Sunday 19 July 2015

The Land of 10,000 Lakes

I just had to do at least one summer vacation post...

If you are a Minnesotan and it is summer there is a good chance that you may make your way up north to a cabin. It is a ritual that many of us play out every weekend. Some states have oceans, some have mountains, some have deserts, we have lakes. And at some point in time you will spend time at someone's cabin, or a resort.

For me it was my uncle's cabin and it was near Mille Lacs lake, although not on Mille Lacs itself. Every weekend in the summer, and I do mean every weekend, my mom would pack up the food, my dad would check out the camper and my sister and I would gather our bathing suits, fishing rods and any other forms of entertainment we might want to bring and pile into the truck. Our parents would ride up front and my sister and I would ride in the back on homemade couches that made out into a bed that my dad had made. The truck was just a pickup with a homemade camper top on the back. Of course, now you wouldn't be allowed to ride that way, but back then it wasn't a big deal.

The cabin at that time was fairly rustic, no electricity or indoor bathroom, which meant we had to use an outhouse. Oh I well remember the joys of making my way up a rather steep slope and fumbling my way into a tiny, rather smelly, little cubicle of a room. I made quite sure that I used the facilities before I went to bed as making that trek in the middle of the night might cause a close encounter of a bear like kind. :) Seriously.

The lake wasn't very big but it had its fair share of fish, which most of the adults were always intent on catching. While I liked fishing I was one of those kids that got bored quickly if they weren't biting. I did however really enjoy going out in the boat. The best thing about this whole excursion was I got to hang out with my cousins. My uncle had a daughter who was just my age and we would always manage to find something to entertain ourselves with. Anything to do with the lake ranked right up there. So one day we decided to take out the small fishing boat that my uncle had. I think we were about 13 at the time. My cousin, being the generous hostess that she was, gave me a turn at running the motor and steering the boat.  Probably not a wise move on her part, since I had never operated a boat motor before. I was actually doing not too badly until we arrived at the dock and prepared to dock the boat. For some reason, I will never know why, I turned the boat the wrong way and headed into the dock. My cousin seeing what was happening put out her hand to try to stop the boat from crashing into the dock. Bad move. But by then I had seen the error of my way and turned the boat and slowed the engine just enough so that there wasn't any major damage or injury to my cousin's hand. My uncle wasn't too pleased with us though. I give him credit for not scolding too harshly.

While we always stayed at that uncle's cabin I also had another uncle with a cabin on a nearby lake. So we would occasionally stop in and see them while we were up. Their lake was interesting in that on the opposite side from where my uncle's cabin was there was an area that had been left wild. Nothing was built there. On one occasion we were visiting in the evening and sitting around the campfire down on the lake shore. It was dark, the only light that of the campfire, and you couldn't see far beyond its glow. Out across the lake there was a cry, loud and wild. It raised hairs on the back of the neck. You could tell whatever it was wasn't just a dog or cat. Well, actually it did sound like a cat, but more along the lines of cougar or mountain lion. But I don't think either are common to Minnesota. That was the one time, up too close and personal, that I was reminded that we were still in a part of the state where wild things still roamed. I was rather relieved to go back up to the cabin that night.

Scrambling about the woods and building forts was always a must. Roasting hot dogs and marshmallows over the fire were a routine we couldn't miss. Floating around the lake on air mattresses and sitting at the end of the dock watching the rain move across the lake were things to laze away the day.

In our now more fast paced world the memories of those vacations as a child where days passed slowly are a relaxing place to wander off to. We didn't have the constant structured time that is so common now. We made our own entertainment. Sure maybe some of it wasn't the wisest, but we learned from our mistakes. And mistakes are part of growing up.

So if you get a chance this summer, maybe find a lake, or a river, or just a quiet woods and do a little fishing, or swimming, or hiking, or maybe just have a picnic lunch. Because there's something really special about the outdoors. :)







74 comments:

      Lee C.   ―  U.S.A.      said...

 
I'm curious, Lynnette,…  I've been looking for an article critical of the nuclear deal with Iran that wasn't either hysterical (‘OMG, they'll be allowed to have centrifuges’), or that did not purposely misrepresent the terms of the agreement.
So far I've not found one.

Have you?

Marcus said...

Sounds like some nice memories Lynnette. I always loved the outdoors and I always felt a body of water, be it the coast or a lake or a river, was needed to complete the feeling. Not so impressed with the videoclip and that song though.

Marcus said...

Bomb blast in Turkey. The rumors I hear so far is that the victims were a mostly kurdish gathering of mostly students, and that IS is the most likely suspect.

There's a film clip of the actual blast on youtube. Since it was some kind of rally there were apparently lots of cameras:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4NWlWfgzKE

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I've been looking for an article critical of the nuclear deal with Iran that wasn't either hysterical (‘OMG, they'll be allowed to have centrifuges’), or that did not purposely misrepresent the terms of the agreement.
So far I've not found one.

Have you?


No, but then I haven't had much time to look. Perhaps one of the more balanced news outlets will have a well thought out critique.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Not so impressed with the videoclip and that song though.

Lol! Well, it was between that one or the rap one. I've never cared too much for rap music. I liked this one's background scenes better, anyway. :

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The rumors I hear so far is that the victims were a mostly kurdish gathering of mostly students, and that IS is the most likely suspect.

I get the feeling that ISIL have started targeting the Kurds. Possibly a little annoyed at Kobane and other recent events?

Apparently they have no concern about how many people they alienate. Deliberately targeting civilians is just going to fan the flames.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Fanning the flames is likely just what they have in mind.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

  
According to an ABC/WaPo Poll Americans support the recent deal with Iran 57% / 37%.  (Only 35% think it'll work--that Iran won't cheat and try to acquire nukes anyway, but most folks think it's worth givin’ it a shot.)

Therefore, and of course, every major Republican presidential candidate has promised to scrap the deal right out of the box (except Chris Cristie, who's not looking’ likely to make the cut for the first debate, and so arguably is not a major candidate.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It looks like the Ayatollah Khamenei is also roiling the waters. Not sure how much of that is posturing or for real. In any case it doesn't help matters on Iran's end.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I look back on my memories of growing up as a form of relaxation but I wonder what these children will take away from theirs? Assuming, of course, they survive.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Hmmm...strange, I could have sworn I posted this. Oh well, try again.


An interesting analysis of the Iran deal here.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "An interesting analysis…"

It was; he had an unusual if not unique take on the situation.

And the earlier article about the Ayatollah making nasty noises, that's evidence of how independent and powerful the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij have become, the Ayatollah must now bow to them.  (Which leads me to wonder if that's not why he's allowed the negotiations to take place in the first place.)

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Here's another interesting analysis.  This guy's overarching proposition is that we should not be making deals with Iran even if they're they're sensible deals (maybe especially if they're sensible deals) because the Iranians are evil and we should be concentrating on destroying them outright instead of making deals with them.

(At least he's clear on his thinking and he's not trying to misrepresent the deal in order to justify arguments against it.)

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Well, I'm off to see the Wizard…

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

...that's evidence of how independent and powerful the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij have become, the Ayatollah must now bow to them. (Which leads me to wonder if that's not why he's allowed the negotiations to take place in the first place.)

As in to try to rein them in? Perhaps so.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

This guy's overarching proposition is that we should not be making deals with Iran even if they're they're sensible deals...

Hmmm...did you have the right link? I wasn't getting that impression at all. It seemed to be more along the lines of this:

Make no mistake, this deal is just the latest in a series of seismic shocks that are remaking the modern Middle East.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "…did you have the right link?"

Apparently not.  Guess it doesn't matter; I gave away the ending anyway.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lynnette In Minnesota said...

It seems Anonymous is trying to annoy ISIL supporters on the Net.

At least they're trying to do something worthwhile. As far as it goes though. As the one fellow points out we still haven't found a good counter message, which is really what is needed. Hmmm...

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
I've noticed a couple of editorials regarding the recent bombing in Suraç, Turkey.  One by Al-Hurriyat (Israel), and another from the UAE.  Both of them seem eager have Erdoğan finally take ISIS serious as a threat to Turkey.  Neither seem to recognize that Erdoğan considers the Kurds to be the greater threat.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The government should not only increase security measures inside the country and along the border against ISIL and other jihadist groups, but should also stop carrying out a smear campaign against the HDP. Within this framework, and given the fact that Ankara is set to intensify its fight against ISIL, one should be concerned about similar future attacks by ISIL.

Advice worth listening to.

Neither seem to recognize that Erdoğan considers the Kurds to be the greater threat.

He's still fighting the last war. Many people make the same mistake.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Fact or Fiction?

Lol!

Either way it makes for a good story.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

A warning of things to come, perhaps?

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
 
Probably the sanest of the Iran would have folded if we'd just talked a little tougher critiques that I've run across.  Sane; not very convincing, but sane; at least they're not hysterical.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Michael Oren is usually an intelligent read. I read his book Power, Faith & Fantasy a while back.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Life in Aleppo.


I'm thinking that the various Syria rebel groups have more problems than not getting enough weapons from the US.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "I read his book Power, Faith & Fantasy a while back."

So he's used to dealing in fantasy then?  I suppose that explains a lot.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Is an oil crash coming?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

So he's used to dealing in fantasy then? I suppose that explains a lot.

ROFL!

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Fast food worker's minimum wage to go to $15 and hour in New York

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Turkey has finally agreed to allow us to use Incerlik (and another lesser known air base at Diyarbkir) against ISIS.

      "It was unclear what other concessions might have been made by
      the United States to get the deal, but a NATO official said on Thursday
      that ‘the Turks always drive a hard bargain.’
"
      NYT

      "The apparent change of course follows a suicide bomb blamed on
      [the] Islamic State that killed more than 30 people, mostly pro-Kurdish
      activists, in a border town on Monday. Since then, a wave of violent
      reprisals has alarmed authorities and spooked markets, because it
      suggested that the four-year civil war in Syria was spilling into Turkey.
      "The country’s benchmark stock index was the world’s worst
      performer on Thursday, posting a 3.6 percent drop. Bonds and the
      lira also plunged.
"
      Bloomberg

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Not a common read on Obama's presidency:

      "WASHINGTON, D.C. - I’ve never written a column like this. Readers
      rarely believe it, but I am not on any political team. Generosity toward
      the high and mighty isn’t among my few virtues. But this needs to be
      said: Americans are lucky to have Barack Obama as president and
      we should wake up and appreciate it while we can.
      "President Obama will go down in history as an extraordinary president,
      probably a great one.

      "‘Mr. President, on behalf of an ungrateful nation, thank you’"
      Dick Meyer

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There has been a shooting at a movie theater in Lafayette, Louisiana. Multiple injuries reported.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

"The apparent change of course follows a suicide bomb blamed on
[the] Islamic State that killed more than 30 people, mostly pro-Kurdish activists, in a border town on Monday. Since then, a wave of violent reprisals has alarmed authorities and spooked markets, because it suggested that the four-year civil war in Syria was spilling into Turkey.


Perhaps Erdogan has finally realized that there are some things worse than Kurds under the bed?

"The country’s benchmark stock index was the world’s worst
performer on Thursday, posting a 3.6 percent drop. Bonds and the lira also plunged."


Economies hate violence.


Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I see the Republicans are just a tad concerned about the Donald's running as a third party candidate. Yup, I should think that would be a little unsettling. I could see it splitting the party and leaving the race open for a Democratic win.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
I notice that Turkey's done some bombing of its own in addition to rounding up some ISIS members inside Turkey.

Erdoğan's political party suffered serious setbacks in the last election; I suppose this helped him re-think his position in regard to tolerating, even assisting, ISIS.  His position is a little more precarious, and such indulgences are not without consequences, consequences he's less insulated from than before.
We should keep in mind that he's come on board as a reluctant and undependable ally.  It's possible that ISIS will not take well to being betrayed by Erdoğan at this juncture, and he may have to other choices now but to stand against them.  But, if they leave him other choices…

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I have always felt that Erdogan would have to come to realize, if he wanted his government to survive, that ISIL was more of a threat than an ally, even if he sympathized with their Islamic bent. Perhaps he has come to that point. Having said that, from what I have read we do remember Turkey's seeming about face in 2003 when we had thought they would allow movement of our troops through Turkey when we invaded Iraq. They backpedaled on that.

It is starting to seem to me that ISIL has no plan to set up a functioning long lived government. Oh sure, they have Raqqa and Mosul, and in other areas under their control they are imposing a very draconian rule. But from their actions in calling for attacks in other countries, attacking in Turkey, who has hesitated to confront them in the past, and conducting seemingly helter skelter attacks elsewhere I have to wonder if they are not just playing spoiler. That is, trying to provoke others to come after them, or perhaps enacting some sort of revenge for past...er transgressions...by the west, in particular the United States.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

  
      "That is, trying to provoke others to come after them,…"

There's more truth there than you know.  I'm not up on all the details, but I do know they have a whole future history gamed out that involves (among other things) them being attacked from all sides and driven back to a final redoubt near Allepo, Syria.  From there they will counter-attack and, by divine grace or a mass infusion of new martyrs/recruits (or maybe those are the same thing) they will break out and conquer all their enemies.  They have much more in mind than simply setting themselves up a Sunnistan in Syria/Iraq and governing that.  These are apocalyptic end-of-days types of folks.

Marcus said...

Lee: "Erdoğan's political party suffered serious setbacks in the last election; I suppose this helped him re-think his position in regard to tolerating, even assisting, ISIS. His position is a little more precarious, and such indulgences are not without consequences, consequences he's less insulated from than before.
We should keep in mind that he's come on board as a reluctant and undependable ally. It's possible that ISIS will not take well to being betrayed by Erdoğan at this juncture, and he may have to other choices now but to stand against them. But, if they leave him other choices…"

We'll see how honest the turkish "fight" against IS is. There seem to have been some shots fired from the turks and they did grant the US rights to fly sorties against IS from Turkey.

But there's the kurdish thing mudding the waters. Two turkish police officers were killed by the PKK in Ceylanpinar. The PKK took responsibilitty of that attack claiming it was in response to the kurdish victims in Suruç, who were killed by that IS suicide bomber.

So it seems at least some kurds in Turkey (the PKK variety) blame the attack killing 30+ mostly kurds not on IS but on Turkey.

And Turkey did not only fly a few sorties against IS is this new campaign but did also clamp down hard within Turkey with security police forces. Some of those arrested were would be IS jihadists, but others were "terrorist" kurds.

Take all that and mix it with Turkey wanting Assad gone and IS being Assads most capable foe at the moment - well things aren't probably very clear cut.

Marcus said...

It kind of looks like a case of:

"the enemy of my enemys friends enemy is also my friends and maybe my enemy"

Or some such ME chaos.

Marcus said...

Lee: "They have much more in mind than simply setting themselves up a Sunnistan in Syria/Iraq and governing that. These are apocalyptic end-of-days types of folks."

Sure, that's the stated ideology. The one they use to draw recruits into their IS.

But if we are to believe the stories about hard nosed Baathists actually running the show from the shadows there are more aspects to consider.

It might wery well be that the "grand fight" IS foresees and their apocolyps is just for show. And that if they were seriously defeated in that arena they would just melt back into a AQI-type underworld terrorist movement again.

I very much doubt they'd all "stand and fight" regardless of what they claim.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "…well things aren't probably very clear cut."

You might find this interesting:

      "The Turkish problem is this: There are no low-risk moves."
      Stratfor  ―  The Turkish Enigma

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

[Lee}: They have much more in mind than simply setting themselves up a Sunnistan in Syria/Iraq and governing that. These are apocalyptic end-of-days types of folks.

[Marcus]: But if we are to believe the stories about hard nosed Baathists actually running the show from the shadows there are more aspects to consider.

Maybe they are both.

If all of the reporting is to be believed you had a mix of both hard core AQ types and Baathists incarcerated at a prison in Iraq during the war. This includes al-Baghdadi, who was allowed to preach to camp inmates. A rather strange and dangerous mix. They seem to have taken the skills and beliefs of each group and meshed them together in this hodge podge organization to achieve...something. What that something is may vary depending on who you are talking to. And the lower ranking members are probably too afraid of the higher ups to even question any of the orders given or who gives them.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Btw, I see that a former inmate of Gitmo who wrote the book "Innocent at Guantanamo" has been arrested in Belgium on terror charges. He is accused of helping with recruiting fighters for Syria. Guess maybe he should rename the title of his book.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
@ Lynnette,

I noticed the Clinton e-mail ‘scandal’ is a hot topic again this week (even with Donald Trump stalking about).
It occured to me that this got started in the eighth (8th) Congressional investigation of Ambassador Steven's death in Benghazi, Libya (still ongoing).  I don't recall anybody mentioning Benghazi this week.
Then I remembered that Kenneth Starr, the special prosecutor for the so-called ‘Whitewater’ investigation, ran through that topic, then began investigations into topics known as ‘Travelgate’, ‘Filegate’, and even the circumstances of Vince Foster's suicide before settling on investigating Bill Clinton's sexual peccadilloes.

I can't help thinking I notice some similarities.

Marcus said...

Lee: "You might find this interesting"

I did. It was both interesting and made a lot of sense, I thought.

Marcus said...

And in that article I clicked a link and found one even more interesting:

https://www.stratfor.com/weekly/net-assessment-world

I do not agree with all of it but the last two concluding sections I found to be spot on.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I can't help thinking I notice some similarities.

lol!

You mean kind of like a witch hunt? (No slur meant to Hilary with that "witch" label.)

Marcus said...

I read today in a swedish newspaper that Hillary is slippin' at the polls and that not just one but three Republican maybe-runners (not the Donald though) would have her beat if that poll was the election result. Apparently Hillary was deemed untrustworthy, which was the main reason for her downward slide. I have no idea if this has any basis in reality or if it's just sensationalism, but that's what I read. Thoughts on that?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I finally got a chance to read that Turkey article, Lee. A very well researched in depth piece.

The problem is that the worst-case scenario for Turkey is the creation of an independent Kurdish republic in Syria or Iraq. That would risk lighting a touchpaper among Kurds in southeastern Turkey, and regardless of current agreements, could destabilize everything. This is the one thing that would force Turkey's hand. However, the United States has historically had some measure of influence among the Kurds in Iraq and also in Syria. While this influence can be overstated, and while Washington is dependent on the Kurdish peshmerga militias for ground support as it battles the Islamic State from the air, it is an important factor. If the situation grew out of control, Ankara would expect the United States to control the situation. If Washington could and would, the price would be Turkish support for U.S. operations in the region. The Turks would have to pay that price or risk intervention. That is the lever that would get Ankara involved.

So, is the agreement with Turkey for use of the other airbase, and their recent attacks on ISIL a possible sign of something else that has been agreed to? The Kurds have also wanted more Turkish support in their fight against ISIL, so have they agreed to something in exchange? Or has Turkey seen that ISIL's attacks on the Kurds could possibly light that torch they have always been concerned about?


Judging by those leaflets they have been dropping on Raqqa and other areas, it appears the Kurds are set to play a major role.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

I'll have to read that other article, Marcus, a little later. I'm kind of out of time at the moment.

As for Hillary, I think I had read something about her slipping in the polls. Possibly why we've been seeing more of her lately. It will really depend on what happens on the Republican side, I think. The Donald may be popular at the moment, especially for shock value, but he may not stay the course. And if he runs as a third party candidate that could quite possibly split the Republican party, giving the Democrats a clearer field.

The email thing could be an issue with the public if it was found that she revealed classified information. Don't know. The American voter can be hard to pin down. It might be just a case of who survives to the end of the race before they even start to look at who they may vote for. Or if the economy tanks they may blame the Democrats and toss as many as they can, looking for a change.

Gotta run...

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

   
      "I have no idea if this has any basis in reality or if it's just sensation-
      alism, but that's what I read. Thoughts on that?
"

Read this.

                           ¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯¯
      "So, is the agreement with Turkey for use of the other airbase, and
      their recent attacks on ISIL a possible sign of something else that has
      been agreed to?
"

As the earlier article said, the Turks usually drive a hard bargain.  (I did think Friedman glossed over the ISIS threat itself, treating it as a stepchild of conflicts between the nation-states of the region.)

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
More on the Hillary thing…

It's my guess that Hillary is slipping in some early states because the Republicans are campaigning hard in those states (and all of them campaigning more against her than each other).  And she's not responding, and that's taking a temporary toll in those particular places where it's occurring, and those are the polls that're getting your attention.
It's my further guess that she's not responding because she doesn't panic easily--tends to stick to her long-term plan even in the face of attacks--she's been attacked too consistently for too many years; it doesn't frighten her anymore.  (Sticking to the long-term plan was a bad idea for her last time because she let Obama get away from her, but that's still Hillary.)
I'd further guess that the e-mail thing doesn't frighten her because she knows what she did; she knows what was in those e-mails, and there's no there there.  ‘Where's the beef?’ as an earlier (successful) political campaign once put it.  She figures they'll burn out like Benghazi and she'll be fine in the end.  They started that too early to keep it burning ‘til the election without some substance, and my guess is she's not worried ‘cause there's no substance to sustain it.  They'll find nothing ‘cause there's nothing to find.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Post Script:

Friedman also skipped over the changes Erdoğan has created (largely created; helped along at the very least) in the politics and internal power structures of Turkey.  His rule has reshaped the country, how permanently is hard to tell.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
On the subject of Hillary.  Her lawyers have announced that they've agreed to her being questioned by the Benghazi Committee on 22 October.  The Committee seems to dispute that.  (Originally the committee wouldn't agree to open public hearings, a condition Hillary insisted upon, but they seem to have given up on that one, not sure what they're objecting to now.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

You're right, Marcus, that article was very interesting.

The collapse of the Soviet Union put into motion processes that the Cold War institutions could not manage. The net assessment, therefore, is that the Cold War delayed the emergence of realities that were buried under its weight, and the prosperity of the 1990s hid the limits of Eurasia as a whole. What we are seeing now are fundamental re-emerging realities that were already there. Europe is a highly fragmented collection of nation-states. China contains its centrifugal forces through a powerful and repressive government in Beijing. Russia is neither an equal of the United States nor a helpless cripple to be ignored or tutored. And the map of the Middle East, created by the Ottomans and the Europeans, has hidden underlying forces that are rearing their heads.

I agree with all of that, not that I am an expert, but what he says makes sense.

What was in the article that you disagreed with?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Okay, where did it go? I know I left a link to an article here...*sigh*

Okay, I'll have to go find it again, but in the meantime here's something on Turkey and that raid we did on that ISIL oil smuggler.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Erdogan's adviser on Turkey, ISIS & the PKK.

(Hopefully the thing sticks this time.)

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Crimea...a bit of a hairball, perhaps?

Or just business as usual for Putin's Russia?

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "Or just business as usual for Putin's Russia?"

Just business as usual.  In Putin's Russia corruption crackdowns are almost always cover for Putin to install his gang in the place of the old power structures.  I read an article on it last week said the locals who'd been eager for a Russian takeover were being systematically replaced with Putin's Moscow ring under cover of a ‘anti-corruption’ campaign, and were having regrets, too late now.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Little thieves swallowed by big thieves. Makes me a little less sympathetic to Crimea and anyone else who chooses to bite on Putin's bait.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Speaking of thieves and the Ukraine…  I have noticed in passing a couple of items suggesting that the Ukrainian government is making a serious, genuine effort at stamping out the cronyism and corruption that's marked Ukrainian government since its independence from the old Soviet Union.  Nobody's predicting success there yet, but I've seen a couple of reviews that claim they're making a serious and genuine effort.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Corruption is a problem all over. I noticed that Obama made a point of bringing it up in his visit to Kenya. It does nothing but sap the strength of an economy.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Chinese stock market's been takin’ ‘nother hit.  RCP

Marcus said...

Lee: "Chinese stock market's been takin’ ‘nother hit. RCP"

Profit takings by professional investors?

"The Shanghai benchmark had risen about 150 percent by the time it peaked in early June. The gains were originally fired by commentary in state media that called the stock market undervalued. That led investors to believe the government would ensure that stock prices gained. Many small investors jumped into the market near its peak and are now sitting on significant losses."

It's kind of typical in a bubble that first it gets blown way out of proportion, propaganda state or other will try to keep it going, but "smart money" starts to take home significant profits which triggers a collapse and the last ones who jumped on the bandwagon, usually private individuals or pension funds who got caught up in the hype, are the main victims. Because they came aboard late and are reluctant to sell at a loss they hope in vain for a recovery and follow the trend all the way to the bottom - where they sell out of necessity or despair and the "smart money" buy their assets on the cheap.

In China where capitalism is a new thing it stands to reason the swings will be even bigger.

Last weeks temporary recovery was probably the "bull trap" in the trend. I don't have this graph in english but you can still see where the bulltrap is, at the end of the cycle:

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aLbJs4SZ_mw/TfnAYfMd26I/AAAAAAAAF2E/CCalmNkW4kE/s1600/bubblor.png


Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The gains were originally fired by commentary in state media that called the stock market undervalued. That led investors to believe the government would ensure that stock prices gained.

That last sentence is rather telling. As in good luck with that. The stock market is a capitalist entity that doesn't always listen to governments, no matter how hard they try.

I did notice that in the article they said they were trying to stop margin trading.

I also noticed they speculated on when the US was going to raise interest rates. Everyone assumes it will happen, but I was talking to a banker recently and he was saying it's a 50/50 chance.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "The stock market is a capitalist entity…"

There is reason to suspect that the Chinese stock market is rather less of a purely capitalist entity than are most other stock markets in the world.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
@ Lynnette,

Have you been keeping up with the Republicans' editorials on the presidential race of late?  They seem to be rapidly convincing themselves that they can beat Hillary with pretty much anybody on their long list (except maybe Donald Trump).

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

There is reason to suspect that the Chinese stock market is rather less of a purely capitalist entity than are most other stock markets in the world.

:)

Possibly so, but it seems to be reacting a lot like one. I am still waiting for the other real estate shoe to drop.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Have you been keeping up with the Republicans' editorials on the presidential race of late?

I try to avoid all of the mud wrestling until the very end.

They seem to be rapidly convincing themselves that they can beat Hillary with pretty much anybody on their long list (except maybe Donald Trump).

Reading too much into the passing scandals of the moment. Hillary is a tough campaigner. And right now we haven't dug too deeply into the Republican field to look for dirty laundry.

Of course they would leave out The Donald, because they don't like him. Far too controversial. A bit like Jesse Ventura turned out to be. In the beginning he just seemed to be a bit of an eccentric breath of fresh air. We were soooooooo wrong.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
      "Reading too much into the passing scandals of the moment…"

I might have thought the same thing, except I remember how surprised they were when Mitt Romney actually lost to Obama, even though every public poll was telling them that was exactly what was gonna happen.
Which is what caused me to ask if you'd been noticing.  I was wondering:  Is there some sort of pattern response goin’ on with those folks here, like last time?

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

Well, I don't know about pattern response, but I believe the less people really look at all the possibilities (or stick their heads in the sand if you will) the less they are able to come to the more reasonable conclusion. And in this case, it's a long time until election, meaning anything can happen.

   Lee C.  ―   U.S.A.     said...

 
Claims here that the Chinese stock market is on the edge of a major crash, with some supporting numbers.

Lynnette In Minnesota said...

The debt to GDP ratio has already doubled to 260pc since 2007, reaching $26 trillion, more than the US and Japanese commercial banking systems combined.

Wow.

If China's economy tanks, there go commodity prices. How does that affect the recovering housing market in the US? How does that effect oil drilling in the Bakken? How does that affect oil economies like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia etc?