, cybersecurity expert and technology director for the national security program at the Center for a New American Security.
From what I have read of Anonymous it is in effect an online flash mob, a group of people who are internet savvy and like to join together and pull pranks or make some kind of statement. Some of the early participants have been arrested and are no longer involved. I think some were flipped by the FBI. As I understand it there is no formal organization, just a group of people who band together to orchestrate a "prank". Having said that I can still laud their intent to mess with Daesh. We can hope that they can interfere with some of the propaganda Daesh is so intent on spreading via the internet.
The French have invoked a mutual-defense clause of the Treaty on European Union, article 42.7, rather than invoke article 5 of the NATO treaty. USAToday
This probably goes hand-in-glove with Putin's proclamation yesterday that France was now a Russian ally against Da’esh.
This is something of a reversal for France; up until the Paris attack they were among if not the most insistent voice demanding Assad's immediate resignation, while our Sec. Kerry was talking about Assad's resignation date being a negotiable item. That seems to have gone by the wayside now, and France is now a Russian ally along with the Assad regime.
(The folks in Kiev are probably nervous as hell over this development. If they're not they oughta be.)
Part Three: Ministries of Fear―Michael Weiss.
Lee: "Part Three: Ministries of Fear―Michael Weiss."
Interesting reading. Doesn't strike me as a place any sane person would want to relocate to. I wonder how many of the jihadi-tourists going from Europe to join Daesh end up regretting it something awful, and how many actually think they made the right choice. It would be interesting to get a figure on that, but alas we most likely never will.
Lee: "The French have invoked a mutual-defense clause of the Treaty on European Union, article 42.7, rather than invoke article 5 of the NATO treaty."
Sweden like all other EU states was quick to recognize this and pledge support. Just what kind of support is yet to be determined. The only "action" sweden has taken so far in the area is 35 special ops troops who are embedded with the Kurds. There was some talk from one political party that arming the Kurds with surplus swedish weaponry could be one way to assist. We do have some weaponry that would be very useful in this sort of conflict so I don't rule out that that would be our "contribution". Sending in swedish fighter jets would most likely be of little real use, but like in Libya could be a token representation.
Lee: "This probably goes hand-in-glove with Putin's proclamation yesterday that France was now a Russian ally against Da’esh.
This is something of a reversal for France; up until the Paris attack they were among if not the most insistent voice demanding Assad's immediate resignation, while our Sec. Kerry was talking about Assad's resignation date being a negotiable item. That seems to have gone by the wayside now, and France is now a Russian ally along with the Assad regime."
A bit too early to call, wouldn't you say?
"A bit too early to call, wouldn't you say?"
Didn't seem too early for Putin to call. He was rather ostentatious about it, full makeup and cameras while he instructed his fleet captain over the phone to treat the French as ‘full allies’ and part of the team. I presume that public flourish was cleared with François Hollande before Putin called for the cameras and makeup.
Obviously Putin jumped on that opportunity. It remains to be seen whether the French will jump on board with him. It would, as you say, be quite a reversal from their previous position.
"It remains to be seen whether the French will jump on board with him."
They've already announced they're coördinating their military maneuvers in Syria. It's rather immaterial whether or not they publicly and explicitly announce that Assad can stay. They're already on board with him.
I'm almost finished with the 3 part artile on Daesh. Very interesting. I've hard some of it before in bits and pieces, but this gives a whole picture.
That would be a four part article on Da’esh; Part Four: ‘How I Escaped From ISIS’ ― Michael Weiss
Lynnette: "From what I have read of Anonymous it is in effect an online flash mob, a group of people who are internet savvy and like to join together and pull pranks or make some kind of statement. [...] Having said that I can still laud their intent to mess with Daesh."
That whole getting f-cked by 72 virgins deal suddenly got a new meaning.
I mentioned earlier (Mon Nov 16, 05:31:00 a.m. ↑) that the Republican ‘Establishment’ was looking forward to having the candidacies of both Donald Trump and Ben Carson killed off, consumed, by the sudden Republican rush to national security issues. It appears their high hopes in that regard have been dashed.
"Donald Trump has gained political strength since the Paris terrorist
attacks last Friday, according to most of the polls released in the
aftermath."
The Hill
We probably should have seen this comin’.
Big news in Sweden right now. We're apparently in for an attack. An Iraqi born 25 YO dude with "some connection to Sweden" and possibly up to 10 helpers are said to have crossed our borders with the intent to attack.
I don't know how much is hysteria or a real treath but our Security Police have upgraded the threat level to 4 on a 1-5 scale.
I am of the opinion that if the security services has a name and a face then the would be attacker will probably be caught. I feel no real need to act with caution just because of a raised threat level and news hysteria. It could happen at any time and the most dangerous would be terrorists are the ones who act under the radar. So I go about my bussiness as usual. Not that I usually move in places that might be prioritized targets.
That said, something may happen here. We'll see I guess.
And one of the attackers in Paris apparently had a swedish fake passport.
If I told you that some immigrants in Sweden "lose" their passport up to 25 times per year and we accept that without question and just hand them a new one at the cost of about $50, then what would you think of us?
Would you consider us naive and foolish? I do.
One interesting, or funny, thing. This is from part 4 of Lee's articles:
"Abu Khaled and I walked from Laleli to the Sultanahmet district of Istanbul. He asked to see the Blue Mosque, the celebrated Ottoman complex. It might be the last time he ever got to see it, so I obliged. Female visitors, as signs everywhere instruct, are supposed to wear headscarves out of respect. But as we passed through the courtyard of Sultan Ahmet Camii, we spotted a woman in her twenties. She walked up the steps uncovered. But no one stopped her. Abu Khaled looked at her, as if he’d had an important revelation. “Syria will be like this again one day,” he said."
I went to visit the Blue Mosque in 2012 on a tourist visit to Istabul. The first day I was wearing shorts because it was warm and when I noticed the "no shorts sign" outside the Blue Mosque I backed off of trying to visit it. The next day I wore jeans instead and vetured inside. Only to find that about half of the male visitors, muslim most of them, wore shorts.
Beautiful building though. I seem to remember some Sultan had it built to eclipse the church of St Helen that stands just opposite (that the ottomans made a moskqe out of but which Kemal Attaturk made a museum to strike a grand bargain). Well' the Blue Mosque IMO has the St Helen beat when it comes to the exterior but the church/museum wins hands down when it comes to the interior.
Too bad the asian turks got to ethnically cleanse Anatolia of the Greeks and Armenians who used to live there, but that was so long ago it's more or less forgtten by now.
"If I told you that some immigrants…"
Too late for if's; you already gave us a rant ‘bout that.
Hillary has outlined her plan for defeating Da’esh.
First thing…
"That starts with a more effective coalition air campaign…"
Targets will suddenly appear, clear of civilians and ready for bombing, if only we elect Hillary.
Second thing…
"Local people and nations have to secure their own communities."
Locals will suddenly step up and fight Da’esh if only we elect Hillary.
Third thing…
"She called for deploying a special operations force that Obama
has [already] authorized and said she is ‘prepared to deploy more as
more Syrians get into the fight.’"
More Syrians get into the fight, yeah, got it; Third thing then is the Second Thing repeated for emphasis.
Fourth Thing…
"Turkey [will] step up and become full partners [rather than being]
focused on the Kurds…"
Turks will straighten their asses out if only we elect Hillary.
And it just goes on like that. Sounds like she's campaigning for the Republican nomination. It's more of the same ‘cept now it's gonna work better now that Obama's not doin’ it.
Link for the above: Hillary's ISIS strategy
If I told you that some immigrants in Sweden "lose" their passport up to 25 times per year and we accept that without question and just hand them a new one at the cost of about $50, then what would you think of us?
Would you consider us naive and foolish? I do.
Okay, since you already said it, I will just agree.
“Syria will be like this again one day,” he said."
An important statement I'm thinking, considering this came from a former Daesh member. It is people like him who will enlarge those chasms in Daeshland I mentioned earlier.
Btw, I managed to watch most of that PBS special on ISIS in Afghanistan the other night. That is some rugged country! Sad to think that they will have to contend with the brutality of something like Daesh after all of the fighting in the past.
. We're apparently in for an attack.
I think there are all sorts of attack scares going on right now. Some real, perhaps, and some imagined. We will simply go about our business and let our security personnel go about theirs.
Well, maybe the Republicans have added a few things lately that Hillary doesn't include, to-wit:
"Here is what Obama must do—and what I would do if I were
president today—to defeat ISIL and guarantee the safety of our
people.
"First, I would protect the homeland by immediately stopping the flow
of Syrian refugees into the United States…"
Marco Rubio
In fairness to Hillary, she's at least not proposing to defeat Da’esh by cutting off the escape of people fleeing from Da'eash.
"Next, I would reverse defense sequestration so we have the
capabilities to go on the offense against ISIL."
Paid for by more tax cuts no doubt. Okay, Hillary didn't do this one either.
"Furthermore…I would demand that Iraq’s Shiite-dominated
government grant greater autonomy to Sunnis…"
Yeah, right start demanding. Demanding always works.
"…and would provide direct military support to Sunnis and the
Kurds…."
And if that weren't, in fact, illegal under current American law.
"I would declare no-fly zones to ground Assad’s air force and
coalition-controlled “safe zones” in the country to stop his military."
Assad's air force is now the Russians; Assad's own planes got used up long time ago; he was down to using choppers to drop barrel bombs. Is Rubio really gonna go mano-a-mano on Putin there?
"All of this and more…"
Okay, so the Republicans do have a few extras Hillary ain't quite going for yet.
It does seem as if Marco Rubio is living in the past. Some of those things might have helped before, but now they might be problematic, specifically the grounding of Putin's air force. Oh, sorry, I meant to say Assad's air force...
Dang, out of time...that's what I get for napping.
"…specifically the grounding of Putin's air force."
In all fairness, Hillary did also mention a no-fly zone, but she acknowledged in the mention of it that she'd have to get agreement to that from the Russians.
Lynnette: "I think there are all sorts of attack scares going on right now. Some real, perhaps, and some imagined."
As I suspected police swiftly picked up the guy who was said to be preparing some kind of attack. It's all very hush-hush but apparently our Säpo got a tip from some other European security service who picked up some communication.
Lee: "Too late for if's; you already gave us a rant ‘bout that."
I had forgotten about that. I'm just so pissed off that it's beeen this way for years and years and it would be so easy to enact legislation to prevent such abuse but nothing ever gets done. Hell we could just copy paste the laws the Danes have on renewals of passports. I wish we had danish politicians here.
...she acknowledged in the mention of it that she'd have to get agreement to that from the Russians.
ROFL! Good luck with that.
It appears that AQ was feeling a little left out. I have heard that the bombing in Mali is being attributed to them. Lovely. Rival terrorist groups competing for media attention.
On that note, it's time for my nap...
Re: Paris
The perps are mostly down; their phones are rounded up. The results are in. They were not using ‘dark’ communications. The reason our spooks didn't pick up any pre-attack chatter to and from Da’esh in the Middle East is there was no pre-attack chatter to and from Da'esh in the Middle East. The op was planned out of Belgium. Hollande insists it was ordered out of Da’esh territory in Syria. I suppose that much may be true. (Or, maybe not.) But it was planned out of Belgium.
More deserter stories; WaPo has a long interview/historical based on the tales of a deserter from Da’esh's media/propoganda division. (Be warned, it's fairly long.)
Long but interesting read about women joining Daesh aand then escaping:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/22/world/middleeast/isis-wives-and-enforcers-in-syria-recount-collaboration-anguish-and-escape.html?_r=0
I do note that atrocities were seemingly A-OK until they hit home base. My sympathy is quite low, I must say.
The Russians have stepped up their air campaign, but American military sources say they're still hitting primarily native Syrian rebels instead of Da’esh targets and Turkey has summoned the Russian Ambassador to listen to Turkish complaints that the Russians are targeting ethnic Turkmen villages where no Da’esh may be found. BBC
Finally got a chance to finish Part Four of the ISIS series. It does reinforce the questions that have been raised on the relationship between Turkey and Daesh.
I think if people would stop the double dealing this whole situation would improve. I am thinking Erdogan has a lot to answer for.
"It does reinforce the questions that have been raised on the
relationship between Turkey and Daesh."
You doubted me on that?
"I am thinking Erdogan has a lot to answer for."
The problem, of course, is coming up with the leverage to make him answer for anything.
¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
$20 per barrel oil?
"The world is running out of storage facilities for surging supplies of
oil and may soon exhaust tanker space offshore, raising the chances
of a violent plunge in crude prices over coming weeks, experts have
warned."
Telegraph
Lee: "$20 per barrel oil?"
Very interesting. I read that the global oil industry has shed 250K jobs so far since the prices started to drop. Iw we get $20 per barrel there will be worse to come.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-20/global-oil-and-gas-job-cuts-top-quarter-million-with-more-on-way
I have to say I could never have imagined shale oil playing such a big role just a few years ago. I wonder how resilient the industry is in terms of accessible reserves.
They finally transferred my Dad to rehab on Sunday. I am cautiously optimistic.
My co-worker paid $1.84 for gas today.
I can't see those kinds of low oil prices helping exporting countries much either.
OPEC was slow to understand the rising threat posed by the US shale industry. It may now have misjudged its resilience. Frackers have been quick to cut costs with multiple pad-drilling, and they can revive production relatively quickly as soon as prices recover.
Goldman Sachs said the deeper the fall in oil prices over coming months, the sharper the rebound later, comparing it to the cycles after 1986, 1988, and 1998.
OPEC needs a higher price to fund the social welfare nets and defence spending of its members. The great question is whether US shale will snap back within months and regain its market share as soon as OPEC tries to test the waters again`. This strategic showdown may end in an inconclusive draw.
The difference between the frackers and the oil welfare states is that the first may lose jobs but the second may lose the stability they need to survive. They can only hope it turns out to be a draw.
Turkey just shot down a Russian jet at the Turkish Syrian border. The Russians say the plane was in Syrian airspace (but are not sounding all that convinced) and the Turks say the plane flew into Turkey and was warned 10 times.
This is from the Turkish military supposedly showing the planes flight path:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CUkdnCuW4AAxX9L.png:large
I see no reason to doubt that information. The Russian pilots were probably either careless or way too overconfident in their brinkmanship towards Turkey. One of then reported dead, the otherone probably taken captive by local Turkmen forces.
Brave jihadists shooting at helplesss russian pilot as he decends in a parachute:
https://youtu.be/GPmmtrMJyHs
Probably a breach of the 3:d Geneva convention, although no one expects jihadists to bother about those, or even know about them.
A clip agllegedly showing Jihadists blowing up a Russsian rescue helicopter looking for their pilots, using a US-made TOW:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=20f_1448376623
Not sure how true that one is to be honest. Looks staged and possibly cut together from two separate incidents. Could be just two separate cams though.
Pretty interesting:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/syria-arming-the-rebels/
About how the US trains "moderate" rebels in Syria.
The jist of it: you have no idea whether they're moderates, ad even if they are they're not enough.
I just saw that about the Russian jet being shot down by Turkey. I can't help but feel that we are seeing two men who are exactly alike butting heads. This makes things more difficult.
I also read about the Russian helicopter being shot at. From what I read it was forced down in Syrian government loyalist territory. And, yes, by forces that are being supplied by the US.
There is also some kind of hostage situation in a northern French town near Belgium. No details yet.
This is a rather good article from The Economist.
THE assault on Paris by Islamic State (IS) on November 13th was an attack on life’s innocent pleasures. The terrorists shot anyone who strayed into their gunsights—ordinary mecs out for a gig, sharing a drink, or watching a football friendly. It could have been any big city. It could have been you.
The deadly grasp of IS now reaches far from its base in Syria and Iraq. A day before Paris, suicide-bombers killed 43 people in Lebanon. Last month, 224 died when a bomb destroyed a Russian aircraft over Egypt. IS has spread death across the Middle East and north Africa. This week it pledged to kill Crusaders in Washington and beyond.
I'll have to check out your links later, Marcus.
"I just saw that about the Russian jet being shot down by Turkey."
Just noticed that myself. (I've been off attending to family matters since early Sunday morning--this particular wing of the family still inhabits a pre-internet cultural environment. I seem to have a few things to catch up on.)
Marcus, it seems they can't squeeze any more immigrants into Malmo, not even to sleep on the streets. It's enough to make a deputy prime minister cry.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/sweden-asylum-seekers-refugees-policy-reversal
Fairouz was eighty last Saturday!
I see that the state of play with the hoped for coalition against Da’esh has gotten has gotten a bit tricky over the past couple of days. I have little doubt but that Hollande was hoping to carry some concessions from ‘The West’ to Putin tomorrow, but I'm still wondering if he got anything from Obama to add to his pile of presents to Putin. It's too early to know if Obama's fairly implacable rhetoric was an indication of where he's really willing to go or not.
Meanwhile Hollande's meeting with Merkel and David Cameron prior to the last leg of his tour, which I presume he intended to culminate in a grand presentation of the fruits of his diplomacy to Putin. Merkel's incliniation would have been to send presents; Cameron probably less so inclined.
I gotta admit, there are too damn many irons in the fire for me to have any degree of confidence in making any predictions just yet. Erdoğan, Merkel, and Hollande all have multiple interests they'd like to advance and I don't know that they can predict each other, much less guess what Putin will do when he evaluates whatever presents Hollande might be bringing. About the only thing I feel safe in predicting is that when Putin is unsure of the terrain, he's inclined by nature to try to grab more terrain, and his most likely response (after Hollande leaves Moscow) will be aggressive, intended to gain political ground while other national leaders are trying to sort out their available options. Putin strikes me as a ‘grab first; sort later’ type of guy.
"…a[n]d even if they are [moderate] they're not [moderate] enough."
Got that right. The so-called ‘moderate’ Syrian Sunni Arab rebels are mostly ’moderate’ only in comparison to Da’esh's over-the-top radicalism. Our resurgent neo-cons are way too eager to gloss over the very real likelihood that victory by their chosen proxies in Syria would very likely result in vicious massacres against all Syrian ethnic groups not Sunni Arabs. (Except maybe the Kurds who may or may not have their bluff in on the Syrian Sunni Arabs.)
Pete: "Marcus, it seems they can't squeeze any more immigrants into Malmo, not even to sleep on the streets. It's enough to make a deputy prime minister cry."
She's a complete lunatic that one and not only on migration issues. She's also deputy PM in name only and if our PM was ever unable to act as PM she would not get to step in but the Social Democrats has a backup in store, the real deputy PM. The Social Democrats know she and the Greens are de facto insane and would never let her be acting PM even for a short time. But they need a coalition partner to have a big enough block to form a government.
It's not only Malmö that's full but Sweden. The new great idea is to fill passenger ships with refugees in our docks. And to remove building permit restrictions to get tent cities up fast. Yeah, they're gonna like that.
The problem also is that lack of "recources" isn't merely, as some seem to have thought, solved by throwing money at a problem. We lack everything now. Housing, schools, teachers, hospital beds, doctors, etc, etc.
Well, you can probably guess that from the politicians we have and when you se them, the most insane and ideologically blinkered kind imaginable, doing a complete 180 like this you know it's bound to be really, really bad.
Feels shitty because there are many here who've been standing on ddeck screaming "ICEBERG!!!" at the top of our lungs for quite some time, but they just had to run the course at increasing speed and ram the damn thing and sink the ship.
"U.S. President Barack Obama spoke to Erdogan by phone Tuesday
and ‘expressed U.S. and NATO support for Turkey's right to defend
its sovereignty,’…"
CNN
So, as a NATO member we're obliged to support Erdoğan's Turkey, while they provide assistance to Da’esh, against Putin's Russia, while they provide assistance to Assad. I'm having a little trouble seeing the inherent wisdom of bein’ in that position. I think I shall remind Lynnette of my theory that we really shouldn't be in NATO anymore on account of our defense interests don't match up well with those of our ersazt allies across the Atlantic.
Updated news about the turkish shoot down of a russian plane:
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/066bc52167e844bb9f5732d8650b0b35/report-turkey-shoots-down-warplane-over-airspace-intrusion
"Turkey said its fighter pilots acted after two Russian Su-24 bombers ignored numerous warnings that they were nearing and then entering Turkish airspace. In a letter to the U.N. Security Council and Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Turkey said the Russian warplanes violated its airspace "to a depth of 1.36 miles and 1.15 miles ... for 17 seconds" just after 9:24 a.m."
It seems the russian plane flew over a sliver of turkish territory protuding into Syria, and that the overflight took 17 seconds in all. The turkish jets claim to have warned the russians they were approaching turkish airspace, the russians seem to deny that (the truth is probably in the middle - as in warning calls were made but not the 10 warning calls the turks claim).
The turkish F16:s seem to have fired when the russian jet was in turkish airspace but once the missiles reached and struck the russian plane it was already about 1 km back into Syria and it crashed 4 km into syria.
It's a VERY dramatic thing to do for Turkey to fire on a russian plane for such a small thing as a 17 second overflight, in a case where it's very clear that the russian planes had no intention of actually attacking in turkish territory.
It's of course also either careless or arrogant from the russian side to not make sure they stick to the right side of the border.
But the normal thing would be for the turkish planes to show force by simply appearing or possibly firing signal shots. To launch a missile after a plane about to imminetly leave their territory is extremely harsh.
Lee: "So, as a NATO member we're obliged to support Erdoğan's Turkey, while they provide assistance to Da’esh, against Putin's Russia, while they provide assistance to Assad. I'm having a little trouble seeing the inherent wisdom of bein’ in that position."
I read the US reaction so far as one trying to de-escalate things. Which I 100% agree with. I wouldn't be surprised if Turkey, even though they get the mandated public support a NATO member is due, also get a behind the scenes slap across the face for being too reckless here.
"It seems the russian plane flew over a sliver of turkish territory
protuding into Syria…"
We might note that the Turks just waltzed in and seized that property right out from under a Syrian flag back when Bashar's pappy Assad was running Syria, and then unilaterally declared it annexed to Turkey. The Syrians have never accepted the seizure and claim it's still Syrian territory.
Oh, and I'd been meaning to make this point, but forgot to include it…
Erdoğan will now feel he has a freer hand to challenge American air power deployed in support of the Kurds perhaps; I suppose the dynamics of that need no explanation once one has already come to the realization. That new freedom will last at least until Putin manages to surprise Erdoğan with some move Erdoğan didn't think to be afraid of.
Lee: "Erdoğan will now feel he has a freer hand to challenge American air power deployed in support of the Kurds perhaps; I suppose the dynamics of that need no explanation once one has already come to the realization. That new freedom will last at least until Putin manages to surprise Erdoğan with some move Erdoğan didn't think to be afraid of."
I think you're right. First of all this incident won't pit the US against the Russkies and make the US stop bombing Erdogans sweethearts.
Second the Russkies WILL retaliate against Turkey for this. Putin might be a sonofabitch but he's a smart and vindictive sonofabitch and he'll make Erdogan pay dearly.
My best guess here is Erdgan, the would be sultan, very much overstepped.
For that matter the NATO deal was with his secular nationalist predecessor and I'm not so sure the rest of NATO are very thrilled with his expansionist Islamism at all. Erdogan may be on thin ice here. There is after all a secular "deep state" in Turkey which is lying low but waiting for a chance to topple the islamist Sultan.
One thought: what about the russians using non government entities to arm the PKK? That could mean serious internal strife in Turkey. And it would be pretty much spot on when it comes to the proxy-warfare that seems to be the prefferred way these days.
"One thought: what about the russians using non government entities…"
I think the Kurd's newly empowered political party will want to try to make a deal with Erdoğan. The PKK would have had a real hard time sucking it up and allowing negotiations with Erdoğan if the HDP had been boxed out of the Turkish National Assembly in those last elections, but the PKK, no less than the Syrian YPD and the Iraqi Kurds, has a serious pragmatic streak in them.
I'd be more inclined to believe that the PKK and the HDP party would leak the news of any approach by Putin in an effort to get a better deal via negotiating with Erdoğan. But that's just my first guess.
"But that's just my first guess."
And there are way too many irons in the fire for me to be really confident of anything. Way too many ways for shit to start to go all kinds of squirrelly sideways in this neighborhood in the immediately foreseeable future.
Stratfor analysis of probable Russian responses to the shoot-down Open to the Public, not always the case over there anymore. The last two paragraphs are the meat of the matter; everything before that is just preamble.
Way too many ways for shit to start to go all kinds of squirrelly sideways in this neighborhood in the immediately foreseeable future.
Sheesh! You can say that again! I never saw that shootdown of the Russian fighter by Turkey coming. I'm wondering if Erdogan wasn't sending a message that he is not at all happy with Putin's propping up Assad. It's like watching two billy goats butting heads.
Marcus,
I watched the video of the arming of Syrian rebels the other night. It was from 2014, so I'm not sure how things are being done now.
Fairouz was eighty last Saturday!
I only got a chance to listen to a little bit right now. Very nice. I will listen to more later. She looks very good for eighty! ;)
Erdoğan will now feel he has a freer hand to challenge American air power deployed in support of the Kurds perhaps;
Or not. It's one thing to challenge an opponent in this game of chess, another to challenge an ally. If Erdogan didn't want us flying around over Syria he'd never let us use a base in Turkey to fly from.
"If Erdogan didn't want us flying around over Syria he'd never let us
use a base in Turkey to fly from."
I'd expect revocation of that permission to be the first warning, not necessarily the final step.
Here is an interesting Op Ed piece on China that was in my paper today.
In China, trouble is brewing
Napoleon said: “Let China sleep; when she wakes she will shake the world.”
China is awake.
There is some possible insight into the recent stock market activity in China, relating to the country's internal affairs.
Marcus?
I don't know if you noticed, but Zeyad responded to your question in that prior comments section.
Hey gang, Jeffrey here. I'm teaching in China right now, under contract at an international program until next summer. The city is called Jinhua, about two hours south of Shanghai by high-speed train.
Today, because it's Thanksgiving, I set aside a couple class sessions to eat snacks and play a card game called 500 (a mix of euchre and bridge) that I used to play with friends years ago. We had some laughs along with a few surprising rounds of hands -- and no family fights or distended bellies from turkey.
It's pretty amazing how much China has improved since I was last here. And it's nice to be in a place that is moving forward and not backward (like the Middle East).
I'm going to read through the comments now and see if I have anything to add. From a distance, I can only say that the Middle East is a really depressing place.
Oh, and of course, Happy Thanksgiving to all the Merkins -- even the Sheriff.
Hey Jeffrey!
Nice to see you are still checking in.
I have never been to China. Although I have a couple books on it, which I haven't had a chance to read yet. lol! If you get a chance stop in again and give us your thoughts on the country and its people. I have a feeling that it is a country going along a path that may prove challenging for us in the future.
500? Oh, I remember that. My relative always used to play it. I never got into it, choosing to play something like Widow's Wist when I was a kid, or poker as an adult.
I tend to agree that the Middle East right now is very depressing. And it is spilling over into other areas of the world.
Happy Thanksgiving to you too!
Lee: "I think the Kurd's newly empowered political party will want to try to make a deal with Erdoğan. The PKK would have had a real hard time sucking it up and allowing negotiations with Erdoğan if the HDP had been boxed out of the Turkish National Assembly in those last elections, but the PKK, no less than the Syrian YPD and the Iraqi Kurds, has a serious pragmatic streak in them.
I'd be more inclined to believe that the PKK and the HDP party would leak the news of any approach by Putin in an effort to get a better deal via negotiating with Erdoğan. But that's just my first guess."
That does sound like a probable course. And I agree, the Kurds seem to be quite pragmatic. I guess they have had to learn to be that given the problematic (to say the least) neighborhood they're in.
Jeffrey,
Hi there, good to see you're still around.
"Hey gang, Jeffrey here. I'm teaching in China right now, under contract at an international program until next summer. The city is called Jinhua, about two hours south of Shanghai by high-speed train."
I'm sure you have much more you could tell us. A longer comment om your impressions and experiences, or even a blog post on the matter if you could email it to Lynnette, would be quite interesting.
"It's pretty amazing how much China has improved since I was last here. And it's nice to be in a place that is moving forward and not backward (like the Middle East)."
My mother came back from a 4 week vacation in China (3 weeks) and Vietnam (1 week) this Tuesday and she was astonished by the progress and modern state China is in. She remarked that in many ways they're catching up to the west and in some cases (public transportation was mentioned) they seem to have surpassed us.
Myself my only visit to China (Guangzhou) was in 2008 and my main impression was the huge scale of the construction going on there. It was quite astonishing and on scale hunderds of times larger than anything I've seen in small Sweden. But I wouldn't say they were close to western standards over all. It was very mixed from extreme luxoury to outright poverty - not desperate starvation style poverty but still poverty.
How's teaching there? I would assume you get attentive and diciplined students, or?
Lynnette:
"Here is an interesting Op Ed piece on China that was in my paper today."
A quote from that article:
"Two incidents put the party’s case for resistance to foreigners. One was a fictitious boxing match around 1840 where our handsome, decent and stoic Chinese Kung-Fu master quickly bested a Japanese samurai, an American fisticuff champion and a Russian “bear” of a bully."
C'mon. Look at how Hollywood depicts the "bad guy" over time. At one point it was always the Russian, then the European or drugsmuggling hispanic, then the Ayrab more recently. Fact is that the movie industry will ALWAYS cater to the predjudices of their core audience, no matter the country. Would you expect the Chinese movie industry to have a caucasian hero that fights chinese triads?
That stuff is universal.
So OK there can be government propaganda in the movie industry especiially in times of war. Just look at the WW2 era films and cartoons from Hollywood.
But fact is that it's the normal state of a film industry to depict the local guy who the ticket buyers most identify with as the hero and the "outsider" as the villain.
New info on the attack on the Doctors without Borders a/k/a Médecins Sans Frontières, in Kunduz, Afghanistan, from the NYT
"The medical facility was misidentified as a target by U.S. personnel
who believed they were striking a different building several hundred
meters away where there were reports of combatants."
Gen. John F. Campbell, ranking American officer in Afghanistan
"Calling the airstrike a ‘tragic mistake,’ General Campbell read a
statement announcing the findings of the investigation, which he said
concluded that ‘avoidable human error’ was to blame, compounded by
technical, mechanical and procedural failures. He said another
contributing factor was that the Special Forces members in Kunduz
had been fighting continuously for days and were fatigued.
"General Campbell and his staff did not say how many people were
being disciplined, or how. But a senior United States military official,
speaking on the condition of anonymity, said one of those punished
was the Army Special Forces commander on the ground in Kunduz
during the fighting. The official would not identify the commander by
name but said the officer, a captain, was relieved of his command in
Afghanistan on Wednesday morning."
It seems our military may still find it difficult to discipline people for these sorts of errors any higher up than the rank of captain. Maybe that's as high as the responsibility goes in this particular case, or, maybe not. It's hard to accept that theses sorts of errors seem to always be the fault of people of captains and those down the chain of command from captain. Although, captains and lieutenants and sargeants and such do have greater autonomy and responsibility in the American military than they do in most foreign military organizations. (Although, Abu Ghraib was an institutional failure and they quietly busted officers clear up to and including Gen. Sanchez, the ranking officer in Iraq at the time.)
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"The best laid schemes o’ of mice and men gang aft a-gley"
"With the [Trump] denial fading, Gerson asks, ‘Is it possible, and
morally permissible, for economic and foreign policy conservatives,
and for Republicans motivated by their faith, to share a coalition with
the advocates of an increasingly raw and repugnant nativism?’
"The answer appears to be ‘yes.’ As much as they want Trump
vanquished, the problem for the other Republicans in the field is that
they’ve all pledged to back the GOP nominee, no matter who wins."
The New Republic
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And, in what I'd call a point that probably needs to be repeated for emphasis at regular intervals…
"In other words, the argument that we shouldn’t be demonizing Syrian
refugees and Muslims in general isn’t just moral or political—it’s
tactical. One after the other, the experts who actually study the
psychology of terrorism and ISIS agree that anti-Muslim and
anti-Syrian refugee rhetoric and actions only alienate moderate
Muslims and further the agenda of ISIS. They’re not saying this
because of any party affiliation or ideology. They’re saying it because
it’s a fact."
The Daily Beast
I'll get it right eventually:
""The best laid schemes o’ mice and men gang aft a-gley"
There; that's better.
Marcus,
But fact is that it's the normal state of a film industry to depict the local guy who the ticket buyers most identify with as the hero and the "outsider" as the villain.
Oh, sure. Every country will have their own hometown hero.
What I found interesting was this bit:
Two insiders told me privately that this summer’s fall in China’s stock market prices had been intentionally engineered. This has not yet made the news outside of China.
There is, apparently, a bitter and relentless power struggle going on between the faction of the new president, Xi Jinping, and the faction of the old president, Jiang Zemin. The Xi faction is moving to remove from power members of the Jiang faction.
So the Jiang faction responded by using cash balances of the state enterprises they controlled to short the stock market and pop the bubble of rising prices to puncture Xi’s reputation for successful promotion of China’s economic growth.
Thus, Xi is under intense political pressure to shore up his support and his power. One tactic now being put to use is to promote himself as the defender of China’s honor, preventing humiliation at the hands of foreign powers. Taking over the South China Sea and pushing the Americans into strategic retreat sadly meet his immediate personal needs to be accepted as China’s “big boss.”
If true it would seem that China has some internal problems that could prove problematic for the world.
...anti-Muslim and
anti-Syrian refugee rhetoric and actions only alienate moderate
Muslims and further the agenda of ISIS.
That should be obvious. But unfortunately people are very good at letting their fear rule their thinking.
Marcus,
Like your mother, I too was surprised by the new construction projects everywhere. The Shanghai subway was bright, clean, and fast, and the new central train station was fantastic -- brand-new, filled with shops and packed restaurants, tiled floors, bright lights, people rushing everywhere. China awake, to be sure.
I haven't been out traveling very much yet (too busy teaching), so I'll have to wait to give you any more updates. However, a week or so after I arrived, I was invited to a three-day trip with an education company that works with my school and we stayed at a five-star hotel on Thousand Island Lake, a couple hours from Jinhua. Man, it was nice. And this place was for CHINESE tourists. I was one of the few foreigners there. At seven they opened the breakfast buffet, which had tons of wonderful food (Chinese and Western) that I sampled, along with multiple cups of strong coffee, for the three hours it was open each day.
Zhejiang Province, where I am, is one of the wealthier provinces. A LOT of people have cars, but it's a mixed picture (as you remarked in your comment above). There are also lots of people on electric scooters (at least 90 percent of the scooters are electric, by the way). And of course, a few people still use bicycles.
Remember me telling you about blackouts in Buenos Aires? Yeah, a country blessed with an abundance of oil and a manageable population, but they suffer from rolling blackouts each summer. Here in China, I haven't experienced one electrical outage.
I've got a hardworking, respectful group of students, but the other teachers have complained about some of their classes being plagued with immature, disruptive students. I'm happy not to have any of that type. I'm getting my students ready for what they can expect in an American university. So far, so good.
I read the article about China, but I have no idea what to say. It doesn't connect to the reality of China as I experience it here in Jinhua. That doesn't mean that it isn't true -- or partially true -- but it only means that right now I can't even start to evaluate his claims. The only thing I will say is that the Maoist period, when China retreated from engagement with those outside, was a complete anomaly for this country. In Asia, China has always been the dominant force, and I do see that the Chinese people are happy to be back in their old leadership position. All the countries around them are puny in comparison.
Here's a factoid for perspective. My city, Jinhua, which I had never heard of before I got this job, has a population of between 4 and 5 million people. In the US, that would make it the SECOND-largest city, just behind New York. The province of Shandong has 80 million inhabitants, about the same as the largest country in Europe, Germany.
Of course, as I'm sure everyone here has discussed, China has issues that will have to tackled in order to keep the population moving forward. Can the Communist Party guide them successfully? It's possible, but they better pray (to Buddha) for wise leaders.
I've been reading a lot lately about how Putin will somehow find a way to strike back at Erdoğan for the downing of that Russian plane.
A contrarian idea has begun to take hold with me. (I guess this should come as no surprise to some.) And, here's how it goes…
Putin was just showing off. There was no real reason for him to have his airplanes constantly invading Turkish air space except just to show he could do it and get away with it and everybody was afraid of him, even Erdoğan. When he gets over being pissed about getting slapped back, he's gonna realize that there was no strategic nor tactical need for taking that extra mile or so of airspace over Turkey. He was just showin’ off.
The only benefit it brought him was the good feeling of showin’ off and gettin’ ‘way with it.
After he gets over being pissed he's gonna figure out that getting in a real fight just to vindicate his ‘right’ to piss in somebody else's front yard just for the fun of it ain't really worth the fight.
In the end, he ain't gonna do squat.
He tweaked Erdoğan and Erdoğan slapped him for it. It's over.
Gas @ $1.73 per gallon.
The Russians are making a point of telling the world that Erdoğan has requested a side meeting with Putin during the Paris climate summit. Politico.com
"…western boots on the ground in Syria is the ultimate Isis dream.
Instead of mainly killing Muslims, they are desperate to live out their
imaginary apocalyptic showdown between good and evil, in which
they can at last fight against the US, the UK and France – on the
ground."
TheGuardian
Jeffrey, interesting all. Most was more or less what I would have expected except this:
"There are also lots of people on electric scooters (at least 90 percent of the scooters are electric, by the way)"
Really? It was some time since I visited China (2008 as I said) and I then only got a glimpse of it. But I have visited South East Asia, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia every year since 2002.
There cars, esecially in Thailand, are more and more frequent but the trusted scooter remains the main form of transportation. And I have rented a scooter on several of my visits and see how handy and affordable it is. But I have never ever seen an electric scooter in SEA. The Honda reigns supreme with some other Japanese models also in use and they are all gasolie propelled. You get great mileage on the fuel consuemed too.
Could you expand on the electric scooters in China? How long can you travel on a battery charge? I assume it would require charging stations just about everywhere for it to work, or? How does one pay for charging the battery in a spot that's not ones own home?
Because if it is as you say that 90% of scooters in China (which I actually doubt because it seems unimaginable) are electric that is bound to spread, and first of all spread in the region.
Erdogan expresses regret over shooting down the Russian plane:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/E/EU_TURKEY_RUSSIA?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2015-11-28-06-19-18
Lee: "He [Putin] tweaked Erdoğan and Erdoğan slapped him for it. It's over."
Not yet. I imagine Putin will want some sort of high profile revenge first. Then it's over.
I imagine the turkmen "rebels" in the north of Syria and civvies living in that area will suffer the most. We can probably expect Russia to bomb that area something fierce.
"We can probably expect Russia to bomb that area something fierce."
Fairly low profile revenge ya got called up there.
"Erdogan expresses regret…"
‘Regret’ ya say? I's under the impression Putin was demandin’ a full on apology. (And, I's probably too oblique with my point about the Turkmen, which is that Putin was already lookin’ to bomb their villages into rubble anyway.)
Gas @ $1.73 per gallon.
You for me beat. It was $1.82 yesterday when I bought it.
Looks like Putin is slapping sanctions on Turkey for the shoot down of the plane.
You talkin’ serious sanctions? ‘Cause what I've seen mentioned so far have been mostly for show.
If this guy is right, we may actually get an agreement out of the Paris climate meeting; actually getting an agreement is something they haven't accomplished since Kyoto, which agreement nobody followed through on anyway.
It sounds like this agreement, if agreement it ends up being, will be just as useful as Kyoto.
Wall Street Journal makes the claim that the U.S.A. and the EU are pressing Turkey to seal its border with Syria.
I wouldn't be surprised.
I was working on a post last night, but then decided I might go in a different direction with it, so ended up deleting it. Have to think about it a bit.
Marcus,
One of my co-teachers has an electric scooter, so I asked him about your questions. He's traveled around China a bit, and he says that everywhere he's gone almost all scooters are electric. People plug them in at home, and they can also get them charged at any shops that sell that brand. He parks his scooter downstairs just outside our building. He bought an extension cord at a hardware store, so he now runs the cord from an outlet inside the stairway out the door to the scooter to recharge the battery. On one charge, he can ride back and forth to a local mall for shopping about five times before recharging.
I have seen a few gas-engine motorcycles, but all the scooters I've seen (and they're the standard mode of transportation for a lot of people).
And yes, as you said, Southeast Asia is completely different. There the four-stroke gas engine (even a few two-stroke) is the engine of choice. I can't even remember seeing electric scooters in Thailand, Vietnam, or Indonesia.
I saw your message a few days ago, but I wasn't able to respond because the wifi in this building has been very slow. The Great Firewall of China, it seems, slows down everything digital here.
Marcus,
I have seen a few gas-engine motorcycles, but all the scooters I've seen (and they're the standard mode of transportation for a lot of people).
Oops. Let me finish that sentence.
I have seen a few gas-engine motorcycles, but all the scooters I've seen (and they're the standard mode of transportation for a lot of people) are electric.
Very interesting Jeffrey. And possibly great news too.
I am not completely sold on the vision of turning the global vehicle fleet into electric on environmental grounds just yet. And that's mainly because I have been questioning if the needed raw materials for such a huge volume of batteries is #1 feasible and #2 environmentally sound. Not that I have any solid reasons to speak against electric vehicles, I just see possible choking points and possible environmental hazards.
In any case I have so far believed that the heavier a vehicle is the harder it will be to propell it with electricity (unless of course it's rail borne). So from that point of view the obvious starting point in switching vehicles to electric ones would be the scooter.
What's actually catching on here in Sweden is the traditional bicycle with an added battery pack and a small motor for electric help. I haven't tried one myself but I've been told it's like pedalling a regular bike with the wind in your back all the time. You still pedal it, but the engine senses resistance and increases its contribution if you're going uphill or face head on wind.
Anyway, it was interesting to learn about this electric scooter thing in China. Do continue to keep us updated on developments from the middle Kingdom when you have time to spare.
I haven't tried one myself but I've been told it's like pedalling a regular bike with the wind in your back all the time. You still pedal it, but the engine senses resistance and increases its contribution if you're going uphill or face head on wind.
That sounds great for riding up hills. :)
Yes Lynnette from what I hear from friends they are really great. I know a couple of folks who get to work most days (unless it's pouring down in which case they take the car) using an electric bicycle. They say that since they switched to an electric model they choose the bike much more often than before when they sometimes rode a regular bicycle but most often opted for the car.
Just a few years ago a decent one was priced at $2000 and up. Now you can get one for slightly below $1000 including the battery pack.
A pretty good way to get around and also get an exercise without it becoming a hardship you end up avoiding.
That said, these are people who have both two cars to a family and electric bicycles on top of that. So not really representable for the world as a whole.
Here are some pictures. They look just like regular bicycles ranging from sport bikes to ol' lady bikes:
https://www.google.se/search?q=elektrisk+cykel&espv=2&biw=1366&bih=667&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiO0JP37cLJAhUpjXIKHU_8BLUQsAQIWg&dpr=1
They just have a battery pack, a small electric motor and a simple computer that "decides" how much to help out given the resistance.
They do look rather cool. But, you're right, judging by the price of the one I looked at they aren't going to be bought by the average commuter. And, while I've thought commuting to work by bike might be a neat idea, the impracticalities of it have always given me pause. Now I simply don't have the time to allow for a more time intensive commute.
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